UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt: SoCal submissions - 8/4/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: 0

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 227 when two UFC Championships are on the line. I’ll present my main event breakdown which originally appeared in VSiN’s Wednesday’s newsletter called ‘Point Spread Weekly” followed by any updates from today with other releases I feel are worthy of investment.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

(originally published 8-1-18)

The UFC follows up an excellent FOX fight card with this weeks’ UFC 227 from Los Angeles, CA. The main event is a rematch for the Bantamweight title which figures to be as competitive and violent a match-up as last weekend’s Poirier vs. Alvarez fight. This rematch pits current Champion TJ Dillashaw in his first title defense against the man whom he whupped to earn it, ex-Champion Cody Garbrandt.

TJ Dillashaw -115 vs. Cody Garbrandt -105 Bantamweight Title (135lbs.)

In November of last year Garbrandt defended his title against Dillashaw in an epic back and forth fight that culminated many months of tension, trash talking and threats between the two combatants who had been opposing coaches on the UFC program The Ultimate Fighter.

The origin for the hatred between these two goes back to when they were all a band of brothers at Team Alpha Male. That is until October of 2015 when Dillashaw left the team to join his striking coach’s new gym in Colorado which began a litany of accusations, insults and innuendo between the two fighters and respective camps that continues to rage to this day. These are two of the top fighters not only in the division but on a pound for pound basis, they're both skilled in their own expertise, possess power and each must stick to their respective game plan in order to overtake their most hated opponent.

Dillashaw is a multi-faceted fighter that can wrestle, grapple and strike with great diversity and power. His greatest asset is his movement which allows him to close distance, cut angles and escape most counter punching combatants. Bantamweights all have the ability to move fluidly as well most base their attack on accumulation as opposed to one punch, lights-out power. Dillashaw is versed with the whole package and will have advantage over Garbrandt in his ability to maintain the space needed to inflict damage then evade.

In the first fight Dillashaw struggled in the first round to earn his way inside. He utilized leg kicks to try to close distance against the stalking Garbrandt and as the round was closing, Dillashaw left himself open and got dropped by a lightning quick, powerful Garbrandt right. Had that first round been another eight seconds longer Garbrandt would have won the fight as Dillashaw was rocked and on rubber legs.

 An important aspect of that fight and perhaps more important this time around was the fact that the Garbrandt camp figured that the plan of success against Dillashaw (used perfectly by Dominic Cruz when we took the title from Dillashaw) was to frustrate him early, neutralize his movement and force Dillashaw away from his plan of attack. Once they could force Dillashaw off plan they figured it to be Garbrandt’s advantage if the fight transformed into an old fashioned 'throw down'.

In the second round Dillashaw began to move less and fire more power shots on Garbrandt in response to being clipped. The irony of Garbrandt’s plan was that it was working into round two for Dillashaw had taken the bait. What the Garbrandt team had not anticipated was a lethal Dillashaw left leg kick that flushed Garbrandt as he was forcing the action on Dillashaw. This critical mistake of taking the fight to Dillashaw as opposed to patiently waiting to counter allowed Dillashaw to follow up on the stunned Champion with a vicious right hook which spelled the end of the night for Garbrandt.

Cody Garbrandt is two inches taller than Dillashaw and is five years younger than the current Champion (fighters five years younger or more than their opponent are victorious 62% of the time since UFC’s inception). While Dillashaw displays the technique, speed and diversity of a seasoned mixed martial artist, Garbrandt is armed with less multiplicity in attack but more precision, power and finishing ability.

Garbrandt expertise is utilizing efficient movement while he takes a premeditated, stalking approach to encouraging exchanges with opponents. He works patiently to lure opponents into trading, thus allowing him to fight at his strength which is off the counter. Garbrandt possesses unusual quickness, speed, power and when effectively delivered the effects are devastating as his record displays (Garbrandt is 11-1 with nine finishes). He utilizes a less diverse fighting style but it is exemplary in its quickness, simplicity and power.

In this rematch, Garbrandt must maintain control the center of the Octagon and encourage Dillashaw to engage trusting that once he makes a mistake, Garbrandt may capitalize, this time hopefully with enough time in the round to finish the job.  This was his plan last November and (with some minor modifications) it will be the plan Saturday night.  

