2018 College World Series: The greatest show on Dirt - 6/13/2018

6-22-18 7:30pm EST

Razorbacks +125

6-22-18 2pm EST

Mississippi State Bulldogs +280 (half)

6-21-18 7:15pm EST

wind howling from the North means it's behind the batter as opposed to in his teeth. 

Red Raiders +170

6-20-18 11:30am EST

Red Raiders Red Raiders +170

6-19-18 7:25pm EST

game cancelled. back 6/20

6-19-18 6:20pm EST

Weather tonight is calm, let’s hope they can get all three ballgames in today and catch up to the schedule. Razorbacks got the momentum and talent while the Red Raiders got past trip futility in Omaha and the long ball driving their run at a Championship.

Red Raiders +150

6-19-18 10:25am EST

It's difficult handicapping the dad gummed weather in omaha. Rain off and on all day. Wind right now is light but it could change. I do like the Heels again today and see them anywhere from -150 to -170. I took Heels -150 for a unit. Good Luck and let's hope they get at least this game in today.

6-17-18 1:10pm EST

Welcome to day two 2018 College World Series hardball Enthusiasts.

Today at TD Ameritrade the persistent plains wind is gusting from the south at 15-17mph which is directly into the hitter’s teeth in this ballpark.

Arkansas, Florida and Texas Tech are the odds-on contenders in this side of the bracket. Each are explosive teams with deep offenses but the Red Raiders, Gators and to a lesser extent Hogs all rely on the long ball to contribute to if not provide the bulk of their scoring. These wind conditions and the depth of the TD Ameritrade outfield will squelch offense for teams that rely on the home run and force runs to be earned/manufactured not bashed for. With today’s howling wolf wind, I place premium on a team’s ability to pitch, field, get on base and manufacture runs for in these games today, I see scoring as a premium.

If my judgement, today’s wind conditions will level the playing field greatly in game one between the Hogs and the Longhorns and convert this into a close, tightly contested small ball affair. As a matter of fact, it’s the ‘Horns that lead this bracket in sacrifice bunts, and stolen bases so they can’t ask for any better opportunity to win one for Coach Garrido than today.

Longhorns +170

Check later for any release on the later contest either here or via @Twitter.

Good Luck today to all and Happy Father’s Day to all of you Fathers out there.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome College Baseball Enthusiasts.

Here’s my breakdown for this year’s College World Series. This was also published Wednesday June13th on VSiN’s weekly publication, “Point Spread Weekly”. I’ve made minor adjustments to that article as when submitted the odds had not been released. I’ll use Westgate Las Vegas odds that were released as this article was published and therefore the same odds that were published in Wednesday’s column.

Play Ball

Similar to Hockey, it’s mandatory to understand the bracket set-up for the College World Series. The double elimination bracketed format greatly benefits any team that wins its first two games. Experience is also important as teams with recent CWS experience often thrive in their return trip into Omaha. As important as those factors are, gaining an understanding of each team’s strengths and weaknesses (based on recent play and season long statistics) and how those attributes apply to the ballpark in Omaha is critical. 

An important factor in uncovering value for CWS participants is gaining an understanding of how each team plays baseball. TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha is a cavernous stadium with a huge, deep outfield. The stadium sits low (right next to the Missouri river) and the wind (almost always gusting) blows right into the teeth of the hitter. Teams that earn their way to Omaha by playing home run derby ‘monster-ball’ often struggle as the TD Ameritrade ballpark is larger than the parks these teams have played in during their regular season.

The premium for success in Omaha is not based on the home run or slugging percentages rather teams that prove most effective in Omaha are rich in pitching, fielding, sacrificing runners over and hitting for percentage as opposed to power. Small ball is the theme for the College World Series simply put. Teams that competed in Omaha the previous year almost always gain advantage (Florida and OSU) in their return.

Along with experience , team ERA, on base percentage, fielding percentage, doubles hit and whether they are senior laden squads (especially on the pitching staff) must be handicapped for these are premiums when competing in the CWS.  This is a baseball tournament that will test a team’s completeness in all aspects of the game as opposed to being  a home run derby as this event once was considered back in the days of old Rosenblatt stadium. 

The most talented team may not always win the Championship in Omaha rather the team that is playing its best hardball at this time of the year can often rise up (see Coastal Carolina Chanticleer’s 2016) to win the Tourney.  The history of this tournament is laden with chalky front running teams, ace hurlers and top draft pick hitters arriving to Omaha and flailing, so I place a premium on team play rather than individual talent.

Bracket I

Florida +300, Arkansas +450, Texas Tech +1000, Texas +800

I have prioritized each team based on my handicapping (as of this writing the lines have not been issued) of each squad. I regard this side of the bracket to be dangerously competitive as each team is ranked in the top twenty-five (D1baseball.com top twenty-five, 5-21-18).

Florida (ranked #1) has been to Omaha the last four years straight, seven of the last nine seasons and they arrive this year as defending Champions. They’re experienced, complete in every category I track and are a worthy favorite to defend their championship. The SEC has proven to be a baseball powerhouse so each of the three SEC teams in this year’s competition must be respected. Florida because of its depth and experience will be considered the favorite (slight) in this side of the bracket but they finished their last eighteen games nine and nine and really toiled in the regionals and super regional. Florida though talented may be in for a tough return to Omaha.

Fifth ranked Arkansas is a powerful, balanced baseball club that in previous CWS appearances struggled to score runs. Coached by ex-Nebraska coach Dave Van Horn these Razorbacks arrive this year with a dynamic offense, a deep pitching staff and poised to make noise. It also must be mentioned that the Omaha fans will be quick and voracious in their support of the ex-Husker hardball coach so look for the Hogs to be fan favorites. Arkansas went 1-2 vs. Florida in the regular season then defeated them in the SEC Tourney 8-2, they beat Texas Tech in their only contest this year as well were 2-0 vs. Texas. Arkansas has the lowest team ERA in the bracket, is on par with Florida in WHIP, they can field effectively, they hit for average and power and they arrive to Omaha as offensively explosive as any team in the field. Arkansas +450, though shy on experience in Omaha is a true threat to move into the final series and win the CWS.

Texas Tech returns for their third trip to Omaha in the last five years. They own a 1-4 record so the Red Raiders will arrive hungry and anxious to overcome past futility as no team wants to be tagged with the “two and BBQ” moniker, which means two games, two losses and a return trip home. Tech is a team I have diagnosed as a monster ball club for they are explosive offensively and can bash the ball in fact they in many ways rely on the home run which can be troublesome in the big O. Their offensive numbers do stand out yet they own the highest team ERA, WHIP and walks allowed and have the lowest fielding percentage of the four teams in their bracket. Tech will have to play its best ball to earn their way into the later stages of this tourney for this side of the bracket features four top fifteen ranked dynamic baseball teams. I have reservations about their potential in this side of the bracket.

Twelfth ranked Texas is playing its best ball at the end of the season and peaking at just the correct time. That said, they trail in almost every statistical category I regard as important. Texas has gained inspiration in that they’re playing in tribute of ex-coach Augie Garrido (a personal friend of mine from past CWS appearances) who decades ago took Texas from a languishing baseball club and delivered them back into the national prominence they had enjoyed for decades in college baseball when led by famous Texas coach Cliff Gustafson (head coach in Texas from 1968-1996). Texas faces a dominant Arkansas team in its first contest which is a tough draw (Arkansas scored 20 runs in a two game series against Texas earlier this year). In my judgement the Longhorns will be overmatched in this game and in this bracket.

Bracket II

Oregon State +350,  North Carolina +600,  Mississippi State +800,  Washington +1200

Washington, unranked in the top twenty-five, is making its first ever appearance in the College World Series. They overcame a deeply talented and experienced Cal State Fullerton bunch in extra innings in the Super Regionals to gain entrance to Omaha. The Huskies statistics place them competitively within the bracket but the emotional high from gaining entrance to the Tourney along with a draw against an ever dangerous SEC club provide me enough reservation to feel that Washington did all they could just to get here. I do not regard the Huskies as a threat on this side of the bracket.

Mississippi State, unranked in the top twenty-five could be a sleeper in this bracket. Though only 15-15 in SEC conference play they are peaking at the correct time and their competition level in the SEC forces me to regard this team as capable of besting the Huskies in an all-important game one. If the Dawgs can best the Huskies, they’ll find themselves in position to win one game against a ranked North Carolina or OSU squad to earn a most advantageous position in this bracket. MSU were +4000 prior to the Super Regionals and are now +800. Statistically speaking they fall well below the Beavers and Heels in most categories I feel are important but the fans from ‘Dogville’ Mississippi always show up in Omaha in force. The experienced they’ve gained from the stringent level of SEC competition plus their momentum from the regionals and SR’s make the Bulldogs a true flyer. MSU +800 (half).

Fifth ranked North Carolina has had previous CWS success but not in the last couple years. They arrive in Omaha with a team ERA of 3.60 though they do walk batters (4.07 per nine innings) which is a concern. Carolina scores 6.9 runs per game, they steal bases better than any in the bracket and they can slug BUT they struggle to hit for average (a premium in Omaha) and they don’t hit doubles nor do they effectively sacrifice bunt/hit. The Heels may be as deeply talented without true superstar players as there is in the field this year so they must be respected. That said the Heels will have their hands full in game one against OSU’s ace hurler Luke Heimlich and for this reason I’ll overlook them in the futures market but strongly consider them in game one. I say this because the Heels should be modest underdogs to the Beavers (+150/+165) as opposed to the +220 they are currently priced at for game one. Stay tuned on this one…

Third ranked Oregon State arrives to Omaha this year with a story. Last year, under circumstances they were unable to control their CWS team arrived in Omaha prepared to dominate but instead an old, ugly story arose which forced the team to compete without its best player, pitcher Luke Heimlich. The Beavers played solid baseball but the distraction of those headlines and loss of their ace was simply too much for the team to overcome in last year’s tourney though they did play well into the tournament.

