Sambo on Sunday: UFC FN61 Silva vs. Mir

February 22, 2015 6:37 pm / Leave a Comment /

Bigfoot vs. MirWelcome Enthusiasts to UFC Sunday night fights.  There is value in tonight’s card.  In the last UFC slate we stood relatively alone choosing to side with the more experienced Benson Henderson as our main event position against the bigger, larger and greener Brandon Thatch.  That position was example ‘A’ in why we relish the opportunity to buck the many and stand out with the few!  That Bendo position capped a profitable evening for us as we realized a final result of 3-2 +205.00. We strive to uncover unwanted mangy underdogs in all the sporting events we work for we learned long ago that except on rare occasions… chasing chalk can be hazardous to one’s health. 

In wagering on the UFC it’s our position that fading aggressive line movement (in a Selective manner) coupled with a deep knowledge of each fighter’s capability, prowess and ‘motivation’ provide us the ability to bank bottom line for we are not in this for fun or amusement…..we work the UFC for profit.

UFC 2015: 14-13 +395.00

(All GambLou.com positions are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated.  We do this for transparency, accountability and to easily display bottom line profitability as results for all GambLou.com positions are disclosed each Monday AM).

-Let’s Fight-

Trator -210 vs. de la Torre +190

We wonder what Mike de la Torre did to UFC matchmakers to have received the kind of fights he has received since arriving in the UFC.  While de la Torre is a well-rounded grinder from one of the top teams in America this draw against Tiago Trator is not a good one for any featherweight in the division.  Trator will enter the Octagon the much larger more capable man tonight and while it will not be an easy win for Trator make no mistake about the fact that his arm will be raised at the end of this fight.

Strickland -200 vs. Ponzinibbio +180

We are keenly aware of the major advantage Brazilian fighters own when they fight in their native country.  That said Ponzinibbio simply is too limited to be able to overtake the younger, longer, taller American in this spot.  We mentioned this fight (and the above fight) on SXMCanadaTalks radio last week with Gabriel Morency.  Then the lines on both Trator (-180) and Strickland (-180) offered some 30 cents of extra gaming value.  We grabbed both some time ago (separate wagers) and like them both yet today.  Let’s parlay with these two and turn a couple chalk plays into a puppy price.

Trator/Strickland +124 (parlay based on current pricing)

Khabilov -575 vs. Martins +445

Rustam Khabilov has been off almost a year since he took Ben Henderson deep into a 5 round bout.  As Benson learned Khabilov is a capable fighter and strong as Russian vodka.  Clearly, those that ignored Bendo last week (as washed up and desperate) give the Russian fighter mucho credit for that accomplishment as they feast on him like they already know the final result of this matchup.  Khabilov opened a fair -210 in this fight for he does face a guy in Martins that will be much the larger man tonight.  Martins owns real advantage as a Brazilian fighting in front of his Countrymen (Fightnomics page 291) which is something motivating us in this bout (along with the tremendous wagering value).  So rather than Martins +160 (which was in our opinion a fair opening price) we’ll embrace Martins at a grotesque +445 understanding that we will get his best effort for this fight along with the high percentages that go with a Brazilian fighting in front of his Countrymen.  

Martins +445 (half)

Barboza -180 vs. Johnson +160

In our opinion this may be one of the better fights thus far in 2015.  Barboza will have the tremendous advantage of reach and fighting in front of his country going for him.  Barboza will want to stand and strike with Johnson, gain a space advantage and keep Johnson at bay with his power striking.  Johnson in our view will offer Edson much more fight than in his recent fights (reference to the mugging, clowning, and ineffective imposter for a fighter that is one Bobby Green).  Barboza will need to pit his power and effective kicking against Johnson a fighter that will sport a sizeable speed advantage to go along with his superior wrestling.  This match screams fight of the night and while we lean Johnson our approach in this fight (as it always is with underdog positions) is to wait and watch.  If we can derive another dime or two from the dog then we will make a position but at current pricing we’ll simply watch what we believe will be the most competitive fight on the card. Watch us on Twitter @GambLou for any notification.  This fight did see Johnson +200 at one point but Uncle Louie must have been sleeping and missed the price.  Can the parlay players help us get +200 to return?

Silva -230 vs. Mir +200

Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva is used to being a menacing heavyweight who is usually the larger more powerful man in the Octagon.  However, with relatively new UFC steroid testing in place the Cro-Magnon throwback will step into the Octagon tonight with the hometown edge but without ‘Mother’s little helper* (the juice he is and has been so used to relying on).  Tonight Silva will be only the slightly larger man but not the towering menace he is so used to being for Frank is almost as tall and heavy as ‘Bigfoot’.  We don’t view Silva as an overly intelligent fighter and now without his ‘edge’ we feel that his mental frame could be fragile to say it simply.  Silva’s goal will be to touch Frank on his porcelain chin with one of his third row haymakers and send him to the Bellator circuit….many feel this is quite possible.

Frank Mir on the other hand has faced large laboring fighters before with success.  Mir will need to take this fight to the canvas, fight the giant in a phone booth and keep this one chest to chest which both muzzles the giant’s striking power and keeps Silva in the clasp with the more qualified submission man.  Mir will need to use his speed and agility in order to get into clinch with the Giant.  Frank fully understands that for this one to go his way he must grope and grovel with Silva….take him deep and force him to tire so that he can be submitted or at least ridden on the canvas with control.  While Silva will sport some size and power, Frank’s advantages are his intelligence, speed and quickness.  Angelo Dundee taught us many years ago that ‘Styles make fights’ and in this one we have exactly that…..two vastly different styles.

Mir +200          

Over 1.5 rounds -115

(Aggressive, announced last week on SXMCanadaTalks)

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: , , ,

UFC FN 60: Henderson vs. Thatch

February 14, 2015 10:12 pm / Leave a Comment /

Bendo vs. ThatchGood Day Enthusiasts.  Today’s fight card from Bloomfield, Co. offers interesting fight value.  As usual we’ve observed some unreasonable line movement caused by what we believe are ‘chalk chasing chumps’ trying to three team parlay their way into easy money.  Those that read us here know that we rarely play parlays.  Our approach differs….we are committed to picking pups as opposed to chasing chalk parlays and based on the last three years results we can say that what we do works for us.  We work to display how to bank bottom line over the long haul by researching fighters that arrive to fight night ready to give their best and who may have distinct ‘Fightmetric’ advantages over their opponent that offer us wagering value.  Our pursuit of the unwanted mangy mutt that offers enhanced gaming value is the goal.   

Our adversary (by definition only) Nick Kalikas (@FightOdds) who sets the lines for one of the major off shore books has been getting keener and sharper in the setting of lines as the years have gone by.  We respect Nick’s work and ALWAYS compare our opening lines to his.  We are of the belief that his lines are pretty dad gummed accurate just based on the fact that we have mucho confidence in how we handicap fights and it is getting tougher to beat Nick off of the opening line.  We also consult and discuss these UFC fights via the DM tool on twitter with guys that we have huge amounts of respect for.  Guys like Joey Oddessa (@MMAOdds) is simply put one of the sharpest fight guys we’ve been in contact with.  Our amigo Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) is another cat who lays it down and has been gracious enough to allow us on his radio shows.  Writers and fight Enthusiasts @MMAAdamMartin, @LanceFishel5, @BrianHemminger, @Vegas_ Matty, @JayPrimetown and @Jason_Floyd are all professionals (among many others please know we cannot name all of the men and women we trust for fight knowledge in today’s blog) who we read at every opportunity.  We comprehensively research these fights using the many resources available but to overlook mentioning the outstanding work the folks at @BloodyElbow produce would be a major oversight.  

Simply put we ‘plan our work and we work our plan’.  Let’s see what our plan brings us today!

UFC 2015: 11-11 +$190.00

(GambLou.com positions are understood to be for a standard any hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated.  We do this for transparency, accountability and to most simply display bottom line results.  All results for all sporting endeavors are posted each Monday AM).

-Let’s Fight-

Skelly -230 vs. Alers +190

This is the ‘Style’s make fights’* bout for us on the card as we view Skelly as a guy that will want to take Alers down and rub him on the mat while Alers will want to keep this one on the feet and do damage with his superior striking game.  We find value in the striker (with most goats it can pay to wait and see if we can get another dime of value on this fight as we near the opening bell) as well we don’t trust Chas’ cardio and feel Alers is aware that Skelly will want to play this one on the floor.

Alers +190 (or better)

Lima -135 vs. Escudero +115

Escudero opened -130.  We believe he should be the favorite in this fight based on experience and fighting guile.  De Lima at 23 is a capable and up and coming fighter but he faces a fighter that is much better on the feet and save for some Jiu-Jitsu a better-rounded fighter.  De Lima’s days are ahead of him but Efrain’s day is today.

Escudero +115 (or better)

Lee -150 vs. Prazeres +130

We believe folks are simply giving Prazeres too much credit for his win over Taisumov in Brazil last March (which was no doubt impressive).  Now the fire hydrant Prazeres travels out of his home country to take on a fighter in Lee that is longer, taller and sports a 10” reach advantage.  All that spells a bad spot for Michel. Lee opened -230 and is now -150.  Lee is more athletic and will win this fight in a one sided decision fashion we feel. 

Lee -150

(This one is rising get it now)

Holloway -440 vs Miller +355

Max Holloway is a capable striker on the ascent.  At 24 years old he is seasoned and capable but in this one he steps in with a guy that is taller, longer and will be the bigger man come the drop of the puck.  Plus Miller is miffed at being overlooked which to a degree he has been.  We like how miller enters this fight.  While we do worry about Miller’s chin our thoughts are that Miller will be able to get Max to the mat and when that happens the advantages all side with Cole Miller.  As with Escudero we feel the experience of Miller will allow him to be more than competitive in this fight tonight. 

Miller +355

Thatch -160 vs. Henderson +140

Soon after this bouts opening line was set Thatch money arrived taking Bendo to a price of +170 which was simply too much for us to overlook at the time.  Sure Bendo is being the company man by filling in for the UFC against Thatch on short notice but let’s not forget Bendo just got finished bull riding with Cowboy Cerrone** a few weeks back who himself at the time of that fight was almost as large and long a striker as Thatch will be tonight.  Thatch has not been out of the first round in months and while attending the Henderson camp last Saturday we got a glimpse into the dynamic work ethic that Ben is putting into this effort.  We feel once and if Bendo survives the first round he will grapple the longer Thatch on the mat and grind himself a notable win over a guy in Thatch that has nowhere near the experience of Henderson.  Ben Henderson is ‘live’ tonight at any price of over +130

Henderson +140

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

 

  • ‘Styles make Fights’ is a quote we attribute to the late great Angelo Dundee a man we looked up to since the 60’s.

** I understand that Cerrone purchased Super Bowl tickets for Henderson and wife after their last fight in essence acknowledging that Bendo was the superior man that night no matter what the decision was.

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: ,

UFC 183 Silva vs. Diaz: Desert Dominance

January 31, 2015 8:11 pm /

Silva vs. Diaz

 

Welcome Enthusiasts to UFC 183 where we have mucho to say and a few angles to play.  There have been some interesting line moves on these fights….some we agree with, some not.  At opening this card seemed steeped with mangy mongrels yet as we have neared the opening bell we’ve seen erosion in some of those underdog opportunities. Let’s account.

Last week: 5-2 + $430.00         UFC 2015: 10-6 +$690.00

(GambLou.com positions are understood to be for a standard any hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated.  We do this for transparency, accountability and to most simply display our bottom line results.  All results are posted each Monday AM).

-Let’s Fight-

Note: Jimmy Hettes +160 and ‘Kong’ Watson +140 are positions we wanted to make but those numbers are gone.  At current pricing we simply cannot recommend them.  With most of the mangy mongrels we have released below please do not hurry to pull the trigger on them as each may well rise in value as the fights approach.  Be patient with dogs as they usually gain value the closer the respective event is set to start.

Santos -170 vs. Enz +160

Here’s a fight where the value has not slipped away from us.  Santos is a guy we respect as he is an ex-paratrooper who’s also a capable fighter and seemingly chiseled out of granite. Santos faces a fighter in Enz that is seven years younger, 3” taller and owns a couple of inches in reach advantage.  Enz is the better-rounded fighter and owns clear advantages if he can get this fight off of the feet.  Santos’ last couple of fights have been against guys not built to take a fight to the floor.  Enz will be different and we feel Santos is in for a real tussle here with this kid who will do all in his power to smother the older fighter as they grapple, grovel and gruel.

Enz +160

Brunson -660 vs. Herman +520

These two were supposed to get it on in Phoenix some six weeks ago.  We were at that card and it was vexing that all of a sudden the fight was not held.  At the time Brunson closed –470.  We had released Herman +415 on that card so tonight we gain a buck plus of betting value?  Herman will enter the Octagon the larger heavier man tonight.  Herman gives up reach and wrestling ability to Brunson but we simply cannot overlook the value of a veteran banger like Herman who understands that his sole chance is to bust Brunson on his breakable beak and turn out his lights.  We have little issue if one decides to wait for there may even come another .25 cents of value by the time the parlay playing pukes get done with this one…

Herman +520 (half)

Leites -460 vs. Boetsch +380

We see this fight unfolding in similar fashion to the Phil Davis/Ryan Bader scrap.  Two almost mirror images of one another.  In Leites last few he’s looked sharp, quick and aggressive so the technical edge goes his way but his chin quite honestly is suspect.  Tim ‘the Barbarian’ while methodical has a heart the size of Maine and substantial power.  Leites opened -270 which we thought was a touch high and the line has risen steadily.  The Barbarian has been good to us.

Boetsch +380 (half)

Mein -140 vs. Alves +130

Mein opened -145 for this fight…a fair price.  Early action on Alves saw this number compressed to -110 when we announcing the position via Twitter.  Mein is taller, six years younger and sports a 5” reach advantage over a guy in Alves who has not fought since April of 2014.  Alves has had to overcome injuries and concussion issues to prepare and get ready for tonight’s fight…something we must point out.  Alves last win was against Seth Baczynski who in no way offers the speed, durability or power that Jordan Mein brings to the Octagon tonight.  While Mein does struggle with some inconsistency and at times a lack of urgency we believe this fight is made for him.  Watch us on Twitter as our early releases often provide clear market advantage.

Mein -110 (value -140 and under)

Iaquinta -235 vs. Lauzon +205

This fight opened Iaquinta -135/JoLo -105 if that does not give you enough hint of where we are going here.  Iaquinta is the younger man.  He is more athletic, comes from one spectacular fight camp and is motivated to continue his ascent to the Lightweight title.  Lauzon is the older man who many feel is nearing (or in) a descent of his fighting abilities.  Al will want to keep this fight standing where his advantages are and mar the older slower Lauzon with strikes.  Joe bleeds anymore from a light breeze and his chin is not what it was a few years ago so understand he does not want to fight this Al standing.

Lauzon wants an ugly fight; he wants to mangle the younger man on the mat where his advantages lie.  This is our Angelo Dundee, “styles make fights” reference for the day as this one is sure to be decided by where the fight takes place.  This is going to be one competitive fight.  Lauzon’s Experience, heart and guile may be the differences in the end.  Lauzon is also in a form of desperation mode for we know he fights for more than just himself (which can be a tangible/motivating factor).  We simply cannot overlook the value offered on Lauzon as this number is soaring out of control.  Tonight Al Iaquinta’s future Championship aspirations will not be stopped they’ll only delayed**.

Lauzon +205

(Patience as this one keeps soaring.  Grab every nickel of value you can)

Woodley -170 vs. Gastelum +160

As of this writing there is too much factual information we are unaware of to make any educated statements about the situations leading up to this fight.  What we know is this:  there is great statistical disadvantage when missing weight in UFC bouts*.  Kelvin Gastelum has a history of missing weight; Tyronn Woodley while victim here is disadvantaged by the lack of professionalism displayed by Gastelum who arrived to the weigh-ins 10 lbs. overweight. 

The game plan for each fighter in this fight was to walk right in and batter the opponent.  There was going to be no ‘Float Like a Butterfly…” in this match Enthusiasts.  So Gastelum gives some dough away for missing weight and now Woodley has to throw down (the only way he trained for this fight and the only way he fights) against a guy with at least a 10 Lb. weight advantage? We will be vexed if this fight is allowed to occur.  That said our position is for the professional fighter and we grabbed Woodley -110 at the moment of Gastelum’ s weigh announcement based on what we knew from the above referenced book and the look on Kelvin’s face at weigh-ins.  Something is awry in this fight.

Our plan of attack now will monitor line movement for our questions are many.  Will this fight go?  Will there be any information released concerning further details of this charade and finally, where will the line go for this fight as we approach it? This fight is now a pass if one currently has no position on it.

Silva -540 vs. Diaz +460

Our Intelligence resources from the darkest corners of Vegas tell us that Nicky came to cash a check then ‘catch a fire’….perhaps not in that order.  We have reason to believe the Diaz who happens to be the much smaller man and giving up reach in this bout against the GOAT spent weigh-in day at the gym in order to make weight.  We really see tons of talent in Nick Diaz but we do not see the drive….we only see the distractions.

There is a reason the UFC found a game guy that fights with fervor who will walk straight in and be the blank canvas for an artist like Anderson Silva.  Nicky thinks he’s playing the UFC but unfortunately for him, it’s the other way around tonight.

Silva ITD -150

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

*Fightnomics page 291 

** Al Iaquinta was good enough to converse with us this week on Twitter.  We respect the young man greatly and wish to make certain he knows that we admire/respect him greatly and know his future in the UFC is a bright one.  In Gaming as in Fighting sometimes one has to take a position (or fight) the one does not wish to take.  This is a perfect example.

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: ,

Money Morning UFC: Self-Improvement REQUIRED

January 26, 2015 2:23 pm /

self improvmentWelcome Enthusiasts.  Today we report our UFC profitability.  We had a successful UFC FN Saturday realizing a 4-1 tally from the write up’s provided via GambLou.com blog. We also added a couple of positions via Twitter during the fights that went 1-1 (Davis -185 and Robertson +165).  Please note that we record every  position released whether via the GambLou.com blog or if submitted live during the UFC events via Twitter.  We try to utilize Twitter for releases prior to events when we may be either losing line value or gaining it (see our comment on Jordan Mein yesterday) but on occasion when we ‘feel’ something during the event we will post via Twitter. 

FN Stockholm results: 5-2 + $430.00                      UFC 2015:   10-6 + $690.00

(GambLou.com positions are understood to be for a standard any hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated.  We do this for transparency, accountability and to display results against the UFC line-makers as we record all results each Monday AM.  It’s our belief that 40 years of being passionate about the fight game coupled with dynamic Due Diligence provide us the propensity to produce profit in the UFC).

Today’s point of emphasis is important.  Our position on both Phil Davis and Gustafsson ITD were not only losers but they were fights in which ‘live’ canines hit the board.  We’ve always prided ourselves on being able to spot live dogs but in these last two fights we missed both badly.  While we will not beat ourselves up too bad (we did bank bottom line after all) let’s not let it be forgotten that Ol’ Uncle Louie is never satisfied with ‘good’ results.  We strive for excellence and the Gus miss and the Phil late add were not salty choices and we expect better from ourselves.  We will utilize these two oversights as pure motivation to work on self-improvement for in this business if one does not improve one will lose their groove. 

Profitable Sports Gaming must be a constantly evolving practice.  Once one stops striving for excellence in becoming a more refined handicapper mark that day as the day one is doomed.  Yes we had a great night Saturday but we are not satisfied nor will we be happy with a result that should have been much more profitable.

Constant Self-Improvement must be mandatory in the unrelenting pursuit of

Gamblou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: ,

UFC FN Stockholm: Gustafsson vs. Johnson

January 24, 2015 5:21 pm /

Gus vs JohnsonGood Day Enthusiasts!  Today’s UFC card features Swedish Vikings, Rampaging Russians, Grappling Greeks, Arm dragging Americans  and if our eye is good enough perhaps even a stray Hallefors Elkhound* or two! 

The first two UFC cards of 2015 have been filled with favorites and from our perspective this card looks to be more of the same but we make our Krona* from uncovering value within these match-ups and discovering ugly unwanted mongrels from the droves of chalk chasing parlay playing pundits.  Again today those favorite fancying fools have given us line value to wager into.  Let’s trust our gut and ‘Swing it Easy’ understanding that there will be bottom line to bank come Monday Morning!

Last week’s UFC card was a  mucho profitable 4-1 +$350.00

(GambLou.com positions are understood to be for a standard any hypothetical $100 per release unless otherwise stated.  We do this for transparency, accountability and to display results against the UFC line-makers as we record all results each Monday AM.  It’s our belief that 40 years of being passionate about the fight game coupled with dynamic Due Diligence provide us to propensity to produce profit in the UFC).

UFC 2015:  5-4 +$260.00

-Let’s Fight-

Erokhin -370 vs. Pesta +320

Erokhin is making his debut to the UFC in this bout at the ripe age of 33.  He is a 5’11” granite bowling ball whose harrowing hooks resemble mule kicks.  The guy has power yet we have only seen film on this man.  Pesta appears to be a fragile chinned pasta eating Czech to outsiders but this grappling based MMA artist will be the much taller, longer, bigger fighter in the Octagon when the bell rings for round 1.  Pesta is nine years younger and arrives to this fight fresh off a 3 round schooling by Ruslan Magomedov who provided Pesta with his first defeat last May in Berlin.  If Pesta tries to stands with the Russian he’ll get caught.  Pesta’s plan will be to get this fight to the floor and eliminate the Russians power while mauling the older man into fatigue. 

