Nurmagomedov -160

Holtzman +260

Formiga +155

Below is my completre write up for the main event originally publsihed 10-3-18 on VSiN's Point Spread Weekly.

Saturday’s UFC 229 from Las Vegas, NV features one of the most anticipated fights in its history as undefeated Russian Lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov puts his title on the line when he faces Conor McGregor, the man who held that title previously but vacated in order to take the Floyd Mayweather super fight last August. I often attribute the ‘Styles make fights’ adage to the late great boxing trainer Mr. Angelo Dundee and in this matchup of dominant fighters that quip is most appropriate.

Khabib Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Conor McGregor +145 UFC Lightweight Title (155 lbs.)

UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov is an ‘International Master of Sport’ in Sambo, Judo, Pankration and ‘Army hand-to-hand combat’ besides being a Russian military veteran and a decorated National wrestler. Few that understand this sport could claim Nurmagomedov is short on the qualifications that comprise a world class fighting machine.

In the Octagon, Nurmagomedov works tirelessly to pressure opponents and render the fight uncomfortable for them by being dominant in his ‘modus operandi’ which is a grappling, clasping, mauling form of fighting. He strives to earn dominant position on the mat where the Russian smothers the opponent while inflicting damage. He relies upon his conditioning as an advantage in fights as his high output aggression eventually usurps the will from his opponents.

Nurmagomedov single focus will be to unleash unrelenting forward pressure to eliminate McGregor’s space then try to clasp and drag him to the floor to gain top position. In his element, when he has the fight going as he mandates, Nurmagomedov is dominant and no one up to Saturday has been able to withstand his pressure.

Nurmagomedov’s greatest area of improvement (often the case with dynamic wrestling /grappling based fighters) is to gain effectiveness/fluidity in striking and slipping opponents strikes as both require the control and manipulation of space. While He has shown great improvement in striking development, Nurmagomedov will be giving away natural striking expertise to the Irishman as McGregor is a savant at controlling space and distance with his movement.

The key to this fight is how/when Nurmagomedov is able to eliminate McGregor’s space in order to gain the clinch. Nurmagomedov must not be predictable, slow or plodding when he attempts to gain the inside or he’ll be victim of those lightning quick precision power shots McGregor is yearning to unleash.

By now even those outside the realm of UFC interest are aware of the magnetism and voracious personality not to mention the extraordinary striking talent of the former UFC Lightweight Champion Conor McGregor. McGregor who is a purple belt in BJJ is a striker but honestly that description is not thorough enough to describe his unique combination of size, length, speed, intrinsic fluidity of movement and profuse power.

For a Lightweight, McGregor is used to being the much larger man in the Octagon. His length usually provides him at least two inches of reach advantage over most competitors (since the inception of the UFC fighters with two inches of reach advantage or more hold a 59% advantage in UFC fights) and in this fight he’ll own a four inch reach advantage over Nurmagomedov.

McGregor’s athleticism and natural talent form a lethal fighting combination but he is reliant on his ability to keep his fights standing and in this bout he’ll NOT be the larger man so McGregor’s take down defense will ultimately determine his fate in this fight.

McGregor’s popularity and leverage within the organization have allowed him to tailor his opponents to fit his style. Instances where McGregor looked his best are when he faced fighters that do not have his size, reach and/or striking ability and power. McGregor HAS been tested (and bested) is when he is forced to compete against fighters his size or larger and/or fighters that have wrestling/grappling prowess.

McGregor, who’s been out of the Octagon for two years now must control space, he must make the Russian chase while simultaneously peppering him with precision power punches. Forcing Nurmagomedov into impatience is the cornerstone of McGregor’s plan for it is when the Russian becomes frustrated and begins to force his way inside recklessly that McGregor will be able to control space and earn angles for power punches.

Part of Conor McGregor’s fight brilliance also happens to be talking his opponent into frustration, anger, distraction or ‘all of the above’. It’s my judgement that in the buildup to this fight and at the press conference just a week or so ago McGregor’s disrespectful chiding of Nurmagomedov’s father (while slugging his new Whiskey with UFC kingpin Dana White) provided Nurmagomedov with more intense focus on this fight as opposed to any other emotion. It also displayed a ‘tell’ I have witnessed in all meteoric ascending successful superstar fighters for almost fifty years now and that is Decadence.  

The history of fighting is laced with examples of generationally gifted fighters who come from poor, dismal upbringing who then experience immediate notoriety, fame, income and all that comes with those. In most cases the vices acquired via their own success is what contributes to their fall more than any opponent.

I believe McGregor’s lavish lifestyle complete with Lear Jets, Veuve Clicquot, designer suits, fast cars and name brand liquor will have a very negative affect on Conor McGregor the fighter Saturday night. After five to seven minutes it’s my judgement that he’ll wilt under the unrelenting pressure Nurmagomedov delivers.

Nurmagomedov -160

Alan Patrick -290 vs. Scott Holtzman +260 Lightweight fight (155lbs.)

Patrick travels to the US after relatively manageable fights in his home country Brazil. He’s a thirty-five year old black belt in BJJ who surely lacks power and perhaps lacks heart. Holtzman has been in with more capable completion, is an improving fighter and is in a favorable position to win this fight against Patrick who may not fare well against Holzman’s forward pressure.

Holtzman +260 

Pettis -175 vs. Formiga +155

Formiga +155

(Holtzman and Formiga pending weigh-ins ..waiting on both underdogs as price may creep up). Full write ups later this week.

UFC 229 releases can be found on VSiN's publication Point Spread Weekly.

I'll be live on 'The Edge' with Matt Youmans and Erin Rynning 1:30PST Friday VSiN.com, VSiNLive and Sirius ch204 to discuss UFC 229 and the NFL week 5.

I'll also be on the Games Galore podcast today with my friend Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards and will release that link when available...It's Business. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night 137 from Sao Paolo, Brazil. The main event has resembled more a shell game than a headline fight as there have been numerous changes made before finally settling on Santos vs. Anders. As usual with these foreign cards, local and regional talent is highlighted and in most cases awarded favorable match-ups. While this leads to great marketing for the region it does not do a lot for competitive matchmaking in so far as the card is steep with heavy favorites. The final main event however sets up to be quite a stand up battle where either fighter has a distinct yet similar path to victory.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

-The following is my Santos vs. Anders breakdown originally published 9-18-18 for VSiN’s “Point Spread weekly”. I’ll provide today’s updates after that article-

Sao Paolo, Brazil hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night 137 where numerous main event changes and many regional/local Brazilian fighters make for another relatively obscure fight card.

The originally scheduled Main event was a Light- Heavyweight (205 lb.) marquee matchup pitting Brazilian Glover Teixeira with Englishman Jimi Manuwa. In my estimation (and I believe in Manuwa’s) Teixeira was made for Manuwa stylistically and maybe Teixeira knew this as he pulled out of the fight early with ‘injury’.

Manuwa was then placed in a similar situation, preparing an old, slow Light-Heavyweight in Teixeira when Middleweight slugger Thiago Santos (another Brazilian fighter) stepped in to grab the main event exposure and fight at Light-Heavyweight (205 lbs.) even though Santos fights at Middleweight (185lbs.).

Mysteriously and just a week ago, Jimi Manuwa pulled out of the fight after having incurred ‘injury’ and will now be replaced by Eryk Anders who fought in August on the card from Lincoln, Ne. Anders was more than willing to grab the opportunity to gain his second Main Event opportunity from the Mecca of MMA, Brazil in less than a year.

It’s my opinion that the cause of ALL of the changes in the main event on this card is based on one fighter having the ‘good sense’ and/or career incentive to duck the more dangerously styled replacement.This refurbished fight card now features a main event where ironically advantage may lie with the replacement fighter (Anders) as opposed to the fighter who has been preparing for the event for weeks.

So in Saturday’s Main event from Sao Paolo the UFC will present us with two active Middleweight fighters (185 lbs.) that will fight on a Main Event as Light-Heavyweights. Santos for his part has been able to appropriately prepare for 205 lbs. (which means he has little to no weight cut in order to make weight).