Since overcoming that untimely situation last year this team has had a single minded focus to return to Omaha and complete the task of earning the team’s third CWS Championship.  Oregon State is fortunate enough to have two top pitching prospects in Heimlich 2.49 ERA and Fehmel 2.81 ERA. Their team ERA and WHIP is the lowest in the Tourney, they rarely walk batters. Their fielding percentage, on base percentage, and doubles hit lead all eight teams in the field. The Beavers have stolen the most bases of any team in the tourney this year, they lead in sacrifice bunts and own a second best on base percentage of .413. This team is complete, experienced and poised to represent a bracket that is substantially less able than is Bracket I. One note of importance, in 2006 and 2007 the beavers won the CWS final series both years against none other than North Carolina. Make no mistake that these two will be playing a deeply competitive hardball game Saturday.

When the future odds come out Oregon State along with Florida then Arkansas will be tagged as chalk for this tournament. Based on those perceived prices and pending my review of the odds once they break,  I’ll commit that Oregon State +350 is my release (at any price) to make it to the final series and complete what they began but failed to accomplish last year.

While the Beavers will be chalky when the future numbers are released, I expect the price on the MSU Bulldogs to be quite attractive. I may also suggest a small position on Mississippi State (added above). Because these future numbers have yet to be released (at the time of this deadline) I’ll invite all readers to check out my CWS updates available on twitter @GambLou all week long.

Check here for daily CWS releases.

The College World Series is…. The greatest show on dirt

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 225 Whittaker vs. Romero II: Rasslin' on Rush - 6/9/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 225 from Chicago, Ill. As usual my main event breakdown published this past Wednesday on VSiN’s Point Spread weekly is below for your review. I’ll update that column with comments about that main event and angles for other fights on this solid slate.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Originally published 6-6-18 Point Spread Weekly

Saturday’s UFC 225 comes to us from the Windy City Chicago, Illinois. After a few weeks of elimination fights, we’ll witness a five round Championship fight for the Middleweight title which is a rematch between current Champion Robert Whittaker and number one ranked challenger, Cuban Yoel Romero. Let’s break it down.

Robert Whittacker -235 vs. Yoel Romero +195 Middleweight (185lb) title fight

Last July 8th these two tussled for the Interim Middleweight title. The pricing on that fight at closing was Romero -145 vs. Whittaker +135. In a closely contested fight Whittaker won via decision but the story was how. He lost the first two rounds then persevered and outworked the deliberate Cuban in rounds three to five displaying superior conditioning, quickness and speed.

An important factor in that fight was that Whittaker sustained a knee injury caused by Romero in the early stages of round one in that fight. This injury and a staff-infection (now fully healed) were the reasons he’s been on the shelf for the last year. As mentioned, in the late rounds of that first fight Whittaker was the quicker, faster, stronger athlete and he was doing it with an injured medial left knee.

Whittaker’s resume is complete as he’s defeated every form of specialized MMA fighter from strikers to BJJ artists to wrestlers and in each confrontation he’s excelled. The Australian arrives to this fight with the more diverse skillset in that he specializes in Karate, Hapkido, Boxing, Wrestling and BJJ. Whittaker, at twenty-seven is in his prime fighting years as well he’ll hold a fourteen-year age advantage over Romero. It’s legit to question what affect the time off may have had on Whittaker by means of rust but in my judgement, young improving fighters when provided a year off can often benefit both physically and mentally. I believe this will be the case with Whittaker

Yoel Romero, the challenger is a physical freak of nature as he’s a muscularly sculpted, world-class wrestling-based fighter whose ferocity and athletic explosiveness can be dominating early but his aggressive fighting style tends to usurp him of his energy once the fight gets into the later rounds (as displayed in their first fight). Wrestling, grappling, and grinding for take downs against an agile, strong, athletic opponent can be extremely taxing and that’s exactly how Romero tired. At forty-one I see little way Romero is able to improve upon his cardio or any other aspect of his MMA arsenal. We know what he brings as does Whittaker.

Romero’s is most dangerous in this spot because he understands that this is arguably his last shot to hold a UFC title. In this fight I believe (and I think his people believe) that his best chance at winning is a risky one in that he’ll need to press Whittaker immediately, swarm him and to make this a wild swinging brawl under any circumstance. Pressing Whittaker to negate his punching power and defend those vicious front legs kicks is mandatory as Romero must be active if he is going to take the title. It was movement, jabs and leg kicks that allowed Whittaker to maintain distance in their first fight, so Romero must change it up and negate Whittaker’s space if he is to have any chance to gain the title.

These two know one another well but the only fighter capable of adding fight dimension to their repertoire since their last meeting is Whittaker. Whittaker possesses the skill, strength, explosiveness conditioning and athleticism to control the Romero increasingly as this fight wears on provided he’s diligent and patient in the early minutes and manages this fight into the later rounds. I believe Whittaker eventually overwhelms Romero as youth, speed, conditioning and explosiveness overtakes a proud but aged warrior.  

At current pricing of Whittaker -235, I find it difficult to actually lay a wager on Whittaker. He opened -150 so I’ve missed any value on the Aussie. My angle for this fight will be to shop the props as currently Whittaker ‘insider the distance’ (ITD) is +135. That will be my approach to this main event.

Saturday 6-9-18 update

So today all understand that Romero missed weight at this his second chance at the title. Romero is simply too large a man to compete at the weight class yet he counts on being able to cut profuse pounds like he was a man of Whittaker’s age which was a big error in judgement. Romero spent an extra two hours cutting .08lb. before  officially missing weight on his second and last attempt. TI know how I regard this distraction as well the hours of advantage Whittaker (one of the first to step on the scale at 8:49CST) had to re-hydrate and focus on the fight. You reader may interpret the issue as you will. Besides the ITD wager mentioned above I’ll add another wager using Whittaker (see below).

Benavidez -200 vs. Pettis +180

Joe B has been on the shelf so the question for him is whether he is rested or rusty. In my judgement, wrestlers rarely display rust for they do nothing but practice. Grinding daily at wrestling requires more grittiness and fortitude thatn anything else while striking based fighters are heavily reliant on timing, precision and countering which take time to refine in the heat of battle. Joe B at thirty-four is the older fighter but he’s the wresting-based fighter who’s been in with and competed with the best the division has to offer. He won’t be rusty rather he’ll be unrelenting

His opponent Sergio Pettis will be younger, faster and want to keep this fight on the feet if he has any chance to compete with Benavidez. Pettis has little power and poses little threat to Joe on the feet other than the fact that Joe can’t allow Pettis to outpoint him with his pitter patter punching. Once on the floor and I absolutely believe they’ll get to the floor, this fight will be dominated by Benavidez. I expect a snoozer here as Joe Rubs the Pettis out of Sergio.

Whittaker -235/Benavidez -200

2 team parlay 1 unit +115

Blaydes -190 vs. Overeem +180

I’ve been as profitable on Blaydes as any fighter recently we as I’ve ridden him through his loss to Ngannou forward to this point in his career. I believe this young wrestling-based fighter on the improve is close to becoming a true threat for the title in the Heavyweight division. But in this fight he must be very cautious as in many ways he’s made for his opponent Alistair Overheem.

Blaydes striking, though improving is nowhere near as effective as Overeem’s as well he’s giving up vast amounts of experience and savvy to the Dutch striker. Blaydes advantages lie in his ability to get the ‘Reem to the floor and rub him out for wrestling is the preferred method of effectively controlling the striker. Wrestling will allow Blaydes his chance to eliminate Overeem’s stand-up effectiveness and enhance his ability to get to that porcelain chin by first gaining top control then utilizing vicious ground and pound to turn out Overeem’s lights.

Now Overeem understands completely the plan of his opponent and is aware that if he is to overcome this young lion he must keep this fight ion the feet and at distance. Overeem must pepper the younger fighter from the outside and use movement to keep the wrestling from clinging to him. He must make it difficult for Blaydes to get inside and into the clasp. This tactic (which is easier voiced than executed) can often create impatience for the wrestler which is where the dangerous part comes in…. for if Blaydes finds it necessary to rush in to attempt a double or single leg take down attempt he could be recipient of lethal leg kicks and devastating knees. Blaydes must be careful not to play right into the savvy fighters snare so believe me when I say that where this fight takes place will be telling.

A stand-up fight with distance control and precision striking fight will favor Overeem and an ugly maul on the mat is Blaydes path to victory. ‘Styles make fights’ as my hero Angelo Dundee would always say and this fight is sure to be determined by how and where it is fought.

Overeem +170

one footnote: I personnaly have a couple unit wager on Anderson +200 against Holm but did not release it in time for all to obtain that price. As dog of +140 or better Anderson is a release. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 


NHL Stanley Cup Final: Knights vs. Capitals - 5/28/2018

In my years of Profitable Sports Gaming I have found that Sports can be cruel and simultaneously that Sports can be oh so exalting. Cruel in the sense that whether it be individual/team setback, loss or injury the game goes on, the team moves forward, and the player must work to recover. Exalting in that perseverance can and is often paid off in the ultimate accomplishment.

The Vegas Golden Knight story has been an incredible one and while I applaud their success I also must be true to the handicapping process. That process says that tonight the Capitals lay on the Golden Knights exactly what the Knights laid onto the Winnipeg Jets in the Conference Final series…..a cold hard slapshot in the face. I do believe that as Vegas did to the Jets in the Campbell Finals so too will the harder, faster more focused and weathered Capitals do to the Knights tonight. That’s the cruel part.

