UFC FN134 Rua vs. Smith: Hostilities in Hamburg - 7/21/2018

Welcome UFC fight Enthusiasts to a Sunday morning matinee live from Hamburg, Germany. We’ve discussed the importance the UFC places on its expansion and these cards held outside of the US feature talented local/regional athlete’s, ferverous fans and often inconsistent judging. I handicap these cards with a focus on potential live locals, the quality of their opponent and the stylistic matchups that can all contribute to the determination of who ends up with their hand in the air in the case of any decision.

It’s unfortunate that in 2018 the emotion of a crowd can sway what is supposed to be professional and unbiased judging. In these slates held overseas one must be aware of who the UFC may be trying to promote to assist them in the exportation of their sport to that particular region. The UFC (and we) knows that local heroes provide buzz, vibe and growth. One release is official now as I do not want to miss the price. I’ll post any other releases via @Twitter PRIOR to fight time if the other lines come our way.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Meek -140 vs. Fabinski +120

Meek is a striking based Norwegian fighter who is tough, durable and has faced far superior competition than has his opponent. He fights a pressure-based wrestler in the Pole Fabinski who will need to smother the Viking, eliminate his space and make this a grind along the fence then a maul on the mat in order to hold advantage. Meek has just completed a training camp in which he worked with Kamara Usman (at the UFC performance Institute) on his areas of improvement (wrestling) to try to complete his fight game for he is already a dangerous if not a bit wild striker. If Meek can maintain distance against the forward pressing Fabinski he will be able to bludgeon the regional based, less diverse fighter. I believe the level of competition, the recent training at the UFCPI as well the fact that the UFC is interested in striking based finishers as opposed to grinding wrestling decision machines all point to Meek winning this fight most likely via decision. Mdeek opened a bit high at -280 but the over reaction in price here offers value on the Viking.

Meek -140

(added 7-21-18 8:50am EST)

Teixeira -150 vs. Anderson +130

Anderson is the younger, longer, taller fighter. He has top end wrestling skills and works a volume striking game in order to clasp, clinch and then drag the opponent to the floor where Anderson is most gifted. Anderson’s a lead pipe top five fighter in the Light-Heavyweight division but for one shortcoming. His chin. Andersons’s chis is more fragile than your grandma’s antique porcelain and this shortcoming is something that can’t be improved upon. In fact, a breakable beak is something that only regresses and this is the sole reason Anderson is not currently at the top of this division. Teixeira on the other hand is now thirty-nine years old. He’s grizzled, cagey, experience and powerful but he is also somewhat deliberate and slowing. He’s yet to lose to anyone other than the absolute best of the division and in this fight I believe he is able to clip the taller Anderson before three rounds transpires. This fight will end via Teixeira finish or Anderson decision.

Teixeira -150

(posted 7-21-18 11:30am EST)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


2018 NFL Profitability: It's Business - 7/15/2018

NFL Consulting

Welcome potential NFL Consulting clients. At GambLou.com I employ a refined and calculated approach to realizing bottom line profit in Sports Gaming most especially few specialize sports that I focus solely on; the NFL, UFC, NHL Playoffs, MLB Playoffs and College World Series.  I’ve realized bottom line Profitability privately for decades and publicly via GambLou.com for the last five years (the last three years NFL results are displayed on our webpage’s ‘Profitability’ Tab) as I undertake sports gaming strictly as a profit earning business.

The approach is simple: I shoot from a rifle as opposed to a shotgun regarding profitable NFL gaming. I don’t offer my service by the game, the day or the week as I encourage a longer term approach which over time provides profitability. I target Investors that may not have the time to conduct appropriate research but do have a temperament for the benefits that WINNING Sports Gaming delivers. I also mandate that GambLou.com NFL clients are able to afford making unit wagers of $1,100.00 per.  I don’t win every wager but I do realize bottom line profit over the twenty two week NFL regular and playoff seasons. The service requires a monthly commitment because I am confident that after four weeks I’ll be able to display profitability above your initial investment plus profit. 

2014-16 results with win percentages, weekly profits and ROI are displayed for your review on the ‘Profitability tab’ found at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. Further, each week all documented Client results are published in my Money Morning blog. This practice allows those who are interested in the service to review actual results prior to making a commitment for a four week run at NFL profitability. Clients may choose to join at any time during the season but early entry allows for future wagers and Games of the Year which are released prior to the season’s start.

I stand by the results and commit to providing all Clients with their initial investment PLUS return in the first monthly period or I’ll extend the period until the initial investment is recoupled plus profit.

-The Service-

I limit Client relationships each year to a select few. Interested investors should feel free to contact me directly for questions/input as I am always open to dialogue. I strive to completely satisfy those willing to utilize my expertise and in turn create a loyal Client base. Slow matriculated growth is the GambLou.com approach and Client profitability is THE single point of focus.

Each Monday client results are managed so that as a team we are in complete control of client investment amounts, current balances, upcoming positions and bottom line profitability. My service runs for four NFL weeks which has been an appropriate time to show aptitude at NFL gaming and allows Clients to feel comfortable as they watch me operate.

The consulting fee for the initial 4 week period is $500.00. This covers all NFL activity (as well the college positions released via the Legendary Math Model which are always gratis). Clients signing up in August also receive all Future and GOY positions which are provided without charge once the subscription is received. Last year Clients profited handsomely over their weekly NFL profits once our GOY and Future positions cashed. I plan more of the same this August but also exercise some patience on Future releases which may come some weeks into the season. When the value is right we’ll strike!

-Facts-

I'm extremely selective with releases and my win percentages allow for clients to earn profit well above the cost of my fee. One glance at the archives (all sports are archived and recorded) will display the results. My method involves comprehensive Due Diligence, extreme Selectivity with releases and precision money management. Synched together this approach across the few sports I specialize in provide my clients with bottom line.

2014 NFL results (regular season and playoffs):  +$13,100.00 52-37 (58.43%, 13.47% ROI)

2015 NFL results (regular season and playoffs):  +$21,800.00 53-31 (63.1%, 23.54% ROI)

2016 NFL Results (regular season and playoffs):  + $9,500.00 40-27 (59.70% 12.86%ROI)

2017 NFL Results (RS and Playoffs)                         + $10,530.00 47-37 (56% 10.53% ROI)

High win percentages enable me to make aggressive moves with regard to buying off or through key numbers (which I do aggressively). I play middle positions when it is advantageous and work money lines (especially in the playoffs) in order to enhance the bottom line. Critical is the use of the 6pt. -110 teaser, which clients must have the ability to utilize (which is getting more and more difficult).

-My Pledge-

Any client choosing to utilize this service may expect the following:

- 2 to 5 total positions per week which equates to anywhere from 8 to 14 positions total for the initial month (average about 4 releases per week) so profitability must be your goal not ‘action’.
 

- Personal access to me throughout the week via E mail and phone if requested. I interact with each client each Monday to update figures and account to the penny and for the premium price make myself available to clients at any time and for any reason. I often invest aggressively early in the NFL week to obtain line advantage over the gaming market. This provides middle opportunities and other value enhancing maneuvers I actively employ to derive market advantage.

- I am regular attendee’ of the famous but now diminishing Tuesday Meeting in Las Vegas (for years) with fellow professional Las Vegas handicappers (both private and public) on a regular basis to network and discuss profitable positions in an open forum. This form of due diligence is highly relevant and it is for Client’s benefit. The proof is in the results!
 

- NFL Future positions are provided to clients who have subscribed early which means joining in early August will allow you to gain access to any and all Future wagers and games of the year that I release. Last year, Future releases and Games of the Year (GOY) added to Client profits.
 

- Clients must have their own resources with which to invest. Clients must have the ability to buy half and full points and your outlet must accept 6pt two team teasers at -110 (tie is a tie). It also should be stated that Clients should be able to play each release at a minimum of $1,100.00 per release as anything smaller makes it difficult to justify the premium price of my subscription.

- Clients that understand that my approach to Profitable Sports Gaming is run as a strictly business thrive. I track each release and keep precise records of all Client transactions; balances and progress then update each Monday one on one.
- It must be understood that I provide consulting. I don’t take wagers nor do I condone anything that may be construed as illegal. My services are consultative based and focused toward an educated, refined Investor.
 

- Further questions may be addressed with me personally as I pride myself on tailoring the service to client needs. I offer consulting on a highly professional level for people who take their gaming seriously which is verified by the premium price of this undertaking. Those that wish to create a relationship will be dealt with in a professional and courteous manner.
To review last year’s Client testimonials please contact me directly.


UFC FN133 Dos Santos vs. Ivanov: Beatdown on the Bench - 7/14/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 133 from Boise, Idaho. Tonight’s fight card is steeped with interesting matchups and value. I see a some potentially perilous positions but also have handicapped a couple of angles on fighters that arrive tonight poised to perform at their peak. I use every resource available to produce bottom line because after all, this is business.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time).

(Originally published 7-11-18 Point Spread Weekly VSIN)

Boise, Idaho hosts UFC Fight Night 133 this Saturday where ex-Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos (-175 favorite) takes on a debuting Heavyweight from Bulgaria Blagoy Ivanov (+155 underdog).

Dos Santos has had a storied UFC career for he has compiled a 16-4 record since his arrival to the UFC in 2008 against the most talented heavyweights of the times. However, in his last seven fights he’s realized a 3-4 record which is an indicator of a fighter that may be past his prime and on the downslope of his career (Dos Santos was beaten via stoppage in each of those four losses). Dos Santos is fighting Saturday for the first time since his defeat to Stipe Miocic in May of last year where he was iced in the first round. Also important is that Dos Santos was then pulled from a fight in September of last year for testing positive to performance enhancing substances against Francis Ngannou by USADA*. In April of this year he was re-instated and cleared to fight. It’s quite possible Dos Santos, without the contribution of foreign substances will look even more pedestrian than he has in his last couple of losses. Dos Santo’s main issue is that his once granite jaw now more resembles porcelain and he’s going to step into the octagon Saturday with a Bulgarian bomber who is well versed in mixed martial arts.

Blagoy Ivanov is Dos Santos’ opponent Saturday. He’s a relatively unknown fighter except to many of us fight nerds. He gained unwanted notoriety in 2012on his way to the UFC when he was knifed in a bar fight, fought for his life and after taking a couple years off to recover from near death ramifications has earned his way into this opportunity. Clearly the kid is determined, focused and tough as John Wayne’s saddle.

The 31-year-old Bulgarian fighter first gained FIGHT ever acclaim by defeating Fedor Emelianenko in the semifinals of the 2008 World Sambo Championships. In the decade since, he’s evolved into one of the top young heavyweight talents in a very thin heavyweight talent pool. Ivanov, an international master of Combat Sambo and a black belt in Judo will be the younger man by three years though I consider Dos Santos at this point in his career to display characteristics of a fighter much older than his thirty-four years.

Ivanov will be the shorter man with well less reach and experience however I believe he’ll be able to overcome those potential disadvantages by being the fresher, faster more explosive fighter Saturday night. Ivanov who is as complete a fighter as is Dos Santos moves extremely well for a two-hundred-and-fifty-pound athlete and he’s able to fire for a full three rounds.  It’s my belief from watching his film that the longer this fight goes the stronger Ivanov will become and he’ll eventually be able to dictate the pace and begin to back Dos Santos up. Once that happens this fight becomes a hunt.

This match-up opened as a pick-em but was immediately moved to current pricing which is reflective of the Dos Santos name (and lack of knowledge of Ivanov) but not of each fighter’s ability in my opinion. Ivanov, who looks more like a plumber than a fighter is getting a great opportunity to enter the UFC with a splash by putting Dos Santo’s name on his resume.In the meantime, older heavyweights out there best believe that in a sport as competitive as MMA, and in an organization concerned about drawing power and capital intake that the day will come that they too will be managed as meat and fed to the next up and comer.

Ivanov +155

7-14-2018 update

Northcutt -125 vs. Ottow +115

Ottow is going to try to muscle, maul and bully Northcutt who has shown in past fights that he can be crowded, mauled, taken to the floor and held there. Northcutt’s also moving up to Welterweight (170lb.) where he’s experienced poor results. Yet Northcutt’s only twenty-two years old, he’s athletic, he’s shown a propensity to work on improvement and I base that on the fact that he’s with Faber and crew at Alpha Male where its certain that they’ve been addressing Northcutt’s take down defense and more importantly his wrestling. I also feel at his age that he’s going to be well more powerful and dangerous at this weight if he can utilize his movement and keep Ottow on the outside where he can utilize his kicking game to set up his whole striking arsenal. I also feel the UFC has interest in Sage surging up the rankings to contribute to future ratings, so my belief is that this is a favorable matchup for the kid based on Ottow’s less athletic, deliberate, plodding and somewhat predictable style.

Northcutt -125

Brown -130 vs. Price +110

This fight comes down to my preference for Price’s level of competition faced and his more complete fight arsenal. Though Price can be somewhat wild and unpredictable at times he is tough and comes prepared to fight all night so cardio is never an issue. Brown’s past opponents pall in comparison to Price’s but his precision striking and size will test Price as Price is used to being the taller man in many of his bouts. Brown’s complete lack of wrestling/grappling ability is going to be a target for Price and I believe it’s his path to our profitability.

Price +110

Mendes -115 vs. Jury -105

Mendes opened -230 for this fight and that line’s dropped like a hammer in a lake since its release. I’d agree that -230 may be too stringent a chalk price for a fighter who’s been off for some time serving suspension and has lost three of his last four fights but one look at his level of competition shows that he’s competed with the absolute best of the weight class for years.  

In my view people presume Mendes to be weak in the beak based on his eradication by Edgar so the unknown regarding this and his time off have people thinking that a well-rounded jack of all yet master of none who basically relies on his takedown for offense is going to maul and manage Mendes?

Jury shows up the younger, longer, taller fighter here but his resume is shoddy and his style feeds right into Mendes strengths in my opinion. While Mendes as a firm favorite is not my preference Mendes at current pricing (and I’ll advise waiting on this and determine if this line may yet compress another dime or so from the parlay playing pukes on Jury) is a worthy gamble because yes the time away could have hurt him but in my view time off for a mature wrestling-based fighter feeds the fury and tonight Mendes’ fury is going to be direct at Miles Jury.

Mendes now -115 (or better)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NFL Consulting: Pro Football Profitability - 7/9/2018

NFL Consulting

Welcome potential NFL Consulting clients. At GambLou.com I employ a refined and calculated approach to realizing bottom line profit in Sports Gaming most especially few specialize sports that I focus solely on; the NFL, UFC, NHL Playoffs, MLB Playoffs and College World Series.  I’ve realized bottom line Profitability privately for decades and publicly via GambLou.com for the last five years (the last three years NFL results are displayed on our webpage’s ‘Profitability’ Tab) as I undertake sports gaming strictly as a profit earning business.

The approach is simple: I shoot from a rifle as opposed to a shotgun regarding profitable NFL gaming. I don’t offer my service by the game, the day or the week as I encourage a longer term approach which over time provides profitability. I target Investors that may not have the time to conduct appropriate research but do have a temperament for the benefits that WINNING Sports Gaming delivers. I also mandate that GambLou.com NFL clients are able to afford making unit wagers of $1,100.00 per.  I don’t win every wager but I do realize bottom line profit over the twenty two week NFL regular and playoff seasons. The service requires a monthly commitment because I am confident that after four weeks I’ll be able to display profitability above your initial investment plus profit. 

