UFC 220 Miocic vs. Ngannou: Boston 'Gi' Party - 1/20/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most anticipated fight card.  Since time began there has been fighting and since fighting began bystanders have begged for big boys to battle.  Tonight’s main event was covered in comprehensive fashion in our article for VSiN (Vegas Stats and Information Network, @VSiNlive on Twitter) earlier this week.  We’ll be offering MMA angles and Intel in a weekly column with VSiN on their weekly publication called “Point Spread Weekly” my column is entitled, “Insight the Octagon”.  I’ll post the column from VSiN here today with the disclosure that “Point Spread Weekly” is a subscription based newsletter.  That sai,d the meager fee associated with this publication is a pittance based on the comprehensive gaming intel provided in each edition.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Here's my “Insight the Octagon” piece (main event) which appeared on Point Spread weekly this past Wednesday 1-17-18.

Welcome to Insight the Octagon.  The goal of these columns will be to breakdown upcoming UFC fights while imparting some of the reasoning behind the releases made.  I approach handicapping as running a business and over the four plus decades ‘investing’ in sporting events I have come to adhere to an ‘underdog’ philosophy whether money line wagering or if utilizing point spreads.  The Money line is used to wager on UFC fights.  Seeking out and embracing the ‘mangy mutt’ (a term used for underdog) is a staple to the business I call Profitable Sports Gaming. 

I released 118 (half-unit or one unit only) UFC positions over the course 2017 (444 total fights). 

2017 results:  54-64 (45.76%), +15.78 total units, ROI 14.18% (average price per release +148)

My philosophy for profitability in betting the UFC involves employing three fundamentals: comprehensive due diligence; supreme selectivity and regular (public) money management. 

John Crouch, Owner of the MMALab in Glendale, AZ. and former Gracie Academy teaching instructor in an article titled, Technique Talk* says it well when asked what were MMA fighter’s biggest improvements during 2017, “Martial arts and fighting, and pretty much life, comes down to good fundamentals. That's my opinion. I learned good fundamentals where I came from and all great coaches are good fundamentalists*. 

Professional gamblers strive to uncover value in each investment and regard acquiring price advantage over the closing line as critically important.  I work tirelessly to obtain that advantage and will look forward to sharing my insights with Point spread weekly readers.  Investing in underdogs and striving to reach the 50%-win rate is the goal each year so let’s see how 2018 unfolds. 

Miocic +165 vs. Ngannou -190

Stipe Miocic is going to defend his Heavyweight title and shows up to Boston Saturday as the underdog.  His challenger, Francis Ngannou is a monstrously muscled destroyer who employs profuse punching power, stupendous strength and complete confidence in his ability to unplug anyone he pops on the point.  Ngannou has six fights in his just over two years since he joined the UFC and has finished each opponent.  He seems destined to be a star in the UFC and his rapid rise to the height of the division can be explained by his impressive physique, his sensational knockout power and the general lack of talent in the HW division.   But with all that said, we do have reservation about this spot for an inexperienced and more importantly untested Francis Ngannou who’s not been taken into the third round of a UFC fight.  Other than a very young Curtis Blaydes, Ngannou has been set up with perfectly picked pugilists who have acquiesced by engaging with him on the feet without any threat of the take down or even any attempt to stick and move to make the monster utilize energy to try to take him deep into a fight and test his will.  Ngannou at this point in his development is quite one dimensional though that dimension has been effective based on his athleticism, raw power and his opponent’s willingness to stand there with him.  He’s winning by utilizing pure power only and has not been forced to the floor to fight nor has he been chipped yet on the chin.  While explosive early Ngannou’s not particularly quick and he throws as Angelo Dundee would say, ‘Sunday shots’ (because you can see the punches coming from last Sunday).  In my judgement, Ngannou is susceptible to an experienced fighter who can employ defensive tactics, constant movement and precision striking with some wrestling folded in to sap the savage of his strength. The plan must be to take Ngannou deep into a fight to test his conditioning and especially his chin for the man has yet to be busted on the beak.  We feel Miocic or perhaps even a healthy Cain Velasquez are the only Heavyweights capable of presenting a plan that can pose problems for the Predator.

Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic is an underdog in the third defense of his title.  The Champ is a firefighter from Cleveland whose fight arsenal is complete with athleticism, precision punching, power, effective movement and conditioning.  He has the strength and size to stand up to Ngannou, he’s well more experienced than the challenger and has been in the Octagon with the most powerful punchers in the game.  Miocic possesses a complete fight arsenal and must execute a plan to make the monster chase him, he must pump a steady, straight, stinging jab in Ngannou’s face while utilizing movement which hopefully results in Ngannou having to utilize energy to chase, engage and battle.  Miocic must use movement and precision punches to force the power puncher into becoming anxious to engage and therefore render the beast somewhat vulnerable as he forges his way toward Miocic to throw down.  It’s much easier to take an opponent down if said opponent is incoming as it contributes to leverage.  If Miocic can execute then perhaps the challenger gets a bit careless on his way into engagement which may allow Miocic to manage the monster to the mat.  Again, constant movement, accumulated precision punching and eventual take downs are one effective way to battle this beast.  Miocic is well trained and has the support of a champion.  Miocic opened +130 and is now +165.  As in many sporting events the wave of betting action usually shows on the day of the event. 

I like the direction this line is moving and will jump if there is even a penny of price regression but until then I advise patience for the ‘recency theory’ is never more applicable than in the fight game and Ngannou’s demolition of Overeem will have the public picking the Predator.

Miocic +165 or better                    Fight starts Round 2 -105 (added Saturday 1-20-18)

One note: It’s important to understand that I write these on Mondays each week and UFC events occur mostly on the following Saturday.  Therefore, at times we may ask readers to understand that prices and circumstances may change during the week.  Updated fight information and UFC Insight is available to all at the GambLou.com webpage.  We post all fight releases on the morning of the fights and look forward to sharing our Mixed Martial Arts passion with you here at Point Spread Weekly.

*Article written by Luke Thomas MMA Fighting.com entitled: “Technique Talk: Experts discuss biggest areas of evolution in MMA in 2017”

UFC 220 other releases

Almeida -105 vs. Font -105

Font’s a fighter who’ll come right out and get banging.  He’s got power good range and a solid chin. I believe this fight is going to be a more savage stand-up tussle than chess match which favors Font only for the first four minutes or so.  Almeida who is a consummate slow starter is the younger, more athletic man who’s still improving at the age of 26 while Font (30) is a middle of the division talented fighter trying to step up.  The Brazilian opened -175 and has been in with the top of the Division only losing to Garbrandt and Riviera, two World Class Mixed martial artists.  Almeida and Font will trade but we feel it will Be Almeida who survives this striking affair.

Almeida -105

Davis -135 vs. Bochniak +125

Davis the bigger, longer, younger striker in the cage tonight against a local fighter in Bochniak that has desperation as his motivator for his results have been poor against dubious competition to this point in his UFC run.  This release is a fade of Bochniak who must try to get this fight to the floor to have any chance to win for in the judgement of we here at GambLou.com world HQ Bochniak will feed himself to Davis as Bochniak must find his way inside the Davis reach to make this his fight.  Meanwhile, the high paced, ill-intentioned Davis is going to try to bop Bochniak on the beak on his way in.  Pace, power and pressure are keys to Davis getting his hand raised here.   

Davis -135 (half)

Razak Alhassan -180 vs. Homasi +170

The first fight these two engaged in was stopped by mistake just this past December (Razak Alhassan was awarded a TKO late in round 1 on an unusual looking slip that was mistaken by the Ref as a shut off shot).  In that fight R-A threw everything he had at Homasi who at times was stunned yet forged his way forward into the fracas with the hope of trying to grind the gargantuan swinging Ghanan down and gain control of the fight.  This was beginning to occur when in an exchange the fight was suddenly stopped (no disagreement with stoppage as the way Homasi slipped is a textbook look for Ref to step in).  Razak Hassan’s reaction was that of almost disbelieve coupled with relief and joy. Tonight, this rematch comes down to fight IQ in my estimation for if Razak Hassan goes out as poorly paced as he did in December then he best take Homasi out early. Homasi showed great toughness, grit and determination in December and his camp knows the way to earn this win is to grind the Ghanan down over time then get on top to reign supreme.  Homasi has been hit on the head and put out in his past and Razak Hassan tried to light him up last out. He has power, but does he have the pace and a plan?

Homasi +175 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Announcment - 1/16/2018

Welcome to Money Morning gaming Enthusiasts.

 We have exciting news as we have been enlisted by the outstanding professionals at VSiN to contribute fight fodder for the UFC on their weekly publication “Point Spread Weekly” commencing this week.  This is a role we have strived to achieve for some time.  This announcement coincides with another announcement that we will immediately return to a role of encourager, advisor and mentor to any Enthusiasts looking to hone their gaming skills.  Therefore we will no longer be charging fees for our work in the UFC. 

We found it less than satisfying charging for our work these last couple of years.  The money earned was nice but we felt we lost some integrity in the charging of releases honestly.  We will move ahead into 2018 submitting all our material free of charge knowing that the dedication we have to profit from the ‘Makers is unchanged and we’ll display to readers of GambLou.com  and VSiN’s periodical that our ways and means in the pursuit of Profitable Sports Gaming are open for any to review and make comment upon.

UFC

In the UFC we pulled a hammy and used two chalks in one parlay and we managed to lose them both.  This is why we rarely use chalk and hardly ever play parlays (almost never, not never ever).   We start the 2018 campaign 0-1 yet we feel confident that our approach to Profitable Sports Gaming will allow us to overcome that 1 unit loss quite efficiently. 

More coming in 2018 by way of Profitable Sports Gaming and by all means if you want an early look at UFC 220 get to VSiN and obtain the “Point Spread Weekly” publication to view our early angles for UFC 220.  The title of our column will be “Insight the Octagon”

NFL

NFL Divisional weekend 2-2

In the NFL we realized a 2-2 week with an Open Teaser in the balance (Vikings +2 with an open end).  We’ll update that result after this weekend’s action.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 124 Choi vs. Stevens: Submissions in Soulard - 1/14/2018

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC fight night 124 the first UFC card of 2018. As always we’ll remain focused on profitability as opposed to action for first and foremost we conduct ourselves with our singular point of focus being profitability.  This is business.  This fight card from St. Louis has some interesting fights but few mangy mutts we really feel comfortable with.  In fact we feel the two best value positions lie in a couple of moderately priced favorites.  With that in mind we’ll begin the year with one release.  Remember Enthusiasts, it’s about the bottom line not ‘action’. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in our “Money Morning’ report.  Updated results for all sporting events we work are available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Johnson -180 vs. Elkins +170

This is a fight we released earlier this week (Johnson -150) but since midweek the price has escalated. Elkins is a tough, gritty wrestling based grinder who will try to crowd and smother Johnson to try to make this an ugly clasping grappling grind designed to eventually sap Johnson of his speed and quickness.  Johnson wants this on the feet where he may utilize his athleticism, precision punching, speed and skill to piece the plodder to a pulp.  This fight’s about MJ keeping control of distance where he’ll own advantage.  If Elkins can work Johnson into the body lock, force him to the fence and work to wear Johnson down past the first seven minutes of this fight then he could find a way to get his hand raised.  We feel Johnson is clearly the deserving favorite and that tonight father time begins to show his effects on Elkins.

Johnson -180

Choi -165 vs. Stevens +150

This line has held steady most of the week.  Choi is the younger, faster, more explosive fighter but in past fights has shown he lacks defensive acumen and once he gets punched on the point he throws the plan aside and the brawling begins.  When this happened in his last fight against Cub Swanson he was able to survive to a decision loss because Cub is shy on pure power but if he allows Lil Heathen to hammer him like he did Cub then the super boy will stumble.  Stevens will give away advantages in speed and precision striking but he sports tremendous drive, grit, cardio and he possesses power striking with both hands and kicks.  If Choi can keep his head, control distance (much like Michael Johnson must) utilize IQ to out strike Stevens utilizing speed and skill then this fight is his for we believe the time away has allowed the twenty six year old to evolve and improve as opposed to a cat in Stevens who has displayed some inconsistency in past performances.  If Choi makes one mistake and reverts to the toe to toe warfare that has gotten him this far then we feel Lil Heathen has every chance.  What tilts the decision for us is the age difference here as 62% of the time the fighter who is at least five years younger than their opponent gets their hand raised.

Choi -165

Rarely do we find ourselves on the chalk side but current pricing on Johnson does not allow today’s readers to catch -150. That being the case the only release for this fight card will be a parlay.

Choi -165/Johnson -180:   +155

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Money Morning: NFL & UFC Profitability 2017 - 1/8/2018

Welcome to 2018 gaming Enthusiasts.  Today we’ll provide our final 2018 numbers for the NFL and then UFC. 

Regular accounting is required inside of any profitable business entity and we here at GambLou.com World HQ are running a business here as opposed to tapping tilts on twitter then yapping when/if we win and going dark when losses amass.  Profitable Sports Gaming is a mindset, a commitment to excellence and a lifelong journey for in this racket (as the National Treasure Mr. Jimmy Vaccaro calls it) if one applies themselves appropriately the learning never stops.

-Let’s Account-

NFL 2017

Wildcard Weekend produced profit as we realized a 2-1 result.  The Titans and Panthers did their jobs while our teaser (Rams to Saints) fell short on the Ram side. Overall results for the NFL to date:

43-34   55.85%   9.0 units earned   11.08% ROI

We’re experiencing one of the most arduous NFL seasons in some time but there remain a few short weeks and we are hitting a profitable pace as we near the finish of the campaign.  We pay for hooks and scour for value so realize that not each release we provide is -110 as we play moneyline wagers and avoid the key number of 3 with vigor!

2017 UFC 

At the start of the year we proclaimed that in 2017 our focus was to greatly reduce the number of wagers we released to become more accurate and therefore profitable.  Here are the line results for 2016 and 2017.

2016:  74-109    40.44%     7.56 units earned      4.86% ROI

2017:  54-64      45.76%    15.78 units earned    14.18% ROI

Clearly reducing selections resulted in higher win percentages in ’17 as we went from 183 releases in 2016 to 118 in 2017 (a reduction of 65 releases or roughly a third!) clearly reducing our selections that aggressively resulted in a better than 5% increase in win rate which greatly enhances profitability when one is hound hunting!

Our average price on winners comes out similarly as last year at +147 so our prices were unaffected by the reduction in releases.  Lastly Profitability, (what we do this for) was greatly enhanced by the reduction tactic as we netted better than double the dollars we earned in 2016 and added 9.5% to our ROI. 

On to 2018 where we will continue to provide dynamic dog delivery in the UFC while producing profitability over the course of the year.  We’ve always been in this for the long term (it’s business).

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 219 Cyborg vs. Holm: Sin City Submissions - 12/30/2017

 

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the UFC’s last fight card of 2017.  We’ll regard ‘17 the year of the Chalk for Favorites into this last card of the year stand 288-123-23 (66%).  Those that read us often understand that we scorn the market for betting value though we’re known to prefer mangy unwanted underdogs.  Let’s look at a couple of value ridden canines we feel are poised to perform at their best tonight.  We work diligently to uncover live fighters who are prepared to offer their top effort coupled with the fact that they offer betting value.  Here’s one of the releases we have posted on today's UFC slate.  Best of Luck and Happy New Year to all.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Cyborg -345 vs. Holm +315

Title fight and Holly Holm a dynamic counter striking boxing based combatant shows up like a true professional to take on a fighter unequaled in her arena and only eclipsed in MMA dominance by Demetrius Johnson.  Cyborg is mighty, ferocious, well rounded and unequaled in today’s woman’s MMA.  Cyborg much like Nurmagomedov will want to make this fight from inside a closet (typical slang is ‘inside a phone booth’ but today’s readers hardly know what that is LOL). Anyway, Cyborg has the pure power, the striking precision and the ground capability to earn the favorite’s role here and she can dominate via any of those forms.  Holly will need to use her conditioning and legs to control distance and kick, pick and peck the relentless pursuer from every angle as Cyborg strives to get inside to work.  Holly will need Cyborg to eventually become frustrated and use poor judgement in trying to get inside of Holm’s distance control to punish the power puncher.  We feel Holm will show well in this spot and is made to dish Cyborg some situation.  That said we do feel Cyborg finds a way.  Our angle in this fight comes again from the Props for we do feel this fight gets to the Championship rounds….

Cyborg/Holm starts Rd. 4 +100

Calvillo -230 vs. Esparza +210

This is our PhD. In MMA fight.  Calvillo, at thirty is a talented, raw up and comer from the Alpha Male gym.  She has decent wrestling, BJJ but her big advantage over the shorter Esparza is standing and she’ll want the fight to remain on the feet.  Esparza, a dynamic wrestling based ex-Champion has had a long road to return to the top of this division for her stand -up lacked and she was a bit too one dimensional earlier in her career.  In this fight Calvillo will look to hold advantage by making this a striking affair while Carla will want to get inside, grab ahold of the longer fighter and drag her down to the dirt to sap her strength, take top control and try to dominate the fight by making it a grind on the ground.  We feel Esparza’s wrestling and experience provide her advantage. This will be a close split decision type fight, so we look to the Props for our angle in this fight

Esparza pts. Handicap +3.5 +100

Condit -155 vs. Magny +145

Condit’s been in the retirement game for over a year now and feels the need to return.  He believes he’s improved his BJJ skills since he was shish Ka-bob’ed a year a go by Maia and feels the fire is back and he’s ready to display said new skills.  Condit was a world class fighting competitor and had a most impressive run but his lack of ground skills namely poor take down defense presented issues for him when he fought skilled wrestlers/BJJ fighters.  He’s a stand-up fighter with lethal striking and huge heart.  We believe however that Condit has pondered and executed retirement for a reason and coming out to face a most dangerous wrestling based opponent in Neil Magny seems unwise.  Magny will have dynamic size and reach advantages though he’ll need to utilize those on the feet only long enough to be able to drag Carlos into the clinch or down to the canvass for a crawl n brawl.  Where this fight takes place is a key factor in who’s arm gets raised tonight.  Magny has the skills and ability to get this fight down and make it ugly where he can dominate an old tired saddle.

Magny +145

Nicolau -220 vs. Smolka +200

Nicolau is the improving fighter off a layoff due to ‘penalty’.  He’s got the pure stand up advantage and he’ll dominate if this stays on the feet.  Smolka is a fighter on the learn and though his last three results have been disappointing he’s seemingly addressed issues, is aware of his dubious position in the organization and sports substantial physical advantages in this fight.  Smolka, who does have a wrestling advantage on the ground in this match-up must work to eventually smother the striker, force this into a physical flop on the floor and take his control.  He opened +115 and is now a betting value at current pricing.

Smolka +200 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Doggie Deposits...in dollars! - 12/18/2017

Welcome profiteer’s to Money Morning.  Each week we scrutinize and publish our results for this business we call Profitable Sports Gaming in order to fulfill the weekly money management portion of our profit plan.  We also display actual results to prove that business is like any other…..it requires time, energy, focus and commitment. We publish when we win, when we tie and on the occasions where we miss we publish those results also.  Business transparency and truthfulness is easy if one puts in the Due Diligence and understands that this racket is a marathon not a sprint!   Just look around the professional handicapper arena and try to find any individuals publishing (with regularly scheduled reports) their results.  Correct, there are none which is why we go the extra mile to publish the results of this business we call Profitable Sports Gaming.  We’re confident and successful because we “plan our work and work our plan”.  After all its business!

NFL

We exploded yesterday in the NFL and it was about time.  We’d been wallowing in futility in the NFL for the last several weeks while chalk choked the hell out of the Makers and GambLou.com clients as well!  Correction was due and a portion of the correction started this past weekend as we realized a 5-1 NFL result.

NFL 2017:  38-32      54%      +6.1u       +8.10 ROI

UFC

We’ve found our footwork in the fight game also having realized a 3-2 +1.5u result with this weekend’s UFC card.  To date then...

2017 UFC:   51-62   45.13%   +13.83u    +13.02% ROI

Due diligence, Selectivity and Money Management,  refine these to the utmost, remain focused on your profession and Profitable Sports Gaming can be realized….but it takes time, effort and commitment.  do you have what it takes?

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC fox 26 Lawler vs. Dos Anjos: Canadian Mount...ies - 12/16/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the second to last UFC fight card of 2017. 

We’re tickled to see time tick away on ’17 as we have a distaste for the flavor of fanciful Favorites as Fav’s are firing at a 66.4% clip this past year running a breezy 281-119-23.  The numbers speak for themselves, and those chalk results reinforce to us that we must remain selective and hone in on fighters we feel are prepared to offer their best effort on fight night.  In tonight’s card, here are the mutts we find potentially mangy in Manitoba.  We have five releases for tonight's card and they're avaialble for a modest fee.  If we lay and egg all clients will get thier fee returned which is a policy we employ for all fight cards. 'Swing it Easy'

Here's our free release for UFC Fox 26

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Dos Anjos -115 vs. Lawler +105

We released Lawler +110 yesterday soon after the weigh-ins.  This is another line that has flipped with Lawler opening -155.  We’re always learning in this racket and tonight we’ll surely learn something for we believe the flow of hay on RDA is misplaced.  Lawler is the much larger man with advantage in power, experience, chin and all-day cardio.  While RDA has looked magnificent in the Welterweight division since he moved up from 155  the fact remains that he’ll be giving away advantage in height and length (both legs and arms) against a competent striker with dynamic wrestling ability and take down defense. 

Those feeling Robbie has lost his edge may be correct, but he has not shown that to be the case.  In fact, we believe quite the opposite that RDA is made for Robbie and that he’ll come forward to  press Lawler and smother him which is a plan of attack Lawler has defended in many prior victims.  Lawler at plus money is a value

Lawler +110

Ponzinibbio -165 vs. Perry +155

Potentially a pure punch fest between Ponzi and Perry here makes us all anticipate this one.  Perry is regarded by we at GambLou World HQ as a barroom brawler that is learning the mixed martial arts game and for that reason we view him as a reasonable underdog in this spot.  Ponzi has a more developed mixed martial arts arsenal in every category (except for pure power punching and the capacity of the chin) and he’ll surely embrace the plan laid out earlier by Alan Jouban when he painted Perry from distance and forced the brawler to eat loads of leather.  Perry is tough and determined but must fight from inside the pocket to mask his lack of footwork and tactic.  The cat and mouse in this match-up lies in whether Perry can get Ponzi to brawl while the Brazilian will need to use his legs and keep distance which will allow him to batter the bull on his way inside to brawl.  We like Ponzi here as the more complete fighter, but we do recognize Perry’s potential power, so we must work to minimize exposure here.  We see the winner of this fight stopping the opponent, so we’ll press down the price on Ponzi in this fashion

Ponzinibbio  pts. Handicap -3.5 -120  

Cirkunov -160 vs. Teixeira +150

We believed the original line set for this fight was correct with Glover -155 based on his experience, body of work, boxing ability and floor capability.  Teixeira has been in wars and is 37 years of age, but we feel he is still a top five fighter in the division.  Cirkunov is raw, overly hyped and in for a huge test tonight for he steps way up in class off a brutal early KO in his last outing.  Cirkunov has mucho to prove to himself coming off that KO while Glover is aware that if he simply takes this kid down for a maul on the mat he can effectively drain him of his energy and then eventually paint him into submission via ground and pound, wrestling or striking.  This fight will demonstrate that Cirkunov is not quite ready and Glover is not quite gone.

Teixeira +150

LaPrise -145 vs. Bofando +135

After Bofando’s last performance we chiseled a ‘fade’ in our memory bank moving forward into future match-ups based on his mediocre level of competition and the raw manner which he fought.  While fast, athletic and powerful he is also raw and untested by firm competition.  He steps up into at least firm competition when he tangles with LaPrise a Canadian fighter who is more experienced, more precise in striking and offers a solid ground game which in our view we will witness tonight.   LaPrise will need to weather the furious onslaught that the banger Bofando will bring but once these two get into the meat of the fight we’ll see that the prey is Bofando.

LaPrise -145

Di Chirico -120 vs. Bamgbose +110

These fighters have underachieved to this point.  Tonight, we feel it is Di Chirico whose hand get raised based on his more developed fight arsenal both offensively and defensively.  Bamgbose has a four-minute window where he can inflict serious damage before he slows to a crawl and loses the slim amount of precision punching he possesses.   Provided the taller, younger Italian kid can weather that early storm we feel he’ll eventually immerse the imposter with elbows and perhaps even finish Bamgbose.  Bamgbose needs more time.

Di Chirico -120 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Plan your work then Work your plan - 12/11/2017

Each Monday we publicize the previous week’s receipts which are tabulated to monitor our profitability.  All business realizing any success must regulate monetary output, maximize profitability and account for all income.  Profitable Sports Gaming is strictly business to us so we utilize Monday’s to publicly account for results and track profit to the penny.

-Let’s Account-

UFC

We realized a 2-2 +1.3u result in the UFC Saturday.  After a dismal result the week previous it was important to get back to the bottom line with the fights.

Favorites were only 6-5-2 for FN 123 bringing their total for 2017 to 281-119-23 (66.4%).

GambLou 2017:  48-60  44.44%   +12.33 units +12.18 ROI

While these numbers are weaker than in past years we’ve never really tracked Chalk as realizing this form of dominance so while off we will do what we do, dance with dynamic dogs and while scarce in 2017 we do feel there is a correction in canines coming.  Hello 2018.

NFL Week 14:

3-2 +.8u

We must say that late October and November we challenging months for NFL profitability.  We work diligently to track the public and side with the Makers as a whole.  While often successful in that positioning we deal with results similar to what the House realizes though we do not wager on each and every game.  Good weeks for the public often mean an off week here at GambLou.com World HQ and when the public gets blistered we bluster! 

Suffice it to say that we believe there are some good times ahead for contrarian gaming as we enter bowl season, the final weeks of the NFL and their playoffs!

We perform dynamic Due Diligence, We remain supremely Selective and we manage our Profitability to the penny.  These three foundations are the fulcrum to our success.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN123 Swanson vs. Ortega: Kimura's from Cali - 12/9/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to one the few remaining UFC fight cards for this year.  We here at GambLou HQ are elated that the ’17 tour is about to close for the hordes of fight Fav fanciers have feasted on we disappointed dog dwellers. 

To date (based on our tracking of closing lines) Favorites in the UFC 2017 as 275-114-21 (67%) which is enough to make a grown man yelp.  That said, we believe in our process and while the year has not been banner it has been profitable, so we’ll remain committed to dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and practice precision Money Management for those comprise the fulcrum for Profitable Sports Gaming

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Ramos -410 vs. Gruetzemacher +370

Respect the bookmaker is one of the first lessons one must incorporate when competing with said bookmaker.  Ramos opened a fair Fav at -180 and has been bombed by chalk chasers up to -410.  While Ramos is talented we feel his abilities can wane after a furious five minutes so if Gruetz can weather the early storm and allow his grinding style to kick in his complete cardio does put him in position to pull the rug out from Ramos. ‘Swing it Easy’

Gruetzemacher +370 (half)

Alcantara -190 vs. Perez +175

We believe Alcantara is at the end of a great career and while he looked superb in his submission of Luke Sanders last out it is our belief that he drew to a five while hitting on 16 when he won that fight.  Our reasons for that are the topic of another discussion but we feel Iuri is susceptible to a pressing, forward moving, space eliminating, grinding, wrestling based fighter and that is exactly what Perez is.  Perez is going to complete what Sanders started but didn’t finish.

Perez (Alejandro) +175

Moraes -140 vs. Sterling +130

Here’s the one fight we released early this week.  Moraes is the Brazilian fighter but will want this fight to be a stand-up affair while the American, a wrestling based fighter will absolutely need to get this fight to the mat for his advantage is in the ugly mangy mauling.  This fight sets up as Moraes being a tough hombre early but Sterling’s speed, athleticism and improving strike game should allow him to slow the slugger over time and eventually get this fight into the clasp.  Clasp is one important step for a muck on the mat where Sterling’s size and strength should provide him ample advantage.  Sterling’s been in with tough, strong dynamic fighters and has proven to be a worthy rising talent.  Moraes is at least up to the level of fighter Sterling’s faces so it will take Aljo’s top effort to get his hand raised.  Sterling’s opportunity to prove he is a contender at Featherweight is tonight.

Sterling +130

Swanson -115 vs. Ortega +105

On our appearance this week with Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) on the Fantasy Sports Network (@FNTSYSportsnet) we discussed Ortega vs. Swanson and advised waiting to move on the then -120 for we believed cash on Cub would allow the line (then to gain value….and value it did gain.  Ortega at the time of this writing is +105 and we’ll gladly jump that price.  Swanson’s last war with Choi is a compelling reason we feel the younger, bigger, longer grappling based fighter on the improve is live.  Swanson will require space for his stand up and while he will own a striking advantage it’s attrition that we feel will be the difference in this fight.  A five-round affair is the key for the Ortega plan will mandate that he make Cub effort for the first few rounds to take some of the strength from his legs then get this fight to the floor where Ortega will own tremendous advantage over Swanson and perhaps even finish the proud warrior.   Pass the torch?

Ortega +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 


UFC 218 Holloway vs. Aldo: Double leg from Detroit - 12/2/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 218.  We’re in December and racing down to the last handful of fight cards for 2017.  We’ll refer to ’17 as the year of the Chalk as to date (counting last night’s TUFF results) Chalk stands 265-111-21 which is a smooth 66.9%

Selectivity, a practice we preach ad nauseum along with appropriate Due Diligence have allowed us to realize a win rate in 2017 of 45.10% outperforming actual dog results this year....and we're not done for we see a few real ugly mutts on today's slate from the Motor City.  Here's one of the releases from our UFC 218 slate.  

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Cejudo -295 vs. Pettis +265

Cejudo has had mucho happen to him since the first time he was unable to meet Pettis in the Octagon (hand injury).  Pettis is the younger man, a striker who holds advantage in length/reach and through these last month’s took another fight (a dominating win over Moreno) and has carried himself with a confident composure that I feel is a tell for Sergio performing his best tonight against a fighter in Cejudo that will own wrestling advantage yet chooses to rarely use such advantage in his fights.  Cejudo best get this to the ground because if he does not we here at GambLou World HQ believe Sergio could piece Henry up in a stand-up affair. 'Swing it Easy'

Pettis +265 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN122 Bisping vs. Gastelum: Antagonism in Asia - 11/24/2017

Welcome UFC fight Enthusiasts to the UFC’s premier appearance in China.  In many of these fights we’ll witness debuting Chinese (and an Indian) fighters.  Our conservative nature is such that rather than invest in fighters we know little about we’ll choose to observe these fights and gather data for future profit opportunity.  We have targeted a couple of matchups we feel offer gaming value and present us with a fighter in position to post a top effort. 

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Mazany +125 vs. Wu -145

Wu sports length and is younger but at 21 her youth may give way to inexperience.  Wu’s competition level in her short career has been subpar even if we judge it in a regional perspective.  Mazany trains at X Couture, she was beaten by Sarah McMann who is a beast (no loss of respect there) and has also been in the Octagon against Juliana Pena. Mazany opened -245 and is now the mutt.  I know the masses are wonderstruck over Wu, but I am not a believer.  We’ll snag the value with the more complete experienced fighter.  Never underestimate the bookmaker.

Mazany +125 (half)

Xiaonan -135 vs. Curran +125

In my estimation this is a set up fight.  Curran who arrives with an extremely limited skill set has been shipped in here to be lamb to the debuting Chinese fighter.  Remember fans that the UFC is full throttle into a campaign designed to expose the sport to each corner of the world which will build its market and revenues.  The best way to keep the fire going is to highlight the local fighters and allow them to realize success in front of their home Countrymen which sews the seeds of MMA to the millions.  In our estimation we’ll see the local Chinese fighters get a chance at recognition and success rather than being overwhelmed by athletes outside of their Country.  In the end this is good for the UFC’s business.

Xiaonan -135

Caceres -135 vs. Guan +125

Caceres is the more experienced fighter by far.  He’ll sport advantage in quickness, speed and overall fight ability.  Caceres’ issues in the past center around his chin and his propensity to rely on his God given talents to out slick opponents not on his level of athleticism.  In doing so, He drops his hands and uses dynamic movement to slip, slide and shimmy his way out of threat.  Guan is a fighter who is more stoic in approach and well less improvisional than Caceres.  His competition has been regional and not the level of competition Alex has faced but we do recognize one name on his past record.  Shane Young.  Shane Young is the fighter last week who took a fight with Alex Volkanowski on short notice and (to me) showed himself to be quite a solid stand-up fighter.  Anyway, Guan beat Young which is impressive to say the least.  To us this fight comes down to whether Guan can keep the stand-up pressure on Alex and make him back up and defend strikes.  If Caceres can get this to the floor he has advantage but Guan at 31 does have ten years of experience (albeit regional) behind him.  We feel the local will bring his best effort in this UFC debut and if this does go to the scorecards Caceres best whitewash Guan otherwise we could get a little taste of…. Chinese cooking.

Guan +130

Jingliang -190 vs. Ottow +180

Pressure breaks pipes. 

Jingliang has carried the flag for Chinese mixed martial arts for years and has gone it almost alone and with total dignity. On fight day he’ll surely take pride from what he has helped build in China for the local fighters interested in the MMA’s and especially the UFC.  In this co-main event he not only fights a capable opponent, he also fights a most suitable and ominous adversary in our estimation, distraction.  Jingliang has should take great pride in being the pioneer of world class MMA in his Country and in the UFC’s first visit to China let’s not overlook the pressure that falls on Jingliang here.  Not only must he try to beat his opponent but by his experience and position he’ll knowingly or not also serve as mentor to the local fighters, trainers, media etc.  It’s Jingliang’s camp, circle of professionals and contacts that are fielding the logistical/navigational issues for this most important event in Shanghai.  Remember too people this is Mainland China and the Chinese can be Nationalistic and at least proud…especially proud of their history and capability in the world’s oldest form of competition, Fighting.

So, beside the periphery distractions just discussed there’s the opponent for Jingliang, Zak Ottow.  Ottow will present a special challenge to Jingliang because he sports a solid wrestling background and can surely strike.  While both combatants are capable on the floor and stand-up it is Ottow who in past fights has shown an ability to fight a full fifteen minutes without noticeably slowing.  Jingliang puts mucho into his punches which tends to affect his cardio later in fights.  We believe fighting in this situation is not ideal for Jingliang and that the combination of he and his camp playing host to this card coupled with the capability of opponent is a poor combination.  Ottow opened +130 and is now +180. We suggest readers continue to watch this in the hope that this one continues to swell as the wee hours of Saturday AM (fight time here in the PST) arrive.

Ottow +180 (or better)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming