UFC Fox 28 Stephens vs. Emmettt Lights-Out in Orlando - 2/25/2018

Stephens -145

Latife +135

Griffen +320 (half)

Moroz +140 (half)

(added via @Twitter)


UFC FN126 Cerrone vs. Medeiro: 'Teep' in the heart of Texas - 2/18/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 126. I break down the upcoming UFC main event (and other top fights) for publication on the VSiN subscription-based ‘Point Spread Weekly’.  I submit the articles by Tuesday AM each week which is great for handicapping.  The practice of having to submit a complete breakdown by Tuesday AM is challenging as most understand that I prefer to wait until fight day to incorporate all data (up to and including all weigh-ins) prior to releasing positions unless warranted by line movement. Let’s see how the early breakdown compares to my update! Now without further flapping….

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Originally published 2-14-18

This week’s UFC fight slate from Austin, Texas is headlined by Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone who takes on Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros in what is sure to be a Welterweight war. The card features few recognizable names for the casual fight fan but it is a ‘Fight Night’ event and therefore is free to view as early prelims on the UFC’s fightpass at 2:30pm PST then at 3:30pm PST the remaining fights on FS1. At the time of this writing there are only a few fights with lines available so the focus in on the Main event.

Cerrone -160 vs. Medeiros +140

Cerrone hit the UFC in 2011 and has faced twenty-six top fighters in both the Lightweight division (155lb.) and currently the Welterweight division (170lb.). He fights almost four events per year because the guy loves to compete, but he also likes to drink ice cold Budweiser and spend his money. In those past twenty-six fights while he has only been beaten seven times he’s lost his last three fights all in 2017 and has not had his hand raised since Dec. 2016. Age is a double-edged sword in the fight game for there is a fine line between the title and a tumble. 

Cerrone’s workload since he’s entered the UFC is important as a fight is one thing but training to fight four fights per year for almost seven years is a staggering workload for a fighter who’ll be thirty-five in March but he’s well older in fight years. At least he’s taken moderate time off since the Darren Till drubbing but is that really going to provide the Poke with pop? Cerrone may need to try to get this fight to the floor if he is to have a chance at halting the Hawaiian.

This is a benchmark fight, for with a win ‘Cowboy’ remains relevant in the division but lose and he transitions from former championship contender to journeyman gatekeeper that ascending young fighters (See Darren Till Cerrone’s last opponent) will use to pad their resume’. 

Yancy Medeiros is the ship in fighter from Hawaii who has been fighting on cards with fellow Hawaiian Max Holloway.  There’s a groundswell of mixed martial artists emanating from our fiftieth state and Medeiros, who’s won three in a row is top of the list. He’s primarily a stand-up striker with heart, grit, determination and power but dubious strike defense. He tends to get in wars. Medeiros is three inches shorter than Cerrone, but he is the younger man (almost five years) and he’ll have a two-inch arm reach advantage (one-inch leg reach advantage).  Cerrone is a step up in class for Medeiros but the islander will be the faster more explosive combatant in a fight that I see as a stand-up affair.

Cerrone opened -160 and the takeback on Medeiros is +140 as of this writing. Even casual fans of the UFC are aware of ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and it’s my belief that because of that the ‘Makers have shaded the number to Cerrone.  I see this fight as very competitive and feel there’s some line value in Medeiros. As with many sporting events the price on the mangy mutt Medeiros may mature as we approach fight night (Sunday this week) so patience is advised as in an ideal situation I prefer to ingest the weigh-ins prior to making final decisions. That said, this is a profession and scrutinizing these lines is part of the due diligence so we’re always ready to jump if the situation necessitates. Line value must be a point of focus for any handicapper.

-Update 2-18-18 1pm EST-

So, we pulled the trigger on Medeiros +145 on Wednesday and hope subscribers of ‘Point Spread Weekly’ took our advice for if they did (even until Saturday) they could have captured Medeiros at a dog price. If Cerrone were to wander into dog territory would I consider moving on the Cowboy to insure profit? Of course, but the price would need to get to +115 or higher to give that any consideration.

I believe Medeiros is the victor in this fight but because I write this Saturday AM and recognize that today’s fight enthusiasts need insight here it is:

I advise passing on Medeiros at current pricing as the professional’s goal is to get the best of the number and making a move on Medeiros now would represent the worst of the number.  Let’s look elsewhere for value. The total in this fight is Under is 2.5 -135 (opened under -105) while take back on the over 2.5 rounds is +120. I believe this fight to works its way into the later rounds before either of these two warriors acquiesce to the other.  

Texas Tykes, mangy mutts and putrid pups

Pudilova -135 vs. Moras +125

Striker (Pudilova) vs. Moras the submission seeker. Where this fight is fought will tell the tale here for Moras is under developed in her striking and will get pieced up if this fight goes three rounds on the feet.  Moras must weather the early Czech storm then eliminate Pudilova’s distance and cram this fight to the cage. From cage control comes the take down and if Moras can manage to make this a maul on the mat the advantages are hers. Dog or pass

Moras +125 (half)

Joby Sanchez -145 vs. Roberto Sanchez +135

This fight opened a pick but the number has moved toward the better looking, striking based Sanchez (Joby) who has suspect take down defense and finds himself inside the Octagon with a wresting based grinder who will own substantial advantage if he can jerk Joby and force this into a flop on the floor. Roberto needs to weather the early striking flurry, then in rounds two and three work to get inside the striker, close distance and control this fight from tight quarters. This is the ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’ fight as Roberto looks more like a grocer than a grappler but I feel he’s positioned for profitable pup status tonight.

Roberto Sanchez +135 (half)

Alves -150 vs. Millender +140

Alves has had one fight since November of 2016, a victory over another aged, worn fighter, Patrick Cote’. He’ll have an experience edge, has offensive capability no matter where the fight goes and though compact (he’s quite short for the division) does have ferocious power and lethal leg kicks. Millender is a vicious stand up striking based fighter who needs distance to deliver destruction.  Millender steps up in class here but he’s five years the younger man, he’ll tower over Alves (who’s teetered between Lightweight and Welterweight) and he’ll sport substantial reach advantages. Youth, speed, explosiveness, size, and reach must be employed if Millender is going to overcome his savvy, cagey opponent. Millander can’t allow Alves to get inside and make this a groping slow dance on Prom night or he’ll be compromised. Millender needs to employ movement and control space to launch those destructive kicks and precision power punches. The key to the fight hinges on Alves ability to work his way inside the reach of the younger man, grip him, and make the fight ugly eventually forcing Millender to use energy trying to escape the clasp. ‘Styles make fights’ as the late great Angelo Dundee would chide. This fight is exactly that.  

Millender +140

Tybura -110 vs. Lewis +100

Lewis retired about a year ago after his last fight against Mark Hunt with back issues only to change his mind and return?  Red Flag.  The Beast is an explosive mauler when healthy but how do you wager on a warrior who fights in frenetic fashion, has a tender mid-section and has had a history of back issues? Lewis had to endure a twenty-pound weight loss to make the limit of 265 for Heavyweights tonight and while he’ll be the more massive man in the Octagon I question his capability to fight effectively beyond five minutes. Tybura (opened -130) can hold his own striking against this meaty mauler provided he controls distance but he’ll need to eventually find a way to get Lewis down to the ground most likely when Lewis charges inside to engage. Position will be the key when this fight hits the floor for one strength of Lewis is his formidable ground and pound so Tybura must take top control. I see Lewis taking a fifteen-minute beating here.

Tybura -110 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 221 Rockhold vs. Romero: Outback and Overweight - 2/8/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 221 from Perth Australia.  We’ll experience International fight flavor on this slate as there will be combatants from several different Countries each bringing diverse styles of fighting expertise into the cage.  The local Aussie fanbase will be belting ‘butchers’* starting at seven AM local time so we Americani’s may view the card in primetime which is quite accommodating of them! Several local Kiwi’s and Aussies many with opponents carefully chosen for them (in my estimation) will fortify fan frenzy for the proud Aussie’s in attendance will be fueled by fight time!  We’re in for an entertaining and hopefully profitable evening of MMA tonight.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

 Rockhold -165 vs. Romero +155

Yoel Romero initially missed weight (188.3) and was given two hours to make the 185lb. limit or be exempt from earning the Middleweight title if he gets his hand raised.  The fight is on, Romero’s final weight 187.7 is disappointing but the ramifications of this ordeal are quite different from what we experienced last week in Brazil with what I consider to be outright cheating.  Romero’s integrity is intact. Yes, he missed weight, and yes, it’s unprofessional to do so but let’s not forget that he DID take the fight on short notice. Further, the effect on him of the two hours to continue to try to get to 185lbs. is devastating both emotionally and physically and negatively affects his chance to win this fight. Meanwhile as Romero is forced to deal with this distraction and strife Rockhold was hydrating, eating and preparing to deliver the best performance of his career.

Each man brings their own expertise and unique skill(s) into this fight. Romero (forty-one this April) is a physical freak of nature for he is a muscularly sculpted, world-class wrestling-based fighter whose ferocity and athletic explosiveness are crippling early but often sap him of his energy once the fight gets into the second/third round. Romero prefers to pressure opponents and overwhelm them as he is unusually blessed with speed, dynamic movement and pure power. He’ll need to advance forward and force Rockhold backwards which will squelch the ex-champions punching offense and lethal legs kicks. Romero may not choose to utilize his wrestling in this fight because doing so may sap his limited strength/endurance. If this fight should fall to the floor, Rockhold will be comfortable and in advantageous position for he’s quite versed in wrestling having spent most of his career training with Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier at AKA.  In lieu of Romero’s issue with weight, expect a stand-up war here.  Romero must quickly work his way inside to eliminate Luke’s length, so he can hail hammering hooks from inside the pocket and try to chip at Luke’s chin for if Bisping can ruin Rockhold then this convulsive Cuban can light Luke up if at any time Rockhold gets careless inside. 

Rockhold enters the Octagon with advantages as he’s eight years the younger man (65% win percentage when there is a 5+ year age difference in fighters weighing over 170 lbs.) * he’ll have a four-inch reach advantage (60+% win rate) * as well he’ll be the longer, taller fighter in what figures now to be a stand-up fight. Rockhold must systematically work to wear the massive Cuban down for early on Romero will be dangerous (perhaps desperate). Rockhold will try to force Romero to utilize energy early by pressing him, attacking his legs to slow the attacker down then moving this fight into the Championship rounds where Romero’s age and historic lack of cardio will minimize his explosiveness, speed and power (compounded now by the weight cut issue).  Look for Rockhold (who prior to his first title defense as Champion went on the champagne and caviar circuit before getting iced by Michael Bisping) to have learned from that Bisping title defense embarrassment and show up on Saturday night focused and primed to produce his best effort against a capable mixed martial artist who remains most dangerous but finds himself clearly acquiescing to father time.

