UFC FN Liverpool Thompson vs. Till "The Till is gone" - 5/26/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight night Liverpool, England. Below is my breakdown of the main event between Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Darren ‘the shill’ Till. I demean Till on purpose for fighters that speak shit about being the greatest then miss weight badly only confirm that they are unprofessional and unprepared to be a champion. Till’s missed weight and the organization needed this headliner to make their card in Liverpool profitable. So the result of Till missing is that he sports advantage in a fight in his home town in front of his fans and he enters with unfair advantage. This is a broken system that needs to be fixed as all six fighters who have missed badly in 2018 have gone on to win.

Losing a few percentage points of your pay to own unfair advantage in a fight is clearly an accepted ploy for cheaters and the UFC is burying their head in the sand regarding this tactic that more and more is becoming a plan and a practice.

The UFC MUST address this for it is enables cheaters to benefit at the expense of the professional well-prepared fighter.

It’s impossible to regard the UFC as a legitimate entity when they proclaim that the rules in place do not apply and can be manipulated for something as arbitrary as a ‘family emergency’.

Man does the UFC need some leadership and practice in ethics ….badly.

Here’s my breakdown of the main event published Wednesday May 23 on the VSiN networks publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’.

Published 5-23-18

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night from Liverpool, England. This week they fight on Sunday morning (in the USA) starting at 7:30am PST! The main event will go off about 11:30 am PST so we’ll wake up Sunday morning to left hooks and lattes. Here’s a look at the main event.

Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -115 vs. Darren ‘the Gorilla’ Till -105, 5 rounds Welterweight 170lbs

As discussed previously the UFC is working diligently on exporting their product around the globe and it’s off to England after a couple weeks in South America. As was the case last week, this slate is comprised of relatively obscure fighters and features an abundance of regional European talent. I use a fight card like this for due diligence purposes only obtaining fighter intel for future use in other MMA opportunities.

Sunday’s main event is going to be a competitive affair as we have two dynamic striking based fighters who with an impressive victory should insure themselves a shot at Welterweight champion Tyronn Woodley.

Darren Till is an abrasive, young, brash, English fighter who comes complete with size, power and bad intention. His October demolition of Donald Cerrone (a blown up Lightweight) made Till the talk of the division as the kid is a strong willed, forward pressing, aggressive fighter who talks a big game, at least thus far. Till’s career has spanned a mere five years so he’s still a bit green and in need of refinement. While he is powerful and determined he can also be reckless, wide/wild, and he’s quite one dimensional. He’s a front running fighter meaning he looks like a world beater in the first round but tends to exhaust himself as the fight wears past the first five minutes. Till’s confident in his ability to take the opponent out early and has compromised himself in past fights displaying that lack of experience by taking to frenetic a pace early. I see this as one of his major flaws.

His exuberance to engage in an immediate furious firestorm and his overly aggressive nature tends to completely drain Till later in fights transferring him from a powerful destroyer a lumbering, stationary statue. Those that have made it past the first round with him have all taxed Till and none of those fighters are of Thompson’s championship skill level. In 2015 against Nicholas Dalby Till was clearly ahead after two rounds only to be battered in the third round and settle for a draw. In his fight prior to the Cerrone devastation against a journeyman fighter in Velickovic he again slowed late in round two and earned a close decision. I did mention that his is a scheduled five round fight eh?

Till will be dangerous early in this fight but in my judgement he has many holes in his fight game. He’s a typical English striking based fighter in that he stands erect then as he expends abundant energy he slows substantially and drops his arms. Later in fights he lacks any quickness if he had any to begin with, his defense becomes lax if nonexistent and his erect stature makes him an easy target to hit. Till’s rarely had to fight from the floor nor has he been in the Octagon with an experienced, diverse, precision striking veteran like Thompson.

Stevie Thompson’s on the other hand happens to be a most polished and professional fighter who’s gone five rounds twice recently against current Welterweight Champion Woodley. He’s been in the Octagon with the best fighters of the division and has dominated. He’s beaten names like Hendricks, MacDonald and Masvidal as well took Woodley to a draw before losing their second five round Championship bout.

Thompson is a Kempo/kickboxing/Jujutsu artist who’s versed enough with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to be able to hold great advantage over Till on the mat should he decide to take him there which I believe may be a real possibility.  Anything Thompson can do to force the youthful Brit to expend energy is going to enable Thompson, a veteran of several five round fights to appropriate distance between he and Till then batter the Brit with a barrage of precision striking from arms, legs, knees and elbows once the youth tires and he will tire.

Thompson will employ steady movement to control distance and keep Till on the outside and force him to rush inside to engage the ever-moving fluid striking Thompson. Sunday morning you’ll see Thompson acting as a matador in the first round and Till the bull as he tries to overwhelm Thompson and gore him with early explosive engagement.

Thompson must not engage early with Till and allow the Englishman to start tossing those wide Sunday shots rather he needs to stick to the plan that will be evasiveness early. Thompson will want to batter in oncoming bull with strikes and employ a steady leg kick attack to slow the brash young brawler. Movement, fluid counterstriking and a constant leg attack will force Till to expend energy in an attempt to run down the cagier veteran and try to overwhelm him with his strength.

I view Darren Till as a dangerous prospect but I believe he has been pushed a bit to far too fast in this evolution to become a Champion. I believe this fight goes a long way in determining how long it will take the Englishman to learn the many other aspects of mixed martial arts other than pure youthful power. Till in there Sunday against a more polished precision-based fighter with experience and Championship mettle and for those reasons I view Thompson to be value priced.

Till’s going to earn his PhD. In MMA the hard way Sunday morning when he steps into the Octagon with a man who is more complete than he in every single aspect of MMA fighting save for brute strength and early power.

Thompson -120

Update 5-26-18

Till missed weight badly and is basically cheating to gain edge in this fight. He did this either out of stupidity because he's been flapping his jaws and eating flap jacks and/or because he knows he needs an angle for he's completely outclassed in this fight save for early power. I hate cheats. Till get's his degree in an arse whupping tomorrow. Don't miss this beat down.

If Till’s travesty was not bad enough now the other local Liverpoolian on the card Molly (more meatballs please) McMann missed weight by a couple pounds then after forty more minutes of cutting to take the last pound off stepped back on the scale at the same weight as when she missed. The local fighters are really spitting up all over themselves this morning. Anyway, McMann could barely walk upon her first miss and enters this fight against a fighter well prepared to make a statement, fresh and ready to fire. Robertson is a grappler/wrestler and is prepared to make a splash in the UFC. I believe this fight does hit the floor especially in lieu of the weigh-in results and once on the floor this is all Robertson.

Robertson +150

I'm monitoring another couple fights and will add via @Twitter tomorrow should the prices get where I need toehm to go. Good Luck to all and enjoy the fights...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

5-26-18 5am EST

Robertson +150

5-23-18 9:30am EST

Thompson -120


NHL Conference Championships: Campbell & Wales Passion - 5/20/2018

5-23-18 3:50pm EST

 Wales Conference Final: Lightning -145 vs. Capitals +125

Welcome to the Wales Conference’s game seven where tonight’s winner will receive the Prince of Wales Trophy and four days of rest before having to turn around and either host the Golden Knights (should the Lighting win) or travel to sin city (should the Capitals prevail) for The Stanley Cup Final game one. Here’s how I break down this game seven.

Netminders

Vasilevskiy 2.55 GAA  .920%          Holtby 2.16 GAA  .919%

By the numbers these two netminders are playing similarly outstanding playoff hockey as anything above .915 as a save percentage in the playoffs is outstanding. The Lightning turned to a younger more athletic Andei Vasilevskiy a few years ago for this reason and because of his youth, athleticism and durability. He’s responded by playing sound, fundamental hockey.

Holtby had an unusually poor regular season and actually started these playoffs on the pine watching backup netminder Grubauer drop two games to the Blue Jackets before Coach Trotz inserted Holtby back into the lineup. Holtby has been superb since gaining his starting position back but has had troublesome games against these Lightning. It’s clear after a closer look that the main reason for this has been a lack of sound, physical defense in front of the netminder as opposed to any futility on Holtby’s part. Holtby’s playing with a chip on his shoulder and a single-minded purpose which goes a long way in explaining his excellence this post season. It looks to me like he wants another shot at his old nemesis Marc-Andre Fleury.

Defense

Tampa has been playing bend but don’t break hockey in front of Vasilevskiy which often results in them sagging defensively in front of their cage and trying to protect their goaltender. I look for a change in attitude Wednesday when they face-off for Tampa’s at its best when it plays frenetic, furious offensive pressure hockey. Washington’s constant pressure is resulting in an obtuse imbalance of shots on goal and Tampa must address this as over relying on one’s netminder a second straight game may be risky even with a stone wall like Vasilevskiy in net.

Washington’s defense is veteran laden and has insulated Holtby effectively for they allowed 31.9 shots against in the regular season while compressing that number down in these playoffs to 28 shots per game. Washington’s defense is keenly aware of the Lighting speed, skill and prowess. They realize that they must play with extreme discipline, block passing and shooting lanes and keep the front of the net clear for Holtby as they did in game six to have a chance to travel to Vegas for game one Monday.

Offense

The Lighting offense is skilled, quick and plays precision hockey but they’re at their best when playing from the lead which allows them to skate freely to utilize their natural abilities and improvision. Scoring the first goal in this game is key to Tampa being able to press into the Capitals offensive zone, control the puck and pressure Holtby. Tampa has offensive superstars laced throughout their roster so allowing this team room to skate is something the Capitals cannot allow.

The Capitals are a physical, grinding, attacking offense with underestimated speed and quickness and physicality. They’ve utilized a dominating front check to gain access into the opponent’s offensive zone and attack the net which has proven to be most successful. This is surely their aim tonight. The Caps are strong, skilled and are dominating on offense as they’ve already shown in this series. The physical toll they’ve been administering to the Lighting this series as well game six (39 hits to 18) may well manifest itself into advantage come this game seven. I believe the effect of Washington’s unrelenting physical, and frenetic pace of offensive play is taking a physical and emotional toll on Tampa Bay. Tampa did not want this series to go seven games evidenced by listening to Coach Cooper after the game.

Special Teams

This time of year, coaches study diligently to diagnose minor flaws in opponents which they may expose to create advantage. It’s been said, “Playoff hockey uncovers a team’s areas of weakness”, and I believe this.

Washington needs to address face-offs for they are below a 50%-win rate. Face-offs mean possession and possession means offensive pressure. They must also stay disciplined for Tampa’s power play is successful 29% of the time. Tampa was 0-2 on the power play in Monday’s game six loss, if they had gone 1-1 who knows what the story would be today?

Tampa Bay must reduce the shots they are allowing on Vasilevskiy. Allowing the Capitals to control time and space in their own zone is putting immeasurable pressure on Vasilevskiy. Also, the Lighting must stay out of the penalty box as their penalty kill is a meager 74% (Washington kills penalties at an 83% clip for reference sake) and offensively Washington has the most potent power play numbers in the playoffs at 29.8%. Edge Capitals.

Coaching

I won’t try to compare the capability of these two outstanding coaches. Veteran Head Coach Barry Trotz has been the recipient of unfair criticism in my estimation and what he’s done this year with a team most overlooked is nothing short of incredible.

Jon Cooper since arriving in Tampa Bay has only delivered the Lightning to the playoffs for four of the six years he has been there. These two coaches are both deserving of moving forward, it’s a shame one will have to go home.

Intangibles

Both of these organizations, coaches, players and support staffs are thirsting and desperate to realize their lifelong dream of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup.

I do feel (and this is quite intangible stuff) that the Capitals, their fans and especially one Alex Ovechkin have experienced obtuse setback, frustration and heartache these last ten years. The many under achievements realized by the Capitals this last decade will work to manifest itself in one of two ways; either they rise up and finally overcome years of disappointment (not a strong enough word) with a victory tonight or they will yet again fall short of their goals and return home with more questions than answers.

Sports are filled with stories of how deep belief in one’s skills and an unwavering will to realize one’s dreams eventually manifest itself with the crowning achievement.  It’s my belief that the Capitals, motivated by their own past will come together tonight and earn their way into the Stanley Cup Finals.

Ray Bourke in hockey and John Elway come to mind as superstars who finally achieved their dream after a long career of setback and disappointment as potential metaphors for Alex Ovechkin. Washington has proved that they are deserving, now they must go out and earn their way to Sin City where a well-rested hockey club and a city of transients bonded together for one purpose await them.

This Stanley Cup journey is only three quarters of the way through after tonight. Enjoy the pure passion.

Washington +130

current pricing accceptable but we'll wait as the parlay playing pundits won't come in to hit Lighting until late...

5-21-18 7:40pm EST

Capitals -120

This one goes seven. Ovechkin and team won't fold and quit as Winnipeg did. There's more Hockey to be played in the Wales

5-20-18 2:18pm EST

I posted the photo above because I believe this series takes a bit of a turn here today. I look for the Jets to begin to make this passion play well more physical. I see them trying to inflict physical toll on Fleury first, then the rest of the Knight team overall. I've noticed glimpses of the Jets cracking. Lack of focus, netminder mistakes at critical times and overall inability to keep up with the faster, quicker, rested team is infuriating these Canadians. Their Head Coach has displayed temper on several occasions publicly so what the hail do you think he's doing behind closed doors?  The young but not intelligent netminder is talking out and not playing steel trap puck and the team is clearly frustrated by their lack of ability to skate with the Knights.

I look for the Knights to finish this series off today but that is more my wish not my wager as the best way to silence a bully is to whup them in front of they own people. The Jets are gripping and that's not the recipe for success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We have an insured one plus unit of profit waiting for us when this series ends so I'm taking the easy route and watching today. I'll be back tomorrow in a critical Wales game sure to test the Capitals mettle.

5-19-19 9:25am EST

Golden Knights have been the sole home team exfelling in these playoffs. They refuse to lose when they host on the strip. I'm so pleased for the community of Las Vegas that they finally received a pro sports team which now adds tot he dimension and diversity not to mention civic pride of a great desert community.  

There remains profit to be made so like these teams let's remain focused but maybe ratchet up the intensity a bit and get to work as we strive to improve each day in every way. 

5-18-18 7:30pm EST

Jets +105 L

5-18-18 9:30am EST

Road dogs, pups, pooches, mongrels, mutts, canine's and hounds. get the picture? More later today puckheads....

5-16-18 8:20pm EST

Jets +125 W

5-16-18 1:45pm EST

Today we rake a little profit. Jets Series is -105. We'll use the open end of the Jets -140 parlay and tie it to Jets -105 series for return +234. It sets up the opportunity to watch this series knowing there's a one plus unit net profit at the end of the series (we own Vegas +210 series currently). Meanwhile stay tuned until drop of puck because we may not be done.

Playoff hockey is the best eh?

5-16-18 10:15am EST

These last couple rounds have been well more enjoyable than the first round eh? It's a marathon not a sprint and we still have plenty of work to do. We're going to have an interesting move planned for today puckheads. I'll be at the Diamondback game then will post sometime prior to the drop of frozen rubber....

5-15-18 7:17pm EST

Lightning +113 W

5-14-18 5:55pm EST

Golden Knights +210 series (Pending see above)

5-13-18 5:15pm EST

Capitals +170 W

5-3-18 1:50pm EST

Game two's start tonight.

We'll have opinions as well we have the open parlay Winnipeg -140/Open working.  We'll circle back to it sooner or later.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN Maia vs. Usman: Choked out in Chile - 5/19/2018

5-19-18 10:35pm EST

Making Cannonier a full unit wager

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight Night from Santiago Chile. Below is the column I submitted this week for Point Spread Weekly which can be accessed via VSiN.com. Following that main event breakdown is an update that includes my other releases for the UFC.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

 

(originally published 5-15-18 Point Spread Weekly)

Kamara Usman -400 vs. Damian Maia +325 Main Event (Welterweight 170lbs.)

This week’s UFC card remains in South America with a trip to Santiago, Chile for Fight Night 129. Kamara Usman is a rising star in the UFC. He faces Damian Maia who’s recognized as a World Class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master and one of the most feared submission specialists in MMA.

Rather than a stand-up brawl and toe to toe affair Maia must find a way to fight at his strength which is on the floor. Usman however is an NCAA Division II Championship wrestler who’ll sport outstanding take down defense which sets up the cat and mouse for this fight. I learned long ago that kryptonite to World Class BJJ specialists is a wrestling-based fighter with a well-rounded fight arsenal.

Wrestling prowess provides a fighter with the needed leverage, floor ability and hand control to not only compete with BJJ artists but at times dominate them. Conditioning and toughness are also innate advantages for wrestlers as they know little other than grinding, grappling and groping for hours daily.

To complete their MMA fighting arsenal wrestlers need to develop precision striking ability which is something they often lack. They also must learn how to take a straight power punch to the point of the jaw which never happens in their competitions. This takes time as it is not natural or easy to learn then employ.  However, once a wrestling-based fighter arms themselves with fluidity about their stand-up game (both offensively and defensively) and an ability to take punches then the ascent to world Champion will soon follow.

I’ve just provided you with a portrait of Kamara Usman.  Usman is all of the above with an abundance of bad intention laced throughout. While no spring chicken he is fresh into the sport as a thirty-one-year-old who’s been fighting professionally since 2012. He’ll have a ten-year age advantage on Maia (forty) who’s only real angle in this fight is to catch Usman in a mistake and try to submit him early. I’ve not seen Usman eat a huge power punch and (like most wrestlers) the jury is out on his ability to take a Sunday shot but Damian Maia is not the fighter that’s going to test Usman with any form of stand-up threat Saturday night.

Maia took this fight on short notice and off a one-sided decision loss to another complete wrestling-based fighter in Colby Covington, so he feels prepared for what he’s going to face. Maia’s edge over Usman is his guile and fighting savvy and he’ll need to all of it to bait Usman into a mistake as this is the only way I see Maia getting his hand raised. He takes this fight with the ambition of surprising the division and earning himself a last gasp Championship opportunity but in my judgement he is overmatched in every aspect of this competition save for his vast fighting experience.

-Update 5-19-15-

Currently the pricing on Usman is reaching foolish levels for Maia is capable to capitalizing on an Usman mistake should he slip and make one. We’ll allow the parlay playing pukes to continue to push this and report closer to opening bell via @Twitter if this number meets the necessary prerequisites to consider a nominal position on Maia…

Cummings -170 vs. Prazeres +150

This is ‘The big payback’ for Prazeres who in previous fights at 155lbs (Lightweight) blatantly cheated by grossly missing weight in order to win the fight as well is telling us by those repeated attempts to compete at 155 that at 170 he is undersized and many times overmatched. In steps Cummings who is younger, taller, longer than the Brazilian but also has a complete wrestling arsenal capable of keeping this up with take down D or thriving on the mat should it go there. Prazeres is a pip and he gets his ‘big payback’ today.

No play because I missed earlier value on Cummings damnit

Benitez -180 vs. Bandenay +160

Benitez from Mexico is the more polished precision striking fighter who can be tested on the mat. His opponent from Peru is the younger, longer, larger fighter and is a deadly striking based fighter who will probably not choose to make this a maul on the mat. Rather this fight will be decided by who controls the distance to their expertise. Benitez needs to work inside and Bandenay will want to maintain space in order to deliver lethal and powerful kicks and strikes. This fight opened up about a pick-em which was off as Benitez should be a chalk. That said, Benitez -195 is too high in my judgement. Value play here

Bandenay +160

Pantoja -115 vs. Moreno +105

I’m surprised Pantoja is chalk here. He did win their first fight as this IS a rematch, but I believe Moreno’s overall fight growth and development since their first match is more substantial and I like the revenge factor. Moreno who by the way opened -170, is longer, taller, more athletic and has reach so he does qualify for mangy mutt status.

Moreno +105

Luque -195 vs. LaPrise +180

Luque will have family in attendance. He’s younger, more powerful and explosive. LaPrise is the more technical striker here and will need to weather the early typhoon that will be Luque on the lurch. LaPrise needs to get to round two where he will be able to control space with his precision striking and force the monster Luque deep into this fight where he has shown a tendency to tire and slow. It’s a marathon not a sprint eh?

LaPrise +180 

Reyes -220 vs. Cannonier +200

Reyes is tall, long, young and incredibly one dimensional. Cannonier is the much smaller man but in past Heavyweight and LHW fights he’s displayed an ability to compete being the much smaller man. I watch Cannonier train and I can tell you all that if he makes it into the second round his speed, explosion and cardio will expose this tall one dimensional yet powerful striker in Reyes.

Cannonier +200 (half)

Suarez -750 vs. Grasso +650

This line is way off based on Suarez’s one dimensional (but lethal) wrestling and Grasso’s striking and edge in experience. Show me.

Grasso +650

lunch money wager

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NHL Conference Championships - 5/13/2018

5-19-19 9:25am EST

Golden Knights have been the sole home team exfelling in these playoffs. They refuse to lose when they host on the strip. I'm so pleased for the community of Las Vegas that they finally received a pro sports team which now adds tot he dimension and diversity not to mention civic pride of a great desert community.  

There remains profit to be made so like these teams let's remain focused but maybe ratchet up the intensity a bit and get to work as we strive to improve each day in every way. 

5-18-18 7:30pm EST

Jets +105 L

5-18-18 9:30am EST

Road dogs, pups, pooches, mongrels, mutts, canine's and hounds. get the picture? More later today puckheads....

5-16-18 8:20pm EST

Jets +125 W

5-16-18 1:45pm EST

Today we rake a little profit. Jets Series is -105. We'll use the open end of the Jets -140 parlay and tie it to Jets -105 series for return +234. It sets up the opportunity to watch this series knowing there's a one plus unit net profit at the end of the series (we own Vegas +210 series currently). Meanwhile stay tuned until drop of puck because we may not be done.

Playoff hockey is the best eh?

5-16-18 10:15am EST

These last couple rounds have been well more enjoyable than the first round eh? It's a marathon not a sprint and we still have plenty of work to do. We're going to have an interesting move planned for today puckheads. I'll be at the Diamondback game then will post sometime prior to the drop of frozen rubber....

5-15-18 7:17pm EST

Lightning +113 W

5-14-18 5:55pm EST

Golden Knights +210 series (Pending see above)

5-13-18 5:15pm EST

Capitals +170 W

5-3-18 1:50pm EST

Game two's start tonight.

We'll have opinions as well we have the open parlay Winnipeg -140/Open working.  We'll circle back to it sooner or later.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 224 Nunes vs. Pennington:Rio Naked Choke - 5/12/2018

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to UFC 224. Below is my article which appears weekly on Point Spread weekly via the VSIN Network. Its subscription based but well worth the investment if you are serious about the profession of Profitable Sports Gaming. After the PSW piece I do have a couple later additions. Good Luck and enjoy the fights

Published 5-9-18

UFC 224 takes us Saturday to the birthplace of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rio de Janeiro Brazil. I’ve mentioned previously that fight cards conducted outside of the United States often provide regional fighters with favorable match-ups designed to contribute to the exportation of the UFC in that region. The UFC is comprised of a relatively young demographic so local fighters having success in Brazil, Bangkok or Berlin seeds regional growth and is in the best interest of the organization.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Amanda Nunes -650 vs. Rachel Pennington +480 

Speaking of local flavor here is Exhibit A. This fight is a set-up fight intended to spike interest/hype in Amanda Nunes for a super fight is on the horizon if she can beat Raquel Pennington. With a victory Saturday Nunes will be in position to then move on to fight the most dominant female fighter in MMA, Chris Cyborg. 

Nunes will be the larger lady in the Octagon. She’ll hold a striking advantage, a strength advantage and is capable of controlling Pennington on the mat. This is a substantial step up for Pennington who’s been inactive due to injury since September of 2017. Pennington could shock the MMA world but it’s highly unlikely as the odds suggest. We’ll revisit Nunes when she does in fact step into the Octagon with Cyborg in a few months. Nunes should finish Pennington in this fight.

‘Jacare’ Souza -150 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +130 

Here’s the ‘styles make fights’ match-up though there are a handful of other wrestler/grappler vs. striker fights on this card that offer great value.

Souza is the number two ranked Middleweight. He’s a world class BJJ savant who’s dominant on the mat and over the fifteen years he’s fought at the professional level he’s lost only five times (one NC). Conducting this fight from the floor is mandatory for Souza as it will allow him maximum advantage. Souza, the larger man in the Octagon Saturday will want to measure himself against Gastelum on his way inside to clasp the smaller man and drag him down to the dirt. Souza is twelve years the older fighter which provides him an edge in experience but understand that there is wear on that body after years of war and attrition which (some of) his recent fights have displayed. Souza’s goal will be to limit his stand-up time against Gastelum and grope him as it will allow him to more efficiently employ the guile and stealth of his dynamic Jiu-Jitsu while allowing him to regulate energy output. Souza does not want this to be a stand-up affair.

Gastelum is a wrestling-based fighter with developed boxing ability. He’ll be the more explosive, quicker, precision striker who’ll use footwork to control space and employ take down defense to keep this fight upright where he can force Souza to fight out of his comfort zone. Gastelum must use movement to control distance on the Brazilian and pepper him with precision shots when Souza attempts to work his way inside to clasp. Where this fight takes place will go a long way in determining the outcome. Gastelum must be active early and force this fight on the Brazilian. It’s important for Gastelum to guide this fight into the second round where his stamina, speed and explosion will become more apparent and Souza’s chin more exposed. Souza has been touched recently and if this fight remains on the feet he will get touched again.

Gastelum opened -105 and is now +130. Patience will provide more value as we near the opening bell for the chalk chasers are sure to move on the Brazilian as we near opening bell.

Gastelum +130

I have a couple live dogs for this card. Here’s one I’ll release now because the price may contract as we near the bell for round 1.

Mackenzie Dern -220 vs. Amanda Cooper +200

Dern is the super talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist from Arizona whose father (Wellington Dias) is as highly decorated a BJJ/Judo artist as there is. Dern’s been a BJJ savant since childhood which may be both good and bad. It’s good because she’s clearly gifted and naturally talented but maybe too much so. Talent needs work ethic to blossom fully and it’s questionable how much time she devotes to developing the other important fighting skills it takes to be a complete martial artist. To say Dern is one dimensional is an understatement but to say she is supremely gifted in BJJ is also understated. Dern needs this fight on the floor which will allow her to show her Countrymen that she is a new ambassador for the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but will she be able to get the fight down to the mat? This will be the key to this outcome.

Amanda Cooper is a boxing-based fighter who’s been alternating wins and losses as she seems to be able to control stand up fights, yet she struggles with ground fighters. Cooper enters this fight knowing that this is a career opportunity and she’s trained appropriately for it. Cooper will need to use strikes to keep the oncoming Dern away from her and punish her in the process.  Cooper is keenly aware of the single dimensional dominance of Dern. It will be interesting to see how she utilizes movement, striking and cardio to maintain distance to damage Dern.

Dern’s a fighter that when the light shine’s she shows up to compete but she has questionable training habits. Cooper’s been training for this opportunity and based on the interviews I have seen from her (as well the time I’ve spent in Dern’s former gym) I feel Cooper will be able to keep this fight upright and be very competitive as a +225 underdog.

Cooper +225

5-12-18

Zaleski dos Santos -110 vs. Strickland +100

ZDS looked great in his last but he’s nowhere near as refined a fighter as is Strickland who’s only been bested by top guys in the division. Tough draw for the Brazilian here and value on the longer, younger more well-rounded fighter in my judgement. Strickland needs to work that jab on his way to octagon control.

Strickland +100

Ramos -150 vs. Hein +140

Davi Ramos looks the part and is a world class grappling based fighter who can strike with power but he can be wide and lunging as opposed to straight and precise. Hein is short, squat, experienced and comes to fight. He’s got a low sturdy Judo based attack and his wrestling and will are used to wear opponents down. I believe that’s exactly what’s going to occur here. Let’s pull Hein into the second round where his will and pace will wear the Brazilian down.

Hein +140

Roberson -110 vs. Ferreira +100

Ferriera has a papier-mache’ chin which is alarming against a world class kickboxing/striking based fighter. That said I do not believe Roberson who’s making his first trip out of the US as well his second fight in the UFC is aware of the reception he will get in Rio. I also believe Ferreira large enough and cagey enough to clasp on to the smaller man, drag him to the floor for a flopping fine time. We spoke of this fight with Gabriel Morency on the radio this week when ‘el Mutante’ was +135 or +140. I still like him at even money.

Ferreira +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Conference Finals: Prince of Wales Trophy & Campbell Bowl - 5/11/2018

5-11-18  7:29pm EST

Lighting -185 vs. Capitals +165 Series

It was my opinion that the Bruins were sluggish, old and tired in the end of the Leaf series and my zeal to back the Bolts (against the Bruins) was based on what I saw as a fading team in the Bruins and a rapidly ascending team in the Lighting.

It is my opinion that the Capitals are a focused, faster fresher team than were the Bruins and potentially still ascending themselves (I’ll need a couple games to decide that). I also feel that Washington has faced the more formidable competition entering this series especially so if you handicap goaltending.

Tampa must maintain its composure in order not to get bushwhacked here. They must play this series at full strength to leverage their considerable edge in experience, talent and depth. If they do they can control the pace and try to rattle Washington’s world class goaltender Braden Holtby who appears to be playing the best hockey of his career.

Remember puckheads that a hot goalie can single handedly steal a series by themselves so Holtby’s form must be respected. This kid’s playing with a chip on his shoulder the size of Gibraltar. Washington’s Power play is most potent and Tampa’s penalty kill is unacceptably low at 74.2% so the repercussions of sloppy play from the Lighting will cost them dearly.

Tampa steps up in competition from previous rounds.  I say that not to sling at Boston but to display that the spreads in this series are adversely affected by what Tampa did to Boston. In my judgement Tampa should have been at least +185/-190 vs Boston and against Washington I handicap them no higher than a price of -155.

By my numbers I handicap the netminders dead even but give Tampa edges in experience, defensive aptitude and faceoff’s won. Both teams have great coaches and organizations, but this is Tampa’s third conference final in the last four years, so this team knows what to do once it arrives in this spotlight.

Washington’s team is grizzled, hardened and confident after defeating the Pens but what mental condition will they tote to game one? I feel they must find a way keep the puck out of their own zone and press their own offense into the Lighting zone if they are to realize success. Washington can’t allow Tampa to press the pace and play in Washington’s end as this series could be short if that occurs. Washington MUST have its superstars shine and they as a team must knock Tampa into distraction, sloppy play and penalties or they may be overwhelmed the longer this series extends.

I feel much stronger about the Campbell Conference Championship and will pass on any releases in this Wales Conference Championship series until I can watch game one. We’re half way through the playoff campaign and there is work to be done. One does not need to wager on every game, one needs to wager when there is an advantage. I’ll exercise a little patience in this Wales Final and watch game one admitting that I have no idea of how the Caps will respond to such a monumental accomplishment. But I’ll have feelings about the following games in this series folks!

Due Diligence, Selectivity and Money Management are the fulcrums to …

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

5-11-18 11:25am EST

It took me two full rounds to figure out the errors in our accounting program. We're now corrected and the 'Profitability' tab for 2018 Hockey is now fully functioning and showing correct results to date. 

After two rounds We have good and bad news. The bad news is we are fully spent on Future positions which is disappointing. Good news is that those losses have been recorded and there remains two rounds of passionate profit we may derive from these Playoffs. There's mucho work to do and we'll be producing more bottom line daily. Stay with me and please understand that I may be posting releases anytime up until the drop of the puck (knowing that I need to give you all time to get the position wagered).

Through two rounds: 21-29   42%    +1.6u    3.33% ROI

These numbers are thin yes, but we're profitable after having a devastatingly poor first round and Futures campaign. Round II was very successful however so we carry no Futures wagers but mucho momentum into these Conference Championship rounds. 

Tonight, Bolts and Caps....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Predators vs. Jets game 7: Ultimate Passion - 5/10/2018

Welcome to game 7 in the semi-final round in the Campbell Conference. Hatred, passion and intensity heighten each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and that will be on display tonight in Nashville when the Predators host the upstart Jets.

We have Future positons working on the Predators to win the Conference (+275 in an open ended parlay or a +350 ticket depending on when you puked on the Preds) and the Cup (+700 for 2 units) so tonight’s game is most important.

No positions tonight, We'll work to get those Predators into the Conference Final. Go Predators!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Game 6 Passion: Caps/Pens & Preds/Jets - 5/7/2018

5-7-9:40pm EST

Jets -150

1u 2 team /Open parlay

Das Capitals +175

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Kentucky Derby: 2 Horse Pro's haggle - 5/4/2018

Welcome to the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby. Each year I gather two professional pony prognosticators to break down the derby in dialogue form. These prognosticators are not just horse happy handicappers but dedicated Nag enthusiasts that have history and result behind them.

Brutha Shue, a professional horse handicapper from New Orleans exposes us to his metric based nag analysis and decades of experience chasing thoroughbreds to the winners circle. Joining Shue this year (and hopefully for years to come)  is another professional horse savant JimmyQ. I’ve been tailing these two horse handicappers for years and ca say that there is no reason for me to ever handicap a horse race as long as I have these two advising me.

As usual I put these two to task and invite each to provide their take on how to profit off of these Thoroughbred ponies in this Triple Crown of racing.  First up the Kentucky Derby.

The discussion begins as always with Brutha Shue e mailing Past Performance data to JimmyQ.

JimmyQ- Happy Derby Week Shoe! I have ridden the likes of Audible from the Holy Bull to the Florida Derby and will do the same thru the Kentucky Derby.  This horse transformed into a champion between last December and February.  I don't think we've seen the best of him yet and he could be set to peak this Saturday evening at 6:34 EST. Plain and Simple, if he wins I will clean up.  A positive sign that Javier Castellano and his agent have decided he will ride Audible.  Bad news is Javier has never won this race. With that said, I'm confident he is ready to change that.  What do you make of the Dubai shipper?

Shue- Overseas shippers have never won the Derby.  And we can never get any fractions or calls from the overseas tracks.  However, "Tracks" can and does if that particular track is a member.  Folks have been really cooing over this Mendelssohn entry - he did run one race here winning the BC Juvenile Turf.

(Shue sends Q more pony poop in the form of charts and forms)

JimmyQ- Hey Shue The Trakus chart for his race was impressive but with that said there is still a lot of preparation to be done before deciding if he loved that Medan surface or if he truly is a ball breaker.  It was great to see after the post-position draw that none of the big contenders were compromised based on the post they drew.  I'm going to spend the next couple of days combing thru the PP's, watching replays, and looking at the Trakus numbers.  What does your game plan look like so that one or both of us can hit it big come Saturday?

Shue- Well Q, I just got done throwing up after seeing that 4 of my 6 horses are in the auxiliary gate.  Need the PP's to finalize my wagers, but am absolutely sick about the draw for my nags.  At the moment, AUDIBLE (8-1) still my top pick, followed by MAGNUM MOON (6-1) and VINO ROSSO (12-1).  Next tier is NOBLE INDY (30-1), MY BOY JACK (30-1) then SOLOMINI (30-1).  Lots of value here.  Noble Indy, who I've really takin' a shine to lately - gets hosed in the #19 hole.  And because he likes to be on the lead, he'll have to spend lots of energy to cross some really, really fast horses out of the gate.  Crap!!!  And leaving MENDELLSSHON (5-1) off my board.  Those overseas shippers never hit - and still going with that that trend.  But by far, far and away - he is the most handsome of the bunch.  Does that pay?

After short congratulations to Jimmy@ on the borth of his new daughter just this week we get back to the actual releases from each man. I want to personally thank each horse pro and tip my hat to Q who provided us this great insight during a most important family week. Thanks Q and Shue.

Shue-OK boys, here's my thinking.  AUDIBLE (8-1) is still my guy.  Not interested in JUSTIFY (3-1) at all.  Yeah, he looks pretty and all - but I just think he's too lightly raced and he's gonna get out muscled somewhere along the way.  If he wins, he'll have to go gate to wire to do it - otherwise he'll be in traffic and won't be able to handle the congestion IMHO.  VINO ROSSO (12-1) another one I like.  Battle tested and a gamer I believe - like him.  MAGNUM MOON (6-1) another solid play.  He ran the fastest closing furlong of all of the entrants - 12 seconds flat!  Boys, that is buzzing along!  He'll be on the lead as well along with Justify, MENDELLSSHON (5-1) and PROMISES FULFILLED (30-1).  SOLOMINI (30-1) is another game horse.  Is always, always there - guts it out every time.  I've taken my 'across the board' off of NOBLE INDY (30-1) simply because I think he'll expend too much effort coming from the 19 post to be on the lead, and that he won't be able to stay up with the leaders coming down the stretch.  I really think this is the deepest Derby field in years.  Lots of quality and would not surprise me one bit if a 30-1 shot won - like MY BOY JACK (30-1).  He’s a deep, deep closer who could very well get there if the pace is 22ish.  Desormeaux just needs to wait a lil bit longer before he pushes the button.  And at 30-1, the price is right!  Here's my action:

$10 W-P-S #5 Audible (8-1)                    $30.00

$10 W-P-S #10 My Boy Jack (30-1)         $30.00

$10 W-P-S #17 Solomini (30-1)                $30.00

$10 W-P-S #18 Vino Rosso (12-1)           $30.00

 $2 Exacta BOX (5 horses)                        $40.00

5 Audible 10 My Boy Jack 16 Magnum Moon 17 Solomini 18 Vino Rosso

$1 Trifecta BOX (5 horses)                       $60.00

5 Audible 10 My Boy Jack 16 Magnum Moon 17 Solomini 18 Vino Rosso

  Total Invested                                           $220.00

JimmyQ- Great stuff Drew & Best of Luck with your selections.  As I type this, I'm holding my new baby girl in one arm and navigating the keyboard with the other.  Life is a little more complicated these days but in an exciting & fantastic way.  On to my selections, and we do have one big thing in common and that is the fact that many of our wagers are going thru AUDIBLE (8-1).  He too is my Top Pick and I'm very open about the fact that if he wins Kentucky Derby 144, I will clean up.  He has been very impressive and seems to be getting bigger and stronger with each race.  Others that I like that I'll be pairing him with are JUSTIFY (3-1).  He has the looks of another Bob Baffert monster and if he does win this race we can still make some money on this one.  VINO ROSSO (12-1)-  Impressive win in the Wood Memorial and another good one from the Todd Pletcher Barn.  HOFBURG (20-1)- Ran a very respectable second in the Florida Derby.  Lightly raced horse that could continue to be on the improve.  FREE DROP BILLY (30-1) -  If the track is wet come race time I'll be throwing him in underneath as I think he likes an off track and have to hope that 2 hole doesn't get him in a ton of early trouble.  This should be an incredible race with such an impressive group of contenders and in the end let's hope they are crowning AUDIBLE the 2018 Kentucky Derby Champion!

$10 W- $20 P- $40 S  #5  Audible (8-1)

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #7 Justify

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #18 Vino Rosso

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/  #9  Hofburg

$5   Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #2  Free Drop Billy

Total Wager  $140.00

 

May 5th is the 144th Kentucky Derby and I know I’ll be using both the #5 Audible (because these two advise it) as well #18 Vino Rosso for many reasons. Good Luck to all and cash those tickets

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs B's/Bolts & Sharks/Knights - 4/28/2018

5-3-18 8:12pm EST

Preds +130 W

5-2-18 6:31pm EST

I believe the ascending team is the Bolts

Lighting +140 W

check back for later game release if any

5-1-18 6:37pm EST

We had two games go as hoped for last evening with the Bolts shaking off rust to return to solid team hockey and the Golden Knights showing the hockey world that they are to be considered when thinking of whom may hoist come June. Series wagers made yesterday on Las Vegas and Tampa Bay now provide market advantage and while there’s hockey to play those tickets are working.

We’re back to the daily grind this evening. I’m late every day posting these positions because the chalk chasers wait until the last minute to fire and I want every penny of potential value I can get on these ugly mangy mutts. Good Luck tonight puck Enthusiasts….

Caps +155 W

Preds +130 L

Road scum

4-30-18 6:24pm EST

Lighting vs. Bruins

I believe the Tampa Bay Lighting to be the better, more complete team in this series than Boston which is why I took a 2.1unit position on them -140 when the series began. The -140 price seemed (and still seems) unusually low to my handicapping of this series so I moved at that time because I did not want to miss that series value had the Bolts won game one.

I also made it clear that because of the lengthy rest for the Bolts after their series with the Devils that the Bruins were live in game one which added +1.5u to the bottom line thank you. This was more a fade of Tampa in that first game than a testimonial to the Bruins.

Tonight, we put our money where our mouth is as we’ll ADD another unit of play on the Bolts for the series +165 which makes our total investment in the Lightning for the series 3.1* units invested for a return of 3.15 units so roughly +101 for the series. If we liked the Bolts -140 then we surely like them +101 even though they’re down in the series 0-1. There’s oh so much more hockey to play in this series puckheads…..trust me, fade me or curse me but this series is not what it seems right now. (*tracked in the Futures page)

Lighting +165 Series

Sharks vs. Golden Knights

If we could have broadcast the Knights -120 prior their game 1 route of the Sharks all puckheads near and far would have called us wise.

I’ll take .50 unit on the Knights -120 now. If the Knights win tonight’s game then I have a great price on them and they’ll have earned back home ice advantage. If the Sharks win tonight’s contest I’ll add another half unit series wager on the Knights prior to game four at even greater pricing which will give me a full unit of investment on them at a plus money price!!

I believe Vegas is a solid hockey club.

Knights -120 Series (half)

 

Sunday Passion

Pens +125

Jets +155

(but wait as these road mutts gain value as we near the drop of frozen rubber)

Puck Passion Round II

The second round is beginning more to expectation as we stand 2-1 +1.6u thus far but it's early.

Before I dish dregs, here’s a few insights:

Most important is Playoff goaltending. As far as I’m concerned Murray, Hellebyck and Fleury are the top three Minders at this point in Round II. Next are my somewhat undecided views on Jones and Holtby. I’ll watch them another game or so before committing to a semi-permanent playoff view on them. Finally, is the red alert category which falls to Rinne and Rask. I believe Rinne and Rask are showing some sign of age, skill erosion and tightness. Rinne’s history is to over perform in the regular season only to putter out in the playoffs. Rask has had a great career but he could completely buckle under the pressure the Bolts are going to bring.

The Preds don’t seem physical enough for the Jets nor fast enough for the Knights and unless Rinne goes from decent to dominant there’s reason to believe my other Future investment has work to do. Good thing is that there’s still plenty of puck to play.

The Knights (and me) have every reason to believe that they have ALL it takes to Hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup provided Fleury holds up. I’ve had reservations on Fleury’s ability to navigate a whole playoff run on his own for years. He’s been solid this year but I’ll need another series or two before I’m able to overcome that suspicion. That said, I see no chink in that armour….

I don’t like to contradict wagers on opposing sides (open Bruin parlay and 2.1u wager Lighting Series) unless it warranted. In this case I handicap the Bolts closer to a -185 chalk against these B’s and therefore the move was made. In other instances, a change of circumstances like injury, missed weight or unforeseen occurrence may warrant a reaction. In this case I feel the Bolts will display more depth and will control the series against the Bruins in all but game one. If the Bolts go down 0-1 count on another unit of series investment on them at increased odds. We’ll see.

I don’t count out the Capitals yet as this may seem the same old Caps but I need to see a couple more game before I waver on Washington…we may not be done here either.

Puck Passion and the greatest Tournament in sport.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Rd. 2: Eight Skate - 4/26/2018

4-27-18 6:28pm EST

Jets +145 W

4-26-18 6:15pm EST

Penguins +115 W

Sharks +130 L

In each of this evening's contests I feel the home team wins the series but is ripe for tonight. I'll invest in the road mutt and trust they can swipe the first one which will enhance the series odds in favor of the deeper better team. I forsee a similar move tomorrow. 

Series Release

 Lighting -140

2.1u  to win 1.5u

I'm taking this now and may add to it later but the price is aggressively low so I want to insure it.

This and other series wagers will be moved to the Futures page* found by accessing the Hockey tab at the top of this page.

 

Round I results were disappointing at 8-14 -6.6 u.

No NHL Playoff season goes the same except to say that I manage to end up on a profitable note and thatis the plan for 2018. Currently all the Futures that ost have been graded as such but also the working Future wagers are graded as losers until which time they mature when it then records as profit ot loss so look to each slate page for updated results. I'll have a few other Series wagers that will be released in this section but actually recorded in the Futures page as Round I series releases are located there also. 

I'll have daily releases posted at least 10-15 minutes prior to Puck drop so check in. It's important to allow the home team chalk chasers to add value to our positions....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Playoff Passion: Bruins vs. Leafs Game 7 - 4/25/2018

Two of the NHL’s original six teams, the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs will entertain puckheads Wednesday evening by competing against one another in their fourth Stanley Cup Playoffs game seven.

These two storied clubs have exchanged wins in their previous three game seven results. In 1941 the Bruins advance in the semi-final round. In 1959 the Maple Leafs returned the favor and advanced past the B’s in the same semi-final round (the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a much different tournament bracket pre-expansion).

In this same quarter final round in 2013 these two teams played a memorable contest in which the Maple Leafs held a 4-1 lead late into the game only to have the Bruins score three (the third with .41 seconds remaining in the third period) to send it into OT where Brad Marchand scored to allow the Bruins to advance.

The Bruins have several players from that team active for this game seven tomorrow, they include team leaders Rask, Chara, Bergeron, Krejci, Krug, McQuaid as well the aforementioned Marchand. For Toronto only D Gardiner, W Van Riemsdyk and C Kadri remain but suffice it to say that current Coach Mike Babcock (and these three stalwart payers) will use this 2013 game as motivation for this year’s quest to hoist the Cup.

Each team’s veteran players will provide leadership and focus but it will be the performances of the youthful athlete’s on each team that will determine the outcome of this game.

Boston’s depth and veteran leadership made them the -150 favorite in this series and they’ll be a -165 chalk again tonight.

Boston came -150 in game one, -185 in game two and -185 again in game five. Tomorrow’s -160 represents Toronto’s recent performances coupled with the overall tightening of play in any game seven.

A major factor in considering the Bruins is the veteran leadership on this team. That depth of leadership is mixed with a great infusion of youth (who were forced into action during the regular season to overcome numerous injuries on the roster). Together they comprise a team that with Tukka Rask in net execute hockey ‘from the goal out’. The Bruins play excellent defense (2.56 GAA regular season and 2.66 GAA this round), their defense allows the fewest shots on goal of all the playoff teams and they earned this opportunity with their regular season success to compete on home ice for this ultimate game seven showdown.

Toronto’s advantages lie in their team speed, the momentum they tote into town as they’ve played excellent hockey behind the efforts of G Anderson, a clear advantage on the bench in Head Coach Babcock and the motivation provided by both trying to fulfill lifelong dreams and to make amends for the organizational defeat experienced in 2013. The Toronto D has been less than stellar in this series as it’s been bailed out (recently) by the stellar play of Netminder Freddie Anderson. It will be Anderson’s performance more than any other tomorrow night that will be the determining factor in whether the Leafs can move forward into the next round as he was shaky early in tis series and has performed well the last couple of contests.

Moving on to round two to compete against the Tampa Bay Lightning will be the Boston Bruins in my judgement who are the deeper club, the more talented club and the team that executes hockey “from the goal out”. I also released Bruins +300 to win the Wales in an open ended Parlay....Let's keep that alive into this next round.....

Enjoy game seven Puckheads!

GambLou.com

Profitable PSports Gaming

 


UFC FN 129 Barboza vs. Lee: "BEAT me tonight in Atlantic City" - 4/21/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 129.

My main event breakdown between Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee has been affected by Lee’s lack of professionalism in not making weight. Normally I rail against fighters who attempt to gain advantage by manipulating the rules to their favor. In Lee’s case, he bumbled his way through the weigh-in process eventually missing weight and has cause himself numeric disadvantage by doing so.

On March 11th I released Lee -120 on Point Spread Weekly then this week followed up with the comments below. Yesterday after the outspoken Lee missed the limit (by a pound) I covered all exposure with Barboza +140.

Lee -120 was a strong position with the understanding that he was bringing a 110% focused effort BUT the kid is young, he’s fighting a dangerous, desperate fighter who’s second home is Atlantic City and he spits up on himself in preparation for this career opportunity? I’m not comfortable with the effort I can expect from Lee so now I’ll step out of the main event. This is not an ideal situation as I never like to take a wager down unless warranted. I believe this move is a responsible one. There will be hundreds of other UFC bouts this year so the reaction today to Lee’s ineptitude is comfortable restraint..

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Edson Barboza +120 vs. Kevin Lee -140 (published 4-18 PSW*)

Atlantic City, NJ hosts the UFC this week and the main event is yet another duel of top Lightweight’s each entering the Octagon with varying strengths. Saturday, fourth ranked Barboza looks to erase the memory of his late December drubbing at the hands of Lightweight Champion Nurmagomendov by defeating Lee which will insure his position as top Lightweight contender.

Barboza a Brazilian who’s earned a brown belt in BJJ is most comfortable working behind a lethal employment of Muay Thai, Taekwondo and boxing. Barboza will be the taller, longer man who’ll strive to do his damage by maintaining distance from the opponent where he can inflict damage with steady striking and lethal leg kicks. Barboza’s decision to take this fight against an up and coming talent off a one-sided but experience gaining loss is a dubious one in my judgement. It was less than four months ago that Barboza took a full fifteen-minute beatdown in a title eliminator to Nurmagomedov and now he turns around quite quickly to take on another top talent. Fight history is laden with examples of fighters turning around too quickly to take on other top ranked competition only to learn that patience for body but most especially mind is critical.

Kevin Lee, at twenty-five is seven years younger than Barboza. While experience favors the Brazilian let’s not forget that in the UFC fighters more than five years younger than the opponent prevail 62% of the time*. Lee’s strength as a mixed martial artist is that he’s a dominating grappler/wrestler.  His striking has improved enough to be able to work inside Barboza’s range where he may clasp, hug and ram the opponent against the fence then onto the mat. He’ll aim to copy Nurmagomedov’s fight plan for Barboza. Lee’s advantages in athleticism, quickness and youth make him a most dangerous opponent for the cagey Brazilian. Lee takes this fight a full six months off a loss to Tony Ferguson (the last man to defeat Barboza prior to December). My belief is that he’s had time to gather himself off that loss and has prepared and improved according coming into this challenge. Saturday’s victor is sure to be considered a top challenger to Nurmagomedov so this fight is highly relevant in the Lightweight Division.

I released Lee -120 here on PSW a few weeks ago, so readers who moved then hold advantage. To those reading Wednesday, Lee -140 to -150 is the limit.

As Mentioned above this fight is now PASS

Santos -170 vs. Branch +150

Santos is a straight out striking assassin but he’s quite one dimensional as he has little wrestling/grappling skill other than the freakish strength he possesses to buck while down to escape the floor. Branch brings enough wrestling skill that If…If he can get inside Santos charging attempts to knock his head off can clasp onto the slugger and take him down to control this fight in one ugly slog on the sod. Branch is live tonight….

Branch +150

Chagas -120 vs. Bahadurzada +110

I released Chagas -110 on @VSiN earlier this week with Matt Youmans on the Edge. He’s younger faster, more explosive and if he has addressed his conditioning (he tends to overextend early) then he may surely hold advantage. Siylar has battled injury and is dropping from a career starting 205 lbs. to 170lbs. for this fight in his zeal to be competitive. Speed kills.

Chagas -110

Sorry about the short card today Enthusiasts. I had a multi-unit position on Lee. Circumstances MUST be exactly right for me to follow through on any position and this weight miss equates to roughly a 12% reduction in win results in the UFC. It’s important to take advantage and detect disadvantage.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning Puck Profits: Cry, quit or grind? - 4/16/2018

Welcome Puckheads to week one of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What a difference a year makes! Last year we couldn’t miss a release entering the second week of the Playoffs and this year it seems we can’t deliver a dog anywhere! This leads me to a story which happens to be true.

In 2013 Mr. Chris Andrews (who is now Sportsbook Director at the Southpoint hotel) approached me to write UFC and NHL for his webpage ‘Against theNumber.com’. I was fresh off handicapping the Kings and Jonathan Quick to win the Cup in 2012 at 25-1 and knew that I would bring my 2012 hot hand into this new exciting writing gig for Andrews’ webpage in 2013.

Funny thing happened during that playoff season however. In 2013 my formula for profitability started out similarly to every year in that I targeted value in road teams and underdogs. The realization came to me early that year as chalk dominated the early rounds.

This put me in a very poor profitability situation, one where I actually was upset to the point where I even thought to stop writing because of the dismal delivery of dogs. However, because I was writing for Andrews I could not cry or quit for the teaching potential of this situation was just too great (even though at the time I was stressing).

This arduous beginning provided me the opportunity to show readers how to effectively navigate tough times and display that dogged determination and work ethic are as critical to the handicapper as those traits are to the people playing sports.

It took me until the last three games of the Stanley Cup Final (Hawks vs. Bruins) in 2013 to finally display a profitable bottom line.  After the season I realized quickly that each season is its own entity and one must be prepared for uncertainty and setback on their way to becoming profitable at sports gaming. That 2013 season taught me (well more than the shining superstar performance of 2012) to remain prepared and trust the process.

Let’s now speak of this year’s start….

After almost one week this Playoff season I’ve started 3-11 -5.25 units with most of my Futures performing positively. This is no time to stress or panic rather the time is now to consider adjusting the process  (just a bit) by reducing releases and perhaps even lowing wager amounts (something we have already executed that saved a full unit earlier this week). The goal now is to work conservatively and limit loss until we discover our stride. We know we WILL discover said stride we just do not know when.

Round 1 Results

Thus far in round one: Favorites are 13-6 and Home Teams 12-7 which helps explain our early swoon (I work to uncover value with road teams and underdogs in Puck Playoffs).

Road dogs are underperforming now but they WILL begin to bark and when they do I’ll be taking advantage of the value that is created after home team chalk begins to choke. Until then the goal is to limit potential liability and work our way into the correction that is coming.

Stay with me as I navigate this 2018 Playoff Puck season from an off start to a furious finish! Remember, its business!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 - 4/15/2018

All Stanley Cup Futures, Conference, Series and daily releases can be accessed by hitting the 'Hockey' taob on the top of this webpage.

The passion

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 128 Gaethje vs. Poirier: Desert D'Arce - 4/14/2018

Welcome to Glendale Arizona for today's UFC fight card. I'll be in attendance today and with Puck Passion also looming I'll post up the positions here and hope you all enjoy one of the most under rated fight cards of the year. I am hoping that the Italian Vettori kicks that scissors cutting weakling Adesanya's arse. more below lol

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Poirier -130 vs. Gaethje +120

Saturday’s UFC fight night 128 takes place in the desert climate of Glendale, AZ. There is no title fight scheduled but the main event features a couple of top ten Lightweight’s that bring varying skillsets into this fight. The late great Angelo Dundee would chime, “styles make fights” and Saturday’s victor featuring Poirier’s technical striking and movement competing against Gaethje’s aggressive, ill-intentioned relentlessness will help clarify who will move closer to a potential title shot against last week’s newly crowned Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov….as most paradoxical ‘career opportunity’ to say the least.

For Poirier movement and conditioning rule as he must not allow himself to get into any dogged exchanges with the taller, larger, stronger Gaethje who will want to make this a barroom brawl. Poirier’s ability to slip power shots, employ movement and counterpunch the incoming bull are the key to his winning this fight for he is a slick effective defensive fighter and understands Gaethje is coming to headhunt.

Gaethje, on the other hand must find a way to punish Poirier early and often to test his suspect chin and wear away at his will. Gaethje will rush Poirier and try to maul him against the cage and maintain inside position to unleash his flurries. Past fights have shown that the plan to pulverize Poirier is to back him up, bully him, crowd him and chip that chin which is exactly what Gaethje wants to do in front of his home state (Gaethje grew up and wrestled in Stafford, AZ.).

Poirier is the more technically sound combatant and will need to accrue striking volume to outpoint the slugger for he’ll not be able to finish the larger stronger opponent. Gaethje will employ dogged determination and unrelenting forward pressure to crowd the counterpuncher against the fence and piece him up with punches, elbows, kicks and knees.

Gaethje +120

Casey -150 vs. Waterson +140

This is a woman’s Strawweight battle where seventh ranked Michelle ‘the Karate hottie’ Waterson faces tenth ranked Courtney Casey. Waterson is recognized for her attractive looks besides being a complete fighter, but she struggles with the top women in the division. Casey has no sexy nick name but what she will have is height, size and a five-inch reach advantage in what looks to be a fight that will be a stand-up affair. Casey enters this fight well less recognized but with far more firepower. Casey will earn a victory in this fight.

Casey -115

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Reis -125 vs. Moraga +115

Sixth ranked Reis, a Brazilian black belt off a couple of losses (to Champion Demetrius Johnson and second ranked Henri Cejudo) must have this fight take place on the mat if he is to get his hand raised. Moraga, an ex-college wrestler must keep this fight upright and not allow Reis to drag him down. Rather, Moraga needs to make this a boxing/striking affair where he’ll hold absolute advantage for on the feet, Reis will be outmatched, and Moraga more effective. Tenth ranked Moraga who’ll hold height and length advantages is fighting off a couple of upset wins, so he enters with confidence and competes in front of his home town. I look for a tremendous effort from Moraga, a fighter many may have written off.  After this fight, Moraga should reestablish himself as a title contender in the Flyweight division.

Moraga +120

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Burns -590 vs. Moret +500

Burns looks the part but is an extremely one-dimensional fighter even though he is top notch world class at his specialty, BJJ. He must get Moret to the mat for the maul here. Moret (an MMALab fighter) has no skills considered ‘world class’ but he is tough as nails, very well-rounded in fight capacity, taller and a bit longer and has been yearning for this opportunity for months. Burns struggled to make weight and Moret looked like a razor blade at weigh-ins. Moret is the more versed fighter and as mangy a mutt as there is on the card. Moret is live….

Moret +500 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Below is the interview with Eddie Alvarez that helped me determine the Gaethje positrion...listen here.

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmrush/eddie-alvarez-breaks-down-the-upcoming-gaethje-vs-poirier-matchup

  

 

 


2018 Stanley Cup Tournament: The Passion of Playoff Puck - 4/10/2018

all Hockey accounting can be access by hittinng the 'Hockey' tab on the top of the webpage. 

(4-10-18 1pm EST)

2018 Stanley Cup Playoff Futures, Conference, Series and Individual game releases posted here beginning Wednesday 4-11-18.

I'll post daily releases from 4 hours to 20 minutes prior to the drop of the puck on any particular contest.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 223 Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta: Big Apple grapple - 4/2/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most unusual UFC 223. Despite the recent uncertainty in Brooklyn there will be a fight slate set to entertain tonight even though some of the fights have been recently changed, cancelled and/or removed. Like in game wagering, providing the 'Makers less time to price a performance actually presents advantage to an educated player as allowing them weeks to monitor the market is their advantage. Here’s the value we have uncovered for today’s UFC 223.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Favorites in the UFC in 2018 are 62-34-5 for 61.3% and while I focus often on uncovering value on underdogs the more important consideration is ‘gaming value’. I work tirelessly to obtain value in any position which Segway’s me to UFC 223 and the Co-main event where there is abundant betting value.

Unfortunately for UFC 223 there has been upheaval and cancellations based on forces beyond any form of logic. That mentioned, it is my job to handicap fights not preside over punk Irishmen and spoiled Champion’s, so the focus is and always will continue to be uncovering value in adults fighting in the Octagon. Here are the selections for UFC 223.

Nurmagomedov –750 vs. Iaquinta +550 (Lightweight Championship)

Late replacements and short notice may have affected other fighters focusing on the UFC title but Khabib Nurmagomedov has confronted the events of the week with a calm demure approach worthy of only a superhuman fighting machine awaiting an opportunity to realize a life-long dream. Insert King Kong, Godzilla or Man Mountain Dean in the cage tonight with Nurmagomedov and just like in his previous fights he’ll quickly find a way to disassemble the opponent and dominate. Tonight, Al Iaquinta is the unfortunate victim.

Pass.

Jedrzejczyk -110 vs. Namajunas +100 (Woman’s Strawweight Championship)

This is a rematch of a November 2017 fight in New York City where Joana Jedrzeczyk opened -450 and closed just prior to the opening bell -710. For this battle in Brooklyn she opened -210 (a price I feel is an accurate reflection of this fight) and is currently -115. This is an overlay and there’s value on Joanna Champion for reasons beside the just the price.

Rose Namajunas is a fearless, well-rounded fighter who upset one of the most dominant women’s Champion’s in the UFC when she knocked out Joanna in November. Namajunas is almost as tall as Joanna, is five years younger and arguably has a more well-rounded skill set though she is nowhere near as capable a striker as Joanna (despite what transpired in the first fight). In the November title fight Joanna got ‘Rousey’ed’ if you will. She went from a humble, efficient, dedicated, focused fighting machine and morphed to one of the Kardashians in just three or four title defenses. Joanna, a small-town gal from outback Poland got quite comfortable wearing new Gucci, sporting designer jeans and taking private jets to conduct interviews while swilling on mimosa’s. What she was not doing was living in the gym and taking care of fight business which is what earned her the Championship.

Meteoric fame, overnight riches and instant notoriety are cancer for fighters and Joanna ate the cake like a fat kid at a birthday party leading up to that night in November. This was evident when she weighed in for the fight and especially so on fight night when she could barely compete past a minute into the first round.

I’m approaching the handicapping of this fight from a more psychological point of view.  Gauging each fighter’s perspective and mindset is entering this second fight is mandatory.

For Namajunas the spot is arduous. She’s not as dangerous a striker as Joanna and while perhaps more capable on the ground she’ll have trouble gaining inside position against a properly conditioned, focused, prepared Joanna. Namajunas must overcome Joanna’s 81% take down defense to keep from having to compete with her on the feet where she’ll be outmatched by a constant barrage of precision striking.

 Joanna meanwhile has defeated everyone she has faced (except for Rose) and is quite confident she can win this fight for she too is aware of the many distractions that caused her to lose focus on the title. She’s been training with the fervor and dedication that eluded her in preparation for their November fight as well she’s learned a most valuable lesson. Joanna is not only a top athlete in the UFC but dominant within her division. On Saturday night she’s steps into the Octagon a worthy -200 chalk (as I handicap this fight). It’s my opinion that it will be some time if any time before we may capture Joanna at a price this modest.

Saturday night we’ll see a focused determined ex-Champion and I believe she’ll add Rose Namajunas to list of ladies in the women’s Strawweight Division that have been jolted by Jedrzejczyk.

Jedrzejczyk -110

Kattar -110 vs. Moicano +100

We released this fight earlier this week Moicano +120. In this fight Moicano must deal with the aggressive boxing/striking base Kattar employs. Kattar will have a power advantage but only provided he can keep this standing. Moicano must be successful in gaining inside position and clasping onto the striker thus usurping some starch from Kattar’s striking.  If he can accomplish this, he may well be able to piece Kattar up anywhere this fight goes as we get into the second round and past. Moicano has faced a higher level of competition and is more complete as a fighter in my judgement. Kattar gains his PhD. In MMA tonight.

Moicano +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Moicano +120

(4-4-18 4:30pm EST)

Jedrzejczyk -115

released -130 @Twitter 3-12-18