UFC 231 Holloway vs.Ortega: Neckcrank in Scotiabank - 12/8/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 231. This slate is stacked with talent and dynamic match-ups. Over the last several weeks I have been trying to remain selective in anticipation of this card and the upcoming UFC 232. I believe there are a few mangy mutts carousing this card. Let’s find them and convert their efforts into profit.

This Holloway vs. Ortega fight was originally scheduled for July so this week in ‘Point Spread Weekly’ I go back to the article published then and add to it based on my thoughts from this past Tuesday Dec. 4th which was the deadline for my position.

As usual I will have updates to this main event and other releases immediately following.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

--originally published 12-5-18—

After numerous obscure Fight Night events over the course of the last several weeks the UFC serves us filet mignon this week with a deeply talented UFC 231 slate from Toronto Canada. There are numerous fights on this card that feature well matched competition and interesting clashes of fighting styles.

Due diligence and selectivity are mandatory practices for profitable underdog bettors in the UFC as to date in 2018 Favorites are 268-125-15 (65.7%).

Let’s begin start Saturday’s main event which was originally scheduled for UFC 226 this past July. I’ll post my column submitted (and published) on Point Spread Weekly prior to that fight (but before it had been pulled) providing a glimpse of my thoughts at that time. After that column I’ll add comments which address the relatively important dynamics that have surfaced since that fight was cancelled and which I believe factor greatly in this outcome.  

Max Holloway -130 (Champion) vs. Brian Ortega +110 Featherweight Championship (145lbs.)

This fight features two abundantly talented, state of the art mixed martial artists each with their own dynamic expertise and approach to excellence.

In Brian Ortega we have a BJJ savant spoon fed by Rener Gracie. While Ortega is master class in BJJ he has also greatly improved his striking making him a relatively complete MMA fighter other than Ortega has shown limited ability to effectively wrestle.

Ortega has benefited by a substantial size advantage in recent fights as he’s been the larger, taller, longer man in the Octagon (save for his fight against Moicano) but this will not be the case Saturday as Holloway is the slightly taller combatant with relatively equal reach.

Ortega has been able to focus completely on his stand up in recent fights while offering little if any deterrent against the takedown as he is confident that any fighter foolish enough to take him to the floor will be submitted. This allows Ortega the freedom to strike with no fear of the floor.

Ortega’s striking while improved is still unrefined and is in no way on par with his opponent Saturday night. Ortega’s striking is power based and in the heat of battle he can be wide and at times wild while fighting upright.  Besides improving as a striker Ortega is also evolving in the area he needs most to improve upon, strike defense. How Ortega chooses to attack Holloway will be the intrigue of this fight for I see little chance of Ortega winning a stand-up battle.

Twenty-six-year-old Max Holloway will enter his fourth title defense a confident fighter who since his decision loss to Conor McGregor in 2013 has won twelve straight UFC fights (nine of those via the finish). Holloway will be the taller, faster fighter who will utilize a diverse and precision based Muay Thai/boxing striking arsenal to take this fight to the challenger. Holloway must utilize and maintain space to control Ortega and keep him at the end of his lethal strikes and kicks. Holloway’s effective striking will be utilized to force Ortega into pressing the fight to Holloway thus allowing Ortega to become predictable and open to Holloway’s precision striking attack while Ortega works to get inside.

I do not see Ortega being able to compete effectively against the striking and movement of Holloway as he did against the forward stalking, wild, swinging Moicano who in their fight one year ago took the fight directly to Ortega before getting caught in a guillotine in the third round. At the half way point of round two of that fight Moicano had landed forty-seven (47) head strikes on Ortega. This not only demonstrates that Ortega can take a shot but it also is evidence that his defense against a striker is suspect and Moicano is in no way as precision based or refined a striker as Holloway.

Holloway’s precision striking, awkward movement and counter attack coupled with his eighty-three percent (83%) take down defense will force Ortega to become predictable. Ortega will eventually need to gain his way inside to drag Holloway down or force him against the fence if he is to have any chance of getting his hand raised. When this happens Ortega plays right into the strength of the fluid moving lethal striking Max Holloway.

Holloway opened -180 in this fight and it’s my opinion that Ortega’s recent knock-out of Frankie Edgar (which the fighting public has fresh in their minds) is fueling favor to Ortega. This in turn is creating value for the Champion who in my judgement is poised to defend his title Saturday night in impressive fashion.

Holloway -130

--Update 11-5-18--

Fight pro’s that follow the UFC comprehensively were aware that just prior to that first fight in July, Holloway was displaying a unique lack of response to questions, an overall sluggishness and slurring leading up to the fight. The last minute cancellation was due to the fact that during fight week Holloway was forced into making a couple hospital visits for what was described as acute concussion-like symptoms*.

The result of the cancellation had Holloway and camp delving into what really had happened as they strived to get Max back to health. The information available from his interviews since July are a mix between the unknown, concussion symptoms and even the addressing of depression and mental health**.

So today as I assess this fight, I must say everything has changed except the lines on the scrap. Let’s begin with pricing. As you read above Holloway opened -180 in the first fight and at the time of cancellation was he -130. When this fight re-opened the price came as it had closed in July, Holloway -130 to Ortega +110 and it sits close to that number now.

