UFC fox 26 Lawler vs. Dos Anjos: Canadian Mount...ies - 12/16/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the second to last UFC fight card of 2017. 

We’re tickled to see time tick away on ’17 as we have a distaste for the flavor of fanciful Favorites as Fav’s are firing at a 66.4% clip this past year running a breezy 281-119-23.  The numbers speak for themselves, and those chalk results reinforce to us that we must remain selective and hone in on fighters we feel are prepared to offer their best effort on fight night.  In tonight’s card, here are the mutts we find potentially mangy in Manitoba.  We have five releases for tonight's card and they're avaialble for a modest fee.  If we lay and egg all clients will get thier fee returned which is a policy we employ for all fight cards. 'Swing it Easy'

Here's our free release for UFC Fox 26

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Dos Anjos -115 vs. Lawler +105

We released Lawler +110 yesterday soon after the weigh-ins.  This is another line that has flipped with Lawler opening -155.  We’re always learning in this racket and tonight we’ll surely learn something for we believe the flow of hay on RDA is misplaced.  Lawler is the much larger man with advantage in power, experience, chin and all-day cardio.  While RDA has looked magnificent in the Welterweight division since he moved up from 155  the fact remains that he’ll be giving away advantage in height and length (both legs and arms) against a competent striker with dynamic wrestling ability and take down defense. 

Those feeling Robbie has lost his edge may be correct, but he has not shown that to be the case.  In fact, we believe quite the opposite that RDA is made for Robbie and that he’ll come forward to  press Lawler and smother him which is a plan of attack Lawler has defended in many prior victims.  Lawler at plus money is a value

Lawler +110

Ponzinibbio -165 vs. Perry +155

Potentially a pure punch fest between Ponzi and Perry here makes us all anticipate this one.  Perry is regarded by we at GambLou World HQ as a barroom brawler that is learning the mixed martial arts game and for that reason we view him as a reasonable underdog in this spot.  Ponzi has a more developed mixed martial arts arsenal in every category (except for pure power punching and the capacity of the chin) and he’ll surely embrace the plan laid out earlier by Alan Jouban when he painted Perry from distance and forced the brawler to eat loads of leather.  Perry is tough and determined but must fight from inside the pocket to mask his lack of footwork and tactic.  The cat and mouse in this match-up lies in whether Perry can get Ponzi to brawl while the Brazilian will need to use his legs and keep distance which will allow him to batter the bull on his way inside to brawl.  We like Ponzi here as the more complete fighter, but we do recognize Perry’s potential power, so we must work to minimize exposure here.  We see the winner of this fight stopping the opponent, so we’ll press down the price on Ponzi in this fashion

Ponzinibbio  pts. Handicap -3.5 -120  

Cirkunov -160 vs. Teixeira +150

We believed the original line set for this fight was correct with Glover -155 based on his experience, body of work, boxing ability and floor capability.  Teixeira has been in wars and is 37 years of age, but we feel he is still a top five fighter in the division.  Cirkunov is raw, overly hyped and in for a huge test tonight for he steps way up in class off a brutal early KO in his last outing.  Cirkunov has mucho to prove to himself coming off that KO while Glover is aware that if he simply takes this kid down for a maul on the mat he can effectively drain him of his energy and then eventually paint him into submission via ground and pound, wrestling or striking.  This fight will demonstrate that Cirkunov is not quite ready and Glover is not quite gone.

Teixeira +150

LaPrise -145 vs. Bofando +135

After Bofando’s last performance we chiseled a ‘fade’ in our memory bank moving forward into future match-ups based on his mediocre level of competition and the raw manner which he fought.  While fast, athletic and powerful he is also raw and untested by firm competition.  He steps up into at least firm competition when he tangles with LaPrise a Canadian fighter who is more experienced, more precise in striking and offers a solid ground game which in our view we will witness tonight.   LaPrise will need to weather the furious onslaught that the banger Bofando will bring but once these two get into the meat of the fight we’ll see that the prey is Bofando.

LaPrise -145

Di Chirico -120 vs. Bamgbose +110

These fighters have underachieved to this point.  Tonight, we feel it is Di Chirico whose hand get raised based on his more developed fight arsenal both offensively and defensively.  Bamgbose has a four-minute window where he can inflict serious damage before he slows to a crawl and loses the slim amount of precision punching he possesses.   Provided the taller, younger Italian kid can weather that early storm we feel he’ll eventually immerse the imposter with elbows and perhaps even finish Bamgbose.  Bamgbose needs more time.

Di Chirico -120 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Plan your work then Work your plan - 12/11/2017

Each Monday we publicize the previous week’s receipts which are tabulated to monitor our profitability.  All business realizing any success must regulate monetary output, maximize profitability and account for all income.  Profitable Sports Gaming is strictly business to us so we utilize Monday’s to publicly account for results and track profit to the penny.

-Let’s Account-

UFC

We realized a 2-2 +1.3u result in the UFC Saturday.  After a dismal result the week previous it was important to get back to the bottom line with the fights.

Favorites were only 6-5-2 for FN 123 bringing their total for 2017 to 281-119-23 (66.4%).

GambLou 2017:  48-60  44.44%   +12.33 units +12.18 ROI

While these numbers are weaker than in past years we’ve never really tracked Chalk as realizing this form of dominance so while off we will do what we do, dance with dynamic dogs and while scarce in 2017 we do feel there is a correction in canines coming.  Hello 2018.

NFL Week 14:

3-2 +.8u

We must say that late October and November we challenging months for NFL profitability.  We work diligently to track the public and side with the Makers as a whole.  While often successful in that positioning we deal with results similar to what the House realizes though we do not wager on each and every game.  Good weeks for the public often mean an off week here at GambLou.com World HQ and when the public gets blistered we bluster! 

Suffice it to say that we believe there are some good times ahead for contrarian gaming as we enter bowl season, the final weeks of the NFL and their playoffs!

We perform dynamic Due Diligence, We remain supremely Selective and we manage our Profitability to the penny.  These three foundations are the fulcrum to our success.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN123 Swanson vs. Ortega: Kimura's from Cali - 12/9/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to one the few remaining UFC fight cards for this year.  We here at GambLou HQ are elated that the ’17 tour is about to close for the hordes of fight Fav fanciers have feasted on we disappointed dog dwellers. 

To date (based on our tracking of closing lines) Favorites in the UFC 2017 as 275-114-21 (67%) which is enough to make a grown man yelp.  That said, we believe in our process and while the year has not been banner it has been profitable, so we’ll remain committed to dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and practice precision Money Management for those comprise the fulcrum for Profitable Sports Gaming

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Ramos -410 vs. Gruetzemacher +370

Respect the bookmaker is one of the first lessons one must incorporate when competing with said bookmaker.  Ramos opened a fair Fav at -180 and has been bombed by chalk chasers up to -410.  While Ramos is talented we feel his abilities can wane after a furious five minutes so if Gruetz can weather the early storm and allow his grinding style to kick in his complete cardio does put him in position to pull the rug out from Ramos. ‘Swing it Easy’

Gruetzemacher +370 (half)

Alcantara -190 vs. Perez +175

We believe Alcantara is at the end of a great career and while he looked superb in his submission of Luke Sanders last out it is our belief that he drew to a five while hitting on 16 when he won that fight.  Our reasons for that are the topic of another discussion but we feel Iuri is susceptible to a pressing, forward moving, space eliminating, grinding, wrestling based fighter and that is exactly what Perez is.  Perez is going to complete what Sanders started but didn’t finish.

Perez (Alejandro) +175

Moraes -140 vs. Sterling +130

Here’s the one fight we released early this week.  Moraes is the Brazilian fighter but will want this fight to be a stand-up affair while the American, a wrestling based fighter will absolutely need to get this fight to the mat for his advantage is in the ugly mangy mauling.  This fight sets up as Moraes being a tough hombre early but Sterling’s speed, athleticism and improving strike game should allow him to slow the slugger over time and eventually get this fight into the clasp.  Clasp is one important step for a muck on the mat where Sterling’s size and strength should provide him ample advantage.  Sterling’s been in with tough, strong dynamic fighters and has proven to be a worthy rising talent.  Moraes is at least up to the level of fighter Sterling’s faces so it will take Aljo’s top effort to get his hand raised.  Sterling’s opportunity to prove he is a contender at Featherweight is tonight.

Sterling +130

Swanson -115 vs. Ortega +105

On our appearance this week with Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) on the Fantasy Sports Network (@FNTSYSportsnet) we discussed Ortega vs. Swanson and advised waiting to move on the then -120 for we believed cash on Cub would allow the line (then to gain value….and value it did gain.  Ortega at the time of this writing is +105 and we’ll gladly jump that price.  Swanson’s last war with Choi is a compelling reason we feel the younger, bigger, longer grappling based fighter on the improve is live.  Swanson will require space for his stand up and while he will own a striking advantage it’s attrition that we feel will be the difference in this fight.  A five-round affair is the key for the Ortega plan will mandate that he make Cub effort for the first few rounds to take some of the strength from his legs then get this fight to the floor where Ortega will own tremendous advantage over Swanson and perhaps even finish the proud warrior.   Pass the torch?

Ortega +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 


UFC 218 Holloway vs. Aldo: Double leg from Detroit - 12/2/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 218.  We’re in December and racing down to the last handful of fight cards for 2017.  We’ll refer to ’17 as the year of the Chalk as to date (counting last night’s TUFF results) Chalk stands 265-111-21 which is a smooth 66.9%

Selectivity, a practice we preach ad nauseum along with appropriate Due Diligence have allowed us to realize a win rate in 2017 of 45.10% outperforming actual dog results this year....and we're not done for we see a few real ugly mutts on today's slate from the Motor City.  Here's one of the releases from our UFC 218 slate.  

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Cejudo -295 vs. Pettis +265

Cejudo has had mucho happen to him since the first time he was unable to meet Pettis in the Octagon (hand injury).  Pettis is the younger man, a striker who holds advantage in length/reach and through these last month’s took another fight (a dominating win over Moreno) and has carried himself with a confident composure that I feel is a tell for Sergio performing his best tonight against a fighter in Cejudo that will own wrestling advantage yet chooses to rarely use such advantage in his fights.  Cejudo best get this to the ground because if he does not we here at GambLou World HQ believe Sergio could piece Henry up in a stand-up affair. 'Swing it Easy'

Pettis +265 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN122 Bisping vs. Gastelum: Antagonism in Asia - 11/24/2017

Welcome UFC fight Enthusiasts to the UFC’s premier appearance in China.  In many of these fights we’ll witness debuting Chinese (and an Indian) fighters.  Our conservative nature is such that rather than invest in fighters we know little about we’ll choose to observe these fights and gather data for future profit opportunity.  We have targeted a couple of matchups we feel offer gaming value and present us with a fighter in position to post a top effort. 

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Mazany +125 vs. Wu -145

Wu sports length and is younger but at 21 her youth may give way to inexperience.  Wu’s competition level in her short career has been subpar even if we judge it in a regional perspective.  Mazany trains at X Couture, she was beaten by Sarah McMann who is a beast (no loss of respect there) and has also been in the Octagon against Juliana Pena. Mazany opened -245 and is now the mutt.  I know the masses are wonderstruck over Wu, but I am not a believer.  We’ll snag the value with the more complete experienced fighter.  Never underestimate the bookmaker.

Mazany +125 (half)

Xiaonan -135 vs. Curran +125

In my estimation this is a set up fight.  Curran who arrives with an extremely limited skill set has been shipped in here to be lamb to the debuting Chinese fighter.  Remember fans that the UFC is full throttle into a campaign designed to expose the sport to each corner of the world which will build its market and revenues.  The best way to keep the fire going is to highlight the local fighters and allow them to realize success in front of their home Countrymen which sews the seeds of MMA to the millions.  In our estimation we’ll see the local Chinese fighters get a chance at recognition and success rather than being overwhelmed by athletes outside of their Country.  In the end this is good for the UFC’s business.

Xiaonan -135

Caceres -135 vs. Guan +125

Caceres is the more experienced fighter by far.  He’ll sport advantage in quickness, speed and overall fight ability.  Caceres’ issues in the past center around his chin and his propensity to rely on his God given talents to out slick opponents not on his level of athleticism.  In doing so, He drops his hands and uses dynamic movement to slip, slide and shimmy his way out of threat.  Guan is a fighter who is more stoic in approach and well less improvisional than Caceres.  His competition has been regional and not the level of competition Alex has faced but we do recognize one name on his past record.  Shane Young.  Shane Young is the fighter last week who took a fight with Alex Volkanowski on short notice and (to me) showed himself to be quite a solid stand-up fighter.  Anyway, Guan beat Young which is impressive to say the least.  To us this fight comes down to whether Guan can keep the stand-up pressure on Alex and make him back up and defend strikes.  If Caceres can get this to the floor he has advantage but Guan at 31 does have ten years of experience (albeit regional) behind him.  We feel the local will bring his best effort in this UFC debut and if this does go to the scorecards Caceres best whitewash Guan otherwise we could get a little taste of…. Chinese cooking.

Guan +130

Jingliang -190 vs. Ottow +180

Pressure breaks pipes. 

Jingliang has carried the flag for Chinese mixed martial arts for years and has gone it almost alone and with total dignity. On fight day he’ll surely take pride from what he has helped build in China for the local fighters interested in the MMA’s and especially the UFC.  In this co-main event he not only fights a capable opponent, he also fights a most suitable and ominous adversary in our estimation, distraction.  Jingliang has should take great pride in being the pioneer of world class MMA in his Country and in the UFC’s first visit to China let’s not overlook the pressure that falls on Jingliang here.  Not only must he try to beat his opponent but by his experience and position he’ll knowingly or not also serve as mentor to the local fighters, trainers, media etc.  It’s Jingliang’s camp, circle of professionals and contacts that are fielding the logistical/navigational issues for this most important event in Shanghai.  Remember too people this is Mainland China and the Chinese can be Nationalistic and at least proud…especially proud of their history and capability in the world’s oldest form of competition, Fighting.

So, beside the periphery distractions just discussed there’s the opponent for Jingliang, Zak Ottow.  Ottow will present a special challenge to Jingliang because he sports a solid wrestling background and can surely strike.  While both combatants are capable on the floor and stand-up it is Ottow who in past fights has shown an ability to fight a full fifteen minutes without noticeably slowing.  Jingliang puts mucho into his punches which tends to affect his cardio later in fights.  We believe fighting in this situation is not ideal for Jingliang and that the combination of he and his camp playing host to this card coupled with the capability of opponent is a poor combination.  Ottow opened +130 and is now +180. We suggest readers continue to watch this in the hope that this one continues to swell as the wee hours of Saturday AM (fight time here in the PST) arrive.

Ottow +180 (or better)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 


UFC FN 121 Werdum vs. Tybura: Betting on the 'bitzers' - 11/18/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to Fight night form Australia.  Tonight’s card will be regarded as a due diligence card rather than one for heavy investment.  I say that because there are interesting match-ups on the slate but few positions I feel offer enough price to make it worthy of our investment.  We’ve provided a couple of early releases which we’ll break down as well offer another side we feel does offer value. This release was written this aM but the hosting station for gambLou went down. Sorry for the late posting

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Camacho -125 vs. Brown +115

We released Camacho -130 believing that the number was more than fair.  In fact, the line did rise until ‘the crank’ missed weight by a nickel which is unprofessional and bothersome.  We pride ourselves on getting the best of the number and in this instance, we missed.  The key for our look at Camacho was a full camp and entering ready to make fifteen full minutes.  He’d best prove us correct.  Brown enters angry and Frank best crank as opposed to look like a tank.

Brooks -455 vs. Lentz +410

Brooks is the larger man and arguable the more capable wrestler, but he has underperformed in his UFC run.  Lentz is seemingly made for him, but no one has told Lentz that.  Brooks opened -385 and has been bet up to current.  ‘Swing it Easy’

Lentz +410 (half)

Matthews -130 vs. Velockovic +120

Previously released was Velockovic +125 so we do own a slight advantage over the marketplace.  Matthews once regarded an Aussie upcomer has bumbled in his last two resulting in this attempt to step up in weight and compete at 170.  Matthews will be giving away decent advantages in size, structure and reach to the Serb although Jake will be the faster man in the Octagon.  We have seen recently that fighting closer to one’s natural weight can be very advantageous and while that may be the case we feel for Matthews it may not work ideally in this spot.  Velockivic in our view will strive to control distance and fight Matthews at range giving him his greatest advantage for victory.  The Serbian fighter is quite well rounded, has displayed great heart and cardio in past fights and will need to keep this standing which we feel Matthews is more than willing to acquiesce to.  Matthews may well find himself frustrated then rushing in which is a recipe for disaster against this long rangy Serbian striker

Velockivic +125

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

*bitzer- Aussie slang for a mangy mutt


UFC FN120: Poirier vs. Pettis: A Veterans Day Salute - 11/11/2017

Good day gaming Enthusiasts and yes, the title today has nothing to do with the fights rather our title today is intended to give our respect and admiration to the authentic hero’s in this fine country of ours, our Veterans.  Those now serving, those that once served, and all deceased service individuals paved the way for us to be able to drink lattes on Saturday morning and discuss the game of fighting.  While we acknowledge that we have no ability to grasp what real fighting for one’s country can be like, we can sure tip our hats, pay our respects and acknowledge what outstanding selfless people you all are.  Today we pay our total respect to all veterans!

Regarding today’s card we find little to get excited about by way of the mangy mutt category so rather than trying to press it we’ll offer a couple of breakdowns but mostly use this fight card as due diligence.  If something changes, we’ll post to @Twitter and make it obvious we are making a release. 

Good Luck and Salute’ to our Veterans.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date results for all sporting events we work are available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability. After all, it’s business).

Moraes -115 vs. Dodson +105

Moraes may be a metaphor for Muhammad (Belal).  He arrives to his second fight in the UFC as a worthy top contender for the division and he gets two completely brutal matchups in Assuncao and now JD.  Moraes is a solid striker with both hands and legs and was not quite active enough to overcome Assuncao so we know he’s prepared to take this fight to Dodson.  The issue is that Dodson is freakishly quick, fast and athletic and could not be a more diverse style of fighter to be in there with coming off a grueling affair with the more deliberate Assuncao.  Moraes best not try to stand in this fight with JD for Dodson is too fast, has too diverse a of skill set and has cardio to be able to remain effective for fifteen minutes.  Provided Dodson stays active he’ll be too diverse for Moraes to catch up with.  This has decision written all over it unless Moraes catches JD or gets caught lunging in as he becomes aware that this style of fighter is a poor one for his talents.