Pesta +380 (Half)    Fight starts Rd. 2 +110

Krylov -120 vs. Nedkov +100

This line is not correct in our opinion.  Nedkov is a structured strong journeyman who has not fought since Feb. of 2013.  Krylov is a fighter that has the physical tools to be quite good in our opinion. He is 11 years younger, 4” taller and has a learning curve that we don’t believe will be interrupted tonight.  Krylov paints this man’s fence.

Krylov -120

Corassani -125 vs. Sicilia +105

This should be a competitive fight between two guys who understand that if they lose they begin to fill out job applications for another line of work.  To be fair to Corassani we must point out that his last two losses were to top contenders within the division yet we simply do not trust this fighter’s will.  When taken deep Akira seems to wilt.  Meanwhile Sicilia is clearly aware that if he loses this bout he’ll be straining spaghetti in his next job.  We liked what we saw from Sam at the weigh-ins.

Sicilia +105

Gustafsson -310 vs. Johnson +255

Rumble Johnson has our full respect.  We believe he has earned this opportunity and we also feel the guy’s humility and temperament make for one dangerous opponent for Gus tonight.  That said we can’t ignore the fact that Gustafsson has improved with every fight.  The training camp he has undergone with Phil Davis (also on tonight’s card) must be taken into account here for Davis recently fought and lost to Johnson….this is not to be taken lightly with regard to what Davis has relayed to Gus in a month’s long training camp.  Gustafsson has also been the beneficiary of a full 5 round war with Bones Jones….another feather in the experience factor favoring Alexander.

Johnson’s strength and power will be NO surprise to Gus.  We also feel that when this fight goes deep the ‘swole’ up Johnson may well become vulnerable.  One look at Johnsons resume’ provides us with the following reservations: first, he’s only been 3 rounds once as a light heavyweight and second, he has been submitted via RNC three times in his career.  To us this spells trouble for the underdog.  Gustafsson, at home after a comprehensive training camp in Cali will earn himself a rematch with Jones tonight.  So the angle we believe best suits us for a profitable return is…

Gustafsson ITD -105

(This prop broke -125 so we are eager to take advantage of the extra .20 cents of value in this position)

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

*Native Swedish canine

*Swedish Monetary unit

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: , ,

Money Morning $: NFL Championship grip & UFC bottom line

January 19, 2015 4:44 pm /

 

MLKHappy MLK day!  Before we begin filling out this week’s deposit for the past weekend’s profuse profitability, let’s take a minute to acknowledge and recognize what a fine day it is today to be able to pay honor to a great man that stood for the simplicity of ‘what is right’. 

I wish to pay my parents tremendous respect for they brought our family up in a household free of discrimination and ignorance….for any form of bigotry/hatred is simply that.  Second, we feel it is truly embarrassing that to this day we still grapple with the devastation that ignorance and hatred impart on our great society.  The Lord created us all as equals no matter one’s color, creed or net worth.  Let’ concentrate on our sameness as opposed to our diversities.

We borrow a powerful moniker in life and throughout the GambLou.com website (From the Bob Marley family) that says it simply and comprehensively….’OneLove’.

-Let’s account-

NFL

We’re pleased at the way our NFL season unfolded.  We were at the ass end of every bad bounce and missed FG for the first 10 weeks of this NFL campaign.  Our frustrations were such that we actually took week 11 off which manifested itself in a return to the GambLou.com win percentages we here have become accustomed to.  We finished 17-4 in weeks 12-17 for Clients which pushed us into the Playoffs with momentum and swagger.

Final 2014 NFL results 51-34 (60%)

(Total results for regular season and playoffs….just about 4 plays per week.  We preach adamantly about Selectivity and we practice what we preach.  This is our lowest win percentage in three years Enthusiasts.  Rest assured we are not satisfied with this result yet it is the result that we earned….transparency by design).

We realized a 2-1 result this Championship Sunday pushing our Playoff result to 6-2 with a half unit loss on a ML play earlier in the playoff season.

This leaves us with the Super Bowl which we view as a cross between New Year’s Eve and St. Patrick’s Day…..rookie night!  My Mom has as much chance of picking the winner of the SB as we do which is why we take the path of the ‘square’ during SB week as we focus on a bevy of low wager fun plays for the SB (We’ve played tails every year for 30 plus years now….get the point)!

Our 2014 NFL season is basically over and we begin to turn our attention to the Nags running at Santa Anita race track until Hockey reaches its playoff season.  Until then we will scour the Puck pages for insight and Intel as we take a 110% rest from point spreads, money lines and exotics until late April.  We’ve done this for years and find that three months of rest from this staring at computer screens is a magic elixir for Uncle Louie’s Profitable Sports Gaming acumen and accuracy.   

UFC

We were white hot this weekend in the UFC going 4-1 +$350.00 (at $100 per).  We take great pride in finding value in the UFC.  We have been passionate about the fight game since 1971 Ali/Frazier when as a 6th grade punk I obtained cutting edge technology by which to listen to the fight at night in my bed with my brothers on our brand new clock radio.  From that night on passion for the fights was as innate to us as breathing air!   We’ll tell you with 110% certainty that there are few fight Enthusiasts anywhere that can match our method or our result.  Any doubters simply need to pay attention to our positions over time and understand quickly how to fill out a deposit slip….. 

UFC 2015: 5-4 +$160.00

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted in: Money Morning, NFL, UFC / Tagged: , ,

UFC FN 59: Irish Insurgence

January 18, 2015 4:12 pm /

McGregorWelcome Enthusiasts to UFC’s Fight Night Boston.  We have a bevy of Irish fighters and home town ‘Boston strong’ fighters on this card punctuated by the main event.  The UFC continues its promotion of a new shiny toy, one Conor McGregor.  Before we discuss the stylistic set-up that the UFC has awarded McGregor (in the older, shorter, reach deprived Dennis Siver) let’s take a look at a few fights on this card.  We must say that it was difficult for us to spot live mongrels on this slate and for that reason we have kept our selections minimal. 

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming philosophy is simple:  Perform Dynamic Due Diligence, remain Supremely Selective and practice precision Money Management. We recognize these as foundations for Profitable Sports Gaming.  This formula (and 38 years of gaming experience) if adhered to will allow any to realize bottom line success in the business that we refer to as Profitable Sports Gaming.

UFC 2015: 1-3 <200.00>

(All GambLou.com positions are understood to be for a hypothetical and standard $100 per release.  We do this for ease of accounting as we provide full accounting for all positions each week in our Money Morning Blogs.  We try to provide readers with the blueprint to the bottom line by displaying our activity to any willing to read this. 

-Let’s Fight-

Sanchez -180 vs. Matsuda +160

We rarely go against the younger, longer fighter here but in this case the well rounded more experienced Matsuda should give Sanchez all he can handle. Matsuda is dropping down for this fight; he trains locally and is going to give his best effort.  A well rounded local giving his best at stray dog pricing?

Matsuda +160 (half)

Rosa -140 vs. Soriano +120

We view Rosa as the more complete fighter in this matchup.  Our issue with Soriano is that if taken to the second round we distrust his cardio which is a big issue as Rosa the home town kid will try to get this into the second half of the fight and test Soriano’s heart, cardio and will.  We feel there is value on the local.

Rosa -140 (half)

Larkin -165 vs. Howard +145

We are wary of Larkin even though we discussed him on the @misterquinbets podcast earlier this week.  Howard opened -115 and now the capable home town wrestler/grappler/fighter is +145.  We’re spooked so this is a no play for us tonight and honestly there could come a price where we actually jump Howard!

Tibau -140 vs Parke +120

We view Gleison Tibau as a world class grappler/wrestler who’s faced top level competition and is a couple of fights himself away from a swan song shot at  the title.  He owns the experience factor over the young Irish fighter; he has faced much better fighters in his career (he beat RDA in late 2011) and contrary to what many may think this guy is a real player in the Lightweight division.  Norm Parke is biting off plenty with this fight.  We understand his zeal to make a name for himself yet we think he is in over his skis in this spot.  Tibau opened -210 in this fight which we viewed as fair.  Current pricing on the more experienced southpaw prompts us to ‘Swing it Easy’.

Tibau -140

Henderson -135 vs. Cerrone +115

This is the third time these two will ‘get it on’.  Bendo has won both previous fights.  The first was a tremendous tussle and the second fight was a Bendo sub in round 1 that we believe is foundational to tonight’s fight.  We do have reservations with each guy though. 

With Benson we trust his work ethic, his professionalism and his fight acumen but we believe he is older in fight years than his 31 years of age.  Our belief is that if Benson drops this fight he is flirting with being relegated to second tier in this oh so deep division of fighters.  We are wary of the way he lost his last fight to RDA via KO and his recent history of being less active a fighter than he was a few years ago.  There is pressure on Henderson to prove to himself as well the rest of the Division that he is still a top Lightweight.  

With the Cowpoke our main concern is that he is stepping into the octagon tonight for the 6th time in some 14 months with his last bout being a complete miss-match against the misplaced Miles Jury.  There are no gimme’s in the UFC and staying razor sharp for 6 fights back to back inside a calendar year is no small feat in fact it is our only reservation with Cerrone.  That said we believe the hunger factor clearly resides with the Budweiser drinking risk taking Cerrone as do length and reach.  Cowboy did not have to undergo another camp for this fight for in reality all Jury was to him (in our opinion) was a top notch sparring session two weeks out from a major fight. 

We see Benson trying to get this fight to the floor with Donald attempting to soften Benson with strikes before testing his chin off of that KO in his last outing with everything he has….kicks, knee’s and the kitchen sink.  Lastly we believe it would be an arduous task for any lightweight in the UFC to beat Cerrone three straight times with the third time being in this situation tonight. 

Cerrone +115

McGregor -1250 vs. Siver +800

As the odds suggest this is a complete set-up fight for McGregor the new cash cow for the UFC.  The UFC is exporting is organization worldwide and a young talented Irish kid named Conor McGregor decided to drop in and contribute to the expansion.  The UFC is searching for competent mixed martial artists from regions throughout the world to fan the fire that is its growth and legitimacy as THE fighting organization of the World.  The newest jewel is highlighted today at UFC FN 59 and with a win he eps in to fight for the title.  The title shot to us is more the exportation of the UFC as they pit Ireland vs. Brazil to contribute to their ‘eminent domain’ as opposed to pairing the most deserving and competent fighters against one another to determine the true Champion.

So while Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Lamas (wresting based fighters who we believe would take the less seasoned McGregor to the mat for a maul) are left to wait their turn we get to see the Irish kid face the German kid in Beantown.  Now while we offer these insights please be certain that we understand the business nature and direction of the UFC even though we may disagree with it.  The UFC is a business.  Lamas and Edgar will eventually get their turn at the Champion in time and we’re not really as rattled by this path as we are eager to spell it out.

Focusing on this fight we have the younger, longer, taller, faster McGregor set up against one Dennis Siver who is tough like a fire hydrant but bleeds at an opponent’s sneeze.  While Siver is a competent fighter he lacks any real chance in this fight for he is giving away too many Fightmetric advantages against McGregor in our humble opinion.  In our attempt to scour for value in this fight we can find little….that said we came to gamble so here’s a move we made earlier this week

Fight starts round 2 +120

(Released on twitter a few days ago.  We will hold our breath for 5 minutes after they ring the bell.  Most of our trusted UFC Enthusiasts were quick to point out that we were chasing dragons with this play and we agree it is a gamble…..so let’s say it this way.  We do our own handicapping here.  If Siver can keep from bleeding for a few minutes we see him as durable enough and tough enough to get this one into the sixth minute).

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

 

    • Norman Parke is an Irish fighter that the UFC has been marketing alongside Conor McGregor. Parke has a future in the UFC, has talent and may well end up a decent fighter but this is not a good spot against the beguiling Tibau.
    •  
  • Occasionally we get a twinge at weigh-ins. We received interesting vibes when we viewed this guy Stallings and Hall when they weighed in. Once in a while we use s little ‘gut feel’ in gaming. We’ll exercise patience and see if this continues to rise in order to usurp every penny for such a large Labrador in Stallings. This move if made would be a move against Hall who’s shown some mental inconsistency in his career. The other mangy mongrel we saw that looked the part was Zhang Lipeng. He’ll enter this fight the much larger guy, is younger and could make things tough for Wade. A small position on each side is in order here…but wait and claim every clam you can.

 

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: , ,

Money Morning: NFL Divi$ional Depo$it$

January 12, 2015 4:05 pm /

Money Morning $Good Morning Enthusiasts.  We are down to three remaining NFL Playoff games. So while we grind for a few units of profitability remaining in the NFL Playoff season, we here at GambLou.com HQ are also preparing for a few weeks of R&R before we begin to actively participate in the NHL Playoff season.  We believe deeply that a few months off from staring at point spread movement on computer screens and grinding out profit via the NFL pays dynamic dividends regarding our perspective and profitability upon entering the Playoff Puck campaign.  Until then our due diligence in Pucks will be comprehensive as we prepare for the most passionate post season in sport. 

Besides comprehensive Puck R&D we’ll be relaxing and testing our mettle with the Nags at Santa Anita racetrack.  Horse Racing is a great way for Uncle Louie to decompress after a grinding fiscal year that begins with UFC then evolves into Puck Playoffs through Hardball Playoffs and into the NFL.  We also sprinkle exotic sports in the summer months to keep us sharp as we do not play the Hardball regular season.  Triple Crown Racing, Golf Majors and the College World Series are boutique sports we bank profit from year in and year out.

Cleansing the brain from pointspreads for a few months (Super Bowl to Puck Playoffs) is the best and most important practice we follow each year.  Besides, a short heavy Sicilian cat with no jumps has no business playing Hoops!  If we get the itch for a basketball move we will enlist any number of our friends from the East that slay baskets year in and year out for a tail….guys like @ChrisTorrisi, @BigFellaATM and @MisterQuinnbets are solid reputable professionals that we trust implicity.  They got the ‘it’ in baskets so if you are not following them now and are active in Basketball then we recommend you do!

Let’s deposit

NFL Divisional Playoffs 2-0 +200.00

We realized a 2-0 tally for the Divisional playoffs as our released Carolina +7 first half wager hit (after three try’s at that FG) coupled with a Patriot -1/Packer -1/2 Teaser.

NFL Playoffs to date: 4-1 +$240.00

(based on the standard and hypothetical 100 per play) add a half unit loss on a ML play in the WC round (which is taken into account in the above net profit number).

Remember Enthusiasts, Due Diligence, Selectivity and Money Management are the foundations of….

Gamblou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted in: Money Morning, NFL, NFL Consulting / Tagged:

Money Morning $ Tuesday edition

January 6, 2015 5:34 pm /

$ down drainGood day Enthusiasts. As usual we account for every dad gummed penny of our Gaming endeavors each Monday AM.  Unfortunately we were swamped at the career gig Monday so we are a day late in publishing relatively weak results for the start of 2015.

In UFC 182 we realized a 1-3 -200 result for the card.  While our pride is dented our determination and drive are not.  As explained in our UFC 182 write up these four wagers are but a fraction of the 125 +/- UFC positions we will post this year so while it is a start we are not pleased with it is a start that we earned.

Profitable Sports Gaming like rust never sleeps Enthusiasts so we will record this result and focus forward. We don’t look back here whether it is to gripe about results or boast about deposits.  Looking back is the fools practice.  We are professionals here and we choose to make our moves record the results then move on.  In this case we will do exactly that as we now turn our due diligence to the Beantown brawls, UFC FN 59 on January 18th.

In the NFL we threw up a stinker also.  Clients realized a 1-2 result with an additional half unit loss on a moneyline position….again not what the blueprints called for but a result we earned.

We feel that the occasional set back is actually good for us for it forces us to regroup, rethink, become more dependent on our Due Diligence process and selectively win our way out of the funk.  Read us all year and there will be few of these Monday morning setbacks but you can trust this….win lose or draw our profitability will be written up here because it is critical to record results if one s running a business.

Over the course of the calendar year our UFC profitability will be prevalent and profuse as will these last few weeks in the NFL playoffs.  We work to realize the bottom line and encourage all to do the same.  Do not allow one poor week to affect your plan of success nor should you allow one off week turn into monumental loss by chasing the dragon.  Plan your plays, work your plan then record your result and move forward.  There is no shortage of gaming opportunites available. Relax, is our best advice….perform dynamic due diligence, remain supremely selective and for gosh darn sake’s manage your money!

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted in: Uncategorized

UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier

January 3, 2015 5:39 pm /

Jones CormierWelcome Enthusiasts to our 2015 UFC campaign. What’s motivating about the New Year is that today our profitability for the Year stands dead even.  No longer will we be able to drop last year’s result of 64-63 +$3,853.00 on readers…rather we will need to earn in 2015 and we’re as ready as Bones Jones and Dan Cormier are tonight to do exactly that this year.

Please note: although tonight’s fight(s) are more meaningful in scope and magnitude within the universe that is UFC fighting, tonight’s releases are just few of a potential 120+/- fight wagers we will invest in during 2015 (we say this just by tracking last year’s positions) so realize that this 2015 UFC campaign is a marathon not a sprint.

We rarely invest other than a single unit on each fight and we are extremely Selective in the positions we release.  In our case we utilize a standard wager amount of $100 so that accounting is easy to perform.  We profess that within the practice of Profitable Sports Gaming, Money Management is a most critical practice.  If we pare down or double up on a position we always advise so in writing for all GambLou.com positions released are defined up front, delivered in writing and accounted for every Monday AM in our Money Morning Blog.  We perform unusual Due Diligence in arriving at our sides/totals/props.  This approach coupled with the more than 40 years we have been passionate about investing in Championship fights are the foundation for all GambLou.com positions.  When it comes to the Championship fight game we have seen much and we look forward to seeing more.

-Let’s fight-

Akhmedov -175 vs. Nilsson +155

In one corner we have a raging aggressive striking Russian machine.  In the other corner stands a submission enthusiast younger, longer and taller than the madman. We believe the Russian is high on guts but low on fight IQ.  When Nilsson opened he was -105 and we like it then!

Nilsson +150 (half)

Brimage -175 vs. Garbrandt +155

We view this fight as a fine example of experience vs. potential.  All who read us know that unless there are unusual circumstances (see later write up on main event) we try to side with the longer, rangier, younger professional which happens to be Garbrandt.  Marcus Brimage though is a slick lefty who we feel will test the youngster in what we believe could be one of the best fights of the night.

Fight starts round 3 -130 (half)

Cerrone -160 vs. Jury +140

Cowboy Cerrone is a long, tall Budweiser drinking bad ass.  This guy can strike, kick and submit.  His weakness if there is one may be his cardio and his susceptibility to body strikes.  Cowboy’s opponent is a silent yet deadly fighter who few know about because he does his speaking with his fight game and is an understated man.  Cerrone opened    -150 which seemed close to us yet it ballooned to a point where we just had to grab the number and announce this position via twitter some days ago (Jury +190).

Weighing heavily in our decision is the fact that Cowboy is entering the Octagon for the fifth time inside the last 12 months tonight.  That’s mucho activity…..it’s also most difficult to be right on the razor’s edge for five straight fights in the UFC with the fighters these guys face each time out.  Jury is well suited to hog tie the capable Cowboy here and we believe this is Jury’s fight tonight based on his ability to get it deep test Cowboy’s will and hurt the Cowpoke with body work.

Jury +150

Jones -175 vs. Cormier +155

Like we said, it is difficult for us not to look diligently at any fight where there is a younger, taller, longer fighter facing off against one who is giving up all those documented fight advantages yet in this fight we choose to do just that.

We respect Bones as a special fighter and Champion yet even Superman had Kryptonite.  Jones list of dominated challengers is long and impressive but so too is the wear and tear his body has taken from recent wars.  Jones has been on top for a long time and while his talents are special we believe that his day has come.

Dan Cormier carries the chip of the ignored overlooked challenger with him.  All can see that within he seethes with ambition for this fight.  Cormier longs to make the cockier Champion pay him respect and his chance to enforce that comes tonight.  Wrestlers never got/get any due outside their own sport until recently when the UFC allowed these guys to display their most impressive fight skills and Jones has mocked and chided the fire hydrant.

Fighting with Cain Velasquez and the camp that Cormier has created to prepare himself for this fight has convinced us that he is prepared for this challenge.  Months ago we had real questions about Cormier’s knee yet because of a knee injury to Jones (ultimate irony) this fight was postponed long enough for us to feel that there is nothing stopping Cormier from smothering Bones tonight in a 110% maul on the mat.  We absolutely believe that Cormier will get in and he will get inside Jones at will.  Cormier’s approach will be to negate Jones length and grope him like a drunk on a lightpole.  In our estimation the fans will not like this fight at least in the fashion that we see it taking place for beauty to us tonight will be Cormier on top of Jones for 25 minutes hounding him with ground and pound and forcing the Champion succumb to the unknown wrestler.

Dan Cormier +150

(We took this price weeks ago. Anything over +150 is worthy of a position)

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 

Posted in: UFC / Tagged: , ,