Welcome Horse enthusiasts to Gamblou.com’s coverage of the Triple Crown of Horse racing and the Breeder’s Cup Classic.
We introduce to you today Brutha Shue’s (@Drewshoo on twitter) new Pony partner in these dialogues one JimmyQ (@JimmyQVegas on twitter). Jimmy has been carrying me around the horse track for years doing nothing but pouring profit my way from the ponies and he teams up today with Shue to do their inaugural dialogue for Saturday’s Breeders Cup Classic. We start by Jimmy responding to Shue about the sport of Kings as a whole. Here’s their brief discussion then their suggested wagers….
Q: I agree that the Kentucky Derby is the best day of the racing year. I've had the pleasure of taking in 4 Derby's in person. I was able to witness victories by Smarty Jones in 2004 (Still to this day I wonder how did he not win the Triple Crown?) Giacomo in 2005, Barbaro in 2006, and Animal Kingdom in 2011. Now that I'm typing this I realize I need to get back there and have another Mint Julip!! As for trakus, the best way I can explain it is it's basically like having GPS on a horse so it's the most accurate information you will get anywhere. When you are watching the Churchill signal and you see the numbers at the bottom of the screen kind of floating along that's trakus equipment being used. It's inside the horse’s saddle cloth and measures their MPH at different segments of the race including their peak MPH and also how many total feet the horse traveled. I've been able to find a way to incorporate this information into my handicapping so that it works for me. The only bad news is the fact that not every track uses trakus as it is quite costly. I'll talk to you as we get closer to race day
Shue: Q - I'm almost half way through running my numbers for The Classic and I'm working on MUBTAAHIJ (12-1). He ran two races in Meydan, and I'm curious to know what his fractions were - if you have the Trakus numbers. And also in his race at Churchill Downs on Nov 25, 2016 - how fast did he run that last furlong. As of this writing, he sounds pretty interesting.
Q: Well Done Drew! You have about a 10 length lead on me in your preparation but I'll be taking a deep dive tonight and will also answer the very fair question you had around tracks without trakus and how I assign those horses a figure, etc. I'm excited for the Classic!! It should be a beauty and best of Luck on your wagers....Mine will be out by morning. Talk to you soon
Shue and Q drop more knowledge on the nags before each delivers their final positions.
Shue: OK so here's the way I see it. The class, and rightfully so, are ARROGATE (2-1) and GUN RUNNER (9-5). Not sure Gun Runner can make the 1 1/4 and be in front at the wire - and Arrogate is a professional at that distance - so no money to be made on them - unless they somehow falter - which IMHO, would leave us with MUBTAAHIJ (12-1) and WEST COAST (6-1). Those two can close very well at 1 1/8 of a mile - and I think they can both make the 1 1/4 and be on the lead at the wire. I'm going to throw in WIN THE SPACE (30-1) just for fun. He can sure close at 1 1/8 - and quite oddly, 'pulled up' in his last two 1 1/4 mile runs. Maybe the Greek trainer has been saving up for this day to finish first - so at 30-1, I'm going to put him in my box. So here's my action:
$5.00 W-P-S #3 Win the Space (30-1) $15.00
$10.00 W-P-S #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) $30.00
$10.00 W-P-S #8 West Coast (6-1) $30.00
$1.00 Trifecta Box (5 horses) $60.00
#1 Arrogate (2-1) #3 Win the Space (30-1) #5 Gun Runner (9-5) #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) #8 West Coast (6-1)
Total Wager $135.00
Q- Alright Shue. My homework is done and I'm making a BOLD move and I'm tossing Gun Runner out of the Top 3 for many of the reasons you brought up as I too have big time questions about how he'll hold up the final 1/8 of a mile. I think there will be others traveling much better at that point in the race that will out kick him down the stretch. This will allow me to get another horse with more value into a couple of my exotics. I'm a firm believer that when you have 2 short priced horses you need to take a stand somewhere even if you end up having your head between your legs afterwards. With that said, my Win $ is going to be on #8 WEST COAST (8-1) You have to love how this horse came into his own this summer and he just keeps getting better with each race. I'm hoping he takes that next big step forward in the Classic. If he doesn't get it done then I do think it's probably b/c #1 ARROGATE (2-1) returned to his old form and takes another Classic. I look for Mike Smith to be aggressive from the rail today and try to put him on the lead if he can get it. The last 2 races Arrogate has gotten a little lazy mid race and left himself with way too much to do in the lane. I know everyone is going to be watching anxiously to see how he handles this Del Mar surface. Also a good sign for Arrogate backers that he is 3 for 3 life time when breaking from the inside post. I'm throwing in a few double digit horse that I think might not be able to win but can certainly run 2nd or 3rd if things go their way. #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) with a win first time out for the Baffert barn and I could see him having an even greater feel for him this time and fully cranked. #9 Gunnevera (30-1) ran the best race of his life in the Travers and was very wide at the beginning of the race so ultimately ran much farther than his competition. If there is a fight up front today for the lead this is a horse that will benefit greatly. #10 Pavel (20-1) is lightly raced at this point in his career and is improving and I was impressed with his last out effort. A repeat effort could have him somewhere in the exotics. Here is how I'm betting it.
$50.00 Win 8
$20.00 Ex 8/1
$15.00 Ex 1/8
$3 Ex 1,8/6,9,10 $18.00
$1 Tri 1,8/1,6,8,9,10/1,6,8,9,10 $24.00
Total Investment $127.00
There it is Horse Enthusiasts. Two unique perspectives with affordable wagering tips on top. We'll be following our two Pro's advice closely and wish you all the best of luck this weekend at the races!
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