Rockhold opened +105 and quickly moved to -140 until the weigh-ins. Since the miss the line has swelled to -165.

Rockhold -115  

(Released 1-29-18 @Twitter)

Blaydes -155 vs. Hunt +145

Mark Hunt looks like a tubby little warrior from the islands, but he is a tremendously experienced and devastating banger that in his day had a granite chin and the power of a charging Rhino in the cage.  Today Hunt’s slowing as his tread is worn from numerous wars, but he still has the tremendous pride and power though his best is behind him now.  His last shot at glory is to hope the younger, taller, longer wrestling based Blaydes is overlooking him for some reason (I feel there is little chance of this) or fights a foolish fight which would involve trying to stand with Hunt whose single way to victory is via the KO.  Hunt has solid take down defense so Blaydes will be forced early to fight his way into the clinch to press the stout striker against the cage and eventually to the floor if he is to gain advantage in this fight.  After a round of Blaydes making Hunt effort for any strike he may land the forty-four-year-old’s mettle and effectiveness will wane not because he is weak of mind but because he is old as hell. The key for Blaydes is to force Hunt to the floor where dominant wrestling position will allow Blaydes to dictate the tone of the fight.  Blaydes must use fight intelligence and not give into Hunt’s need to make this a furious fight in a phone booth for if Blaydes can weather the early storm and take this to the second round, Hunt’s age, his lack of speed and singular way to win (the KO) will make the proud warrior a ‘mark’. 

Blaydes -155

(released 2-8-18)

Jingliang -155 vs. Matthews +145

Jingliang is off an impressive victory in mainland China just 90 days ago (Jingliang and camp acted as ambassadors for the UFC in organizing and taking leadership in UFC FN 122 in Shanghai where he beat Zac Ottow in a physical three-minute war). His fighting style revolves around opponents accommodating him by standing with him and engaging in striking battles on the feet for Jingliang’s forte is the stand-up war and he’s been in plenty of them.  He has power, stamina and a granite grill but these physical battles and the wear they impart on a fighter not to mention coming off a hugely emotional win just a few months ago put Jingliang in dubious position in my judgement.

Jingliang must control distance as he does not want this fight on the floor for his striking advantage is muted there.  Matthews has been a victim of youth and inexperience so far in his career but he’s only twenty-three years old and in his last outing he displayed the glimmer of improvement that we needed to see from a fighter I believe is just beginning to find himself. Matthews will be able to hold his own against the Chinese warrior long enough to work this fight to the floor. Let’s not forget that in his initial fight at Welterweight Matthews looks strong in taking Bojan Velickovic to the laundry and we view Velickovic as quite similar in many ways to Jingliang, so I feel Matthews is well prepared to display his best effort in this fight in front of his Countrymen. 

Matthews +150

(released 2-8-18)

Quinones -160 vs. Ishihara +140

Quinones wants to clinch, maul, grope and grind while Ishihara wants to use speed, movement, precision striking and distance control.  I like Ishihara as a mangy mutt here.

Ishihara +140 (half)

Note: Fighter that almost made the cut is Kim -125….monitoring

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

* ‘Butchers’ is Aussie slang for ice-cold brews

* This stat provided by @Megalockinsidrs

* Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn

 

UFC 221 Early releases: 2-8-18 9:40AM EST

Rockhold -115 

(released Jan. 29th @Twitter)

Matthews +150

Blaydes -155 

Full write ups avaialble on Point Spread Weekly @VSiNlive and Saturday on the GambLou.com blog

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN125 Machida vs. Anders: Bodylock in Belem - 1/30/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 125 from Belem, Brazil.  The northern Brazilian fans are deserving of a worthy fight card after never having the opportunity to host one prior and we’re excited to view the voracious fans as they cheer their local fighters tonight. 

The excitement for Belem however is tarnished to a degree because of the blatant disregard to the rules of the UFC by two Brazilian fighters, Munhoz (missed by 5lb. and opponent Dodson opted not to fight at a catchweight which would have been a sizeable disadvantage for him) and Prazeres (6 lb. over with no intention of making 155 where he’s missed weight 2-3 times prior).  

Now I preach…

The current 20% loss of pay as penalty for missing weight is not enough deterrent to overcome a fighter that decides to sacrifice their fee in exchange for tremendous advantage over an opponent in a most dangerous game.  I have said many times that the deterrent needs to be strengthened to a 25% loss of all earned fees as well the fight (whether it goes on or not) should be awarded as a LOSS to the penalized fighter. 

Put teeth in the damn rule UFC and second, why would you not pay John Dodson his full purse?  He acted as a true professional on every count and now because he chooses not to take the fight at disadvantage he is penalized by only receiving ‘a portion’ of his purse?

That looks real bush UFC. Sorry, finished now.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Figueiredo -155 vs Morales +145

This is an early bout but one in which I believe some tone may be set.  Figueiredo at 30 is not young but he is an improving fighter off a fine win recently against a worthy wrestler in Jared Brooks.  Enter Morales a twenty-three-year-old fighter out of Alpha Male so we know he has a wrestling base, but this kid been hanging around this gym since he was in diapers almost.  Morales is also a talented improving fighter with an outstanding opportunity here.  We’re going to side with Morales because when this gets dirty, grimy and grinding it is the wrestling-based fighter that will earn advantage because that’s what wrestlers do.

Morales +145 (half)

Patrick -230 vs. Hadzovic +210

I believe this is a completely misguided line and line move.  Patrick looks the part but honestly, I am not impressed with his skill set.  He’ll need to get the awkward brawler to the mat for a maul ideally, but I believe the Bosnian is in Belem to brawl not crawl.  Hadzovic is today’s hold your nose release, but he opened +165 and at +210 is worthy of a look.  This ‘ship-in’ may just show up.

Hadzovic +210 (half)

Santos -265 vs. Smith +245

Smith opened +110.  He’s four inches taller, four years younger (but surely has same wear on his for he’s been fighting for years) and holds reach advantage with legs and arms in what is likely to be a stand-up war.  Smith’s a tall drink of water with a bit of a fragile beak which is why most believe the physical freak that is Santos is going to explode and knock Smith’s nose in the Nile which is quite possible.  That said this is a big opportunity for Smith who if he can get this fight to the second round will swing advantage to his corner as he comes complete with capable cardio and dynamic durability.  It is Santos who after the furious first few can get all ‘swole’ up after producing plenty of profuse power punches.  Today’s flyer….

Smith +245 (half)

Prazeres -120 vs. Green +110

This dirty cheat Prazeres make no effort to make weight in any ethical or professional fashion and we’ve seen some of this (from primarily Brazilian fighters) recently and I absolutely hate it. Prazeres is a strong stubby fire hydrant but he is thirty-six and while he’s won his last several fights, the level of competition has not been what he’s about to see tonight.  Green’s a D1 wrestler and the first thing taught me by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu coaches was that world class wrestlers are kryptonite to BJJ fighters.  Des Green will be the first D1 wrestler this pimp Prazeres has ever faced which has Green backers salivating.  Green’s six plus years younger, well-rounded in a MMA sense and can fight if frantic fashion forever.  Green’s plan is going to be to break this bum by weathering everything the old man can dish early then later into this fight grind this cheating chump out.  I am passionate about ethical honorable fighters doing their job and tonight Des Green is going to do his.

Green +130

(released earlier this week)

Green at any dog price is a worthy wager

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

1-30-18 10am EST

Des Green +130

Full write ups and releases available here Saturday AM


UFC Fox27 Brunson vs. Souza: Submissions form Charlotte - 1/27/2018

UFC 220 displayed that well-rounded, experienced Mixed Martial Artists own advantage over talented, raw fighters developing mixed martial arts skills. Stipe Miocic holds the category of polished Mixed Martial Artist while last Saturday’s opponent Francis Ngannou left the Octagon understanding that a complete and developed fight arsenal is required to realize success in the UFC.  Stipe won his third title defense (a record in the UFC) by utilizing kick-boxing, boxing, wrestling and grappling weaponry against the one-dimensional plodding power puncher.

Determining which mixed martial artists provide gaming value is critical as some UFC cards are rife with live dogs and value while others offer few capable canines and value opportunities. This week’s fight card from Charlotte features few mainstream MMA match-ups, so the (as always) is to focus on uncovering value where one fighter holds ‘advantage’ over the opponent. 

Advantage in the UFC as with all sports CAN be quantified through metrics. Weekly, I’ll share statistics, facts and figures that contribute to understanding which fighters possess quantifiable fight advantage over their opponent.  While many advantages like height, reach and size can be simple to grasp others are more intangible but just as important when handicapping a UFC fight.

Age ‘advantage’

Fighters who are at least five years younger than their opponent win 62% of the time since the inception of the UFC. When we segment weight divisions into two groups with 170 pounds being the breakoff the data shows that the five-year difference means even more to larger fighters as the win rate increases to 64.5%*. Age is an important factor in determining potential advantage in the fight game.

UFC Fox 27

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Souza -165 vs. Brunson +145

This fight is a rematch of a 2012 Strikeforce fight. Souza was a 32-year-old mixed martial artist in his prime and feared within MMA because of his efficient disposal of everyone he faced.  He dominated a young raw one-dimensional 28-year-old Brunson (almost a full five-year age difference) despite his wrestling acumen.  That night Souza showed Brunson that he was years away from being able to compete with a fighter of Souza’s ability. Souza KO’d Brunson in the first round of that fight as Brunson rushed forward to engage the Brazilian Black Belt with a protruding chin and wide looping punches. Souza one shot put Brunson to sleep. This fight result was a lesson learned for the developing young Brunson and another finish for Souza.

Today Souza is almost 38 and 2-2 in his last 4 fights spanning the last two plus years and he’s been off almost a full year since his last loss to Whittaker. Souza’s age and numerous fight rounds are affecting his skillset.  Brunson meanwhile has been able to use the last five years to mature, evolve, develop skills and (hopefully) enhance his fight IQ. Souza opened -150 to Brunson +110.  Souza’s age, the wear his body has taken, his 5” inch reach DIS-advantage (fighters that own a minimum 2-inch reach advantage in striking affairs hold a 64% rate of success over fighters giving up said reach**) and the fact that he has looked a bit plodding and deliberate lately signify the proud warrior’s skills are waning.  This is a tough spot for Souza to as he tries to maintain his place in the division against a fighter who has improved substantially since 2012.  Brunson’s length, speed, wrestling skill and take down defense make him a much more competitive fighter this weekend than he was in their first fight in 2012 (then Souza -500 and Brunson +350). Brunson must utilize his skills to keep Souza at distance and control the tempo of the fight with precision striking, legwork and movement. A striking battle may be in Brunson’s plan for Saturday night. If this fight does hit the floor the wrestler (Brunson) needs to immediately gain top control for Souza’s specialty is obtaining top position on the mat and there is no way Brunson wants to vie with Jacare’ at this strength.  This is a dog or pass fight.

Brunson +135 (released earlier this week @Twitter)

Dober -160 vs. Camacho +150

These boys are bangers.  Each fight at 155 but decided to toss the lightweight division out the door and fight at a more comfortable Welterweight 170 tonight.  Camacho has had some Welterweight experience and looked game in a loss against a much larger Jingliang.  Tonight, he faces a smaller man but one that has some ground capability.  Will the local Carolinian, Dober look to put on a show and stand with the bigger, longer Camacho or force this to the floor where he may have advantage over the more one-dimensional Camacho? I believe were in for a stand-up war here as these two look to try to clobber each other in Carolina.

Camacho +150 (released earlier this week @Twitter)

Pichel -105 vs. Silva -105

Pichel is a solid striker but time away overcoming injury, the fact he is six plus years older  than Silva (more in fight years I assure you) scares me here.  Silva may accommodate Pichel for he’s also a stand-up based striker and this battle leads me to believe it’s going to be a brawl.  This fight opened Silva -150.  We’ll watch this line and hope for more value on Silva for we feel he is the more explosive and athletic fighter.  Patience here….Check Twitter for any release and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 220 Miocic vs. Ngannou: Boston 'Gi' Party - 1/20/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most anticipated fight card.  Since time began there has been fighting and since fighting began bystanders have begged for big boys to battle.  Tonight’s main event was covered in comprehensive fashion in our article for VSiN (Vegas Stats and Information Network, @VSiNlive on Twitter) earlier this week.  We’ll be offering MMA angles and Intel in a weekly column with VSiN on their weekly publication called “Point Spread Weekly” my column is entitled, “Insight the Octagon”.  I’ll post the column from VSiN here today with the disclosure that “Point Spread Weekly” is a subscription based newsletter.  That sai,d the meager fee associated with this publication is a pittance based on the comprehensive gaming intel provided in each edition.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Here's my “Insight the Octagon” piece (main event) which appeared on Point Spread weekly this past Wednesday 1-17-18.

Welcome to Insight the Octagon.  The goal of these columns will be to breakdown upcoming UFC fights while imparting some of the reasoning behind the releases made.  I approach handicapping as running a business and over the four plus decades ‘investing’ in sporting events I have come to adhere to an ‘underdog’ philosophy whether money line wagering or if utilizing point spreads.  The Money line is used to wager on UFC fights.  Seeking out and embracing the ‘mangy mutt’ (a term used for underdog) is a staple to the business I call Profitable Sports Gaming. 

I released 118 (half-unit or one unit only) UFC positions over the course 2017 (444 total fights). 

2017 results:  54-64 (45.76%), +15.78 total units, ROI 14.18% (average price per release +148)

My philosophy for profitability in betting the UFC involves employing three fundamentals: comprehensive due diligence; supreme selectivity and regular (public) money management. 

John Crouch, Owner of the MMALab in Glendale, AZ. and former Gracie Academy teaching instructor in an article titled, Technique Talk* says it well when asked what were MMA fighter’s biggest improvements during 2017, “Martial arts and fighting, and pretty much life, comes down to good fundamentals. That's my opinion. I learned good fundamentals where I came from and all great coaches are good fundamentalists*. 

Professional gamblers strive to uncover value in each investment and regard acquiring price advantage over the closing line as critically important.  I work tirelessly to obtain that advantage and will look forward to sharing my insights with Point spread weekly readers.  Investing in underdogs and striving to reach the 50%-win rate is the goal each year so let’s see how 2018 unfolds. 

Miocic +165 vs. Ngannou -190

Stipe Miocic is going to defend his Heavyweight title and shows up to Boston Saturday as the underdog.  His challenger, Francis Ngannou is a monstrously muscled destroyer who employs profuse punching power, stupendous strength and complete confidence in his ability to unplug anyone he pops on the point.  Ngannou has six fights in his just over two years since he joined the UFC and has finished each opponent.  He seems destined to be a star in the UFC and his rapid rise to the height of the division can be explained by his impressive physique, his sensational knockout power and the general lack of talent in the HW division.   But with all that said, we do have reservation about this spot for an inexperienced and more importantly untested Francis Ngannou who’s not been taken into the third round of a UFC fight.  Other than a very young Curtis Blaydes, Ngannou has been set up with perfectly picked pugilists who have acquiesced by engaging with him on the feet without any threat of the take down or even any attempt to stick and move to make the monster utilize energy to try to take him deep into a fight and test his will.  Ngannou at this point in his development is quite one dimensional though that dimension has been effective based on his athleticism, raw power and his opponent’s willingness to stand there with him.  He’s winning by utilizing pure power only and has not been forced to the floor to fight nor has he been chipped yet on the chin.  While explosive early Ngannou’s not particularly quick and he throws as Angelo Dundee would say, ‘Sunday shots’ (because you can see the punches coming from last Sunday).  In my judgement, Ngannou is susceptible to an experienced fighter who can employ defensive tactics, constant movement and precision striking with some wrestling folded in to sap the savage of his strength. The plan must be to take Ngannou deep into a fight to test his conditioning and especially his chin for the man has yet to be busted on the beak.  We feel Miocic or perhaps even a healthy Cain Velasquez are the only Heavyweights capable of presenting a plan that can pose problems for the Predator.

Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic is an underdog in the third defense of his title.  The Champ is a firefighter from Cleveland whose fight arsenal is complete with athleticism, precision punching, power, effective movement and conditioning.  He has the strength and size to stand up to Ngannou, he’s well more experienced than the challenger and has been in the Octagon with the most powerful punchers in the game.  Miocic possesses a complete fight arsenal and must execute a plan to make the monster chase him, he must pump a steady, straight, stinging jab in Ngannou’s face while utilizing movement which hopefully results in Ngannou having to utilize energy to chase, engage and battle.  Miocic must use movement and precision punches to force the power puncher into becoming anxious to engage and therefore render the beast somewhat vulnerable as he forges his way toward Miocic to throw down.  It’s much easier to take an opponent down if said opponent is incoming as it contributes to leverage.  If Miocic can execute then perhaps the challenger gets a bit careless on his way into engagement which may allow Miocic to manage the monster to the mat.  Again, constant movement, accumulated precision punching and eventual take downs are one effective way to battle this beast.  Miocic is well trained and has the support of a champion.  Miocic opened +130 and is now +165.  As in many sporting events the wave of betting action usually shows on the day of the event. 

I like the direction this line is moving and will jump if there is even a penny of price regression but until then I advise patience for the ‘recency theory’ is never more applicable than in the fight game and Ngannou’s demolition of Overeem will have the public picking the Predator.

Miocic +165 or better                    Fight starts Round 2 -105 (added Saturday 1-20-18)

One note: It’s important to understand that I write these on Mondays each week and UFC events occur mostly on the following Saturday.  Therefore, at times we may ask readers to understand that prices and circumstances may change during the week.  Updated fight information and UFC Insight is available to all at the GambLou.com webpage.  We post all fight releases on the morning of the fights and look forward to sharing our Mixed Martial Arts passion with you here at Point Spread Weekly.

*Article written by Luke Thomas MMA Fighting.com entitled: “Technique Talk: Experts discuss biggest areas of evolution in MMA in 2017”

UFC 220 other releases

Almeida -105 vs. Font -105

Font’s a fighter who’ll come right out and get banging.  He’s got power good range and a solid chin. I believe this fight is going to be a more savage stand-up tussle than chess match which favors Font only for the first four minutes or so.  Almeida who is a consummate slow starter is the younger, more athletic man who’s still improving at the age of 26 while Font (30) is a middle of the division talented fighter trying to step up.  The Brazilian opened -175 and has been in with the top of the Division only losing to Garbrandt and Riviera, two World Class Mixed martial artists.  Almeida and Font will trade but we feel it will Be Almeida who survives this striking affair.

Almeida -105

Davis -135 vs. Bochniak +125

Davis the bigger, longer, younger striker in the cage tonight against a local fighter in Bochniak that has desperation as his motivator for his results have been poor against dubious competition to this point in his UFC run.  This release is a fade of Bochniak who must try to get this fight to the floor to have any chance to win for in the judgement of we here at GambLou.com world HQ Bochniak will feed himself to Davis as Bochniak must find his way inside the Davis reach to make this his fight.  Meanwhile, the high paced, ill-intentioned Davis is going to try to bop Bochniak on the beak on his way in.  Pace, power and pressure are keys to Davis getting his hand raised here.   

Davis -135 (half)

Razak Alhassan -180 vs. Homasi +170

The first fight these two engaged in was stopped by mistake just this past December (Razak Alhassan was awarded a TKO late in round 1 on an unusual looking slip that was mistaken by the Ref as a shut off shot).  In that fight R-A threw everything he had at Homasi who at times was stunned yet forged his way forward into the fracas with the hope of trying to grind the gargantuan swinging Ghanan down and gain control of the fight.  This was beginning to occur when in an exchange the fight was suddenly stopped (no disagreement with stoppage as the way Homasi slipped is a textbook look for Ref to step in).  Razak Hassan’s reaction was that of almost disbelieve coupled with relief and joy. Tonight, this rematch comes down to fight IQ in my estimation for if Razak Hassan goes out as poorly paced as he did in December then he best take Homasi out early. Homasi showed great toughness, grit and determination in December and his camp knows the way to earn this win is to grind the Ghanan down over time then get on top to reign supreme.  Homasi has been hit on the head and put out in his past and Razak Hassan tried to light him up last out. He has power, but does he have the pace and a plan?

Homasi +175 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Announcment - 1/16/2018

Welcome to Money Morning gaming Enthusiasts.

 We have exciting news as we have been enlisted by the outstanding professionals at VSiN to contribute fight fodder for the UFC on their weekly publication “Point Spread Weekly” commencing this week.  This is a role we have strived to achieve for some time.  This announcement coincides with another announcement that we will immediately return to a role of encourager, advisor and mentor to any Enthusiasts looking to hone their gaming skills.  Therefore we will no longer be charging fees for our work in the UFC. 

We found it less than satisfying charging for our work these last couple of years.  The money earned was nice but we felt we lost some integrity in the charging of releases honestly.  We will move ahead into 2018 submitting all our material free of charge knowing that the dedication we have to profit from the ‘Makers is unchanged and we’ll display to readers of GambLou.com  and VSiN’s periodical that our ways and means in the pursuit of Profitable Sports Gaming are open for any to review and make comment upon.

UFC

In the UFC we pulled a hammy and used two chalks in one parlay and we managed to lose them both.  This is why we rarely use chalk and hardly ever play parlays (almost never, not never ever).   We start the 2018 campaign 0-1 yet we feel confident that our approach to Profitable Sports Gaming will allow us to overcome that 1 unit loss quite efficiently. 

More coming in 2018 by way of Profitable Sports Gaming and by all means if you want an early look at UFC 220 get to VSiN and obtain the “Point Spread Weekly” publication to view our early angles for UFC 220.  The title of our column will be “Insight the Octagon”

NFL

NFL Divisional weekend 2-2

In the NFL we realized a 2-2 week with an Open Teaser in the balance (Vikings +2 with an open end).  We’ll update that result after this weekend’s action.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 124 Choi vs. Stevens: Submissions in Soulard - 1/14/2018

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC fight night 124 the first UFC card of 2018. As always we’ll remain focused on profitability as opposed to action for first and foremost we conduct ourselves with our singular point of focus being profitability.  This is business.  This fight card from St. Louis has some interesting fights but few mangy mutts we really feel comfortable with.  In fact we feel the two best value positions lie in a couple of moderately priced favorites.  With that in mind we’ll begin the year with one release.  Remember Enthusiasts, it’s about the bottom line not ‘action’. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in our “Money Morning’ report.  Updated results for all sporting events we work are available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Johnson -180 vs. Elkins +170

This is a fight we released earlier this week (Johnson -150) but since midweek the price has escalated. Elkins is a tough, gritty wrestling based grinder who will try to crowd and smother Johnson to try to make this an ugly clasping grappling grind designed to eventually sap Johnson of his speed and quickness.  Johnson wants this on the feet where he may utilize his athleticism, precision punching, speed and skill to piece the plodder to a pulp.  This fight’s about MJ keeping control of distance where he’ll own advantage.  If Elkins can work Johnson into the body lock, force him to the fence and work to wear Johnson down past the first seven minutes of this fight then he could find a way to get his hand raised.  We feel Johnson is clearly the deserving favorite and that tonight father time begins to show his effects on Elkins.

Johnson -180

Choi -165 vs. Stevens +150

This line has held steady most of the week.  Choi is the younger, faster, more explosive fighter but in past fights has shown he lacks defensive acumen and once he gets punched on the point he throws the plan aside and the brawling begins.  When this happened in his last fight against Cub Swanson he was able to survive to a decision loss because Cub is shy on pure power but if he allows Lil Heathen to hammer him like he did Cub then the super boy will stumble.  Stevens will give away advantages in speed and precision striking but he sports tremendous drive, grit, cardio and he possesses power striking with both hands and kicks.  If Choi can keep his head, control distance (much like Michael Johnson must) utilize IQ to out strike Stevens utilizing speed and skill then this fight is his for we believe the time away has allowed the twenty six year old to evolve and improve as opposed to a cat in Stevens who has displayed some inconsistency in past performances.  If Choi makes one mistake and reverts to the toe to toe warfare that has gotten him this far then we feel Lil Heathen has every chance.  What tilts the decision for us is the age difference here as 62% of the time the fighter who is at least five years younger than their opponent gets their hand raised.

Choi -165

Rarely do we find ourselves on the chalk side but current pricing on Johnson does not allow today’s readers to catch -150. That being the case the only release for this fight card will be a parlay.

Choi -165/Johnson -180:   +155

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Money Morning: NFL & UFC Profitability 2017 - 1/8/2018

Welcome to 2018 gaming Enthusiasts.  Today we’ll provide our final 2018 numbers for the NFL and then UFC. 

Regular accounting is required inside of any profitable business entity and we here at GambLou.com World HQ are running a business here as opposed to tapping tilts on twitter then yapping when/if we win and going dark when losses amass.  Profitable Sports Gaming is a mindset, a commitment to excellence and a lifelong journey for in this racket (as the National Treasure Mr. Jimmy Vaccaro calls it) if one applies themselves appropriately the learning never stops.

-Let’s Account-

NFL 2017

Wildcard Weekend produced profit as we realized a 2-1 result.  The Titans and Panthers did their jobs while our teaser (Rams to Saints) fell short on the Ram side. Overall results for the NFL to date:

43-34   55.85%   9.0 units earned   11.08% ROI

We’re experiencing one of the most arduous NFL seasons in some time but there remain a few short weeks and we are hitting a profitable pace as we near the finish of the campaign.  We pay for hooks and scour for value so realize that not each release we provide is -110 as we play moneyline wagers and avoid the key number of 3 with vigor!

2017 UFC 

At the start of the year we proclaimed that in 2017 our focus was to greatly reduce the number of wagers we released to become more accurate and therefore profitable.  Here are the line results for 2016 and 2017.

2016:  74-109    40.44%     7.56 units earned      4.86% ROI

2017:  54-64      45.76%    15.78 units earned    14.18% ROI

Clearly reducing selections resulted in higher win percentages in ’17 as we went from 183 releases in 2016 to 118 in 2017 (a reduction of 65 releases or roughly a third!) clearly reducing our selections that aggressively resulted in a better than 5% increase in win rate which greatly enhances profitability when one is hound hunting!

Our average price on winners comes out similarly as last year at +147 so our prices were unaffected by the reduction in releases.  Lastly Profitability, (what we do this for) was greatly enhanced by the reduction tactic as we netted better than double the dollars we earned in 2016 and added 9.5% to our ROI. 

On to 2018 where we will continue to provide dynamic dog delivery in the UFC while producing profitability over the course of the year.  We’ve always been in this for the long term (it’s business).

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 219 Cyborg vs. Holm: Sin City Submissions - 12/30/2017

 

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the UFC’s last fight card of 2017.  We’ll regard ‘17 the year of the Chalk for Favorites into this last card of the year stand 288-123-23 (66%).  Those that read us often understand that we scorn the market for betting value though we’re known to prefer mangy unwanted underdogs.  Let’s look at a couple of value ridden canines we feel are poised to perform at their best tonight.  We work diligently to uncover live fighters who are prepared to offer their top effort coupled with the fact that they offer betting value.  Here’s one of the releases we have posted on today's UFC slate.  Best of Luck and Happy New Year to all.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Cyborg -345 vs. Holm +315

Title fight and Holly Holm a dynamic counter striking boxing based combatant shows up like a true professional to take on a fighter unequaled in her arena and only eclipsed in MMA dominance by Demetrius Johnson.  Cyborg is mighty, ferocious, well rounded and unequaled in today’s woman’s MMA.  Cyborg much like Nurmagomedov will want to make this fight from inside a closet (typical slang is ‘inside a phone booth’ but today’s readers hardly know what that is LOL). Anyway, Cyborg has the pure power, the striking precision and the ground capability to earn the favorite’s role here and she can dominate via any of those forms.  Holly will need to use her conditioning and legs to control distance and kick, pick and peck the relentless pursuer from every angle as Cyborg strives to get inside to work.  Holly will need Cyborg to eventually become frustrated and use poor judgement in trying to get inside of Holm’s distance control to punish the power puncher.  We feel Holm will show well in this spot and is made to dish Cyborg some situation.  That said we do feel Cyborg finds a way.  Our angle in this fight comes again from the Props for we do feel this fight gets to the Championship rounds….

Cyborg/Holm starts Rd. 4 +100

Calvillo -230 vs. Esparza +210

This is our PhD. In MMA fight.  Calvillo, at thirty is a talented, raw up and comer from the Alpha Male gym.  She has decent wrestling, BJJ but her big advantage over the shorter Esparza is standing and she’ll want the fight to remain on the feet.  Esparza, a dynamic wrestling based ex-Champion has had a long road to return to the top of this division for her stand -up lacked and she was a bit too one dimensional earlier in her career.  In this fight Calvillo will look to hold advantage by making this a striking affair while Carla will want to get inside, grab ahold of the longer fighter and drag her down to the dirt to sap her strength, take top control and try to dominate the fight by making it a grind on the ground.  We feel Esparza’s wrestling and experience provide her advantage. This will be a close split decision type fight, so we look to the Props for our angle in this fight

Esparza pts. Handicap +3.5 +100

Condit -155 vs. Magny +145

Condit’s been in the retirement game for over a year now and feels the need to return.  He believes he’s improved his BJJ skills since he was shish Ka-bob’ed a year a go by Maia and feels the fire is back and he’s ready to display said new skills.  Condit was a world class fighting competitor and had a most impressive run but his lack of ground skills namely poor take down defense presented issues for him when he fought skilled wrestlers/BJJ fighters.  He’s a stand-up fighter with lethal striking and huge heart.  We believe however that Condit has pondered and executed retirement for a reason and coming out to face a most dangerous wrestling based opponent in Neil Magny seems unwise.  Magny will have dynamic size and reach advantages though he’ll need to utilize those on the feet only long enough to be able to drag Carlos into the clinch or down to the canvass for a crawl n brawl.  Where this fight takes place is a key factor in who’s arm gets raised tonight.  Magny has the skills and ability to get this fight down and make it ugly where he can dominate an old tired saddle.

Magny +145

Nicolau -220 vs. Smolka +200

Nicolau is the improving fighter off a layoff due to ‘penalty’.  He’s got the pure stand up advantage and he’ll dominate if this stays on the feet.  Smolka is a fighter on the learn and though his last three results have been disappointing he’s seemingly addressed issues, is aware of his dubious position in the organization and sports substantial physical advantages in this fight.  Smolka, who does have a wrestling advantage on the ground in this match-up must work to eventually smother the striker, force this into a physical flop on the floor and take his control.  He opened +115 and is now a betting value at current pricing.

Smolka +200 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming