Money Morning UFC 2017: Hidden Hounds - 2/20/2017

Monday’s each week are the days we update our books and account for the period’s profit.  UFC results this past week were 2-3 -32.00; -.32 of a unit so there will be no deposit this week (which may not come through in our writing but perturbs we at World HQ to no end).  We spend mucho hours trying to pinpoint profitable pups from these pugilistic performances so while we’re frustrated with the results a closer look may uncover reasons our start to 2017 has been off. 

7-13 -3.42 units;  -19.32 ROI is not how we planned the start of the year but it is just the beginning of a long season that will feature some 30 plus more fight cards so patience and process will overtake panic and gripping without question.  Off periods in Gaming are inevitable, it’s how we manage them and minimize their effect both financially and emotionally that displays true professionalism.

Remember fight Enthusiasts this is a marathon and not a sprint.  We are Profitable Sports Gaming not ‘bury your man every event’ sports gaming just to remind!!

2017 UFC results show Favorites (as we track results) stand 39-13 in the UFC so while our slow start is unacceptable it is somewhat understandable.  Will chalk continue to win at that 75% clip?  If so we may have a tough year but we believe in our method, our process and our long term results so we’ll continue undergo dynamic Due Diligence, we’ll practice supreme Selectivity and as always on Mondays we’ll perform precision Money Management in public then update our results on the webpage.  We are not deterred rather more focused than ever because when it comes to profitability we are unrelenting and more importantly….

It’s Business!

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN 105 Lewis vs. Browne: Northern Lights Out - 2/19/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a Sunday fight card that offers the potential to profit off of putrid pups.  Last week’s 8-2 chalk run in the UFC brings favorites to 32-11-2 according to our tracking in 2017.  We believe in our process/result based off of the decades of time and experience we have accrued in Profitable Sports Gaming so we’ll continue to undertake dynamic Due Diligence, remain supremely Selective and manage the money in precision fashion. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab at the top of the webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Today's free release is below:  full write up and all releases available for $27.99. Good luck

Lewis -110 vs. Browne +100

Here’s another tilt we tossed around with Gabriel this past week.  We view Lewis as a bottom line brawler with more power and dynamic ground and pound than skill, precision and athleticism.  Browne’s game is well more balance for he is quite comfortable on the canvas and we believe he will use his athleticism, length and movement to control space in the stand-up thus making Lewis bull rush in order to engage.  This is where Browne wants the fight in order to use the space to blister the brawler.  Eventually Browne will anticipate Lewis’ bull rushes then potential takedowns may occur for while Lewis is lethal on top he has little by way of take down defense and on top Browne is quite effective in his own right.  In our judgement Lewis must make his way into the pocket and land a Sunday shot as his only way to win.  Browne is a substantial step up in class for Lewis and provided Browne can keep his beard from being busted this is Browne’s fight to earn by managing distance and utilizing his size, reach and athleticism.

Browne +100  

Lombard -110 vs. Hendricks +100

A perceived do or die for Johny Hendricks who we believe still has a future as a pertinent fighter in the UFC even though the division is now middleweight.  Hendricks’ stock is down but this appears to be a good opportunity as his opponent is 39 years old and struggles with maintaining a consistent level of activity over the course of a three round MMA fight.  Hendricks, a wrestling based mauler will want to clinch and drag this to the floor for advantage for his wrestling is more polished than his opponents Judo is.  Lombard, a Cuban fighting out of Boca Raton, Florida also travels to northern Canada in February to experience a real cold opponent besides the climate.  We believe at 185 Hendricks will be able to return to a distance closing, frenetic paced, wrestling machine and maul Lombard, sap him of his strength and apply constant pressure to insure this fight taxes the musclebound Cuban then enters the second round where we feel Hendricks will begin to take control of this fight.  Hendricks is metaphor for the old saying that, ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all’ for in order for him to get his hand raised he must display the kind of grit and determination that is needed to overcome Hector Lombard and his devastating yet somewhat premeditated power.   We feel the lack worry about weight will allow Johny Hendricks to look like a rejuvenated fighter tonight in pace, ferocity and result. 

Hendricks +105 (released earlier this week, currently +100)

Esparza -265 vs. Markos +245

We’re not believers that Esparza has developed her striking game enough to really compete with the top lady Straw weights.  Sure she’s a top wrestler but even in the 115 division she is undersized and usually gives away tremendous reach and size.  Markos enters the local who will be the larger lady owning said reach and size advantage.  At the opening number of +165 we thought Markos offered decent dog value and would be in a position to offer her best tonight so at current pricing we feel Markos is a buy as we see Markos as holding her own on the floor but having decent advantage standing.

Markos +245 (half)

Meerschaert -290 vs. Janes +260

We released this after our weekly chat with Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) on his MMAMeltdown program which airs on the FightNetwork (@fightnetwork) that we’re going with Janes +270 as a value position. Meershaert a southpaw will own advantage in the stand up and despite Janes size and length that’s where he’ll want to keep it.  Meerschaert is very capable on the floor but he’s in there against a guy in Janes that will want this on the floor, make it a maul on the mat and try to control this fight.  Meerschaert opened -185 a fair price but current pricing is provides value with Janes who we hope is one dangerous dog. 

Janes +270 (half released earlier this week) 

Tucker -160 vs. Sicilia +150

Tucker, the local kid from the regional scene is getting plenty of love and we believe that’s based mostly on Sicilia’s recent performances for we'll need to see this local kid fight before we believe in the greatness of Galvin’s game.  Sam will be the larger man tonight; he’s more experienced and arrives a well-rounded fighter with a pedigreed wrestling base.  Sicilia’s advantages are magnified if/when they grip and grope on the ground so he’ll need to press the action in order to get in tight, clasp the kid and make this a floor fight.  We have a difficult time believing  a newcomer who  is basically a striking based regional fighter with little class competition waltzing into the cage and taking out a .500 UFC professional mixed martial artist who knows his career is on the line. 

Sicilia +150

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 208 de Randome vs. Holm: A Gi grows in Brooklyn - 2/11/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 208.  We’ve been conservative with UFC releases thus far in 2017 because the cards have offered little by way of dynamic dog opportunity.  We’re tracking chalk as 24-9-2 through three UFC cards this year which verifies our cautious approach to the beginning of the fiscal year (we stand 5-5 +1.25u +8.70 ROI thus far in 2017 which we'll take understanding that we delve in dogs)  That said we view UFC 208 as an opportunity for we believe there are some value laden mangy mutts on this card and we’re willing to invest a few half unit positions (besides releases already published through the week) on fighters we believe are prepared to offer their best at a premium price.    

(All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM as well we display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab at the top of the webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

de Randome -120 vs. Holm +110

de Randome is a tall, long Muay Thai, kickboxing specialist that will try to control her opponent with direct forward moving pressure utilizing her length to forge her way into the clinch in order to control space, work the body with her knees and utilize elbows for she is an extremely offensive minded championship Muay Thai fighter.  We feel this approach is better suited for Holm to handle (as opposed to Holm trying to be the aggressor) as witnessed by her last performance against a fighter we feel is one of the two top woman’s Bantamweights in Chevchenko. In this fight Holm will be the faster, quicker woman as well we believe she’ll be in position to use de Randome’s forward approach to her benefit, utilize her counterpunching and eventually even take de Randome to the floor where we feel Holm can control her.  Its Holm’s body of work, her level of competition and her more well-rounded skillset that have us feeling that the wrong woman is favored here.

Holm +110

Brunson -120 vs. Silva -110

Anderson Silva is a polished professional fighter whose love of fighting is keeping him in the game and at 41 years of age he remains skilled and dangerous despite clearly showing signs of slowing and displaying less ability to defend in a manner that only the one time GOAT could display.  He competes today with a fighter in Brunson who is coming off of a KO loss in his last which was the poorest display of Octagon IQ as can be found in recent memory.  Silva saw that last outing of Brunson’s and is hoping Derek runs in to him face first for this is an approach that gives Anderson his best chance to beat a faster, younger more powerful foe.  Brunson and camp must prepare to return to Brunson’s roots of wrestling and immediately force this fight to the floor for a flailing as in our judgement this is the most effective approach for Brunson. We released Brunson -145 yesterday when we saw that Silva did not jump on the scales until 90 minutes after the weigh-ins began.  We view that 90 minutes as critical rehydration time as Brunson was one of the first to weigh-in and then begin to recover for this fight.  If Brunson uses his intelligence as a weapon tonight we feel he’ll get his hand raised.