While the betting line on the fight has remained mostly unaltered from their first scheduled fight in July it is my judgement that the total dynamic of the fight has been altered.

Athletes are at their essence and in their prime very insecure. Insecure because they realize their time is limited and they strive to take advantage of each and every opportunity to remain as relevant as possible both for their ego and for their business. Add to this that the UFC ‘had’ and ‘has’ another fighter on hand and primed to step in to fight Ortega in the case Holloway was unable to return to defend the Featherweight title or in the case that Holloway can’t make it to the Octagon Saturday. So to say Holloway is experiencing pressure from the UFC to defend and his own self-administered pressure to fight Ortega is not overstated.

Is Holloway rushing back? He could be feeling pressure to retain HIS title by defending it and he sure does not want to allow others the spotlight that he himself has worked so tirelessly to attain. But is he 110% healthy?

We’ll all know soon enough if Max is really ready to fire Saturday but as far as betting this fight is concerned I’ll allow the recent news to completely change my direction in this fight as I was vehemently for Holloway last July but now I am concerned.

Holloway still seems a bit off from my deep research for this title fight. His speech still seems a bit slippery and his manner deliberate. He’ll need to prove to me that the events of the last six months have had no effect on him as I can’t simply believe that four or five months can completely cure someone from issues so critical to a fighter as their ‘mental health’ and potential physiological effects of depression.

I do not believe that the Max Holloway of July is the same man and fighter as he is today. The forms of struggles he’s experienced can be complex and in the fight game mental and physical health is of major importance especially when we begin to address not only concussion-like symptoms but now we bring in depression. I know so little of each so I’ll hold off on commenting but this I will say:

Max Holloway’s absolute best performance will be required Saturday to defeat Brian Ortega and I’m not completely sure we’re getting Holloway at 100%.

Pass

I’ll have a complete UFC 231 slate breakdown at GambLou.com after Friday’s weigh-in results have taken place. Enjoy the fights.

* “Max Holloway breaks silence on UFC 226 withdrawal” By: Mike Bohn|July 6, 2018 2:40 pm MMA Junkie.com. Link: https://mmajunkie.com/2018/07/max-holloway-breaks-silence-on-ufc-226-withdrawal-addresses-ortega-mcgregor-khabib

** “Morning Report: Max Holloway opens up about battling depression after UFC 226” By Jed Meshew @JedKMeshew  Oct 11, 2018, 8:00am EDT Link: https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/10/11/17959694/morning-report-max-holloway-opens-up-about-battling-depression-after-ufc-226.

--Updated 12-8-18 11am EST--

Yesterday after closely scrutinizing both sets of weigh-ins and also enlisting the help of my MMA mentor and dear friend John Crouch who is the Coach and owner of the MMALab here in Phoenix I released:

Holloway +105

Crouch indicted that in his opinion the camp and inner circle of Holloway handlers would be very wary of Max’s condition and in his thoughts he felt they would not allow him to compromise himself. This may seem common sense and I still poked at Crouch regarding perhaps organizational pressure influencing Max to hide any issues etc. from camp which Crouch acknowledged as a possible yet very difficult to actually pull off (these couches are like family to their fighters especially at the MMALab). Anyway I hope this helps you understand my back and forth regarding my final position on this fight.

Aubin-Mercier -135 vs. Burns +115

In a fight pitting two outstanding grapplers often times we’ll see that the fight takes place on the feet. While both of these men have rapidly gained striking acumen it is Aubin-Mercier who I will give a slight edge to in the stand-up only because Burn’s beak has in the past show itself to be weak. So Burns will want to get this fight to the mat where he will have clear advantage over AB who on the floor is quite capable but nowhere near the level of BJJ artist that Burns is. AB will strive to keep this fight standing in my estimation and will try to touch the Brazilian on the teeth and control the fight from striking distance. I believe Burns is the more athletic, explosive fighter who will be able to manage this fight while upright until he can forge his way inside to get a grasp of AB and drag him down where Burns will manage to make this a maul on the matt eventually and earn this victory most likely via decision.

Burns +115

Theodorou -135 vs. Anders +115

Theodorou is a well-rounded fighter who has several peripheral business opportunities working as he solidifies himself as a legitimate top fifteen fighter in the UFC’s Middleweight division. I find it amazing that this young man can manage movie parts, writing, doing commercials and training for top level UFC opponents. I wonder if his attentions are 110% focused on fighting although I completely respect and commend the young man for preparing for life after fighting (something very few fighters or athlete’s for that matter are able to undertake during their athletic careers). Theodorou is large for the weight class and while he has more experience in the cage than does Anders, it will be Anders that is the more explosive, athletic and powerful fighter. I feel this fight is guile against grit and in my estimation it should be lined as it was at opening (Anders -125) so we’ll take the line value on the former linebacker.

