Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires, Brazil. Tonight’s card will do wonders for the expansion efforts of the UFC into Argentina while at the same time signifies one of the final cards under the current Fox contract. As is the case since the beginning of the year, below is my VSiN ‘Point Spread Weekly’ breakdown of the main event followed by updated comments and any releases immediately following.

One more note: as you are aware the main event portion of my blogs are published each Wednesday on VSiN’s weekly publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’. This subscription based weekly newsletter is packed full of gaming intel and covers all of the betting sports for that week.

I have been authorized to offer my readers a special offer of all remaining “Point Spread Weekly’ publications from now until the end of the Super Bowl. Their current offer is a $99 mid-season special which gives you all access to Point Spread Weekly and video through the Super Bowl). Anyone using the Promo code ‘Lou’ will be able to get all access for just $79. It’s the wisest $79.00 smackers you’ll ever spend…. believe me. If you have interest use this promo code:   https://www.vsin.com/promo

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

--Originally published 11-14-18 Point Spread Weekly—

This week’s UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires is Argentina’s first ever UFC production as native and number ten ranked Welterweight Santiago Ponzinibbio will host eighth ranked American Neil Magny in an important fight in the UFC’s Welterweight division.

As is customary with these overseas UFC slate’s the match-ups often feature lesser known local and regional talent so many fights outside the main event may only appeal to hard core UFC fans and handicappers such as myself.

Santiago Ponzinibbio -320 vs. Neil Magny +280 Welterweight (170lbs) Main Event

Santiago Ponzinibbio, is a kickboxing, BJJ based fighter who is athletic, explosive and constantly forward pressuring. He has power in both hands and has been victorious inside the Octagon against both strikers and submission specialists alike even though he may not be the most decorated of fighters when it comes to titles and awards. Ponzi is undefeated in his last six fights dating to 2015 and has finished three of those opponents inside the distance.

Neil Magny is also a fighter undecorated as far as accolades/designations may be concerned and ships in from Colorado to face Ponzi in his own back yard. While Magny is a brown belt in BJJ and has unusual size/length for the division, what’s important is that he’ll possess a three-inch reach advantage over the six foot Ponzi as well have an obtuse seven-inch reach advantage. Magny’s experience and deeper level of competition have prepared him well for this opportunity to enhance his ranking within the division with a win against Ponzi in Buenos Aires.

In the event this is a striking affair (and that is exactly what I expect) Magny’s length, movement and cardio will make him quite a challenge for Ponzi, a fighter who is going to have to find a way to negate Magny’s space, press him against the cage and attack the long lean Magny with unrelenting body work and bombs to the beak.

Magny of course must utilize his length, his kicking game and especially movement to keep Ponzi outside and at range of his strikes in order to inflict constant peppering damage and slowly usurp the quickness from the aggressive incoming mauler.

Thus we have the ‘cat and mouse’ that will be this main event.

Ponzinibbio will be trying diligently to impress the family, friends and countrymen of his homeland while Magny will be looking to do to Ponzi what Ponzi did to Gunnar Nelson in June of last year when he traveled into Glasgow and knocked the local favorite Nelson cold.

The one key to this five round fight in my judgement is this; how will Magny navigate the first round or two while Ponzi is fresh and firing forward? Then as the fight hits the middle rounds (if it does) the question now becomes, how will Ponzi cope with the endless movement, conditioning and striking Magny will be certain to employ?

I handicap Ponzi as a -200 to -220 favorite in this fight even in Argentina so current pricing is nearing the strike price of Magny +300 or better.  I’ll wait and monitor weigh-ins and late line movement in this fight and try to capture Magny at a price of +300 or better.

I’ll provide all updates after Friday’s weigh-ins and a full write up for this fight and any other releases Saturday morning at GambLou.com.

Updated 11-17-18 10am EST

Well fight fans as we notice the line on the main event is now exactly as I had stated is should be earlier this week as currently Ponzinibbio -215 is the market price. I find no current value on this main event nor any other match-ups on this card. I consider this slate to be lacking in any real meaningful matchups as well thin on overall talent in fact I find the production weak and poorly constructed which is not a compliment to the UFC as it exits is Fox contract by tossing fighters together simply to fill slots as opposed to present meaningful fights to its clientele.

While the ‘Makers must always line fights, we as bettors get the opportunity (control) to decide whether the wagering is value laden or not. In this case, I’ll pass on this whole card other than the release made yesterday on @Twitter of Botelho -150.

Remember, we’re not in it for the action, we’re in it for the profit. It’s business.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 230 from New York City! Until very recently MMA was banned in New York state so for the organization to be able to export its brand in such a populated and fan feverous area is outstanding. While I’m surely known for diagnosing dogs in my delivery of the bottom line it must also be noted that I always strive to be refined and selective in my releases.

To date in the UFC Favorites stand 238-110-14 (65.7%) which explains why I practice discipline when wagering mangy mutts across all the sports I work but most especially the UFC understanding this data.

Today I have three capable canines, all of which will be found below after my main event breakdown that appeared on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ publication this past Wednesday. A worthy investment for any looking to sharpen and refine their Profitable Sports Gaming skills with opinions from all forms of handicapping means and styles.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight the Octagon UFC 230 (originally published 10-31-18)

Champion Daniel Cormier -700 vs. Derrick Lewis +500 Heavyweight Title fight (265lbs.)

There’s a dynamic difference in fighter expertise in this Heavyweight title fight which explains the steep favorite’s price found on Cormier.

Thirty-three-year-old Derrick Lewis is a bona-fide heavyweight fighter that actually drops weight in order to make the 265lb. limit for the weight class. He sports a 21-5-1 record in professional fights, is 12-3 in his eight year UFC career and has had his hand raised in nine of his last ten UFC match-ups.

Lewis makes no bones about the fact that he is a brawler whose basic fight experience was earned in the streets of New Orleans. Lewis does not possess any fancy designations from any martial arts specialties nor is his physique typical of a world class fighter (rather a world class eater). It is a bit of a paradox that a massive man with little to no fight diversity can survive; even earn victories in the UFC without specialized training and expertise. Lewis is one exception and he’s not only survived, he’s thrived.

What makes Lewis potent in the Octagon simply put is his profuse power. He owns the most KO’s in the history of the UFC heavyweight division as well has the second highest significant strike count from the floor in UFC history as well.

Lewis has a right hand that once delivered can turn the lights out on a city block, he’s unusually athletic and explosive for a man his size. He sports formidable take down defense, a most dangerous ground and pound game and innate toughness to go with a granite chin.

Lewis in this and every fight he enters will look to walk the opponent down and engage is a storm of strikes but he has limited time to effectively deliver punishment to opponents for his cardio is questionable and he’s been susceptible to damaging body attacks from opponents. Lewis also has had a long history with back issues which can make things arduous when fighting all out in a cage against heavyweight fighters trained to take one’s consciousness from them.

Champion Daniel Cormier is almost a complete opposite of Lewis as a fighter for Cormier is an accomplished D1/Olympic freestyle wrestler, a brown belt in BJJ and highly versed in kickboxing. In every aspect of mixed martial arts Daniel Cormier is more versed than is Lewis and though Cormier’s physique can also be a bit misleading, he is strong as a country mule, extremely athletic and is trained for twenty-five minutes of warfare. Cormier as a Light-heavyweight was large and powerful but as a Heavyweight he is strong, quick and agile.

Cormier’s biggest advantages in fights are his athleticism and high intelligence. He’ll need to apply these and all of his skills Saturday as Lewis will have dynamic physical advantages over DC (four inches of height, a seven- inch reach advantage and a two-inch reach advantage with his legs). DC must address Lewis with caution especially early in this fight as he is keenly aware that Lewis can end it at any time with one ‘Sunday shot’.

This fight should be competitive early for Cormier will have to work on ‘the black beast’ in order to tire him and drain him of his will to continue. He’ll do this by working his way inside of Lewis, pressing him up to and against the fence to maul. He’ll also look to soften up that big jelly belly with kicks when at distance and press Lewis to exert energy in every second of the fight. While Cormier has power and finishing ability, ‘the Beast’ is a huge man and has a strong will so Cormier’s path to victory will be the same as that of a matador in a bull fight. He must work to force ‘the beast’ into exerting precious energy in order to drain it of its will, and then finish the task.

Cormier will respect Lewis’ athleticism, explosion and power for he knows Lewis can put him out with a clean connection. DC, by forcing Lewis to exert energy at every turn of the fight can begin to effectively eliminate his distance and ability to put power behind his telegraphed shots. An intelligent cautious long term fight plan will in time usurp the beast of his cardio. As that happens this fight will become one sided and Lewis more desperate for the finish.

I expect sometime after the start of the second or third round Cormier’s relentless pursuit, smothering style and athleticism/quickness will have sapped Lewis of his strength and his most important fight trait, his will.

I believe that Cormier finishes Lewis (Cormier ‘Inside the Distance’ prop is -450) but I won’t chase heavy chalk with little to no value so I’ll offer a proposition and allow readers to decide if a shot on Lewis to shock the world is in order for Saturday’s UFC 230. ‘Swing it Easy’.

Cormier wins in round 2: +270 (half)

Cormier wins in round 3: +780 (half)

--Updated 11-3-18 11:30am EST--

Weidman -160 vs. Souza +150

Weidman is the taller, longer wrestling based fighter who gets the privilege of fighting within miles of his home for the second straight fight. He holds physical advantages over Souza and can surely compete in this fight but in my estimation Weidman and Souza should be a pick-em fight even if it is in Weidman’s home town. While I’m confident in Weidman’s fight acumen, it’s his mental state I worry most about for I feel he enters this one with more questions than certainty about his game. Souza on the other hand, is a master of BJJ and though he has shown in past fights to wear as the fight evolves let’s not forget who he has been in there with. Souza went a full fifteen minutes with Romero who mowed Weidman down. Souza has guile, grit and has evolved into a capable striker and it’s his striking in this fight that I believe will be the difference.

Souza +150

Arce -240 vs. Moraes +220

Arce is a boxing based local who is steady, tough, durable but somewhat one dimensional and lacks striking power as his prescription here is to use speed and precision to take Moraes deep then gain advantage. Moraes enters with experience in the octagon against Magomedshapirov which far exceeds the capability of any fighter Arce has been in with. I believe Moraes is a real mangy mutt in this situation.

Moraes +220

Jackson -155 vs. Kelleher +145

Jackson has the physical tools yet is shy on experience while Kelleher will be the much smaller man with a more complete fight arsenal. Kelleher must take the athletic Jackson into the second round and force the fight to him for success.

Kelleher +145

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 138 from Moncton, New Brunswick Canada. Today’s card is the first of ten full fight cards lined up to finish off 2018 and those cards have some opportunistic match-ups as I look ahead and plan the finish to this year. For that reason, I’ll limit today’s releases mainly because I find the line up to be particularly one sided and laced with mismatches.

Remember people, we are in the profitability business not the ‘action’ business. Our goal tonight is to hit this main event and have a little fun on a couple of bombs shots as we pin our ears back with the focus solely on maximizing our UFC bottom line profitability in this last segment of the year.

As usual we’ll start with my breakdown of the main event. This article was originally published on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ publication this past Wednesday. I might say that PSW is well worth your time and money if you are a serious sports handicapper and want great content from a variety of sports handicappers who all have their own manner and style.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight The Octagon: The final quarter of 2018 (published 10-24-18)

As we approach the final months of the 2018 UFC schedule let’s recap the year’s results and highlight a few of the marquee match-ups the UFC will offer fight fans in the last quarter of 2018 before we provide an angle for this week’s UFC FN 138 main event from Moncton New Brunswick.

Both Khabib Nurmagomedov (-165) and Scott Holtzman (+220) were victorious in UFC 229. Profitability for 2018 releases published here on ‘Point Spread Weekly’ stand: 13-12 +3.1units.

It seems tradition that the UFC features high profile match-ups on the cards that are held each November and December. Fight cards I’ll be breaking down as we approach the end of the calendar year are as follows:

November 3rd UFC 230 from New York City features Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier facing Derrick ‘the Black Beast’ Lewis for Cormier’s Heavyweight belt. Co-main event for that card pits Jacare’ Souza against Chris Weidman, two top Middleweight contenders who’ll square off with the winner sure to be considered the next challenger to Champions Robert Whittaker’s belt.

Denver, Co is the location for a November 10th’ UFC Fight Night where all-time great Featherweight Frankie Edgar will face ‘the Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung in an elimination bout. The co-main event of that card will be an intra-gym grudge match between Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and ‘Platinum’ Mike Perry both of whom train out of Jackson/Winklejohn in Albuquerque. We’ll have mucho to say about this one when the time comes.

The next two fight night cards will be held out of the Country as UFC FN 139 will take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina then on to Beijing China for FN140 where Curtis Blaydes gets a Heavyweight rematch against the only man to defeat him since he’s been in the UFC….Francis Ngannou the once scary now scared Ugandan striker.

December’s schedule comes loaded with four fight cards, a fight night from Australia then UFC 231 which offers a much anticipated Featherweight title fight between Champion Max Holloway against undefeated challenger Brian Ortega from Toronto, Canada. Its then on to Milwaukee, WI. for another fight night before the New Year’s Hiatus UFC 232 in Las Vegas where Alex ‘the Mauler’ Gustafsson will face Jon ‘Bones’ Jones in his return to the UFC after his second ‘performance enhancing’ suspension. Gustafsson took Jones five full and lost a tight decision five years ago and this rematch is much anticipated.

UFC Fight Night 138 Saturday 10-27-18

Vulcan Oezdemir -185 vs. Anthony Smith +160 Light Heavyweight Main Event (205lbs.)

Anthony Smith is an imposing 6’4” fighter who’s realized a 7-2 run while in the UFC by utilizing his size, length and power to batter a list of fighters that are now either shot and retired or are no longer actively fighting in the UFC. Smith has substantial power and has been able to dominate the smaller, older and less experienced fighters whom he has built his record on. Smith on the occasions he’s faced world class competition struggles. Well-versed, aggressive opponents that take the fight to Smith and pressure him have success.  Smith is a fighter that absolutely looks the part but when he gets inside the cage with a bully built for brawling he can be stopped. At thirty, Smith has forty-three professional bouts (30-13) and has lost twelve of his thirteen via KO or submission. Though not old Smith’s tread as worn, his competition level weak and his inability to go the distance in previous fights is a flaw. Smith’s success must come early as his cardio and porcelain chin can be flaws as fights progress.

Vulcan Oezdemir in his two-year stint in the UFC has already bested better competition than Smith has faced and his only loss was a relatively competitive KO at the hands of Daniel Cormier this past January. Oezdemir is a developing yet one dimensional striking, kick boxing based fighter. He’ll give away some size and reach to Smith but his forward pressure, his power punching and his granite jaw together make him every bit the favorite in this fight.

When the bell for round one rings I look for each of these men to meet in the middle of the Octagon like two raging rhino’s as neither of these cats wants this on the floor and each one’s strength is the other’s. In this confrontation however it will be Oezdemir who will display more cardio and durability each minute the fight wears on. I believe he’ll be in position finish Smith in the later second or third round.

Oezdemir, currently -185 (opened -165) is a steep price (for this dog player) but as mentioned, I believe he is a worthy chalk. For those of you wishing to obtain more value, I would suggest the Oezdemir ‘ITD” (inside the distance) prop which can be found at +165.

Updated 10-17-18 10:45am EST

As of this writing I have no firm grip on any mangy mutts on this card to be honest and I’m not going to press it with 10 fight cards approaching. Look for any additional releases to come via @Twitter should I get more comfortable with a couple of the ugly mangy Canadian cockers I’m considering.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Nurmagomedov -160

Holtzman +260

Formiga +155

Below is my completre write up for the main event originally publsihed 10-3-18 on VSiN's Point Spread Weekly.

Saturday’s UFC 229 from Las Vegas, NV features one of the most anticipated fights in its history as undefeated Russian Lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov puts his title on the line when he faces Conor McGregor, the man who held that title previously but vacated in order to take the Floyd Mayweather super fight last August. I often attribute the ‘Styles make fights’ adage to the late great boxing trainer Mr. Angelo Dundee and in this matchup of dominant fighters that quip is most appropriate.

Khabib Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Conor McGregor +145 UFC Lightweight Title (155 lbs.)

UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov is an ‘International Master of Sport’ in Sambo, Judo, Pankration and ‘Army hand-to-hand combat’ besides being a Russian military veteran and a decorated National wrestler. Few that understand this sport could claim Nurmagomedov is short on the qualifications that comprise a world class fighting machine.

In the Octagon, Nurmagomedov works tirelessly to pressure opponents and render the fight uncomfortable for them by being dominant in his ‘modus operandi’ which is a grappling, clasping, mauling form of fighting. He strives to earn dominant position on the mat where the Russian smothers the opponent while inflicting damage. He relies upon his conditioning as an advantage in fights as his high output aggression eventually usurps the will from his opponents.

Nurmagomedov single focus will be to unleash unrelenting forward pressure to eliminate McGregor’s space then try to clasp and drag him to the floor to gain top position. In his element, when he has the fight going as he mandates, Nurmagomedov is dominant and no one up to Saturday has been able to withstand his pressure.

Nurmagomedov’s greatest area of improvement (often the case with dynamic wrestling /grappling based fighters) is to gain effectiveness/fluidity in striking and slipping opponents strikes as both require the control and manipulation of space. While He has shown great improvement in striking development, Nurmagomedov will be giving away natural striking expertise to the Irishman as McGregor is a savant at controlling space and distance with his movement.

The key to this fight is how/when Nurmagomedov is able to eliminate McGregor’s space in order to gain the clinch. Nurmagomedov must not be predictable, slow or plodding when he attempts to gain the inside or he’ll be victim of those lightning quick precision power shots McGregor is yearning to unleash.

By now even those outside the realm of UFC interest are aware of the magnetism and voracious personality not to mention the extraordinary striking talent of the former UFC Lightweight Champion Conor McGregor. McGregor who is a purple belt in BJJ is a striker but honestly that description is not thorough enough to describe his unique combination of size, length, speed, intrinsic fluidity of movement and profuse power.

For a Lightweight, McGregor is used to being the much larger man in the Octagon. His length usually provides him at least two inches of reach advantage over most competitors (since the inception of the UFC fighters with two inches of reach advantage or more hold a 59% advantage in UFC fights) and in this fight he’ll own a four inch reach advantage over Nurmagomedov.

McGregor’s athleticism and natural talent form a lethal fighting combination but he is reliant on his ability to keep his fights standing and in this bout he’ll NOT be the larger man so McGregor’s take down defense will ultimately determine his fate in this fight.

McGregor’s popularity and leverage within the organization have allowed him to tailor his opponents to fit his style. Instances where McGregor looked his best are when he faced fighters that do not have his size, reach and/or striking ability and power. McGregor HAS been tested (and bested) is when he is forced to compete against fighters his size or larger and/or fighters that have wrestling/grappling prowess.

McGregor, who’s been out of the Octagon for two years now must control space, he must make the Russian chase while simultaneously peppering him with precision power punches. Forcing Nurmagomedov into impatience is the cornerstone of McGregor’s plan for it is when the Russian becomes frustrated and begins to force his way inside recklessly that McGregor will be able to control space and earn angles for power punches.

Part of Conor McGregor’s fight brilliance also happens to be talking his opponent into frustration, anger, distraction or ‘all of the above’. It’s my judgement that in the buildup to this fight and at the press conference just a week or so ago McGregor’s disrespectful chiding of Nurmagomedov’s father (while slugging his new Whiskey with UFC kingpin Dana White) provided Nurmagomedov with more intense focus on this fight as opposed to any other emotion. It also displayed a ‘tell’ I have witnessed in all meteoric ascending successful superstar fighters for almost fifty years now and that is Decadence.  

The history of fighting is laced with examples of generationally gifted fighters who come from poor, dismal upbringing who then experience immediate notoriety, fame, income and all that comes with those. In most cases the vices acquired via their own success is what contributes to their fall more than any opponent.

I believe McGregor’s lavish lifestyle complete with Lear Jets, Veuve Clicquot, designer suits, fast cars and name brand liquor will have a very negative affect on Conor McGregor the fighter Saturday night. After five to seven minutes it’s my judgement that he’ll wilt under the unrelenting pressure Nurmagomedov delivers.

Nurmagomedov -160

Alan Patrick -290 vs. Scott Holtzman +260 Lightweight fight (155lbs.)

Patrick travels to the US after relatively manageable fights in his home country Brazil. He’s a thirty-five year old black belt in BJJ who surely lacks power and perhaps lacks heart. Holtzman has been in with more capable completion, is an improving fighter and is in a favorable position to win this fight against Patrick who may not fare well against Holzman’s forward pressure.

Holtzman +260 

Pettis -175 vs. Formiga +155

Formiga +155

(Holtzman and Formiga pending weigh-ins ..waiting on both underdogs as price may creep up). Full write ups later this week.

UFC 229 releases can be found on VSiN's publication Point Spread Weekly.

I'll be live on 'The Edge' with Matt Youmans and Erin Rynning 1:30PST Friday VSiN.com, VSiNLive and Sirius ch204 to discuss UFC 229 and the NFL week 5.

I'll also be on the Games Galore podcast today with my friend Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards and will release that link when available...It's Business. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night 137 from Sao Paolo, Brazil. The main event has resembled more a shell game than a headline fight as there have been numerous changes made before finally settling on Santos vs. Anders. As usual with these foreign cards, local and regional talent is highlighted and in most cases awarded favorable match-ups. While this leads to great marketing for the region it does not do a lot for competitive matchmaking in so far as the card is steep with heavy favorites. The final main event however sets up to be quite a stand up battle where either fighter has a distinct yet similar path to victory.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

-The following is my Santos vs. Anders breakdown originally published 9-18-18 for VSiN’s “Point Spread weekly”. I’ll provide today’s updates after that article-

Sao Paolo, Brazil hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night 137 where numerous main event changes and many regional/local Brazilian fighters make for another relatively obscure fight card.

The originally scheduled Main event was a Light- Heavyweight (205 lb.) marquee matchup pitting Brazilian Glover Teixeira with Englishman Jimi Manuwa. In my estimation (and I believe in Manuwa’s) Teixeira was made for Manuwa stylistically and maybe Teixeira knew this as he pulled out of the fight early with ‘injury’.

Manuwa was then placed in a similar situation, preparing an old, slow Light-Heavyweight in Teixeira when Middleweight slugger Thiago Santos (another Brazilian fighter) stepped in to grab the main event exposure and fight at Light-Heavyweight (205 lbs.) even though Santos fights at Middleweight (185lbs.).

Mysteriously and just a week ago, Jimi Manuwa pulled out of the fight after having incurred ‘injury’ and will now be replaced by Eryk Anders who fought in August on the card from Lincoln, Ne. Anders was more than willing to grab the opportunity to gain his second Main Event opportunity from the Mecca of MMA, Brazil in less than a year.

It’s my opinion that the cause of ALL of the changes in the main event on this card is based on one fighter having the ‘good sense’ and/or career incentive to duck the more dangerously styled replacement.This refurbished fight card now features a main event where ironically advantage may lie with the replacement fighter (Anders) as opposed to the fighter who has been preparing for the event for weeks.

So in Saturday’s Main event from Sao Paolo the UFC will present us with two active Middleweight fighters (185 lbs.) that will fight on a Main Event as Light-Heavyweights. Santos for his part has been able to appropriately prepare for 205 lbs. (which means he has little to no weight cut in order to make weight).

Anders, who has been maintaining his conditioning for exactly this form of opportunity, now steps into a main event in Brazil where he won’t have to compromise his opportunity to be victorious by trying to cut abundant weight to get to 185.  Though his notice for this fight was just seven days or so his cut will be manageable as he can easily attain the 205 lb. limit. Clearly Anders has been in the gym since that August victory.

We don’t often get as many ‘moving parts’ affecting a fight as this one so I find this match-up intriguing as well challenging. Let’s break it down now that the table is set.

Thiago Santos -145 vs. Eryk Anders +125 Light Heavyweight Main Event (205lbs.)

Santos is not your typical BJJ artist from Brazil who wished to flop on the floor looking to submit the opponent. Rather he is a heavily muscled, profusely powered slugger that can turn an opponent’s lights out with one shot which is why Manuwa wanted no part of him in his own back yard.

Santos who is a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ has little defense against take downs, is quite one dimensional despite the BJJ background and is ineffective fighting from the floor should a fight go there. Santos biggest challenge is his ability to maintain his energy after a full round as he is muscled and has shown a tendency to slow after a full five minutes of battle. Couple this with a glass jaw and you have a fighter in Santos who really would have preferred a slower Jimi Manuwa over an explosive athlete in Anders. If Santos is to win this fight or any fight, it will be with his stand up and via KO and that would have been a bit more manageable against Manuwa than Anders in my judgement.

Eryk Anders steps in on a week’s notice for a dynamic career opportunity. He’s an ex-Alabama linebacker so we know he is tough, athletic and physical albeit somewhat developing in his professional UFC fight experience.

Anders career displayed great promise and ascent up until February of this year when as a hyped and hugely under experienced UFC combatant he accepted a fight against a beguiling experienced Lyoto Machida in Belem, Brazil and earned his PhD. in MMA (Machida schooled the kid and won in a split decision).

Anders is a purple belt in BJJ but also a striking based fighter by nature but as an ex-linebacker I know he can tackle and in this fight we may well see the kid bury Santos and make this fight a maul on the mat. He is very capable of executing take downs on Santos. His experience of fighting in Brazil earlier this year to disappointing results and his willingness to take this fight on seven days-notice all speak volumes for in my estimation the athletic Anders is a poor match-up for Santos in this Anders second trip to Brazil.

Anders power, athletic/explosive ability and his granite chin together make me feel that this fight should be more closely lined; in fact, I make this fight close to pick-em.

One may question Anders cardio having only a week to prepare for this fight and that is fair. It’s my judgement that he’s been preparing for an opportunity since he stepped out of the Octagon in August and he has the potential of being richly rewarded for being a prepared professional.

Fighting in Brazil will not intimidate Anders Saturday for he’ll arrive there this week feeling that he owns the Brazilian people more ‘fight’ than he showed this past February. Anders plan will be to exercise caution early and take the fight to Santos, force the slugger to exert energy which will eventually sap his speed, power and will.

Anders at a dog price is worthy of an investment.

Anders +125

-Updated Saturday 9-22-18 12:45pm EST--

Well fight enthusiasts, if I liked Anders +125 then needless to say that today I like Anders +165!

Not only is it challenging to make these breakdowns the Monday prior to the fight but as a dog player the published VSiN price often offers less gaming value than the price available on the day of the fight. That said, a deadline is a deadline and my basic fight breakdown rarely changes. Don't be afraid to wait a little before pulling the trigger of you do like Anders for you may find another dime of so of value by being patient!

At this point I do have a couple of other leans on this card but nothing I want to publish at this time. I’ll rely on @Twitter for any late mangy mutt musings so stay tuned in!

October 6, 2018 is UFC 229 Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor. Count on a few aggressive positions for that fight card.

GambLou.com

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