2014-16 results with win percentages, weekly profits and ROI are displayed for your review on the ‘Profitability tab’ found at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. Further, each week all documented Client results are published in my Money Morning blog. This practice allows those who are interested in the service to review actual results prior to making a commitment for a four week run at NFL profitability. Clients may choose to join at any time during the season but early entry allows for future wagers and Games of the Year which are released prior to the season’s start.

I stand by my results and commit to providing all Clients with their initial investment PLUS return in the first monthly period or I’ll extend the period until the initial investment is recoupled plus profit.

-The Service-

I limit Client relationships each year to a select few. Interested investors should feel free to contact me directly for questions/input as I am always open to dialogue. I strive to completely satisfy those willing to utilize my expertise and in turn create a loyal Client base. Slow matriculated growth is the GambLou.com approach and Client profitability is THE single point of focus.

Each Monday client results are managed so that as a team we are in complete control of client investment amounts, current balances, upcoming positions and bottom line profitability. My service runs for four NFL weeks which has been an appropriate time to show aptitude at NFL gaming and allows Clients to feel comfortable as they watch me operate.

The consulting fee for the initial 4 week period is $500.00. This covers all NFL activity (as well the college positions released via the Legendary Math Model which are always gratis). Clients signing up in August also receive all Future and GOY positions which are provided without charge once the subscription is received. Last year Clients profited handsomely over their weekly NFL profits once our GOY and Future positions cashed. I plan more of the same this August but also exercise some patience on Future releases which may come some weeks into the season. When the value is right we’ll strike!

-Facts-

I am extremely selective with releases and my win percentages have traditionally hovered around the 60% mark. One glance at the archives (all sports are archived and recorded) will display this. My method involves comprehensive Due Diligence, extreme Selectivity with releases and precision money management. Synched together this approach across all sports provides my clients with bottom line profitability.

2014 NFL results (regular season and playoffs):  +$13,100.00 52-37 (58.43%, 13.47% ROI)

2015 NFL results (regular season and playoffs):  +$21,800.00 53-31 (63.1%, 23.54% ROI)

2016 NFL Results (regular season and playoffs):  + $9,500.00 40-27 (59.70% 12.86%ROI)

2017 NFL Results (RS and Playoffs)                         + $10,530.00 47-37 (56% 10.53% ROI)

High win percentages enable me to make aggressive moves with regard to buying off or through key numbers (which I do aggressively). I play middle positions when it is advantageous and work money lines (especially in the playoffs) in order to enhance the bottom line. Critical is the use of the 6pt. -110 teaser, which clients must have the ability to utilize (which is getting more and more difficult).

-My Pledge-

Any client choosing to utilize this service may expect the following:

- 2 to 5 total positions per week which equates to anywhere from 8 to 14 positions total for the initial month (average about 4 releases per week) so profitability must be your goal not ‘action’.
 

- Personal access to me throughout the week via E mail and phone if requested. I interact with each client each Monday to update figures and account to the penny and for the premium price make myself available to clients at any time and for any reason. I often invest aggressively early in the NFL week to obtain line advantage over the gaming market. This provides middle opportunities and other value enhancing maneuvers I actively employ to derive market advantage.

- I am regular attendee’ of the famous but now diminishing Tuesday Meeting in Las Vegas (for years) with fellow professional Las Vegas handicappers (both private and public) on a regular basis to network and discuss profitable positions in an open forum. This form of due diligence is highly relevant and it is for Client’s benefit. The proof is in the results!
 

- NFL Future positions are provided to clients who have subscribed early which means joining in early August will allow you to gain access to any and all Future wagers and games of the year that I release. Last year, Future releases and Games of the Year (GOY) added to Client profits.
 

- Clients must have their own resources with which to invest. Clients must have the ability to buy half and full points and your outlet must accept 6pt two team teasers at -110 (tie is a tie). It also should be stated that Clients should be able to play each release at a minimum of $1,100.00 per release as anything smaller makes it difficult to justify the premium price of my subscription.

- Clients that understand that my approach to Profitable Sports Gaming is run as a strictly business thrive. I track each release and keep precise records of all Client transactions; balances and progress then update each Monday one on one.
- It must be understood that I provide consulting. I don’t take wagers nor do I condone anything that may be construed as illegal. My services are consultative based and focused toward an educated, refined Investor.
 

- Further questions may be addressed with me personally as I pride myself on tailoring the service to client needs. I offer consulting on a highly professional level for people who take their gaming seriously which is verified by the premium price of this undertaking. Those that wish to create a relationship will be dealt with in a professional and courteous manner.
To review last year’s Client testimonials please contact me directly.

 


2018 College World Series: Profitability Report - 6/25/2018

College World Series Final Series

6-29-19 10:45am EST

Final College World Series results:

5-8   38.4%   +1.55 net return  +12.9% ROI

6-27-18 7:30pm EST

Beavers game 2 -155

Beavers series +160

@Twitter release

6-26-18 4:55pm EST

Oregon State -240 vs. Arkansas +200 Series

Oregon State -155 vs. Arkansas +135 game 1

Confused would be the best way for me to describe this CWS Final series from a betting perspective. Yesterday on short rest Heimlich comes -260 to -280 in game one against a rested Knight for the Razorbacks. Tonight, with the extra day seemingly benefiting the Beavers well more than the Hogs the line has tightened all the way to current.

Wind yesterday was in the batter’s teeth at 12-15mph and tonight a gentle wind will blow at their backs to the tune of 10mph tonight so much has changed.

What has not changed is the fact that Arkansas must win tonight with their Ace Knight on the hill as it is my belief that the edge in Oregon State Pitching is in talent and depth and I see little way the Hogs hoist without winning tonight. Also this is the more appropriate and accurate line for this game than the mistake that we almost got to attack last evening.

It’s Ace against Ace and while I’m leery of the Hogs getting too much rest this week I’m also feeling that as poorly as OSU played early his week to still be  in the finals after playing less than stellar ball is incredible. Further, I feel they could be more game ready after having played five CWS games this last eleven days to Arkansas’ 3 games.

Last evening, I posted Knight +240 prior to the rain out so it’s difficult to try to come to grips with a more prepared Beaver team and compound that by only realizing a +135 price on the Hogs.

Pass. Just like a disciplined baseball hitter, one can’t swing at every pitch. Back manana.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

6-26-18-9:35am EST

Yesterday in Omaha the wionds were 13-15mph from the S/SE. Today they're 10mph from the NW. Everything changes with a day off and new circumstances here. Stay tuned. We'll update pricing for series and game one through the day and have any release up by 6pm EST.

(originally posted 6-25-18 4pm EST)

Oregon State -300 vs. Arkansas +260 (series)

Oregon State -270 vs. Arkansas Knight +240 (game one)

Well hardball Enthusiasts I’ve managed to release both bracket winners this year after naming them both last year. In previous years I’ve managed to pull profit when I  am correct with just one side of the bracket, so this year I’ll earn a little extra profit when one of these teams wins the Championship but there remains a little meat on this College World Series bone. Let’s Play Ball.

I handicap Oregon State as a favorite in this series because of team depth, team experience and team Pitching (even though there will be some tired hurlers taking the hill for the Beavers over these next few days). They’ll get their center fielder back which will help them in the field and at the plate. State will need to be artful in their pitching plan as their starters thus far in the CWS have completely underperformed until Abel’s gem Saturday. Heimlich, tonight’s starter has all the pressure on him as he must deliver for Arkansas’ only way to win this Championship is to win the game their Ace Pitcher Knight plays in. That Knight pitches TO-night.

Arkansas is the fresher team, the more explosive team and with ex-Nebraska coach Van Horn at the helm they’ll be the crowd favorites this series. As mentioned above, the Hogs will toss their undefeated Ace Pitcher Knight at the Beavers tonight and while the Beavers should perhaps be a modest chalk in this game….in no way do I handicap them in this situation as almost a three to one chalk.

Game 1: Arkansas +240 (Knight)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


2018 College World Series: The greatest show on Dirt - 6/13/2018

6-22-18 7:30pm EST

Razorbacks +125

6-22-18 2pm EST

Mississippi State Bulldogs +280 (half)

6-21-18 7:15pm EST

wind howling from the North means it's behind the batter as opposed to in his teeth. 

Red Raiders +170

6-20-18 11:30am EST

Red Raiders Red Raiders +170

6-19-18 7:25pm EST

game cancelled. back 6/20

6-19-18 6:20pm EST

Weather tonight is calm, let’s hope they can get all three ballgames in today and catch up to the schedule. Razorbacks got the momentum and talent while the Red Raiders got past trip futility in Omaha and the long ball driving their run at a Championship.

Red Raiders +150

6-19-18 10:25am EST

It's difficult handicapping the dad gummed weather in omaha. Rain off and on all day. Wind right now is light but it could change. I do like the Heels again today and see them anywhere from -150 to -170. I took Heels -150 for a unit. Good Luck and let's hope they get at least this game in today.

6-17-18 1:10pm EST

Welcome to day two 2018 College World Series hardball Enthusiasts.

Today at TD Ameritrade the persistent plains wind is gusting from the south at 15-17mph which is directly into the hitter’s teeth in this ballpark.

Arkansas, Florida and Texas Tech are the odds-on contenders in this side of the bracket. Each are explosive teams with deep offenses but the Red Raiders, Gators and to a lesser extent Hogs all rely on the long ball to contribute to if not provide the bulk of their scoring. These wind conditions and the depth of the TD Ameritrade outfield will squelch offense for teams that rely on the home run and force runs to be earned/manufactured not bashed for. With today’s howling wolf wind, I place premium on a team’s ability to pitch, field, get on base and manufacture runs for in these games today, I see scoring as a premium.

If my judgement, today’s wind conditions will level the playing field greatly in game one between the Hogs and the Longhorns and convert this into a close, tightly contested small ball affair. As a matter of fact, it’s the ‘Horns that lead this bracket in sacrifice bunts, and stolen bases so they can’t ask for any better opportunity to win one for Coach Garrido than today.

Longhorns +170

Check later for any release on the later contest either here or via @Twitter.

Good Luck today to all and Happy Father’s Day to all of you Fathers out there.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome College Baseball Enthusiasts.

Here’s my breakdown for this year’s College World Series. This was also published Wednesday June13th on VSiN’s weekly publication, “Point Spread Weekly”. I’ve made minor adjustments to that article as when submitted the odds had not been released. I’ll use Westgate Las Vegas odds that were released as this article was published and therefore the same odds that were published in Wednesday’s column.

Play Ball

Similar to Hockey, it’s mandatory to understand the bracket set-up for the College World Series. The double elimination bracketed format greatly benefits any team that wins its first two games. Experience is also important as teams with recent CWS experience often thrive in their return trip into Omaha. As important as those factors are, gaining an understanding of each team’s strengths and weaknesses (based on recent play and season long statistics) and how those attributes apply to the ballpark in Omaha is critical. 

An important factor in uncovering value for CWS participants is gaining an understanding of how each team plays baseball. TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha is a cavernous stadium with a huge, deep outfield. The stadium sits low (right next to the Missouri river) and the wind (almost always gusting) blows right into the teeth of the hitter. Teams that earn their way to Omaha by playing home run derby ‘monster-ball’ often struggle as the TD Ameritrade ballpark is larger than the parks these teams have played in during their regular season.

The premium for success in Omaha is not based on the home run or slugging percentages rather teams that prove most effective in Omaha are rich in pitching, fielding, sacrificing runners over and hitting for percentage as opposed to power. Small ball is the theme for the College World Series simply put. Teams that competed in Omaha the previous year almost always gain advantage (Florida and OSU) in their return.

Along with experience , team ERA, on base percentage, fielding percentage, doubles hit and whether they are senior laden squads (especially on the pitching staff) must be handicapped for these are premiums when competing in the CWS.  This is a baseball tournament that will test a team’s completeness in all aspects of the game as opposed to being  a home run derby as this event once was considered back in the days of old Rosenblatt stadium. 

The most talented team may not always win the Championship in Omaha rather the team that is playing its best hardball at this time of the year can often rise up (see Coastal Carolina Chanticleer’s 2016) to win the Tourney.  The history of this tournament is laden with chalky front running teams, ace hurlers and top draft pick hitters arriving to Omaha and flailing, so I place a premium on team play rather than individual talent.

Bracket I

Florida +300, Arkansas +450, Texas Tech +1000, Texas +800

I have prioritized each team based on my handicapping (as of this writing the lines have not been issued) of each squad. I regard this side of the bracket to be dangerously competitive as each team is ranked in the top twenty-five (D1baseball.com top twenty-five, 5-21-18).

Florida (ranked #1) has been to Omaha the last four years straight, seven of the last nine seasons and they arrive this year as defending Champions. They’re experienced, complete in every category I track and are a worthy favorite to defend their championship. The SEC has proven to be a baseball powerhouse so each of the three SEC teams in this year’s competition must be respected. Florida because of its depth and experience will be considered the favorite (slight) in this side of the bracket but they finished their last eighteen games nine and nine and really toiled in the regionals and super regional. Florida though talented may be in for a tough return to Omaha.

Fifth ranked Arkansas is a powerful, balanced baseball club that in previous CWS appearances struggled to score runs. Coached by ex-Nebraska coach Dave Van Horn these Razorbacks arrive this year with a dynamic offense, a deep pitching staff and poised to make noise. It also must be mentioned that the Omaha fans will be quick and voracious in their support of the ex-Husker hardball coach so look for the Hogs to be fan favorites. Arkansas went 1-2 vs. Florida in the regular season then defeated them in the SEC Tourney 8-2, they beat Texas Tech in their only contest this year as well were 2-0 vs. Texas. Arkansas has the lowest team ERA in the bracket, is on par with Florida in WHIP, they can field effectively, they hit for average and power and they arrive to Omaha as offensively explosive as any team in the field. Arkansas +450, though shy on experience in Omaha is a true threat to move into the final series and win the CWS.

Texas Tech returns for their third trip to Omaha in the last five years. They own a 1-4 record so the Red Raiders will arrive hungry and anxious to overcome past futility as no team wants to be tagged with the “two and BBQ” moniker, which means two games, two losses and a return trip home. Tech is a team I have diagnosed as a monster ball club for they are explosive offensively and can bash the ball in fact they in many ways rely on the home run which can be troublesome in the big O. Their offensive numbers do stand out yet they own the highest team ERA, WHIP and walks allowed and have the lowest fielding percentage of the four teams in their bracket. Tech will have to play its best ball to earn their way into the later stages of this tourney for this side of the bracket features four top fifteen ranked dynamic baseball teams. I have reservations about their potential in this side of the bracket.

Twelfth ranked Texas is playing its best ball at the end of the season and peaking at just the correct time. That said, they trail in almost every statistical category I regard as important. Texas has gained inspiration in that they’re playing in tribute of ex-coach Augie Garrido (a personal friend of mine from past CWS appearances) who decades ago took Texas from a languishing baseball club and delivered them back into the national prominence they had enjoyed for decades in college baseball when led by famous Texas coach Cliff Gustafson (head coach in Texas from 1968-1996). Texas faces a dominant Arkansas team in its first contest which is a tough draw (Arkansas scored 20 runs in a two game series against Texas earlier this year). In my judgement the Longhorns will be overmatched in this game and in this bracket.

Bracket II

Oregon State +350,  North Carolina +600,  Mississippi State +800,  Washington +1200

Washington, unranked in the top twenty-five, is making its first ever appearance in the College World Series. They overcame a deeply talented and experienced Cal State Fullerton bunch in extra innings in the Super Regionals to gain entrance to Omaha. The Huskies statistics place them competitively within the bracket but the emotional high from gaining entrance to the Tourney along with a draw against an ever dangerous SEC club provide me enough reservation to feel that Washington did all they could just to get here. I do not regard the Huskies as a threat on this side of the bracket.

Mississippi State, unranked in the top twenty-five could be a sleeper in this bracket. Though only 15-15 in SEC conference play they are peaking at the correct time and their competition level in the SEC forces me to regard this team as capable of besting the Huskies in an all-important game one. If the Dawgs can best the Huskies, they’ll find themselves in position to win one game against a ranked North Carolina or OSU squad to earn a most advantageous position in this bracket. MSU were +4000 prior to the Super Regionals and are now +800. Statistically speaking they fall well below the Beavers and Heels in most categories I feel are important but the fans from ‘Dogville’ Mississippi always show up in Omaha in force. The experienced they’ve gained from the stringent level of SEC competition plus their momentum from the regionals and SR’s make the Bulldogs a true flyer. MSU +800 (half).

Fifth ranked North Carolina has had previous CWS success but not in the last couple years. They arrive in Omaha with a team ERA of 3.60 though they do walk batters (4.07 per nine innings) which is a concern. Carolina scores 6.9 runs per game, they steal bases better than any in the bracket and they can slug BUT they struggle to hit for average (a premium in Omaha) and they don’t hit doubles nor do they effectively sacrifice bunt/hit. The Heels may be as deeply talented without true superstar players as there is in the field this year so they must be respected. That said the Heels will have their hands full in game one against OSU’s ace hurler Luke Heimlich and for this reason I’ll overlook them in the futures market but strongly consider them in game one. I say this because the Heels should be modest underdogs to the Beavers (+150/+165) as opposed to the +220 they are currently priced at for game one. Stay tuned on this one…

Third ranked Oregon State arrives to Omaha this year with a story. Last year, under circumstances they were unable to control their CWS team arrived in Omaha prepared to dominate but instead an old, ugly story arose which forced the team to compete without its best player, pitcher Luke Heimlich. The Beavers played solid baseball but the distraction of those headlines and loss of their ace was simply too much for the team to overcome in last year’s tourney though they did play well into the tournament.

Since overcoming that untimely situation last year this team has had a single minded focus to return to Omaha and complete the task of earning the team’s third CWS Championship.  Oregon State is fortunate enough to have two top pitching prospects in Heimlich 2.49 ERA and Fehmel 2.81 ERA. Their team ERA and WHIP is the lowest in the Tourney, they rarely walk batters. Their fielding percentage, on base percentage, and doubles hit lead all eight teams in the field. The Beavers have stolen the most bases of any team in the tourney this year, they lead in sacrifice bunts and own a second best on base percentage of .413. This team is complete, experienced and poised to represent a bracket that is substantially less able than is Bracket I. One note of importance, in 2006 and 2007 the beavers won the CWS final series both years against none other than North Carolina. Make no mistake that these two will be playing a deeply competitive hardball game Saturday.

When the future odds come out Oregon State along with Florida then Arkansas will be tagged as chalk for this tournament. Based on those perceived prices and pending my review of the odds once they break,  I’ll commit that Oregon State +350 is my release (at any price) to make it to the final series and complete what they began but failed to accomplish last year.

While the Beavers will be chalky when the future numbers are released, I expect the price on the MSU Bulldogs to be quite attractive. I may also suggest a small position on Mississippi State (added above). Because these future numbers have yet to be released (at the time of this deadline) I’ll invite all readers to check out my CWS updates available on twitter @GambLou all week long.

Check here for daily CWS releases.

The College World Series is…. The greatest show on dirt

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 225 Whittaker vs. Romero II: Rasslin' on Rush - 6/9/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 225 from Chicago, Ill. As usual my main event breakdown published this past Wednesday on VSiN’s Point Spread weekly is below for your review. I’ll update that column with comments about that main event and angles for other fights on this solid slate.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Originally published 6-6-18 Point Spread Weekly

Saturday’s UFC 225 comes to us from the Windy City Chicago, Illinois. After a few weeks of elimination fights, we’ll witness a five round Championship fight for the Middleweight title which is a rematch between current Champion Robert Whittaker and number one ranked challenger, Cuban Yoel Romero. Let’s break it down.

Robert Whittacker -235 vs. Yoel Romero +195 Middleweight (185lb) title fight

Last July 8th these two tussled for the Interim Middleweight title. The pricing on that fight at closing was Romero -145 vs. Whittaker +135. In a closely contested fight Whittaker won via decision but the story was how. He lost the first two rounds then persevered and outworked the deliberate Cuban in rounds three to five displaying superior conditioning, quickness and speed.

An important factor in that fight was that Whittaker sustained a knee injury caused by Romero in the early stages of round one in that fight. This injury and a staff-infection (now fully healed) were the reasons he’s been on the shelf for the last year. As mentioned, in the late rounds of that first fight Whittaker was the quicker, faster, stronger athlete and he was doing it with an injured medial left knee.

Whittaker’s resume is complete as he’s defeated every form of specialized MMA fighter from strikers to BJJ artists to wrestlers and in each confrontation he’s excelled. The Australian arrives to this fight with the more diverse skillset in that he specializes in Karate, Hapkido, Boxing, Wrestling and BJJ. Whittaker, at twenty-seven is in his prime fighting years as well he’ll hold a fourteen-year age advantage over Romero. It’s legit to question what affect the time off may have had on Whittaker by means of rust but in my judgement, young improving fighters when provided a year off can often benefit both physically and mentally. I believe this will be the case with Whittaker

Yoel Romero, the challenger is a physical freak of nature as he’s a muscularly sculpted, world-class wrestling-based fighter whose ferocity and athletic explosiveness can be dominating early but his aggressive fighting style tends to usurp him of his energy once the fight gets into the later rounds (as displayed in their first fight). Wrestling, grappling, and grinding for take downs against an agile, strong, athletic opponent can be extremely taxing and that’s exactly how Romero tired. At forty-one I see little way Romero is able to improve upon his cardio or any other aspect of his MMA arsenal. We know what he brings as does Whittaker.

Romero’s is most dangerous in this spot because he understands that this is arguably his last shot to hold a UFC title. In this fight I believe (and I think his people believe) that his best chance at winning is a risky one in that he’ll need to press Whittaker immediately, swarm him and to make this a wild swinging brawl under any circumstance. Pressing Whittaker to negate his punching power and defend those vicious front legs kicks is mandatory as Romero must be active if he is going to take the title. It was movement, jabs and leg kicks that allowed Whittaker to maintain distance in their first fight, so Romero must change it up and negate Whittaker’s space if he is to have any chance to gain the title.

These two know one another well but the only fighter capable of adding fight dimension to their repertoire since their last meeting is Whittaker. Whittaker possesses the skill, strength, explosiveness conditioning and athleticism to control the Romero increasingly as this fight wears on provided he’s diligent and patient in the early minutes and manages this fight into the later rounds. I believe Whittaker eventually overwhelms Romero as youth, speed, conditioning and explosiveness overtakes a proud but aged warrior.  

At current pricing of Whittaker -235, I find it difficult to actually lay a wager on Whittaker. He opened -150 so I’ve missed any value on the Aussie. My angle for this fight will be to shop the props as currently Whittaker ‘insider the distance’ (ITD) is +135. That will be my approach to this main event.

Saturday 6-9-18 update

So today all understand that Romero missed weight at this his second chance at the title. Romero is simply too large a man to compete at the weight class yet he counts on being able to cut profuse pounds like he was a man of Whittaker’s age which was a big error in judgement. Romero spent an extra two hours cutting .08lb. before  officially missing weight on his second and last attempt. TI know how I regard this distraction as well the hours of advantage Whittaker (one of the first to step on the scale at 8:49CST) had to re-hydrate and focus on the fight. You reader may interpret the issue as you will. Besides the ITD wager mentioned above I’ll add another wager using Whittaker (see below).

Benavidez -200 vs. Pettis +180

Joe B has been on the shelf so the question for him is whether he is rested or rusty. In my judgement, wrestlers rarely display rust for they do nothing but practice. Grinding daily at wrestling requires more grittiness and fortitude thatn anything else while striking based fighters are heavily reliant on timing, precision and countering which take time to refine in the heat of battle. Joe B at thirty-four is the older fighter but he’s the wresting-based fighter who’s been in with and competed with the best the division has to offer. He won’t be rusty rather he’ll be unrelenting

His opponent Sergio Pettis will be younger, faster and want to keep this fight on the feet if he has any chance to compete with Benavidez. Pettis has little power and poses little threat to Joe on the feet other than the fact that Joe can’t allow Pettis to outpoint him with his pitter patter punching. Once on the floor and I absolutely believe they’ll get to the floor, this fight will be dominated by Benavidez. I expect a snoozer here as Joe Rubs the Pettis out of Sergio.

Whittaker -235/Benavidez -200

2 team parlay 1 unit +115

Blaydes -190 vs. Overeem +180

I’ve been as profitable on Blaydes as any fighter recently we as I’ve ridden him through his loss to Ngannou forward to this point in his career. I believe this young wrestling-based fighter on the improve is close to becoming a true threat for the title in the Heavyweight division. But in this fight he must be very cautious as in many ways he’s made for his opponent Alistair Overheem.

Blaydes striking, though improving is nowhere near as effective as Overeem’s as well he’s giving up vast amounts of experience and savvy to the Dutch striker. Blaydes advantages lie in his ability to get the ‘Reem to the floor and rub him out for wrestling is the preferred method of effectively controlling the striker. Wrestling will allow Blaydes his chance to eliminate Overeem’s stand-up effectiveness and enhance his ability to get to that porcelain chin by first gaining top control then utilizing vicious ground and pound to turn out Overeem’s lights.

Now Overeem understands completely the plan of his opponent and is aware that if he is to overcome this young lion he must keep this fight ion the feet and at distance. Overeem must pepper the younger fighter from the outside and use movement to keep the wrestling from clinging to him. He must make it difficult for Blaydes to get inside and into the clasp. This tactic (which is easier voiced than executed) can often create impatience for the wrestler which is where the dangerous part comes in…. for if Blaydes finds it necessary to rush in to attempt a double or single leg take down attempt he could be recipient of lethal leg kicks and devastating knees. Blaydes must be careful not to play right into the savvy fighters snare so believe me when I say that where this fight takes place will be telling.

A stand-up fight with distance control and precision striking fight will favor Overeem and an ugly maul on the mat is Blaydes path to victory. ‘Styles make fights’ as my hero Angelo Dundee would always say and this fight is sure to be determined by how and where it is fought.

Overeem +170

one footnote: I personnaly have a couple unit wager on Anderson +200 against Holm but did not release it in time for all to obtain that price. As dog of +140 or better Anderson is a release. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 


NHL Stanley Cup Final: Knights vs. Capitals - 5/28/2018

In my years of Profitable Sports Gaming I have found that Sports can be cruel and simultaneously that Sports can be oh so exalting. Cruel in the sense that whether it be individual/team setback, loss or injury the game goes on, the team moves forward, and the player must work to recover. Exalting in that perseverance can and is often paid off in the ultimate accomplishment.

The Vegas Golden Knight story has been an incredible one and while I applaud their success I also must be true to the handicapping process. That process says that tonight the Capitals lay on the Golden Knights exactly what the Knights laid onto the Winnipeg Jets in the Conference Final series…..a cold hard slapshot in the face. I do believe that as Vegas did to the Jets in the Campbell Finals so too will the harder, faster more focused and weathered Capitals do to the Knights tonight. That’s the cruel part.

The exalting part will be the release of emotion and the outpour of camaraderie that decades of pent up frustration when the Capital futility converges on the Cup. As a collective they’ll finally earn their opportunity to hoist whether that be tonight as I foresee it or game six, either way the Capitals have paid their dues to the Hockey Gods and the Knights have not. Criticize that statement only at the expense of explaining to me how Neal missed a wide open net last game or the number of pucks that rang off the iron in game four.

No, tonight puckheads we celebrate determination, grit, fortitude and honor for the correct team is going to hoist the 2018 Stanley Cup and it’s the Washington Capitals. Be it game five or six it matters not…because in the end it’s about the….

Exaltation.

Capitals +155

Enjoy the festivities puckheads

 

"This is the business we have chosen" Hyman Roth in Godfather II

6-4-18 7pm EST

NHL Stanley Cup Final game 4

Welcome Puck passionates, if you told me after game one when the Capitals were down 0-1 that I could work myself in position (prior to game 4) to profit +2.5 units if the Capitals win the Cup and lose nothing if the Knights happen to hoist I would have jumped at the opportunity.

Today we have that same option.

Now don’t get me wrong, I believe the Capitals can run the Knights out of the gym tonight and half way expect that to happen… BUT Profitable Sports Gaming is as much about maximizing profit as it is minimizing risk. Not only that I feel it would be poor business to make any decision other than executing a 1 unit wager on the Knights +200 series tonight.

I’ve said on numerous occasions that Future wagers’ sole purpose is to insure bottom line profit! Understanding this makes tonight’s decision quite easy because after all is said and done….it’s business!

It’s important not to allow confidence in a gaming position to manifest itself with inefficient wagering. I’ve gone on record publicly on numerous radios shows, podcasts, publications and my own blog expressing how I handicap Capital dominance in this Stanley Cup Final series and while the money wagered is of great importance, of greater importance is the fact that my pride in on the line here and I yearn for the Caps to hoist the Cup as much as they do.

I work tirelessly on my gaming releases and will say that when I publish these breakdowns they have my heart and soul in each as well my pride is on the line every time I release a position.

There will be gaming opportunities into game five (and beyond if the Knights win tonight) so tune into what I hope will be a Capital’s dominant performance tonight and enjoy the passion.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

6-2-18 4:05pm EST

Golden Knights +110 L

System tonight favors Knights. Let's hope system is off...

 

5-30-18 7:05pm EST

The Hockey world, both new fans and traditional are relishing the success of the Vegas Golden Knights as well they should.  I enjoy this success story as much as any for what the Knights have done for a sport I love, a community I respect and the business that is profitable sports gaming.  

What makes me bristle is the coronation that’s being anticipated and planned after simply one Stanley Cup Playoff game. Over the years,  I’ve learned to respect and admire both teams until one wins their fourth game before making any party plans and proclamations.

I caution the Knight fans not to get too wound up unless of course they win tonight but again this is a seven-game series and I hesitate to think that it is as easy as the Golden Knights are making it appear.

Additional Capitals +210 series below and earlier today our only position.

5-29-18 4:45pm EST

Announced this morning on 'The Numbers Game' with Mr. Gill Alexander Capitals +210 series which is the best line I can find outside of Las Vegas. 

Capitals +150 game 1 L

Las Vegas Golden Knights -140 vs. Washington Capitals +130 (series)

Welcome to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final where the top two 2018 NHL hockey clubs compete for the opportunity to hoist the Stanley Cup Trophy.

