Good Day Enthusiasts. As usual for Triple Crown and Breeders cup Thoroughbred Races we enlist the expertise of our Pony Pro’s ‘the Dream’ and Brutha Shue. These two have been chapped since May when for the first time in many years their positions did not result in bottom line profit for our readers.
It was not difficult to lure these boys back into a discussion for they are both eager to hit the starting gate and provide GambLou.com Enthusiasts some outstanding dialogue with regard to the Classic which takes place Saturday. As is usual for this blog the following discussion took place over the last week or so since the entries were formalized and the DRF data was published.
Here’s the conversation…..
Brutha Shue: OK here’s the numbers for The Classic. And all I can say is…ugh! Nothing really pops out except SHARED BELIEF (5-2) and ZIVO (12-1). As it appears, they’ve run some very consistent closing times. And with SHARED BELIEF, seeming to run very well on both types of surfaces just puzzles me – as they’re usually good on one or the other – just not both. Will have to think a bit more on this untalented group. Maybe just throw out 3 or 4 horses and then box 10?? That’s how clear this one is.
‘The Dream’: Yeah not much to go on with these times as the pace will dictate the race. I know with Moreno and Bayern in the mix you are going to get a hot pace. Closers will be at an advantage if the track is playing fair. Horse’s I can’t throw Shared Belief and Tonalist. I don’t really believe either horse is a lock though. Shared Belief is a horse that is the fastest but has a lot of 1 1/8 medals and pace could compromise him. Tonalist is bred to go 1 ¼ and will be there on any pace scenario just don’t know if he will win. I am latching on to a long shot to be named later. 3 to 4 other horse’s I like we will see. Let me know when you have a bucket of 5. Thanks again for the numbers.. I am giving more credence to horse’s that want 1 ¼ to 1 ½. I think the pace will be strong. Also think you are going to see a TRAVERS, JOCKEY CLUB, GOLD CUP type pace melt down. Moreno has tried to rate and just can’t do it. Bayern and Moreno are going to push the front end with Tonalist and Shared Belief stalking. I will use closers.
Brutha Shue: Well Dean, coming up with a bucket of 5 is pushing it for me. Like my top three – the next two are reaches. Believe Bayern and Moreno will fight for the lead because that’s the only chance they have. CC and Shared Belief will stalk the leaders. And they’ll hopefully get home in this order:
SHARED BELIEF (9-5) – believe this 3 year old just now coming into his own. And can perform on all types of tracks it appears. I was puzzled when they shipped SB back to Golden Gate after winning the Awesome Again Stakes to train on the synthetic Tapeta surface, rather than leave him to train on the dirt at Santa Anita. Well, what I didn’t know was that SB has had to overcome quarter cracks on the inside of both his right front and right rear hooves – which has required special shoeing. Huh? Did-not-know-that! But the Tapeta surface, as Hollendorfer believes, “is a more forgiving surface on which to train daily”. Fine with me Jerry. His last four closing times closing times all rank in the top ten in this group of 14. That’s pretty consistent and super solid – and I like to see that. AND…wait for it…he’s a very fresh 3 y/o! Although I don’t like to play favorites, this one is too good to ignore.
TONALIST (6-1) – ran a monster race last time out in the Jockey Club – beating three of his soon to be rivals come Saturday. Just wonder if he can repeat that same performance. Don’t know if you can “bounce” any higher than the 106 speed figure you posted in your last race. But, he is another fairly fresh 3 y/o. He could very easily just trash the whole field with best jock Rosario aboard. Liked his daddy Tapit lots.
ZIVO (15-1) – this interesting 5 y/o, in my opinion, has quietly become somewhat of a contender in this untalented group. Zivo’s pretty much been a staple at running only 1 mile races – and winning six of those nine races. Also, Zivo has won two of six races when running 1 1/8 and beyond – with some very noticeable closing times. He ran a tough 2nd in the Jockey Club his last race out – but with Wicked Strong clipping heels with Moreno and tossing rider Maragh – perhaps impeded Zivo from a clearer path to victory??? Hard to say – but I think he’s gonna give good effort here. Things I don’t like? Only two Grade I races under his belt running 2nd and 4th respectively. …..and running for the first time outside of the comfy confines of his home city/state of New York. Oh well…..taking a shot here on a swell price.
MORENO (20-1) – he’ll have the lead at the top of the stretch (unless Bayern does), then fade back to 4th? Or 3rd? You can bet Javier will be on the whip that last furlong getting his mule to kick. He’s a solid Grade 1 horse – in with lots of lessers. And ran a few ticks quicker at 1 1/4, save for in the Jockey Club when he clipped heels with Wicked Strong – tossing Maragh.
FOOTBRIDGE (30-1) - here’s the Hail Mary boys! Although being pretty much outclassed here, his closing times are not awful. A forced 5th pick because of the jettison of V.E. Day. And not minding Bejarano on board.
Some comments about the others:
BAYERN (6-1) – just simply cannot go beyond 1 1/8th. Notice also that his last two races that went beyond 1 1/8th – he literally hit the wall in the Travers and the Preakness – finishing 10th and 9th respectively. He will no doubt head for the lead and try and hold on – but watch him start to back up when he hits that quarter pole.
CALIFORNIA CHROME (5-2) – believe this horse is tired. His closing times, even going back to the Kentucky Derby, have been unimpressive. Love the fun he gave us in May though – but no CC, not today.
E. Day (20-1). Liked his closing times and could get up for 4th, 3rd? But with local New Orleans boy Joe Talamo aboard – now I’m not. He, Joe Talamo, not the horse, in way, way over his head. And V.E. Day not that good of a horse to make a bad jockey look good.
Brutha Shue (in second e mail): Interesting! I’m reassessing my picks and trying to see how we can make some $$ on this race. Will be difficult as I think SHARED BELIEF (9-5) is the best of the bunch, and there isn’t anyone else in this race that I fear. It’s hard to make good $ when you like the chalk so much. I’m just waiting for the New Yorker ZIVO (15-1) to show up. Curious to see how he’s gonna take to the track.
Let’s make a side bet Dream – I will bet you a beer, that my FOOTBRIDGE (30-1) finishes ahead of your MAJESTIC HARBOR (20-1). Deal? Meantime, I’ll will have my bets tomorrow. They’ll be pretty much plane Jane with a simple exacta box and maybe a tri perhaps.
Brutha Shue: Dream – let’s just get it out already – I think SHARED BELIEF (9/5) will win. I don’t see any other horse that is in his league at the moment. So picking the ones underneath will be the chore. I myself am not a heavy exotic player like you – so I stretch mine across the board. Hitting any of my ATB plays should pay OK (except Shared Belief) – although I think I may have one too many. I’ll make a decision Saturday on that play. Dream, I am going to play your MAJESTIC HARBOR (20-1), as there very well could be something in the air with him – craving that distance. And the price is so very nice. So…having said all of that – here’s how I’m gonna play:
$10 W-P-S: #6 (9-5); $30.00 Shared Belief
$10 W-P-S: #8 (15-1); $30.00 Zivo
$10 W-P-S: #10 (30-1); $30.00 Footbridge
$10 W-P-S: #11 (6-1); $30.00 Tonalist
$10 W-P-S: #14 (20-1); $30.00 Majestic Harbor
$1 TRI-Box (5 horses); 6, 8, 10, 11, 14; $60.00
Total Wager: $210.00
‘the Dream’: Ok Shue. I too think Shared Belief is the best horse but last race was a hard knocking race and might of taken a little out of him. I am going to use MAJESTIC HARBOR and I am hoping he can climb somewhere on the board. I do know this Tyler Baze will not hold back if he is there at the end so hoping for place or show spot.
My top four choices are CALIFORNIA CHROME, TONALIST, SHARED BELIEF, MAJESTIC HARBOR
I am going to use two wise guy horses underneath in my exotics CIGAR STREET and ZIVO. I will use BAYERN/MORENO/FOOTBRIDGE for the bottom rung in the SUPER. NOTE: at this point of writing I am unaware whether they will allow .10 Superfecta wagering
MY BETS are as follows
$1 Trifecta partial wheel (4 X 6 X 8)
California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Majestic Harbor (4*)
California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Majestic Harbor, Zivo, Cigar Street (6*)
California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Majestic Harbor, Zivo, Cigar Street, Moreno, Bayern (8*)
Total wager: $120.00
IF they have .10 cent Superfecta (NO BET for $1)
.10 cent Superfecta partial wheel (4 X 6 X 9 X 9)*
ADD FOOTBRIDGE to LEG 3 and 4 of the tri partial wheel
I will Box top four in the exacta $4 X 4 = $48.00 California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Majestic Harbor
Lastly, Majestic Harbor $25 W,P,S = $75.00
TOTAL = $327.00 all wagers
WE’LL SEE HOW THIS COMES OUT. It may be overkill using Bayern and Moreno but I want to cash this one.
Well Enthusiasts….there it is. These two Pony Pro’s have been shocking themselves with cattle prods since the Kentucky Derby with their ears pinned back waiting for this Breeders Cup race. They are dead set on making a strong finish to this year’s thoroughbred calendar.
Let’s tail and cash! Good Luck to all!
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