Anders, who has been maintaining his conditioning for exactly this form of opportunity, now steps into a main event in Brazil where he won’t have to compromise his opportunity to be victorious by trying to cut abundant weight to get to 185.  Though his notice for this fight was just seven days or so his cut will be manageable as he can easily attain the 205 lb. limit. Clearly Anders has been in the gym since that August victory.

We don’t often get as many ‘moving parts’ affecting a fight as this one so I find this match-up intriguing as well challenging. Let’s break it down now that the table is set.

Thiago Santos -145 vs. Eryk Anders +125 Light Heavyweight Main Event (205lbs.)

Santos is not your typical BJJ artist from Brazil who wished to flop on the floor looking to submit the opponent. Rather he is a heavily muscled, profusely powered slugger that can turn an opponent’s lights out with one shot which is why Manuwa wanted no part of him in his own back yard.

Santos who is a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ has little defense against take downs, is quite one dimensional despite the BJJ background and is ineffective fighting from the floor should a fight go there. Santos biggest challenge is his ability to maintain his energy after a full round as he is muscled and has shown a tendency to slow after a full five minutes of battle. Couple this with a glass jaw and you have a fighter in Santos who really would have preferred a slower Jimi Manuwa over an explosive athlete in Anders. If Santos is to win this fight or any fight, it will be with his stand up and via KO and that would have been a bit more manageable against Manuwa than Anders in my judgement.

Eryk Anders steps in on a week’s notice for a dynamic career opportunity. He’s an ex-Alabama linebacker so we know he is tough, athletic and physical albeit somewhat developing in his professional UFC fight experience.

Anders career displayed great promise and ascent up until February of this year when as a hyped and hugely under experienced UFC combatant he accepted a fight against a beguiling experienced Lyoto Machida in Belem, Brazil and earned his PhD. in MMA (Machida schooled the kid and won in a split decision).

Anders is a purple belt in BJJ but also a striking based fighter by nature but as an ex-linebacker I know he can tackle and in this fight we may well see the kid bury Santos and make this fight a maul on the mat. He is very capable of executing take downs on Santos. His experience of fighting in Brazil earlier this year to disappointing results and his willingness to take this fight on seven days-notice all speak volumes for in my estimation the athletic Anders is a poor match-up for Santos in this Anders second trip to Brazil.

Anders power, athletic/explosive ability and his granite chin together make me feel that this fight should be more closely lined; in fact, I make this fight close to pick-em.

One may question Anders cardio having only a week to prepare for this fight and that is fair. It’s my judgement that he’s been preparing for an opportunity since he stepped out of the Octagon in August and he has the potential of being richly rewarded for being a prepared professional.

Fighting in Brazil will not intimidate Anders Saturday for he’ll arrive there this week feeling that he owns the Brazilian people more ‘fight’ than he showed this past February. Anders plan will be to exercise caution early and take the fight to Santos, force the slugger to exert energy which will eventually sap his speed, power and will.

Anders at a dog price is worthy of an investment.

Anders +125

-Updated Saturday 9-22-18 12:45pm EST--

Well fight enthusiasts, if I liked Anders +125 then needless to say that today I like Anders +165!

Not only is it challenging to make these breakdowns the Monday prior to the fight but as a dog player the published VSiN price often offers less gaming value than the price available on the day of the fight. That said, a deadline is a deadline and my basic fight breakdown rarely changes. Don't be afraid to wait a little before pulling the trigger of you do like Anders for you may find another dime of so of value by being patient!

At this point I do have a couple of other leans on this card but nothing I want to publish at this time. I’ll rely on @Twitter for any late mangy mutt musings so stay tuned in!

October 6, 2018 is UFC 229 Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor. Count on a few aggressive positions for that fight card.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 136 from Moscow Russia. As usual I’ll reprint my breakdown of the Main and Co-Main event of the evening then add my updated comments and any other mangy mutt releases I deem worthy of your investment.

There’s mucho to say about the pricing and line movement of the Main event on this card so stay the course with me here.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Originally published 9-12-18 “Point Spread Weekly”

The UFC takes a couple of weeks abroad to further export its brand with this week’s visit to Mother Russia for Saturday’s UFC fight night 136 from Moscow. In the main event New Zealand native and longtime dominant UFC heavyweight Mark ‘the Super Samoan’ Hunt takes on Russia’s own Aleksei ‘the Boa Constrictor’ Oleinik.

These overseas cards are laden with local/regional fighters and this card is no different as there are numerous Russian fighters featured in fights that will be noncompetitive in nature (there are only three fights on this slate where the favorite opened at a price less than -210).

I’m used to attacking these cards for future betting knowledge and fighter data rather than trying to profit off of regional talent and foreign judging especially in lieu of the prices displayed for this event. Also, because these bouts are from Moscow they’ll only be broadcast on UFC’s Fightpass and the bell for the first fight rings this Saturday at 7:30am PST!

Only hardcore fight fans will be tuning into these fights whose sole purpose is to spotlight local Russian fighters therefore increasing the UFC’s image and brand in a Country steeped in fighting history. This is an easy card to overlook but there is one fight on the slate where I feel there is value. Here’s a breakdown of the two main events of that fight slate.

Mark Hunt -200 vs. Aleksei Oleinik +180 Heavyweight Main Event (Under 265lbs.)

This fight can be described simply by viewing each combatant’s nickname as Hunt is a devastatingly powerful forty-four-year-old striker with a granite beak and he faces a forty-one-year-old Russian grappler extraordinaire who lacks striking ability but is as potent a submission specialist as there is in the top divisions of the UFC! 

As Angelo Dundee used to say, “Styles make fights” and this fight will be determined by where it takes place. If the Stocky Samoan keeps this fight standing, then he’ll knock-out the Russian. Oleinik must find a way to overcome Hunt’s strength, girth, power and pressure to try to clasp onto him in order to get Hunt to the ground which is his only chance at getting his hand raised.

Hunt opened -240 and the line has compressed in favor of the Russian here. Oleinik sports some advantage over Hunt as he is four inches taller and will have dynamic arm and leg reach on the super powered Kiwi but Hunt has rarely been the taller man in any of the fights he’s faced in his decade’s long career. It’s my judgement that even if Oleinik arrives with a sledgehammer in his hand he won’t be able to hurt Hunt.

Hunt deserves the favorite’s role and I must say I am a bit surprised in the compression of the line. If this price drops much farther I may have to take a long hard look at Mark Hunt for I see little way a grossly undersized Oleinik (he’ll enter the Octagon at 235lbs.) will be able to take that two-hundred and sixty-five pound (more like 275 lbs. come fight time) fire hydrant to the mat or be able to withstand too many strikes from the surprisingly athletic and explosive Mark Hunt.

Nikita Krylov -110 vs. Jan Blachowicz +100 Light-Heavyweight (205lbs.) Co-main event

Krylov was in the UFC until 2016 but returned to the regional scene in order to improve upon his game and become a more multi-faceted fighter. However, the level of competition he faced was far below that of the UFC standard in my judgement and I didn’t see any real diversity in his game by viewing his recent bouts. Krylov, though a Master of Sport in Kyoshin Karate and hand to hand combat in the Ukraine is still a relatively one dimensional striker who has size and power but who is often overmatched if taken to the floor and deep into a fight.

Blachowicz who has earned his number four ranking in the UFC’s Light-heavyweight division is well more multi-dimensional in his fighting ability and has rattled off three straight wins in a row with the latest being an upset of then, third ranked Light-Heavyweight contender, Jimi Manuwa. Blachowicz is well-rounded and versed anywhere this fight goes. He’ll look to eventually take the longer Ukrainian fighter off of his feet and to the floor for a festival of damaging fists and elbows.

In my judgement Blachowicz should be a moderate chalk in this fight and feel at current pricing (+100) he is worthy of a moderate wager Saturday…. from Mother Russia with love of course.

-Updated 9-14-18 9pm EST-

The smell of bad Borscht is permeating the UFC air as I view the main event line movement. You read my breakdown of the fight and the updated odds now show that Mark Hunt is now -125 over the undersized local submission specialist Oleinik. I’ve long suspected shenanigans out of Russia based on their historical disregard for rules and propensity to do anything required to portray themselves as elite no matter the sport and no matter the decade so excuse me if I point out that their local is getting played like they have tomorrow’s “The Moscow News” sports section in their hands.

Make certain that I’ll be watching this number to see what happens because Hunt -125 is a bargain provided he's not in on the hanky panky…. then we must try to determine how low may it go? Follow me on Twitter @GambLou for updates.

Blachowicz,+140 has moved to official mangy mutt category and I certainly advocate a unit position on him in this fight but be patient and gain every nickel of parlay playing puke action you can grab.

Taisumov -475 vs. Green +440

Taisumov a striker knows he’s in with a strong gifted wrestler so he borrows a page from that Brazilian cheat Prazeres and wallows to and fro the scales 6lbs. over weight at 161 for a fight at 155. This form of outright cheating must be stopped by the UFC rather than rewarding fighters who employ this tactic on purpose knowing that they invest the loss of purse in the future earnings that the win will provide them. Cheating to gain advantage must be stopped.

Meanwhile there’s a fight and Green is no slouch and he’ll give this cheating Rusk’ie bastard all he can handle.

Over 2.5 +125

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 228 from Dallas, Texas. Unfortunately for fans of the Women’s flyweight division that title fight has been cancelled and the battle for its belt will be held at a later date. Many fight enthusiasts choose to belly ache and grip about these cancellations in the fight game that have been occurring since time began but no one more so that the UFC who is trying to bottom line each production. I get that they want their schedule to remain intact but let’s all not be so eager to back an organization that bullies and mandates its fighters and treats them unlike any other professional athlete.

In the end adroit handicapper should be willing to understand what transpires when two people prepare (as fight athlete’s must) for battle and react to whatever information presents itself last minute with more speed, timing and acumen than the marketplace. Our battle is not with the fighter’s or the UFC amigo’s. Our battle is with the ‘Book.

As usual today we’ll post the article published Wednesday 9-5-18 for VSiN’s publication “Point Spread weekly” on the main event and another fight. Following that repost I’ll update all releases and post our final selections.

Enjoy the weekend everyone and remember we’re in this for profit not action!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

originally published 9-5-18 ‘Point Spread Weekly’

This week the UFC offers a Welterweight Title fight from deep in the heart of Dallas, Texas where Tyron Woodley will defend his 170lb.title against English challenger Darren Till. Here’s what I quipped last week on Point Spread weekly about this fight:

Tyron Woodley -115 vs. Darren Till -105 Welterweight Title Fight (170lbs.)

Champion Woodley opened -145 (off shore) and early action has come in on the massive sized challenger from England who towers over the Champion in size. Till’s young, brash, one-dimensional and relatively inexperienced especially against capable grappling/wrestling based fighters. Woodley’s a two time all American wrestler with a brown belt in BJJ who is an extremely explosive and powerful striker. Woodley is a bargain at -115 so I advise some investment now as I do believe he should be the favorite in this match-up. If the line continues to go Woodley’s way, we won’t be shy.

 Current pricing remains the same and I’ll stand by my comments that Woodley is being a bit undervalued in this fight. Till’s size (especially standing next to Woodley), his brash talk and striking style make for an imposing fighter but there is more to MMA than size and a single dimensional fight arsenal. 

Till spent a few years honing his craft in Brazil and owns a purple belt in Luta Libra fighting though in the fire of battle he can revert to the street thug brawler that is at his base. Till must not be allowed to fight from and control the middle of the Octagon as his last two opponents easily allowed. He’s at his strength controlling the center of the octagon and fighting Woodley from a measured distance is his way to win this fight.

Any opponent who wants to tackle Till must be able to force the massive Welterweight backwards and make him exert high energy over time. This is where he’s most vulnerable. Until this fight he’s had the pleasure of fighting smaller striking based fighters with well less acumen and wrestling ability than Tyron Woodley and each allowed Till to make the fight by controlling pace.

The first order of business for Woodley is to be both patient in his charges and unrelenting with his pressure as he must manage to force the giant backwards and make him exert energy. Pushing the brassy Brit back for a round or two and making him defend takedown attempts will physically tax Till and limit the speed and power of his long looping telegraphed Sunday shots.

The Woodley plan is patience and pressure based but this fight must eventually find its way to the floor with Woodley on top, reigning damage if Woodley is to retain his title. Woodley must be able to weather the early minutes of this fight then in premeditated fashion begin to apply unrelenting forward pressure on the Brit.

In order for Woodley to retain he must make Till uncomfortable in the cage and it is with steady measured forward pressure that Woodley must execute his plan Saturday.

Recent UFC title fights have featured nonstop fighting fury and but based on each man’s historic pace and tendencies don’t be surprised if this match-up puts the fans to sleep rather than one fighter knocking another out.

That said, Woodley’s All-American pedigree in wrestling, his power, cardio, vast experience edge and fight intelligence together provide him advantage over a young fighter that I believe will earn his PhD. in MMA Saturday Night.

Woodley -115

Abdul Razak Alhassan -165 vs. Nico Price +125

Nico Price is two inches taller than Alhassan, he’ll own a three- inch reach advantage with both arms and legs as well Price is five years the younger fighter (62% advantage when one fighter is five or more years younger than their opponent). These physical advantages coupled with the fact that Price has the more complete offensive arsenal make Price an underdog that I am watching closely as we approach weigh-ins. Any potential release on Nico Price will be made after weigh-ins and via Twitter @GambLou.

-Updated 9-8-18 11am EST-

We now have Woodley in hand -115 and then yesterday we took another unit +130 making the two-unit price +108 which is still a value based on Woodley’s opening price of -145.

Also regarding the Alhassan vs. Price fight, as you can see we have lost opportunity to gain market advantage on Price as he is now +110 which is why there was no release on him via @Twitter. Price as a dog of +125 was a consideration but any value on Price as a mutt is now gone. While Price has some physical advantages in this fight let’s not underestimate his lack of defense and Alhassan’s quickness and power. We’ll watch this one as I am now actually leaning to Alhassan which means….Pass.

Neal -190 vs. Camacho +180

Here’s a fight where two charging bulls will compete for the center of the Octagon. Neal is from Texas and will be ready to provide his best but where he excels (an aggressive boxing based striker) is where Camacho thrives too. The difference may be that once they both get tired from Sunday punching one another Camacho can turn to his more complete wrestling game. Let’s trust he has the IQ to try to win this fight as opposed to just try to KO the local which is the more treacherous approach.

Camacho +180 (half)

Others I’m watching:

I lean heavily to a couple favorites which is why I am dallying only because if the price continues to drop then I may actually pull the trigger on both White’s. One dog I am watching is John Dodson. That fight is completely baffling as Rivera has the size and power but I am not sure if he can catch JD while Dodson is a pitter patter puncher who will be unable to take Rivera out in my estimation unless that KO via Moraes is still affecting Rivera.

If I move on any of these fights, they’ll be released via @GambLou on Twitter prior to the opening bell of course!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 135 from Lincoln, Ne. The UFC has been on a break the last few weeks and the recharge was welcomed as we may now can focus on the last third of the 2018 UFC calendar. Yes, profits in 2018 UFC have been thin but the campaign is for a full year.

Conservative wagering has allowed us to realize a poor win percentage yet still be in position to realize bottom line profitability by the end of the year. We’re going to have to put a few weeks together here which is exactly how this works in real life people. Grinding out of a slow period of profitability is a reality of long term Profitable Sports Gaming. If you can’t work your way through periods of adversity, then this may not be the game for you. For me…. I love the competition and now there’s just one thing remains to be done…. focus and close like an Irish Thoroughbred racehorse down the stretch.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business). 

-Originally publsihed 8-22-28 Point Spread Weekly-

The UFC returns Saturday with a Fight Night event “from the town of Lincoln, Nebraska” featuring a Lightweight main event where Justin ‘the Highlight’ Gaethje takes on James ‘The Texecutioner’ Vick. Here’s a breakdown for that main event with another fight from the undercard.

James Vick -155 vs. Justin Gaethje +135 Lightweight main event (155lbs.)

James Vick is a massive Lightweight standing 6’3” and sporting a 76” inch reach. Vick’s used to being the longer, taller man in the Octagon and when firing on all cylinders uses a stiff jab to maintain distance which allows him to set up a straight right hand. Vick is most effective working off that jab and utilizing an accumulation of punches to best opponents for one punch power he does not possess. Vick is a relatively one dimensional striking based fighter who lacks any real wrestling prowess or ability to effectively grapple in close range. He must compete from distance where his range can be dominating offensively and as importantly defensively for he is lacking in the clinch. Many tall fighters must protect against ‘tall man’s disease” which simply put is the propensity for the taller man’s chin to be easily protruding and in range once opponents can make their way insider of the taller fighter to exchange.  Vick must not allow Gaethje to clasp, clinch or grapple in this fight if he is to come away victorious for his beak is relatively weak as Vick’s been knocked out by strikers well less apt than Gaethje.

Gaethje’s recent fights have displayed his tendency to walk his opponents down and engage in stand up wars as he tried with recent opponents Alvarez and Poirier. This is great for ratings but not so smart against the highest level of UFC competition. It’s a tactic has worked well against less than world class opponents but has not worked so well against Gaethje’s recent competition which is certainly a level above anyone that Vick has been in the Octagon with. One offensive tactic Gaethje employs against all of his opponents (which he must work Saturday) are his devastating leg kicks. Leg kicks will help Gaethje

overcome his five-inch arm reach disadvantage as well can damage the base of the striker Vick thus limiting his ability to maintain space.

Gaethje has a solid wrestling base though one would hardly know this from watching his recent body of work. If he is really looking to maintain his standing inside the UFC and the Lightweight division then he must use fight intelligence and utilize his wrestling in this matchup.

Leg kicks, closing distance and fighting inside will be the Gaethje plan. Once he works his way inside and clasps onto the longer striker, he’ll apply damage from the pocket then eventually haul him to the floor for top control and dominant positioning. It’s mandatory that Gaethje force this fight to the floor and make Vick utilize energy in both trying to remain upright, then once Vick is grounded to force him to struggle to get back to his feet.

This fight comes down to Gaethje employing fight IQ, staying with the plan that he’ll no doubt be provided with (which is to get inside to maul and wrestle the longer more one dimensional fighter) and force this fight into a maul on the mat. Pride may be Gaethje’s biggest opponent Saturday night and provided employ’s all of the aspects of mixed martial arts in his arsenal then Gaethje should chop down the longer striker early with leg kicks then take this fight to the floor where the ‘Texecutioner’ will be unable to effectively compete over the course of five rounds.

Gaethje +135

Deiveson Figueiredo -160 vs. John Moraga +140

Figueiredo is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who is well-versed in Muay Thai and boxing. He’s 3-0 in the UFC but has had the pleasure of fighting all his UFC matches in Brazil and against opponents not as versed in MMA as is Moraga. For this fight he’ll travel into the USA and I must say that getting to Lincoln, Ne. from anywhere in the US is problematic so flying into Lincoln from Brazil is something that will force me to watch the weigh-ins closely as there are numerous Brazilian fighters making this trip into the heartland and the toil of travel may absolutely affect a fighters weight and mental well-being.

While capable on the floor, Figueiredo will want to make this a striking battle with Moraga which is where they feel they’ll have advantage. Moraga is a dominant wrestling based fighter who has had to improve upon his boxing in order to realize his recent resurgence and has done so with great effectiveness. The Moraga plan will be to engage the Brazilian only long enough to turn this into a wrestling/grappling match. The feeling at the Moraga camp is that Moraga’s wrestling and cardio will be advantages and the key to this fight. Moraga has won his last three fights in a row and is a tireless worker in the gym. I look for a closely contested decision win for John Moraga. When it’s this close rely on the wrestler.

I’ll choose to watch this line increase as we near the opening bell knowing that Moraga may well close at a higher price than we are seeing today (He opened -105). I’ll release this fight officially via twitter at or just after weigh-ins as this price is slowly rising.

8-25-18 12:55pm EST

Moraga +140

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Let’s make some knee jerk observations after a couple of pre-season NFL contests. This article is designed to offer insight and serve up controversial positions as we roll toward the commencement of the 2018 NFL season.

I’ll start with Richard Sherman who will be nothing other than a glorified coach for the Niners this year. He (as well as all other previous superstar NFL oversized cornerbacks) have a very tight bell curve of dynamic play. When their time comes however it comes fast and I consider Sherman a shell of his former self less than a year off of ACHILLIES issues. This cat has a dynamic education and he’ll need to call upon it very soon as he’s no longer viable as a starting CB on Sundays.

Jacoby Brissett has starting caliber talent and could start for numerous other teams in the league. I’d value him well above Teddy Bridgewater although I can’t feel the Dolts will ever make Brissett available to the market. Brissett is strong, smart, athletic and a clear leader on the field. I’m very impressed.

Other than Chris Hogan….who the hail is Tommy going to toss to? Patriots are well coached no doubt but they have plenty of holes in their team. The question is: Will the dismal AFC be able to do anything about it?

I always say that you have to protect the player from himself. Exhibit ‘A’ this year id Carson Wentz. Athletes are very insecure and they always rush back to get onto the field. If Wentz starts the season it is a huge risk because he is not ready less than 10 months after an MCL and ACL reconstruction. If Foles starts and does well then Wentz will pressure the team to return sooner than is wise. What do the Eagles do if Foles is showing Super Bowl MVP caliber play after a couple of week? The eagles are a deep team on the O and D lines but their receivers have hardly played any football, they have potential issues with the QB position, a torturous schedule and only average running backs. Under 10.5 season wins.

Kyle Shanahan went out and paid Jerick McKinnon. I expect a huge roll for him this year between the 20’s but question his durability over the course of 17 weeks.

NFC West? The Rams will be the hunted, The Niners are as overvalued as any team in the league and the Hawks will struggle greatly with achieving a team identity now that the legion of boom is gone. That leaves the lowly Cardinals as the team I expect to overachieve this year in the NFC west but man is that O-line putrid.

Kelvin Benjamin is a punk. Why talk if you aren’t willing to then face your victim like a man. What a bum.

The Cowboys are one-dimensional on offense and overly depended on one man on the defensive side of the football. If Sean Lee goes down the Poke’s will be playing from behind all year. That’s how you take Zeke out of the equation.

Why is Mel Gordon going to explode this year? Well that’s easy. Mike Pouncey baby.

This past week RB Carson is barreling into the end zone from a goal line play when defensive bad ass Melvin Engram measured him up and took a five yard run at him before lowering his head and blowing the running back up causing a fumble. Where was the new rule on that play?

The threat of litigation is absolutely killing the game of football. Jeez.

Jacksonville displayed an effective way to deal with that vaunted Viking defense. They ran those big linemen around all game chasing the screen pass. Not only did the tactic work effectively for the Jag O but it tired those 300 pounders down a great bit. Look for others to borrow that plan.

And again the Viking and Bolts getting affected by season ending injuries which hit the Vikes in the O-line and the Bolts at TE and damn near every other position they field.

Mahommes has an arm and that group will need to put up 30 per in order to compete.

The Browns are a mess. Yeah they’ll win a few this year but as long as Hue is in view the wins will be few.

And then there’s the Lions. Giant QB Lauletta made their defense look quite pedestrian in game two of the pre-season. Patricia is in over his ski’s. Just my take.

GambLou.com

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