UFC FN Liverpool Thompson vs. Till: The Till is gone - 5/27/2018
W: 0 L: 0
Win: %
Result: 0

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight night Liverpool, England. Below is my breakdown of the main event between Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Darren ‘the shill’ Till. I demean Till on purpose for fighters that speak shit about being the greatest then miss weight badly only confirm that they are unprofessional and unprepared to be a champion. Till’s missed weight and the organization needed this headliner to make their card in Liverpool profitable. So the result of Till missing is that he sports advantage in a fight in his home town in front of his fans and he enters with unfair advantage. This is a broken system that needs to be fixed as all six fighters who have missed badly in 2018 have gone on to win.

Losing a few percentage points of your pay to own unfair advantage in a fight is clearly an accepted ploy for cheaters and the UFC is burying their head in the sand regarding this tactic that more and more is becoming a plan and a practice.

The UFC MUST address this for it is enables cheaters to benefit at the expense of the professional well-prepared fighter.

It’s impossible to regard the UFC as a legitimate entity when they proclaim that the rules in place do not apply and can be manipulated for something as arbitrary as a ‘family emergency’.

Man does the UFC need some leadership and practice in ethics ….badly.

Here’s my breakdown of the main event published Wednesday May 23 on the VSiN networks publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’.

Published 5-23-18

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night from Liverpool, England. This week they fight on Sunday morning (in the USA) starting at 6:16am PST! The main event will go off about 11:30 am PST so we’ll wake up Sunday morning to left hooks and lattes. Here’s a look at the main event.

Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -115 vs. Darren ‘the Gorilla’ Till -105, 5 rounds Welterweight 170lbs

As discussed previously the UFC is working diligently on exporting their product around the globe and it’s off to England after a couple weeks in South America. As was the case last week, this slate is comprised of relatively obscure fighters and features an abundance of regional European talent. I use a fight card like this for due diligence purposes only obtaining fighter intel for future use in other MMA opportunities.

Sunday’s main event is going to be a competitive affair as we have two dynamic striking based fighters who with an impressive victory should insure themselves a shot at Welterweight champion Tyronn Woodley.

Darren Till is an abrasive, young, brash, English fighter who comes complete with size, power and bad intention. His October demolition of Donald Cerrone (a blown up Lightweight) made Till the talk of the division as the kid is a strong willed, forward pressing, aggressive fighter who talks a big game, at least thus far. Till’s career has spanned a mere five years so he’s still a bit green and in need of refinement. While he is powerful and determined he can also be reckless, wide/wild, and he’s quite one dimensional. He’s a front running fighter meaning he looks like a world beater in the first round but tends to exhaust himself as the fight wears past the first five minutes. Till’s confident in his ability to take the opponent out early and has compromised himself in past fights displaying that lack of experience by taking to frenetic a pace early. I see this as one of his major flaws.

His exuberance to engage in an immediate furious firestorm and his overly aggressive nature tends to completely drain Till later in fights transferring him from a powerful destroyer a lumbering, stationary statue. Those that have made it past the first round with him have all taxed Till and none of those fighters are of Thompson’s championship skill level. In 2015 against Nicholas Dalby Till was clearly ahead after two rounds only to be battered in the third round and settle for a draw. In his fight prior to the Cerrone devastation against a journeyman fighter in Velickovic he again slowed late in round two and earned a close decision. I did mention that his is a scheduled five round fight eh?

Till will be dangerous early in this fight but in my judgement he has many holes in his fight game. He’s a typical English striking based fighter in that he stands erect then as he expends abundant energy he slows substantially and drops his arms. Later in fights he lacks any quickness if he had any to begin with, his defense becomes lax if nonexistent and his erect stature makes him an easy target to hit. Till’s rarely had to fight from the floor nor has he been in the Octagon with an experienced, diverse, precision striking veteran like Thompson.

Stevie Thompson’s on the other hand happens to be a most polished and professional fighter who’s gone five rounds twice recently against current Welterweight Champion Woodley. He’s been in the Octagon with the best fighters of the division and has dominated. He’s beaten names like Hendricks, MacDonald and Masvidal as well took Woodley to a draw before losing their second five round Championship bout.

