5-19-18 10:35pm EST
Making Cannonier a full unit wager
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC fight Night from Santiago Chile. Below is the column I submitted this week for Point Spread Weekly which can be accessed via VSiN.com. Following that main event breakdown is an update that includes my other releases for the UFC.
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time. After all, it’s business).
UFC Fight Night 129
(Published 5-15-18 Point Spread Weekly)
Kamara Usman -400 vs. Damian Maia +325 Main Event (Welterweight 170lbs.)
This week’s UFC card remains in South America with a trip to Santiago, Chile for Fight Night 129. Kamara Usman is a rising star in the UFC. He faces Damian Maia who’s recognized as a World Class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master and one of the most feared submission specialists in MMA.
Rather than a stand-up brawl and toe to toe affair Maia must find a way to fight at his strength which is on the floor. Usman however is an NCAA Division II Championship wrestler who’ll sport outstanding take down defense which sets up the cat and mouse for this fight. I learned long ago that kryptonite to World Class BJJ specialists is a wrestling-based fighter with a well-rounded fight arsenal.
Wrestling prowess provides a fighter with the needed leverage, floor ability and hand control to not only compete with BJJ artists but at times dominate them. Conditioning and toughness are also innate advantages for wrestlers as they know little other than grinding, grappling and groping for hours daily.
To complete their MMA fighting arsenal wrestlers need to develop precision striking ability which is something they often lack. They also must learn how to take a straight power punch to the point of the jaw which never happens in their competitions. This takes time as it is not natural or easy to learn then employ. However, once a wrestling-based fighter arms themselves with fluidity about their stand-up game (both offensively and defensively) and an ability to take punches then the ascent to world Champion will soon follow.
I’ve just provided you with a portrait of Kamara Usman. Usman is all of the above with an abundance of bad intention laced throughout. While no spring chicken he is fresh into the sport as a thirty-one-year-old who’s been fighting professionally since 2012. He’ll have a ten-year age advantage on Maia (forty) who’s only real angle in this fight is to catch Usman in a mistake and try to submit him early. I’ve not seen Usman eat a huge power punch and (like most wrestlers) the jury is out on his ability to take a Sunday shot but Damian Maia is not the fighter that’s going to test Usman with any form of stand-up threat Saturday night.
Maia took this fight on short notice and off a one-sided decision loss to another complete wrestling-based fighter in Colby Covington, so he feels prepared for what he’s going to face. Maia’s edge over Usman is his guile and fighting savvy and he’ll need to all of it to bait Usman into a mistake as this is the only way I see Maia getting his hand raised. He takes this fight with the ambition of surprising the division and earning himself a last gasp Championship opportunity but in my judgement he is overmatched in every aspect of this competition save for his vast fighting experience.
Currently the pricing on Usman is reaching foolish levels for Maia is capable to capitalizing on an Usman mistake should he slip and make one. We’ll allow the parlay playing pukes to continue to push this and report closer to opening bell via @Twitter if this number meets the necessary prerequisites to consider a nominal position on Maia…
Cummings -170 vs. Prazeres +150
This is ‘The big payback’ for Prazeres who in previous fights at 155lbs (Lightweight) blatantly cheated by grossly missing weight in order to win the fight as well is telling us by those repeated attempts to compete at 155 that at 170 he is undersized and many times overmatched. In steps Cummings who is younger, taller, longer than the Brazilian but also has a complete wrestling arsenal capable of keeping this up with take down D or thriving on the mat should it go there. Prazeres is a pip and he gets his ‘big payback’ today.
No play because I missed earlier value on Cummings damnit
Benitez -180 vs. Bandenay +160
Benitez from Mexico is the more polished precision striking fighter who can be tested on the mat. His opponent from Peru is the younger, longer, larger fighter and is a deadly striking based fighter who will probably not choose to make this a maul on the mat. Rather this fight will be decided by who controls the distance to their liking the best. Benitez needs to work inside and Bandenay will want to maintain space in order to deliver lethal and powerful kicks and strikes. This fight opened up about a pick-em which was off as Benitez should be a chalk. That said, Benitez -195 is too high in my judgement. Value play here
Pantoja -115 vs. Moreno +105
I’m surprised Pantoja is chalk here. He did win their first fight as this IS a rematch, but I believe Moreno’s overall fight growth and development since their first match is more substantial and I like the revenge factor. Moreno who by the way opened -170, is longer, taller, more athletic and has reach so he does qualify for mangy mutt status.
Luque -195 vs. LaPrise +180
Luque will have family in attendance. He’s younger, powerful well rounded and sports abundant power. LaPrise is the more technical striker here and will need to weather the early typhoon that will be Luque on the lurch but it’s LaPrise who may be able to control space with his precision striking and take the monster Luque deep into this fight where he has shown a tendency to tire and slow. It’s marathon not a sprint.
Reyes -220 vs. Cannonier +200
Reyes is tall, long, young and incredibly one dimensional. Cannonier is the much smaller man but in past Heavyweight and LHW fights he’s displayed an ability to compete being the much smaller man. I watch Cannonier train and I can tell you all that if he makes it into the second round his speed, explosion and cardio will expose this tall one dimensional yet powerful striker in Reyes.
Cannonier +200 (half)
Suarez -750 vs. Grasso +650
This line is way off based on Suarez’s one dimensional (but lethal) wrestling and Grasso’s striking and edge in experience. Show me.
Grasso +650 lunch money wager