UFC FN 133 Dos Santos vs. Ivanov: Brawls on the Bench - 7/14/2018
W: 3 L: 1
Win: 75%
Result: +210

 

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 133 from Boise, Idaho. Tonight’s fight card is steeped with interesting matchups and value. I see a some potentially perilous positions but also have handicapped a couple of angles on fighters that arrive tonight poised to perform at their peak. I use every resource available to produce bottom line because after all, this is business.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time).

(Originally published 7-11-18 Point Spread Weekly VSIN)

Boise, Idaho hosts UFC Fight Night 133 this Saturday where ex-Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos (-175 favorite) takes on a debuting Heavyweight from Bulgaria Blagoy Ivanov (+155 underdog).

Dos Santos has had a storied UFC career for he has compiled a 16-4 record since his arrival to the UFC in 2008 against the most talented heavyweights of the times. However, in his last seven fights he’s realized a 3-4 record which is an indicator of a fighter that may be past his prime and on the downslope of his career (Dos Santos was beaten via stoppage in each of those four losses). Dos Santos is fighting Saturday for the first time since his defeat to Stipe Miocic in May of last year where he was iced in the first round. Also important is that Dos Santos was then pulled from a fight in September of last year for testing positive to performance enhancing substances against Francis Ngannou by USADA*. In April of this year he was re-instated and cleared to fight. It’s quite possible Dos Santos, without the contribution of foreign substances will look even more pedestrian than he has in his last couple of losses. Dos Santo’s main issue is that his once granite jaw now more resembles porcelain and he’s going to step into the octagon Saturday with a Bulgarian bomber who is well versed in mixed martial arts.

Blagoy Ivanov is Dos Santos’ opponent Saturday. He’s a relatively unknown fighter except to many of us fight nerds. He gained unwanted notoriety in 2012on his way to the UFC when he was knifed in a bar fight, fought for his life and after taking a couple years off to recover from near death ramifications has earned his way into this opportunity. Clearly the kid is determined, focused and tough as John Wayne’s saddle.

The 31-year-old Bulgarian fighter first gained FIGHT ever acclaim by defeating Fedor Emelianenko in the semifinals of the 2008 World Sambo Championships. In the decade since, he’s evolved into one of the top young heavyweight talents in a very thin heavyweight talent pool. Ivanov, an international master of Combat Sambo and a black belt in Judo will be the younger man by three years though I consider Dos Santos at this point in his career to display characteristics of a fighter much older than his thirty-four years.

Ivanov will be the shorter man with well less reach and experience however I believe he’ll be able to overcome those potential disadvantages by being the fresher, faster more explosive fighter Saturday night. Ivanov who is as complete a fighter as is Dos Santos moves extremely well for a two-hundred-and-fifty-pound athlete and he’s able to fire for a full three rounds.  It’s my belief from watching his film that the longer this fight goes the stronger Ivanov will become and he’ll eventually be able to dictate the pace and begin to back Dos Santos up. Once that happens this fight becomes a hunt.

This match-up opened as a pick-em but was immediately moved to current pricing which is reflective of the Dos Santos name (and lack of knowledge of Ivanov) but not of each fighter’s ability in my opinion. Ivanov, who looks more like a plumber than a fighter is getting a great opportunity to enter the UFC with a splash by putting Dos Santo’s name on his resume.

In the meantime, older heavyweights out there best believe that in a sport as competitive as MMA, and in an organization concerned about drawing power and capital intake that the day will come that they too will be managed as meat and fed to the next up and comer.

Ivanov +155

7-14-2018 update

Northcutt -125 vs. Ottow +115

Ottow is going to try to muscle, maul and bully Northcutt who has shown in past fights that he can be crowded, mauled, taken to the floor and held there. Northcutt’s also moving up to Welterweight (170lb.) where he’s experienced poor results. Yet Northcutt’s only twenty-two years old, he’s athletic, he’s shown a propensity to work on improvement and I base that on the fact that he’s with Faber and crew at Alpha Male where its certain that they’ve been addressing Northcutt’s take down defense and more importantly his wrestling. I also feel at his age that he’s going to be well more powerful and dangerous at this weight if he can utilize his movement and keep Ottow on the outside where he can utilize his kicking game to set up his whole striking arsenal. I also feel the UFC has interest in Sage surging up the rankings to contribute to future ratings, so my belief is that this is a favorable matchup for the kid based on Ottow’s less athletic, deliberate, plodding and somewhat predictable style.

Northcutt -125

Brown -130 vs. Price +110

This fight comes down to my preference for Price’s level of competition faced and his more complete fight arsenal. Though Price can be somewhat wild and unpredictable at times he is tough and comes prepared to fight all night so cardio is never an issue. Brown’s past opponents pall in comparison to Price’s but his precision striking and size will test Price as Price is used to being the taller man in many of his bouts. Brown’s complete lack of wrestling/grappling ability is going to be a target for Price and I believe it’s his path to our profitability.

Price +110

Mendes -115 vs. Jury -105

Mendes opened -230 for this fight and that line’s dropped like a hammer in a lake since its release. I’d agree that -230 may be too stringent a chalk price for a fighter who’s been off for some time serving suspension and has lost three of his last four fights but one look at his level of competition shows that he’s competed with the absolute best of the weight class for years.  

In my view people presume Mendes to be weak in the beak based on his eradication by Edgar so the unknown regarding this and his time off have people thinking that a well-rounded jack of all yet master of none who basically relies on his takedown for offense is going to maul and manage Mendes?

Jury shows up the younger, longer, taller fighter here but his resume is shoddy and his style feeds right into Mendes strengths in my opinion. While Mendes as a firm favorite is not my preference Mendes at current pricing (and I’ll advise waiting on this and determine if this line may yet compress another dime or so from the parlay playing pukes on Jury) is a worthy gamble because yes the time away could have hurt him but in my view time off for a mature wrestling-based fighter feeds the fury and tonight Mendes’ fury is going to be direct at Miles Jury.

Mendes now -115 (or better)

 

.

 

 

Mendes -115
Won
Result: +100
Northcutt -125
Won
Result: +100
Ivanov +156
Loss
Result: -100
Price +110
Won
Result: +110


UFC 226 Miocic vs. Cormier: Las Vegas Golden Fights - 7/7/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: -60

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 226. As is the custom we’ve lost the Co-main event of Holloway and Ortega which is sad for so many reasons, yet I applaud Holloway, his handlers and the UFC for cancelling this fight and allowing the athlete to recover and return. I’d tell you it will be 2019 before Holloway hits the Octagon next.

Since the beginning of the year I’ve been submitting my main event and other breakdowns to the fine people at VSiN for publication. The deadline for fights occurring on Saturday’s is Tuesday AM which is very early for this handicapper to make solid releases. That said, deadlines are deadlines and the practice has in my judgement sharpened my handicapping skill.

I’m quite aware that 2018 UFC profitability is unacceptable to date, but the seasons are long and (for whatever reason) it seems to take me until this huge UFC weekend to get my fight groove going. Refining my releases will also be a focus while I work my way back to profitability and I’d warn those that while this year has started slowly I can’t expect chalk to continue its torrid 70% performance rate. After last night’s card Favorites are running a smooth 152-65-10.

So, UFC 226 is here, my main event breakdown from Point Spread Weekly is below. I’ll spare everyone the Holloway/Ortega column unless requested.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

(below originally published 7-4-18 in VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly)

UFC 226 occurs in Las Vegas this week for the UFC’s annual exposition. The stacked card treats us to two Championship fights Saturday night. The evening’s feature bout tabbed as ‘the Super fight’ is a matchup pitting current UFC Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic against current Light-Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier for Miocic’s Heavyweight title. The co-main event is also a title fight at the Featherweight division and will feature two modern MMA era assassins facing off in Champion Max Holloway and undefeated challenger Brian Ortega.

Stipe Miocic – 240 (Champion) vs. Daniel Cormier +220 Heavyweight Championship (under 265lbs.)

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier entered the UFC in 2013 as a heavyweight but chose to drop to light-heavyweight because his training partner and good friend Cain Velasquez not only competed at the heavyweight division but held its title on two different occasions. Cormier who many consider undersized for heavyweight, fights well larger than his size for he possesses incredible strength, has absolute World Class wrestling ability and exhibits unrelenting forward pressure. Cormier’s advantages lie in his dynamic wrestling ability, his strong will, his ability to smother opponents and not allow them room to breathe (let along strike) and his vast fight experience.

Cormier defeated heavyweights earlier in his career but let’s not forget that he was thirty-four then and now approaches forty. In the five years since he’s competed at heavyweight he’s faced the absolute best of the Light-heavyweight division and smashed every challenger save for two losses to Jon Jones which both were overturned. While Cormier’s resume and history of dominance at light-heavyweight is undisputable, he does face the toughest challenge in his career in Heavyweight Champion Miocic. Cormier approaches his fortieth birthday which is cause for concern as he’s almost five years older than the Champion. As we are aware the five-year age difference favors the younger fighter 65% of the time in fights above 170lbs. As concerning to me is the fact that Cormier seems to be publicly planning career moves past this most arduous confrontation by mentioning other fighters he wants to face prior to retirement. I don’t put it past any intelligent fighter of any age to get caught up in the publicity and limelight of the moment and in my judgement planning a career path past the most important fight in one’s career is most unwise.

Stipe Miocic is the longest reigning UFC Heavyweight in history and this will be his fourth title defense. Miocic owns physical advantages over Cormier besides age, he’s five inches taller than DC and will own an eight-inch reach advantage, for a striking based fighter that is telling. Miocic while not as accomplished a wrestler as Cormier does possess a complete wrestling base. Miocic’s size and take down defense (75% take down defense) will allow him to withstand Cormier’s attempts to work inside and drag this fight to the floor.  Miocic’s advantage is on the feet and in space so where this fight occurs is the critical as DC wants to grind, rub, maul and brawl while Miocic wants to battle at distance and batter the incoming Cormier as he attempts to work his way inside. In my judgement Miocic’s size, length and athleticism will allow him to maintain distance from the charging Cormier.

I struggle to think that at forty years old and now fighting up a weight-class against a true heavyweight Champion that Cormier is going to be able to maintain his cardio level carrying that extra weight (he’s been fighting at 205lbs. is comfortable at 220-230lbs. and will be facing a fighter weighing 245lbs). Cormier’s age, this jump in weight against a larger stronger man and his chin (just one year ago DC was brutally KO’s by a Jones leg kick) coupled with Miocic being a natural heavyweight in his prime all contribute to my believing that this is going to be Stipe Miocic’s night..

This fight opened in February Miocic -170 which was unusually low in my estimation (I did manage an aggressive position there) and the line has steadily risen since. Current pricing is more reflective of true odds on this match-up in my judgement and for that reason this fight is a pass for me. 

Updated 7-7-18

Current pricing: Miocic -200 vs. Cormier +185

Cormier weighed in 246 and has not fought at that weight (or higher) since September of 2011 when he was thirty-three years of age. I believe DC’s weight is an indication that he’s going to completely “sell-out” to get inside on Miocic and try to maul him to the mat and make this a wrestling match. Miocic must be aware of this and fend off DC with take down defense as Cormier tries to force this fight to the floor.

This is the key to this fight as I believe Miocic can control this fight on the feet and pepper DC with strikes all night long especially after a round or two when Cormier begins to wane. Cormier’s size makes me feel less inclined to take this fight Over the three rounds because I just don’t believe a thirty-nine-year-old fighter with his years of wear (yes he also has advantage like experience going for him also) can overtake undefeated Father Time and overtake one of the worthiest heavyweight fighters in UFC history. If Miocic moves under -200 I would consider a release and will do so publicly via twitter if the number becomes attractive enough.

Hooker -120 vs. Burns +110

Angelo Dundee was rich in fight slang and one thing he would always warn, “Never hook with a hooker”. This is the advice I want to give Gilbert Burns in this fight. “Gilbert, grapple with Hooker and by all means don’t get too intoxicated with your recent success in the stand-up and think you can bang with this kid. I believe Burns is the more equip fighter and has been improving his wrestling which he is going to need tonight to get past a long angular one-dimensional striking based fighter in Hooker. Burns must take this to the floor and when he does he’ll own enough advantage to be able to harness Hooker.

Burns +110

Millender -160 vs. Griffin +150

Millender is a tall, long, striking based fighter entering his second fight in the UFC. In his first outing he was matched against a 5’8” Thiago Alves who is as old and slow as I am for crying out loud. Yes, Millender won impressively but to me he looked raw, swung wide and at times had those hands low and his beak protruding. Millender has what it takes to be a talent in the UFC but he is raw. I believe the past inconsistency of Griffin can be used to his favor here for he looked impressive painting Perry’s fence last out and I feel he is not getting the respect for that improvement. Griffin has the speed and ability to get inside of Millender, touch him up and expose the younger, less refined, more one-dimensional fighter.

Griffin +150

Felder -150 vs. Perry +140

I’ve been blabbing about this fight all week. A true mixed martial artist in Paul Felder on short notice moves up to 170lbs. to fight a raw, wild, bar room brawler who is trying to refine his game in Mike Perry. In past fights I have faded Perry because of his premium pricing (chalky) and his lack of any real MMA ability other than brute power, unrelenting pressure and an ability to take dynamic damage. BUT….that was against large, powerful top contenders in the Welterweight Division. Perry matches up well to a fighter in Felder that wants some distance and does not take well to being bullied and backed up. Perry rather than heavy chalk finally comes as a mangy mutt in this fight and I believe it is an advantageous position for him. He’s spent time at Jax/Wink (which Felder also has) and while you cannot take the stripes off a Zebra in one camp,  I do believe that Perry wants/needs to improve to remain relevant in the UFC and in this fight he is well matched. Flyer.

Perry +140

Ngannou -340 vs. Lewis +310

Important to note is that Ngannou trained for a spell at the UFC performance institute prior to his Championship fight with Stipe Miocic in January then returned to train there prior to this fight. After watching the weigh-ins, my feel is that he’s quite serious about his career based on the lean  body he showed up with when he weighed in at 253lbs. (ten pounds LIGHTER than his fight with Miocic in January). I originally wanted to side with Lewis in this spot based on Ngannou being raw and in need of fight improvement and conditioning but after seeing Ngannou and realizing that Lewis has had past struggles with his back and the ability to absorb body shots I must reconsider. The only position on this fight I’d entertain is Francis Ngannou via TKO/KO -140 to -150. I’m interested to see if Ngannou can perform up to the improvement his body has shown (as well what this Performance Institute has provided him) from January to now. I am a believer in the technology and progressive approach of the UFC Performance Institute and believe Ngannou may be leading the charge as it’s body of proof.

 

 

Perry +140
Won
Result: +140
Griffin +150
Loss
Result: -100
Burns +110
Loss
Result: -100


UFC FN 132 Cerrone vs. Edwards: Suplex in Singapore - 6/23/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: -80

Welcome to UFC Singapore Cerrone vs. Edwards. Below please find my write up for both main events that were published earlier this week on 'Point Spread Weekly', VSiN's subscription based newsletter which if i don't say so myself is an insightful weekly publication dedicated to those of us in the Profitable Sports Gaming business. Here's a few underdogs we feel may just rise up along with a wager on the Co-main event.

-Let's Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

The UFC goes back overseas to Singapore this week for an early Saturday morning fight card (main card begins at 5am PST).  These regional cards always take on a local flavor and with this being from Asia at an unusual hour with relatively unknown fighters; I’ll keep the breakdowns today brief and concise.

 

Leon Edwards -200 vs. Cowboy Cerrone +170 (170lbs.) Welterweight Main Event

(originally published 6-20-18)

Everything but the price favors Leon Edwards here. He’s the larger, younger, faster striking based fighter from England who trains at AKA in California. Edwards has rolled off six victories in a row after being dominated by Kamara Usman which by the way is nothing to be ashamed of. Edwards is kickboxing based and is precise and judicious in his punching. He does offer power but his best striking attribute is comes from his stamina and durability in that as the fight wears on his skills become more apparent and I expect this to be exemplified this Saturday against a thirty-five year old warrior who is proud but whose skills have dulled.

Edwards should allow Cerrone to work early and weather the early Cerrone storm in order to execute the most efficient way to take the Cowboy out. He’ll dictate this fight into the second or third round where the Cowboy’s age and worn tread will begin to show. Cerrone has all the knowledge, guile, experience and savvy to get this done but in my estimation he is nothing more than a stepping stone for these young fighters to utilize as they propel themselves up the Welterweight rankings. Edwards opened -130 and has been bet up appropriately to -200.

Pass

Pedro -120 vs. St. Preux +100 Light-Heavyweight (205lbs.)

This is a fight between a young man who grew up in a mixed martial arts family who’s still developing as a fighter and an ex-college football player who is learning how to become a mixed martial artist but has age and experience as his advantage. St. Preux, the football player turned MMA fighter has ability, athleticism, desire and quickness but he trains in a small local Knoxville, TN. gym and is basically self-taught (brown belt BJJ). While athletic I do question his Octagon IQ as well his consistency

Pedro, an Australian fighter is a decorated Black Belt in Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Kempo and a brown belt in BJJ. He’s more diverse a fighter than St. Preux in the clinch and on the floor, is eight years the younger man and even though St. Preux does have some wrestling ability it will be Pedro that must take this fight down in order to get his hand raised. Pedro is stepping up in class of athlete in this fight but this is a measured risk and one that in his own back yard (almost) he is sure to offer his best. Pedro opened up -120 and was bet up immediately. Recent action has compressed the line back down to current Pedro -120 where we feel there is value.

Pedro -120

Updated 6-22-18

Pedro is now -145 and I’ll leave any wager up to you. For me Pedro at current is as high as I would go...that said, I did release Pedro -160 via Twitter some weeks ago. If I liked him enough then to release at -160 then anything lower is gravy. For purposes of my results page Pedro will be recorded as -160. 

Periera -165 vs. Yan +145

We recommended this fight earlier this week with Gabriel Morency and Cam Stewart on the Fantasy Sports Network. Yan at that time was +180. At current pricing she’s still a play as she’ll be the larger, taller, longer fighter in there tonight. Live dog.

Yan +145

Young -165 vs. Dy +145

Couple of chinny aggressive fighters set to square off in this one. Young may have a little length and some power and Dy is maybe the tighter striker. Dog or pass

Dy +145

Clark -145 vs. Eye +135

I believe Clark is the mentally tougher more focused fighter at this stage of her career and that this is a poor spot for Jessica Eye.

 

Pedro -160
Loss
Result: -160
Yan +180
Won
Result: +180
Dy +145
Loss
Result: -100


UFC 225 Whittaker vs. Romero II: Windy City Whizzer - 6/9/2018
W: 0 L: 3
Win: %
Result: -300

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 225 from Chicago, Ill. As usual my main event breakdown published this past Wednesday on VSiN’s Point Spread weekly is below for your review. I’ll update that column with comments about that main event and angles for other fights on this solid slate.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Originally published 6-6-18 Point Spread Weekly

Saturday’s UFC 225 comes to us from the Windy City Chicago, Illinois. After a few weeks of elimination fights, we’ll witness a five round Championship fight for the Middleweight title which is a rematch between current Champion Robert Whittaker and number one ranked challenger, Cuban Yoel Romero. Let’s break it down.

Robert Whittacker -235 vs. Yoel Romero +195 Middleweight (185lb) title fight

Last July 8th these two tussled for the Interim Middleweight title. The pricing on that fight at closing was Romero -145 vs. Whittaker +135. In a closely contested fight Whittaker won via decision but the story was how. He lost the first two rounds then persevered and outworked the deliberate Cuban in rounds three to five displaying superior conditioning, quickness and speed.

An important factor in that fight was that Whittaker sustained a knee injury caused by Romero in the early stages of round one in that fight. This injury and a staff-infection (now fully healed) were the reasons he’s been on the shelf for the last year. As mentioned, in the late rounds of that first fight Whittaker was the quicker, faster, stronger athlete and he was doing it with an injured medial left knee.

Whittaker’s resume is complete as he’s defeated every form of specialized MMA fighter from strikers to BJJ artists to wrestlers and in each confrontation he’s excelled. The Australian arrives to this fight with the more diverse skillset in that he specializes in Karate, Hapkido, Boxing, Wrestling and BJJ. Whittaker, at twenty-seven is in his prime fighting years as well he’ll hold a fourteen-year age advantage over Romero. It’s legit to question what affect the time off may have had on Whittaker by means of rust but in my judgement, young improving fighters when provided a year off can often benefit both physically and mentally. I believe this will be the case with Whittaker

Yoel Romero, the challenger is a physical freak of nature as he’s a muscularly sculpted, world-class wrestling-based fighter whose ferocity and athletic explosiveness can be dominating early but his aggressive fighting style tends to usurp him of his energy once the fight gets into the later rounds (as displayed in their first fight). Wrestling, grappling, and grinding for take downs against an agile, strong, athletic opponent can be extremely taxing and that’s exactly how Romero tired. At forty-one I see little way Romero is able to improve upon his cardio or any other aspect of his MMA arsenal. We know what he brings as does Whittaker.

Romero’s is most dangerous in this spot because he understands that this is arguably his last shot to hold a UFC title. In this fight I believe (and I think his people believe) that his best chance at winning is a risky one in that he’ll need to press Whittaker immediately, swarm him and to make this a wild swinging brawl under any circumstance. Pressing Whittaker to negate his punching power and defend those vicious front legs kicks is mandatory as Romero must be active if he is going to take the title. It was movement, jabs and leg kicks that allowed Whittaker to maintain distance in their first fight, so Romero must change it up and negate Whittaker’s space if he is to have any chance to gain the title.

These two know one another well but the only fighter capable of adding fight dimension to their repertoire since their last meeting is Whittaker. Whittaker possesses the skill, strength, explosiveness conditioning and athleticism to control the Romero increasingly as this fight wears on provided he’s diligent and patient in the early minutes and manages this fight into the later rounds. I believe Whittaker eventually overwhelms Romero as youth, speed, conditioning and explosiveness overtakes a proud but aged warrior.  

At current pricing of Whittaker -235, I find it difficult to actually lay a wager on Whittaker. He opened -150 so I’ve missed any value on the Aussie. My angle for this fight will be to shop the props as currently Whittaker ‘insider the distance’ (ITD) is +135. That will be my approach to this main event.

Saturday 6-9-18 update

So today all understand that Romero missed weight at this his second chance at the title. Romero is simply too large a man to compete at the weight class yet he counts on being able to cut profuse pounds like he was a man of Whittaker’s age which was a big error in judgement. Romero spent an extra two hours cutting .08lb. before  officially missing weight on his second and last attempt. TI know how I regard this distraction as well the hours of advantage Whittaker (one of the first to step on the scale at 8:49CST) had to re-hydrate and focus on the fight. You reader may interpret the issue as you will. Besides the ITD wager mentioned above I’ll add another wager using Whittaker (see below).

Benavidez -200 vs. Pettis +180

Joe B has been on the shelf so the question for him is whether he is rested or rusty. In my judgement, wrestlers rarely display rust for they do nothing but practice. Grinding daily at wrestling requires more grittiness and fortitude thatn anything else while striking based fighters are heavily reliant on timing, precision and countering which take time to refine in the heat of battle. Joe B at thirty-four is the older fighter but he’s the wresting-based fighter who’s been in with and competed with the best the division has to offer. He won’t be rusty rather he’ll be unrelenting

His opponent Sergio Pettis will be younger, faster and want to keep this fight on the feet if he has any chance to compete with Benavidez. Pettis has little power and poses little threat to Joe on the feet other than the fact that Joe can’t allow Pettis to outpoint him with his pitter patter punching. Once on the floor and I absolutely believe they’ll get to the floor, this fight will be dominated by Benavidez. I expect a snoozer here as Joe Rubs the Pettis out of Sergio.

Whittaker -235/Benavidez -200

2 team parlay 1 unit +115

Blaydes -190 vs. Overeem +180

I’ve been as profitable on Blaydes as any fighter recently we as I’ve ridden him through his loss to Ngannou forward to this point in his career. I believe this young wrestling-based fighter on the improve is close to becoming a true threat for the title in the Heavyweight division. But in this fight he must be very cautious as in many ways he’s made for his opponent Alistair Overheem.

Blaydes striking, though improving is nowhere near as effective as Overeem’s as well he’s giving up vast amounts of experience and savvy to the Dutch striker. Blaydes advantages lie in his ability to get the ‘Reem to the floor and rub him out for wrestling is the preferred method of effectively controlling the striker. Wrestling will allow Blaydes his chance to eliminate Overeem’s stand-up effectiveness and enhance his ability to get to that porcelain chin by first gaining top control then utilizing vicious ground and pound to turn out Overeem’s lights.

Now Overeem understands completely the plan of his opponent and is aware that if he is to overcome this young lion he must keep this fight ion the feet and at distance. Overeem must pepper the younger fighter from the outside and use movement to keep the wrestling from clinging to him. He must make it difficult for Blaydes to get inside and into the clasp. This tactic (which is easier voiced than executed) can often create impatience for the wrestler which is where the dangerous part comes in…. for if Blaydes finds it necessary to rush in to attempt a double or single leg take down attempt he could be recipient of lethal leg kicks and devastating knees. Blaydes must be careful not to play right into the savvy fighters snare so believe me when I say that where this fight takes place will be telling.

A stand-up fight with distance control and precision striking fight will favor Overeem and an ugly maul on the mat is Blaydes path to victory. ‘Styles make fights’ as my hero Angelo Dundee would always say and this fight is sure to be determined by how and where it is fought.

Overeem +170

 

Overeem +180
Loss
Result: -100
Joe B-200/Whittaker-235 2t +115
Loss
Result: -100
Whittaker ITD +135
Loss
Result: -100


UFC FN 131 Rivera vs.Moraes Utica! Utica! - 6/1/2018
W: 0 L: 3
Win: %
Result: -250

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 131 from Utica, New York. As is the case in 2018 I’ll post my main event breakdown from VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly which is published each Wednesday below. If you are serious about gaining advantage in your pursuit of Profitable Sports Gaming then this publication is a must. It’s also quite a value as it is priced quite moderately. I know for me, gaining insight and varying opinions on sporting events can only make me more complete as the learning never stops in any business lest one desires to be left on the wayside.

I’ll scrutinize tonight’s card for due diligence purposes as I want to gather info on these fighters as opposed to invest in these match-ups. I do like the main event and will also include another couple of positions below the breakdown of the main event for your consideration.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Jimmy Rivera -105 vs. Marlon Moraes -105 Bantamweight (135lb.) main event

(originally published 5-29-18 Point Spread Weekly)

The UFC returns to the US after several weeks out of the country for fight night 131 in Utica, NY this Friday beginning at 3:30pm PST. Normally these fight cards take place on Saturdays but dodging the NBA and NHL playoffs is important for the UFC in that many of those fans cross over to the UFC so this week we fight on Friday.

The main event is again a contrast in styles as fourth ranked New Yorker Jimmy Rivera faces off against fifth ranked Brazilian Marlon Moraes in a bantamweight bout that is sure to thrill.

In Moraes’ first UFC fight he debuted against an absolute monster in Rafael Assuncao and though he was favored he lost in a split decision but in the process displayed to UFC fight aficionado’s that he surely deserves his current ranking.

Moraes, a former WSOF Bantamweight Champion decided to step up his game when he jumped into the UFC to test his mettle and this first set back seemed to only further drive him. Since that debut, his results have impressed and jettisoned him up the UFC rankings. He earned a split decision win over John Dodson and a dynamic knock out of Aljo Sterling in his last two fights. Both are top contenders in the division which bodes well for Moraes potential.

Moraes is very well-rounded in that he holds BOTH a black belt in BJJ and one in Muay Thai (a striking based mixed martial arts specialty) making Moraes lethal on the mat and on the feet. At thirty, Moraes has quickness, power and a complete offensive attack. In his three UFC fights he’s had to address and withstand Assuncao’s power, Dodson’s speed and Sterling’s athleticism. Moraes is an impressive fighter who is travelling to New York to face Rivera in his back yard.

Across the Octagon from Moraes Friday night will be one of the top contenders in the division in Rivera who offers an extraordinary fight resume’ entering this bout. Rivera is a capable wrestling-based fighter who can effectively strike as his third degree black belt in Kyokushin Karate will attest (as well he previous opponents). This wrestling/striking combination qualifies Rivera to be considered a world class MMA opponent in that he is well versed to dominate wherever this fight may take place. He owns victories against the who’s who of this division and since his arrival to the UFC he’s undefeated in five fights. Included in those five victories are wins against Brazilians Pedro Munhoz and Iuri Alcantara who combined have skills similar to Moraes who Rivera will contend with Friday, only in one man not two.

I’ve talked here in PSW that kryptonite to the BJJ fighter is the world class wrestling based fighter that can effectively strike and take strikes. Welcome local New York fighter Jimmy Rivera to the list of complete fighters that qualify for this category.

Rivera has the wrestling acumen to thwart Moraes attempts to get him to the floor. He has the drive to force his opponent to the mat, gain and hold top control and drop damage via the ground and pound and he can compete at distance in a striking affair.

Moraes steps into the Octagon Friday well more equip to strike than most BJJ specialists yet it’s Rivera that sports the more refined and complete striking and ground arsenal. This fight should be very competitive early, but these wrestlers have a ‘never quit grinding’ style that makes them so very hard to deal with once the fight gets into the second round and past. For this reason I believe there is abundant value on Rivera at -115.

This fight opened Rivera -190 to Moraes +150 much to my dismay as Rivera was surely a target as a small favorite but the ‘Makers seemed (in my judgement) to get it correct. However, since opening this line has dropped like a hammer in a lake to Moraes side which presents a fine value opportunity with Rivera.

We’ll take the wrestling based local fighter to get his hand raised Friday night.

Enjoy the fights.

Rivera -105

(updated 6-1-18 9am EST)

Torres -150 vs. Brooks +140

This is the debut for Torres who’s a talented striking based fighter who’s tough as a two dollar steak but relatively incomplete in the wrestling/grappling department. Brooks meanwhile is a dynamic wrestling based fighter who in past fights has displayed a sizable hole in his offensive attack, the need to improve his striking. Brooks has UFC experience and the knowledge that he absolutely needs to round out his fight arsenal with improved striking ability and I trust they have been working on that in camp. Torres has yet to play big league ball (UFC) and though he comes into this fight with plenty of hype and recognition I feel that it’s the wrestling based fighter who has advantage here. Brooks knows he’s been set up to be the patsy for Torres but I don’t feel he’ll cooperate. Torres gains his PhD. in MMA tonight by being ground down on the mat.

Brooks +140

Harris -260 vs. Spitz +240

Walt Harris enters this match-up minus 250 eh? Well, he’s strong, has striking power and has an experience edge. Spitz on the other hand is a former Wazzou football player who looked ordinary against an ordinary fighter in Mark Godbeer in his UFC debut but showed marked improvement against Anthony Hamilton in his last fight when he iced the journeyman via TKO in round one. While Harris is a step up, I feel Spitz with a 6 year age advantage, a five inch reach advantage and a fighter I believe is still improving offers value as his size, movement, strength and natural athletic should ability allow him to control distance standing then if needed be able to take this fight to the floor. Spitz with a win will be considered a rising talent in a paper thin heavyweight division and I give him a realistic shot of beating Harris. Here’s hoping Spitz is a live spaniel.

Spitz +240 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Rivera -105
Loss
Result: -100
Brooks +140
Loss
Result: -100
Spitz +240 half
Loss
Result: -50


UFC FN Liverpool Thompson vs. Till: The Till is gone - 5/27/2018
W: 2 L: 1
Win: 67%
Result: +118

5-27-18 11:31am EST

Pedersoli -135 half

(Twitter add)

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight night Liverpool, England. Below is my breakdown of the main event between Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Darren ‘the shill’ Till. I demean Till on purpose for fighters that speak shit about being the greatest then miss weight badly only confirm that they are unprofessional and unprepared to be a champion. Till’s missed weight and the organization needed this headliner to make their card in Liverpool profitable. So the result of Till missing is that he sports advantage in a fight in his home town in front of his fans and he enters with unfair advantage. This is a broken system that needs to be fixed as all six fighters who have missed badly in 2018 have gone on to win.

Losing a few percentage points of your pay to own unfair advantage in a fight is clearly an accepted ploy for cheaters and the UFC is burying their head in the sand regarding this tactic that more and more is becoming a plan and a practice.

The UFC MUST address this for it is enables cheaters to benefit at the expense of the professional well-prepared fighter.

It’s impossible to regard the UFC as a legitimate entity when they proclaim that the rules in place do not apply and can be manipulated for something as arbitrary as a ‘family emergency’.

Man does the UFC need some leadership and practice in ethics ….badly.

Here’s my breakdown of the main event published Wednesday May 23 on the VSiN networks publication ‘Point Spread Weekly’.

Published 5-23-18

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night from Liverpool, England. This week they fight on Sunday morning (in the USA) starting at 6:16am PST! The main event will go off about 11:30 am PST so we’ll wake up Sunday morning to left hooks and lattes. Here’s a look at the main event.

Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -115 vs. Darren ‘the Gorilla’ Till -105, 5 rounds Welterweight 170lbs

As discussed previously the UFC is working diligently on exporting their product around the globe and it’s off to England after a couple weeks in South America. As was the case last week, this slate is comprised of relatively obscure fighters and features an abundance of regional European talent. I use a fight card like this for due diligence purposes only obtaining fighter intel for future use in other MMA opportunities.

Sunday’s main event is going to be a competitive affair as we have two dynamic striking based fighters who with an impressive victory should insure themselves a shot at Welterweight champion Tyronn Woodley.

Darren Till is an abrasive, young, brash, English fighter who comes complete with size, power and bad intention. His October demolition of Donald Cerrone (a blown up Lightweight) made Till the talk of the division as the kid is a strong willed, forward pressing, aggressive fighter who talks a big game, at least thus far. Till’s career has spanned a mere five years so he’s still a bit green and in need of refinement. While he is powerful and determined he can also be reckless, wide/wild, and he’s quite one dimensional. He’s a front running fighter meaning he looks like a world beater in the first round but tends to exhaust himself as the fight wears past the first five minutes. Till’s confident in his ability to take the opponent out early and has compromised himself in past fights displaying that lack of experience by taking to frenetic a pace early. I see this as one of his major flaws.

His exuberance to engage in an immediate furious firestorm and his overly aggressive nature tends to completely drain Till later in fights transferring him from a powerful destroyer a lumbering, stationary statue. Those that have made it past the first round with him have all taxed Till and none of those fighters are of Thompson’s championship skill level. In 2015 against Nicholas Dalby Till was clearly ahead after two rounds only to be battered in the third round and settle for a draw. In his fight prior to the Cerrone devastation against a journeyman fighter in Velickovic he again slowed late in round two and earned a close decision. I did mention that his is a scheduled five round fight eh?

Till will be dangerous early in this fight but in my judgement he has many holes in his fight game. He’s a typical English striking based fighter in that he stands erect then as he expends abundant energy he slows substantially and drops his arms. Later in fights he lacks any quickness if he had any to begin with, his defense becomes lax if nonexistent and his erect stature makes him an easy target to hit. Till’s rarely had to fight from the floor nor has he been in the Octagon with an experienced, diverse, precision striking veteran like Thompson.

Stevie Thompson’s on the other hand happens to be a most polished and professional fighter who’s gone five rounds twice recently against current Welterweight Champion Woodley. He’s been in the Octagon with the best fighters of the division and has dominated. He’s beaten names like Hendricks, MacDonald and Masvidal as well took Woodley to a draw before losing their second five round Championship bout.

Thompson is a Kempo/kickboxing/Jujutsu artist who’s versed enough with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to be able to hold great advantage over Till on the mat should he decide to take him there which I believe may be a real possibility.  Anything Thompson can do to force the youthful Brit to expend energy is going to enable Thompson, a veteran of several five round fights to appropriate distance between he and Till then batter the Brit with a barrage of precision striking from arms, legs, knees and elbows once the youth tires and he will tire.

Thompson will employ steady movement to control distance and keep Till on the outside and force him to rush inside to engage the ever-moving fluid striking Thompson. Sunday morning you’ll see Thompson acting as a matador in the first round and Till the bull as he tries to overwhelm Thompson and gore him with early explosive engagement.

Thompson must not engage early with Till and allow the Englishman to start tossing those wide Sunday shots rather he needs to stick to the plan that will be evasiveness early. Thompson will want to batter in oncoming bull with strikes and employ a steady leg kick attack to slow the brash young brawler. Movement, fluid counterstriking and a constant leg attack will force Till to expend energy in an attempt to run down the cagier veteran and try to overwhelm him with his strength.

I view Darren Till as a dangerous prospect but I believe he has been pushed a bit to far too fast in this evolution to become a Champion. I believe this fight goes a long way in determining how long it will take the Englishman to learn the many other aspects of mixed martial arts other than pure youthful power. Till in there Sunday against a more polished precision-based fighter with experience and Championship mettle and for those reasons I view Thompson to be value priced.

Till’s going to earn his PhD. In MMA the hard way Sunday morning when he steps into the Octagon with a man who is more complete than he in every single aspect of MMA fighting save for brute strength and early power.

Thompson -115

Update 5-26-18

If Till’s travesty was not bad enough now the other local Liverpoolian on the card Molly (more meatballs please) McMann missed weight by a couple pounds then after forty more minutes of cutting to take the last pound off stepped back on the scale at the same weight as when she missed. The local fighters are really spitting up all over themselves this morning. Anyway, McMann could barely walk upon her first miss and enters this fight against a fighter well prepared to make a statement, fresh and ready to fire. Robertson is a grappler/wrestler and is prepared to make a splash in the UFC. I believe this fight does hit the floor especially in lieu of the weigh-in results and once on the floor this is all Robertson.

Robertson +150

more tomorrow if some number fall where they need to to make me move. Enjoy the fights

Thompson -120
Loss
Result: -100
Robertson +150
Won
Result: +150
Pedersoli -135
Won
Result: +68


“Price is what you pay, Value is what you get”

Mr.Warren Buffet

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