In the first fight Garbrandt opened -135 to Dillashaw’s +105, at closing the price had escalated to Garbrandt -200 and Dillashaw +170.

There were factors that made it possible for Dillashaw to upset Garbrandt in the first fight. I attribute much of Dillashaw’s success to the guile and experience of a thirty-year-old fighting a recently crowned, twenty-four-year-old who was unprepared for the distractions and commitments of being a UFC Champion. The weeks long TUFF production also had a profoundly negative effect on Garbrandt as Dillashaw was able to push the younger man’s buttons and grind on him incessantly throughout the production.

Finally and ironically, it was an over anxious Garbrandt who ignored the patience plan and inadvertently engaged with what he thought was a wounded Dillashaw only to walk into a head kick followed by a crushing right hook. That impatience and variance from the blueprint for Garbrandt success will not occur Saturday night for Garbrandt took his PhD. in MMA that night in November and enters this fight a calmer, more cerebral, focused fighter.

Garbrandt enters this fight with infinitely more maturity, focus and determination as he attempts to regain the Championship he lost. I strive to uncover fighters who for any number of reasons are poised to deliver their absolute best performance on fight night. For Garbrandt the press demands have waned and the daily interaction between these two combatants via the TUF production are history leaving Garbrandt time and effort to prepare for one singular task.

I believe at a pick-em this fight reflects certain value for the younger, larger, more finitely focused ex-Champion. I expect Garbrandt to quietly and systematically chop Dillashaw down over time and earn back the Bantamweight Title.

Garbrandt -105

(8-4-18 update)

As you may see the price on Garbrandt has actually increased to +115 at the time of this writing. Clearly he is still a release anywhere around current pricing. Good luck, he’ll have to beat a damn equip Champion in TJ to get his hand raised.

Johnson -450 vs. Cejudo +400

Demetrious Johnson is truly a marvel of the sport and I’ll go as far as saying the he’s a top five all-time pound for pound talent in the history of the organization. That said, he is a human and though he deserves to be a rightful favorite in this spot it’s my judgement that he could well toil against an Olympic Gold Medal wrestling talent on his second at bat against Johnson. No doubt Johnson continues to evolve but in intricacies whereas I believe Cejudo has ascended in MMA’s skills at a more rapid rate this last couple of years. This fight will be competitive and I believe there’s a way for Cejudo to take this fight into the later rounds and wrestle the champion for Cejudo must fight at his strength in order to shock the world.

Cejudo +400 (half)

Munhoz -195 vs. Johns +180

Johns +200 was released yesterday @Twitter so while we lose a few pennies at times like the Garbrandt release above (Tuesday deadline for PSW) where we could not wait until post weigh-ins to drop the position, I do often achieve an above market price.

Munhoz is a submission specialist that may wish to engage John’s standing as it’s Johns who will want to get this to the floor for his forte’ is wrestling, grappling and ground control. The cat and mouse here is can and how will Johns get Munhoz to the mat? Shooting in on a guillotine expert is a sure way to slumber in sleep city so Johns must not expose his neck. Another interesting aspect of the fight is how the stand-up goes as Johns has a seven-inch reach advantage. Pumping a steady jab at the Brazilian and making him have to force his way inside would be a fine situation for the Welchman. Johns, the wrestler is the taller, larger, heavier man tonight and I believe it makes a difference in a very close fight.

Johns +200

I have my eye on another couple of real deep mangy mutts on this card but will wait until I feel the flow of the card to release anything further. Keep an eye on @Twitter.

Garbrandt +115
Loss
Result: -100
Cejudo +400 (half)
Won
Result: +200
Johns +200
Loss
Result: -100


UFC fox Calgary Poirier vs. Alvarez - 7/28/2018
W: 1 L: 3
Win: 25%
Result: -210

Fight Night 135 comes to us Saturday from Calgary,Alberta, where three former UFC Champions make their way into the Octagon to try to overtake game challengers. Each fight features top contenders in three divisions who with a win over the “name” fighter can propel themselves into title contention. Here’s a brief breakdown of each matchup originally published this past Wednesday. Today’s updated comments are added at the end.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Lightweight (155 pounds): Justin Poirier (-160) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+140)

This is a rematch of a phenomenal fight in May of last year when in the heat of attack, Eddie Alvarez illegally kneed Justin Poirier to the head while Poirier was grounded in the Round 2. Fighters are not allowed to knee or kick a grounded opponent, so the fight ended in a no contest. Poirier’s precision striking attack and distance control was earning him a one-sided shellacking of Alvarez in Round 1. Had it not been for Alvarez’s toughness and ability to fire back under extreme duress, the fight could easily have been stopped, but Alvarez made it to the bell.

This fight opened with Poirier at -145 to Alvarez at +105 and has slowly crept up to current pricing. Poirier’s six-year youth advantage and his more refined fighting style make him a slight favorite, but Alvarez’s toughness, grit and determination must not be underestimated. As in the first fight, Poirier must control and maintain his distance and use his speed, movement and precision strikes to chop down the forward charging Alvarez. He must tire him out and then rein strikes on the warrior. Alvarez must immediately take the fight to Poirier by walking him down, smothering him, eliminating his space and backing him up while pulverizing him with power punches.

The risk for Alvarez with this approach is how his cardio will hold up over 25 minutes of exertion. Cue the cat and mouse! This will be a classic rematch as each man knows what to expect from the other. The pricing is spot on for this fight, so use patience to see if the line moves much by fight time. I lean Alvarez based on his reactions in the second round of the first fight and believe he’ll come out very different in the first round, but I worry about a 34-year-old fighter with 15 years under his belt being able to display championship exertion for 25 minutes. At current pricing, this fight is too close to call.

Featherweight (145 pounds): Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+110)

Brazilian Jose Aldo, the former Bantamweight champion and one of the all-time greatest fighters in UFC history (Bantamweight 135 pounds), looks to recapture old glory in his quest to vie for the Featherweight title. He was undefeated in 18 UFC fights and reigned atop the Bantamweight division for nine years until in 2015 Conor McGregor took his soul. Since then Aldo returned to dominate Frankie Edgar in 2016, but most recently he lost two mentally and physically taxing fights against now champion Max Holloway, both by knockouts. While Aldo is clearly on the descent, he remains a viable, experienced, proud fighter. This is a career-making fight. With a victory, Aldo remains relevant as a contender at featherweight.

Stephens, who has the most knockdowns in UFC history, is a hungry ascending combatant who has won his last three fights in impressive fashion. At 31, he is the same age as Aldo, though most would agree that Aldo is arguable older in fight years. While evasion and quickness may not be Stephens’ strong suits, after the first round of exertion, Aldo will likely find it difficult to maintain striking distance from the taller, larger, determined pursuer. Stephens’ size and strength will make it most difficult for Aldo to wrest him to the floor, forcing this into a stand-up striking affair. That is just how Stephens wants it. These are fighters going in different career directions, and on Saturday, Stephens will prove to be too much for Aldo to contend with.

Stephens +110

Strawweight (115 pounds): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-300) vs. Tecia Torres (+250)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a Polish mixed martial artist and former Muay Thai kickboxer, was all the champ talk in the women’s strawweight division until she began believing the hype. After two crushing defeats to current champion Rose Namajunas, she must now find the mettle to compete with the other contenders to earn her way back into title consideration. The question entering this fight is how has she responded from two physically and mentally taxing losses against Namajunas? Tecia Torres, the Tiny Tornado, is absolutely made for Jedrzejczyk. Torres is a short, wrestling-based fighter who will need to work her way inside to be effective against the lethal-striking Jedrzejczyk. Torres is a wrestling-based fighter similar to Carla Esparza, but Torres is not as complete a wrestler as Esparza. Jedrzejczyk dominated Esparza in 2015 to win her title, so the litmus test here is whether she can display the movement, mentality and lethal striking on Saturday as she had prior to her drubbings from Namajunas. My assessment of this fight is that the UFC is interested in Jedrzejczyk returning to championship contention which is why they served her up with such a flattering stylistic match-up. Pass

(added 7-28-18 10:30am EST)

Aubin-Mercier -110 vs. Hernandez +100

Alex Hernandez looked outstanding in his UFC debut with a knockout of Beniel Dariush. Hernandez is fast and explosive though his only dealings against high level UFC begins in this fight against Aubin-Mercier. Hernandez takes a significant step up in class tonight as AM has won seven of his last eight bouts and the last four-straight. Aubin-Mercier is fourteenth ranked fighter in a completely stacked Lightweight Division.

Hernandez will try to swarm quickly to make this an onslaught striking battle while Aubin-Mercier must display the patience and lure to exert the younger less seasoned fighter early in this fight. Aubin-Mercier will need to weather a furious early storm then guide the fight to the second round where I believe he’ll be able to manhandle the smaller opponent and begin to take control of this fight with his more complete fighting arsenal, experience and strength/cardio.

Aubin-Mercier -110

Mein -120 vs. Morono +110

Mein’s in his home Country Alberta fighting a well lesser skilled fighter and yet his price is a measly minus -120? Mein’s got the talent and one would assume he’s going to put on his best in front of the home Country eh? Morono is tough as a two-dollar steak and has the will to compete.

Mangy road mutt alert

Morono +110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

Stephens +110
Loss
Result: -100
Aubin Mercier -110
Loss
Result: -110
MOrono +110
Loss
Result: -100
Cutelaba +100 (VSiN)
Won
Result: +100


UFC FN 134 - 7/22/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: -270
Teixiera -130 (Glover -115 twitter)
Loss
Result: -230
Meek -140
Loss
Result: -140
Smith/Rua Under 1.5 -110 twitter
Won
Result: +100


UFC FN 133 Dos Santos vs. Ivanov: Brawls on the Bench - 7/14/2018
W: 3 L: 1
Win: 75%
Result: +210

 

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 133 from Boise, Idaho. Tonight’s fight card is steeped with interesting matchups and value. I see a some potentially perilous positions but also have handicapped a couple of angles on fighters that arrive tonight poised to perform at their peak. I use every resource available to produce bottom line because after all, this is business.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time).

(Originally published 7-11-18 Point Spread Weekly VSIN)

Boise, Idaho hosts UFC Fight Night 133 this Saturday where ex-Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos (-175 favorite) takes on a debuting Heavyweight from Bulgaria Blagoy Ivanov (+155 underdog).

Dos Santos has had a storied UFC career for he has compiled a 16-4 record since his arrival to the UFC in 2008 against the most talented heavyweights of the times. However, in his last seven fights he’s realized a 3-4 record which is an indicator of a fighter that may be past his prime and on the downslope of his career (Dos Santos was beaten via stoppage in each of those four losses). Dos Santos is fighting Saturday for the first time since his defeat to Stipe Miocic in May of last year where he was iced in the first round. Also important is that Dos Santos was then pulled from a fight in September of last year for testing positive to performance enhancing substances against Francis Ngannou by USADA*. In April of this year he was re-instated and cleared to fight. It’s quite possible Dos Santos, without the contribution of foreign substances will look even more pedestrian than he has in his last couple of losses. Dos Santo’s main issue is that his once granite jaw now more resembles porcelain and he’s going to step into the octagon Saturday with a Bulgarian bomber who is well versed in mixed martial arts.

Blagoy Ivanov is Dos Santos’ opponent Saturday. He’s a relatively unknown fighter except to many of us fight nerds. He gained unwanted notoriety in 2012on his way to the UFC when he was knifed in a bar fight, fought for his life and after taking a couple years off to recover from near death ramifications has earned his way into this opportunity. Clearly the kid is determined, focused and tough as John Wayne’s saddle.

The 31-year-old Bulgarian fighter first gained FIGHT ever acclaim by defeating Fedor Emelianenko in the semifinals of the 2008 World Sambo Championships. In the decade since, he’s evolved into one of the top young heavyweight talents in a very thin heavyweight talent pool. Ivanov, an international master of Combat Sambo and a black belt in Judo will be the younger man by three years though I consider Dos Santos at this point in his career to display characteristics of a fighter much older than his thirty-four years.

Ivanov will be the shorter man with well less reach and experience however I believe he’ll be able to overcome those potential disadvantages by being the fresher, faster more explosive fighter Saturday night. Ivanov who is as complete a fighter as is Dos Santos moves extremely well for a two-hundred-and-fifty-pound athlete and he’s able to fire for a full three rounds.  It’s my belief from watching his film that the longer this fight goes the stronger Ivanov will become and he’ll eventually be able to dictate the pace and begin to back Dos Santos up. Once that happens this fight becomes a hunt.

This match-up opened as a pick-em but was immediately moved to current pricing which is reflective of the Dos Santos name (and lack of knowledge of Ivanov) but not of each fighter’s ability in my opinion. Ivanov, who looks more like a plumber than a fighter is getting a great opportunity to enter the UFC with a splash by putting Dos Santo’s name on his resume.

In the meantime, older heavyweights out there best believe that in a sport as competitive as MMA, and in an organization concerned about drawing power and capital intake that the day will come that they too will be managed as meat and fed to the next up and comer.

Ivanov +155

7-14-2018 update

Northcutt -125 vs. Ottow +115

Ottow is going to try to muscle, maul and bully Northcutt who has shown in past fights that he can be crowded, mauled, taken to the floor and held there. Northcutt’s also moving up to Welterweight (170lb.) where he’s experienced poor results. Yet Northcutt’s only twenty-two years old, he’s athletic, he’s shown a propensity to work on improvement and I base that on the fact that he’s with Faber and crew at Alpha Male where its certain that they’ve been addressing Northcutt’s take down defense and more importantly his wrestling. I also feel at his age that he’s going to be well more powerful and dangerous at this weight if he can utilize his movement and keep Ottow on the outside where he can utilize his kicking game to set up his whole striking arsenal. I also feel the UFC has interest in Sage surging up the rankings to contribute to future ratings, so my belief is that this is a favorable matchup for the kid based on Ottow’s less athletic, deliberate, plodding and somewhat predictable style.

Northcutt -125

Brown -130 vs. Price +110

This fight comes down to my preference for Price’s level of competition faced and his more complete fight arsenal. Though Price can be somewhat wild and unpredictable at times he is tough and comes prepared to fight all night so cardio is never an issue. Brown’s past opponents pall in comparison to Price’s but his precision striking and size will test Price as Price is used to being the taller man in many of his bouts. Brown’s complete lack of wrestling/grappling ability is going to be a target for Price and I believe it’s his path to our profitability.

Price +110

Mendes -115 vs. Jury -105

Mendes opened -230 for this fight and that line’s dropped like a hammer in a lake since its release. I’d agree that -230 may be too stringent a chalk price for a fighter who’s been off for some time serving suspension and has lost three of his last four fights but one look at his level of competition shows that he’s competed with the absolute best of the weight class for years.  

In my view people presume Mendes to be weak in the beak based on his eradication by Edgar so the unknown regarding this and his time off have people thinking that a well-rounded jack of all yet master of none who basically relies on his takedown for offense is going to maul and manage Mendes?

Jury shows up the younger, longer, taller fighter here but his resume is shoddy and his style feeds right into Mendes strengths in my opinion. While Mendes as a firm favorite is not my preference Mendes at current pricing (and I’ll advise waiting on this and determine if this line may yet compress another dime or so from the parlay playing pukes on Jury) is a worthy gamble because yes the time away could have hurt him but in my view time off for a mature wrestling-based fighter feeds the fury and tonight Mendes’ fury is going to be direct at Miles Jury.

Mendes now -115 (or better)

 

.

 

 

Mendes -115
Won
Result: +100
Northcutt -125
Won
Result: +100
Ivanov +156
Loss
Result: -100
Price +110
Won
Result: +110


UFC 226 Miocic vs. Cormier: Las Vegas Golden Fights - 7/7/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: -60

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 226. As is the custom we’ve lost the Co-main event of Holloway and Ortega which is sad for so many reasons, yet I applaud Holloway, his handlers and the UFC for cancelling this fight and allowing the athlete to recover and return. I’d tell you it will be 2019 before Holloway hits the Octagon next.

Since the beginning of the year I’ve been submitting my main event and other breakdowns to the fine people at VSiN for publication. The deadline for fights occurring on Saturday’s is Tuesday AM which is very early for this handicapper to make solid releases. That said, deadlines are deadlines and the practice has in my judgement sharpened my handicapping skill.

I’m quite aware that 2018 UFC profitability is unacceptable to date, but the seasons are long and (for whatever reason) it seems to take me until this huge UFC weekend to get my fight groove going. Refining my releases will also be a focus while I work my way back to profitability and I’d warn those that while this year has started slowly I can’t expect chalk to continue its torrid 70% performance rate. After last night’s card Favorites are running a smooth 152-65-10.

So, UFC 226 is here, my main event breakdown from Point Spread Weekly is below. I’ll spare everyone the Holloway/Ortega column unless requested.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

(below originally published 7-4-18 in VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly)

UFC 226 occurs in Las Vegas this week for the UFC’s annual exposition. The stacked card treats us to two Championship fights Saturday night. The evening’s feature bout tabbed as ‘the Super fight’ is a matchup pitting current UFC Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic against current Light-Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier for Miocic’s Heavyweight title. The co-main event is also a title fight at the Featherweight division and will feature two modern MMA era assassins facing off in Champion Max Holloway and undefeated challenger Brian Ortega.

Stipe Miocic – 240 (Champion) vs. Daniel Cormier +220 Heavyweight Championship (under 265lbs.)

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier entered the UFC in 2013 as a heavyweight but chose to drop to light-heavyweight because his training partner and good friend Cain Velasquez not only competed at the heavyweight division but held its title on two different occasions. Cormier who many consider undersized for heavyweight, fights well larger than his size for he possesses incredible strength, has absolute World Class wrestling ability and exhibits unrelenting forward pressure. Cormier’s advantages lie in his dynamic wrestling ability, his strong will, his ability to smother opponents and not allow them room to breathe (let along strike) and his vast fight experience.

Cormier defeated heavyweights earlier in his career but let’s not forget that he was thirty-four then and now approaches forty. In the five years since he’s competed at heavyweight he’s faced the absolute best of the Light-heavyweight division and smashed every challenger save for two losses to Jon Jones which both were overturned. While Cormier’s resume and history of dominance at light-heavyweight is undisputable, he does face the toughest challenge in his career in Heavyweight Champion Miocic. Cormier approaches his fortieth birthday which is cause for concern as he’s almost five years older than the Champion. As we are aware the five-year age difference favors the younger fighter 65% of the time in fights above 170lbs. As concerning to me is the fact that Cormier seems to be publicly planning career moves past this most arduous confrontation by mentioning other fighters he wants to face prior to retirement. I don’t put it past any intelligent fighter of any age to get caught up in the publicity and limelight of the moment and in my judgement planning a career path past the most important fight in one’s career is most unwise.

Stipe Miocic is the longest reigning UFC Heavyweight in history and this will be his fourth title defense. Miocic owns physical advantages over Cormier besides age, he’s five inches taller than DC and will own an eight-inch reach advantage, for a striking based fighter that is telling. Miocic while not as accomplished a wrestler as Cormier does possess a complete wrestling base. Miocic’s size and take down defense (75% take down defense) will allow him to withstand Cormier’s attempts to work inside and drag this fight to the floor.  Miocic’s advantage is on the feet and in space so where this fight occurs is the critical as DC wants to grind, rub, maul and brawl while Miocic wants to battle at distance and batter the incoming Cormier as he attempts to work his way inside. In my judgement Miocic’s size, length and athleticism will allow him to maintain distance from the charging Cormier.

I struggle to think that at forty years old and now fighting up a weight-class against a true heavyweight Champion that Cormier is going to be able to maintain his cardio level carrying that extra weight (he’s been fighting at 205lbs. is comfortable at 220-230lbs. and will be facing a fighter weighing 245lbs). Cormier’s age, this jump in weight against a larger stronger man and his chin (just one year ago DC was brutally KO’s by a Jones leg kick) coupled with Miocic being a natural heavyweight in his prime all contribute to my believing that this is going to be Stipe Miocic’s night..

This fight opened in February Miocic -170 which was unusually low in my estimation (I did manage an aggressive position there) and the line has steadily risen since. Current pricing is more reflective of true odds on this match-up in my judgement and for that reason this fight is a pass for me. 

Updated 7-7-18

Current pricing: Miocic -200 vs. Cormier +185

Cormier weighed in 246 and has not fought at that weight (or higher) since September of 2011 when he was thirty-three years of age. I believe DC’s weight is an indication that he’s going to completely “sell-out” to get inside on Miocic and try to maul him to the mat and make this a wrestling match. Miocic must be aware of this and fend off DC with take down defense as Cormier tries to force this fight to the floor.

This is the key to this fight as I believe Miocic can control this fight on the feet and pepper DC with strikes all night long especially after a round or two when Cormier begins to wane. Cormier’s size makes me feel less inclined to take this fight Over the three rounds because I just don’t believe a thirty-nine-year-old fighter with his years of wear (yes he also has advantage like experience going for him also) can overtake undefeated Father Time and overtake one of the worthiest heavyweight fighters in UFC history. If Miocic moves under -200 I would consider a release and will do so publicly via twitter if the number becomes attractive enough.

Hooker -120 vs. Burns +110

Angelo Dundee was rich in fight slang and one thing he would always warn, “Never hook with a hooker”. This is the advice I want to give Gilbert Burns in this fight. “Gilbert, grapple with Hooker and by all means don’t get too intoxicated with your recent success in the stand-up and think you can bang with this kid. I believe Burns is the more equip fighter and has been improving his wrestling which he is going to need tonight to get past a long angular one-dimensional striking based fighter in Hooker. Burns must take this to the floor and when he does he’ll own enough advantage to be able to harness Hooker.

Burns +110

Millender -160 vs. Griffin +150

Millender is a tall, long, striking based fighter entering his second fight in the UFC. In his first outing he was matched against a 5’8” Thiago Alves who is as old and slow as I am for crying out loud. Yes, Millender won impressively but to me he looked raw, swung wide and at times had those hands low and his beak protruding. Millender has what it takes to be a talent in the UFC but he is raw. I believe the past inconsistency of Griffin can be used to his favor here for he looked impressive painting Perry’s fence last out and I feel he is not getting the respect for that improvement. Griffin has the speed and ability to get inside of Millender, touch him up and expose the younger, less refined, more one-dimensional fighter.

Griffin +150

Felder -150 vs. Perry +140

I’ve been blabbing about this fight all week. A true mixed martial artist in Paul Felder on short notice moves up to 170lbs. to fight a raw, wild, bar room brawler who is trying to refine his game in Mike Perry. In past fights I have faded Perry because of his premium pricing (chalky) and his lack of any real MMA ability other than brute power, unrelenting pressure and an ability to take dynamic damage. BUT….that was against large, powerful top contenders in the Welterweight Division. Perry matches up well to a fighter in Felder that wants some distance and does not take well to being bullied and backed up. Perry rather than heavy chalk finally comes as a mangy mutt in this fight and I believe it is an advantageous position for him. He’s spent time at Jax/Wink (which Felder also has) and while you cannot take the stripes off a Zebra in one camp,  I do believe that Perry wants/needs to improve to remain relevant in the UFC and in this fight he is well matched. Flyer.

Perry +140

Ngannou -340 vs. Lewis +310

Important to note is that Ngannou trained for a spell at the UFC performance institute prior to his Championship fight with Stipe Miocic in January then returned to train there prior to this fight. After watching the weigh-ins, my feel is that he’s quite serious about his career based on the lean  body he showed up with when he weighed in at 253lbs. (ten pounds LIGHTER than his fight with Miocic in January). I originally wanted to side with Lewis in this spot based on Ngannou being raw and in need of fight improvement and conditioning but after seeing Ngannou and realizing that Lewis has had past struggles with his back and the ability to absorb body shots I must reconsider. The only position on this fight I’d entertain is Francis Ngannou via TKO/KO -140 to -150. I’m interested to see if Ngannou can perform up to the improvement his body has shown (as well what this Performance Institute has provided him) from January to now. I am a believer in the technology and progressive approach of the UFC Performance Institute and believe Ngannou may be leading the charge as it’s body of proof.

 

 

Perry +140
Won
Result: +140
Griffin +150
Loss
Result: -100
Burns +110
Loss
Result: -100


UFC FN 132 Cerrone vs. Edwards: Suplex in Singapore - 6/23/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: -80

Welcome to UFC Singapore Cerrone vs. Edwards. Below please find my write up for both main events that were published earlier this week on 'Point Spread Weekly', VSiN's subscription based newsletter which if i don't say so myself is an insightful weekly publication dedicated to those of us in the Profitable Sports Gaming business. Here's a few underdogs we feel may just rise up along with a wager on the Co-main event.

-Let's Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

The UFC goes back overseas to Singapore this week for an early Saturday morning fight card (main card begins at 5am PST).  These regional cards always take on a local flavor and with this being from Asia at an unusual hour with relatively unknown fighters; I’ll keep the breakdowns today brief and concise.

 

Leon Edwards -200 vs. Cowboy Cerrone +170 (170lbs.) Welterweight Main Event

(originally published 6-20-18)

Everything but the price favors Leon Edwards here. He’s the larger, younger, faster striking based fighter from England who trains at AKA in California. Edwards has rolled off six victories in a row after being dominated by Kamara Usman which by the way is nothing to be ashamed of. Edwards is kickboxing based and is precise and judicious in his punching. He does offer power but his best striking attribute is comes from his stamina and durability in that as the fight wears on his skills become more apparent and I expect this to be exemplified this Saturday against a thirty-five year old warrior who is proud but whose skills have dulled.

Edwards should allow Cerrone to work early and weather the early Cerrone storm in order to execute the most efficient way to take the Cowboy out. He’ll dictate this fight into the second or third round where the Cowboy’s age and worn tread will begin to show. Cerrone has all the knowledge, guile, experience and savvy to get this done but in my estimation he is nothing more than a stepping stone for these young fighters to utilize as they propel themselves up the Welterweight rankings. Edwards opened -130 and has been bet up appropriately to -200.

Pass

Pedro -120 vs. St. Preux +100 Light-Heavyweight (205lbs.)

This is a fight between a young man who grew up in a mixed martial arts family who’s still developing as a fighter and an ex-college football player who is learning how to become a mixed martial artist but has age and experience as his advantage. St. Preux, the football player turned MMA fighter has ability, athleticism, desire and quickness but he trains in a small local Knoxville, TN. gym and is basically self-taught (brown belt BJJ). While athletic I do question his Octagon IQ as well his consistency

Pedro, an Australian fighter is a decorated Black Belt in Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Kempo and a brown belt in BJJ. He’s more diverse a fighter than St. Preux in the clinch and on the floor, is eight years the younger man and even though St. Preux does have some wrestling ability it will be Pedro that must take this fight down in order to get his hand raised. Pedro is stepping up in class of athlete in this fight but this is a measured risk and one that in his own back yard (almost) he is sure to offer his best. Pedro opened up -120 and was bet up immediately. Recent action has compressed the line back down to current Pedro -120 where we feel there is value.

Pedro -120

Updated 6-22-18

Pedro is now -145 and I’ll leave any wager up to you. For me Pedro at current is as high as I would go...that said, I did release Pedro -160 via Twitter some weeks ago. If I liked him enough then to release at -160 then anything lower is gravy. For purposes of my results page Pedro will be recorded as -160. 

Periera -165 vs. Yan +145

We recommended this fight earlier this week with Gabriel Morency and Cam Stewart on the Fantasy Sports Network. Yan at that time was +180. At current pricing she’s still a play as she’ll be the larger, taller, longer fighter in there tonight. Live dog.

Yan +145

Young -165 vs. Dy +145

Couple of chinny aggressive fighters set to square off in this one. Young may have a little length and some power and Dy is maybe the tighter striker. Dog or pass

Dy +145

Clark -145 vs. Eye +135

I believe Clark is the mentally tougher more focused fighter at this stage of her career and that this is a poor spot for Jessica Eye.

 

Pedro -160
Loss
Result: -160
Yan +180
Won
Result: +180
Dy +145
Loss
Result: -100


“Price is what you pay, Value is what you get”

Mr.Warren Buffet

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