Brunson -120

Teixeira -225 vs. Connonier +205

Teixeira is a top five talent in the rapidly thinning light heavyweight division in the UFC.  He’s grizzled, experienced, extremely well rounded and will own tremendous advantage if this fight falls to the floor.  Teixeira’s weakness if he has one it that he’s slowing as he approaches his 38th birthday, he’s been in many UFC wars and in his last fight was brutally KO’d by Anthony Johnson who’s in many ways a very similar version (a bit more complete) as Cannonier.  Connonier will be the younger, faster, more furious fighter who will approach Teixeira with a need to keep this fight standing for everyone in the building will know that Teixeira will control Cannonier should they make their way to the mat.  We handicap this fight as speed and power against guile and grit.  We released Cannonier as a canine earlier this week and the price today is well better than the one we released (+125) so if we liked him at that price we surely like him at current pricing.

Cannonier +205  

Reis -610 vs. Sasaki +510

We’ll bite on the younger, taller, longer fighter here.  Both of these cats are lefties which should be enough to make this an odd affair.  Both guys are grapplers and while we do recognize Sasaki’s physical advantages we will be quick to point out that the explosiveness, power and aggressiveness make Reis a worthy chalk but the current pricing offers too much value for these two.  Sure Reis is a reasonable -350 (his opening number) but at double that the Japanese fighter is getting overlooked.  We’ll make Reis prove to us that he’s focused on this fight and not looking beyond as he tries to retain his shot at the title,

Sasaki +510 (half)

Machachev -290 vs. Lentz +260

Here’s a fight that we felt was priced correctly at opening with the Russian fighter a -130 favorite.  Looks like the parlay playing punks have pushed Machachev to -290 and while we do recognize Machachev’s youth, size and fight arsenal it is our opinion that this is a big test for Machachev and one that is going to be well more competitive than current pricing suggests.  Lentz returns to 155 from 145 which we feel will contribute to his strength, stamina and ability to make this a dirty, ugly grinding grope.  Value play

Lentz +260 (half)

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie: unSung Jung? - 2/4/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN Houston.  

In our zeal to improve UFC profitability from last year, the pledge me made as we developed our 2017 UFC business plan was to focus on the ‘Selectivity’ of our releases.  We review past results each year end on each sport we work in order to create a plan for profitability for the following year/season.  Our blueprint for self-improvement this year has us committing ourselves to conducting dynamic Due Diligence as the profit derived from this will make the process of Money Management that much more enjoyable.  Selectivity will be stressed in the UFC in 2017 with the goal being to enhance win percentage, gross profit and ROI. 

Today’s UFC blog will be a free release because we believe the card is shy on gaming value and we practice what we preach when we say “Sometimes the best wager is the one not made”.  Believe me we’ll not be shy to publish early releases or aggressively ‘fire away’ when an opportunity presents itself for our ‘high’ is in making deposits not wagers. It’s business.

(All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Blaydes -315 vs. Milstead +285

Curtis Blaydes is a big, fit, tough wrestling based bad ass.  Sure he got roughed up by Ngannou a couple fights back but in time when Blaydes can further develop his striking we just may be able to see a rematch of that tilt for Blaydes has certain potential.  Blaydes opponent Adam Milstead is an athletic talented heavyweight albeit a bit undersized.  He’ll want to keep this fight standing and at distance in order to use his speed, striking and movement to keep Blaydes from clasping him and mauling Milstead on the mat.  We do believe that most fights at one time or another do find the floor and it will be no different here.  Milstead’s effectiveness depends on his conditioning, toughness and his ability to weather the storm and try to take some of the steam out of the bigger bloke in Blaydes which may allow him to gain advantage late.  We see this fight as eventually turning into an ugly grinder with Blaydes on top but it will be no easy task for Curtis....