Dodson +105

'Swing it Easy' Special

Brown -355 vs. Sanchez +320

This is Browns retirement party yet in my recollection few fighters fare well when such an announcement is made.  Brown looked like death on the scale and we do question his focus while clearly most do not as Brown opened -260 and the parlay playing pukes pushed him up to current pricing.  We’ll ‘Swing it Easy’ here and hope a big bloated Diego can act the dog catch Brown and shut out his lights for it’s Diego’s only path to victory in our estimation.

Sanchez ITD +560 (.25u for 1.4u)

Pettis -105 vs. Poirier -105

These guys look like mirror images of one another yet in our perspective Pettis’ career is waning and Poirier with a win continues an ascent for he is only 27 and has some tread left on the tire.  Pettis while a proud warrior has lost the zip, the zing and the flash that allowed him to control the division for a time.  Though Anthony’s skills have eroded to a degree make little mistake that if Poirier does not control the space in this fight he could get cracked.  Pettis requires space to fight his fight.  He does not want to allow Poirier into the pocket and this will require legwork which consumes cardio for fighters especially aging ones.  Pettis’ ability to use his patented open stance body kick* will also be squelched by the southpaw stance of Poirier which adds dimension for Dustin in his approach to landing strikes without having to deal with those lethal kicks. 

Poirier -105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

*Phil Mackenzie Bloody Elbow “UFC Norfolk: Dustin Poirier vs. Anthony Pettis Toe to Toe Preview - A complete breakdown” 11-11-17

 

 


Money Morning: Week 9 NFL & UFC - 11/6/2017

As promised gaming Enthusiasts our week 9 NFL results are now complete. 

GambLou.com NFL clients realized 4-2 + 2.05u week which brings our season record to:

23-19     55%     +4.85u (at $1,000.00 per unit)     10.28% ROI

We turn the page after this recap and prepare ourselves for NFL week 10.

 

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to Money Morning where we tabulate the weeks profitability.  In the NFL we are still alive to week 9 so that accounting will appear tomorrow.

UFC

In UFC 217 Favorites finally faltered and realized a 5-5-1 tally.  This is the first card in 2017 where the mangy mutt was able to stay on par with the chalky chumps.

To date in the UFC Fav’s are running at a 233-99-18 clip (66.5%).

GambLou.com UFC 2017 results:

40-51   43.96%    +10.78u    +12.59% ROI

The first three quarters of 2017 saw Fav’s dominate the UFC and it’s been until this last quarter that the hounds have finally begun to howl.  We’re all over finishing strong in each sport we cover and the UFC is no different.  One look at our win percentage of 43.96% clearly displays that we are running well ahead of the rate of rabid dogs thus far this year.  Our process is working and we remain committed to the bottom line.  After all…..it’s Business!

Tomorrow our NFL results will be posted but suffice it to say we’ll bank bottom line in week 9!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 217 Bisping vs. St-Pierre: RNC at MSG - 11/4/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 217 from Madison Square Garden (the fight capitol for forever) in New York City.  This fight card is steeped in mighty matchups.  We’ve pared the slate down to a handful of potential pup positions designed to deliver deposits. 

UFC 2017 Favorites 228-94-17 67%

With chalk delivering at such a pace we must remain very selective in our approach but with that said we also believe in the undeniable truth that is regression so we’ll no doubt take our own advice tonight and ‘Swing it Easy’.  Here's today free release.  Our whole card is available here for a mere pittance to any interested.  We'll credit your tokens back if we do not make you a profit. That's our pledge....now

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date results for all sporting events we are active with is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment data while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Bisping -105 vs. St. Pierre -105

We’ve been on VSiN, Morency Unfiltered and other local Phoenix radio shows proclaiming that GSP has simply been away from the fury of the fight game and inside the Octagon for too long to be able to come back after four years and whup up on his hand-picked opponent.  Mentally there are few who could rival GSP but as his mind has continued to grow stronger these older fighters constantly feel that their carcass keeps up.  It does not. GSP remembers how to dominste mentslly but physically his body will not be able to accomodate his mind. GSP hand picked this fight and we feel it may have been a large error.

Bisping has been active and fighting high level competition for the past four years that GSP has been eating ice cream.  He’ll be the bigger man in the Octagon and arrives with exceptional cardio, solid take down D and power in his punches.  For these reasons we feel Bisping is in position tonight to win but he’d best not leave it up to the judges simply because there is more cheese in a GSP vs. Conor fight than there is Bisping getting his hand raised then retiring which I feel WILL happen if Mike wins.  This fight is a mistake in my opinion for GSP who will realize that he retired for good reason four plus years ago…. these fighters never learn from history.

Bisping -105

Gall -120 vs. Brown +110

Brown fights out of Queens NY and Gall is a Joisey boy.  These two know of one another and bring different specialties to this fight.  We view Gall as more limited in arsenal yet what he does excel at, the ground game and submission applications he is quite versed with.  Brown will not want to be flopping on the floor with mickey tonight.  Brown is the more verse fighter who’s faced superior competition and we feel has the take down ability to keep this fight standing and at distance to keep Gall where he is underdeveloped. Brown opened a fair -150 and is now offering value at plus money.

Brown +110

Jedrzejcyyk -750 vs. Namajunas +500

JJ is getting too cocky and too intoxicated with the power and fame being a young world class talent.  It may not be tonight, but the fade button has been hit on JJ, you heard it here first.  Anyway, JJ getting in Rose’s face and mentioning her family history (Rose’s Father had mental issues) and calling her weak because of it is simply going too far.  The karma kings have displayed that this kind of obtuse dialog is never a good idea.  JJ will try to demolish Rose with strikes and Rose will need to do all she can to try to get this from the feet and to the floor to have a chance at beating JJ.  ‘Swing it Easy’

Namajunas +600 (half) 

Garbrandt -220 vs. Dillashaw +190

We’ve been trying to sidestep this fight and watch it because we do feel Cody is a legitimate slight favorite.  That said, we are not of the believe that he is anywhere near a -200 plus chalk and with that in mind we’ll continue to watch this number for if TJ goes to or above the +200 number the trigger will be pulled…. patience here as we’ll announce on Twitter if we make a formal move on this fight.

Dillashaw +190

Costa -310 vs. Hendricks +255

This is the ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’ fight.  Costa is a huge chiseled statuesque fighting specimen with huge power, bad intentions and freakish potential.  He steps in with a doughy looking Johny Hendricks that is a wrestling based fighter fighting at a weight class he is undersized for (185).  Undersized and clearly disregarded by the betting public forces us to overlook the fact that Johny has changed camps a few times (bad signal here) and enters this fight with Jax/Wink in corner and the realization that he’s out for employment should he get mowed down in this fight like most feel will happen.  Johny has the experience and wrestling capability to test the larger striker, take him to the floor and make him strain using up energy and setting up a nice little upset for the cagey Hendricks.  Johny live!

Hendricks +255             Over 1.5 rounds +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Breeders Cup Classic: Two Horse Pro's discuss - 11/3/2017

Welcome Horse enthusiasts to Gamblou.com’s coverage of the Triple Crown of Horse racing and the Breeder’s Cup Classic.

We introduce to you today Brutha Shue’s (@Drewshoo on twitter) new Pony partner in these dialogues one JimmyQ (@JimmyQVegas on twitter).  Jimmy has been carrying me around the horse track for years doing nothing but pouring profit my way from the ponies and he teams up today with Shue to do their inaugural dialogue for Saturday’s Breeders Cup Classic.  We start by Jimmy responding to Shue about the sport of Kings as a whole.  Here’s their brief discussion then their suggested wagers….

Q:  I agree that the Kentucky Derby is the best day of the racing year.  I've had the pleasure of taking in 4 Derby's in person.  I was able to witness victories by Smarty Jones in 2004 (Still to this day I wonder how did he not win the Triple Crown?)  Giacomo in 2005, Barbaro in 2006, and Animal Kingdom in 2011.  Now that I'm typing this I realize I need to get back there and have another Mint Julip!!  As for trakus, the best way I can explain it is it's basically like having GPS on a horse so it's the most accurate information you will get anywhere.  When you are watching the Churchill signal and you see the numbers at the bottom of the screen kind of floating along that's trakus equipment being used.  It's inside the horse’s saddle cloth and measures their MPH at different segments of the race including their peak MPH and also how many total feet the horse traveled.  I've been able to find a way to incorporate this information into my handicapping so that it works for me.  The only bad news is the fact that not every track uses trakus as it is quite costly.  I'll talk to you as we get closer to race day

Shue:  Q - I'm almost half way through running my numbers for The Classic and I'm working on MUBTAAHIJ (12-1).  He ran two races in Meydan, and I'm curious to know what his fractions were - if you have the Trakus numbers.  And also in his race at Churchill Downs on Nov 25, 2016 - how fast did he run that last furlong.  As of this writing, he sounds pretty interesting.

Q:  Well Done Drew!  You have about a 10 length lead on me in your preparation but I'll be taking a deep dive tonight and will also answer the very fair question you had around tracks without trakus and how I assign those horses a figure, etc.  I'm excited for the Classic!!  It should be a beauty and best of Luck on your wagers....Mine will be out by morning.  Talk to you soon

Shue and Q drop more knowledge on the nags before each delivers their final positions.

Shue:  OK so here's the way I see it.  The class, and rightfully so, are ARROGATE (2-1) and GUN RUNNER (9-5).  Not sure Gun Runner can make the 1 1/4 and be in front at the wire - and Arrogate is a professional at that distance - so no money to be made on them - unless they somehow falter - which IMHO, would leave us with MUBTAAHIJ (12-1) and WEST COAST (6-1).  Those two can close very well at 1 1/8 of a mile - and I think they can both make the 1 1/4 and be on the lead at the wire.  I'm going to throw in WIN THE SPACE (30-1) just for fun.  He can sure close at 1 1/8 - and quite oddly, 'pulled up' in his last two 1 1/4 mile runs.  Maybe the Greek trainer has been saving up for this day to finish first - so at 30-1, I'm going to put him in my box.  So here's my action:

 

                                           $5.00 W-P-S #3 Win the Space (30-1) $15.00

                                            $10.00 W-P-S #6 Mubtaahij (12-1)       $30.00

                                            $10.00 W-P-S #8 West Coast (6-1)       $30.00

                                              $1.00 Trifecta Box (5 horses)            $60.00

#1 Arrogate (2-1) #3 Win the Space (30-1) #5 Gun Runner (9-5) #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) #8 West Coast (6-1)

                                                                 Total Wager                        $135.00

 

Q-  Alright Shue.  My homework is done and I'm making a BOLD move and I'm tossing Gun Runner out of the Top 3 for many of the reasons you brought up as I too have big time questions about how he'll hold up the final 1/8 of a mile.  I think there will be others traveling much better at that point in the race that will out kick him down the stretch.  This will allow me to get another horse with more value into a couple of my exotics.  I'm a firm believer that when you have 2 short priced horses you need to take a stand somewhere even if you end up having your head between your legs afterwards.  With that said, my Win $ is going to be on #8 WEST COAST (8-1) You have to love how this horse came into his own this summer and he just keeps getting better with each race.  I'm hoping he takes that next big step forward in the Classic.  If he doesn't get it done then I do think it's probably b/c #1 ARROGATE (2-1) returned to his old form and takes another Classic.  I look for Mike Smith to be aggressive from the rail today and try to put him on the lead if he can get it.  The last 2 races Arrogate has gotten a little lazy mid race and left himself with way too much to do in the lane. I know everyone is going to be watching anxiously to see how he handles this Del Mar surface.  Also a good sign for Arrogate backers that he is 3 for 3 life time when breaking from the inside post.   I'm throwing in a few double digit horse that I think might not be able to win but can certainly run 2nd or 3rd if things go their way.  #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) with a win first time out for the Baffert barn and I could see him having an even greater feel for him this time and fully cranked.  #9 Gunnevera (30-1) ran the best race of his life in the Travers and was very wide at the beginning of the race so ultimately ran much farther than his competition.  If there is a fight up front today for the lead this is a horse that will benefit greatly.  #10 Pavel (20-1) is lightly raced at this point in his career and is improving and I was impressed with his last out effort.  A repeat effort could have him somewhere in the exotics.  Here is how I'm betting it.

$50.00 Win 8

$20.00 Ex 8/1

$15.00 Ex 1/8

$3 Ex 1,8/6,9,10                           $18.00

$1 Tri 1,8/1,6,8,9,10/1,6,8,9,10    $24.00

Total Investment                         $127.00

There it is Horse Enthusiasts.  Two unique perspectives with affordable wagering tips on top.  We'll be following our two Pro's advice closely and wish you all the best of luck this weekend at the races!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 


Money Morning: NFL & UFC deposits - 10/31/2017

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Money Morning.  We report today because we had an NFL middle working last night and results were not complete until this morning.  Weekly comprehensive accounting is necessary for any successful business and to date we see ourselves as the only entity practicing 110% transparency by publishing our results.  We are eager to publish actual results for we understand that few can compete with our profitability when forced to undergo the same rigid reporting criterea that we practice regularly here at GambLou.com. 

UFC

It was a fine weekend bagging Brazilian barkers as we realized a 3-1 +2.5 unit profit on UFC FN 119. 

For 2017 then UFC Favorites are 228-94 (17 fights either pick-em or draws) for a staggering 67%.

With mangy mutts running a tepid 33% in the UFC this year it’s important to recognize that our refined process of Due Diligence, Selectivity and Money Management are keeping us ahead of the win rate for underdogs in the UFC as well allowing us to press profit from a most difficult set of fight results.  We forge forward with the single point of focus being:  Profitability

UFC 2017:  37-48      43.53% win rate     +7.93u     +9.91%ROI

NFL

The public had a terrific week this week in the NFL and that often spells difficulty for we here at GambLou.com World HQ.   In the case of this week we realized a 2-2 result losing a little vig in the process.

The NFL is a grind that for many is too difficult to manage week in and week out.  Our practice is that when winning we flex ourselves into a situation where we focus on profit maximization.  We work stringently to minimize and control any/all loss so a weekend that looks like 2-2 and losing a bit of vig is what we recognize here as the grind of gambling.  We love specifically the NFL grind and find ourselves only about halfway through the season to date.  There's so much profit out there waiting for us that our focus today becomes simply; Week 9 NFL.  We’re just getting warmed up and our practice of working only select Sporting events allows us to hold advantage as this season in the NFL extends and we prepare to fire fresh.  Bring me week 9 NFL!

That’s the report for this week.  Stay focused, conduct comprehensive Due Diligence, stay supremely Selective and Manage every stinking penny for every penny $aved is a penny deposited!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 119 Brunson vs. Machida: Slaying the dragon? - 10/28/2017

Welcome fights Enthusiasts to UFC FN 119.  We’re coming to you live from Las Vegas where we’ll watch the fights tonight with Barry and Lance Fischel (@bdf522 and @lancefischel respectively on twitter) and posse.  We love the interaction twitter affords us and look forward to watching these fights with people I have come to know and respect on this medium we call twitter.  As far as the value in tonight’s card we feel there’s plenty and without much further ado, here’s what we’ll release for today’s card.

Todday's free release: 

Luque -125 vs. Price +115

Luque has more ways to win this and Price while longer and owning some advantage over Luque physically is not as complete a fighter as is the Brazilian.  Luque opened -175 and while we do respect Price, his game is not as complete as the home town kid here.  This fight is going to come down to grit, determination and toughness and for those reasons we see this one getting well into the third round.

Fight starts Round 3 +110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: NFL Profitability update - 10/23/2017

 

Good Morning Handicappers!  It's always a tough task to account for loss but any successful business must practice precision money managment skills to effectively track and report the bottom line and Profitable Sports Gaming is no different.  What we do here is quite different from what most are willing to do and that is recap to the penny our Gaming results EVERY DAD GUMMED WEEK! 

This seperates the pretenders from the legitimate businessmen and it's a practice we have performed since the inception of GambLou.com.  While it's not fun to report the poor result the focus, dedication and drive that posting these results provides us is substantial and our single point of focus from this report forward will be NFL Week 8 profitability.

In week 7 we realized a 2-4 result for a net loss of 2.4 units.

NFL 2017:  17-15    53%   +3.0 U    +8.14ROI

We'll bounce back like rabid defenders after a fumble in the Super Bowl next week.  Stay tuned as we will refocus and rededicate in order to get back to weekly profitability in the NFL

Gamblou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 118: Cerrone vs. Till: Who gets G'dropped in Gdansk - 10/20/2017

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC FN 118.  It’s been a tough week here at GambLou.com World HQ as I have been fighting a staph infection and have had to change medications a couple of times.  How Kevin Lee persevered in the most recent UFC lcard (in main event fashion) to even enter the Octagon with an issue like Staph is dumbfounding and gives me a completely new perspective on Lee no doubt.  We’ll be short on our sole write up this week simply because I have so little mental and physical focus....that said we believe it's PhD time again in the UFC.

Good luck to all.

Cerrone -145 vs. Till +130

Till is a big strong future challenger to the Welterweight Division but every young fighter needs their diploma in how to navigate grizzled veterans in five round affairs.  Till thinks he’s ready (see Kevin Lee) and he’s planning on showing Donald ‘after one punch’ that Cerrone has chosen poorly.  Moving straight in on Cerrone for the kill (a recipe that has worked prior) absolutely will not work for Till (the Cowboy ain’t stupid and is not going to just stand there and trade early) and trying to play counterpuncher is simply not Till’s game for he is a one dimensional fighter at this point in his career and we have not even addressed his cardio.  

We see Till get countered and pieced up by a much more savvy, weathered veteran early then in about round three we’ll witness Cerrone absolutely taking this young Englishman apart.  Just like Lee needed to graduate into the top ranks so too will Till who’ll go out without any thrill.

Cerrone -145

added via @twitter yesterday:                                                                                        Kelleher -110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming