UFC FN137 Santos vs. Anders: Brawlo in Sao Paolo - 9/22/2018
W: 0 L: 1
Win: %
Result: 0

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night 137 from Sao Paolo, Brazil. The main event has resembled more a shell game than a headline fight as there have been numerous changes made before finally settling on Santos vs. Anders. As usual with these foreign cards, local and regional talent is highlighted and in most cases awarded favorable match-ups. While this leads to great marketing for the region it does not do a lot for competitive matchmaking in so far as the card is steep with heavy favorites. The final main event however sets up to be quite a stand up battle where either fighter has a distinct yet similar path to victory.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

-The following is my Santos vs. Anders breakdown originally published 9-18-18 for VSiN’s “Point Spread weekly”. I’ll provide today’s updates after that article-

Sao Paolo, Brazil hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night 137 where numerous main event changes and many regional/local Brazilian fighters make for another relatively obscure fight card.

The originally scheduled Main event was a Light- Heavyweight (205 lb.) marquee matchup pitting Brazilian Glover Teixeira with Englishman Jimi Manuwa. In my estimation (and I believe in Manuwa’s) Teixeira was made for Manuwa stylistically and maybe Teixeira knew this as he pulled out of the fight early with ‘injury’.

Manuwa was then placed in a similar situation, preparing an old, slow Light-Heavyweight in Teixeira when Middleweight slugger Thiago Santos (another Brazilian fighter) stepped in to grab the main event exposure and fight at Light-Heavyweight (205 lbs.) even though Santos fights at Middleweight (185lbs.).

Mysteriously and just a week ago, Jimi Manuwa pulled out of the fight after having incurred ‘injury’ and will now be replaced by Eryk Anders who fought in August on the card from Lincoln, Ne. Anders was more than willing to grab the opportunity to gain his second Main Event opportunity from the Mecca of MMA, Brazil in less than a year.

It’s my opinion that the cause of ALL of the changes in the main event on this card is based on one fighter having the ‘good sense’ and/or career incentive to duck the more dangerously styled replacement.

This refurbished fight card now features a main event where ironically advantage may lie with the replacement fighter (Anders) as opposed to the fighter who has been preparing for the event for weeks.

So in Saturday’s Main event from Sao Paolo the UFC will present us with two active Middleweight fighters (185 lbs.) that will fight on a Main Event as Light-Heavyweights. Santos for his part has been able to appropriately prepare for 205 lbs. (which means he has little to no weight cut in order to make weight).

Anders, who has been maintaining his conditioning for exactly this form of opportunity, now steps into a main event in Brazil where he won’t have to compromise his opportunity to be victorious by trying to cut abundant weight to get to 185.  Though his notice for this fight was just seven days or so his cut will be manageable as he can easily attain the 205 lb. limit. Clearly Anders has been in the gym since that August victory.

We don’t often get as many ‘moving parts’ affecting a fight as this one so I find this match-up intriguing as well challenging. Let’s break it down now that the table is set.

Thiago Santos -145 vs. Eryk Anders +125 Light Heavyweight Main Event (205lbs.)

Santos is not your typical BJJ artist from Brazil who wished to flop on the floor looking to submit the opponent. Rather he is a heavily muscled, profusely powered slugger that can turn an opponent’s lights out with one shot which is why Manuwa wanted no part of him in his own back yard.

Santos who is a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ has little defense against take downs, is quite one dimensional despite the BJJ background and is ineffective fighting from the floor should a fight go there. Santos biggest challenge is his ability to maintain his energy after a full round as he is muscled and has shown a tendency to slow after a full five minutes of battle. Couple this with a glass jaw and you have a fighter in Santos who really would have preferred a slower Jimi Manuwa over an explosive athlete in Anders. If Santos is to win this fight or any fight, it will be with his stand up and via KO and that would have been a bit more manageable against Manuwa than Anders in my judgement.

Eryk Anders steps in on a week’s notice for a dynamic career opportunity. He’s an ex-Alabama linebacker so we know he is tough, athletic and physical albeit somewhat developing in his professional UFC fight experience.

Anders career displayed great promise and ascent up until February of this year when as a hyped and hugely under experienced UFC combatant he accepted a fight against a beguiling experienced Lyoto Machida in Belem, Brazil and earned his PhD. in MMA (Machida schooled the kid and won in a split decision).

Anders is a purple belt in BJJ but also a striking based fighter by nature but as an ex-linebacker I know he can tackle and in this fight we may well see the kid bury Santos and make this fight a maul on the mat. He is very capable of executing take downs on Santos. His experience of fighting in Brazil earlier this year to disappointing results and his willingness to take this fight on seven days-notice all speak volumes for in my estimation the athletic Anders is a poor match-up for Santos in this Anders second trip to Brazil.

Anders power, athletic/explosive ability and his granite chin together make me feel that this fight should be more closely lined; in fact, I make this fight close to pick-em.

One may question Anders cardio having only a week to prepare for this fight and that is fair. It’s my judgement that he’s been preparing for an opportunity since he stepped out of the Octagon in August and he has the potential of being richly rewarded for being a prepared professional.

Fighting in Brazil will not intimidate Anders Saturday for he’ll arrive there this week feeling that he owns the Brazilian people more ‘fight’ than he showed this past February. Anders plan will be to exercise caution early and take the fight to Santos, force the slugger to exert energy which will eventually sap his speed, power and will.

Anders at a dog price is worthy of an investment.

Anders +125

Updated Saturday 9-22-18 12:45pm EST

Well fight enthusiasts, if I liked Anders +125 then needless to say that today I like Anders +165! Not only is it challenging to make these breakdowns the Monday prior to the fight but as a dog player the published VSiN price often offers less gaming value than the price available on the day of the fight. That said, a deadline is a deadline and my basic fight breakdown rarely changes. Don't be afraid to wait a little before pulling the triggerof you do like Anders for you may find another dime of so of value by being patient!

At this point I do have a couple of other leans on this card but nothing I want to publish at this time. I’ll rely on @Twitter for any late mangy mutt musings so stay tuned in!

October 6, 2018 is UFC 229 Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor. Count on a few aggressive positions for that fight card.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Anders +165
Loss
Result: 0


UFC FN 136 Hunt vs. Oleinik: Russian ruse? - 9/15/2018
W: 2 L: 1
Win: 67%
Result: +215

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 136 from Moscow Russia. As usual I’ll reprint my breakdown of the Main and Co-Main event of the evening then add my updated comments and any other mangy mutt releases I deem worthy of your investment.

There’s mucho to say about the pricing and line movement of the Main event on this card so stay the course with me here.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Originally published 9-12-18 “Point Spread Weekly”

The UFC takes a couple of weeks abroad to further export its brand with this week’s visit to Mother Russia for Saturday’s UFC fight night 136 from Moscow. In the main event New Zealand native and longtime dominant UFC heavyweight Mark ‘the Super Samoan’ Hunt takes on Russia’s own Aleksei ‘the Boa Constrictor’ Oleinik.

These overseas cards are laden with local/regional fighters and this card is no different as there are numerous Russian fighters featured in fights that will be noncompetitive in nature (there are only three fights on this slate where the favorite opened at a price less than -210).

I’m used to attacking these cards for future betting knowledge and fighter data rather than trying to profit off of regional talent and foreign judging especially in lieu of the prices displayed for this event. Also, because these bouts are from Moscow they’ll only be broadcast on UFC’s Fightpass and the bell for the first fight rings this Saturday at 7:30am PST!

Only hardcore fight fans will be tuning into these fights whose sole purpose is to spotlight local Russian fighters therefore increasing the UFC’s image and brand in a Country steeped in fighting history. This is an easy card to overlook but there is one fight on the slate where I feel there is value. Here’s a breakdown of the two main events of that fight slate.

Mark Hunt -200 vs. Aleksei Oleinik +180 Heavyweight Main Event (Under 265lbs.)

This fight can be described simply by viewing each combatant’s nickname as Hunt is a devastatingly powerful forty-four-year-old striker with a granite beak and he faces a forty-one-year-old Russian grappler extraordinaire who lacks striking ability but is as potent a submission specialist as there is in the top divisions of the UFC! 

As Angelo Dundee used to say, “Styles make fights” and this fight will be determined by where it takes place. If the Stocky Samoan keeps this fight standing, then he’ll knock-out the Russian. Oleinik must find a way to overcome Hunt’s strength, girth, power and pressure to try to clasp onto him in order to get Hunt to the ground which is his only chance at getting his hand raised.

Hunt opened -240 and the line has compressed in favor of the Russian here. Oleinik sports some advantage over Hunt as he is four inches taller and will have dynamic arm and leg reach on the super powered Kiwi but Hunt has rarely been the taller man in any of the fights he’s faced in his decade’s long career. It’s my judgement that even if Oleinik arrives with a sledgehammer in his hand he won’t be able to hurt Hunt.

Hunt deserves the favorite’s role and I must say I am a bit surprised in the compression of the line. If this price drops much farther I may have to take a long hard look at Mark Hunt for I see little way a grossly undersized Oleinik (he’ll enter the Octagon at 235lbs.) will be able to take that two-hundred and sixty-five pound (more like 275 lbs. come fight time) fire hydrant to the mat or be able to withstand too many strikes from the surprisingly athletic and explosive Mark Hunt.

Nikita Krylov -110 vs. Jan Blachowicz +100 Light-Heavyweight (205lbs.) Co-main event

Krylov was in the UFC until 2016 but returned to the regional scene in order to improve upon his game and become a more multi-faceted fighter. However, the level of competition he faced was far below that of the UFC standard in my judgement and I didn’t see any real diversity in his game by viewing his recent bouts. Krylov, though a Master of Sport in Kyoshin Karate and hand to hand combat in the Ukraine is still a relatively one dimensional striker who has size and power but who is often overmatched if taken to the floor and deep into a fight.

Blachowicz who has earned his number four ranking in the UFC’s Light-heavyweight division is well more multi-dimensional in his fighting ability and has rattled off three straight wins in a row with the latest being an upset of then, third ranked Light-Heavyweight contender, Jimi Manuwa. Blachowicz is well-rounded and versed anywhere this fight goes. He’ll look to eventually take the longer Ukrainian fighter off of his feet and to the floor for a festival of damaging fists and elbows.

In my judgement Blachowicz should be a moderate chalk in this fight and feel at current pricing (+100) he is worthy of a moderate wager Saturday…. from Mother Russia with love of course.

Updated 9-14-18 9pm EST

The smell of bad Borscht is permeating the UFC air as I view the main event line movement. You read my breakdown of the fight and the updated odds now show that Mark Hunt is now -125 over the undersized local submission specialist Oleinik. I’ve long suspected shenanigans out of Russia based on their historical disregard for rules and propensity to do anything required to portray themselves as elite no matter the sport and no matter the decade so excuse me if I point out that their local is getting played like they have tomorrow’s “The Moscow News” sports section in their hands.

Make certain that I’ll be watching this number to see what happens because Hunt -125 is a bargain…. but how low may it go? Follow me on Twitter @GambLou for updates.

Blachowicz, now +140 has moved to official mangy mutt category and I certainly advocate a unit position on him in this fight but be patient and gain every nickel of parlay playing puke action you can grab.

Taisumov -475 vs. Green +440

Taisumov a striker knows he’s in with a strong gifted wrestler so he borrows a page from that Brazilian cheat Prazeres and wallows to and fro the scales 6lbs. over weight at 161 for a fight at 155. This form of outright cheating must be stopped by the UFC rather than rewarding fighters who employ this tactic on purpose knowing that they invest the loss of purse in the future earnings that the win will provide them. Cheating to gain advantage must be stopped.

Meanwhile there’s a fight and Green is no slouch and he’ll give this cheating Rusk’ie bastard all he can handle.

Over 2.5 +125

 

 

 

 

Blachowicz +140
Won
Result: +140
Taisumov/Green Over 2.5 +120
Won
Result: +125
Doloway +140 half twitter
Loss
Result: -50


UFC 228 Woodley vs. Till: A trip to the Woodhouse - 9/8/2018
W: 1 L: 1
Win: 50%
Result: +215

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 228 from Dallas, Texas. Unfortunately for fans of the Women’s flyweight division that title fight has been cancelled and the battle for its belt will be held at a later date. Many fight enthusiasts choose to belly ache and grip about these cancellations in the fight game that have been occurring since time began but no one more so that the UFC who is trying to bottom line each production. I get that they want their schedule to remain intact but let’s all not be so eager to back an organization that bullies and mandates its fighters and treats them unlike any other professional athlete.

In the end adroit handicapper should be willing to understand what transpires when two people prepare (as fight athlete’s must) for battle and react to whatever information presents itself last minute with more speed, timing and acumen than the marketplace. Our battle is not with the fighter’s or the UFC amigo’s. Our battle is with the ‘Book.

As usual today we’ll post the article published Wednesday 9-5-18 for VSiN’s publication “Point Spread weekly” on the main event and another fight. Following that repost I’ll update all releases and post our final selections.

Enjoy the weekend everyone and remember we’re in this for profit not action!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

-originally published 9-5-18 ‘Point Spread Weekly’-

This week the UFC offers a Welterweight Title fight from deep in the heart of Dallas, Texas where Tyron Woodley will defend his 170lb.title against English challenger Darren Till. Here’s what I quipped last week on Point Spread weekly about this fight:

Tyron Woodley -115 vs. Darren Till -105 Welterweight Title Fight (170lbs.)

Champion Woodley opened -145 (off shore) and early action has come in on the massive sized challenger from England who towers over the Champion in size. Till’s young, brash, one-dimensional and relatively inexperienced especially against capable grappling/wrestling based fighters. Woodley’s a two time all American wrestler with a brown belt in BJJ who is an extremely explosive and powerful striker. Woodley is a bargain at -115 so I advise some investment now as I do believe he should be the favorite in this match-up. If the line continues to go Woodley’s way, we won’t be shy.