Thompson is a Kempo/kickboxing/Jujutsu artist who’s versed enough with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to be able to hold great advantage over Till on the mat should he decide to take him there which I believe may be a real possibility.  Anything Thompson can do to force the youthful Brit to expend energy is going to enable Thompson, a veteran of several five round fights to appropriate distance between he and Till then batter the Brit with a barrage of precision striking from arms, legs, knees and elbows once the youth tires and he will tire.

Thompson will employ steady movement to control distance and keep Till on the outside and force him to rush inside to engage the ever-moving fluid striking Thompson. Sunday morning you’ll see Thompson acting as a matador in the first round and Till the bull as he tries to overwhelm Thompson and gore him with early explosive engagement.

Thompson must not engage early with Till and allow the Englishman to start tossing those wide Sunday shots rather he needs to stick to the plan that will be evasiveness early. Thompson will want to batter in oncoming bull with strikes and employ a steady leg kick attack to slow the brash young brawler. Movement, fluid counterstriking and a constant leg attack will force Till to expend energy in an attempt to run down the cagier veteran and try to overwhelm him with his strength.

I view Darren Till as a dangerous prospect but I believe he has been pushed a bit to far too fast in this evolution to become a Champion. I believe this fight goes a long way in determining how long it will take the Englishman to learn the many other aspects of mixed martial arts other than pure youthful power. Till in there Sunday against a more polished precision-based fighter with experience and Championship mettle and for those reasons I view Thompson to be value priced.

Till’s going to earn his PhD. In MMA the hard way Sunday morning when he steps into the Octagon with a man who is more complete than he in every single aspect of MMA fighting save for brute strength and early power.

Thompson -115

Update 5-26-18

If Till’s travesty was not bad enough now the other local Liverpoolian on the card Molly (more meatballs please) McMann missed weight by a couple pounds then after forty more minutes of cutting to take the last pound off stepped back on the scale at the same weight as when she missed. The local fighters are really spitting up all over themselves this morning. Anyway, McMann could barely walk upon her first miss and enters this fight against a fighter well prepared to make a statement, fresh and ready to fire. Robertson is a grappler/wrestler and is prepared to make a splash in the UFC. I believe this fight does hit the floor especially in lieu of the weigh-in results and once on the floor this is all Robertson.

Robertson +150

more tomorrow if some number fall where they need to to make me move. Enjoy the fights

Thompson -120
???
Result: 0
Robertson +150
???
Result: 0


UFC FN Liverpool: Thompson vs. Till - 5/27/2018
W: 0 L: 1
Win: %
Result: 0

5-23-18 9:30am EST

Thompson -120

Remember fight Enthusiasts this card takes place early AM PST Sunday morning!

Full  write up available on Point Spread weekly via VSiN and I will break it all dowenplus other releases Saturday.

Thompson -120
???
Result: 0


UFC FN Maia vs. Usman: Choked out in Chile - 5/19/2018
W: 0 L: 4
Win: %
Result: -350

5-19-18 10:35pm EST

Making Cannonier a full unit wager

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight Night from Santiago Chile. Below is the column I submitted this week for Point Spread Weekly which can be accessed via VSiN.com. Following that main event breakdown is an update that includes my other releases for the UFC.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

UFC Fight Night 129

(Published 5-15-18 Point Spread Weekly)

Kamara Usman -400 vs. Damian Maia +325 Main Event (Welterweight 170lbs.)

This week’s UFC card remains in South America with a trip to Santiago, Chile for Fight Night 129. Kamara Usman is a rising star in the UFC. He faces Damian Maia who’s recognized as a World Class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master and one of the most feared submission specialists in MMA.

Rather than a stand-up brawl and toe to toe affair Maia must find a way to fight at his strength which is on the floor. Usman however is an NCAA Division II Championship wrestler who’ll sport outstanding take down defense which sets up the cat and mouse for this fight. I learned long ago that kryptonite to World Class BJJ specialists is a wrestling-based fighter with a well-rounded fight arsenal.

Wrestling prowess provides a fighter with the needed leverage, floor ability and hand control to not only compete with BJJ artists but at times dominate them. Conditioning and toughness are also innate advantages for wrestlers as they know little other than grinding, grappling and groping for hours daily.

To complete their MMA fighting arsenal wrestlers need to develop precision striking ability which is something they often lack. They also must learn how to take a straight power punch to the point of the jaw which never happens in their competitions. This takes time as it is not natural or easy to learn then employ.  However, once a wrestling-based fighter arms themselves with fluidity about their stand-up game (both offensively and defensively) and an ability to take punches then the ascent to world Champion will soon follow.

I’ve just provided you with a portrait of Kamara Usman.  Usman is all of the above with an abundance of bad intention laced throughout. While no spring chicken he is fresh into the sport as a thirty-one-year-old who’s been fighting professionally since 2012. He’ll have a ten-year age advantage on Maia (forty) who’s only real angle in this fight is to catch Usman in a mistake and try to submit him early. I’ve not seen Usman eat a huge power punch and (like most wrestlers) the jury is out on his ability to take a Sunday shot but Damian Maia is not the fighter that’s going to test Usman with any form of stand-up threat Saturday night.

Maia took this fight on short notice and off a one-sided decision loss to another complete wrestling-based fighter in Colby Covington, so he feels prepared for what he’s going to face. Maia’s edge over Usman is his guile and fighting savvy and he’ll need to all of it to bait Usman into a mistake as this is the only way I see Maia getting his hand raised. He takes this fight with the ambition of surprising the division and earning himself a last gasp Championship opportunity but in my judgement he is overmatched in every aspect of this competition save for his vast fighting experience.

Update 5-19-15

Currently the pricing on Usman is reaching foolish levels for Maia is capable to capitalizing on an Usman mistake should he slip and make one. We’ll allow the parlay playing pukes to continue to push this and report closer to opening bell via @Twitter if this number meets the necessary prerequisites to consider a nominal position on Maia…

Cummings -170 vs. Prazeres +150

This is ‘The big payback’ for Prazeres who in previous fights at 155lbs (Lightweight) blatantly cheated by grossly missing weight in order to win the fight as well is telling us by those repeated attempts to compete at 155 that at 170 he is undersized and many times overmatched. In steps Cummings who is younger, taller, longer than the Brazilian but also has a complete wrestling arsenal capable of keeping this up with take down D or thriving on the mat should it go there. Prazeres is a pip and he gets his ‘big payback’ today.

No play because I missed earlier value on Cummings damnit

Benitez -180 vs. Bandenay +160

Benitez from Mexico is the more polished precision striking fighter who can be tested on the mat. His opponent from Peru is the younger, longer, larger fighter and is a deadly striking based fighter who will probably not choose to make this a maul on the mat. Rather this fight will be decided by who controls the distance to their liking the best. Benitez needs to work inside and Bandenay will want to maintain space in order to deliver lethal and powerful kicks and strikes. This fight opened up about a pick-em which was off as Benitez should be a chalk. That said, Benitez -195 is too high in my judgement. Value play here

Bandenay +160

Pantoja -115 vs. Moreno +105

I’m surprised Pantoja is chalk here. He did win their first fight as this IS a rematch, but I believe Moreno’s overall fight growth and development since their first match is more substantial and I like the revenge factor. Moreno who by the way opened -170, is longer, taller, more athletic and has reach so he does qualify for mangy mutt status.

Moreno +105

Luque -195 vs. LaPrise +180

Luque will have family in attendance. He’s younger, powerful well rounded and sports abundant power. LaPrise is the more technical striker here and will need to weather the early typhoon that will be Luque on the lurch but it’s LaPrise who may be able to control space with his precision striking and take the monster Luque deep into this fight where he has shown a tendency to tire and slow. It’s marathon not a sprint.

LaPrise +180

Reyes -220 vs. Cannonier +200

Reyes is tall, long, young and incredibly one dimensional. Cannonier is the much smaller man but in past Heavyweight and LHW fights he’s displayed an ability to compete being the much smaller man. I watch Cannonier train and I can tell you all that if he makes it into the second round his speed, explosion and cardio will expose this tall one dimensional yet powerful striker in Reyes.

Cannonier +200 (half)

Suarez -750 vs. Grasso +650

This line is way off based on Suarez’s one dimensional (but lethal) wrestling and Grasso’s striking and edge in experience. Show me.

Grasso +650 lunch money wager

 

 

Bandenay +180
Loss
Result: -100
Moreno +105
Loss
Result: -100
LaPrise +180
Loss
Result: -100
Cannonier +200 half
Loss
Result: -50


UFC 224 Nunes vs. Pennington: - 5/12/2018
W: 2 L: 3
Win: 40%
Result: -70

Welcome UFC Enthusiasts to UFC 224. Below is my article which appears weekly on Point Spread weekly via the VSIN Network. Its subscription based but well worth the investment if you are serious about the profession of Profitable Sports Gaming. After the PSW piece I do have a couple later additions. Good Luck and enjoy the fights

Published 5-9-18

UFC 224 takes us Saturday to the birthplace of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rio de Janeiro Brazil. I’ve mentioned previously that fight cards conducted outside of the United States often provide regional fighters with favorable match-ups designed to contribute to the exportation of the UFC in that region. The UFC is comprised of a relatively young demographic so local fighters having success in Brazil, Bangkok or Berlin seeds regional growth and is in the best interest of the organization.

Let’s Fight

Amanda Nunes -650 vs. Rachel Pennington +480 Women’s Bantamweight Title (135lb)

Speaking of local flavor here is Exhibit A. This fight is a set-up fight intended to spike interest/hype in Amanda Nunes for a super fight is on the horizon if she can beat Raquel Pennington. With a victory Saturday Nunes will be in position to then move on to fight the most dominant female fighter in MMA, Chris Cyborg. 

Nunes will be the larger lady in the Octagon. She’ll hold a striking advantage, a strength advantage and is capable of controlling Pennington on the mat. This is a substantial step up for Pennington who’s been inactive due to injury since September of 2017. Pennington could shock the MMA world but it’s highly unlikely as the odds suggest. We’ll revisit Nunes when she does in fact step into the Octagon with Cyborg in a few months. Nunes should finish Pennington in this fight.

‘Jacare’ Souza -150 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +130 Middleweight (185lb) Here’s the ‘styles make fights’ match-up though there are a handful of other wrestler/grappler vs. striker fights on this card that offer great value.

Souza is the number two ranked Middleweight. He’s a world class BJJ savant who’s dominant on the mat and over the fifteen years he’s fought at the professional level he’s lost only five times (one NC). Conducting this fight from the floor is mandatory for Souza as it will allow him maximum advantage. Souza, the larger man in the Octagon Saturday will want to measure himself against Gastelum on his way inside to clasp the smaller man and drag him down to the dirt. Souza is twelve years the older fighter which provides him an edge in experience but understand that there is wear on that body after years of war and attrition which (some of) his recent fights have displayed. Souza’s goal will be to limit his stand-up time against Gastelum and grope him as it will allow him to more efficiently employ the guile and stealth of his dynamic Jiu-Jitsu while allowing him to regulate energy output. Souza does not want this to be a stand-up affair.

Gastelum is a wrestling-based fighter with developed boxing ability. He’ll be the more explosive, quicker, precision striker who’ll use footwork to control space and employ take down defense to keep this fight upright where he can force Souza to fight out of his comfort zone. Gastelum must use movement to control distance on the Brazilian and pepper him with precision shots when Souza attempts to work his way inside to clasp. Where this fight takes place will go a long way in determining the outcome. Gastelum must be active early and force this fight on the Brazilian. It’s important for Gastelum to guide this fight into the second round where his stamina, speed and explosion will become more apparent and Souza’s chin more exposed. Souza has been touched recently and if this fight remains on the feet he will get touched again.

Gastelum opened -105 and is now +130. Patience will provide more value as we near the opening bell for the chalk chasers are sure to move on the Brazilian as we near opening bell.

Gastelum +130.

I have a couple live dogs for this card. Here’s one I’ll release now because the price may contract as we near the bell for round 1.

Mackenzie Dern -220 vs. Amanda Cooper +200

Dern is the super talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist from Arizona whose father (Wellington Dias) is as highly decorated a BJJ/Judo artist as there is. Dern’s been a BJJ savant since childhood which may be both good and bad. It’s good because she’s clearly gifted and naturally talented but maybe too much so. Talent needs work ethic to blossom fully and it’s questionable how much time she devotes to developing the other important fighting skills it takes to be a complete martial artist. To say Dern is one dimensional is an understatement but to say she is supremely gifted in BJJ is also understated. Dern needs this fight on the floor which will allow her to show her Countrymen that she is a new ambassador for the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but will she be able to get the fight down to the mat? This will be the key to this outcome.

Amanda Cooper is a boxing-based fighter who’s been alternating wins and losses as she seems to be able to control stand up fights, yet she struggles with ground fighters. Cooper enters this fight knowing that this is a career opportunity and she’s trained appropriately for it. Cooper will need to use strikes to keep the oncoming Dern away from her and punish her in the process.  Cooper is keenly aware of the single dimensional dominance of Dern. It will be interesting to see how she utilizes movement, striking and cardio to maintain distance to damage Dern.

Dern’s a fighter that when the light shine’s she shows up to compete but she has questionable training habits. Cooper’s been training for this opportunity and based on the interviews I have seen from her (as well the time I’ve spent in Dern’s former gym) I feel Cooper will be able to keep this fight upright and be very competitive as a +225 underdog.

Cooper +225

5-12-18

Zaleski dos Santos -110 vs. Strickland +100

ZDS looked great in his last but he’s nowhere near as refined a fighter as is Strickland who’s only been bested by top guys in the division. Tough draw for the Brazilian here and value on the longer, younger more well-rounded fighter…..by far.

Strickland +100

Ramos -150 vs. Hein +140

Davi Ramos looks the part and is a world class grappling based fighter who can strike with power but he can be wide and lunging as opposed to straight and precise. Hein is short, squat, experienced and comes to fight. He’s got a low sturdy Judo based attack and his wrestling and will are used to wear opponents down. I believe that’s exactly what’s going to occur here. Let’s pull Hein into the second round where his will and pace will wear the Brazilian down.

Hein +140

Roberson -110 vs. Ferreira +100

Ferriera has a papier-mache’ chin which is alarming against a world class kickboxing/striking based fighter. That said I do not believe Roberson who’s making his first trip out of the US as well his second fight in the UFC is aware of the reception he will get in Rio. I also believe Ferreira large enough and cagey enough to clasp on to the smaller man, drag him to the floor for a flopping fine time. We spoke of this fight with Gabriel Morency on the radio this week when ‘el Mutante’ was +135 or +140. I still like him at even money.

Ferreira +100

 

Gastelum +130
Won
Result: +130
Cooper +225
Loss
Result: -100
Hein +140
Loss
Result: -100
Strickland +100
Loss
Result: -100
Ferreira +100
Won
Result: +100


UFC FN 129 Barboza vs. Lee: 'beat me tonight in Atlantic City' - 4/21/2018
W: 1 L: 1
Win: 50%
Result: +50

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 129.

My main event breakdown between Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee has been affected by Lee’s lack of professionalism in not making weight. Normally I rail against fighters who attempt to gain advantage by manipulating the rules to their favor. In Lee’s case, he bumbled his way through the weigh-in process eventually missing weight and has cause himself numeric disadvantage by doing so.

On March 11th I released Lee -120 on Point Spread Weekly then this week followed up with the comments below. Yesterday after the outspoken Lee missed the limit (by a pound) I covered all exposure with Barboza +140.

Lee -120 was a strong position with the understanding that he was bringing a 110% focused effort BUT the kid is young, he’s fighting a dangerous, desperate fighter who’s second home is Atlantic City and he spits up on himself in preparation for this career opportunity? I’m not comfortable with the effort I can expect from Lee so now I’ll step out of the main event. This is not an ideal situation as I never like to take a wager down unless warranted. I believe this move is a responsible one. There will be hundreds of other UFC bouts this year so the reaction today to Lee’s ineptitude is comfortable restraint..

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Edson Barboza +120 vs. Kevin Lee -140 (published 4-18 PSW*)

Atlantic City, NJ hosts the UFC this week and the main event is yet another duel of top Lightweight’s each entering the Octagon with varying strengths. Saturday, fourth ranked Barboza looks to erase the memory of his late December drubbing at the hands of Lightweight Champion Nurmagomendov by defeating Lee which will insure his position as top Lightweight contender.

Barboza a Brazilian who’s earned a brown belt in BJJ is most comfortable working behind a lethal employment of Muay Thai, Taekwondo and boxing. Barboza will be the taller, longer man who’ll strive to do his damage by maintaining distance from the opponent where he can inflict damage with steady striking and lethal leg kicks. Barboza’s decision to take this fight against an up and coming talent off a one-sided but experience gaining loss is a dubious one in my judgement. It was less than four months ago that Barboza took a full fifteen-minute beatdown in a title eliminator to Nurmagomedov and now he turns around quite quickly to take on another top talent. Fight history is laden with examples of fighters turning around too quickly to take on other top ranked competition only to learn that patience for body but most especially mind is critical.

Kevin Lee, at twenty-five is seven years younger than Barboza. While experience favors the Brazilian let’s not forget that in the UFC fighters more than five years younger than the opponent prevail 62% of the time*. Lee’s strength as a mixed martial artist is that he’s a dominating grappler/wrestler.  His striking has improved enough to be able to work inside Barboza’s range where he may clasp, hug and ram the opponent against the fence then onto the mat. He’ll aim to copy Nurmagomedov’s fight plan for Barboza. Lee’s advantages in athleticism, quickness and youth make him a most dangerous opponent for the cagey Brazilian. Lee takes this fight a full six months off a loss to Tony Ferguson (the last man to defeat Barboza prior to December). My belief is that he’s had time to gather himself off that loss and has prepared and improved according coming into this challenge. Saturday’s victor is sure to be considered a top challenger to Nurmagomedov so this fight is highly relevant in the Lightweight Division.

I released Lee -120 here on PSW a few weeks ago, so readers who moved then hold advantage. To those reading Wednesday, Lee -140 to -150 is the limit.

As Mentioned above this fight is now PASS

Santos -170 vs. Branch +150

Santos is a straight out striking assassin but he’s quite one dimensional as he has little wrestling/grappling skill other than the freakish strength he possesses to buck while down to escape the floor. Branch brings enough wrestling skill that If…If he can get inside Santos charging attempts to knock his head off can clasp onto the slugger and take him down to control this fight in one ugly slog on the sod. Branch is live tonight….

Branch +150

Chagas -120 vs. Bahadurzada +110

 released Chagas -110 on @VSiN earlier this week with Matt Youmans on the Edge. He’s younger faster, more explosive and if he has addressed his conditioning (he tends to overextend early) then he may surely hold advantage. Siylar has battled injury and is dropping from a career starting 205 lbs. to 170lbs. for this fight in his zeal to be competitive. Speed kills.

Chagas -110

It's a short card today Enthusiasts. I had a multi-unit position on Lee. Circumstances MUST be exactly right for me to follow through on any position and this weight miss equates to roughly a 12% reduction in win results in the UFC. It’s important to obtain advantage and distance oneself from disadvantage.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

4-20-18 11:10am EST

Lee missed weight at last miute by 2lbs. the time and distracxtion are enough for me to take this bet down by adding Barboza +140 (current pricing) but hurry as this price will be gone very soon....

Chagas -110

Lee -120

Release via Point Spread Weekly 3-14-18

Chagas -110
Loss
Result: -100
Branch +150
Won
Result: +150


UFC FN Gaethje vs. Poirier Desert D'Arce - 4/14/2018
W: 1 L: 3
Win: 25%
Result: -140

Dustin Poirier -140 vs. Justin Gaethje +120 (Lightweight Division)

Saturday’s UFC fight night 128 takes place in the desert climate of Glendale, AZ. There is no title fight scheduled but the main event features a couple of top ten Lightweight’s that bring varying skillsets into this fight. The late great Angelo Dundee would chime, “styles make fights” and Saturday’s victor featuring Poirier’s technical striking and movement competing against Gaethje’s aggressive, ill-intentioned relentlessness will help clarify who will move closer to a potential title shot against last week’s newly crowned Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov….as most paradoxical ‘career opportunity’ to say the least.

For Poirier movement and conditioning rule as he must not allow himself to get into any dogged exchanges with the taller, larger, stronger Gaethje who will want to make this a barroom brawl. Poirier’s ability to slip power shots, employ movement and counterpunch the incoming bull are the key to his winning this fight for he is a slick effective defensive fighter and understands Gaethje is coming to headhunt.

Gaethje, on the other hand must find a way to punish Poirier early and often to test his suspect chin and wear away at his will. Gaethje will rush Poirier and try to maul him against the cage and maintain inside position to unleash his flurries. Past fights have shown that the plan to pulverize Poirier is to back him up, bully him, crowd him and chip that chin which is exactly what Gaethje wants to do in front of his home state (Gaethje grew up and wrestled in Stafford, AZ.).

Poirier is the more technically sound combatant and will need to accrue striking volume to outpoint the slugger for he’ll not be able to finish the larger stronger opponent. Gaethje will employ dogged determination and unrelenting forward pressure to crowd the counterpuncher against the fence and piece him up with punches, elbows, kicks and knees.

Gaethje +120

Courtney Casey -150 vs. Michelle Waterson +140

This is a woman’s Strawweight battle where seventh ranked Michelle ‘the Karate hottie’ Waterson faces tenth ranked Courtney Casey. Waterson is recognized for her attractive looks besides being a complete fighter, but she struggles with the top women in the division. Casey has no sexy nick name but what she will have is height, size and a five-inch reach advantage in what looks to be a fight that will be a stand-up affair. Casey enters this fight well less recognized but with far more firepower. Casey will earn a victory in this fight.

Casey -115

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Reis vs. Moraga (Flyweight)

Sixth ranked Reis, a Brazilian black belt off a couple of losses (to Champion Demetrius Johnson and second ranked Henri Cejudo) must have this fight take place on the mat if he is to get his hand raised. Moraga, an ex-college wrestler must keep this fight upright and not allow Reis to drag him down. Rather, Moraga needs to make this a boxing/striking affair where he’ll hold absolute advantage for on the feet, Reis will be outmatched, and Moraga more effective. Tenth ranked Moraga who’ll hold height and length advantages is fighting off a couple of upset wins, so he enters with confidence and competes in front of his home town. I look for a tremendous effort from Moraga, a fighter many may have written off.  After this fight, Moraga should reestablish himself as a title contender in the Flyweight division.

Moraga +125

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Burns -590 vs. Moret +500

Burns looks the part but is an extremely one-dimensional fighter even though he is top notch world class at his specialty, BJJ. He must get Moret to the mat for the maul here. Moret (an MMALab fighter) has no skills considered ‘world class’ but he is tough as nails, very well-rounded in fight capacity, taller and a bit longer and has been yearning for this opportunity for months. Burns struggled to make weight and Moret looked like a razor blade at weigh-ins. Moret is the more versed fighter and as mangy a mutt as there is on the card. Moret is live….

Moret +500 (half)

 

 

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmrush/eddie-alvarez-breaks-down-the-upcoming-gaethje-vs-poirier-matchup

  

 

 

Gaethje +120
Loss
Result: -100
Casey -115
Loss
Result: -115
Moraga +125
Won
Result: +125
Moret +500 half
Loss
Result: -50


UFC 223 Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta: Big Apple grapple - 4/7/2018
W: 1 L: 1
Win: 50%
Result: 0

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most unusual UFC 223. Despite the recent uncertainty in Brooklyn there will be a fight slate set to entertain tonight even though some of the fights have been recently changed, cancelled and/or removed. Like in game wagering my judgement is that when providing the makers less time to react and price a performance provided advantage as opposed to allowing them weeks to allow the market to tighten the price. Here’s the value we have uncovered for today’s UFC 223.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Favorites in the UFC in 2018 are 62-34-5 for 61.3% and while I focus often on uncovering value on underdogs the more important consideration is ‘gaming value’. I work tirelessly to obtain value in any position which Segway’s me to UFC 223 and the Co-main event where there is abundant betting value.

Unfortunately for UFC 223 there has been upheaval and cancellations based on forces beyond any form of logic. That mentioned, it is my job to handicap fights not preside over punk Irishmen and spoiled Champion’s, so the focus is and always will continue to be uncovering value in adults fighting in the Octagon. Here are the selections for UFC 223.

Nurmagomedov –750 vs. Iaquinta +550 (Lightweight Championship)

Late replacements and short notice may have affected other fighters focusing on the UFC title but Khabib Nurmagomedov has confronted the events of the week with a calm demure approach worthy of only a superhuman fighting machine awaiting an opportunity to realize a life-long dream. Insert King Kong, Godzilla or Man Mountain Dean in the cage tonight with Nurmagomedov and just like in his previous fights he’ll quickly find a way to disassemble the opponent and dominate. Tonight, Al Iaquinta is the unfortunate victim.

Pass.

Jedrzejczyk -110 vs. Namajunas +100 (Woman’s Strawweight Championship)

This is a rematch of a November 2017 fight in New York City where Joana Jedrzeczyk opened -450 and closed just prior to the opening bell -710. For this battle in Brooklyn she opened -210 (a price I feel is an accurate reflection of this fight) and is currently -115. This is an overlay and there’s value on Joanna Champion for reasons beside the just the price.

Rose Namajunas is a fearless, well-rounded fighter who upset one of the most dominant women’s Champion’s in the UFC when she knocked out Joanna in November. Namajunas is almost as tall as Joanna, is five years younger and arguably has a more well-rounded skill set though she is nowhere near as capable a striker as Joanna (despite what transpired in the first fight). In the November title fight Joanna got ‘Rousey’ed’ if you will. She went from a humble, efficient, dedicated, focused fighting machine and morphed to one of the Kardashians in just three or four title defenses. Joanna, a small-town gal from outback Poland got quite comfortable wearing new Gucci, sporting designer jeans and taking private jets to conduct interviews while swilling on mimosa’s. What she was not doing was living in the gym and taking care of fight business which is what earned her the Championship.

Meteoric fame, overnight riches and instant notoriety are cancer for fighters and Joanna ate the cake like a fat kid at a birthday party leading up to that night in November. This was evident when she weighed in for the fight and especially so on fight night when she could barely compete past a minute into the first round.

I’m approaching the handicapping of this fight from a more psychological point of view.  Gauging each fighter’s perspective and mindset is entering this second fight is mandatory.

For Namajunas the spot is arduous. She’s not as dangerous a striker as Joanna and while perhaps more capable on the ground she’ll have trouble gaining inside position against a properly conditioned, focused, prepared Joanna. Namajunas must overcome Joanna’s 81% take down defense to keep from having to compete with her on the feet where she’ll be outmatched by a constant barrage of precision striking.

 Joanna meanwhile has defeated everyone she has faced (except for Rose) and is quite confident she can win this fight for she too is aware of the many distractions that caused her to lose focus on the title. She’s been training with the fervor and dedication that eluded her in preparation for their November fight as well she’s learned a most valuable lesson. Joanna is not only a top athlete in the UFC but dominant within her division. On Saturday night she’s steps into the Octagon a worthy -200 chalk (as I handicap this fight). It’s my opinion that it will be some time if any time before we may capture Joanna at a price this modest.

Saturday night we’ll see a focused determined ex-Champion and I believe she’ll add Rose Namajunas to list of ladies in the women’s Strawweight Division that have been jolted by Jedrzejczyk.

Jedrzejczyk -110

Kattar -110 vs. Moicano +100

We released this fight earlier this week Moicano +120. In this fight Moicano must deal with the aggressive boxing/striking base Kattar employs. Kattar will have a power advantage but only provided he can keep this standing. Moicano must be successful in gaining inside position and clasping onto the striker thus usurping some starch from Kattar’s striking.  If he can accomplish this, he may well be able to piece Kattar up anywhere this fight goes as we get into the second round and past. Moicano has faced a higher level of competition and is more complete as a fighter in my judgement. Kattar gains his PhD. In MMA tonight.

Moicano +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Joanna -110
Loss
Result: -120
Moicano +120
Won
Result: +120


“Price is what you pay, Value is what you get”

Mr.Warren Buffet

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