The 2018 Golden Knights have been a one of the greatest success stories in North American Sports. The civic pride they’ve instilled into the Vegas community, the attention they’ve driven to the game of Hockey and the tremendous growth in hockey wagering handle (especially in Las Vegas) are all unquantifiable and attributable to this team. The boon provided by these Knights was unanticipated by everyone which is what makes this meteoric success so unique and noteworthy. While the Golden Knights story is inspiring, the goal today is to  evaluate every factor possible in determining advantage (if any) between these two teams. When the two most complete teams reach the Stanley Cup Final series they arrive focused, determined, strong-willed and eager to complete the dream they’ve envisioned since childhood. Here’s a breakdown of the series as I handicap it.

Goaltending

Fleury 1.68 GAA  .947     Holtby 2.04 GAA  .923

These goaltenders know one another well as they’ve competed plenty in the past. Holtby, since his reinsertion into the lineup for the Capitals has played stellar hockey in contributing to the Capitals success. He’s calm, confident and playing the best hockey of his career entering this series..

Fleury has been magnificent these playoffs and his numbers prove it. If he remains playing at this level of dominance and producing these results then Las Vegas will win the Cup. That said, I have reservations about Fleury and though he has quelled them all year long I do not believe he’ll be able to continue this quality of play especially against a bunch of hardened veterans who know him well and are looking forward to competing against their old nemesis. In four straight seasons as the full time Penguin netminder, Fleury never realized a save percentage higher than .900. Last year while playing part time he accrued a .924 GAA over nine wins in fifteen games but was relieved mid playoffs by Matt Murray.  Fleury’s been exceptional to date, but I expect regression in his performance in this series not so much because I don’t feel he’ll continue to play well but because I feel there is only so much pressure a minder can face before a few begin to slip by. In the playoffs, a .915 or .920 save percentage is outstanding for a netminder but Fleury’s current .947 is stellar and in my opinion unsustainable especially understanding his past performances, his defense and the opponent.

Advantage: slight Golden Knights

Defense

Each team has played suffocating defense during these playoffs, but a closer look reveals Fleury backing up a defense that allows an abundance of shots on goal. In fact, the Knights have allowed 33.7 shots against their ‘Minder per game which is ranked 14th of all the teams in the playoffs. At this time of year its important to realize that minor team flaws may become festering issues in the Stanley Cup Finals and allowing a team such as Washington to sustain pressure in the offensive zone will be detrimental to the Knights chances. The Knights will be forced to address shots against in this series.

Washington’s defense on the other hand has allowed a paltry 28,2 shot against per game against potent offensive competition so far this playoff season in Columbus, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay). Washington frustrated the Pens and Lightning with their defensive ‘bend but don’t break’ suffocating style and those teams are at least as offensively potent as are the Knights if not more so. Defense is a strong factor in favor of the Capitals.

Advantage: Capitals

Offense

While it’s clear the Knights are quick, fast and skilled they only average 2.87 GPG which ranks them tenth of all sixteen playoff teams. Vegas is extremely resilient however as they tend to answer goals immediately with tallies of their own as evidenced by the fact that against the Jets they scored eight of the nine goals scored after any game was tied!  The Knights 27.8 scoring chances per game is best among teams in this year’s second season with a minimum of ten games played. The Knights are an opportunistic squad that attack opponents with four unrelenting lines even though their scoring basically comes from the top two groups.

Washington’s offense is power based and very effective as they average 3.47 GPG, the highest of all playoff teams except the Penguins. The Capitals have offensive stars with recognizable names with guys like Ovechkin, Backstrom and Oshie but they are deeper in talent than is Vegas and in this final series I believe this will be apparent. Washington puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses as they get production from all four lines which is something Vegas lacks, depth on offense.

Advantage: Washington

Coaching

These two Coaches are both world class men and coaches. I see little difference. Trotz coached in a Conference semi-final prior and has eleven playoff coaching appearances while Gallant is in his second playoff appearance as a coach having taken the Florida Panthers to the playoffs in 2015-16. Trotz has more playoff experience and Gallant has preven that Vegas hired a great coach.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Special teams become more important the deeper this tournament extends and it is in this area of play that I believe Washington has quantifiable advantage.

-Power Play

The Washington power play is hitting at a 28.8% clip compared to a meager 17.6% for the Knights. Therefore, the Knights must remain disciplined as they already allow abundant shots at their net and if they go shorthanded, it will further stress an already taxed defense and over worked netminder. Team discipline for Vegas is most important.

-Penalty Kill

The Capitals penalty kill is 75.6% effective (compared to the Knights 82.5%). A closer look into who each team played during these playoffs however shows that Knight opponents, the Kings and Sharks were not offensively apt, and the overconfident Jets hobbled into their series with the Knights after a grueling seven games with the Predators. The Capitals faced the hottest offensive team entering the playoffs in the Columbus Blue Jackets then the two top ranked Power Play teams in the playoffs in Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I feel the Capitals will be more than well prepared for anything the Knights can toss at them knowing that the Knights are currently struggling on this phase of the game. I don’t see that changing against the Washington defense.

-Face-Offs Won (FOW)

Face-offs in any hockey game are important in that they determine possession and possession is the preamble to offensive pressure. In one’s own zone face-off control is even more important in that puck possession allows a team to begin transition from defense to offense. Washington’s FOW is 49% which is acceptable understanding that for much of the playoffs their lead C Backstrom (who is their face off stalwart) was injured (hand). Backstrom is now back, healthy and back in the circle for face-offs.

The Golden Knights 47.7% face off success is fourteenth among all playoff teams this year. This is an area they must improve upon if they are going to pressure the Capitals defense with their speed and quickness. 

Special team’s effectiveness in hockey is much like football in that they contribute proportionally to outcome and not every team is as effective with their special teams as others. Small details can pay great dividends in special teams and there’s a clear edge here….

Advantage: Capitals

Intangibles

Here is where my interpretation from decades of watching these Tournaments is drawn upon. I don’t expect everyone to agree with these positions but they are as I state them to be: considerable factors in who will Hoist in 2018 at least in my handicapping process.

-Rest

Make no mistake that the eight to nine days off for Las Vegas is a curse and not an advantage. We saw in several series this year (and regularly in past seasons) that teams with abundant rest have a tough time catching their legs in game one of a series…and that’s with five or six days of rest let alone a full seven or eight! Add to this that every Las Vegas practice since they whupped the Jets has been sold out and people have had to be turned away. The Vegas coach, team and jock strap handlers are the talk of the town as well the Hockey world and for the last nine days they’ve been praised, exalted and interviewed. This is not an ideal scenario for a team with no previous playoff experience that needs to enter the biggest seven game series of their careers focused and firing on all cylinders. There’s no way for them to be able to prepare for what has transpired these last nine days.

Game one advantage in my judgement goes to the Capitals no matter what type of light show extravaganza we witness prior to the contest. In later series games it is understood that rest may and often does compliment the team with days off.  In this series however, I believe the abundant rest prior to the series and the schedule of Stanley Cup Playoff games this year does Vegas well more harm than good.

-Schedule

A potential issue for the Knights is the Stanley Cup schedule. In every 2018 playoff series leading up to this final series, games were played every other night like clockwork. One look into this series and we see that rather than games scheduled every other day this series is: Monday, Wednesday, two days off then Saturday, Monday, then another two days off prior to (each) game five, game six and game seven.

Teams that rely on quickness, precision skating and pin point passing benefit by rhythm and regularity. Stretching out the schedule into a choppy two week plus schedule in no way benefits the rhythm and rhyme a team like the Knights wants/needs to establish to be effective and dominate. In fact, it could be argued that this uneven irregularly set up schedule provides advantage to the team that plays a heavier more physical style and relies less on speed of play and precision which is the Capitals.

It’s my belief that this scheduling (when looking back) will be one of the main contributors to the Golden Knights struggling to maintain their speed, precision passing and early playoff prowess.

-Hockey Gods

To put this simply, the Golden Knights have not  incurred an appropriate amount of organizational, emotional or physical desperation to be able to hoist the Cup. Meanwhile the despair, dejection and underachievement that has been overcome by the Capitals for the last decade plus is tangible. No hockey enthusiast may debate this and it’s Washington’s past futility that drives them toward a Stanley Cup Championship run.

Sure, the Knights are AS focused, sure they’re going to be AS prepared and they absolutely long to win just like the Capitals do, BUT they’ve not been kicked in the teeth, nor have they ever felt the disappointment of constantly coming up short or for that matter even losing a playoff series!. The Knights have not had the opportunity to invest the necessary blood sweat and tears it takes to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup and for this reason and those above I feel the Washington Capitals win this series. 

Series Washington +130                       Prop: Under 5.5 series games +175 (half, may not be available to all)

We'll invest one unit on the series now. If the Capitals lose game one we're coming right back with another. Tonight's game will be posted later if we move. Enjoy the Stanley Cup everyone.

GambLou.com

Profitale Sports Gaming


UFC FN Liverpool Thompson vs. Till "The Till is gone" - 5/26/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight night Liverpool, England. Below is my breakdown of the main event between Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Darren ‘the shill’ Till. I demean Till on purpose for fighters that speak shit about being the greatest then miss weight badly only confirm that they are unprofessional and unprepared to be a champion. Till’s missed weight and the organization needed this headliner to make their card in Liverpool profitable. So the result of Till missing is that he sports advantage in a fight in his home town in front of his fans and he enters with unfair advantage. This is a broken system that needs to be fixed as all six fighters who have missed badly in 2018 have gone on to win.

Losing a few percentage points of your pay to own unfair advantage in a fight is clearly an accepted ploy for cheaters and the UFC is burying their head in the sand regarding this tactic that more and more is becoming a plan and a practice.

The UFC MUST address this for it is enables cheaters to benefit at the expense of the professional well-prepared fighter.

It’s impossible to regard the UFC as a legitimate entity when they proclaim that the rules in place do not apply and can be manipulated for something as arbitrary as a ‘family emergency’.

Man does the UFC need some leadership and practice in ethics ….badly.

Here’s my breakdown of the main event published Wednesday May 23 on the VSiN networks publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’.

Published 5-23-18

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night from Liverpool, England. This week they fight on Sunday morning (in the USA) starting at 7:30am PST! The main event will go off about 11:30 am PST so we’ll wake up Sunday morning to left hooks and lattes. Here’s a look at the main event.

Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -115 vs. Darren ‘the Gorilla’ Till -105, 5 rounds Welterweight 170lbs

As discussed previously the UFC is working diligently on exporting their product around the globe and it’s off to England after a couple weeks in South America. As was the case last week, this slate is comprised of relatively obscure fighters and features an abundance of regional European talent. I use a fight card like this for due diligence purposes only obtaining fighter intel for future use in other MMA opportunities.

Sunday’s main event is going to be a competitive affair as we have two dynamic striking based fighters who with an impressive victory should insure themselves a shot at Welterweight champion Tyronn Woodley.

Darren Till is an abrasive, young, brash, English fighter who comes complete with size, power and bad intention. His October demolition of Donald Cerrone (a blown up Lightweight) made Till the talk of the division as the kid is a strong willed, forward pressing, aggressive fighter who talks a big game, at least thus far. Till’s career has spanned a mere five years so he’s still a bit green and in need of refinement. While he is powerful and determined he can also be reckless, wide/wild, and he’s quite one dimensional. He’s a front running fighter meaning he looks like a world beater in the first round but tends to exhaust himself as the fight wears past the first five minutes. Till’s confident in his ability to take the opponent out early and has compromised himself in past fights displaying that lack of experience by taking to frenetic a pace early. I see this as one of his major flaws.

His exuberance to engage in an immediate furious firestorm and his overly aggressive nature tends to completely drain Till later in fights transferring him from a powerful destroyer a lumbering, stationary statue. Those that have made it past the first round with him have all taxed Till and none of those fighters are of Thompson’s championship skill level. In 2015 against Nicholas Dalby Till was clearly ahead after two rounds only to be battered in the third round and settle for a draw. In his fight prior to the Cerrone devastation against a journeyman fighter in Velickovic he again slowed late in round two and earned a close decision. I did mention that his is a scheduled five round fight eh?

Till will be dangerous early in this fight but in my judgement he has many holes in his fight game. He’s a typical English striking based fighter in that he stands erect then as he expends abundant energy he slows substantially and drops his arms. Later in fights he lacks any quickness if he had any to begin with, his defense becomes lax if nonexistent and his erect stature makes him an easy target to hit. Till’s rarely had to fight from the floor nor has he been in the Octagon with an experienced, diverse, precision striking veteran like Thompson.

Stevie Thompson’s on the other hand happens to be a most polished and professional fighter who’s gone five rounds twice recently against current Welterweight Champion Woodley. He’s been in the Octagon with the best fighters of the division and has dominated. He’s beaten names like Hendricks, MacDonald and Masvidal as well took Woodley to a draw before losing their second five round Championship bout.

Thompson is a Kempo/kickboxing/Jujutsu artist who’s versed enough with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to be able to hold great advantage over Till on the mat should he decide to take him there which I believe may be a real possibility.  Anything Thompson can do to force the youthful Brit to expend energy is going to enable Thompson, a veteran of several five round fights to appropriate distance between he and Till then batter the Brit with a barrage of precision striking from arms, legs, knees and elbows once the youth tires and he will tire.

Thompson will employ steady movement to control distance and keep Till on the outside and force him to rush inside to engage the ever-moving fluid striking Thompson. Sunday morning you’ll see Thompson acting as a matador in the first round and Till the bull as he tries to overwhelm Thompson and gore him with early explosive engagement.

Thompson must not engage early with Till and allow the Englishman to start tossing those wide Sunday shots rather he needs to stick to the plan that will be evasiveness early. Thompson will want to batter in oncoming bull with strikes and employ a steady leg kick attack to slow the brash young brawler. Movement, fluid counterstriking and a constant leg attack will force Till to expend energy in an attempt to run down the cagier veteran and try to overwhelm him with his strength.

I view Darren Till as a dangerous prospect but I believe he has been pushed a bit to far too fast in this evolution to become a Champion. I believe this fight goes a long way in determining how long it will take the Englishman to learn the many other aspects of mixed martial arts other than pure youthful power. Till in there Sunday against a more polished precision-based fighter with experience and Championship mettle and for those reasons I view Thompson to be value priced.

Till’s going to earn his PhD. In MMA the hard way Sunday morning when he steps into the Octagon with a man who is more complete than he in every single aspect of MMA fighting save for brute strength and early power.

Thompson -120

Update 5-26-18

Till missed weight badly and is basically cheating to gain edge in this fight. He did this either out of stupidity because he's been flapping his jaws and eating flap jacks and/or because he knows he needs an angle for he's completely outclassed in this fight save for early power. I hate cheats. Till get's his degree in an arse whupping tomorrow. Don't miss this beat down.

If Till’s travesty was not bad enough now the other local Liverpoolian on the card Molly (more meatballs please) McMann missed weight by a couple pounds then after forty more minutes of cutting to take the last pound off stepped back on the scale at the same weight as when she missed. The local fighters are really spitting up all over themselves this morning. Anyway, McMann could barely walk upon her first miss and enters this fight against a fighter well prepared to make a statement, fresh and ready to fire. Robertson is a grappler/wrestler and is prepared to make a splash in the UFC. I believe this fight does hit the floor especially in lieu of the weigh-in results and once on the floor this is all Robertson.

Robertson +150

I'm monitoring another couple fights and will add via @Twitter tomorrow should the prices get where I need toehm to go. Good Luck to all and enjoy the fights...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

5-26-18 5am EST

Robertson +150

5-23-18 9:30am EST

Thompson -120