Blaydes/Milstead starts Rd. 3 +145

Vick -110 vs. Trujillo -110

This fight is on Vick’s turf (The Texecutioner) and he sports substantial numeric advantages as he’ll be the younger, taller, longer man in the Octagon tonight.  Vick enters off a loss to Dariush which we believe enhances the trajectory of the fighter for off a loss a fighter with a champion’s heart usually returns with focus, drive and dedication.  We’ll believe Vick who is a talented, technical striker, responds in Championship form and produces the best effort of his career. Vick was one of the first to weigh-in yesterday then begin to rehydrate and we surely see this as a sign that he is focused and prepared.  His opponent Abel Trujillo deserves to be respected for Trujillo is an explosive powerful striker and Vick has been known to keep that chin in the air.  Trujillo absolutely has the power to put Vick out and he’ll surely strive to earn his way inside the pocket to both nullify Vick’s advantage and to throw hooks and try to vex Vick.  Trujillo does have a history of slowing later in fights as his physique is such that in time those massive muscles can get all ‘swole up’ and sap the snap from his shots.  Also Trujillo is a known vegan and while we respect his conscientious approach to life it is our opinion that a diet such as this coupled with the fact that Trujillo is almost thirty four may contribute to a lack of energy, snap and crispness later in fights.  Vick will need to keep distance early on in this one in order to gain advantage later in the fight by keeping Trujillo at the end of that length, moving and making Trujillo pay to get inside.

Vick -110

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: The Shine Report - 1/30/2017

Good day gaming Enthusiasts.  Today’s report is accompanied by an announcement of a major webpage modification we’ve conducted for the benefit of transparency.  Over the course of the last 6 months of assessing and improving our webpage we came into in depth conversation with @ProfessorShine on Twitter who through our dialogue was helpful in allowing us to grasp and incorporate format adjustments to the site that we believe will prove helpful.

Moving forward anyone who accesses the webpage will now be able to click on the ‘Profitability’ tab and gain access to all of our past time stamped results.  These results are segmented by Sport then after clicking on any year for each particular Sport one will now be able to review overall record, win percentage, monetary results and finally ROI for the event.  We’ll publish event results, yearly results and lifetime results for the selected sporting events we work in this manner moving forward to allow potential clients and critics to access our profitability.

Improvement, Transparency and eventual World Dominance…


We profited on the UFC Fox card by realizing a 2-2 +.75u result Saturday night.

2017 UFC:  4-4; 50% WP; +1.2u; ROI 16.55%

We address each and every genuine request we receive via e mail or twitter and clearly we are open minded to making adjustments to our procedures that will allow clients and potential clients increased access in order to make educated decisions or to simply review our positions and make note.

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC Denver Shevchenko vs.Pena: Altitude Adjustment - 1/28/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to our take on tonight’s UFC tablet.  For new readers our path to profitability can be summarized by understanding the three fulcrums to success we employ in deriving deposits from UFC duels.  We utilize Dynamic Due Diligence to detect and uncover value; we employ supreme Selectivity in refining our releases to a select few for our thrill is in winning as opposed to wagering….big difference there. Finally, we practice precise Money Management to track our bottom line each Monday after our work week for no profitable business may sustain itself without adherening to business principles.  After all…it’s business!

(All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Shevchenko -150 vs. Pena +140

Great fight featuring two dynamic fighters who are ascending the ladies bantamweight division quickly.  Shevchenko, a soutpaw is a world class Taekwondo, Muay Thai and kickboxing talent who is skilled, precise and agile in the application of her strike attack.  She has decent power but does most of her damage in accumulation.  She is experienced, cagey, premeditated, focused and refined and has been in Denver training for this fight for over three weeks.  Juliana Pena, the Venezuelan vixen on the other hand is going to be the larger woman in the Octagon and she’ll sell her soul to the devil in order to get this fight to the floor for a fracas.  Pena will pressure to get inside to grasp Valentina then drag her down to the mat like a lion on the neck of a zebra.  She’ll be relentless to maul her opponent on the mat for on the feet she is a bit wide and throws everything with finality as its purpose which will play directly into the hands of Shevchenko so that approach is off.  Shevchenko must utilize her outstanding footwork to remain in enough space to loop laser lefts to the lips of Juliana.  We attribute the “Styles make fights” adage to Angelo Dundee and never has this quote been so applicable to a fight.  We released this fight Wednesday Shevchenko -120 as she opened -170 so we own market advantage, now we get to watch these talented fighters compete.

Shevchenko -150

(GambLou clients receive all early positions and often the market advantage)


Assuncao -140 vs. Sterling +130

We discussed this fight in detail this week with Gabriel Morency on his show MMAMeltdown which airs on the FightNetwork.  Assuncao, a southpaw is a complete well-rounded mixed martial artist.  He’s vastly experienced, has power on the feet and is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu.  At 34 years of age however we feel that Assuncao’s best days may be behind him.  His last fight came after an almost two year absence from the game to heal various injuries.  While that fight was against an absolute beast in TJ Dillashaw, we felt Rafael labored and looked sluggish against TJ.  While we may expect a more fluid effort from him tonight the fact remains that he is in the Octagon with a man in Sterling that will be the taller, younger, longer and faster more skilled fighter.  He enters this fight off a loss in his last outing which equates to a more refined effort for any fighter let alone a fighter with Sterling’s skillset, competitiveness and team.  Sterling made the trip to Denver three weeks early (it takes a full 3 weeks to acclimate one’s body to the change of altitude) to acclimate which tells us that he is prepared to make amends for the Carraway loss and offer us his absolute best effort tonight.  One may equate this to a Bull Fight with Assuncao trying to get inside to get his hands on Sterling and Sterling floating like a butterfly and trying to sting like a bee.  It will take a full three rounds of skill, precision and movement from Sterling to win tonight for while he sports advantage in most aspects of this fight he does lack punching power.  If Aljamain is to get his hand raised tonight he’ll have to beat the fire hydrant with movement, skill, speed and an accumulation of strikes.  

Sterling +130

Jingliang -110 vs. Nash -110

This fight opened up Jingliang -170 and the love for his opponent has dropped that price like a hammer in a lake.  He wages battle with UFC newcomer Bobby Nash.  Nash has a wresting base, is athletic and does look the part but has a meager 2.5 years as a professional* compared to a guy in Jingliang who is coming up on a decade in the cage.  Jingliang’s size, the pressure he’ll impose and the fact that he is the more complete fighter make him attractive at the current pricing.

Jingliang -110 

Cerrone -150 vs. Masvidal +140

The way to beat Cowboy Cerrone is to box him, bully him and force the fight into his face.  Jorge Masvidal is a guy that says he is going to execute this exact plan yet his body of work displays the opposite.  Masvidal a guy that is surely ultra-talented and at the same time he fights (most) often without any sense of urgency.  Masvidal is one difficult cat to figure for as we handicap this fight it’s all about what action Masvidal takes because we know what Cerrone will want to do.  Cerrone will want to control distance, use his vast striking attack to control the fight and move.  Masvidal, in our opinion must do what Marvin Haggler did to Tommy Hearns in 1985 and that is aggressively gain control of the pocket, press and pitch power punches in order to make Cerrone move backwards, feel uncomfortable and have to fight Jorge’s fight.  Jorge must smother the Cowboy and make this a street fight as this form of fight will provide Jorge physical control of the fight and more importantly emotional control over Cerrone who in his past has had a difficult time managing this form of pressure.   This will all come down to whether Jorge comes to fight or frolic.  Monitoring this one as I am torn as to whether I can trust Jorge...

Ngannou -360 vs. Arlovski +320

Ngannou is a fighter who is being carefully placed as he works his way toward the top of an ultra-thin talent pool in the Heavyweight division.  We actually respect the path his camp is taking with him and understand why they think Arlovski is the perfect match for him tonight as they are aware that Arlovski’s switch goes off to a sneeze.  If Ngannou touches the bad ass from Belarus he’ll likely put him out.  That said, this fight is a decent step up for Ngannou and we have not seen any of the tomato’s he’s fought (Blaydes is no can but is a wrestler who wasn’t there to exchange) be able to throw AND LAND a heavyweight punch to Ngannou’s nose.  We’ve seen through history many chiseled fighters who look menacing and have been fed diets of diva’s only to finally achieve a level of opponent where they are going to be tested then fail miserably because they can’t take a belt to the beard.  Ngannou is raw and he’s in against a guy that will own tremendous experience over him inside the Octagon so excuse us if we make Ngannou show us something before we kneel down and proclaim him the next great Heavyweight.

Free Release:  Arlovski ITD +440 (.25u)

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN 203 Rodriguez vs. Penn: Phoenix Rising - 1/14/2017

Welcome Fight enthusiasts to UFC FN 203.  The overall level of talent on this card is already thin enough and now the NFL moves the Steelers/Chiefs to Sunday evening which will surely squelch the UFC viewership and walk up attendance. We released Bryan Caraway +220 days before he pulled out with injury.  This forced us into converting this to a free event based on the lack of depth/talent on the card.  In any event our job is not to assess the quality of the card but to calibrate capable canines that cash tickets in order to pad profitability.  We’ll take a measured approach to Sunday night’s fights especially since we’ll be focused on the Steeler/Chief game running at the same time.  Good thing we’ll be at the Westage in Las Vegas where we may watch both events and hopefully harvest hundies.

(All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Klose -250 vs. Powell +210

Powell enters Klose’s home town with plenty to prove.  Powell will be the much taller, longer man in the Octagon Sunday night and his fight advantage depends on his ability to get Klose in close and try to force this fight to the floor.  Powell’s rubber guard and long angular appendages allow for him to effectively kick and strike though he is comprehensively un-athletic and gangly with his stand up other than some effective leg striking.  Klose on the other hand is a hand grenade.  He is compact, explosive, packs dynamic power and is exceptionally athletic.  Though we feel Drakkar may have some butterflies in the early going, once this turns into a fight we believe he will be able to keep this affair standing and eventually wear the longer less capable fighter down.  We released this to clients several days ago Klose -210 so this price is steep but we do like Klose to get his hand raised here.  Klose ITD +170 may also be an effective way to gain value as this price ascends…for over -250 we say play the prop.

Klose -250

Saenz -165 vs. Mendes +145

Two Phoenicians are going to fight to the finish in this one.  Frankie Saenz is a wrestling based fighter who I s coming off of a couple straight losses albeit to Faber and Wineland, capable competition indeed.  Frankie is the older cat that we feel must utilize his stand up striking in order to come out of this fight victorious.  It’s not that Saenz’s striking is that polished but he does own advantage over ‘Tanquinho’ who is still developing his striking. Saenz does own a striking advantage over Mendes the BJJ specialist yet Mendes’ BJJ is on such an elite level that we can almost guaranty Saenz will not want to flop with him on the floor.  Mendes has been singularly focused on this fight, his opponent, and this opportunity.  While Saenz sports an impressive 74% take down defense we feel that the Mendes will eventually manage to make this a maul on the mat.  If/When this fight goes to the floor (and we believe it will) it will be Mendes that does the mopping.

Tanquinho +145

Lauzon -120 vs. Held +100

Here’s another that we E mailed Clients when Held was +120.  These two guys are eight years apart so while Joe-Lo sports the experience, the guile and a more well-rounded MMA arsenal it is Held we believe that will own advantage in BJJ (yes we do acknowledge Joe’s dynamic BJJ capability but he is a mixed martial artist that utilizes BJJ while Held is an accomplished BJJ artist striving to complete his MMA game).  In fight terms, Held today is almost exactly what Joe was ten years ago, raw, dynamically talented with plenty of development yet to come.  In this his sophomore outing in the UFC we believe it will be Held that will pry advantage from the older cagier Lauzon in this fight.  IN our judgement Held will manage to compete just enough with Lauzon’s stand up to be able to drag him to the dregs for a flop on the floor and eventually wear down Lauzon, a fighter we respect tremendously but believe is on the downside of his outstanding career.  

Held +100

Rodriguez -440 vs. Penn +350

We’ve said this for years and witnessed it for decades…the once great world class fighting talent well past his/her prime who does not know when to stop fighting.  While we do respect BJ Penn and accept the ‘Phenom” as an all-time great we must also say that every dog has their day and Penn’s day is unfortunately long gone.  Could he come out Sunday and snap some Sunday shots on Yair and stun the MMA world?  Sure, but we give him oh so slim a shot to accomplish this.  Penn is yearning for the lights, the rush of competition, the high one gets when that cage door slams and at thirty eight years old he is at the top of his mental game.  The issue is (and the issue with all forlorn fighters) is that the body can’t perform what the mind is instructing it to do.  Rodriguez is a flashy fighter high on athleticism and short on power but he’ll enter the Octagon fourteen years younger than his opponent.  Now we expect no easy outing for Yair as Penn is still beguiling, experienced and tough as a twenty year old saddle but his window in this fight is pretty narrow.  Find a way to put the kid to sleep or take a tremendous amount of punishment and we believe it will be the latter. 

Over 2.5 -110

Profitable Sports Gaming It's Business! - 1/10/2017

Welcome to 2017. As we embark on the new 2017 fiscal year let’s highlight the Sporting events we work passionately then provide a history of our profitability. 

2017 begins with our comprehensive UFC coverage which opens up January 15th in Phoenix with UFC Fight Night.  We offer a handful of free cards throughout the year and UFC FN 103 will be a card we offer free to any interested readers.  Further UFC cards may be accessed by purchasing tokens to pay for the fight card. 

Fight Cards are $27.99 for individual cards, Packages of 25 tokens (our Silver package $125.00) may be purchased which drops the token price to $5.00 or $25.00 per fight card.  The Gold package offers dedicated GambLou Enthusiasts 125 tokens at an average cost of $4.00 per token making any single fight card an affordable $20.00 per card.

The “Profitability” tab at the top of the GambLou webpage lists all results by the year as well our lifetime results.  Those wanting to search by the specific event may do so there and our “Archives” will display each event release by release. 

UFC 2014,15,16

Record:  231-303     Win %:  43.26%     Units won:  + 54.50 (100per)               +11.30 ROI

NFL 2014-2016

Record:  146-99      Win %:  59.59%       Units won +43.10 (1k per)                    +16.00 ROI

NHL 2016

(Past profitability/results for the NHL were outstanding but unrecorded)

Record:  37-39       Win %:  48.68           Units won: +15.55 (100 per)                  +15.16 ROI

College World Series 2016

Record 6-8              Win %:  42.86%       Units won:  +1.15 (100 per)                    +8.10 ROI

We Work ONLY select sporting events that we have deep passion for as our focus at is to Narrow our  Focus and Increase our Expertise.  One look at our documented results will display that the fulcrums of our success:  dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and precision Money Management  all coupled with our four decades of Profitable Sports Gaming will provide any interested party with long term profitability.  It’s Business!

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: 2016 UFC/NFL Summary - 1/2/2017

Happy New Year Gaming Enthusiasts. 

In the pursuit of Profitable Sports Gaming it’s mandatory that we run our gaming as a business.  First and foremost, the sports work are the ones we know and have deep passion for.  We regard ourselves as specialists in the sporting events we work as opposed to those we consider ‘generalists’ who work every sport because they don’t earn unless they sell.  This is an antiquated and selfish from of business practice that serves well the ‘Capper but not so much the Client.  Our single point of focus is to provide the Client our expertise in order for them to invest their dollars for a return on investment.  It’s business!

We utilize our time and energy with appropriating dynamic Due Diligence towards the specialized sporting events we work.  We utilize supreme Selectivity in releasing positions for our high is in making deposits as opposed to making bets.  Finally, we’re meticulous about Money Management as each Monday we account for the week’s activity by publishing out Money Morning article. 

Our webpage also displays Archives where all past selections, the date/time of such selection, the wager amount on said selection and finally the result are posted. 

The Profitability tab on the top of our webpage displays our lifetime Win Percentages (per sport), the gross units won (in UFC a unit is 100.00 dollars but in the NFL a unit is $1,000.00 so we track by the unit) and finally the Return on Investment (ROI) so any prospective Clients have everything they need to research our business model appropriately. 

2016 NFL (Regular Season)

Final results for the NFL Regular Season:  40-27; 59.7%;     +9.5U (1K per);    12.86% ROI

2016 UFC

Final results for the UFC 2016:                    74-109; 40.44%; +7.56U (100 per); 4.86% ROI

In 2016 we reduced the number of selections released through the year which was a goal of ours.  However our win percentage dropped as did gross profits.  Profitable Sports Gaming can be a cruel endeavor and while we devoted more effort into winning in 2016 our numbers show a decline.  Clearly we’ll be focused on returning to the 47%/48% win percentage we’re been used to in the UFC in 2017.

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC 207 Nunes vs. Rousey: Hip Toss or Hammer Fists? - 12/30/2016

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to the final card of 2016.  This has been a challenging year for us as UFC win percentages were not quite up to our dynamic for diagnosing dangerous dogs.  That said we have been white hot in November/December and we plan on finishing the year with a deposit that will prop our profitability while setting us up with momentum for 2017.

Here is today's free selection and understand that our whole UFC 207 card is available for a paultry $27.99.  If we lay an egg we'll credit your account the next UFC card which happens to take place here in Phoenix Jan. 15th.  Enjoy the Fights!

UFC 2016:  73-105 41% win; +10.11U;  6.95% ROI

 (All releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Cruz -200 vs. Garbrandt +180

We could almost take the write up we had last week for Jouban vs. Perry,  change the names and write the same piece.  Mixed Martial Artist against a street fighter (now we will give Garbrandt more credit than Perry for Cody does have a decent wrestling base and can move) is not advantageous in any way shape or form for the brawler unless of course said brawler can snap a Sunday shot to the snout of the opponent.  Garbrandt is edgy, wound tight and will be overwhelmed by the far superior mixed martial artist here.  Garbrandt is being rushed into this spot too soon against a guy in Cruz who has in fact had the chance to rattle off a few fights in a row without injury. Cruz, who in our opinion is a top talent both inside and outside of the Octagon is going to make the slugger work, take him deep (for this is a five round fight) in order to slow him, sap the snap in his shots then submit him to slumber land.

Cruz ITD +260 (half)

Borg -135 vs. Smolka +125

Usually when fighters miss weight there is an immediate reaction to fade such fighter which in most cases is justified.  In the case of Ray Borg (and a few recent fights in which fighters have missed weight badly) it’s our position that when he realized that he was going to miss….he stopped the cut and in essence waived the 20% of his purse in order to protect his fight integrity which we do take issue with (as opposed to Johny Hendricks who came a couple pounds within weight making him a most dubious consideration).  It’s one thing to miss weight and give up 20% BUT another to do both then drop the fight!  Like Oliveira in his last outing against Brooks (we had strong words vs. Oliveira then for we consider missing weight in this fashion to be cheating) Borg is manipulating the system and it does not sit well.  That said, he is the stronger fighter in this spot and by stopping the cut we feel he has decided to cut bait, give up 20% of his purse but remain prepared and in advantageous positon for this tilt.  Yes, he’s cheating but we had already released him -125 some days earlier and will now hold our position and trust he is ready to get his arm raised.  At least we hold advantage over current market pricing….

Borg -125

Oliveira -135 vs. Means +125

Means opened up -140 and has been wagered into mangy mutt status much to our delight.  Oliveira owns advantage on the floor while Means will own substantial advantage in the stand-up/striking.  “Styles make Fights’ as Angelo Dundee would chime and this one looks to be a real dandy.  We feel Oliveira, after missing weight by an ocean in his last fight (he tried dropping to 155) will have a bit of trouble with Means’ size, his Muay Thai and his durability.  Oliveira must get this fight to the floor which may not be easy for him.  We believe he’ll have trouble with the larger man in Means who got a taste of what’s needed to improve his take down D when Matt Brown wiped the floor with him.  We don’t believe Oliveira is any Matt Brown.

Means +125

Profitable Sports Gaming


GambLou: NFL Profitability - 12/27/2016


NFL Week 16 results 2-2 - .25u

NFL Season Results: 38-25  60.3%;  +9.70u (at 1K per unit);  13.53% ROI*

Profitable  Sports Gaming

*all results for all sports may be accessed by hitting the "Profitability" tab at the top of our webpage.