 Current pricing remains the same and I’ll stand by my comments that Woodley is being a bit undervalued in this fight. Till’s size (especially standing next to Woodley), his brash talk and striking style make for an imposing fighter but there is more to MMA than size and a single dimensional fight arsenal. 

Till spent a few years honing his craft in Brazil and owns a purple belt in Luta Libra fighting though in the fire of battle he can revert to the street thug brawler that is at his base. Till must not be allowed to fight from and control the middle of the Octagon as his last two opponents easily allowed. He’s at his strength controlling the center of the octagon and fighting Woodley from a measured distance is his way to win this fight.

Any opponent who wants to tackle Till must be able to force the massive Welterweight backwards and make him exert high energy over time. This is where he’s most vulnerable. Until this fight he’s had the pleasure of fighting smaller striking based fighters with well less acumen and wrestling ability than Tyron Woodley and each allowed Till to make the fight by controlling pace.

The first order of business for Woodley is to be both patient in his charges and unrelenting with his pressure as he must manage to force the giant backwards and make him exert energy. Pushing the brassy Brit back for a round or two and making him defend takedown attempts will physically tax Till and limit the speed and power of his long looping telegraphed Sunday shots.

The Woodley plan is patience and pressure based but this fight must eventually find its way to the floor with Woodley on top, reigning damage if Woodley is to retain his title. Woodley must be able to weather the early minutes of this fight then in premeditated fashion begin to apply unrelenting forward pressure on the Brit.

In order for Woodley to retain he must make Till uncomfortable in the cage and it is with steady measured forward pressure that Woodley must execute his plan Saturday.

Recent UFC title fights have featured nonstop fighting fury and but based on each man’s historic pace and tendencies don’t be surprised if this match-up puts the fans to sleep rather than one fighter knocking another out.

That said, Woodley’s All-American pedigree in wrestling, his power, cardio, vast experience edge and fight intelligence together provide him advantage over a young fighter that I believe will earn his PhD. in MMA Saturday Night.

Woodley -115

Abdul Razak Alhassan -165 vs. Nico Price +125

Nico Price is two inches taller than Alhassan, he’ll own a three- inch reach advantage with both arms and legs as well Price is five years the younger fighter (62% advantage when one fighter is five or more years younger than their opponent). These physical advantages coupled with the fact that Price has the more complete offensive arsenal make Price an underdog that I am watching closely as we approach weigh-ins. Any potential release on Nico Price will be made after weigh-ins and via Twitter @GambLou.

Updated 9-8-1811am EST

We now have Woodley -115 in hand  and then yesterday we took another unit +130 making the two-unit price +108 which is still a value based on Woodley’s opening price of -145.

Also regarding the Alhassan vs. Price fight, as you can see we have lost opportunity to gain market advantage on Price as he is now +110 which is why there was no release on him via @Twitter. Price as a dog of +125 was a consideration but any value on Price as a mutt is now gone. While Price has some physical advantages in this fight let’s not underestimate his lack of defense and Alhassan’s quickness and power. We’ll watch this one as I am now actually leaning to Alhassan which means….Pass.

Neal -190 vs. Camacho +180

Here’s a fight where two charging bulls will compete for the center of the Octagon. Neal is from Texas and will be ready to provide his best but where he excels (an aggressive boxing based striker) is where Camacho thrives too. The difference may be that once they both get tired from Sunday punching one another Camacho can turn to his more complete wrestling game. Let’s trust he has the IQ to try to win this fight as opposed to just try to KO the local which is the more treacherous approach.

Camacho +180 (half)

Others I’m watching:

I lean heavily to a couple favorites which is why I am dallying only because if the price continues to drop then I may actually pull the trigger on both White’s.

One dog I am watching is John Dodson. That fight is completely baffling as Rivera has the size and power but I am not sure if he can catch JD while Dodson is a pitter patter puncher who will be unable to take Rivera out in my estimation unless that KO via Moraes is still affecting Rivera.

If I move on any of these fights, they’ll be released via @GambLou on Twitter prior to the opening bell of course!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Woodley +108 2u
Won
Result: +220
Camacho +180 half
Loss
Result: -5


UFC FN 135 Gathje vs. Vick: Pain in the Plains - 8/25/2018
W: 1 L: 1
Win: 50%
Result: +145

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 135 from Lincoln, Ne. The UFC has been on a break the last few weeks and the recharge was welcomed as we may now can focus on the last third of the 2018 UFC calendar. Yes, profits in 2018 UFC have been thin but the campaign is for a full year.

Conservative wagering has allowed us to realize a poor win percentage yet still be in position to realize bottom line profitability by the end of the year. We’re going to have to put a few weeks together here which is exactly how this works in real life people. Grinding out of a slow period of profitability is a reality of long term Profitable Sports Gaming. If you can’t work your way through periods of adversity, then this may not be the game for you. For me…. I love the competition and now there’s just one thing remains to be done…. focus and close like an Irish Thoroughbred racehorse down the stretch.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business). 

-Originally publsihed 8-22-28 Point Spread Weekly-

The UFC returns Saturday with a Fight Night event “from the town of Lincoln, Nebraska” featuring a Lightweight main event where Justin ‘the Highlight’ Gaethje takes on James ‘The Texecutioner’ Vick. Here’s a breakdown for that main event with another fight from the undercard.

James Vick -155 vs. Justin Gaethje +135 Lightweight main event (155lbs.)

James Vick is a massive Lightweight standing 6’3” and sporting a 76” inch reach. Vick’s used to being the longer, taller man in the Octagon and when firing on all cylinders uses a stiff jab to maintain distance which allows him to set up a straight right hand. Vick is most effective working off that jab and utilizing an accumulation of punches to best opponents for one punch power he does not possess. Vick is a relatively one dimensional striking based fighter who lacks any real wrestling prowess or ability to effectively grapple in close range. He must compete from distance where his range can be dominating offensively and as importantly defensively for he is lacking in the clinch. Many tall fighters must protect against ‘tall man’s disease” which simply put is the propensity for the taller man’s chin to be easily protruding and in range once opponents can make their way insider of the taller fighter to exchange.  Vick must not allow Gaethje to clasp, clinch or grapple in this fight if he is to come away victorious for his beak is relatively weak as Vick’s been knocked out by strikers well less apt than Gaethje.

Gaethje’s recent fights have displayed his tendency to walk his opponents down and engage in stand up wars as he tried with recent opponents Alvarez and Poirier. This is great for ratings but not so smart against the highest level of UFC competition. It’s a tactic has worked well against less than world class opponents but has not worked so well against Gaethje’s recent competition which is certainly a level above anyone that Vick has been in the Octagon with. One offensive tactic Gaethje employs against all of his opponents (which he must work Saturday) are his devastating leg kicks. Leg kicks will help Gaethje overcome his five-inch arm reach disadvantage as well can damage the base of the striker Vick thus limiting his ability to maintain space.

Gaethje has a solid wrestling base though one would hardly know this from watching his recent body of work. If he is really looking to maintain his standing inside the UFC and the Lightweight division then he must use fight intelligence and utilize his wrestling in this matchup.

Leg kicks, closing distance and fighting inside will be the Gaethje plan. Once he works his way inside and clasps onto the longer striker, he’ll apply damage from the pocket then eventually haul him to the floor for top control and dominant positioning. It’s mandatory that Gaethje force this fight to the floor and make Vick utilize energy in both trying to remain upright, then once Vick is grounded to force him to struggle to get back to his feet.

This fight comes down to Gaethje employing fight IQ, staying with the plan that he’ll no doubt be provided with (which is to get inside to maul and wrestle the longer more one dimensional fighter) and force this fight into a maul on the mat. Pride may be Gaethje’s biggest opponent Saturday night and provided employ’s all of the aspects of mixed martial arts in his arsenal then Gaethje should chop down the longer striker early with leg kicks then take this fight to the floor where the ‘Texecutioner’ will be unable to effectively compete over the course of five rounds.

Gaethje +135

Deiveson Figueiredo -160 vs. John Moraga +140

Figueiredo is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who is well-versed in Muay Thai and boxing. He’s 3-0 in the UFC but has had the pleasure of fighting all his UFC matches in Brazil and against opponents not as versed in MMA as is Moraga. For this fight he’ll travel into the USA and I must say that getting to Lincoln, Ne. from anywhere in the US is problematic so flying into Lincoln from Brazil is something that will force me to watch the weigh-ins closely as there are numerous Brazilian fighters making this trip into the heartland and the toil of travel may absolutely affect a fighters weight and mental well-being.

While capable on the floor, Figueiredo will want to make this a striking battle with Moraga which is where they feel they’ll have advantage. Moraga is a dominant wrestling based fighter who has had to improve upon his boxing in order to realize his recent resurgence and has done so with great effectiveness. The Moraga plan will be to engage the Brazilian only long enough to turn this into a wrestling/grappling match. The feeling at the Moraga camp is that Moraga’s wrestling and cardio will be advantages and the key to this fight. Moraga has won his last three fights in a row and is a tireless worker in the gym. I look for a closely contested decision win for John Moraga. When it’s this close rely on the wrestler.

I’ll choose to watch this line increase as we near the opening bell knowing that Moraga may well close at a higher price than we are seeing today (He opened -105). I’ll release this fight officially via twitter at or just after weigh-ins as this price is slowly rising.

8-25-18 12:55pm EST

Moraga +140

Gaethje +135
Won
Result: +135
Moraga +140
Loss
Result: +10


UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt: SoCal submissions - 8/4/2018
W: 1 L: 2
Win: 33%
Result: 0

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 227 when two UFC Championships are on the line. I’ll present my main event breakdown which originally appeared in VSiN’s Wednesday’s newsletter called ‘Point Spread Weekly” followed by any updates from today with other releases I feel are worthy of investment.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

(originally published 8-1-18)

The UFC follows up an excellent FOX fight card with this weeks’ UFC 227 from Los Angeles, CA. The main event is a rematch for the Bantamweight title which figures to be as competitive and violent a match-up as last weekend’s Poirier vs. Alvarez fight. This rematch pits current Champion TJ Dillashaw in his first title defense against the man whom he whupped to earn it, ex-Champion Cody Garbrandt.

TJ Dillashaw -115 vs. Cody Garbrandt -105 Bantamweight Title (135lbs.)

In November of last year Garbrandt defended his title against Dillashaw in an epic back and forth fight that culminated many months of tension, trash talking and threats between the two combatants who had been opposing coaches on the UFC program The Ultimate Fighter.

The origin for the hatred between these two goes back to when they were all a band of brothers at Team Alpha Male. That is until October of 2015 when Dillashaw left the team to join his striking coach’s new gym in Colorado which began a litany of accusations, insults and innuendo between the two fighters and respective camps that continues to rage to this day. These are two of the top fighters not only in the division but on a pound for pound basis, they're both skilled in their own expertise, possess power and each must stick to their respective game plan in order to overtake their most hated opponent.

Dillashaw is a multi-faceted fighter that can wrestle, grapple and strike with great diversity and power. His greatest asset is his movement which allows him to close distance, cut angles and escape most counter punching combatants. Bantamweights all have the ability to move fluidly as well most base their attack on accumulation as opposed to one punch, lights-out power. Dillashaw is versed with the whole package and will have advantage over Garbrandt in his ability to maintain the space needed to inflict damage then evade.

In the first fight Dillashaw struggled in the first round to earn his way inside. He utilized leg kicks to try to close distance against the stalking Garbrandt and as the round was closing, Dillashaw left himself open and got dropped by a lightning quick, powerful Garbrandt right. Had that first round been another eight seconds longer Garbrandt would have won the fight as Dillashaw was rocked and on rubber legs.

 An important aspect of that fight and perhaps more important this time around was the fact that the Garbrandt camp figured that the plan of success against Dillashaw (used perfectly by Dominic Cruz when we took the title from Dillashaw) was to frustrate him early, neutralize his movement and force Dillashaw away from his plan of attack. Once they could force Dillashaw off plan they figured it to be Garbrandt’s advantage if the fight transformed into an old fashioned 'throw down'.

In the second round Dillashaw began to move less and fire more power shots on Garbrandt in response to being clipped. The irony of Garbrandt’s plan was that it was working into round two for Dillashaw had taken the bait. What the Garbrandt team had not anticipated was a lethal Dillashaw left leg kick that flushed Garbrandt as he was forcing the action on Dillashaw. This critical mistake of taking the fight to Dillashaw as opposed to patiently waiting to counter allowed Dillashaw to follow up on the stunned Champion with a vicious right hook which spelled the end of the night for Garbrandt.

Cody Garbrandt is two inches taller than Dillashaw and is five years younger than the current Champion (fighters five years younger or more than their opponent are victorious 62% of the time since UFC’s inception). While Dillashaw displays the technique, speed and diversity of a seasoned mixed martial artist, Garbrandt is armed with less multiplicity in attack but more precision, power and finishing ability.

Garbrandt expertise is utilizing efficient movement while he takes a premeditated, stalking approach to encouraging exchanges with opponents. He works patiently to lure opponents into trading, thus allowing him to fight at his strength which is off the counter. Garbrandt possesses unusual quickness, speed, power and when effectively delivered the effects are devastating as his record displays (Garbrandt is 11-1 with nine finishes). He utilizes a less diverse fighting style but it is exemplary in its quickness, simplicity and power.

In this rematch, Garbrandt must maintain control the center of the Octagon and encourage Dillashaw to engage trusting that once he makes a mistake, Garbrandt may capitalize, this time hopefully with enough time in the round to finish the job.  This was his plan last November and (with some minor modifications) it will be the plan Saturday night.  

In the first fight Garbrandt opened -135 to Dillashaw’s +105, at closing the price had escalated to Garbrandt -200 and Dillashaw +170.

There were factors that made it possible for Dillashaw to upset Garbrandt in the first fight. I attribute much of Dillashaw’s success to the guile and experience of a thirty-year-old fighting a recently crowned, twenty-four-year-old who was unprepared for the distractions and commitments of being a UFC Champion. The weeks long TUFF production also had a profoundly negative effect on Garbrandt as Dillashaw was able to push the younger man’s buttons and grind on him incessantly throughout the production.

Finally and ironically, it was an over anxious Garbrandt who ignored the patience plan and inadvertently engaged with what he thought was a wounded Dillashaw only to walk into a head kick followed by a crushing right hook. That impatience and variance from the blueprint for Garbrandt success will not occur Saturday night for Garbrandt took his PhD. in MMA that night in November and enters this fight a calmer, more cerebral, focused fighter.

Garbrandt enters this fight with infinitely more maturity, focus and determination as he attempts to regain the Championship he lost. I strive to uncover fighters who for any number of reasons are poised to deliver their absolute best performance on fight night. For Garbrandt the press demands have waned and the daily interaction between these two combatants via the TUF production are history leaving Garbrandt time and effort to prepare for one singular task.

I believe at a pick-em this fight reflects certain value for the younger, larger, more finitely focused ex-Champion. I expect Garbrandt to quietly and systematically chop Dillashaw down over time and earn back the Bantamweight Title.

Garbrandt -105

(8-4-18 update)

As you may see the price on Garbrandt has actually increased to +115 at the time of this writing. Clearly he is still a release anywhere around current pricing. Good luck, he’ll have to beat a damn equip Champion in TJ to get his hand raised.

Johnson -450 vs. Cejudo +400

Demetrious Johnson is truly a marvel of the sport and I’ll go as far as saying the he’s a top five all-time pound for pound talent in the history of the organization. That said, he is a human and though he deserves to be a rightful favorite in this spot it’s my judgement that he could well toil against an Olympic Gold Medal wrestling talent on his second at bat against Johnson. No doubt Johnson continues to evolve but in intricacies whereas I believe Cejudo has ascended in MMA’s skills at a more rapid rate this last couple of years. This fight will be competitive and I believe there’s a way for Cejudo to take this fight into the later rounds and wrestle the champion for Cejudo must fight at his strength in order to shock the world.

Cejudo +400 (half)

Munhoz -195 vs. Johns +180

Johns +200 was released yesterday @Twitter so while we lose a few pennies at times like the Garbrandt release above (Tuesday deadline for PSW) where we could not wait until post weigh-ins to drop the position, I do often achieve an above market price.

Munhoz is a submission specialist that may wish to engage John’s standing as it’s Johns who will want to get this to the floor for his forte’ is wrestling, grappling and ground control. The cat and mouse here is can and how will Johns get Munhoz to the mat? Shooting in on a guillotine expert is a sure way to slumber in sleep city so Johns must not expose his neck. Another interesting aspect of the fight is how the stand-up goes as Johns has a seven-inch reach advantage. Pumping a steady jab at the Brazilian and making him have to force his way inside would be a fine situation for the Welchman. Johns, the wrestler is the taller, larger, heavier man tonight and I believe it makes a difference in a very close fight.

Johns +200

I have my eye on another couple of real deep mangy mutts on this card but will wait until I feel the flow of the card to release anything further. Keep an eye on @Twitter.

Garbrandt +115
Loss
Result: -100
Cejudo +400 (half)
Won
Result: +200
Johns +200
Loss
Result: -100


UFC fox Calgary Poirier vs. Alvarez - 7/28/2018
W: 1 L: 3
Win: 25%
Result: -210

Fight Night 135 comes to us Saturday from Calgary,Alberta, where three former UFC Champions make their way into the Octagon to try to overtake game challengers. Each fight features top contenders in three divisions who with a win over the “name” fighter can propel themselves into title contention. Here’s a brief breakdown of each matchup originally published this past Wednesday. Today’s updated comments are added at the end.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  It’s business).

Lightweight (155 pounds): Justin Poirier (-160) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+140)

This is a rematch of a phenomenal fight in May of last year when in the heat of attack, Eddie Alvarez illegally kneed Justin Poirier to the head while Poirier was grounded in the Round 2. Fighters are not allowed to knee or kick a grounded opponent, so the fight ended in a no contest. Poirier’s precision striking attack and distance control was earning him a one-sided shellacking of Alvarez in Round 1. Had it not been for Alvarez’s toughness and ability to fire back under extreme duress, the fight could easily have been stopped, but Alvarez made it to the bell.

This fight opened with Poirier at -145 to Alvarez at +105 and has slowly crept up to current pricing. Poirier’s six-year youth advantage and his more refined fighting style make him a slight favorite, but Alvarez’s toughness, grit and determination must not be underestimated. As in the first fight, Poirier must control and maintain his distance and use his speed, movement and precision strikes to chop down the forward charging Alvarez. He must tire him out and then rein strikes on the warrior. Alvarez must immediately take the fight to Poirier by walking him down, smothering him, eliminating his space and backing him up while pulverizing him with power punches.

The risk for Alvarez with this approach is how his cardio will hold up over 25 minutes of exertion. Cue the cat and mouse! This will be a classic rematch as each man knows what to expect from the other. The pricing is spot on for this fight, so use patience to see if the line moves much by fight time. I lean Alvarez based on his reactions in the second round of the first fight and believe he’ll come out very different in the first round, but I worry about a 34-year-old fighter with 15 years under his belt being able to display championship exertion for 25 minutes. At current pricing, this fight is too close to call.

Featherweight (145 pounds): Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+110)

Brazilian Jose Aldo, the former Bantamweight champion and one of the all-time greatest fighters in UFC history (Bantamweight 135 pounds), looks to recapture old glory in his quest to vie for the Featherweight title. He was undefeated in 18 UFC fights and reigned atop the Bantamweight division for nine years until in 2015 Conor McGregor took his soul. Since then Aldo returned to dominate Frankie Edgar in 2016, but most recently he lost two mentally and physically taxing fights against now champion Max Holloway, both by knockouts. While Aldo is clearly on the descent, he remains a viable, experienced, proud fighter. This is a career-making fight. With a victory, Aldo remains relevant as a contender at featherweight.

Stephens, who has the most knockdowns in UFC history, is a hungry ascending combatant who has won his last three fights in impressive fashion. At 31, he is the same age as Aldo, though most would agree that Aldo is arguable older in fight years. While evasion and quickness may not be Stephens’ strong suits, after the first round of exertion, Aldo will likely find it difficult to maintain striking distance from the taller, larger, determined pursuer. Stephens’ size and strength will make it most difficult for Aldo to wrest him to the floor, forcing this into a stand-up striking affair. That is just how Stephens wants it. These are fighters going in different career directions, and on Saturday, Stephens will prove to be too much for Aldo to contend with.

Stephens +110

Strawweight (115 pounds): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-300) vs. Tecia Torres (+250)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a Polish mixed martial artist and former Muay Thai kickboxer, was all the champ talk in the women’s strawweight division until she began believing the hype. After two crushing defeats to current champion Rose Namajunas, she must now find the mettle to compete with the other contenders to earn her way back into title consideration. The question entering this fight is how has she responded from two physically and mentally taxing losses against Namajunas? Tecia Torres, the Tiny Tornado, is absolutely made for Jedrzejczyk. Torres is a short, wrestling-based fighter who will need to work her way inside to be effective against the lethal-striking Jedrzejczyk. Torres is a wrestling-based fighter similar to Carla Esparza, but Torres is not as complete a wrestler as Esparza. Jedrzejczyk dominated Esparza in 2015 to win her title, so the litmus test here is whether she can display the movement, mentality and lethal striking on Saturday as she had prior to her drubbings from Namajunas. My assessment of this fight is that the UFC is interested in Jedrzejczyk returning to championship contention which is why they served her up with such a flattering stylistic match-up. Pass

(added 7-28-18 10:30am EST)

Aubin-Mercier -110 vs. Hernandez +100

Alex Hernandez looked outstanding in his UFC debut with a knockout of Beniel Dariush. Hernandez is fast and explosive though his only dealings against high level UFC begins in this fight against Aubin-Mercier. Hernandez takes a significant step up in class tonight as AM has won seven of his last eight bouts and the last four-straight. Aubin-Mercier is fourteenth ranked fighter in a completely stacked Lightweight Division.

Hernandez will try to swarm quickly to make this an onslaught striking battle while Aubin-Mercier must display the patience and lure to exert the younger less seasoned fighter early in this fight. Aubin-Mercier will need to weather a furious early storm then guide the fight to the second round where I believe he’ll be able to manhandle the smaller opponent and begin to take control of this fight with his more complete fighting arsenal, experience and strength/cardio.

Aubin-Mercier -110

Mein -120 vs. Morono +110

Mein’s in his home Country Alberta fighting a well lesser skilled fighter and yet his price is a measly minus -120? Mein’s got the talent and one would assume he’s going to put on his best in front of the home Country eh? Morono is tough as a two-dollar steak and has the will to compete.

Mangy road mutt alert

Morono +110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

Stephens +110
Loss
Result: -100
Aubin Mercier -110
Loss
Result: -110
MOrono +110
Loss
Result: -100
Cutelaba +100 (VSiN)
Won
Result: +100


“Price is what you pay, Value is what you get”

Mr.Warren Buffet

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