The exalting part will be the release of emotion and the outpour of camaraderie that decades of pent up frustration when the Capital futility converges on the Cup. As a collective they’ll finally earn their opportunity to hoist whether that be tonight as I foresee it or game six, either way the Capitals have paid their dues to the Hockey Gods and the Knights have not. Criticize that statement only at the expense of explaining to me how Neal missed a wide open net last game or the number of pucks that rang off the iron in game four.

No, tonight puckheads we celebrate determination, grit, fortitude and honor for the correct team is going to hoist the 2018 Stanley Cup and it’s the Washington Capitals. Be it game five or six it matters not…because in the end it’s about the….

Exaltation.

Capitals +155

Enjoy the festivities puckheads

 

"This is the business we have chosen" Hyman Roth in Godfather II

6-4-18 7pm EST

NHL Stanley Cup Final game 4

Welcome Puck passionates, if you told me after game one when the Capitals were down 0-1 that I could work myself in position (prior to game 4) to profit +2.5 units if the Capitals win the Cup and lose nothing if the Knights happen to hoist I would have jumped at the opportunity.

Today we have that same option.

Now don’t get me wrong, I believe the Capitals can run the Knights out of the gym tonight and half way expect that to happen… BUT Profitable Sports Gaming is as much about maximizing profit as it is minimizing risk. Not only that I feel it would be poor business to make any decision other than executing a 1 unit wager on the Knights +200 series tonight.

I’ve said on numerous occasions that Future wagers’ sole purpose is to insure bottom line profit! Understanding this makes tonight’s decision quite easy because after all is said and done….it’s business!

It’s important not to allow confidence in a gaming position to manifest itself with inefficient wagering. I’ve gone on record publicly on numerous radios shows, podcasts, publications and my own blog expressing how I handicap Capital dominance in this Stanley Cup Final series and while the money wagered is of great importance, of greater importance is the fact that my pride in on the line here and I yearn for the Caps to hoist the Cup as much as they do.

I work tirelessly on my gaming releases and will say that when I publish these breakdowns they have my heart and soul in each as well my pride is on the line every time I release a position.

There will be gaming opportunities into game five (and beyond if the Knights win tonight) so tune into what I hope will be a Capital’s dominant performance tonight and enjoy the passion.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

6-2-18 4:05pm EST

Golden Knights +110 L

System tonight favors Knights. Let's hope system is off...

 

5-30-18 7:05pm EST

The Hockey world, both new fans and traditional are relishing the success of the Vegas Golden Knights as well they should.  I enjoy this success story as much as any for what the Knights have done for a sport I love, a community I respect and the business that is profitable sports gaming.  

What makes me bristle is the coronation that’s being anticipated and planned after simply one Stanley Cup Playoff game. Over the years,  I’ve learned to respect and admire both teams until one wins their fourth game before making any party plans and proclamations.

I caution the Knight fans not to get too wound up unless of course they win tonight but again this is a seven-game series and I hesitate to think that it is as easy as the Golden Knights are making it appear.

Additional Capitals +210 series below and earlier today our only position.

5-29-18 4:45pm EST

Announced this morning on 'The Numbers Game' with Mr. Gill Alexander Capitals +210 series which is the best line I can find outside of Las Vegas. 

Capitals +150 game 1 L

Las Vegas Golden Knights -140 vs. Washington Capitals +130 (series)

Welcome to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final where the top two 2018 NHL hockey clubs compete for the opportunity to hoist the Stanley Cup Trophy.

The 2018 Golden Knights have been a one of the greatest success stories in North American Sports. The civic pride they’ve instilled into the Vegas community, the attention they’ve driven to the game of Hockey and the tremendous growth in hockey wagering handle (especially in Las Vegas) are all unquantifiable and attributable to this team. The boon provided by these Knights was unanticipated by everyone which is what makes this meteoric success so unique and noteworthy. While the Golden Knights story is inspiring, the goal today is to  evaluate every factor possible in determining advantage (if any) between these two teams. When the two most complete teams reach the Stanley Cup Final series they arrive focused, determined, strong-willed and eager to complete the dream they’ve envisioned since childhood. Here’s a breakdown of the series as I handicap it.

Goaltending

Fleury 1.68 GAA  .947     Holtby 2.04 GAA  .923

These goaltenders know one another well as they’ve competed plenty in the past. Holtby, since his reinsertion into the lineup for the Capitals has played stellar hockey in contributing to the Capitals success. He’s calm, confident and playing the best hockey of his career entering this series..

Fleury has been magnificent these playoffs and his numbers prove it. If he remains playing at this level of dominance and producing these results then Las Vegas will win the Cup. That said, I have reservations about Fleury and though he has quelled them all year long I do not believe he’ll be able to continue this quality of play especially against a bunch of hardened veterans who know him well and are looking forward to competing against their old nemesis. In four straight seasons as the full time Penguin netminder, Fleury never realized a save percentage higher than .900. Last year while playing part time he accrued a .924 GAA over nine wins in fifteen games but was relieved mid playoffs by Matt Murray.  Fleury’s been exceptional to date, but I expect regression in his performance in this series not so much because I don’t feel he’ll continue to play well but because I feel there is only so much pressure a minder can face before a few begin to slip by. In the playoffs, a .915 or .920 save percentage is outstanding for a netminder but Fleury’s current .947 is stellar and in my opinion unsustainable especially understanding his past performances, his defense and the opponent.

Advantage: slight Golden Knights

Defense

Each team has played suffocating defense during these playoffs, but a closer look reveals Fleury backing up a defense that allows an abundance of shots on goal. In fact, the Knights have allowed 33.7 shots against their ‘Minder per game which is ranked 14th of all the teams in the playoffs. At this time of year its important to realize that minor team flaws may become festering issues in the Stanley Cup Finals and allowing a team such as Washington to sustain pressure in the offensive zone will be detrimental to the Knights chances. The Knights will be forced to address shots against in this series.

Washington’s defense on the other hand has allowed a paltry 28,2 shot against per game against potent offensive competition so far this playoff season in Columbus, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay). Washington frustrated the Pens and Lightning with their defensive ‘bend but don’t break’ suffocating style and those teams are at least as offensively potent as are the Knights if not more so. Defense is a strong factor in favor of the Capitals.

Advantage: Capitals

Offense

While it’s clear the Knights are quick, fast and skilled they only average 2.87 GPG which ranks them tenth of all sixteen playoff teams. Vegas is extremely resilient however as they tend to answer goals immediately with tallies of their own as evidenced by the fact that against the Jets they scored eight of the nine goals scored after any game was tied!  The Knights 27.8 scoring chances per game is best among teams in this year’s second season with a minimum of ten games played. The Knights are an opportunistic squad that attack opponents with four unrelenting lines even though their scoring basically comes from the top two groups.

Washington’s offense is power based and very effective as they average 3.47 GPG, the highest of all playoff teams except the Penguins. The Capitals have offensive stars with recognizable names with guys like Ovechkin, Backstrom and Oshie but they are deeper in talent than is Vegas and in this final series I believe this will be apparent. Washington puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses as they get production from all four lines which is something Vegas lacks, depth on offense.

Advantage: Washington

Coaching

These two Coaches are both world class men and coaches. I see little difference. Trotz coached in a Conference semi-final prior and has eleven playoff coaching appearances while Gallant is in his second playoff appearance as a coach having taken the Florida Panthers to the playoffs in 2015-16. Trotz has more playoff experience and Gallant has preven that Vegas hired a great coach.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Special teams become more important the deeper this tournament extends and it is in this area of play that I believe Washington has quantifiable advantage.

-Power Play

The Washington power play is hitting at a 28.8% clip compared to a meager 17.6% for the Knights. Therefore, the Knights must remain disciplined as they already allow abundant shots at their net and if they go shorthanded, it will further stress an already taxed defense and over worked netminder. Team discipline for Vegas is most important.

-Penalty Kill

The Capitals penalty kill is 75.6% effective (compared to the Knights 82.5%). A closer look into who each team played during these playoffs however shows that Knight opponents, the Kings and Sharks were not offensively apt, and the overconfident Jets hobbled into their series with the Knights after a grueling seven games with the Predators. The Capitals faced the hottest offensive team entering the playoffs in the Columbus Blue Jackets then the two top ranked Power Play teams in the playoffs in Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I feel the Capitals will be more than well prepared for anything the Knights can toss at them knowing that the Knights are currently struggling on this phase of the game. I don’t see that changing against the Washington defense.

-Face-Offs Won (FOW)

Face-offs in any hockey game are important in that they determine possession and possession is the preamble to offensive pressure. In one’s own zone face-off control is even more important in that puck possession allows a team to begin transition from defense to offense. Washington’s FOW is 49% which is acceptable understanding that for much of the playoffs their lead C Backstrom (who is their face off stalwart) was injured (hand). Backstrom is now back, healthy and back in the circle for face-offs.

The Golden Knights 47.7% face off success is fourteenth among all playoff teams this year. This is an area they must improve upon if they are going to pressure the Capitals defense with their speed and quickness. 

Special team’s effectiveness in hockey is much like football in that they contribute proportionally to outcome and not every team is as effective with their special teams as others. Small details can pay great dividends in special teams and there’s a clear edge here….

Advantage: Capitals

Intangibles

Here is where my interpretation from decades of watching these Tournaments is drawn upon. I don’t expect everyone to agree with these positions but they are as I state them to be: considerable factors in who will Hoist in 2018 at least in my handicapping process.

