Welcome fight Enthusiasts to one of the most complete and exciting fight cards in recent UFC history. This card from New York City is loaded with world class fighters, great matchups and profuse profit opportunity. We scour UFC cards for live dogs that can deliver and we take it as our role to discover those live performers and release them to Clients with profitability being our single point of focus.
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
Alvarez +100 vs. McGregor -120
Eddie Alvarez is a UFC Champion, something he has focused on his whole fight career and he took the title in sensational fashion by KO’ing RDA in the first round of their recent title fight. Alvarez’s MMA repertoire is complete with depth of competition, an ultimate toughness and the ability to dominate anywhere the fight goes. There’s little doubt that Eddie has the experience here as well a supreme confidence after just hoisting the UFC Lightweight belt but what he’s strived so diligently to attain may well be the roadmap for his defeat tonight. We must consider the physical affects that Alvarez has endured getting to the pinnacle of the UFC. Alvarez last five years have seen him in tremendous battles fighting Michael Chandler twice and Patricky Freire in exhausting physically draining wars as well split decision wins over Gil Melendez and Showtime Pettis before finally exalting in his KO of RDA. It's been our view that fighters have a difficult time enduring one war after another most especially against the competition of today's UFC and Eddie has survived and dominated in these wars for five straight years. In almost each of these previous fights Eddie has had his bell rung only to display great heart and will in order to persevere and get his hand raised after exhaustive grueling and grinding. Eddie wants in the Octagon badly with McGregor, a fighter he feels he can surely dominate but this may not be the best frame of mind to tote to the Octagon against a killer like McGregor. This is a very poor matchup for Eddie based on what we feel McGregor is able to accomplish with appropriate preparation.
It’s our opinion that Conor McGregor is a rare generational talent in the fight game. With time to prepare and the available funds to bring in any form of fighter, coach , nutritionist or other expert mentor into camp for his fights, no one is more prepared than McGregor for an opponent come fight night. Conor will be the taller, larger, longer man tonight which will serve him well after just experiencing two fights with a larger man in Nate Diaz. Conor’s training methods, his ability to control space and his lethal striking are going to be difficult for Eddie to navigate and we feel the more Conor keeps Eddie at range the more frustrated Eddie WILL get. When this happens the end will be very near for Conor’s power can shut Alvarez down and we feel this is exactly what will transpire.
Conor opened up -125 and early money pushed him up to -160 before Alvarez money came in these last couple days delivering to us a price on McGregor that I believe (unless he fights Cain Velasquez) that we will never see again. There’s great value on
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -415 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz+340
Two Polish fighters vie tonight for the Woman’s Straw weight title in MSG! How outstanding is that for those ladies as well as Poland! In our judgement this may be the most competitive fight on the card and may also be the most dynamic fight on the card.
Joanna is a straight striking killer and has mowed through the division thus far but she has undergone several emotional and wearing fights that eventually must begin to take their toll. While we recognize Joanna’s abilities we also feel able to recognize when a fighter is ripe and ready for a potential defeat and that’s exactly what we feel here tonight.
Karolina has been in the UFC less than a year but she has beaten her opponents all by decision…the most recent being Rose Namajunas who is a top four contender in the division. Karolina may lack power (as most lower class fighters do) but she makes up for it with output for she strikes at an unbelievable pace. When inside the pocket Karolina can utilize her clinch game and elbows which are weapons that can affect the longer taller Joanna. These two fought as amateurs in 2012 which is important as Joanna won by submission. One would think that the prior victory would be advantageous to Joanna but we feel exactly the opposite based on what we’ve seen from Joanna in the last several days leading up to the fight. Joanna has not been her cool and collected self (see the head butt of Karolina at the face offs a few days ago) as well at weigh-ins Joanna (a fighter that rarely talks or yaps to opponents) looked flustered and was pointing fingers and yapping at Karolina while it was Karolina who maintained cool, collected composure. These signs display to us that the pressure of this fight and the opponent are providing Joanna some consternation. Karolina is in a terrific spot here tonight. Joanna’s recent talk of children and retiring undefeated only serves as the cherry on top of the desert as we handicap this fight. While no one is siding with the challenger we feel compelled to fly against the grain. Karolina is live as hell here….
Karolina Points handicap +5.5 +160
Weidman -180 vs. Romero +170
Chris Weidman is one of the major forces to help deliver the UFC to New York and has worked tirelessly over the years to get the UFC into the stubborn State. He’s been earmarked for this card forever but we’re not sure that this is a very good spot for him. Weidman is coming off a neck surgery and while he’s been cleared to fight, his recent inactivity coupled with the fragile mental frame we believe he holds coming off of the Rockhold devastation are factors me must consider. Now let’s realize the many distractions of fighting at home in the Apple: ticket requests for family and friends; the interviews leading up to the fight; fighting in MSG as a home favorite and we have not even discussed his opponent yet, Yoel Romero.
Romero gives away some height and reach to Weidman as well age but the advantages Weidman has held over all of his opponents (except Rockhold) his wrestling will not present him advantage tonight for Romero is every bit the wrestler that Weidman is. Romero has developed an excellent striking arsenal and when he strikes he strikes hard. Romero at 39 years of age realizes acutely that this is his sole chance to get a shot for the title and will arrive to the garden tonight ready to give his absolute best effort. We speak often here about trying to determine which fighter is ready to fight their best and be the beneficiary of training, focus, timing and result…..we feel Yoel is going to be one tough hombre to cope with tonight.
(Released earlier this week +155, we liked Yoel +155 so we like him more at current pricing)
Nurmagomedov -305 vs. Johnson +275
As Angelo Dundee would chime, “Styles make fights” and this is our best example on today’s card. Nurmagomedov is, when active and in fight symmetry a complete wrecking ball for he is a wrestling/grappling/Sambo specialist and if he is able to grab his foe the foe will eventually go. That said, even at his best, Nurmagomedov’s kryptonite is a skilled, fit, athletic striker who can remain at distance, fire strikes and especially move. We just described Michael Johnson there. Further, Johnson has been actively fighting for years now. His dynamic KO of Poirier and solid train of fights prior to that delivers him into tonight’s fight brimming with confidence while Nurmagomedov has fought off constant knee issues and injury. Nurmagomedov’s inactivity plays a large part in our position here as his only fight since April of 2014 was a tepid showing against Darrell Horcher in April of this year…not a top contender by any means. Michal Johnson has been able to train for this fight with a singularity of focus for months now. He’s the kind of athlete that can dominate the plodding Russian on the feet and if he sticks to his plan we feel he’ll make the Russian look a mess with his ability to stick, move and pepper him with punches….and power punches at that! Johnson traditionally is a live dog and we believe strongly that he has absolutely no fear going into this fight. Johnson opened a +220 dog so we’ll gladly take the value with him tonight.
(Patience as this one seems to be climbing.. take every bit of value you can get)
Luque -115 vs. Muhammad +105
This is a great fight. In one corner we have Vicente Luque a young up and coming fighter who wants to force the fight to the floor in order to manipulate the opponent with his superior grappling/wresting/submission skills. Luque’s previous path to victory has been to utilize his striking to transition his way inside thus allowing him to grasp then maul the opponent to the mat for a submission. While his plan is sound his competition level has not been what we consider top flight as well he takes this fight on short notice. Belal Muhammad is a wily, grizzled veteran with deep experience, superior striking ability and guile. What Muhammad does rely on too much is his ability to take a bop to the beak yet he proved his mettle against Alan Jouban a few fight back. Though he lost that bout he showed tremendous ability to pressure Jouban in that fight and we feel Luque is just not ready for this type of stand up pressure. Muhammad has been in the UFC under a year but has shown us that he belongs and his depth of experience prior to arriving at the UFC level was sound. As long as he can keep this standing he’ll own advantage.
Profitable Sports Gaming