Money Morning UFC TUF Re$ult$ - 12/3/2016

Saturday's UFC TUF results 3-2 + 345.00 

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

To veiw our write ups for this card please see below.  We're peaking as we reach the end of fiscal year 2016. We offer single and multiple card opportunities.

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the home stretch of the 2016 fiscal year for us in the UFC.  This year our win percentage has been down when comparing them to past years and that does not sit well here at GambLou HQ.  Our single point of focus in December is to in a matriculated approach profit for the month and take our decent numbers up to semi-acceptable then turn the page and move to next year.  So with precision focus on the fights let’s start our end of the year run today.  I’ll also state that we appreciate you who pay to view our results and we scour those results carefully.  If we lay an egg for you we’ll deposit another UFC fight card into your account so your dough isn’t lost. 

If you start with us in 2017 and stay with us all year long you will earn money wagering on the UFC. That’s our pledge and we stand behind our words.  Truth.

-Let’s Fight-

Johnson -840 vs. Elliott +660

We believe and have acclaimed Mighty Mouse as the top P4P fighter in the UFC for a number of years now and well before it was as vogue as it is now to.  That said this is the UFC and we also have proclaimed that it is tough to keep taking out top contenders one after one in a row without a tomato can inserted somewhere in between to allow the body and mind to take a bit of a break.  Johnson’s speed, precision, accumulated power coupled with his dynamic abilities on the floor make him a complete and destructive fighting machine.  We're uncomfortable however with his talk of tonight’s after hour’s party and his quest for the most consecutive title defenses in UFC history and while tjose are worthy goals we feel these acknoledgements also contribute to his potential distraction leading into tonight’s fight.  Is Johnson ripe for an upset or even in for a tough grinding fight tonight?  We feel so.

Tim Elliott arrives in the cage the less sophisticated fighter yet the taller, longer southpaw swinger.  Elliott’s style is quite unorthodox for he is a huge fighter for the Flyweight division, is very well rounded in his fight arsenal and relies on his grit, heart and toughness to get his hand raised.   Further and the reason we really like the Kansan tonight is that this is his return to the UFC and he realizes the opportunity to provide for his family doing what he loves as opposed to hitting the want ads.  In his first stint in the organization he was tossed in to tussles with the likes of guys named Makovsky, Benavidez (yes Joe), and Bagautinov and while he got schooled in those fights and was cut the benefits of the experience form those fights and the mentality to get back to the organization for this title fight are not being overlooked by Elliott…in fact they are fueling his belief that this is his time.  In interviews he basically says what we have just spelled out here so we know we’ll get his top effort tonight.  The kid is smart, knows his opportunity and is prepared to go to battle with the hope of bagging the belt.  We believe Elliott shows very well tonight in a matchup that may well show that Elliott belongs at the top of the division.

Elliott +680  (.25 u released 12-2-16)

Fight starts Rd. 5 +105 (released yesterday)

Masvidal -225 vs. Ellenberger +205

Jake Ellenberger found out in his last fight that a desperate aggressive approach to the opponent in the Octagon can reap rich reward.  Jorge Masvidal has been hearing from everyone (including yours truly) that he needs to fight with a sense of urgency.  Now we all know that’s easy for Uncle Louie to say sitting on the sofa watching these professionals compete but the fact remains….the Organization pays for active exciting results that bolsters the Blokes in the bleachers.  Slick, counterpunching split decisions don’t go far for viewers, the ratings or a fighter’s ability to move up in the hierarchy of competition as well as pay.  For all of these reasons I believe we have a perfect storm here for two guys that are going to come out and wing it.    

Fight won’t go Distance +100

Cutelaba -210 vs. Cannonier +190

Cutelaba at 23 years of age is a scary opponent for he pressures opponents, is powerful, fights at a high pace and has proven to be able to take a belt to the beak.  That said he’s in there with a precision power puncher, a guy with experience, movement and most importantly reach.  This fight may come off oddly for Cannonier plays a switch stance while the Hulk is a southpaw.   We believe this could be a good spot for Cannonier as the mauling Moldavian Cutelaba presses forward into Cannonier's counterpunching.  Cutelaba is young and we see this one as a fight where he takes a step forward in the experience category while his opponent takes him to the classroom.

Cannonier +190

Benavidez -190 vs. Cejudo +170

As discussed with Gabriel Morency on MMAMeltdown this past week (on the Fight Network, @Fightnetwork) it’s our opinion that Joseph Benavidez is a more accomplished a mixed martial artist than is Henry Cejudo at this point in time.  Henry’s wresting must be the key for him getting his hand raised tonight and Benavidez, an accomplished wrestler in his own right understands exactly the plan Henry must undertake in order to have any advantage at all.  The premium pricing on the fight makes it unable for us to take a side because we feel Joe is just too much but Joe has been popped on the point before and if Henry can touch him who knows what may transpire?  Upon scouring the props we found an angle that (like the Elliott play tonight in the main event) is a small recreational position.   

Cejudo ITD +1050 (.25 unit)

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UFC FN101 Brunson vs. Whittaker: Middle's mettle in Melbourne - 11/26/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 101 from Australia.  This card offers many fresh fighting faces we have little data on which mandates that today we watch more than wager in order to gain advantage down the line.  Here are a couple mangy mutts that ‘London to a brick’* will offer us their absolute best effort tonight.  We’re betting that our Bitzer’s* bite!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Tuck -135 vs. Brown +125

Brown, the Aussie is a grizzled fight vet having worked the regional Aussie circuit until recently being called up to the UFC.  He displayed tremendous grit and determination in his last victory and while he may have a slight edge over Tuck on the floor we feel the Aussie will be unable to fight the calculated fight preferring to trade leather with a man that is more athletic, larger, faster and skilled than Brown.  Provided Tuck controls the distance and keeps Brown raging inside to exchange this is a fine spot for Tuck.  Tuck opened -185….

Tuck -135 (half)

Camozzi -260 vs. Kelly +240

Camozzi is the younger, longer, taller striker here and deserves to be the chalk.  Kelly standing is no real match for Camozzi for he is not only 39 but fairly premeditated with his striking, slow and plodding.  He does have some power but Kelly’s craft is Judo.  Kelly will look to try to get his hands on the younger faster striker, grind on him, take him against the fence for a fleece on the floor in order to sap the younger man’s energy and convert this fight into a barroom brawl.  Kelly, who just returned from some time off because he was coaching the Aussie Judo team in the Olympics has been training and working with these young men for months and understands the position he is in tonight fighting in front of the home crazies.  We feel that Kelly’s in position to offer his best effort this evening and we feel his top effort is worthy of a half a ‘caterpillar’*.

Kelly +240 (half)

Volkanovski -170 vs Kasuya +160

We know little of the local here except to notice that he is giving away tremendous size to his opponent.  Further this is his UFC debut.  Fightmetric followers will also note that when he hit the scale he was one pound underweight.  Our resources have indicated that Volkanovski is really a 125’er and our scrutiny of him at weigh-ins reinforces that.  He’s a stand up striking machine and will want to come out and hit the Japanese fighter with Sunday shots but we question how much affect those shots will really have against his opponent if they do in fact connect.  Kasuya is not only the larger man; he also has the benefit of experiencing a tough UFC loss against a mighty fighter in Nick Hein so it is our opinion that Kasuya is going to be no easy task.  He’s sure to be focused and a bit desperate to get his hand raised and we handicap this fight with this in mind.  Kasuya will need to get his hands on the striker, take him to the floor and use his grappling to gain control of the fighter and eventually the fight and we feel he will be able to do that….Here’s a little prop on the pup.

Over 2.5 rounds +100 (half)

Brunson -135 vs. Whittaker +125

This is perhaps one of the best fights of the year.  These two men are both top ten fighters in their division and they arrive with plenty of momentum.  We discussed this fight earlier this week on our appearance with Gabriel Morency on MMAMeltdown which airs on Fightnetwork and we’ll share many of those same sentiments now. 

The Kiwi Whittaker fights out of Australia and is a young explosive striker with deadly power.  He advances with unrelenting pressure and is supremely confident.  He makes little beef about the fact that he is there to knock his opponent’s head off of his body.  The opponent Derek Brunson arrives to the Octagon tonight with plenty of momentum and swag of his own.  Brunson has faced a higher level of competition than has Robert.  Brunson will be the larger man in the Octagon with a substantial 4” reach advantage.  He’s a three time DII All American wrestler who’s as capable on the mat as he is standing and striking…plus he has power.  Brunson is also a southpaw which is worthy of mentioning for all of Whittaker’s recent wins have been against right handers and his last loss in April of 2014 was against a man taller, longer and a southpaw in Steven Thompson.  We believe Derek Brunson has more ways to win this fight specifically he’ll need to weather Whittaker’s early fury, eventually take this fight to the floor and wear, grind and maul the striker in order to have his way with him in the championship rounds. 

Brunson -135

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Profitable Sports Gaming

*’London to a brick’ is Aussie slang for most certainly

*bitzer is Aussie slang for a mangy dog

* caterpillar is Aussie slang for a hundred dollar bill


UFC FN 100 Beatdown in Brazil - 11/19/2016

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN’s 99 & 100.  We’ll combine releases for both of today’s cards in one slate thereby offering GambLou Clients a little break on the budget while providing pup’s to pad profitability.  These two cards do not offer the name recognition that the recent UFC 205 card offered but we do believe that there are value’s within each card that can deliver deposits.  Our role is to uncover mangy unwanted Mutts or value’s that the betting market is overlooking.  Here’s our view of today’s UFC FN 100 card.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Usman -200 vs. Alves +185

Usman is a wrestler superior, a grinding relentless pursuer of ground and pound with improving stand up skills and tremendous cardio.  In this fight he catches Warley Alves at the wrong time for Alves is off a loss, fighting in front of his homies and has been hearing about how unimpressive he has been since his arrival in the UFC for weeks now.  Alves has a great submission game, will sport a certain striking advantage and as we say over and over…he’s in a spot to deliver one of his best performances for he knows that he’ll need to be at his best to ward off the unrelenting Nigerian.   We look to Alves victory over a dynamic wrestler in Colby Covington as our basis for thinking that Alves will be able to avoid the take downs and control the pace and distance of this fight ultimately setting him up for the submission attempts and Octagon control.  Worry about Alves cardio has been a topic of criticism but we feel he is keenly aware of how he needs to improve based on his last couple of fights.

Alves +185 (half)

Moraes -150 vs. Ottow +140

On one side of the Octagon stands the Brazilian chalk who has improved striking and lethal grappling/BJJ attack.  Moraes is a bit more one dimensional but he is fighting at home and in a fight we see going into the third round a home cooking advantage must be acknowledged as there is some risk in pursuing the pup here.  Ottow showed very well in his last fight which he took on short notice against a tough durable grinder in Josh Burkman.  Ottow is versed wrestler and can hold his own on the mat yet he does not want this fight to go there for that is Moraes forte.  Instead we see Ottow being able to hold off the grappling attempts of Moraes and gain advantage with stout take down defense and superior stand up striking.  This should be a great encounter. 

Ottow +140 (half)

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UFC FN 99-100 Breakfast in Belfast then Beatdown in Brazil - 11/19/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN’s 99 & 100.  We’ll combine releases for both of today’s cards in one slate thereby offering GambLou Clients a little break on the budget while providing pup’s to pad profitability.  These two cards do not offer the name recognition that the recent UFC 205 card offered but we do believe that there are value’s within each card that can deliver deposits.  Our role is to uncover mangy unwanted Mutts or value’s that the betting market is overlooking.  Here’s our view of today’s UFC FN 99 card.  We’ll have UFC FN 100 up later today.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

UFC FN 99:  Mousasi vs. Hall II

Lee -120 vs. Mustafaev +100

Mustafaev is not a typical Russian fighter as he is not deeply versed in Sambo and grappling ability rather he comes equipped with tremendous striking acumen, power and a granite chin. He’ll want to press Lee in order to get inside and work the body then bring it to the beak of the younger more athletic Lee.  Kevin Lee will have a significant reach advantage here as well he’ll be the quicker fighter with greater athletic advantage.  All that said Lee will need to make certain he does not exchange with the Russian, he’ll need to be fluid and force the raging bull to become reckless and become desperate in his attempts to get inside and bang.  This will allow Lee to be able to time his takedown attempts with Mustafaev’s bull rushes to get inside which will allow the takedown to become much easier to accomplish for this fight needs to get to the floor for Lee to have success.  Lee must stay away from stand up exchanges for the Russian’s power is real and Lee’s beak is breakable.  Lee will need to focus on movement in order to frustrate the banger and thereby haul him to the floor for a maul on the matt when the timing is correct.  This fight will be determined by where it takes place.  We’re looking for an ugly fight with two fools flopping on the floor.  Kevin Lee is keenly aware that this is his best path to victory…..now it’s time to execute.

Lee -120 (half)

Johnson -145 vs. Volkov +135

Recent study on the Russian Volkov presents us with a better understanding of him in since we spoke with Gabriel Morency on MMA Meltdown this week.  Volkov is the much taller, longer man, he’s younger and what he lacks in floor capability he does seem to be able to overcome with improving take down defense, reach, athleticism and power.  Johnson’s perhaps the better-rounded fighter but Volkov has more of an upside in the UFC in our estimation and he surely understands his opportunity here.  Volkov, the former Bellator Heavyweight Champ opened -150 for this tilt and now the market presents us value in that we can ride with the Russian at an underdog rate.

Volkov +135 (half)

Pearson -105 vs. Ray -105

Stevie Ray caught our eye when he was +150 at opening of this fight but the steady flow of dough on the Scotsman has us thinking that the parlay playing pukes are underestimating the grit and desperation of Pearson in this spot.  Sure he’s been overly active lately but his sheer determination, his desperation to remain in the organization and the tremendous move of money in this fight has us believing that Pearson with his experience, guile and a keen realization that if he loses he’s going to most likely get dropped from the UFC all contributes to us believing that he’ll arrive ready to offer his best fight today in order to remain relevant in the division let alone the organization.  Ray is younger, a southpaw and has solid defensive skills but this is a decent move up in class for him today and we’ll want to see how he can manage in the later stages of this fight against a cardio maniac like Ross Pearson.  Pearson opened -190 and now we can catch him basically as a Pick-em.  We’ll eat all of that value.

Pearson -105 (half)

for all of our UFC FN 99 & 100 releases simply purchase the slate and recieve two cards today for the price of one!

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UFC 205 Alvarez vs. McGregor: Who bites the Apple? - 11/12/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to one of the most complete and exciting fight cards in recent UFC history.  This card from New York City is loaded with world class fighters, great matchups and profuse profit opportunity.  We scour UFC cards for live dogs that can deliver and we take it as our role to discover those live performers and release them to Clients with profitability being our single point of focus. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Alvarez +100 vs. McGregor -120

Eddie Alvarez is a UFC Champion, something he has focused on his whole fight career and he took the title in sensational fashion by KO’ing RDA in the first round of their recent title fight.  Alvarez’s MMA repertoire is complete with depth of competition, an ultimate toughness and the ability to dominate anywhere the fight goes.  There’s little doubt that Eddie has the experience here as well a supreme confidence after just hoisting the UFC Lightweight belt but what he’s strived so diligently to attain may well be the roadmap for his defeat tonight.  We must consider the physical affects that Alvarez has endured getting to the pinnacle of the UFC.  Alvarez last five years have seen him in tremendous battles fighting Michael Chandler twice and Patricky Freire in exhausting physically draining wars as well split decision wins over Gil Melendez and Showtime Pettis before finally exalting in his KO of RDA.  It's been our view that fighters have a difficult time enduring one war after another most especially against the competition of today's UFC and Eddie has survived and dominated in these wars for five straight years.  In almost each of these previous fights Eddie has had his bell rung only to display great heart and will in order to persevere and get his hand raised after exhaustive grueling and grinding.  Eddie wants in the Octagon badly with McGregor, a fighter he feels he can surely dominate but this may not be the best frame of mind to tote to the Octagon against a killer like McGregor.  This is a very poor matchup for Eddie based on what we feel McGregor is able to accomplish with appropriate preparation.

It’s our opinion that Conor McGregor is a rare generational talent in the fight game.  With time to prepare and the available funds to bring in any form of fighter, coach , nutritionist or other expert mentor into camp for his fights, no one is more prepared than McGregor for an opponent come fight night.  Conor will be the taller, larger, longer man tonight which will serve him well after just experiencing two fights with a larger man in Nate Diaz.  Conor’s  training methods, his ability to control space and his lethal striking are going to be difficult for Eddie to navigate and we feel the more Conor keeps Eddie at range the more frustrated Eddie WILL get.  When this happens the end will be very near for Conor’s power can shut Alvarez down and we feel this is exactly what will transpire. 

Conor opened up -125 and early money pushed him up to -160 before Alvarez money came in these last couple days delivering to us a price on McGregor that I believe (unless he fights Cain Velasquez) that we will never see again.  There’s great value on

McGregor -120

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -415 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz+340

Two Polish fighters vie tonight for the Woman’s Straw weight title in MSG! How outstanding is that for those ladies as well as Poland!  In our judgement this may be the most competitive fight on the card and may also be the most dynamic fight on the card.

 Joanna is a straight striking killer and has mowed through the division thus far but she has undergone several emotional and wearing fights that eventually must begin to take their toll.  While we recognize Joanna’s abilities we also feel able to recognize when a fighter is ripe and ready for a potential defeat and that’s exactly what we feel here tonight. 

Karolina has been in the UFC less than a year but she has beaten her opponents all by decision…the most recent being Rose Namajunas who is a top four contender in the division.  Karolina may lack power (as most lower class fighters do) but she makes up for it with output for she strikes at an unbelievable pace.  When inside the pocket Karolina can utilize her clinch game and elbows which are weapons that can affect the longer taller Joanna.  These two fought as amateurs in 2012 which is important as Joanna won by submission.  One would think that the prior victory would be advantageous to Joanna but we feel exactly the opposite based on what we’ve seen from Joanna in the last several days leading up to the fight.  Joanna has not been her cool and collected self (see the head butt of Karolina at the face offs a few days ago) as well at weigh-ins Joanna (a fighter that rarely talks or yaps to opponents) looked flustered and was pointing fingers and yapping at Karolina while it was Karolina who maintained cool, collected composure.  These signs display to us that the pressure of this fight and the opponent are providing Joanna some consternation.  Karolina is in a terrific spot here tonight.  Joanna’s recent talk of children and retiring undefeated only serves as the cherry on top of the desert as we handicap this fight.  While no one is siding with the challenger we feel compelled to fly against the grain.  Karolina is live as hell here….

Karolina Points handicap +5.5 +160

Weidman -180 vs. Romero +170

Chris Weidman is one of the major forces to help deliver the UFC to New York and has worked tirelessly over the years to get the UFC into the stubborn State.  He’s been earmarked for this card forever but we’re not sure that this is a very good spot for him.  Weidman is coming off a neck surgery and while he’s been cleared to fight, his recent inactivity coupled with the fragile mental frame we believe he holds coming off of the Rockhold devastation are factors me must consider.  Now let’s realize the many distractions of fighting at home in the Apple: ticket requests for family and friends;  the interviews leading up to the fight;  fighting in MSG as a home favorite and we have not even discussed his opponent yet, Yoel Romero.

Romero gives away some height and reach to Weidman as well age but the advantages Weidman has held over all of his opponents (except Rockhold) his wrestling will not present him advantage tonight for Romero is every bit the wrestler that Weidman is.  Romero has developed an excellent striking arsenal and when he strikes he strikes hard.  Romero at 39 years of age realizes acutely that this is his sole chance to get a shot for the title and will arrive to the garden tonight ready to give his absolute best effort.  We speak often here about trying to determine which fighter is ready to fight their best and be the beneficiary of training, focus, timing and result…..we feel Yoel is going to be one tough hombre to cope with tonight.

Romero +170

(Released earlier this week +155, we liked Yoel +155 so we like him more at current pricing)

Nurmagomedov -305 vs. Johnson +275

As Angelo Dundee would chime, “Styles make fights” and this is our best example on today’s card.  Nurmagomedov is, when active and in fight symmetry a complete wrecking ball for he is a wrestling/grappling/Sambo specialist and if he is able to grab his foe the foe will eventually go.  That said, even at his best, Nurmagomedov’s kryptonite is a skilled, fit, athletic striker who can remain at distance, fire strikes and especially move.  We just described Michael Johnson there.  Further, Johnson has been actively fighting for years now. His dynamic KO of Poirier and solid train of fights prior to that delivers him into tonight’s fight brimming with confidence while Nurmagomedov has fought off constant knee issues and injury.  Nurmagomedov’s  inactivity  plays a large part in our position here as his only fight since April of 2014 was a tepid showing against Darrell Horcher in April of this year…not a top contender by any means.  Michal Johnson has been able to train for this fight with a singularity of  focus for months now.  He’s the kind of athlete that can dominate the plodding Russian on the feet and if he sticks to his plan we feel he’ll make the Russian look a mess with his ability to stick, move and pepper him with punches….and power punches at that!   Johnson traditionally is a live dog and we believe strongly that he has absolutely no fear going into this fight.  Johnson opened a +220 dog so we’ll gladly take the value with him tonight.

Johnson +275

(Patience as this one seems to be climbing.. take every bit of value you can get)

Luque -115 vs. Muhammad +105

This is a great fight.  In one corner we have Vicente Luque a young up and coming fighter who wants to force the fight to the floor in order to manipulate the opponent with his superior grappling/wresting/submission skills.  Luque’s previous path to victory has been to utilize his striking to transition his way inside thus allowing him to grasp then maul the opponent to the mat for a submission.  While his plan is sound his competition level has not been what we consider top flight as well he takes this fight on short notice.  Belal Muhammad is a wily, grizzled veteran with deep experience, superior striking ability and guile.  What Muhammad does rely on too much is his ability to take a bop to the beak yet he proved his mettle against Alan Jouban a few fight back.  Though he lost that bout he showed tremendous ability to pressure Jouban in that fight and we feel Luque is just not ready for this type of stand up pressure.  Muhammad has been in the UFC under a year but has shown us that he belongs and his depth of experience prior to arriving at the UFC level was sound.  As long as he can keep this standing he’ll own advantage.

Muhammad +105

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Money Morning: UFC-NFL Profitability - 11/7/2016

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to Money Morning where we account for our weekly gaming activity.  Successful business’s procure profits, manage expenses and pay the bills.  It is no different with Profitable Sports Gaming.  Our business is to produce the necessary gaming profits required to cover expenses and make a living.  We take our gaming as a business which is why we have delivered to you a site that tracks all of our positions, monitors all results and delivers you win percentage information and profitability by week, year and lifetime.  Return on Investment information is included as all businesses provide ROI if they are to be taken seriously and we take Profitable Sports gaming very seriously.  After all….It’s Business!

UFC FN98 results:   3-3 +188.00

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

In the UFC we started slowly by losing two half unit wagers and one full unit wager <$200.00>.  At that time the Favorites were 7-0-1 on the card.  We then went hot when Dariush +125, Ferguson +130 and Sanchez (a twitter add for a half unit +265) all mangy mutts cashed. 

We’re 13-9 + $1,081.00 over the last four UFC fight cards (for the 100 dollar bettor).  Seems to us to be a sound positon to jump in and follow us for the remainder of the year as we are closing down 2016 like a well bread thoroughbred turf horse.  $27.00 for one of our fight cards is very affordable.  Join current GambLou clients and if you do ….be prepared to fill out deposit slips on Mondays!

NFL week 9

We are 1-1 in the NFL Week 9 with two releases working tonight.  We’ll update the GambLou.com site tonight after MNF as every release is accounted for and published.  After all….It’s strictly business!

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UFC FN 98 dos Anjos vs. Ferguson: Frontkicks, Footwork & Frijoles - 11/5/2016

Welcome to Mexico City fight Enthusiasts where the only thing higher than the altitude will be the fans in attendance slamming Cerveza’s and pounding Patron.  One of the first things I realized in the late 60’s early 70’s watching boxing was how proud, determined and courageous the Mexican fighter was.  Then the names were Zarate, Olivares, Chavez and my favorite fighter ever, Salvador Sanchez, a featherweight Phenom who passed in his prime via sports car accident.  It still hurts.  Today the names have changed and so has the sport for we are talking about the UFC but what has NOT changed is the passion by which the Mexican fighters fight and the passion that the fans bring to any arena. 

Those watching these fights tonight can expect a raucous crowd that holds grit, determination and a granite beard in high regard.  It’s important for me to give respect to the Mexican fighters of yesterday and today as I’ve been privileged to watch them fight and have learned greatly from them for decades. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Here's today's free release, all of our positions are available for $27.95

Dos Anjos -135 vs. Ferguson +125

This is a superior choice for the main event.  Dos Anjos is a complete wrecking machine.  He’s superiorly skilled, mean as a junk yard dog and tough as a three dollar steak.  Dos Anjos likes to pressure opponents, he utilizes leg strikes as well as anyone in the organization and has a great understanding of punching angles, power and precision.  Rafael is a complete fighter with excellent Muay Thai skills, wrestling ability and is a 5th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.  Our reservations with dos Anjos revolve around him leaving Kings MMA after the loss to Eddie Alvarez where he trained with Rafael Cordiero.  Switching gyms is no big deal but there is something more there that we do not know and it makes us suspicious.  This, coupled with how soon he is returning to the Octagon off a KO loss provide us real reservations that dos Anjos may be gripping too much, too soon in his attempt to return to Championship status.  Returning to regain a Championship belt is well more difficult an undertaking than to climb toward the Championship which is why we lean to Tony Ferguson in this spot.

Ferguson is the well more athletic fighter, he’s a couple inches taller than RDA and will have substantial reach advantage with legs and arms.  Ferguson has a very well rounded offensive fight arsenal at his exposure for he can wrestle, his BJJ/submission game is lethal and though somewhat wild and at time reckless he has a complete and effective kickboxing/boxing background and a creative approach.  What we must rely on is that Ferguson will treat RDA with the appropriate respect and make certain he does not leave himself hanging out there for an RDA counter.  This will be an exceptional matchup of proud warriors.  Ferguson is of Mexican descent and should also benefit from the fury of the crazy crowd. 

Ferguson +130

(Released earlier this week)

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Magomedov -120 vs. Dariush +110

This may well be the best fight of the month let alone the card. Magomedov is not your typical Russian fighter in that he brings very little ground aptitude with him into the cage instead opting for a style that is striking based and at that expertise he is deadly lethal.  He is keenly aware of his lack of prowess on the floor and which he reacts to that weakness by holding an 82% defense of take downs which in this fight will be a determining factor.  He’s undefeated since 2010 yet his victories in the UFC have been against far less skilled fighters than he’ll see tonight in Beniel Dariush.  Dariush’s challenge will be to get the Russian to the mat.  Dariush is the taller, longer, larger man as well he is younger and a southpaw.  We believe the combination of his ground and standing skills as well the Fightmetric advantages Dariush holds will be the difference in tonight’s outcome. 

Dariush +125

Silva de Andrade -115 vs. Briones +105

The first thing we noticed is that Silva de Andrade weighed in relatively early and came in two pounds under the limit.  Now the new weigh-in format must be taken into account here but fighters that weigh-in 1 lb. or more UNDER weight at weigh-ins go on to win 43% of the time*.  On top of weighing light da Silva has been away from the cage for about a year and a half and he travels to Mexico City to fight in high altitude.  While well-rounded and athletic, da Silva can be a bit wide/wild when standing.  Briones, his opponent is what we consider to be a typical Mexican styled fighter.  On the surface he may appear to be a bit plodding and deliberate which to an extent is true but he is also quite skilled, especially utilizing his boxing.  Briones sports a granite chin, tremendous toughness, determination and grit but his most important feature tonight will be his cardio for this guy can fight all night.  He’ll have the home crowd on his side and we feel as the fight evolves those cardio advantages will be an advantage for him.  Briones also went a full three rounds with Garbrandt a few fights ago so with a top effort (and we do expect that) Briones looks to be one mangy Mexican mutt.

Briones +145

(released to Clients yesterday at weigh-ins when de Andrade went under weight…which is why it’s advantageous to be a GambLou subscriber…..we get the best of the pricing often. Briones at plus money is a worthy position)

Alvey -205 vs. Nicholson +190

Smilin Sam Alvey (dressed in ‘Dia de la Muerto’ face paint) is a power punching southpaw and a well-rounded fighter as far as technical skills are involved.  Alvey is able to fight on the floor though we don’t see him use that form of his game often yet we feel that may be his best approach tonight.  He’ll be in the Octagon with a huge, power punching and relatively unorthodox fighter in Alex Nicholson.  Nicholson is younger, taller, bigger and a much longer fighter than Sam and we feel he may try to walk Smilin Sam down.  Sam hasn’t really faced a fighter that’s larger than he is with reach advantages so we feel there is some intrigue in Nicholson’s physical attributes and how Sam deals with them.  The fighting world is all over Alvey tonight but a look at the numbers and we see some inconsistency.  Sam opened -315 and now sits -205.  I smell bad Menudo in this fight so we’ll take the ‘Swing it Easy’ approach.

Nicholson +190 (half)

Reyes -195 vs. Novelli +175

Reyes, the Mexican fighter is a busy striker with profuse power but little by way of defense and if taken deep we feel that his chin may even come into question.  He has faced and beaten better competition than his opponent but in this spot we feel Reyes will be challenged.  While the Mexican fighters tonight who train in the altitude would normally hold advantage because they train in said altitude, that misnomer is evaporating quickly as almost all the fighters on the card arrived early to Mexico City in order to be able to acclimate.  UFC fighters seemed to have learned from UFC 188 (Velasquez vs, Werdum).  Novelli, who trains out of Jackson’s (in high altitude Albuquerque) will be the taller man with leg reach and a substantial four inch reach advantage and while he may lack the pure power that Reyes sports we believe his athleticism and length will be advantages that will allow Novelli to try to keep distance on the feet and force Reyes to become frustrated and charge.  Novelli may well want this fight on the floor and we do feel he is the better more well-rounded fighter in the cage tonight.  Novelli opened -110 so the current price of +150 presents value.

Novelli +175 (half) 

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Money Morning: NFL Week 7 - 10/24/2016

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to our weekly Profitability report.  With no UFC these last few weeks 110% of our Gaming focus has been on the NFL.  Our results are as follows:

Week 7 NFL 4-1

(Yes we had Seattle +8.5 Teased and prior to the SNF game we layed -120 on the Cardinals ML which was a miost unique and unusual tie)

NFL 2016:  18-12  60%

Check our Consulting tab at the top of this webpage to learn how to join us for the remaining NFL season.  We will earn you profit as well the site displays current Clients who any interested in our service may contact for a referal. 

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UFC 204 Bisping vs. Henderson: The Manchester Mouth - 10/8/2016

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to our view of UFC 204 held in Manchester England.  These English fans are rabid enough to fill Manchester Arena at 11PM local time to view the preliminary fights with the main card starting at 3AM local time!  We respect and admire the maniacal multitude in Manchester who’ll be locked and ‘loaded’ in their support of the combatants from the Commonwealth.

GambLou.com past results across all sports are published on our ‘Profitability’ tab found at the top of our webpage.  We realized a 7-3 +768.00 result for subscribers over the last two UFC cards and we’re just beginning to heat up as we enter the last quarter of the UFC calendar.   Enclosed is but one of the five mangy mutts we’ve mustered up in Manchester. 

 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight- 

Mousasi -315 vs. Belfort +285

This is a play based on the styles of these fighters.  Sure Vitor is a simple shell of his former ‘Chernobyl’ state but he is and always will be a fighter…and a proud one at that.  He’ll be at his most dangerous early and should wane drastically if this fight starts the second round.  This release is an indirect wager on Vitor for we believe he is able to get this fight past five minutes not as much on his own merit but also coupled with the fact that Gregard ‘s plan of attack most likely involves avoiding high risk early in the fight when Vitor has his best chance at a ‘Sunday shot’.   

Fight starts Round 2 -120

Grant -175 vs. Stasiak +165

Grant towers over Stasiak and will have to keep this fight standing for if Stasiak can get the larger man with substandard submission skill on the surface the advantage is his.  Stasiak must take Grant to the mat for a maul and the longer the fight goes the more likely Stasiak is to get the fight on the floor.  Stasiak is another Polish pup we hope to be proud of tonight.

Stasiak +165 (half)

Tumenov -240 vs. Edwards +220

Tumenov is a bit of an anomaly as contrary to most Russian fighters, he is basically a stand up artist who can struggle against the grapplers/wrestlers in the organization.   He sports impressive wins over strikers seemingly every bit as capable as Leon Edwards.  In this fight Edwards should sport speed, precision and athleticism but he’ll fight a striking battle against a cat in Tumenov that is a deft striker.  We don’t see Edwards trying to grapple with Tumenov rather we feel he will go out and try to overwhelm the Russian with his agility and precision punching and basically beat him at his strength.  Edwards approach is risky if he can’t keep Tumenov on the receiving end of precision punches and body kicks.  Tumenov is capable but we feel he is just a bit too plodding and slow for the mangy mutt in Manchester tonight.  Tumenov won’t go easy but he may go late.

Edwards +220 

Diakiese -280 vs. Sajewski +255

This is Diakiese’s debut in the UFC and we do recognize his athleticism, size and reach advantages.  With a wrestling/grappling base AND speed with power in his stand up game Diakiese is being well regarded in his debut fight and rightfully so BUT!  Diakiese opened -180 and has been wagered to the current -280.  He’s stepping up in competition level here against an opponent in Sajewski that many feel is a can but we are not quite convinced of that just yet.  Sajewski’s two UFC fights against Hein and Burns display to us a competition level far surpassing anything Diakiese has experienced.  Sajewski is in a highly desperate spot for if he loses this fight he may well be forced to return to the regional racket which no organization fighter wants to endure.  He’s a rugged tough striker that we fee will offer his absolute best tonight against a guy that showed us a little ‘debut jitter’ at weigh-ins yesterday.  Diakiese must demonstrate before we believe….we’ll side with the pooch from Poland here.

Sajewski +260 (half)

Martins -210 vs. Santos +190

We’re surprised at the line on this fight moving away from the more powerful and complete fighter to the older Brazilian fighter albeit the taller, longer fighter.  Martins opened -350 and the line has eroded now to -200.  We’ll take the value on the more complete, athletic, powerful fighter and play a rare open ended 2 team parlay.

Martins -200 (open parlay for 1 unit)

Roberts +100 vs. Perry -110

A basic pick-em fight featuring an American fighter most recently made well known for his camps ignorant, hateful display in his last fight against a local English bloke who will be the larger, taller, longer fighter in this matchup.  Perry is tough, straight forward, wide and wild in his striking while Roberts is more refined and precise in his blueprint to win.  Roberts will need to weather the early fury from Perry and maintain distance in order to pulverize Perry as the fight wears on as we believe that’s exactly what will happen here provided Roberts can overcome Perry’s early press.  Roberts is more complete in his fight arsenal than Perry and while he looked pedestrian against Steele in his last out we believe he sets up well against this raging rogue.

Roberts +100 

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