-Rest

Make no mistake that the eight to nine days off for Las Vegas is a curse and not an advantage. We saw in several series this year (and regularly in past seasons) that teams with abundant rest have a tough time catching their legs in game one of a series…and that’s with five or six days of rest let alone a full seven or eight! Add to this that every Las Vegas practice since they whupped the Jets has been sold out and people have had to be turned away. The Vegas coach, team and jock strap handlers are the talk of the town as well the Hockey world and for the last nine days they’ve been praised, exalted and interviewed. This is not an ideal scenario for a team with no previous playoff experience that needs to enter the biggest seven game series of their careers focused and firing on all cylinders. There’s no way for them to be able to prepare for what has transpired these last nine days.

Game one advantage in my judgement goes to the Capitals no matter what type of light show extravaganza we witness prior to the contest. In later series games it is understood that rest may and often does compliment the team with days off.  In this series however, I believe the abundant rest prior to the series and the schedule of Stanley Cup Playoff games this year does Vegas well more harm than good.

-Schedule

A potential issue for the Knights is the Stanley Cup schedule. In every 2018 playoff series leading up to this final series, games were played every other night like clockwork. One look into this series and we see that rather than games scheduled every other day this series is: Monday, Wednesday, two days off then Saturday, Monday, then another two days off prior to (each) game five, game six and game seven.

Teams that rely on quickness, precision skating and pin point passing benefit by rhythm and regularity. Stretching out the schedule into a choppy two week plus schedule in no way benefits the rhythm and rhyme a team like the Knights wants/needs to establish to be effective and dominate. In fact, it could be argued that this uneven irregularly set up schedule provides advantage to the team that plays a heavier more physical style and relies less on speed of play and precision which is the Capitals.

It’s my belief that this scheduling (when looking back) will be one of the main contributors to the Golden Knights struggling to maintain their speed, precision passing and early playoff prowess.

-Hockey Gods

To put this simply, the Golden Knights have not  incurred an appropriate amount of organizational, emotional or physical desperation to be able to hoist the Cup. Meanwhile the despair, dejection and underachievement that has been overcome by the Capitals for the last decade plus is tangible. No hockey enthusiast may debate this and it’s Washington’s past futility that drives them toward a Stanley Cup Championship run.

Sure, the Knights are AS focused, sure they’re going to be AS prepared and they absolutely long to win just like the Capitals do, BUT they’ve not been kicked in the teeth, nor have they ever felt the disappointment of constantly coming up short or for that matter even losing a playoff series!. The Knights have not had the opportunity to invest the necessary blood sweat and tears it takes to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup and for this reason and those above I feel the Washington Capitals win this series. 

Series Washington +130                       Prop: Under 5.5 series games +175 (half, may not be available to all)

We'll invest one unit on the series now. If the Capitals lose game one we're coming right back with another. Tonight's game will be posted later if we move. Enjoy the Stanley Cup everyone.

GambLou.com

Profitale Sports Gaming


UFC FN Liverpool Thompson vs. Till "The Till is gone" - 5/26/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight night Liverpool, England. Below is my breakdown of the main event between Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Darren ‘the shill’ Till. I demean Till on purpose for fighters that speak shit about being the greatest then miss weight badly only confirm that they are unprofessional and unprepared to be a champion. Till’s missed weight and the organization needed this headliner to make their card in Liverpool profitable. So the result of Till missing is that he sports advantage in a fight in his home town in front of his fans and he enters with unfair advantage. This is a broken system that needs to be fixed as all six fighters who have missed badly in 2018 have gone on to win.

Losing a few percentage points of your pay to own unfair advantage in a fight is clearly an accepted ploy for cheaters and the UFC is burying their head in the sand regarding this tactic that more and more is becoming a plan and a practice.

The UFC MUST address this for it is enables cheaters to benefit at the expense of the professional well-prepared fighter.

It’s impossible to regard the UFC as a legitimate entity when they proclaim that the rules in place do not apply and can be manipulated for something as arbitrary as a ‘family emergency’.

Man does the UFC need some leadership and practice in ethics ….badly.

Here’s my breakdown of the main event published Wednesday May 23 on the VSiN networks publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’.

Published 5-23-18

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night from Liverpool, England. This week they fight on Sunday morning (in the USA) starting at 7:30am PST! The main event will go off about 11:30 am PST so we’ll wake up Sunday morning to left hooks and lattes. Here’s a look at the main event.

Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -115 vs. Darren ‘the Gorilla’ Till -105, 5 rounds Welterweight 170lbs

As discussed previously the UFC is working diligently on exporting their product around the globe and it’s off to England after a couple weeks in South America. As was the case last week, this slate is comprised of relatively obscure fighters and features an abundance of regional European talent. I use a fight card like this for due diligence purposes only obtaining fighter intel for future use in other MMA opportunities.

Sunday’s main event is going to be a competitive affair as we have two dynamic striking based fighters who with an impressive victory should insure themselves a shot at Welterweight champion Tyronn Woodley.

Darren Till is an abrasive, young, brash, English fighter who comes complete with size, power and bad intention. His October demolition of Donald Cerrone (a blown up Lightweight) made Till the talk of the division as the kid is a strong willed, forward pressing, aggressive fighter who talks a big game, at least thus far. Till’s career has spanned a mere five years so he’s still a bit green and in need of refinement. While he is powerful and determined he can also be reckless, wide/wild, and he’s quite one dimensional. He’s a front running fighter meaning he looks like a world beater in the first round but tends to exhaust himself as the fight wears past the first five minutes. Till’s confident in his ability to take the opponent out early and has compromised himself in past fights displaying that lack of experience by taking to frenetic a pace early. I see this as one of his major flaws.

His exuberance to engage in an immediate furious firestorm and his overly aggressive nature tends to completely drain Till later in fights transferring him from a powerful destroyer a lumbering, stationary statue. Those that have made it past the first round with him have all taxed Till and none of those fighters are of Thompson’s championship skill level. In 2015 against Nicholas Dalby Till was clearly ahead after two rounds only to be battered in the third round and settle for a draw. In his fight prior to the Cerrone devastation against a journeyman fighter in Velickovic he again slowed late in round two and earned a close decision. I did mention that his is a scheduled five round fight eh?

Till will be dangerous early in this fight but in my judgement he has many holes in his fight game. He’s a typical English striking based fighter in that he stands erect then as he expends abundant energy he slows substantially and drops his arms. Later in fights he lacks any quickness if he had any to begin with, his defense becomes lax if nonexistent and his erect stature makes him an easy target to hit. Till’s rarely had to fight from the floor nor has he been in the Octagon with an experienced, diverse, precision striking veteran like Thompson.

Stevie Thompson’s on the other hand happens to be a most polished and professional fighter who’s gone five rounds twice recently against current Welterweight Champion Woodley. He’s been in the Octagon with the best fighters of the division and has dominated. He’s beaten names like Hendricks, MacDonald and Masvidal as well took Woodley to a draw before losing their second five round Championship bout.

Thompson is a Kempo/kickboxing/Jujutsu artist who’s versed enough with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to be able to hold great advantage over Till on the mat should he decide to take him there which I believe may be a real possibility.  Anything Thompson can do to force the youthful Brit to expend energy is going to enable Thompson, a veteran of several five round fights to appropriate distance between he and Till then batter the Brit with a barrage of precision striking from arms, legs, knees and elbows once the youth tires and he will tire.

Thompson will employ steady movement to control distance and keep Till on the outside and force him to rush inside to engage the ever-moving fluid striking Thompson. Sunday morning you’ll see Thompson acting as a matador in the first round and Till the bull as he tries to overwhelm Thompson and gore him with early explosive engagement.

Thompson must not engage early with Till and allow the Englishman to start tossing those wide Sunday shots rather he needs to stick to the plan that will be evasiveness early. Thompson will want to batter in oncoming bull with strikes and employ a steady leg kick attack to slow the brash young brawler. Movement, fluid counterstriking and a constant leg attack will force Till to expend energy in an attempt to run down the cagier veteran and try to overwhelm him with his strength.

I view Darren Till as a dangerous prospect but I believe he has been pushed a bit to far too fast in this evolution to become a Champion. I believe this fight goes a long way in determining how long it will take the Englishman to learn the many other aspects of mixed martial arts other than pure youthful power. Till in there Sunday against a more polished precision-based fighter with experience and Championship mettle and for those reasons I view Thompson to be value priced.

Till’s going to earn his PhD. In MMA the hard way Sunday morning when he steps into the Octagon with a man who is more complete than he in every single aspect of MMA fighting save for brute strength and early power.

Thompson -120

Update 5-26-18

Till missed weight badly and is basically cheating to gain edge in this fight. He did this either out of stupidity because he's been flapping his jaws and eating flap jacks and/or because he knows he needs an angle for he's completely outclassed in this fight save for early power. I hate cheats. Till get's his degree in an arse whupping tomorrow. Don't miss this beat down.

If Till’s travesty was not bad enough now the other local Liverpoolian on the card Molly (more meatballs please) McMann missed weight by a couple pounds then after forty more minutes of cutting to take the last pound off stepped back on the scale at the same weight as when she missed. The local fighters are really spitting up all over themselves this morning. Anyway, McMann could barely walk upon her first miss and enters this fight against a fighter well prepared to make a statement, fresh and ready to fire. Robertson is a grappler/wrestler and is prepared to make a splash in the UFC. I believe this fight does hit the floor especially in lieu of the weigh-in results and once on the floor this is all Robertson.

Robertson +150

I'm monitoring another couple fights and will add via @Twitter tomorrow should the prices get where I need toehm to go. Good Luck to all and enjoy the fights...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

5-26-18 5am EST

Robertson +150

5-23-18 9:30am EST

Thompson -120


NHL Conference Championships: Campbell & Wales Passion - 5/20/2018

5-23-18 3:50pm EST

 Wales Conference Final: Lightning -145 vs. Capitals +125

Welcome to the Wales Conference’s game seven where tonight’s winner will receive the Prince of Wales Trophy and four days of rest before having to turn around and either host the Golden Knights (should the Lighting win) or travel to sin city (should the Capitals prevail) for The Stanley Cup Final game one. Here’s how I break down this game seven.

Netminders

Vasilevskiy 2.55 GAA  .920%          Holtby 2.16 GAA  .919%

By the numbers these two netminders are playing similarly outstanding playoff hockey as anything above .915 as a save percentage in the playoffs is outstanding. The Lightning turned to a younger more athletic Andei Vasilevskiy a few years ago for this reason and because of his youth, athleticism and durability. He’s responded by playing sound, fundamental hockey.

Holtby had an unusually poor regular season and actually started these playoffs on the pine watching backup netminder Grubauer drop two games to the Blue Jackets before Coach Trotz inserted Holtby back into the lineup. Holtby has been superb since gaining his starting position back but has had troublesome games against these Lightning. It’s clear after a closer look that the main reason for this has been a lack of sound, physical defense in front of the netminder as opposed to any futility on Holtby’s part. Holtby’s playing with a chip on his shoulder and a single-minded purpose which goes a long way in explaining his excellence this post season. It looks to me like he wants another shot at his old nemesis Marc-Andre Fleury.

Defense

Tampa has been playing bend but don’t break hockey in front of Vasilevskiy which often results in them sagging defensively in front of their cage and trying to protect their goaltender. I look for a change in attitude Wednesday when they face-off for Tampa’s at its best when it plays frenetic, furious offensive pressure hockey. Washington’s constant pressure is resulting in an obtuse imbalance of shots on goal and Tampa must address this as over relying on one’s netminder a second straight game may be risky even with a stone wall like Vasilevskiy in net.

Washington’s defense is veteran laden and has insulated Holtby effectively for they allowed 31.9 shots against in the regular season while compressing that number down in these playoffs to 28 shots per game. Washington’s defense is keenly aware of the Lighting speed, skill and prowess. They realize that they must play with extreme discipline, block passing and shooting lanes and keep the front of the net clear for Holtby as they did in game six to have a chance to travel to Vegas for game one Monday.

Offense

The Lighting offense is skilled, quick and plays precision hockey but they’re at their best when playing from the lead which allows them to skate freely to utilize their natural abilities and improvision. Scoring the first goal in this game is key to Tampa being able to press into the Capitals offensive zone, control the puck and pressure Holtby. Tampa has offensive superstars laced throughout their roster so allowing this team room to skate is something the Capitals cannot allow.

The Capitals are a physical, grinding, attacking offense with underestimated speed and quickness and physicality. They’ve utilized a dominating front check to gain access into the opponent’s offensive zone and attack the net which has proven to be most successful. This is surely their aim tonight. The Caps are strong, skilled and are dominating on offense as they’ve already shown in this series. The physical toll they’ve been administering to the Lighting this series as well game six (39 hits to 18) may well manifest itself into advantage come this game seven. I believe the effect of Washington’s unrelenting physical, and frenetic pace of offensive play is taking a physical and emotional toll on Tampa Bay. Tampa did not want this series to go seven games evidenced by listening to Coach Cooper after the game.

Special Teams

This time of year, coaches study diligently to diagnose minor flaws in opponents which they may expose to create advantage. It’s been said, “Playoff hockey uncovers a team’s areas of weakness”, and I believe this.

Washington needs to address face-offs for they are below a 50%-win rate. Face-offs mean possession and possession means offensive pressure. They must also stay disciplined for Tampa’s power play is successful 29% of the time. Tampa was 0-2 on the power play in Monday’s game six loss, if they had gone 1-1 who knows what the story would be today?

Tampa Bay must reduce the shots they are allowing on Vasilevskiy. Allowing the Capitals to control time and space in their own zone is putting immeasurable pressure on Vasilevskiy. Also, the Lighting must stay out of the penalty box as their penalty kill is a meager 74% (Washington kills penalties at an 83% clip for reference sake) and offensively Washington has the most potent power play numbers in the playoffs at 29.8%. Edge Capitals.

Coaching

I won’t try to compare the capability of these two outstanding coaches. Veteran Head Coach Barry Trotz has been the recipient of unfair criticism in my estimation and what he’s done this year with a team most overlooked is nothing short of incredible.

Jon Cooper since arriving in Tampa Bay has only delivered the Lightning to the playoffs for four of the six years he has been there. These two coaches are both deserving of moving forward, it’s a shame one will have to go home.

Intangibles

Both of these organizations, coaches, players and support staffs are thirsting and desperate to realize their lifelong dream of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup.

I do feel (and this is quite intangible stuff) that the Capitals, their fans and especially one Alex Ovechkin have experienced obtuse setback, frustration and heartache these last ten years. The many under achievements realized by the Capitals this last decade will work to manifest itself in one of two ways; either they rise up and finally overcome years of disappointment (not a strong enough word) with a victory tonight or they will yet again fall short of their goals and return home with more questions than answers.

Sports are filled with stories of how deep belief in one’s skills and an unwavering will to realize one’s dreams eventually manifest itself with the crowning achievement.  It’s my belief that the Capitals, motivated by their own past will come together tonight and earn their way into the Stanley Cup Finals.

Ray Bourke in hockey and John Elway come to mind as superstars who finally achieved their dream after a long career of setback and disappointment as potential metaphors for Alex Ovechkin. Washington has proved that they are deserving, now they must go out and earn their way to Sin City where a well-rested hockey club and a city of transients bonded together for one purpose await them.

This Stanley Cup journey is only three quarters of the way through after tonight. Enjoy the pure passion.

Washington +130

current pricing accceptable but we'll wait as the parlay playing pundits won't come in to hit Lighting until late...

5-21-18 7:40pm EST

Capitals -120

This one goes seven. Ovechkin and team won't fold and quit as Winnipeg did. There's more Hockey to be played in the Wales

5-20-18 2:18pm EST

I posted the photo above because I believe this series takes a bit of a turn here today. I look for the Jets to begin to make this passion play well more physical. I see them trying to inflict physical toll on Fleury first, then the rest of the Knight team overall. I've noticed glimpses of the Jets cracking. Lack of focus, netminder mistakes at critical times and overall inability to keep up with the faster, quicker, rested team is infuriating these Canadians. Their Head Coach has displayed temper on several occasions publicly so what the hail do you think he's doing behind closed doors?  The young but not intelligent netminder is talking out and not playing steel trap puck and the team is clearly frustrated by their lack of ability to skate with the Knights.

I look for the Knights to finish this series off today but that is more my wish not my wager as the best way to silence a bully is to whup them in front of they own people. The Jets are gripping and that's not the recipe for success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We have an insured one plus unit of profit waiting for us when this series ends so I'm taking the easy route and watching today. I'll be back tomorrow in a critical Wales game sure to test the Capitals mettle.

5-19-19 9:25am EST

Golden Knights have been the sole home team exfelling in these playoffs. They refuse to lose when they host on the strip. I'm so pleased for the community of Las Vegas that they finally received a pro sports team which now adds tot he dimension and diversity not to mention civic pride of a great desert community.  

There remains profit to be made so like these teams let's remain focused but maybe ratchet up the intensity a bit and get to work as we strive to improve each day in every way. 

5-18-18 7:30pm EST

Jets +105 L

5-18-18 9:30am EST

Road dogs, pups, pooches, mongrels, mutts, canine's and hounds. get the picture? More later today puckheads....

5-16-18 8:20pm EST

Jets +125 W

5-16-18 1:45pm EST

Today we rake a little profit. Jets Series is -105. We'll use the open end of the Jets -140 parlay and tie it to Jets -105 series for return +234. It sets up the opportunity to watch this series knowing there's a one plus unit net profit at the end of the series (we own Vegas +210 series currently). Meanwhile stay tuned until drop of puck because we may not be done.

Playoff hockey is the best eh?

5-16-18 10:15am EST

These last couple rounds have been well more enjoyable than the first round eh? It's a marathon not a sprint and we still have plenty of work to do. We're going to have an interesting move planned for today puckheads. I'll be at the Diamondback game then will post sometime prior to the drop of frozen rubber....

5-15-18 7:17pm EST

Lightning +113 W

5-14-18 5:55pm EST

Golden Knights +210 series (Pending see above)

5-13-18 5:15pm EST

Capitals +170 W

5-3-18 1:50pm EST

Game two's start tonight.

We'll have opinions as well we have the open parlay Winnipeg -140/Open working.  We'll circle back to it sooner or later.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN Maia vs. Usman: Choked out in Chile - 5/19/2018

5-19-18 10:35pm EST

Making Cannonier a full unit wager

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight Night from Santiago Chile. Below is the column I submitted this week for Point Spread Weekly which can be accessed via VSiN.com. Following that main event breakdown is an update that includes my other releases for the UFC.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

 

(originally published 5-15-18 Point Spread Weekly)

Kamara Usman -400 vs. Damian Maia +325 Main Event (Welterweight 170lbs.)

This week’s UFC card remains in South America with a trip to Santiago, Chile for Fight Night 129. Kamara Usman is a rising star in the UFC. He faces Damian Maia who’s recognized as a World Class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master and one of the most feared submission specialists in MMA.

Rather than a stand-up brawl and toe to toe affair Maia must find a way to fight at his strength which is on the floor. Usman however is an NCAA Division II Championship wrestler who’ll sport outstanding take down defense which sets up the cat and mouse for this fight. I learned long ago that kryptonite to World Class BJJ specialists is a wrestling-based fighter with a well-rounded fight arsenal.

Wrestling prowess provides a fighter with the needed leverage, floor ability and hand control to not only compete with BJJ artists but at times dominate them. Conditioning and toughness are also innate advantages for wrestlers as they know little other than grinding, grappling and groping for hours daily.

To complete their MMA fighting arsenal wrestlers need to develop precision striking ability which is something they often lack. They also must learn how to take a straight power punch to the point of the jaw which never happens in their competitions. This takes time as it is not natural or easy to learn then employ.  However, once a wrestling-based fighter arms themselves with fluidity about their stand-up game (both offensively and defensively) and an ability to take punches then the ascent to world Champion will soon follow.

I’ve just provided you with a portrait of Kamara Usman.  Usman is all of the above with an abundance of bad intention laced throughout. While no spring chicken he is fresh into the sport as a thirty-one-year-old who’s been fighting professionally since 2012. He’ll have a ten-year age advantage on Maia (forty) who’s only real angle in this fight is to catch Usman in a mistake and try to submit him early. I’ve not seen Usman eat a huge power punch and (like most wrestlers) the jury is out on his ability to take a Sunday shot but Damian Maia is not the fighter that’s going to test Usman with any form of stand-up threat Saturday night.

Maia took this fight on short notice and off a one-sided decision loss to another complete wrestling-based fighter in Colby Covington, so he feels prepared for what he’s going to face. Maia’s edge over Usman is his guile and fighting savvy and he’ll need to all of it to bait Usman into a mistake as this is the only way I see Maia getting his hand raised. He takes this fight with the ambition of surprising the division and earning himself a last gasp Championship opportunity but in my judgement he is overmatched in every aspect of this competition save for his vast fighting experience.

-Update 5-19-15-

Currently the pricing on Usman is reaching foolish levels for Maia is capable to capitalizing on an Usman mistake should he slip and make one. We’ll allow the parlay playing pukes to continue to push this and report closer to opening bell via @Twitter if this number meets the necessary prerequisites to consider a nominal position on Maia…

Cummings -170 vs. Prazeres +150

This is ‘The big payback’ for Prazeres who in previous fights at 155lbs (Lightweight) blatantly cheated by grossly missing weight in order to win the fight as well is telling us by those repeated attempts to compete at 155 that at 170 he is undersized and many times overmatched. In steps Cummings who is younger, taller, longer than the Brazilian but also has a complete wrestling arsenal capable of keeping this up with take down D or thriving on the mat should it go there. Prazeres is a pip and he gets his ‘big payback’ today.

No play because I missed earlier value on Cummings damnit

Benitez -180 vs. Bandenay +160

Benitez from Mexico is the more polished precision striking fighter who can be tested on the mat. His opponent from Peru is the younger, longer, larger fighter and is a deadly striking based fighter who will probably not choose to make this a maul on the mat. Rather this fight will be decided by who controls the distance to their expertise. Benitez needs to work inside and Bandenay will want to maintain space in order to deliver lethal and powerful kicks and strikes. This fight opened up about a pick-em which was off as Benitez should be a chalk. That said, Benitez -195 is too high in my judgement. Value play here

Bandenay +160

Pantoja -115 vs. Moreno +105

I’m surprised Pantoja is chalk here. He did win their first fight as this IS a rematch, but I believe Moreno’s overall fight growth and development since their first match is more substantial and I like the revenge factor. Moreno who by the way opened -170, is longer, taller, more athletic and has reach so he does qualify for mangy mutt status.

Moreno +105

Luque -195 vs. LaPrise +180

Luque will have family in attendance. He’s younger, more powerful and explosive. LaPrise is the more technical striker here and will need to weather the early typhoon that will be Luque on the lurch. LaPrise needs to get to round two where he will be able to control space with his precision striking and force the monster Luque deep into this fight where he has shown a tendency to tire and slow. It’s a marathon not a sprint eh?

LaPrise +180 

Reyes -220 vs. Cannonier +200

Reyes is tall, long, young and incredibly one dimensional. Cannonier is the much smaller man but in past Heavyweight and LHW fights he’s displayed an ability to compete being the much smaller man. I watch Cannonier train and I can tell you all that if he makes it into the second round his speed, explosion and cardio will expose this tall one dimensional yet powerful striker in Reyes.

Cannonier +200 (half)

Suarez -750 vs. Grasso +650

This line is way off based on Suarez’s one dimensional (but lethal) wrestling and Grasso’s striking and edge in experience. Show me.

Grasso +650

lunch money wager

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NHL Conference Championships - 5/13/2018

5-19-19 9:25am EST

Golden Knights have been the sole home team exfelling in these playoffs. They refuse to lose when they host on the strip. I'm so pleased for the community of Las Vegas that they finally received a pro sports team which now adds tot he dimension and diversity not to mention civic pride of a great desert community.  

There remains profit to be made so like these teams let's remain focused but maybe ratchet up the intensity a bit and get to work as we strive to improve each day in every way. 

5-18-18 7:30pm EST

Jets +105 L

5-18-18 9:30am EST

Road dogs, pups, pooches, mongrels, mutts, canine's and hounds. get the picture? More later today puckheads....

5-16-18 8:20pm EST

Jets +125 W

5-16-18 1:45pm EST

Today we rake a little profit. Jets Series is -105. We'll use the open end of the Jets -140 parlay and tie it to Jets -105 series for return +234. It sets up the opportunity to watch this series knowing there's a one plus unit net profit at the end of the series (we own Vegas +210 series currently). Meanwhile stay tuned until drop of puck because we may not be done.

Playoff hockey is the best eh?

5-16-18 10:15am EST

These last couple rounds have been well more enjoyable than the first round eh? It's a marathon not a sprint and we still have plenty of work to do. We're going to have an interesting move planned for today puckheads. I'll be at the Diamondback game then will post sometime prior to the drop of frozen rubber....

5-15-18 7:17pm EST

Lightning +113 W

5-14-18 5:55pm EST

Golden Knights +210 series (Pending see above)

5-13-18 5:15pm EST

Capitals +170 W

5-3-18 1:50pm EST

Game two's start tonight.

We'll have opinions as well we have the open parlay Winnipeg -140/Open working.  We'll circle back to it sooner or later.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 224 Nunes vs. Pennington:Rio Naked Choke - 5/12/2018

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to UFC 224. Below is my article which appears weekly on Point Spread weekly via the VSIN Network. Its subscription based but well worth the investment if you are serious about the profession of Profitable Sports Gaming. After the PSW piece I do have a couple later additions. Good Luck and enjoy the fights

Published 5-9-18

UFC 224 takes us Saturday to the birthplace of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rio de Janeiro Brazil. I’ve mentioned previously that fight cards conducted outside of the United States often provide regional fighters with favorable match-ups designed to contribute to the exportation of the UFC in that region. The UFC is comprised of a relatively young demographic so local fighters having success in Brazil, Bangkok or Berlin seeds regional growth and is in the best interest of the organization.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Amanda Nunes -650 vs. Rachel Pennington +480 

Speaking of local flavor here is Exhibit A. This fight is a set-up fight intended to spike interest/hype in Amanda Nunes for a super fight is on the horizon if she can beat Raquel Pennington. With a victory Saturday Nunes will be in position to then move on to fight the most dominant female fighter in MMA, Chris Cyborg. 

Nunes will be the larger lady in the Octagon. She’ll hold a striking advantage, a strength advantage and is capable of controlling Pennington on the mat. This is a substantial step up for Pennington who’s been inactive due to injury since September of 2017. Pennington could shock the MMA world but it’s highly unlikely as the odds suggest. We’ll revisit Nunes when she does in fact step into the Octagon with Cyborg in a few months. Nunes should finish Pennington in this fight.

‘Jacare’ Souza -150 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +130 

Here’s the ‘styles make fights’ match-up though there are a handful of other wrestler/grappler vs. striker fights on this card that offer great value.

Souza is the number two ranked Middleweight. He’s a world class BJJ savant who’s dominant on the mat and over the fifteen years he’s fought at the professional level he’s lost only five times (one NC). Conducting this fight from the floor is mandatory for Souza as it will allow him maximum advantage. Souza, the larger man in the Octagon Saturday will want to measure himself against Gastelum on his way inside to clasp the smaller man and drag him down to the dirt. Souza is twelve years the older fighter which provides him an edge in experience but understand that there is wear on that body after years of war and attrition which (some of) his recent fights have displayed. Souza’s goal will be to limit his stand-up time against Gastelum and grope him as it will allow him to more efficiently employ the guile and stealth of his dynamic Jiu-Jitsu while allowing him to regulate energy output. Souza does not want this to be a stand-up affair.

Gastelum is a wrestling-based fighter with developed boxing ability. He’ll be the more explosive, quicker, precision striker who’ll use footwork to control space and employ take down defense to keep this fight upright where he can force Souza to fight out of his comfort zone. Gastelum must use movement to control distance on the Brazilian and pepper him with precision shots when Souza attempts to work his way inside to clasp. Where this fight takes place will go a long way in determining the outcome. Gastelum must be active early and force this fight on the Brazilian. It’s important for Gastelum to guide this fight into the second round where his stamina, speed and explosion will become more apparent and Souza’s chin more exposed. Souza has been touched recently and if this fight remains on the feet he will get touched again.

Gastelum opened -105 and is now +130. Patience will provide more value as we near the opening bell for the chalk chasers are sure to move on the Brazilian as we near opening bell.

Gastelum +130

I have a couple live dogs for this card. Here’s one I’ll release now because the price may contract as we near the bell for round 1.

Mackenzie Dern -220 vs. Amanda Cooper +200

Dern is the super talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist from Arizona whose father (Wellington Dias) is as highly decorated a BJJ/Judo artist as there is. Dern’s been a BJJ savant since childhood which may be both good and bad. It’s good because she’s clearly gifted and naturally talented but maybe too much so. Talent needs work ethic to blossom fully and it’s questionable how much time she devotes to developing the other important fighting skills it takes to be a complete martial artist. To say Dern is one dimensional is an understatement but to say she is supremely gifted in BJJ is also understated. Dern needs this fight on the floor which will allow her to show her Countrymen that she is a new ambassador for the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but will she be able to get the fight down to the mat? This will be the key to this outcome.

Amanda Cooper is a boxing-based fighter who’s been alternating wins and losses as she seems to be able to control stand up fights, yet she struggles with ground fighters. Cooper enters this fight knowing that this is a career opportunity and she’s trained appropriately for it. Cooper will need to use strikes to keep the oncoming Dern away from her and punish her in the process.  Cooper is keenly aware of the single dimensional dominance of Dern. It will be interesting to see how she utilizes movement, striking and cardio to maintain distance to damage Dern.

Dern’s a fighter that when the light shine’s she shows up to compete but she has questionable training habits. Cooper’s been training for this opportunity and based on the interviews I have seen from her (as well the time I’ve spent in Dern’s former gym) I feel Cooper will be able to keep this fight upright and be very competitive as a +225 underdog.

Cooper +225

5-12-18

Zaleski dos Santos -110 vs. Strickland +100

ZDS looked great in his last but he’s nowhere near as refined a fighter as is Strickland who’s only been bested by top guys in the division. Tough draw for the Brazilian here and value on the longer, younger more well-rounded fighter in my judgement. Strickland needs to work that jab on his way to octagon control.

Strickland +100

Ramos -150 vs. Hein +140

Davi Ramos looks the part and is a world class grappling based fighter who can strike with power but he can be wide and lunging as opposed to straight and precise. Hein is short, squat, experienced and comes to fight. He’s got a low sturdy Judo based attack and his wrestling and will are used to wear opponents down. I believe that’s exactly what’s going to occur here. Let’s pull Hein into the second round where his will and pace will wear the Brazilian down.

Hein +140

Roberson -110 vs. Ferreira +100

Ferriera has a papier-mache’ chin which is alarming against a world class kickboxing/striking based fighter. That said I do not believe Roberson who’s making his first trip out of the US as well his second fight in the UFC is aware of the reception he will get in Rio. I also believe Ferreira large enough and cagey enough to clasp on to the smaller man, drag him to the floor for a flopping fine time. We spoke of this fight with Gabriel Morency on the radio this week when ‘el Mutante’ was +135 or +140. I still like him at even money.

Ferreira +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Conference Finals: Prince of Wales Trophy & Campbell Bowl - 5/11/2018

5-11-18  7:29pm EST

Lighting -185 vs. Capitals +165 Series

It was my opinion that the Bruins were sluggish, old and tired in the end of the Leaf series and my zeal to back the Bolts (against the Bruins) was based on what I saw as a fading team in the Bruins and a rapidly ascending team in the Lighting.

It is my opinion that the Capitals are a focused, faster fresher team than were the Bruins and potentially still ascending themselves (I’ll need a couple games to decide that). I also feel that Washington has faced the more formidable competition entering this series especially so if you handicap goaltending.

Tampa must maintain its composure in order not to get bushwhacked here. They must play this series at full strength to leverage their considerable edge in experience, talent and depth. If they do they can control the pace and try to rattle Washington’s world class goaltender Braden Holtby who appears to be playing the best hockey of his career.

Remember puckheads that a hot goalie can single handedly steal a series by themselves so Holtby’s form must be respected. This kid’s playing with a chip on his shoulder the size of Gibraltar. Washington’s Power play is most potent and Tampa’s penalty kill is unacceptably low at 74.2% so the repercussions of sloppy play from the Lighting will cost them dearly.

Tampa steps up in competition from previous rounds.  I say that not to sling at Boston but to display that the spreads in this series are adversely affected by what Tampa did to Boston. In my judgement Tampa should have been at least +185/-190 vs Boston and against Washington I handicap them no higher than a price of -155.

By my numbers I handicap the netminders dead even but give Tampa edges in experience, defensive aptitude and faceoff’s won. Both teams have great coaches and organizations, but this is Tampa’s third conference final in the last four years, so this team knows what to do once it arrives in this spotlight.

Washington’s team is grizzled, hardened and confident after defeating the Pens but what mental condition will they tote to game one? I feel they must find a way keep the puck out of their own zone and press their own offense into the Lighting zone if they are to realize success. Washington can’t allow Tampa to press the pace and play in Washington’s end as this series could be short if that occurs. Washington MUST have its superstars shine and they as a team must knock Tampa into distraction, sloppy play and penalties or they may be overwhelmed the longer this series extends.

I feel much stronger about the Campbell Conference Championship and will pass on any releases in this Wales Conference Championship series until I can watch game one. We’re half way through the playoff campaign and there is work to be done. One does not need to wager on every game, one needs to wager when there is an advantage. I’ll exercise a little patience in this Wales Final and watch game one admitting that I have no idea of how the Caps will respond to such a monumental accomplishment. But I’ll have feelings about the following games in this series folks!

Due Diligence, Selectivity and Money Management are the fulcrums to …

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

5-11-18 11:25am EST

It took me two full rounds to figure out the errors in our accounting program. We're now corrected and the 'Profitability' tab for 2018 Hockey is now fully functioning and showing correct results to date. 

After two rounds We have good and bad news. The bad news is we are fully spent on Future positions which is disappointing. Good news is that those losses have been recorded and there remains two rounds of passionate profit we may derive from these Playoffs. There's mucho work to do and we'll be producing more bottom line daily. Stay with me and please understand that I may be posting releases anytime up until the drop of the puck (knowing that I need to give you all time to get the position wagered).

Through two rounds: 21-29   42%    +1.6u    3.33% ROI

These numbers are thin yes, but we're profitable after having a devastatingly poor first round and Futures campaign. Round II was very successful however so we carry no Futures wagers but mucho momentum into these Conference Championship rounds. 

Tonight, Bolts and Caps....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Predators vs. Jets game 7: Ultimate Passion - 5/10/2018

Welcome to game 7 in the semi-final round in the Campbell Conference. Hatred, passion and intensity heighten each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and that will be on display tonight in Nashville when the Predators host the upstart Jets.

We have Future positons working on the Predators to win the Conference (+275 in an open ended parlay or a +350 ticket depending on when you puked on the Preds) and the Cup (+700 for 2 units) so tonight’s game is most important.

No positions tonight, We'll work to get those Predators into the Conference Final. Go Predators!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Game 6 Passion: Caps/Pens & Preds/Jets - 5/7/2018

5-7-9:40pm EST

Jets -150

1u 2 team /Open parlay

Das Capitals +175

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Kentucky Derby: 2 Horse Pro's haggle - 5/4/2018

Welcome to the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby. Each year I gather two professional pony prognosticators to break down the derby in dialogue form. These prognosticators are not just horse happy handicappers but dedicated Nag enthusiasts that have history and result behind them.

Brutha Shue, a professional horse handicapper from New Orleans exposes us to his metric based nag analysis and decades of experience chasing thoroughbreds to the winners circle. Joining Shue this year (and hopefully for years to come)  is another professional horse savant JimmyQ. I’ve been tailing these two horse handicappers for years and ca say that there is no reason for me to ever handicap a horse race as long as I have these two advising me.

As usual I put these two to task and invite each to provide their take on how to profit off of these Thoroughbred ponies in this Triple Crown of racing.  First up the Kentucky Derby.

The discussion begins as always with Brutha Shue e mailing Past Performance data to JimmyQ.

JimmyQ- Happy Derby Week Shoe! I have ridden the likes of Audible from the Holy Bull to the Florida Derby and will do the same thru the Kentucky Derby.  This horse transformed into a champion between last December and February.  I don't think we've seen the best of him yet and he could be set to peak this Saturday evening at 6:34 EST. Plain and Simple, if he wins I will clean up.  A positive sign that Javier Castellano and his agent have decided he will ride Audible.  Bad news is Javier has never won this race. With that said, I'm confident he is ready to change that.  What do you make of the Dubai shipper?

Shue- Overseas shippers have never won the Derby.  And we can never get any fractions or calls from the overseas tracks.  However, "Tracks" can and does if that particular track is a member.  Folks have been really cooing over this Mendelssohn entry - he did run one race here winning the BC Juvenile Turf.

(Shue sends Q more pony poop in the form of charts and forms)

JimmyQ- Hey Shue The Trakus chart for his race was impressive but with that said there is still a lot of preparation to be done before deciding if he loved that Medan surface or if he truly is a ball breaker.  It was great to see after the post-position draw that none of the big contenders were compromised based on the post they drew.  I'm going to spend the next couple of days combing thru the PP's, watching replays, and looking at the Trakus numbers.  What does your game plan look like so that one or both of us can hit it big come Saturday?

Shue- Well Q, I just got done throwing up after seeing that 4 of my 6 horses are in the auxiliary gate.  Need the PP's to finalize my wagers, but am absolutely sick about the draw for my nags.  At the moment, AUDIBLE (8-1) still my top pick, followed by MAGNUM MOON (6-1) and VINO ROSSO (12-1).  Next tier is NOBLE INDY (30-1), MY BOY JACK (30-1) then SOLOMINI (30-1).  Lots of value here.  Noble Indy, who I've really takin' a shine to lately - gets hosed in the #19 hole.  And because he likes to be on the lead, he'll have to spend lots of energy to cross some really, really fast horses out of the gate.  Crap!!!  And leaving MENDELLSSHON (5-1) off my board.  Those overseas shippers never hit - and still going with that that trend.  But by far, far and away - he is the most handsome of the bunch.  Does that pay?

After short congratulations to Jimmy@ on the borth of his new daughter just this week we get back to the actual releases from each man. I want to personally thank each horse pro and tip my hat to Q who provided us this great insight during a most important family week. Thanks Q and Shue.

Shue-OK boys, here's my thinking.  AUDIBLE (8-1) is still my guy.  Not interested in JUSTIFY (3-1) at all.  Yeah, he looks pretty and all - but I just think he's too lightly raced and he's gonna get out muscled somewhere along the way.  If he wins, he'll have to go gate to wire to do it - otherwise he'll be in traffic and won't be able to handle the congestion IMHO.  VINO ROSSO (12-1) another one I like.  Battle tested and a gamer I believe - like him.  MAGNUM MOON (6-1) another solid play.  He ran the fastest closing furlong of all of the entrants - 12 seconds flat!  Boys, that is buzzing along!  He'll be on the lead as well along with Justify, MENDELLSSHON (5-1) and PROMISES FULFILLED (30-1).  SOLOMINI (30-1) is another game horse.  Is always, always there - guts it out every time.  I've taken my 'across the board' off of NOBLE INDY (30-1) simply because I think he'll expend too much effort coming from the 19 post to be on the lead, and that he won't be able to stay up with the leaders coming down the stretch.  I really think this is the deepest Derby field in years.  Lots of quality and would not surprise me one bit if a 30-1 shot won - like MY BOY JACK (30-1).  He’s a deep, deep closer who could very well get there if the pace is 22ish.  Desormeaux just needs to wait a lil bit longer before he pushes the button.  And at 30-1, the price is right!  Here's my action:

$10 W-P-S #5 Audible (8-1)                    $30.00

$10 W-P-S #10 My Boy Jack (30-1)         $30.00

$10 W-P-S #17 Solomini (30-1)                $30.00

$10 W-P-S #18 Vino Rosso (12-1)           $30.00

 $2 Exacta BOX (5 horses)                        $40.00

5 Audible 10 My Boy Jack 16 Magnum Moon 17 Solomini 18 Vino Rosso

$1 Trifecta BOX (5 horses)                       $60.00

5 Audible 10 My Boy Jack 16 Magnum Moon 17 Solomini 18 Vino Rosso

  Total Invested                                           $220.00

JimmyQ- Great stuff Drew & Best of Luck with your selections.  As I type this, I'm holding my new baby girl in one arm and navigating the keyboard with the other.  Life is a little more complicated these days but in an exciting & fantastic way.  On to my selections, and we do have one big thing in common and that is the fact that many of our wagers are going thru AUDIBLE (8-1).  He too is my Top Pick and I'm very open about the fact that if he wins Kentucky Derby 144, I will clean up.  He has been very impressive and seems to be getting bigger and stronger with each race.  Others that I like that I'll be pairing him with are JUSTIFY (3-1).  He has the looks of another Bob Baffert monster and if he does win this race we can still make some money on this one.  VINO ROSSO (12-1)-  Impressive win in the Wood Memorial and another good one from the Todd Pletcher Barn.  HOFBURG (20-1)- Ran a very respectable second in the Florida Derby.  Lightly raced horse that could continue to be on the improve.  FREE DROP BILLY (30-1) -  If the track is wet come race time I'll be throwing him in underneath as I think he likes an off track and have to hope that 2 hole doesn't get him in a ton of early trouble.  This should be an incredible race with such an impressive group of contenders and in the end let's hope they are crowning AUDIBLE the 2018 Kentucky Derby Champion!

$10 W- $20 P- $40 S  #5  Audible (8-1)

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #7 Justify

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #18 Vino Rosso

$10 Ex Box-  #5 Audible/  #9  Hofburg

$5   Ex Box-  #5 Audible/ #2  Free Drop Billy

Total Wager  $140.00

 

May 5th is the 144th Kentucky Derby and I know I’ll be using both the #5 Audible (because these two advise it) as well #18 Vino Rosso for many reasons. Good Luck to all and cash those tickets

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs B's/Bolts & Sharks/Knights - 4/28/2018

5-3-18 8:12pm EST

Preds +130 W

5-2-18 6:31pm EST

I believe the ascending team is the Bolts

Lighting +140 W

check back for later game release if any

5-1-18 6:37pm EST

We had two games go as hoped for last evening with the Bolts shaking off rust to return to solid team hockey and the Golden Knights showing the hockey world that they are to be considered when thinking of whom may hoist come June. Series wagers made yesterday on Las Vegas and Tampa Bay now provide market advantage and while there’s hockey to play those tickets are working.

We’re back to the daily grind this evening. I’m late every day posting these positions because the chalk chasers wait until the last minute to fire and I want every penny of potential value I can get on these ugly mangy mutts. Good Luck tonight puck Enthusiasts….

Caps +155 W

Preds +130 L

Road scum

4-30-18 6:24pm EST

Lighting vs. Bruins

I believe the Tampa Bay Lighting to be the better, more complete team in this series than Boston which is why I took a 2.1unit position on them -140 when the series began. The -140 price seemed (and still seems) unusually low to my handicapping of this series so I moved at that time because I did not want to miss that series value had the Bolts won game one.

I also made it clear that because of the lengthy rest for the Bolts after their series with the Devils that the Bruins were live in game one which added +1.5u to the bottom line thank you. This was more a fade of Tampa in that first game than a testimonial to the Bruins.

Tonight, we put our money where our mouth is as we’ll ADD another unit of play on the Bolts for the series +165 which makes our total investment in the Lightning for the series 3.1* units invested for a return of 3.15 units so roughly +101 for the series. If we liked the Bolts -140 then we surely like them +101 even though they’re down in the series 0-1. There’s oh so much more hockey to play in this series puckheads…..trust me, fade me or curse me but this series is not what it seems right now. (*tracked in the Futures page)

Lighting +165 Series

Sharks vs. Golden Knights

If we could have broadcast the Knights -120 prior their game 1 route of the Sharks all puckheads near and far would have called us wise.

I’ll take .50 unit on the Knights -120 now. If the Knights win tonight’s game then I have a great price on them and they’ll have earned back home ice advantage. If the Sharks win tonight’s contest I’ll add another half unit series wager on the Knights prior to game four at even greater pricing which will give me a full unit of investment on them at a plus money price!!

I believe Vegas is a solid hockey club.

Knights -120 Series (half)

 

Sunday Passion

Pens +125

Jets +155

(but wait as these road mutts gain value as we near the drop of frozen rubber)

Puck Passion Round II

The second round is beginning more to expectation as we stand 2-1 +1.6u thus far but it's early.

Before I dish dregs, here’s a few insights:

Most important is Playoff goaltending. As far as I’m concerned Murray, Hellebyck and Fleury are the top three Minders at this point in Round II. Next are my somewhat undecided views on Jones and Holtby. I’ll watch them another game or so before committing to a semi-permanent playoff view on them. Finally, is the red alert category which falls to Rinne and Rask. I believe Rinne and Rask are showing some sign of age, skill erosion and tightness. Rinne’s history is to over perform in the regular season only to putter out in the playoffs. Rask has had a great career but he could completely buckle under the pressure the Bolts are going to bring.

The Preds don’t seem physical enough for the Jets nor fast enough for the Knights and unless Rinne goes from decent to dominant there’s reason to believe my other Future investment has work to do. Good thing is that there’s still plenty of puck to play.

The Knights (and me) have every reason to believe that they have ALL it takes to Hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup provided Fleury holds up. I’ve had reservations on Fleury’s ability to navigate a whole playoff run on his own for years. He’s been solid this year but I’ll need another series or two before I’m able to overcome that suspicion. That said, I see no chink in that armour….

I don’t like to contradict wagers on opposing sides (open Bruin parlay and 2.1u wager Lighting Series) unless it warranted. In this case I handicap the Bolts closer to a -185 chalk against these B’s and therefore the move was made. In other instances, a change of circumstances like injury, missed weight or unforeseen occurrence may warrant a reaction. In this case I feel the Bolts will display more depth and will control the series against the Bruins in all but game one. If the Bolts go down 0-1 count on another unit of series investment on them at increased odds. We’ll see.

I don’t count out the Capitals yet as this may seem the same old Caps but I need to see a couple more game before I waver on Washington…we may not be done here either.

Puck Passion and the greatest Tournament in sport.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Rd. 2: Eight Skate - 4/26/2018

4-27-18 6:28pm EST

Jets +145 W

4-26-18 6:15pm EST

Penguins +115 W

Sharks +130 L

In each of this evening's contests I feel the home team wins the series but is ripe for tonight. I'll invest in the road mutt and trust they can swipe the first one which will enhance the series odds in favor of the deeper better team. I forsee a similar move tomorrow. 

Series Release

 Lighting -140

2.1u  to win 1.5u

I'm taking this now and may add to it later but the price is aggressively low so I want to insure it.

This and other series wagers will be moved to the Futures page* found by accessing the Hockey tab at the top of this page.

 

Round I results were disappointing at 8-14 -6.6 u.

No NHL Playoff season goes the same except to say that I manage to end up on a profitable note and thatis the plan for 2018. Currently all the Futures that ost have been graded as such but also the working Future wagers are graded as losers until which time they mature when it then records as profit ot loss so look to each slate page for updated results. I'll have a few other Series wagers that will be released in this section but actually recorded in the Futures page as Round I series releases are located there also. 

I'll have daily releases posted at least 10-15 minutes prior to Puck drop so check in. It's important to allow the home team chalk chasers to add value to our positions....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming