Welcome fight Enthusiasts to our take on tonight’s UFC tablet. For new readers our path to profitability can be summarized by understanding the three fulcrums to success we employ in deriving deposits from UFC duels. We utilize Dynamic Due Diligence to detect and uncover value; we employ supreme Selectivity in refining our releases to a select few for our thrill is in winning as opposed to wagering….big difference there. Finally, we practice precise Money Management to track our bottom line each Monday after our work week for no profitable business may sustain itself without adherening to business principles. After all…it’s business!
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
Shevchenko -150 vs. Pena +140
Great fight featuring two dynamic fighters who are ascending the ladies bantamweight division quickly. Shevchenko, a soutpaw is a world class Taekwondo, Muay Thai and kickboxing talent who is skilled, precise and agile in the application of her strike attack. She has decent power but does most of her damage in accumulation. She is experienced, cagey, premeditated, focused and refined and has been in Denver training for this fight for over three weeks. Juliana Pena, the Venezuelan vixen on the other hand is going to be the larger woman in the Octagon and she’ll sell her soul to the devil in order to get this fight to the floor for a fracas. Pena will pressure to get inside to grasp Valentina then drag her down to the mat like a lion on the neck of a zebra. She’ll be relentless to maul her opponent on the mat for on the feet she is a bit wide and throws everything with finality as its purpose which will play directly into the hands of Shevchenko so that approach is off. Shevchenko must utilize her outstanding footwork to remain in enough space to loop laser lefts to the lips of Juliana. We attribute the “Styles make fights” adage to Angelo Dundee and never has this quote been so applicable to a fight. We released this fight Wednesday Shevchenko -120 as she opened -170 so we own market advantage, now we get to watch these talented fighters compete.
(GambLou clients receive all early positions and often the market advantage)
Assuncao -140 vs. Sterling +130
We discussed this fight in detail this week with Gabriel Morency on his show MMAMeltdown which airs on the FightNetwork. Assuncao, a southpaw is a complete well-rounded mixed martial artist. He’s vastly experienced, has power on the feet and is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. At 34 years of age however we feel that Assuncao’s best days may be behind him. His last fight came after an almost two year absence from the game to heal various injuries. While that fight was against an absolute beast in TJ Dillashaw, we felt Rafael labored and looked sluggish against TJ. While we may expect a more fluid effort from him tonight the fact remains that he is in the Octagon with a man in Sterling that will be the taller, younger, longer and faster more skilled fighter. He enters this fight off a loss in his last outing which equates to a more refined effort for any fighter let alone a fighter with Sterling’s skillset, competitiveness and team. Sterling made the trip to Denver three weeks early (it takes a full 3 weeks to acclimate one’s body to the change of altitude) to acclimate which tells us that he is prepared to make amends for the Carraway loss and offer us his absolute best effort tonight. One may equate this to a Bull Fight with Assuncao trying to get inside to get his hands on Sterling and Sterling floating like a butterfly and trying to sting like a bee. It will take a full three rounds of skill, precision and movement from Sterling to win tonight for while he sports advantage in most aspects of this fight he does lack punching power. If Aljamain is to get his hand raised tonight he’ll have to beat the fire hydrant with movement, skill, speed and an accumulation of strikes.
Jingliang -110 vs. Nash -110
This fight opened up Jingliang -170 and the love for his opponent has dropped that price like a hammer in a lake. He wages battle with UFC newcomer Bobby Nash. Nash has a wresting base, is athletic and does look the part but has a meager 2.5 years as a professional* compared to a guy in Jingliang who is coming up on a decade in the cage. Jingliang’s size, the pressure he’ll impose and the fact that he is the more complete fighter make him attractive at the current pricing.
Cerrone -150 vs. Masvidal +140
The way to beat Cowboy Cerrone is to box him, bully him and force the fight into his face. Jorge Masvidal is a guy that says he is going to execute this exact plan yet his body of work displays the opposite. Masvidal a guy that is surely ultra-talented and at the same time he fights (most) often without any sense of urgency. Masvidal is one difficult cat to figure for as we handicap this fight it’s all about what action Masvidal takes because we know what Cerrone will want to do. Cerrone will want to control distance, use his vast striking attack to control the fight and move. Masvidal, in our opinion must do what Marvin Haggler did to Tommy Hearns in 1985 and that is aggressively gain control of the pocket, press and pitch power punches in order to make Cerrone move backwards, feel uncomfortable and have to fight Jorge’s fight. Jorge must smother the Cowboy and make this a street fight as this form of fight will provide Jorge physical control of the fight and more importantly emotional control over Cerrone who in his past has had a difficult time managing this form of pressure. This will all come down to whether Jorge comes to fight or frolic. Monitoring this one as I am torn as to whether I can trust Jorge...
Ngannou -360 vs. Arlovski +320
Ngannou is a fighter who is being carefully placed as he works his way toward the top of an ultra-thin talent pool in the Heavyweight division. We actually respect the path his camp is taking with him and understand why they think Arlovski is the perfect match for him tonight as they are aware that Arlovski’s switch goes off to a sneeze. If Ngannou touches the bad ass from Belarus he’ll likely put him out. That said, this fight is a decent step up for Ngannou and we have not seen any of the tomato’s he’s fought (Blaydes is no can but is a wrestler who wasn’t there to exchange) be able to throw AND LAND a heavyweight punch to Ngannou’s nose. We’ve seen through history many chiseled fighters who look menacing and have been fed diets of diva’s only to finally achieve a level of opponent where they are going to be tested then fail miserably because they can’t take a belt to the beard. Ngannou is raw and he’s in against a guy that will own tremendous experience over him inside the Octagon so excuse us if we make Ngannou show us something before we kneel down and proclaim him the next great Heavyweight.
Free Release: Arlovski ITD +440 (.25u)
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