Welcome Enthusiasts to UFC Sunday night fights. There is value in tonight’s card. In the last UFC slate we stood relatively alone choosing to side with the more experienced Benson Henderson as our main event position against the bigger, larger and greener Brandon Thatch. That position was example ‘A’ in why we relish the opportunity to buck the many and stand out with the few! That Bendo position capped a profitable evening for us as we realized a final result of 3-2 +205.00. We strive to uncover unwanted mangy underdogs in all the sporting events we work for we learned long ago that except on rare occasions… chasing chalk can be hazardous to one’s health.
In wagering on the UFC it’s our position that fading aggressive line movement (in a Selective manner) coupled with a deep knowledge of each fighter’s capability, prowess and ‘motivation’ provide us the ability to bank bottom line for we are not in this for fun or amusement…..we work the UFC for profit.
UFC 2015: 14-13 +395.00
(All GambLou.com positions are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated. We do this for transparency, accountability and to easily display bottom line profitability as results for all GambLou.com positions are disclosed each Monday AM).
Trator -210 vs. de la Torre +190
We wonder what Mike de la Torre did to UFC matchmakers to have received the kind of fights he has received since arriving in the UFC. While de la Torre is a well-rounded grinder from one of the top teams in America this draw against Tiago Trator is not a good one for any featherweight in the division. Trator will enter the Octagon the much larger more capable man tonight and while it will not be an easy win for Trator make no mistake about the fact that his arm will be raised at the end of this fight.
Strickland -200 vs. Ponzinibbio +180
We are keenly aware of the major advantage Brazilian fighters own when they fight in their native country. That said Ponzinibbio simply is too limited to be able to overtake the younger, longer, taller American in this spot. We mentioned this fight (and the above fight) on SXMCanadaTalks radio last week with Gabriel Morency. Then the lines on both Trator (-180) and Strickland (-180) offered some 30 cents of extra gaming value. We grabbed both some time ago (separate wagers) and like them both yet today. Let’s parlay with these two and turn a couple chalk plays into a puppy price.
Trator/Strickland +124 (parlay based on current pricing)
Khabilov -575 vs. Martins +445
Rustam Khabilov has been off almost a year since he took Ben Henderson deep into a 5 round bout. As Benson learned Khabilov is a capable fighter and strong as Russian vodka. Clearly, those that ignored Bendo last week (as washed up and desperate) give the Russian fighter mucho credit for that accomplishment as they feast on him like they already know the final result of this matchup. Khabilov opened a fair -210 in this fight for he does face a guy in Martins that will be much the larger man tonight. Martins owns real advantage as a Brazilian fighting in front of his Countrymen (Fightnomics page 291) which is something motivating us in this bout (along with the tremendous wagering value). So rather than Martins +160 (which was in our opinion a fair opening price) we’ll embrace Martins at a grotesque +445 understanding that we will get his best effort for this fight along with the high percentages that go with a Brazilian fighting in front of his Countrymen.
Martins +445 (half)
Barboza -180 vs. Johnson +160
In our opinion this may be one of the better fights thus far in 2015. Barboza will have the tremendous advantage of reach and fighting in front of his country going for him. Barboza will want to stand and strike with Johnson, gain a space advantage and keep Johnson at bay with his power striking. Johnson in our view will offer Edson much more fight than in his recent fights (reference to the mugging, clowning, and ineffective imposter for a fighter that is one Bobby Green). Barboza will need to pit his power and effective kicking against Johnson a fighter that will sport a sizeable speed advantage to go along with his superior wrestling. This match screams fight of the night and while we lean Johnson our approach in this fight (as it always is with underdog positions) is to wait and watch. If we can derive another dime or two from the dog then we will make a position but at current pricing we’ll simply watch what we believe will be the most competitive fight on the card. Watch us on Twitter @GambLou for any notification. This fight did see Johnson +200 at one point but Uncle Louie must have been sleeping and missed the price. Can the parlay players help us get +200 to return?
Silva -230 vs. Mir +200
Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva is used to being a menacing heavyweight who is usually the larger more powerful man in the Octagon. However, with relatively new UFC steroid testing in place the Cro-Magnon throwback will step into the Octagon tonight with the hometown edge but without ‘Mother’s little helper* (the juice he is and has been so used to relying on). Tonight Silva will be only the slightly larger man but not the towering menace he is so used to being for Frank is almost as tall and heavy as ‘Bigfoot’. We don’t view Silva as an overly intelligent fighter and now without his ‘edge’ we feel that his mental frame could be fragile to say it simply. Silva’s goal will be to touch Frank on his porcelain chin with one of his third row haymakers and send him to the Bellator circuit….many feel this is quite possible.
Frank Mir on the other hand has faced large laboring fighters before with success. Mir will need to take this fight to the canvas, fight the giant in a phone booth and keep this one chest to chest which both muzzles the giant’s striking power and keeps Silva in the clasp with the more qualified submission man. Mir will need to use his speed and agility in order to get into clinch with the Giant. Frank fully understands that for this one to go his way he must grope and grovel with Silva….take him deep and force him to tire so that he can be submitted or at least ridden on the canvas with control. While Silva will sport some size and power, Frank’s advantages are his intelligence, speed and quickness. Angelo Dundee taught us many years ago that ‘Styles make fights’ and in this one we have exactly that…..two vastly different styles.
Over 1.5 rounds -115
(Aggressive, announced last week on SXMCanadaTalks)
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