Anders +115

Dawado -195 vs. Bochniak +175

Dawado is an explosive local fighter who’ll have the crowd, athletic ability and a five-year youth advantage over the more deliberate well-rounded grinder in Bochniak. If Bochniak can navigate the first five minutes without taking too much damage from this explosive powerful Canadian and steer this fight into the final seven minutes, then I believe his unrelenting forward pressuring style and toughness may begin to ebb the explosion from Dawado. Bochniak gained mucho confidence after his performance last out on short notice against Magomedshapirov and he caught my eye in doing so. Flyer

Bochniak +175

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN142 Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa: Kaurna KO - 12/1/2018

Tonight’s UFC Fight Night event from Adelaide, Australia has some outstanding match-ups on the card. Below you’ll find my write up on its main event, Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa as it was originally published Wednesday of this past week on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ newsletter and immediately following I’ll offer a couple of fighters I feel offer gaming value.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight the Octagon UFC 230 (originally published 11-27-18)

The UFC closes November with Friday night’s TUF finale main event and welcomes the first of four fight cards in December with a Fight Night slate from Adelaide, Australia on Saturday. I’ll cover each main event in this weeks ‘Insight the Octagon’.

UFC Fight Night 142

Junior Dos Santos -150 vs. Tai Tuivasa +130 Heavyweight Main Event

It was just a few months ago in this column when I faded Junior (JDS) against a regionally talented fighter in Boise to poor results. In that fight and much to my astonishment JDS displayed tremendous fight IQ in choosing to employ a plan of movement and precision punching as opposed to standing toe to toe and trying to take his opponent out which is what I had expected.

This is important because at thirty four years old JDS has been through numerous physically/mentally oppressive fights and his ability to take shots is waning so enduring punishment from other heavyweight fighters is a risk JDS must not expose himself to.  He’s remained a relevant Heavyweight talent throughout twelve years of professional heavyweight battles. Age and fighting post USADA (mandatory testing agency for the UFC) are both obstacles JDS has had to navigate in order to get to this new and rejuvenated state. My question is can one take the stripes off of a Zebra?

Saturday JDS must display the diligence and self-control to execute the exact plan he did in his last fight if he is to have any chance at getting his hand raised. He’s been set up with a similar fighter to his last opponent though this one is certainly a step up in competition, power and durability. I expect this opponent to truly test whether JDS can stick to his fight plan or whether in the heat of heavyweight battle the sweat rinses the paint off JDS thus exposing the zebra’s stripes…..for instilled deep inside JDS psyche is a fighter who has always exchanges flat footed power punches with opponents.

The question that will get answered in Adelaide Saturday night this: Will JDS be able to follow his training and utilize movement/IQ to dictate the pace of this fight or will he stray from the plan when he gets clocked on the kisser and revert to trading power punches, a response his chin will no longer allow him to execute?

JDS travels to Australia Saturday to fight local fighter Tai Tuivasa who is a stocky ex-rugby player (Mother an indigenous Australian and his father Samoan) that if he were two inches taller would be perfectly square. Tuivasa is nine years the younger man, must cut weight to reach the 265lb. heavyweight limit and has profuse punching power. He is awarded this opportunity because he is the prodigy of local fight legend Mark Hunt (who will fight earlier on this card in what is possibly his final fight in the UFC) as well the UFC needs a few new faces in this part of the world as they try to export the brand so Tai gets this try.

As a mixed martial artist Tuivasa is lacking credibility of skill. He sports very little MMA acumen, in fact he is a telegraphing, slow, plodding, Sunday punch tossing, brawler who has a granite chin and absolutely no defense.  Tuivasa’s fought a very dubious level of competition and has only gone past the first round once and that was in his last fight against another old, tired warrior in Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski, it must be pointed out also has a very suspect chin and the Aussie was unable to finish him.

So in summary, the drama in this main event is whether JDS can stick to a plan of constant movement, precision striking and kicks from the outside to eventually wear the stalking Samoan down and try to take him out via attrition in the later rounds or simply win via decision…..or

Will the young, green, Aussie power puncher have success stalking JDS down and forcing him to brawl?

I’ll side with youthful power here tossing in front of the home Countrymen as I do not believe Dos Santos will be able to keep those stripes hidden and avoid exchanging with Tuivasa.

Tuivasa +130

(now +140)

--updated 12-1-18 11:30am EST--

Justin Willis -120 vs. Mark Hunt +110

Justin Willis is thirteen years the younger fighter, he’s five inches taller than the square Samoan slugger and he’ll own a six-inch reach advantage over Mark Hunt in what I handicap to be a striking affair. Those are numeric advantages we must acknowledge to Willis’ favor in this spot. Now Willis’ level of competition is dubious claiming only a decision win over Chase Sherman as his best victory while Hunt’s been in with and beaten many of the past decade’s best heavyweight fighters.  

Willis has arrived in Australia as the villain surely as he has decided to goad and chide Mark Hunt even coming into confrontation with him at yesterday’s weigh-ins. The young brash American arriving onto the local hero’s turf and poking, chiding and deriding him is a questionable tactic in my judgment unless you want to receive the absolute most astringent response from Hunt. That’s exactly what I do expect here.

This fight is going to come down to will for Willis is huge, hulking, explosive strong and sports a sturdy chin while the same can be said for Hunt though I will give Willis an explosion/quickness edge in the first round or so.

I see this fight going into the second round, Willis beginning to get a bit slower and telegraphing his shots to which Hunt will find his way inside of the pocket and then deliver a ‘bustin to Justin.

Hunt +110

Martin -115 vs. Matthews +105

Here’ another fight where Martin an American fighter has arrived ‘Down Under’ flapping and smacking at his local opponent. Now Martin has looked super since moving up to 170 from 115 but he’s done so against a couple of fighters I hold in less than top 15 regard. Martin’s show a great ability to evolve and compliment his stand up with some ground ability but make no mistake about the fact that Martin will not and must not allow this fight to hit the mat.

Matthews has also been recipient of the benefits of moving up in weight class to 170. He’s stronger, faster and quicker at the new weight as is Martin. Matthews will be giving away some size in this spot but he’s fighting at home and as I handicap this fight I make Matthews the -130 chalk or so therefore I feel there is value on Matthews who I believe will find his way inside on Martin and eventually be able to get this fight to the mat where he will hold superiority.

Matthews  +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC TUF: Dos Anjos vs. Usman: Cruisin for a Br'Usman - 11/30/2018

I’ll attack tonight’s TUF Finale educationally as I will be looking at this card more for future information and data than profit opportunity tonight. As is customary, I’ll include my main event breakdown originally published in VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ this past Wednesday for your perusal and any comments and releases after the main event diagnosis.

Saturday the UFC will hold another fight card, Fight NIght 142 from Adelaide Australia. I’ll have a full write up for that card tomorrow as there are a couple mangy mutts I have my eye upon.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight the Octagon TUF Finale (originally published 11-28-18)

The UFC closes November with Friday night’s TUF finale main event and welcomes the first of four fight cards in December with a Fight Night slate from Adelaide, Australia on Saturday. I’ll cover each main event in this weeks ‘Insight the Octagon’.

TUF Finale: Raphael Dos Anjos +220 vs. Kamaru Usman -250 Welterweight (170lb.) Main Event

Interesting the Welterweight rankings in the UFC post Raphael Dos Anjos (RDA) third and opponent Kamaru Usman fifth yet Usman comes the substantial favorite in this fight. ‘Rankings’ being inconsistent with the bookmaker’s analysis of any particular sporting event is an ironic yet some common situation. Just ask any college football fan.

RDA arrives the fighter with a deep advantage in experience and level of competition; RDA is regarded as the better-rounded fighter, dominant in both BJJ and Muay Thai (BJJ being a grappling/ground expertise and Muay Thai, a stand-up striking/clinching form of fighting, simply put). Usman has been fighting professionally for just over five years so while he does give away Octagon experience to RDA he’s endured abundantly LESS physical /mental fight attrition while RDA’s undergone numerous taxing and brutal five round fights over his fourteen year professional career. 

RDA’s beaten some of the finest fighters of his time and for a period did hold the Lightweight (155lb.) title before moving up to Welterweight which is a perfect Segway into one of the reasons Usman is the favorite Friday.

While a highly trained and skilled fighter, RDA is undersized especially when we discuss championship caliber fighters in the UFC’s Welterweight division. Fight fans saw RDA struggle with a larger wrestler in his last fight, a decision loss to Colby Covington for the Welterweight Championship this past June. While Covington is a smothering wrestling based fighter his fight skills are not in the same ‘class’ as Usman nor is he Usman’s size.

In Friday’s bout, Usman will hold advantages in height (four inches), arm reach (six inches) and leg reach (three inches) which together enhance (analytically) his chances of winning especially should this fight remain a striking affair. Usman’s physical attributes coupled with his dominant wrestling provide him overwhelming advantage in any fight against any opponent at 170lbs..

It’s been stated here numerous times that kryptonite to the World Class BJJ artist is a World Class Wrestling based fighter. Usman was a D2 Championship wrestler from my home state of Nebraska and like most wrestling based fighters he sports unending cardio, he displays unrelenting forward pressure and he compliments his size with superior strength.

Usman has had to evolve into becoming a capable striker for it is only when the world class wrestling based fighter becomes fluid at effectively landing strikes, evading punches and showing the ability to TAKE punches that said fighter transcends into an effective, dangerous MMA artist. I’ve just described Kamaru Usman.

All fights begin on the feet so Usman will take advantage of his size/length while this fight is upright but it is only a matter of time before the smothering, forward pressuring Usman clasps onto RDA. From there he’ll work to usurp the strength and will from RDA while mashing the smaller man against the fence before eventually dragging the Brazilian to the floor for a flogging.

RDA is a most experienced and skilled BJJ artist and one that few fighters would ever chose to grapple with but the set of skills Usman brings to the cage makes him the more dangerous fighter no matter where this fight takes place.

Friday night’s TUF main event will be a poor situation for RDA against a man in Usman that is a larger, longer, younger, fresher, hungrier fighter.

Usman should be a firm -250 favorite in this fight and I would not be surprised if this line ascends more by fight time.

Usman -250

(I recommend a rare one unit wager on Usman as the first part of a two team parlay. I’ll leave the second portion open and fill it with an upcoming side on an upcoming Point Spread Weekly).

Carraway vs. Munhoz

I feel Munhoz is a fade but maybe there’s something I got against the kid. I really wanted to take Carraway here for I believe he is desperate to remain relevant in the uFC but I have resources I trust that tell me I am washed up on any chance Callaway can clobber the Brazilian. I always do my own thinking but I have enough reservation to pass.

Shahbazyan -115 vs. Stewart +105

Shahbazyan has some flash but he’s only twenty-one, makinghis Octagon debut and lacking big time experience. I feel Darren stewart is a legitimate top 25 guy in the middleweigh division.

Stewart +105

GambLou.com

ProfitableSportsGaming


UFC FN 141 Blaydes vs. Ngannou: Omoplata from the Orient - 11/23/2018

UFC FN 141 from Beijing China goes off in the wee hours this Saturday morning. While I find the card relatively interesting I must admit that I will not view the prelims live choosing instead to study those early match-ups at a later date.The main event does feature a fine rematch in the Heavyweight division as well the Co-main features Heavy’s also. I did not provide a detailed write up for this main event this week so I’ll include a few ideas as to why I prefer each listed fighter below.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Blaydes -220 vs. Ngannou +200

In the first fight Blaydes was supposed to wrestle the giant effectively. Instead what happened is Blaydes took an eye socket beating which caused the fight to be stopped by the doctors.

In this fight it’s my judgement that Blaydes arrives with the deeper cardio and certain advantage if/when this fight hits the floor. Blaydes will want to usurp the energy from the powerful giant, take him deep into the fight to tire him out then maul the monster on the mat.

Ngannou meanwhile has had to realize that one must offer more in an MMA match that fearsome, premeditated, plodding power. I am certain also that Ngannou is aware of his Octagon short comings, and has addressed them in preparation to get back into Heavyweight relevance. Ngannou is out to show fight fans that the first fight between he and Blaydes is going to have a similar result as the first. I do expect Ngannou’s best effort tonight but also believe that Blaydes has championship pedigree and abilities.

In their first fight Blaydes opened -140 and closed -190 so in my humble opinion this fight is lined appropriately and accurately. Where I find a bit of value is on the props.

Fight starts Round 3 -110

Pavlovich -130 vs. Overeem +115

Pavlovich will have to prove to me he is better than a local journeyman. While Overeem’s chin is as fragile as my grandmother’s porcelain nativity set, he does have vast advantages in size, athleticism, striking ability, ground game and most importantly experience. Overeem’s been training in Colorado with Blaydes for this camp so I feel confident when I say that Overeem is going to take this man to the mat and mop the floor with him which will not allow the Russian slugger to find any punching room while he’s being elbowed and hammer sited while on his back. I released this yesterday via @twitter and price is now a nickel more.

Overeem +115

Song -120 vs. Morono +110

Song gets a real opponent as opposed to a local tomato can so he’ll need to actually earn a victory here. He has the skills to win but he’ll need to prove to me he can fight an individual that is UFC experienced, tough, determined and aggressive. Morono will bring this fight to the local.

Morono +110 (half)

Yaozong -120 vs. Coulter +110

Yaozong has size and youth but after that he is but a regional talent who is lacking real MMA experience. He was a short notice stand in for the last card here in China and he got beat by journeyman in Cyril Asker. Yaozong is game but green.

Coulter has been overmatched and undersized in his Heavyweight fights and though he missed weight in this Light-heavyweight tussle by three pounds he has a vast experience edge, he’s more athletic than Yaozong and has abundant, explosive power. Coulter’s cardio has been in question in past fights but fighting 265’ers for an undersized man is no easy task as well now fighting at some 225 lbs. (by fight time) may well allow him to fight effectively for a full fifteen. Coulter opened -175 to Yaozong +155 and that line has reversed. Those folks are chasing the wrong fighter….

Coulter -110 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Thanksgiving advice: "Plan your work then work your plan" - 11/20/2018

Thanksgiving Gaming advice: Over indulge but do not over bet!

The Holiday’s kick-off with Thanksgiving week in which there are some 80+ football games (college and pro) besides college/pro baskets and of course the NHL in which to wager upon .

Sure it’s Thanksgiving and while we Americans pride ourselves at overindulgence I would offer a note of advice for the beginning and advanced #ProfitableSportsGaming enthusiast and it is simply this….

“Plan your work then work your plan”. Don’t go into these final weeks of football season with the plethora of potential games to wager upon without a specific plan for success.

In the next week though there will be over 80 games to choose from I will release a total of five or six total bets in the NFL and perhaps one or two in Saturday’s UFC.

After comprehensive Due Diligence has been completed, I then recommend utilizing the second fulcrum to profit in sports betting, Selectivity.

Selectivity is critical to the bottom line provided one has undertaken comprehensive Due Diligence. Lastly and in order to accumulate profit from those select few wagers, it is mandatory to record results, tabulate profitability and run your gaming as a business if profit is your desired result.

If you are a bettor that just likes to fire and wants the high of placing the wager as opposed to winning it then you will find my webpage quite useless. However, if a plan for success and graduated, steady, matriculated profitability is your goal then by all means undertake GambLou.com as one of your your resources to #ProfitableSportsGaming

So in summary my message is clear, plan your work, perform the due diligence required to be knowledgeable, gain advantage by both acquiring value over the marketplace and remaining selective in your wagers, then tabulate profit to the penny….and by all means listen to Al Davis when he famously quipped, “Just win Baby”.

Happy Thanksgiving to all

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC FN140 Ponzinibbio vs. Magny - 11/17/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires, Brazil. Tonight’s card will do wonders for the expansion efforts of the UFC into Argentina while at the same time signifies one of the final cards under the current Fox contract. As is the case since the beginning of the year, below is my VSiN ‘Point Spread Weekly’ breakdown of the main event followed by updated comments and any releases immediately following.

One more note: as you are aware the main event portion of my blogs are published each Wednesday on VSiN’s weekly publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’. This subscription based weekly newsletter is packed full of gaming intel and covers all of the betting sports for that week.

I have been authorized to offer my readers a special offer of all remaining “Point Spread Weekly’ publications from now until the end of the Super Bowl. Their current offer is a $99 mid-season special which gives you all access to Point Spread Weekly and video through the Super Bowl). Anyone using the Promo code ‘Lou’ will be able to get all access for just $79. It’s the wisest $79.00 smackers you’ll ever spend…. believe me. If you have interest use this promo code:   https://www.vsin.com/promo

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

--Originally published 11-14-18 Point Spread Weekly—

This week’s UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires is Argentina’s first ever UFC production as native and number ten ranked Welterweight Santiago Ponzinibbio will host eighth ranked American Neil Magny in an important fight in the UFC’s Welterweight division.

As is customary with these overseas UFC slate’s the match-ups often feature lesser known local and regional talent so many fights outside the main event may only appeal to hard core UFC fans and handicappers such as myself.

Santiago Ponzinibbio -320 vs. Neil Magny +280 Welterweight (170lbs) Main Event

Santiago Ponzinibbio, is a kickboxing, BJJ based fighter who is athletic, explosive and constantly forward pressuring. He has power in both hands and has been victorious inside the Octagon against both strikers and submission specialists alike even though he may not be the most decorated of fighters when it comes to titles and awards. Ponzi is undefeated in his last six fights dating to 2015 and has finished three of those opponents inside the distance.

Neil Magny is also a fighter undecorated as far as accolades/designations may be concerned and ships in from Colorado to face Ponzi in his own back yard. While Magny is a brown belt in BJJ and has unusual size/length for the division, what’s important is that he’ll possess a three-inch reach advantage over the six foot Ponzi as well have an obtuse seven-inch reach advantage. Magny’s experience and deeper level of competition have prepared him well for this opportunity to enhance his ranking within the division with a win against Ponzi in Buenos Aires.

In the event this is a striking affair (and that is exactly what I expect) Magny’s length, movement and cardio will make him quite a challenge for Ponzi, a fighter who is going to have to find a way to negate Magny’s space, press him against the cage and attack the long lean Magny with unrelenting body work and bombs to the beak.

Magny of course must utilize his length, his kicking game and especially movement to keep Ponzi outside and at range of his strikes in order to inflict constant peppering damage and slowly usurp the quickness from the aggressive incoming mauler.

Thus we have the ‘cat and mouse’ that will be this main event.

Ponzinibbio will be trying diligently to impress the family, friends and countrymen of his homeland while Magny will be looking to do to Ponzi what Ponzi did to Gunnar Nelson in June of last year when he traveled into Glasgow and knocked the local favorite Nelson cold.

The one key to this five round fight in my judgement is this; how will Magny navigate the first round or two while Ponzi is fresh and firing forward? Then as the fight hits the middle rounds (if it does) the question now becomes, how will Ponzi cope with the endless movement, conditioning and striking Magny will be certain to employ?

I handicap Ponzi as a -200 to -220 favorite in this fight even in Argentina so current pricing is nearing the strike price of Magny +300 or better.  I’ll wait and monitor weigh-ins and late line movement in this fight and try to capture Magny at a price of +300 or better.

I’ll provide all updates after Friday’s weigh-ins and a full write up for this fight and any other releases Saturday morning at GambLou.com.

Updated 11-17-18 10am EST

Well fight fans as we notice the line on the main event is now exactly as I had stated is should be earlier this week as currently Ponzinibbio -215 is the market price. I find no current value on this main event nor any other match-ups on this card. I consider this slate to be lacking in any real meaningful matchups as well thin on overall talent in fact I find the production weak and poorly constructed which is not a compliment to the UFC as it exits is Fox contract by tossing fighters together simply to fill slots as opposed to present meaningful fights to its clientele.

While the ‘Makers must always line fights, we as bettors get the opportunity (control) to decide whether the wagering is value laden or not. In this case, I’ll pass on this whole card other than the release made yesterday on @Twitter of Botelho -150.

Remember, we’re not in it for the action, we’re in it for the profit. It’s business.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 230 Cormier vs. Lewis: Grapple in the Apple - 11/3/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 230 from New York City! Until very recently MMA was banned in New York state so for the organization to be able to export its brand in such a populated and fan feverous area is outstanding. While I’m surely known for diagnosing dogs in my delivery of the bottom line it must also be noted that I always strive to be refined and selective in my releases.

To date in the UFC Favorites stand 238-110-14 (65.7%) which explains why I practice discipline when wagering mangy mutts across all the sports I work but most especially the UFC understanding this data.

Today I have three capable canines, all of which will be found below after my main event breakdown that appeared on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ publication this past Wednesday. A worthy investment for any looking to sharpen and refine their Profitable Sports Gaming skills with opinions from all forms of handicapping means and styles.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight the Octagon UFC 230 (originally published 10-31-18)

Champion Daniel Cormier -700 vs. Derrick Lewis +500 Heavyweight Title fight (265lbs.)

There’s a dynamic difference in fighter expertise in this Heavyweight title fight which explains the steep favorite’s price found on Cormier.

Thirty-three-year-old Derrick Lewis is a bona-fide heavyweight fighter that actually drops weight in order to make the 265lb. limit for the weight class. He sports a 21-5-1 record in professional fights, is 12-3 in his eight year UFC career and has had his hand raised in nine of his last ten UFC match-ups.

Lewis makes no bones about the fact that he is a brawler whose basic fight experience was earned in the streets of New Orleans. Lewis does not possess any fancy designations from any martial arts specialties nor is his physique typical of a world class fighter (rather a world class eater). It is a bit of a paradox that a massive man with little to no fight diversity can survive; even earn victories in the UFC without specialized training and expertise. Lewis is one exception and he’s not only survived, he’s thrived.

What makes Lewis potent in the Octagon simply put is his profuse power. He owns the most KO’s in the history of the UFC heavyweight division as well has the second highest significant strike count from the floor in UFC history as well.

Lewis has a right hand that once delivered can turn the lights out on a city block, he’s unusually athletic and explosive for a man his size. He sports formidable take down defense, a most dangerous ground and pound game and innate toughness to go with a granite chin.

Lewis in this and every fight he enters will look to walk the opponent down and engage is a storm of strikes but he has limited time to effectively deliver punishment to opponents for his cardio is questionable and he’s been susceptible to damaging body attacks from opponents. Lewis also has had a long history with back issues which can make things arduous when fighting all out in a cage against heavyweight fighters trained to take one’s consciousness from them.

Champion Daniel Cormier is almost a complete opposite of Lewis as a fighter for Cormier is an accomplished D1/Olympic freestyle wrestler, a brown belt in BJJ and highly versed in kickboxing. In every aspect of mixed martial arts Daniel Cormier is more versed than is Lewis and though Cormier’s physique can also be a bit misleading, he is strong as a country mule, extremely athletic and is trained for twenty-five minutes of warfare. Cormier as a Light-heavyweight was large and powerful but as a Heavyweight he is strong, quick and agile.

Cormier’s biggest advantages in fights are his athleticism and high intelligence. He’ll need to apply these and all of his skills Saturday as Lewis will have dynamic physical advantages over DC (four inches of height, a seven- inch reach advantage and a two-inch reach advantage with his legs). DC must address Lewis with caution especially early in this fight as he is keenly aware that Lewis can end it at any time with one ‘Sunday shot’.

This fight should be competitive early for Cormier will have to work on ‘the black beast’ in order to tire him and drain him of his will to continue. He’ll do this by working his way inside of Lewis, pressing him up to and against the fence to maul. He’ll also look to soften up that big jelly belly with kicks when at distance and press Lewis to exert energy in every second of the fight. While Cormier has power and finishing ability, ‘the Beast’ is a huge man and has a strong will so Cormier’s path to victory will be the same as that of a matador in a bull fight. He must work to force ‘the beast’ into exerting precious energy in order to drain it of its will, and then finish the task.

Cormier will respect Lewis’ athleticism, explosion and power for he knows Lewis can put him out with a clean connection. DC, by forcing Lewis to exert energy at every turn of the fight can begin to effectively eliminate his distance and ability to put power behind his telegraphed shots. An intelligent cautious long term fight plan will in time usurp the beast of his cardio. As that happens this fight will become one sided and Lewis more desperate for the finish.

I expect sometime after the start of the second or third round Cormier’s relentless pursuit, smothering style and athleticism/quickness will have sapped Lewis of his strength and his most important fight trait, his will.

I believe that Cormier finishes Lewis (Cormier ‘Inside the Distance’ prop is -450) but I won’t chase heavy chalk with little to no value so I’ll offer a proposition and allow readers to decide if a shot on Lewis to shock the world is in order for Saturday’s UFC 230. ‘Swing it Easy’.

Cormier wins in round 2: +270 (half)

Cormier wins in round 3: +780 (half)

--Updated 11-3-18 11:30am EST--

Weidman -160 vs. Souza +150

Weidman is the taller, longer wrestling based fighter who gets the privilege of fighting within miles of his home for the second straight fight. He holds physical advantages over Souza and can surely compete in this fight but in my estimation Weidman and Souza should be a pick-em fight even if it is in Weidman’s home town. While I’m confident in Weidman’s fight acumen, it’s his mental state I worry most about for I feel he enters this one with more questions than certainty about his game. Souza on the other hand, is a master of BJJ and though he has shown in past fights to wear as the fight evolves let’s not forget who he has been in there with. Souza went a full fifteen minutes with Romero who mowed Weidman down. Souza has guile, grit and has evolved into a capable striker and it’s his striking in this fight that I believe will be the difference.

Souza +150

Arce -240 vs. Moraes +220

Arce is a boxing based local who is steady, tough, durable but somewhat one dimensional and lacks striking power as his prescription here is to use speed and precision to take Moraes deep then gain advantage. Moraes enters with experience in the octagon against Magomedshapirov which far exceeds the capability of any fighter Arce has been in with. I believe Moraes is a real mangy mutt in this situation.

Moraes +220

Jackson -155 vs. Kelleher +145

Jackson has the physical tools yet is shy on experience while Kelleher will be the much smaller man with a more complete fight arsenal. Kelleher must take the athletic Jackson into the second round and force the fight to him for success.

Kelleher +145


UFC FN138 Oezdimer vs. Smith: KO'd in Canada - 10/27/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 138 from Moncton, New Brunswick Canada. Today’s card is the first of ten full fight cards lined up to finish off 2018 and those cards have some opportunistic match-ups as I look ahead and plan the finish to this year. For that reason, I’ll limit today’s releases mainly because I find the line up to be particularly one sided and laced with mismatches.

Remember people, we are in the profitability business not the ‘action’ business. Our goal tonight is to hit this main event and have a little fun on a couple of bombs shots as we pin our ears back with the focus solely on maximizing our UFC bottom line profitability in this last segment of the year.

As usual we’ll start with my breakdown of the main event. This article was originally published on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ publication this past Wednesday. I might say that PSW is well worth your time and money if you are a serious sports handicapper and want great content from a variety of sports handicappers who all have their own manner and style.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Insight The Octagon: The final quarter of 2018 (published 10-24-18)

As we approach the final months of the 2018 UFC schedule let’s recap the year’s results and highlight a few of the marquee match-ups the UFC will offer fight fans in the last quarter of 2018 before we provide an angle for this week’s UFC FN 138 main event from Moncton New Brunswick.

Both Khabib Nurmagomedov (-165) and Scott Holtzman (+220) were victorious in UFC 229. Profitability for 2018 releases published here on ‘Point Spread Weekly’ stand: 13-12 +3.1units.

It seems tradition that the UFC features high profile match-ups on the cards that are held each November and December. Fight cards I’ll be breaking down as we approach the end of the calendar year are as follows:

November 3rd UFC 230 from New York City features Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier facing Derrick ‘the Black Beast’ Lewis for Cormier’s Heavyweight belt. Co-main event for that card pits Jacare’ Souza against Chris Weidman, two top Middleweight contenders who’ll square off with the winner sure to be considered the next challenger to Champions Robert Whittaker’s belt.

Denver, Co is the location for a November 10th’ UFC Fight Night where all-time great Featherweight Frankie Edgar will face ‘the Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung in an elimination bout. The co-main event of that card will be an intra-gym grudge match between Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and ‘Platinum’ Mike Perry both of whom train out of Jackson/Winklejohn in Albuquerque. We’ll have mucho to say about this one when the time comes.

The next two fight night cards will be held out of the Country as UFC FN 139 will take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina then on to Beijing China for FN140 where Curtis Blaydes gets a Heavyweight rematch against the only man to defeat him since he’s been in the UFC….Francis Ngannou the once scary now scared Ugandan striker.

December’s schedule comes loaded with four fight cards, a fight night from Australia then UFC 231 which offers a much anticipated Featherweight title fight between Champion Max Holloway against undefeated challenger Brian Ortega from Toronto, Canada. Its then on to Milwaukee, WI. for another fight night before the New Year’s Hiatus UFC 232 in Las Vegas where Alex ‘the Mauler’ Gustafsson will face Jon ‘Bones’ Jones in his return to the UFC after his second ‘performance enhancing’ suspension. Gustafsson took Jones five full and lost a tight decision five years ago and this rematch is much anticipated.

UFC Fight Night 138 Saturday 10-27-18

Vulcan Oezdemir -185 vs. Anthony Smith +160 Light Heavyweight Main Event (205lbs.)

Anthony Smith is an imposing 6’4” fighter who’s realized a 7-2 run while in the UFC by utilizing his size, length and power to batter a list of fighters that are now either shot and retired or are no longer actively fighting in the UFC. Smith has substantial power and has been able to dominate the smaller, older and less experienced fighters whom he has built his record on. Smith on the occasions he’s faced world class competition struggles. Well-versed, aggressive opponents that take the fight to Smith and pressure him have success.  Smith is a fighter that absolutely looks the part but when he gets inside the cage with a bully built for brawling he can be stopped. At thirty, Smith has forty-three professional bouts (30-13) and has lost twelve of his thirteen via KO or submission. Though not old Smith’s tread as worn, his competition level weak and his inability to go the distance in previous fights is a flaw. Smith’s success must come early as his cardio and porcelain chin can be flaws as fights progress.

Vulcan Oezdemir in his two-year stint in the UFC has already bested better competition than Smith has faced and his only loss was a relatively competitive KO at the hands of Daniel Cormier this past January. Oezdemir is a developing yet one dimensional striking, kick boxing based fighter. He’ll give away some size and reach to Smith but his forward pressure, his power punching and his granite jaw together make him every bit the favorite in this fight.

When the bell for round one rings I look for each of these men to meet in the middle of the Octagon like two raging rhino’s as neither of these cats wants this on the floor and each one’s strength is the other’s. In this confrontation however it will be Oezdemir who will display more cardio and durability each minute the fight wears on. I believe he’ll be in position finish Smith in the later second or third round.

Oezdemir, currently -185 (opened -165) is a steep price (for this dog player) but as mentioned, I believe he is a worthy chalk. For those of you wishing to obtain more value, I would suggest the Oezdemir ‘ITD” (inside the distance) prop which can be found at +165.

Updated 10-17-18 10:45am EST

As of this writing I have no firm grip on any mangy mutts on this card to be honest and I’m not going to press it with 10 fight cards approaching. Look for any additional releases to come via @Twitter should I get more comfortable with a couple of the ugly mangy Canadian cockers I’m considering.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming