UFC FN 203 Rodriguez vs. Penn: Phoenix Rising - 1/14/2017

Welcome Fight enthusiasts to UFC FN 203.  The overall level of talent on this card is already thin enough and now the NFL moves the Steelers/Chiefs to Sunday evening which will surely squelch the UFC viewership and walk up attendance. We released Bryan Caraway +220 days before he pulled out with injury.  This forced us into converting this to a free event based on the lack of depth/talent on the card.  In any event our job is not to assess the quality of the card but to calibrate capable canines that cash tickets in order to pad profitability.  We’ll take a measured approach to Sunday night’s fights especially since we’ll be focused on the Steeler/Chief game running at the same time.  Good thing we’ll be at the Westage in Las Vegas where we may watch both events and hopefully harvest hundies.

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Klose -250 vs. Powell +210

Powell enters Klose’s home town with plenty to prove.  Powell will be the much taller, longer man in the Octagon Sunday night and his fight advantage depends on his ability to get Klose in close and try to force this fight to the floor.  Powell’s rubber guard and long angular appendages allow for him to effectively kick and strike though he is comprehensively un-athletic and gangly with his stand up other than some effective leg striking.  Klose on the other hand is a hand grenade.  He is compact, explosive, packs dynamic power and is exceptionally athletic.  Though we feel Drakkar may have some butterflies in the early going, once this turns into a fight we believe he will be able to keep this affair standing and eventually wear the longer less capable fighter down.  We released this to clients several days ago Klose -210 so this price is steep but we do like Klose to get his hand raised here.  Klose ITD +170 may also be an effective way to gain value as this price ascends…for over -250 we say play the prop.

Klose -250

Saenz -165 vs. Mendes +145

Two Phoenicians are going to fight to the finish in this one.  Frankie Saenz is a wrestling based fighter who I s coming off of a couple straight losses albeit to Faber and Wineland, capable competition indeed.  Frankie is the older cat that we feel must utilize his stand up striking in order to come out of this fight victorious.  It’s not that Saenz’s striking is that polished but he does own advantage over ‘Tanquinho’ who is still developing his striking. Saenz does own a striking advantage over Mendes the BJJ specialist yet Mendes’ BJJ is on such an elite level that we can almost guaranty Saenz will not want to flop with him on the floor.  Mendes has been singularly focused on this fight, his opponent, and this opportunity.  While Saenz sports an impressive 74% take down defense we feel that the Mendes will eventually manage to make this a maul on the mat.  If/When this fight goes to the floor (and we believe it will) it will be Mendes that does the mopping.

Tanquinho +145

Lauzon -120 vs. Held +100

Here’s another that we E mailed Clients when Held was +120.  These two guys are eight years apart so while Joe-Lo sports the experience, the guile and a more well-rounded MMA arsenal it is Held we believe that will own advantage in BJJ (yes we do acknowledge Joe’s dynamic BJJ capability but he is a mixed martial artist that utilizes BJJ while Held is an accomplished BJJ artist striving to complete his MMA game).  In fight terms, Held today is almost exactly what Joe was ten years ago, raw, dynamically talented with plenty of development yet to come.  In this his sophomore outing in the UFC we believe it will be Held that will pry advantage from the older cagier Lauzon in this fight.  IN our judgement Held will manage to compete just enough with Lauzon’s stand up to be able to drag him to the dregs for a flop on the floor and eventually wear down Lauzon, a fighter we respect tremendously but believe is on the downside of his outstanding career.  

Held +100

Rodriguez -440 vs. Penn +350

We’ve said this for years and witnessed it for decades…the once great world class fighting talent well past his/her prime who does not know when to stop fighting.  While we do respect BJ Penn and accept the ‘Phenom” as an all-time great we must also say that every dog has their day and Penn’s day is unfortunately long gone.  Could he come out Sunday and snap some Sunday shots on Yair and stun the MMA world?  Sure, but we give him oh so slim a shot to accomplish this.  Penn is yearning for the lights, the rush of competition, the high one gets when that cage door slams and at thirty eight years old he is at the top of his mental game.  The issue is (and the issue with all forlorn fighters) is that the body can’t perform what the mind is instructing it to do.  Rodriguez is a flashy fighter high on athleticism and short on power but he’ll enter the Octagon fourteen years younger than his opponent.  Now we expect no easy outing for Yair as Penn is still beguiling, experienced and tough as a twenty year old saddle but his window in this fight is pretty narrow.  Find a way to put the kid to sleep or take a tremendous amount of punishment and we believe it will be the latter. 

Over 2.5 -110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming 


GambLou.com: It's Business! - 1/10/2017

Welcome to GambLou.com 2017. As we embark on the new 2017 fiscal year let’s highlight the Sporting events we work passionately then provide a history of our profitability. 

2017 begins with our comprehensive UFC coverage which opens up January 15th in Phoenix with UFC Fight Night.  We offer a handful of free cards throughout the year and UFC FN 103 will be a card we offer free to any interested readers.  Further UFC cards may be accessed by purchasing tokens to pay for the fight card. 

Fight Cards are $27.99 for individual cards, Packages of 25 tokens (our Silver package $125.00) may be purchased which drops the token price to $5.00 or $25.00 per fight card.  The Gold package offers dedicated GambLou Enthusiasts 125 tokens at an average cost of $4.00 per token making any single fight card an affordable $20.00 per card.

The “Profitability” tab at the top of the GambLou webpage lists all results by the year as well our lifetime results.  Those wanting to search by the specific event may do so there and our “Archives” will display each event release by release. 

UFC 2014,15,16

Record:  231-303     Win %:  43.26%     Units won:  + 54.50 (100per)               +11.30 ROI

NFL 2014-2016

Record:  146-99      Win %:  59.59%       Units won +43.10 (1k per)                    +16.00 ROI

NHL 2016

(Past profitability/results for the NHL were outstanding but unrecorded)

Record:  37-39       Win %:  48.68           Units won: +15.55 (100 per)                  +15.16 ROI

College World Series 2016

Record 6-8              Win %:  42.86%       Units won:  +1.15 (100 per)                    +8.10 ROI

We Work ONLY select sporting events that we have deep passion for as our focus at Gamblou.com is to Narrow our  Focus and Increase our Expertise.  One look at our documented results will display that the fulcrums of our success:  dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and precision Money Management  all coupled with our four decades of Profitable Sports Gaming will provide any interested party with long term profitability.  It’s Business!

Gamblou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Money Morning: 2016 UFC/NFL Summary - 1/2/2017

Happy New Year Gaming Enthusiasts. 

In the pursuit of Profitable Sports Gaming it’s mandatory that we run our gaming as a business.  First and foremost, the sports work are the ones we know and have deep passion for.  We regard ourselves as specialists in the sporting events we work as opposed to those we consider ‘generalists’ who work every sport because they don’t earn unless they sell.  This is an antiquated and selfish from of business practice that serves well the ‘Capper but not so much the Client.  Our single point of focus is to provide the GambLou.com Client our expertise in order for them to invest their dollars for a return on investment.  It’s business!

We utilize our time and energy with appropriating dynamic Due Diligence towards the specialized sporting events we work.  We utilize supreme Selectivity in releasing positions for our high is in making deposits as opposed to making bets.  Finally, we’re meticulous about Money Management as each Monday we account for the week’s activity by publishing out Money Morning article. 

Our webpage also displays Archives where all past selections, the date/time of such selection, the wager amount on said selection and finally the result are posted. 

The Profitability tab on the top of our webpage displays our lifetime Win Percentages (per sport), the gross units won (in UFC a unit is 100.00 dollars but in the NFL a unit is $1,000.00 so we track by the unit) and finally the Return on Investment (ROI) so any prospective Clients have everything they need to research our business model appropriately. 

2016 NFL (Regular Season)

Final results for the NFL Regular Season:  40-27; 59.7%;     +9.5U (1K per);    12.86% ROI

2016 UFC

Final results for the UFC 2016:                    74-109; 40.44%; +7.56U (100 per); 4.86% ROI

In 2016 we reduced the number of selections released through the year which was a goal of ours.  However our win percentage dropped as did gross profits.  Profitable Sports Gaming can be a cruel endeavor and while we devoted more effort into winning in 2016 our numbers show a decline.  Clearly we’ll be focused on returning to the 47%/48% win percentage we’re been used to in the UFC in 2017.

Gamblou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 207 Nunes vs. Rousey: Hip Toss or Hammer Fists? - 12/30/2016

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to the final card of 2016.  This has been a challenging year for us as GambLou.com UFC win percentages were not quite up to our dynamic for diagnosing dangerous dogs.  That said we have been white hot in November/December and we plan on finishing the year with a deposit that will prop our profitability while setting us up with momentum for 2017.

Here is today's free selection and understand that our whole UFC 207 card is available for a paultry $27.99.  If we lay an egg we'll credit your account the next UFC card which happens to take place here in Phoenix Jan. 15th.  Enjoy the Fights!

UFC 2016:  73-105 41% win; +10.11U;  6.95% ROI

 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Cruz -200 vs. Garbrandt +180

We could almost take the write up we had last week for Jouban vs. Perry,  change the names and write the same piece.  Mixed Martial Artist against a street fighter (now we will give Garbrandt more credit than Perry for Cody does have a decent wrestling base and can move) is not advantageous in any way shape or form for the brawler unless of course said brawler can snap a Sunday shot to the snout of the opponent.  Garbrandt is edgy, wound tight and will be overwhelmed by the far superior mixed martial artist here.  Garbrandt is being rushed into this spot too soon against a guy in Cruz who has in fact had the chance to rattle off a few fights in a row without injury. Cruz, who in our opinion is a top talent both inside and outside of the Octagon is going to make the slugger work, take him deep (for this is a five round fight) in order to slow him, sap the snap in his shots then submit him to slumber land.

Cruz ITD +260 (half)

Borg -135 vs. Smolka +125

Usually when fighters miss weight there is an immediate reaction to fade such fighter which in most cases is justified.  In the case of Ray Borg (and a few recent fights in which fighters have missed weight badly) it’s our position that when he realized that he was going to miss….he stopped the cut and in essence waived the 20% of his purse in order to protect his fight integrity which we do take issue with (as opposed to Johny Hendricks who came a couple pounds within weight making him a most dubious consideration).  It’s one thing to miss weight and give up 20% BUT another to do both then drop the fight!  Like Oliveira in his last outing against Brooks (we had strong words vs. Oliveira then for we consider missing weight in this fashion to be cheating) Borg is manipulating the system and it does not sit well.  That said, he is the stronger fighter in this spot and by stopping the cut we feel he has decided to cut bait, give up 20% of his purse but remain prepared and in advantageous positon for this tilt.  Yes, he’s cheating but we had already released him -125 some days earlier and will now hold our position and trust he is ready to get his arm raised.  At least we hold advantage over current market pricing….

Borg -125

Oliveira -135 vs. Means +125

Means opened up -140 and has been wagered into mangy mutt status much to our delight.  Oliveira owns advantage on the floor while Means will own substantial advantage in the stand-up/striking.  “Styles make Fights’ as Angelo Dundee would chime and this one looks to be a real dandy.  We feel Oliveira, after missing weight by an ocean in his last fight (he tried dropping to 155) will have a bit of trouble with Means’ size, his Muay Thai and his durability.  Oliveira must get this fight to the floor which may not be easy for him.  We believe he’ll have trouble with the larger man in Means who got a taste of what’s needed to improve his take down D when Matt Brown wiped the floor with him.  We don’t believe Oliveira is any Matt Brown.

Means +125

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


GambLou: NFL Profitability - 12/27/2016

 

NFL Week 16 results 2-2 - .25u

NFL Season Results: 38-25  60.3%;  +9.70u (at 1K per unit);  13.53% ROI*

GambLou.com

Profitable  Sports Gaming

*all GambLou.com results for all sports may be accessed by hitting the "Profitability" tab at the top of our webpage.


UFC Fox22 Van Zant vs. Waterson: Samba in Sac-town - 12/17/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a Fox UFC card that may be a bit shy of highbrow, top ranked fighters but a card we feel is chock full of profitable pup potential.  Our role of course is to uncover fighters that are cycling at the top of their potential, are entering the Octagon tonight prepared to present peak performance as well offer gaming value in the process.  As always we’ll remain selective with the single point of focus being to realize profitability from this fight card.  We’ll have no release on the main event unless something unusual occurs as we have been waffeling on each fighter which is a great recipe for ‘PASS’.

Today's free releases is below.  As each fight we've released begins we will post our write up on this page for your review.  Good luck to all today and 'Swing it Easy'.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Gall -140 vs. Northcutt +130

We released Northcutt earlier in the week at the same price as todays.  This fight is a great contrast for the New Jersey fighter is direct, brash and is trying to bully his opponent who is more a smiling assassin who possesses a cunning passive aggressive.  Gall believes that the Pretty Boy from Texas is all muscle and no mixed martial artist but we feel he’d better recognize for he’s in a tough spot tonight ol’ Mickey Gall.  Gall is a young grappler with fine talent and a deadly ground game.  His single goal is to grasp Sage and get this fight against the fence then to the floor for a finish.  While Gall is capable at his craft he is relatively untested when it comes to real UFC competition, he’s one dimensional in that the ground game is his only way to win and he’ll absolutely want to avoid time on his feet against Northcutt.  Northcutt does appear to be a glamor boy we’ll give you that but he has faced superior competition while in the UFC.  Northcutt’s been a fighter mixing it up in karate competitions since he was in diapers and his fight experience must not be underestimated nor should his understanding that he must improve his BJJ/wrestling in order to be a complete fighter in today’s UFC.  In short we feel both of these guys have a great future in the organization but it’s our belief that Northcutt is further along in development than is Gall.

Northcutt +130               Northcutt ITD +230 (half)

Perry -130 vs. Jouban +120

Perry is a politically incorrect, young reckless wide swinging power punching maniac that would excel as much in the street as he does in the Octagon with its rules of confinement!  Perry’s opponent is more a technical mixed martial artist who is a striker and also quite comfortable on the feet.  Jouban will be the taller fighter and the southpaw will have reach advantages with arms and legs over the brawler.  We view this fight as a display of what mixed martial arts represents as we see Perry as being made for Jouban tonight for he’ll come straight in to make this a fight.  If Jouban can keep his composure and utilize the art of fighting, keep his distance and frustrate Perry into rushing into some calculated counters this fight should display that brawlers really can’t compete with trained mixed martial artists.  This fight needs to go well into the second round in order for Jouban to begin to display that precision beats power.

                Jouban +120                              Jouban/Perry Over 1.5 -120 (half) 

Emmett -165 vs. Holtzman +155

Emmett is the home town Alpha Male product that enters the Octagon with a solid wrestling base, is tough as nails and showed quite well in his short notice victory over Tuck in his last so he is the worthy chalk here but we can’t help but handicap some distraction for the up and comer as he deals with family, home, ticket requests and local interviews.  Holtzman, the MMALab prospect from Phoenix is a durable fighter, has power in his punches and brings a solid wrestling base.  ‘Hot Sauce’ will be the much larger man in the fight; he’s a complete fighter and should own advantage in size, power and experience.  We see Holtzman employing his grinding style to make this fight ugly, take it deep and use his size to grind out the worthy home town kid.

Holtzman +155

Covington -360 vs. Barberena +320

Colby Covington is a talented wrestling based fighter that is steadily improving his stand up and complimentary offensive fight arsenal on his way to potential greatness.  This we do recognize as a possibility yet we feel so much better when fighters remain focused on the ‘task at hand’ rather than trying to line up future fights beyond one’s immediate challenge which is what Colby has done.  Overlooking opponents is never something a fighter should do and we believe this is exactly what Covington is doing…..judging the book by the cover.  Bryan Barberena enters the Octagon tonight a most underappreciated fighter.  His history is steeped with matchups against fighters he was given no chance against yet he’s overcome each challenge and arrives here tonight +320.  Barberena and Covington are going to deliver a fight tonight heavy in technicality and short on excitement for we expect a dirty, grimy maul on fence and floor.  We look forward to this fight.

Barberena pts. Handicap +3.5 +170 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 206 Holloway vs. Pettis: Tapout in Toronto - 12/10/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 206 and it surely could not have arrived any sooner!  Last night’s UFC FN presented a 12 card slate where Fav’s won each fight.  This has not happened in some years yet we sensed an off card which is why we released only two half unit positions.  Looking back at our plan to address last night’s fight card in reserved fashion saved us money and in turn now allows us to allocate those saved units into UFC 206; a fight card we believe will present us profitable pups.  

Here is our free release for UFC 206, we have a handful of other fights released on today's card.  If you want to profit invest a few to make many! Good Luck today

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Holloway -230 vs. Pettis +210

Featherweight fervor treats Toronto in tonight’s top tussle.  Anthony Pettis, a former champion at Lightweight drops into the Feathers to try to disturb the division.  His game is striking in space and taking the fight to the opponent and he is lethal at implementing that plan.  Our issues with Anthony are his difficulties dropping to this class (and he in fact did miss weight yesterday by 3 lbs.), his confidence level after being run from the 155’s and his outside distractions.  Pettis is fighting for mucho but again trying to regain glory against a young lion that is simply trying to attain his own glory is a difficult proposition.  Max Holloway is the younger, taller, fresher fighter.  He’s on a winning run which he has earned by systematically pressuring his opponents with a fervor of flurries using arms, legs, elbows and knees.  Pettis has more experience in grappling and wrestling and we feel this could well be his plan of attack had he arrived at weight for this fight.  Missing weight makes us think that Pettis is going to come out here tonight like mike Tyson and try to get Max out early before he runs out of juice.  Holloway will respond in any situation as he always dopes, by coming forward and striking.  This one is going to be a dandy but in the end we see Max as just too much in this spot.  We released this yesterday immediately upon the news of Pettis packing those pounds.

Holloway +190 

Choi -210 vs. Swanson +190

We believe that Choi sports unusual offensive talent.  His size alone is amazing but then couple that with his speed, skill and precision punching and you have a destructive machine who’s only area of improvement will be to gain more experience against top level UFC fighters and round one of that challenge starts tonight.  Choi’s challenge tonight is to step well up in fight class and try to overtake a fighter in Cub Swanson that is well schooled, Octagon seasoned and aware that this is perhaps his last real shot to gain access to the top 5 of his weight class.  Swanson is keenly aware that in order to test the Super Boy he’ll need to take away the younger strikers distance, grind on him and try to get this fight to the mat where Swanson may sap some of the speed and power from the Kid and try to take the fight deep in order to use his acumen to try to find a way to crush the Korean.  As we assess this fight we do feel it is only a matter of time before the Super Boy is able to control Cub but this is going to be well more competitive than most think. 

Over 1.5 -150 (half)

Cirkunov -110 vs. Krylov +100

A Latvian and a Ukrainian will step in the Octagon to decide which style of fighting is going to win tonight.  Cirkunov is the much thicker larger fighter.  His game will require him to clasp the taller Krylov, force him into the fence or even better slam the striker to the ground for some pound.  Krylov surely knows how this fight looks to the Latvian.  Krylov’s advantages will be his youth, his speed and his precision punching for he’ll need to utilize all of those tools in order to keep Cirkunov from getting inside for the slow dance.  This could well be one of the most interesting fights on the card and each fighter is capable and competitive which is why we believe this is no five minute drill…

Over 1.5 +115

Letourneau -150 vs. Perreira +140

We released this fight yesterday as soon as Letourneau missed weight.  Dropping to 115 is no easy task for her and although she survived the cut and looked competent against Joanna this tax of losing unusual weight can take its toll and that’s why we jumped the price.  Perreira is a short stubby fire hydrant of a fighter.  This will surely be a huge step up for her as this is the first fight out of Brazil for her, she takes the fight on short notice and is giving away size yet she’s a decade younger, is direct and aggressive in approach and swings for the stars.  Flyer

Perreira +155

Gagnon -150 vs. Lopez +140

Mitch Gagnon has been on the shelf since Dec. 2014 and now there’s a fight card in his hometown and he shows up rough n ready to go.  He’s had to overcome a neck injury granted and his past level of competition is more reputable than that of his opponent but we feel the BJJ artist/grappler may be in deep water tonight with his opponent Matt Lopez.  Lopez got schooled in his debut against Yahya.  He’s since not only learned from straying from his strength in that fight but he’s changed camps and become focused as a professional fighter.  Like most football teams improve greatly between the first and second game we look for an improved performance from Lopez a wrestling based fighter who will be the larger man in the Octagon tonight.  Lopez will also hold advantage standing in our view and his leg and arm reach is substantial.  Two lefties are going to go but we feel it will be Lopez whose arm is raised at the end of this one.

Lopez +140

Cerrone -275 vs. Brown +250

Two warriors meet in a fight that all MMA Enthusiasts will enjoy for there’s bound to be stringent striking in this one.  Cowboy Cerrone is a great young character as well an accomplished Mixed Martial Artist.  Cerrone trains nonstop, fights often and in between all of that belts a few cold Bud’s in the process.  His game is better rounded and more skilled than that of Matt Brown and we no longer really need to question whether Donald belongs at 170 for the results speak for themselves.  He’s a worthy chalk tonight over Matt Brown yet we feel the current market price on this fight is obscured by the popularity of Cerrone.  Meanwhile at 35 year old Brown is off maybe the worse performance of his career and enters tonight with laser focus and the realization that a loss here free falls him into gatekeeper status in a division stacked with talent.  We love the desperation, focus and style of Brown’s fight game tonight as well we like his price and believe he must attack the Cowboy, make this an inside maul complete with elbows, clinches and clasps.  Brown’s been calling Cerrone a bully and at his age Brown surely understands how to treat a bully….by ‘bullying the bully’ baby

Brown +250 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


UFC FN Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov: Feast for the Beast? - 12/9/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN from Albany.  We’ve decided to roll both cards into one slate for our loyal subscribers for the Albany card upon our dedicated due diligence seems to be missing mangy mutts.  We’ll regard Friday’s card as an undercard to Saturdays UFC 206 extravaganza  from Toronto and therefore wager conservatively today in order to allocate the totality of our tokens toward the tikes tussling in Toronto. 

Here is today's free release and you may access the rest of today's releases as well ALL OF our UFC 206 releases tomorrow for the price of one card: $27.99. 

Last week we realized a 3-2 +340.00 result.  Twenty eight smackers seems a reasonable price to pay to collect $345.00!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Burgos -160 vs. Trator +150

This is an interesting line.  Burgos is the chalk but his advantage seems based on power and size for Trator owns advantage in the categories we feel are more important in this spot.  Trator is the well more experienced fighter and is the beneficiary of a full camp while his opponent is coming in for his debut on two weeks of notice.  Our feeling is that if the bell for round two rings and Trator marches out there then the flavor of this fight favors him as he’ll need to weather the early storm Burgos is bound to bring.  Trator is more accomplished mixed martial artist here and with a little defensive improvement should be able to get this fight into the later rounds in order to wear his opponent down and ultimately gain advantage using guile, conditioning and experience.

Trator +150 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning UFC TUF Re$ult$ - 12/3/2016

Saturday's UFC TUF results 3-2 + 345.00 

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

To veiw our write ups for this card please see below.  We're peaking as we reach the end of fiscal year 2016. We offer single and multiple card opportunities.

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the home stretch of the 2016 fiscal year for us in the UFC.  This year our win percentage has been down when comparing them to past years and that does not sit well here at GambLou HQ.  Our single point of focus in December is to in a matriculated approach profit for the month and take our decent numbers up to semi-acceptable then turn the page and move to next year.  So with precision focus on the fights let’s start our end of the year run today.  I’ll also state that we appreciate you who pay to view our results and we scour those results carefully.  If we lay an egg for you we’ll deposit another UFC fight card into your account so your dough isn’t lost. 

If you start with us in 2017 and stay with us all year long you will earn money wagering on the UFC. That’s our pledge and we stand behind our words.  Truth.

-Let’s Fight-

Johnson -840 vs. Elliott +660

We believe and have acclaimed Mighty Mouse as the top P4P fighter in the UFC for a number of years now and well before it was as vogue as it is now to.  That said this is the UFC and we also have proclaimed that it is tough to keep taking out top contenders one after one in a row without a tomato can inserted somewhere in between to allow the body and mind to take a bit of a break.  Johnson’s speed, precision, accumulated power coupled with his dynamic abilities on the floor make him a complete and destructive fighting machine.  We're uncomfortable however with his talk of tonight’s after hour’s party and his quest for the most consecutive title defenses in UFC history and while tjose are worthy goals we feel these acknoledgements also contribute to his potential distraction leading into tonight’s fight.  Is Johnson ripe for an upset or even in for a tough grinding fight tonight?  We feel so.

Tim Elliott arrives in the cage the less sophisticated fighter yet the taller, longer southpaw swinger.  Elliott’s style is quite unorthodox for he is a huge fighter for the Flyweight division, is very well rounded in his fight arsenal and relies on his grit, heart and toughness to get his hand raised.   Further and the reason we really like the Kansan tonight is that this is his return to the UFC and he realizes the opportunity to provide for his family doing what he loves as opposed to hitting the want ads.  In his first stint in the organization he was tossed in to tussles with the likes of guys named Makovsky, Benavidez (yes Joe), and Bagautinov and while he got schooled in those fights and was cut the benefits of the experience form those fights and the mentality to get back to the organization for this title fight are not being overlooked by Elliott…in fact they are fueling his belief that this is his time.  In interviews he basically says what we have just spelled out here so we know we’ll get his top effort tonight.  The kid is smart, knows his opportunity and is prepared to go to battle with the hope of bagging the belt.  We believe Elliott shows very well tonight in a matchup that may well show that Elliott belongs at the top of the division.

Elliott +680  (.25 u released 12-2-16)

Fight starts Rd. 5 +105 (released yesterday)

Masvidal -225 vs. Ellenberger +205

Jake Ellenberger found out in his last fight that a desperate aggressive approach to the opponent in the Octagon can reap rich reward.  Jorge Masvidal has been hearing from everyone (including yours truly) that he needs to fight with a sense of urgency.  Now we all know that’s easy for Uncle Louie to say sitting on the sofa watching these professionals compete but the fact remains….the Organization pays for active exciting results that bolsters the Blokes in the bleachers.  Slick, counterpunching split decisions don’t go far for viewers, the ratings or a fighter’s ability to move up in the hierarchy of competition as well as pay.  For all of these reasons I believe we have a perfect storm here for two guys that are going to come out and wing it.    

Fight won’t go Distance +100

Cutelaba -210 vs. Cannonier +190

Cutelaba at 23 years of age is a scary opponent for he pressures opponents, is powerful, fights at a high pace and has proven to be able to take a belt to the beak.  That said he’s in there with a precision power puncher, a guy with experience, movement and most importantly reach.  This fight may come off oddly for Cannonier plays a switch stance while the Hulk is a southpaw.   We believe this could be a good spot for Cannonier as the mauling Moldavian Cutelaba presses forward into Cannonier's counterpunching.  Cutelaba is young and we see this one as a fight where he takes a step forward in the experience category while his opponent takes him to the classroom.

Cannonier +190

Benavidez -190 vs. Cejudo +170

As discussed with Gabriel Morency on MMAMeltdown this past week (on the Fight Network, @Fightnetwork) it’s our opinion that Joseph Benavidez is a more accomplished a mixed martial artist than is Henry Cejudo at this point in time.  Henry’s wresting must be the key for him getting his hand raised tonight and Benavidez, an accomplished wrestler in his own right understands exactly the plan Henry must undertake in order to have any advantage at all.  The premium pricing on the fight makes it unable for us to take a side because we feel Joe is just too much but Joe has been popped on the point before and if Henry can touch him who knows what may transpire?  Upon scouring the props we found an angle that (like the Elliott play tonight in the main event) is a small recreational position.   

Cejudo ITD +1050 (.25 unit)

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UFC FN101 Brunson vs. Whittaker: Middle's mettle in Melbourne - 11/26/2016

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 101 from Australia.  This card offers many fresh fighting faces we have little data on which mandates that today we watch more than wager in order to gain advantage down the line.  Here are a couple mangy mutts that ‘London to a brick’* will offer us their absolute best effort tonight.  We’re betting that our Bitzer’s* bite!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Tuck -135 vs. Brown +125

Brown, the Aussie is a grizzled fight vet having worked the regional Aussie circuit until recently being called up to the UFC.  He displayed tremendous grit and determination in his last victory and while he may have a slight edge over Tuck on the floor we feel the Aussie will be unable to fight the calculated fight preferring to trade leather with a man that is more athletic, larger, faster and skilled than Brown.  Provided Tuck controls the distance and keeps Brown raging inside to exchange this is a fine spot for Tuck.  Tuck opened -185….

Tuck -135 (half)

Camozzi -260 vs. Kelly +240

Camozzi is the younger, longer, taller striker here and deserves to be the chalk.  Kelly standing is no real match for Camozzi for he is not only 39 but fairly premeditated with his striking, slow and plodding.  He does have some power but Kelly’s craft is Judo.  Kelly will look to try to get his hands on the younger faster striker, grind on him, take him against the fence for a fleece on the floor in order to sap the younger man’s energy and convert this fight into a barroom brawl.  Kelly, who just returned from some time off because he was coaching the Aussie Judo team in the Olympics has been training and working with these young men for months and understands the position he is in tonight fighting in front of the home crazies.  We feel that Kelly’s in position to offer his best effort this evening and we feel his top effort is worthy of a half a ‘caterpillar’*.

Kelly +240 (half)

Volkanovski -170 vs Kasuya +160

We know little of the local here except to notice that he is giving away tremendous size to his opponent.  Further this is his UFC debut.  Fightmetric followers will also note that when he hit the scale he was one pound underweight.  Our resources have indicated that Volkanovski is really a 125’er and our scrutiny of him at weigh-ins reinforces that.  He’s a stand up striking machine and will want to come out and hit the Japanese fighter with Sunday shots but we question how much affect those shots will really have against his opponent if they do in fact connect.  Kasuya is not only the larger man; he also has the benefit of experiencing a tough UFC loss against a mighty fighter in Nick Hein so it is our opinion that Kasuya is going to be no easy task.  He’s sure to be focused and a bit desperate to get his hand raised and we handicap this fight with this in mind.  Kasuya will need to get his hands on the striker, take him to the floor and use his grappling to gain control of the fighter and eventually the fight and we feel he will be able to do that….Here’s a little prop on the pup.

Over 2.5 rounds +100 (half)

Brunson -135 vs. Whittaker +125

This is perhaps one of the best fights of the year.  These two men are both top ten fighters in their division and they arrive with plenty of momentum.  We discussed this fight earlier this week on our appearance with Gabriel Morency on MMAMeltdown which airs on Fightnetwork and we’ll share many of those same sentiments now. 

The Kiwi Whittaker fights out of Australia and is a young explosive striker with deadly power.  He advances with unrelenting pressure and is supremely confident.  He makes little beef about the fact that he is there to knock his opponent’s head off of his body.  The opponent Derek Brunson arrives to the Octagon tonight with plenty of momentum and swag of his own.  Brunson has faced a higher level of competition than has Robert.  Brunson will be the larger man in the Octagon with a substantial 4” reach advantage.  He’s a three time DII All American wrestler who’s as capable on the mat as he is standing and striking…plus he has power.  Brunson is also a southpaw which is worthy of mentioning for all of Whittaker’s recent wins have been against right handers and his last loss in April of 2014 was against a man taller, longer and a southpaw in Steven Thompson.  We believe Derek Brunson has more ways to win this fight specifically he’ll need to weather Whittaker’s early fury, eventually take this fight to the floor and wear, grind and maul the striker in order to have his way with him in the championship rounds. 

Brunson -135

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

*’London to a brick’ is Aussie slang for most certainly

*bitzer is Aussie slang for a mangy dog

* caterpillar is Aussie slang for a hundred dollar bill