UFC FN127 Werdum vs. Volkov: London Flog - 3/17/2018

The UFC continues to deliver world class mixed martial arts across the globe with a visit to London England for Saturday’s Fight Night 127 where Brazilian Fabricio ‘Vai Cavalo’ Werdum faces Russian Alexander ‘Drago’ Volkov in the Heavyweight main event. UFC cards outside the U.S. take on an international flavor as the UFC features each region’s top mixed martial artists and, in many cases, sets them up in ‘favorable’ circumstances. This fight card lacks star powered name recognition (outside of the main event) but it does feature interesting stylistic matchups and some rising regional talent.

Fabricio Werdum -210 vs. Alexander Volkov +180 Heavyweights (up to 265lbs.)

This fight is a perfect metaphor to what the late great boxing trainer Angelo Dundee described when he stated, ‘styles make fights’. The combatant that controls the middle of the Octagon takes the first important step in dictating where this fight takes place as each wants to compete against the other from differing tactical positions.

Werdum, at forty is experiencing a recent career resurgence for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is (and always has been) world class, his striking has grown to be effective and the depth of competition he’s faced provides him a wealth of fight experience. Werdum is a well-rounded fighter but Saturday he’ll need to make this fight a maul on the mat if he hopes to have his hand raised as victor. He must eliminate distance by pressuring Volkov and making him backup. Werdum must work to get inside on the Russian to smother the larger, taller, longer striker thus neutralizing his punching power. Werdum, a skilled submission specialist must then force Volkov against the cage in order to clasp onto him so he can drag this fight to the floor where Volkov does not want to be. Werdum has just enough stand-up skill to strike with Volkov but only with the goal of gaining the clinch then forcing this fight down to the floor.

Werdum’s body of work is impressive and the competition he’s faced is world class, but his body also bears the brunt of some sixteen years of top level MMA competition. While he sports abundant experience Werdum has weathered various injuries and enters this fight Saturday with one most concerning issue; a suspect beak. Werdum’s chin and his history of being iced is an important aspect in this matchup. Knowing this, Werdum must be cautious entering and Volkov for his part, must not get to aggressive coming in or he’ll wind up being taken down and on the mat. Both combatants are keenly aware that Volkov possesses the power pulverize Werdum with one punch.

The challenge for Werdum is that he must find a way to negate the substantial striking length of Volkov as he attempts to maneuver inside. The power striking Russian’s goal will be to keep Werdum at distance with a punishing jab controlling the center of the Octagon. Center control is a key for he who controls the center of the Octagon can control the opponent by utilizing forward pressure.

 ‘Drago’ as Volkov is called enters this fight a relatively one-dimensional mixed martial artist in that his striking and Muay-Thai are excellent, but his wrestling and grappling are untested. Volkov will have a substantial youth advantage on Werdum as he’ll be the much larger, longer and stronger man in the Octagon. Werdum will try early and often to get to Volkov’s legs for the takedown which is of utter importance for his chances of winning. Volkov must rely on his effective take down defense and superior strength to counter the take down attempts from the Brazilian. Keeping this fight upright is critical for Volkov as it will enable him to work off a piston jab, straight right hand, teeps* and powerful knees.  Making Werdum pay a heavy price to try to get inside must be the goal for Volkov.

Volkov’s ability to evade takedowns is critical while the unrelenting efforts of Werdum to find his way into the clinch, then to the floor to secure the submission make this fight intriguing. Werdum is an experienced world class combatant looking to regain the heavyweight title but he’s entering the Octagon with a man that is eleven years younger, physically stronger, considerably larger and faster than he is.  Werdum will have to utilize all his savvy and skill to force Volkov into a mistake so he can take this fight to the mat for advantage.  In my judgement, counting on beguiling the opponent in a heavyweight fight is a lot to ask. Volkov’s strength, size, youth and power should enable him to overcome Werdum’s experience and guile in a fight where ‘father time’ remains undefeated.

Volkov +180

other releases:

Ware +310 (half)

Sobotta +190 (half)

Craig +600

(half added via Twitter)

Blachowicz/Manuwa Over 2.5 -120

(added via twitter)

Upcoming Fights

Here are two upcoming UFC fights I’ll eventually break down on Point Spread Weekly. I believe that the closer we get to each matchup these prices will move away from current pricing, so the recommendation is to invest now to obtain market advantage.

UFC 223 April 7, 2018

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -135 vs. Rose Namajunas + 125 Strawweight

When these two first tussled (November 2017) Joanna Champion opened a firm -450 and went off -755.  In this rematch, Joanna opened -210 and her price now is -140. Joanna’s glaring issue in her loss to Namajunas will not be an issue in this rematch and I disagree with the direction this price has taken.

Joanna -135

UFC Fight Night 129 April 21, 2018

Kevin Lee -120 vs. Edson Barboza -120

Capable top-level ex-college wrestlers (Lee) can be kryptonite to Jiu-Jitsu Muay-Thai based fighters (Barboza). Lee -120 is a bargain based on his recent schooling at the hands of Tony Ferguson and he will likely go off at a much higher price by the time they ring the bell for round one. I recommend grabbing the -120 now with the athletic, ill-intentioned, wrestling based fighter facing a Muay Thai striking based Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist.

Lee -120


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  • Teeps are front push kicks utilized in mixed martial arts to both badger the incoming opponent as well to maintain distance from an incoming opponent.

UFC 222 Edgar vs. Ortega: Will T-City have 'the Answer' at T Mobile? - 3/3/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 222. I’ll ask forgiveness today as today’s fight write ups will be brief. I am struggling with the Flu and simply don’t have the energy to rewrite everything discussed over this past week on the podcasts (Games Galore with Brian Edwards, Wagertalk with Scot Speitzer and of course our weekly rendezvous with Gabriel Morency and Cam Stewart on their live radio program Game Time Decisions).

All these segments are available via @Twitter for those interested in detailed breakdowns. I also was pleased to appear on VSiN’s ‘The Edge’ with Matt Youmans yesterday post weigh-ins and that segment can be viewed by going to VSiN.com. Just access the replay tab then find ‘The Edge’ Matt Youmans and Erin Rynning (3-2-18) I appear at the 1:41 mark of that show. In my weekly column for VSiN called ‘Insight the Octagon’, I did make a couple of releases. That column is below with an update from today for those of you who are not yet subscribing to that outstanding gaming newsletter. It’s important to note that these articles need to be submitted on Monday evening and much can change during fight week, so I’ll provide a comment at the end of each breakdown before listing the remaining fighters we’ll invest with tonight.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

‘Insight the Octagon’ published 2-28-18

The Women’s Featherweight title takes center stage Saturday as Brazilian Chris Cyborg -1650 faces Russian underdog Yana Kunitskaya +1100.  Cyborg is arguably the most dominant Women’s mixed martial artist alive.  She is powerful, explosive, and unyielding on the floor, standing, against the fence or in the clinch.  These ladies compete as Featherweight’s Saturday (145 lbs.) even though Kunitskaya has only fought at Bantamweight (135 lbs.) since 2015. Kunitskaya steps into this ‘mission impossible’ with four weeks’ notice so she’s had very little time to prepare for a larger, more skilled opponent. This mismatch is not main event status which is why I’ll focus on other fights this week. The real headliner Saturday is Edgar vs. Ortega which should be the main event and a five-round fight.

UFC 222 Edgar -180 vs. Ortega +160 Featherweights

Frankie Edgar is arguably the most complete mixed martial artist in the UFC. His wrestling base is world class, his grappling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and striking have enabled him to remain dominant in the Lightweight/Featherweight divisions since early 2007 (Edgar held the lightweight title from 2010 to 2012). Edgar’s twenty-three fights in the UFC against the most capable fighters in the organization provide him vast experience and confidence.  His fight IQ, footwork, movement, grit and unrelenting pressure have made him a title contender since his arrival to the organization. A win over Ortega earns Edgar the elusive title Championship fight he was originally scheduled to compete in this past December. Edgar was injured in late 2017 postponing the first scheduled title fight then Holloway was injured prior to this scheduled title fight.  Edgar’s title opportunity has now morphed into an elimination bout. This is substantial psychologically as he must now take a step backwards to earn the title shot that he’d already been preparing himself for…twice.

So, Brian Ortega steps in on short notice to bypass Edgar as next in line for the Featherweight title. Edgar’s been preparing for a fighter with vastly different skills than Ortega.  Instead of a long, angular striker Edgar now faces a larger, younger, faster Jiu-Jitsu specialist in an elimination bout not a Championship one. It’s reasonable to question the affect the title delays and this opponent change will have on Edgar.  He’s now forced to deal with another world class mixed martial artist to earn his title opportunity. Edgar is aware of his age and limitations after years of epic battles and this is an arduous spot as these delays, setbacks, opponent changes may affect him adversely.

Brian Ortega has physical advantages over the 5’6” Edgar. Ortega will be the much larger heavier man in the Octagon when the bell rings Saturday night.  His height is listed as 5’8” but he towered over the 5’8” Cub Swanson in his last outing. I believe Ortega to be closer to 5’10”.  Ortega is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant trained by Rener Gracie since he was damn near in diapers. He had his first pro fight at nineteen. Ortega’s cerebral in his approach to fighting and has had to work diligently to incorporate striking skills to his game to complete himself as a World Class fighter. Ortega has always possessed lethal submission skill, but his improved striking has enabled him to compete with other striking based fighters until they make an error allowing Ortega to clasp on to them and choke them out. Ortega will have a slight reach advantage over Edgar, but his height will make him seem even longer when they are standing. Being seven years younger is also an edge for Ortega as fighters more than five years younger than their opponents hold a 62% advantage in fights since the UFC’s inception*.

Edgar opened -190 with the return on Ortega +180 (Pinnacle). This three-round fight comes down to whether Edgar has enough time to grind on Ortega, usurp his strength, control the ground position and wangle Ortega’s will. Edgar is more effective draining opponents over five-round fights as a three-round tilt favors the younger, faster man with less championship experience in my judgement. Frankie Edgar has been the poster boy for prepared, professional, polished mixed martial artists since his first fight in the UFC in 2007 but Saturday night the younger, larger Ortega is going to have the ability to vie with Edgar anywhere this fight takes place.

Ortega +160

Added 3-3-18: (We own advantage with Ortega +160 and still recommend him at any price +130 or better)

Soukhamthath -130 vs. O’Malley +115 Bantamweights

Sean O’Malley is a tall, lean, lanky striker who’s soared into recognition and popularity since his appearance on Dana White’s contender series.  Then this past December he won a three-round decision in his UFC debut. O’Malley has speed, length and explosion but he has not been chipped on the chin yet nor has he had to battle any opponent on the floor for any length of time.  He’s yet to experience any real difficulty inside the Octagon but against this striking-based opponent he will surely be tested in what appears to be a stand-up war.

Soukhamthath enters the cage Saturday night at 1-2 in the UFC but he just signed a five-fight extension with the organization. This extension suggests that the UFC views Soukhamthath as a fighter well more capable than his record suggests (as do I).  O’Malley will be the taller, longer man in this Bantamweight fight but Soukhamthath will be the stronger more powerful striker. In my judgement Soukhamthath’s experience, strength and ground capability make him a worthy favorite.

We’ve seen these lines move as we get closer to opening bell in past weeks. There could be O’Malley money as we approach Saturday, so I advise a modest position on Soukhamthath -130 now then patience waiting for a better price later in the week

Soukhamthath -130

Added 3-3-18: (this number did compress as we thought, now at pick-em (-105 on each fighter) We’ll add another half unit to the wager making a full unit position at a blended price of Soukhamthath -115).


Viera -195 vs. Zingano +180

I released Zingano +170 yesterday at weigh-ins and it has cost us a dime. Viera struggled to make weight and is a tough yet unproven and inexperienced fighter. She’s a grappler BJJ artist and must get this to the floor for advantage because her striking skills are unrefined to say it nicely. She jumps in with Zingano who has been honing her skills while she’s been away mending a knee. This line opened a pick-em now Zingano can be had +180. Zingano is a world-class fighter and an accomplished mixed martial artist. She’s set to outclass Viera in this fight tonight and I believe if anyone should be a slight chalk in this fight it’s Cat Zingano.

Zingano +180 (current)

Dern -420 vs. Yoder +380

Dern is a savant BJJ artist but is short, has a sizable reach deficit in this fight and it is her UFC debut. I also question her toughness and ability to grind out a full three rounds. While she is worthy of being a favorite against Yoder she is in no way should be -420 chalk against a fighter who has ten years’ experience in MMA and three UFC fights under her belt. Dern must get this fight to the floor and quickly if she is to submit Yoder because if the longer, talker, larger Yoder is able to weather the early storm and find herself in round two I believe she has a great chance to win this fight.

Yoder +380 (half released earlier this week)

Stamman -130 vs. Caraway +120

Stamman has a solid wrestling foundation, he can strike successfully with the fighters in the division as well he’s tougher than a two-dollar steak. In his two UFC Bantamweight appearances he’s showed up as the underdog and licked two worthy opponents in Tom Duquesnoy and Terrion Ware. Stamman is taking a step up in class but I feel it is a step up in name recognition only for Caraway must prove himself to be the same fighter now that he was prior to the many issues he’s had to face to get here. Caraway’s been off for almost two years undergoing shoulder surgery and healing a knee. He also lost long-time girlfriend (Meisha Tate) who’s now engaged, pregnant and moving on. Moreover, his longtime trainer and mentor/coach passed away during this period. Caraway arrived in Vegas sick for it was apparent in an interview this week (with John Morgan of the MMA Junkie) that he was couching, sniffling and clearing throat even though he told Morgan that it was allergies. Stamman is a tough first opponent for anyone let alone someone having to face these emotional and physical obstacles.

Stamman -130


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•          @Megalocksinsidr provided this statistic


UFC Fox 28 Stephens vs. Emmettt Lights-Out in Orlando - 2/25/2018

Stephens -145

Latife +135

Griffen +320 (half)

Moroz +140 (half)

(added via @Twitter)

UFC FN126 Cerrone vs. Medeiro: 'Teep' in the heart of Texas - 2/18/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 126. I break down the upcoming UFC main event (and other top fights) for publication on the VSiN subscription-based ‘Point Spread Weekly’.  I submit the articles by Tuesday AM each week which is great for handicapping.  The practice of having to submit a complete breakdown by Tuesday AM is challenging as most understand that I prefer to wait until fight day to incorporate all data (up to and including all weigh-ins) prior to releasing positions unless warranted by line movement. Let’s see how the early breakdown compares to my update! Now without further flapping….

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Originally published 2-14-18

This week’s UFC fight slate from Austin, Texas is headlined by Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone who takes on Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros in what is sure to be a Welterweight war. The card features few recognizable names for the casual fight fan but it is a ‘Fight Night’ event and therefore is free to view as early prelims on the UFC’s fightpass at 2:30pm PST then at 3:30pm PST the remaining fights on FS1. At the time of this writing there are only a few fights with lines available so the focus in on the Main event.

Cerrone -160 vs. Medeiros +140

Cerrone hit the UFC in 2011 and has faced twenty-six top fighters in both the Lightweight division (155lb.) and currently the Welterweight division (170lb.). He fights almost four events per year because the guy loves to compete, but he also likes to drink ice cold Budweiser and spend his money. In those past twenty-six fights while he has only been beaten seven times he’s lost his last three fights all in 2017 and has not had his hand raised since Dec. 2016. Age is a double-edged sword in the fight game for there is a fine line between the title and a tumble. 

Cerrone’s workload since he’s entered the UFC is important as a fight is one thing but training to fight four fights per year for almost seven years is a staggering workload for a fighter who’ll be thirty-five in March but he’s well older in fight years. At least he’s taken moderate time off since the Darren Till drubbing but is that really going to provide the Poke with pop? Cerrone may need to try to get this fight to the floor if he is to have a chance at halting the Hawaiian.

This is a benchmark fight, for with a win ‘Cowboy’ remains relevant in the division but lose and he transitions from former championship contender to journeyman gatekeeper that ascending young fighters (See Darren Till Cerrone’s last opponent) will use to pad their resume’. 

Yancy Medeiros is the ship in fighter from Hawaii who has been fighting on cards with fellow Hawaiian Max Holloway.  There’s a groundswell of mixed martial artists emanating from our fiftieth state and Medeiros, who’s won three in a row is top of the list. He’s primarily a stand-up striker with heart, grit, determination and power but dubious strike defense. He tends to get in wars. Medeiros is three inches shorter than Cerrone, but he is the younger man (almost five years) and he’ll have a two-inch arm reach advantage (one-inch leg reach advantage).  Cerrone is a step up in class for Medeiros but the islander will be the faster more explosive combatant in a fight that I see as a stand-up affair.

Cerrone opened -160 and the takeback on Medeiros is +140 as of this writing. Even casual fans of the UFC are aware of ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and it’s my belief that because of that the ‘Makers have shaded the number to Cerrone.  I see this fight as very competitive and feel there’s some line value in Medeiros. As with many sporting events the price on the mangy mutt Medeiros may mature as we approach fight night (Sunday this week) so patience is advised as in an ideal situation I prefer to ingest the weigh-ins prior to making final decisions. That said, this is a profession and scrutinizing these lines is part of the due diligence so we’re always ready to jump if the situation necessitates. Line value must be a point of focus for any handicapper.

-Update 2-18-18 1pm EST-

So, we pulled the trigger on Medeiros +145 on Wednesday and hope subscribers of ‘Point Spread Weekly’ took our advice for if they did (even until Saturday) they could have captured Medeiros at a dog price. If Cerrone were to wander into dog territory would I consider moving on the Cowboy to insure profit? Of course, but the price would need to get to +115 or higher to give that any consideration.

I believe Medeiros is the victor in this fight but because I write this Saturday AM and recognize that today’s fight enthusiasts need insight here it is:

I advise passing on Medeiros at current pricing as the professional’s goal is to get the best of the number and making a move on Medeiros now would represent the worst of the number.  Let’s look elsewhere for value. The total in this fight is Under is 2.5 -135 (opened under -105) while take back on the over 2.5 rounds is +120. I believe this fight to works its way into the later rounds before either of these two warriors acquiesce to the other.  

Texas Tykes, mangy mutts and putrid pups

Pudilova -135 vs. Moras +125

Striker (Pudilova) vs. Moras the submission seeker. Where this fight is fought will tell the tale here for Moras is under developed in her striking and will get pieced up if this fight goes three rounds on the feet.  Moras must weather the early Czech storm then eliminate Pudilova’s distance and cram this fight to the cage. From cage control comes the take down and if Moras can manage to make this a maul on the mat the advantages are hers. Dog or pass

Moras +125 (half)

Joby Sanchez -145 vs. Roberto Sanchez +135

This fight opened a pick but the number has moved toward the better looking, striking based Sanchez (Joby) who has suspect take down defense and finds himself inside the Octagon with a wresting based grinder who will own substantial advantage if he can jerk Joby and force this into a flop on the floor. Roberto needs to weather the early striking flurry, then in rounds two and three work to get inside the striker, close distance and control this fight from tight quarters. This is the ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’ fight as Roberto looks more like a grocer than a grappler but I feel he’s positioned for profitable pup status tonight.

Roberto Sanchez +135 (half)

Alves -150 vs. Millender +140

Alves has had one fight since November of 2016, a victory over another aged, worn fighter, Patrick Cote’. He’ll have an experience edge, has offensive capability no matter where the fight goes and though compact (he’s quite short for the division) does have ferocious power and lethal leg kicks. Millender is a vicious stand up striking based fighter who needs distance to deliver destruction.  Millender steps up in class here but he’s five years the younger man, he’ll tower over Alves (who’s teetered between Lightweight and Welterweight) and he’ll sport substantial reach advantages. Youth, speed, explosiveness, size, and reach must be employed if Millender is going to overcome his savvy, cagey opponent. Millander can’t allow Alves to get inside and make this a groping slow dance on Prom night or he’ll be compromised. Millender needs to employ movement and control space to launch those destructive kicks and precision power punches. The key to the fight hinges on Alves ability to work his way inside the reach of the younger man, grip him, and make the fight ugly eventually forcing Millender to use energy trying to escape the clasp. ‘Styles make fights’ as the late great Angelo Dundee would chide. This fight is exactly that.  

Millender +140

Tybura -110 vs. Lewis +100

Lewis retired about a year ago after his last fight against Mark Hunt with back issues only to change his mind and return?  Red Flag.  The Beast is an explosive mauler when healthy but how do you wager on a warrior who fights in frenetic fashion, has a tender mid-section and has had a history of back issues? Lewis had to endure a twenty-pound weight loss to make the limit of 265 for Heavyweights tonight and while he’ll be the more massive man in the Octagon I question his capability to fight effectively beyond five minutes. Tybura (opened -130) can hold his own striking against this meaty mauler provided he controls distance but he’ll need to eventually find a way to get Lewis down to the ground most likely when Lewis charges inside to engage. Position will be the key when this fight hits the floor for one strength of Lewis is his formidable ground and pound so Tybura must take top control. I see Lewis taking a fifteen-minute beating here.

Tybura -110 


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UFC 221 Rockhold vs. Romero: Outback and Overweight - 2/8/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 221 from Perth Australia.  We’ll experience International fight flavor on this slate as there will be combatants from several different Countries each bringing diverse styles of fighting expertise into the cage.  The local Aussie fanbase will be belting ‘butchers’* starting at seven AM local time so we Americani’s may view the card in primetime which is quite accommodating of them! Several local Kiwi’s and Aussies many with opponents carefully chosen for them (in my estimation) will fortify fan frenzy for the proud Aussie’s in attendance will be fueled by fight time!  We’re in for an entertaining and hopefully profitable evening of MMA tonight.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

 Rockhold -165 vs. Romero +155

Yoel Romero initially missed weight (188.3) and was given two hours to make the 185lb. limit or be exempt from earning the Middleweight title if he gets his hand raised.  The fight is on, Romero’s final weight 187.7 is disappointing but the ramifications of this ordeal are quite different from what we experienced last week in Brazil with what I consider to be outright cheating.  Romero’s integrity is intact. Yes, he missed weight, and yes, it’s unprofessional to do so but let’s not forget that he DID take the fight on short notice. Further, the effect on him of the two hours to continue to try to get to 185lbs. is devastating both emotionally and physically and negatively affects his chance to win this fight. Meanwhile as Romero is forced to deal with this distraction and strife Rockhold was hydrating, eating and preparing to deliver the best performance of his career.

Each man brings their own expertise and unique skill(s) into this fight. Romero (forty-one this April) is a physical freak of nature for he is a muscularly sculpted, world-class wrestling-based fighter whose ferocity and athletic explosiveness are crippling early but often sap him of his energy once the fight gets into the second/third round. Romero prefers to pressure opponents and overwhelm them as he is unusually blessed with speed, dynamic movement and pure power. He’ll need to advance forward and force Rockhold backwards which will squelch the ex-champions punching offense and lethal legs kicks. Romero may not choose to utilize his wrestling in this fight because doing so may sap his limited strength/endurance. If this fight should fall to the floor, Rockhold will be comfortable and in advantageous position for he’s quite versed in wrestling having spent most of his career training with Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier at AKA.  In lieu of Romero’s issue with weight, expect a stand-up war here.  Romero must quickly work his way inside to eliminate Luke’s length, so he can hail hammering hooks from inside the pocket and try to chip at Luke’s chin for if Bisping can ruin Rockhold then this convulsive Cuban can light Luke up if at any time Rockhold gets careless inside. 

Rockhold enters the Octagon with advantages as he’s eight years the younger man (65% win percentage when there is a 5+ year age difference in fighters weighing over 170 lbs.) * he’ll have a four-inch reach advantage (60+% win rate) * as well he’ll be the longer, taller fighter in what figures now to be a stand-up fight. Rockhold must systematically work to wear the massive Cuban down for early on Romero will be dangerous (perhaps desperate). Rockhold will try to force Romero to utilize energy early by pressing him, attacking his legs to slow the attacker down then moving this fight into the Championship rounds where Romero’s age and historic lack of cardio will minimize his explosiveness, speed and power (compounded now by the weight cut issue).  Look for Rockhold (who prior to his first title defense as Champion went on the champagne and caviar circuit before getting iced by Michael Bisping) to have learned from that Bisping title defense embarrassment and show up on Saturday night focused and primed to produce his best effort against a capable mixed martial artist who remains most dangerous but finds himself clearly acquiescing to father time.

Rockhold opened +105 and quickly moved to -140 until the weigh-ins. Since the miss the line has swelled to -165.

Rockhold -115  

(Released 1-29-18 @Twitter)

Blaydes -155 vs. Hunt +145

Mark Hunt looks like a tubby little warrior from the islands, but he is a tremendously experienced and devastating banger that in his day had a granite chin and the power of a charging Rhino in the cage.  Today Hunt’s slowing as his tread is worn from numerous wars, but he still has the tremendous pride and power though his best is behind him now.  His last shot at glory is to hope the younger, taller, longer wrestling based Blaydes is overlooking him for some reason (I feel there is little chance of this) or fights a foolish fight which would involve trying to stand with Hunt whose single way to victory is via the KO.  Hunt has solid take down defense so Blaydes will be forced early to fight his way into the clinch to press the stout striker against the cage and eventually to the floor if he is to gain advantage in this fight.  After a round of Blaydes making Hunt effort for any strike he may land the forty-four-year-old’s mettle and effectiveness will wane not because he is weak of mind but because he is old as hell. The key for Blaydes is to force Hunt to the floor where dominant wrestling position will allow Blaydes to dictate the tone of the fight.  Blaydes must use fight intelligence and not give into Hunt’s need to make this a furious fight in a phone booth for if Blaydes can weather the early storm and take this to the second round, Hunt’s age, his lack of speed and singular way to win (the KO) will make the proud warrior a ‘mark’. 

Blaydes -155

(released 2-8-18)

Jingliang -155 vs. Matthews +145

Jingliang is off an impressive victory in mainland China just 90 days ago (Jingliang and camp acted as ambassadors for the UFC in organizing and taking leadership in UFC FN 122 in Shanghai where he beat Zac Ottow in a physical three-minute war). His fighting style revolves around opponents accommodating him by standing with him and engaging in striking battles on the feet for Jingliang’s forte is the stand-up war and he’s been in plenty of them.  He has power, stamina and a granite grill but these physical battles and the wear they impart on a fighter not to mention coming off a hugely emotional win just a few months ago put Jingliang in dubious position in my judgement.

Jingliang must control distance as he does not want this fight on the floor for his striking advantage is muted there.  Matthews has been a victim of youth and inexperience so far in his career but he’s only twenty-three years old and in his last outing he displayed the glimmer of improvement that we needed to see from a fighter I believe is just beginning to find himself. Matthews will be able to hold his own against the Chinese warrior long enough to work this fight to the floor. Let’s not forget that in his initial fight at Welterweight Matthews looks strong in taking Bojan Velickovic to the laundry and we view Velickovic as quite similar in many ways to Jingliang, so I feel Matthews is well prepared to display his best effort in this fight in front of his Countrymen. 

Matthews +150

(released 2-8-18)

Quinones -160 vs. Ishihara +140

Quinones wants to clinch, maul, grope and grind while Ishihara wants to use speed, movement, precision striking and distance control.  I like Ishihara as a mangy mutt here.

Ishihara +140 (half)

Note: Fighter that almost made the cut is Kim -125….monitoring


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* ‘Butchers’ is Aussie slang for ice-cold brews

* This stat provided by @Megalockinsidrs

* Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn


UFC 221 Early releases: 2-8-18 9:40AM EST

Rockhold -115 

(released Jan. 29th @Twitter)

Matthews +150

Blaydes -155 

Full write ups avaialble on Point Spread Weekly @VSiNlive and Saturday on the GambLou.com blog


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UFC FN125 Machida vs. Anders: Bodylock in Belem - 1/30/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 125 from Belem, Brazil.  The northern Brazilian fans are deserving of a worthy fight card after never having the opportunity to host one prior and we’re excited to view the voracious fans as they cheer their local fighters tonight. 

The excitement for Belem however is tarnished to a degree because of the blatant disregard to the rules of the UFC by two Brazilian fighters, Munhoz (missed by 5lb. and opponent Dodson opted not to fight at a catchweight which would have been a sizeable disadvantage for him) and Prazeres (6 lb. over with no intention of making 155 where he’s missed weight 2-3 times prior).  

Now I preach…

The current 20% loss of pay as penalty for missing weight is not enough deterrent to overcome a fighter that decides to sacrifice their fee in exchange for tremendous advantage over an opponent in a most dangerous game.  I have said many times that the deterrent needs to be strengthened to a 25% loss of all earned fees as well the fight (whether it goes on or not) should be awarded as a LOSS to the penalized fighter. 

Put teeth in the damn rule UFC and second, why would you not pay John Dodson his full purse?  He acted as a true professional on every count and now because he chooses not to take the fight at disadvantage he is penalized by only receiving ‘a portion’ of his purse?

That looks real bush UFC. Sorry, finished now.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Figueiredo -155 vs Morales +145

This is an early bout but one in which I believe some tone may be set.  Figueiredo at 30 is not young but he is an improving fighter off a fine win recently against a worthy wrestler in Jared Brooks.  Enter Morales a twenty-three-year-old fighter out of Alpha Male so we know he has a wrestling base, but this kid been hanging around this gym since he was in diapers almost.  Morales is also a talented improving fighter with an outstanding opportunity here.  We’re going to side with Morales because when this gets dirty, grimy and grinding it is the wrestling-based fighter that will earn advantage because that’s what wrestlers do.

Morales +145 (half)

Patrick -230 vs. Hadzovic +210

I believe this is a completely misguided line and line move.  Patrick looks the part but honestly, I am not impressed with his skill set.  He’ll need to get the awkward brawler to the mat for a maul ideally, but I believe the Bosnian is in Belem to brawl not crawl.  Hadzovic is today’s hold your nose release, but he opened +165 and at +210 is worthy of a look.  This ‘ship-in’ may just show up.

Hadzovic +210 (half)

Santos -265 vs. Smith +245

Smith opened +110.  He’s four inches taller, four years younger (but surely has same wear on his for he’s been fighting for years) and holds reach advantage with legs and arms in what is likely to be a stand-up war.  Smith’s a tall drink of water with a bit of a fragile beak which is why most believe the physical freak that is Santos is going to explode and knock Smith’s nose in the Nile which is quite possible.  That said this is a big opportunity for Smith who if he can get this fight to the second round will swing advantage to his corner as he comes complete with capable cardio and dynamic durability.  It is Santos who after the furious first few can get all ‘swole’ up after producing plenty of profuse power punches.  Today’s flyer….

Smith +245 (half)

Prazeres -120 vs. Green +110

This dirty cheat Prazeres make no effort to make weight in any ethical or professional fashion and we’ve seen some of this (from primarily Brazilian fighters) recently and I absolutely hate it. Prazeres is a strong stubby fire hydrant but he is thirty-six and while he’s won his last several fights, the level of competition has not been what he’s about to see tonight.  Green’s a D1 wrestler and the first thing taught me by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu coaches was that world class wrestlers are kryptonite to BJJ fighters.  Des Green will be the first D1 wrestler this pimp Prazeres has ever faced which has Green backers salivating.  Green’s six plus years younger, well-rounded in a MMA sense and can fight if frantic fashion forever.  Green’s plan is going to be to break this bum by weathering everything the old man can dish early then later into this fight grind this cheating chump out.  I am passionate about ethical honorable fighters doing their job and tonight Des Green is going to do his.

Green +130

(released earlier this week)

Green at any dog price is a worthy wager


Profitable Sports Gaming



1-30-18 10am EST

Des Green +130

Full write ups and releases available here Saturday AM

UFC Fox27 Brunson vs. Souza: Submissions form Charlotte - 1/27/2018

UFC 220 displayed that well-rounded, experienced Mixed Martial Artists own advantage over talented, raw fighters developing mixed martial arts skills. Stipe Miocic holds the category of polished Mixed Martial Artist while last Saturday’s opponent Francis Ngannou left the Octagon understanding that a complete and developed fight arsenal is required to realize success in the UFC.  Stipe won his third title defense (a record in the UFC) by utilizing kick-boxing, boxing, wrestling and grappling weaponry against the one-dimensional plodding power puncher.

Determining which mixed martial artists provide gaming value is critical as some UFC cards are rife with live dogs and value while others offer few capable canines and value opportunities. This week’s fight card from Charlotte features few mainstream MMA match-ups, so the (as always) is to focus on uncovering value where one fighter holds ‘advantage’ over the opponent. 

Advantage in the UFC as with all sports CAN be quantified through metrics. Weekly, I’ll share statistics, facts and figures that contribute to understanding which fighters possess quantifiable fight advantage over their opponent.  While many advantages like height, reach and size can be simple to grasp others are more intangible but just as important when handicapping a UFC fight.

Age ‘advantage’

Fighters who are at least five years younger than their opponent win 62% of the time since the inception of the UFC. When we segment weight divisions into two groups with 170 pounds being the breakoff the data shows that the five-year difference means even more to larger fighters as the win rate increases to 64.5%*. Age is an important factor in determining potential advantage in the fight game.

UFC Fox 27

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Souza -165 vs. Brunson +145

This fight is a rematch of a 2012 Strikeforce fight. Souza was a 32-year-old mixed martial artist in his prime and feared within MMA because of his efficient disposal of everyone he faced.  He dominated a young raw one-dimensional 28-year-old Brunson (almost a full five-year age difference) despite his wrestling acumen.  That night Souza showed Brunson that he was years away from being able to compete with a fighter of Souza’s ability. Souza KO’d Brunson in the first round of that fight as Brunson rushed forward to engage the Brazilian Black Belt with a protruding chin and wide looping punches. Souza one shot put Brunson to sleep. This fight result was a lesson learned for the developing young Brunson and another finish for Souza.

Today Souza is almost 38 and 2-2 in his last 4 fights spanning the last two plus years and he’s been off almost a full year since his last loss to Whittaker. Souza’s age and numerous fight rounds are affecting his skillset.  Brunson meanwhile has been able to use the last five years to mature, evolve, develop skills and (hopefully) enhance his fight IQ. Souza opened -150 to Brunson +110.  Souza’s age, the wear his body has taken, his 5” inch reach DIS-advantage (fighters that own a minimum 2-inch reach advantage in striking affairs hold a 64% rate of success over fighters giving up said reach**) and the fact that he has looked a bit plodding and deliberate lately signify the proud warrior’s skills are waning.  This is a tough spot for Souza to as he tries to maintain his place in the division against a fighter who has improved substantially since 2012.  Brunson’s length, speed, wrestling skill and take down defense make him a much more competitive fighter this weekend than he was in their first fight in 2012 (then Souza -500 and Brunson +350). Brunson must utilize his skills to keep Souza at distance and control the tempo of the fight with precision striking, legwork and movement. A striking battle may be in Brunson’s plan for Saturday night. If this fight does hit the floor the wrestler (Brunson) needs to immediately gain top control for Souza’s specialty is obtaining top position on the mat and there is no way Brunson wants to vie with Jacare’ at this strength.  This is a dog or pass fight.

Brunson +135 (released earlier this week @Twitter)

Dober -160 vs. Camacho +150

These boys are bangers.  Each fight at 155 but decided to toss the lightweight division out the door and fight at a more comfortable Welterweight 170 tonight.  Camacho has had some Welterweight experience and looked game in a loss against a much larger Jingliang.  Tonight, he faces a smaller man but one that has some ground capability.  Will the local Carolinian, Dober look to put on a show and stand with the bigger, longer Camacho or force this to the floor where he may have advantage over the more one-dimensional Camacho? I believe were in for a stand-up war here as these two look to try to clobber each other in Carolina.

Camacho +150 (released earlier this week @Twitter)

Pichel -105 vs. Silva -105

Pichel is a solid striker but time away overcoming injury, the fact he is six plus years older  than Silva (more in fight years I assure you) scares me here.  Silva may accommodate Pichel for he’s also a stand-up based striker and this battle leads me to believe it’s going to be a brawl.  This fight opened Silva -150.  We’ll watch this line and hope for more value on Silva for we feel he is the more explosive and athletic fighter.  Patience here….Check Twitter for any release and enjoy the fights!


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