Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 218. We’re in December and racing down to the last handful of fight cards for 2017. We’ll refer to ’17 as the year of the Chalk as to date (counting last night’s TUFF results) Chalk stands 265-111-21 which is a smooth 66.9%.
Selectivity, a practice we preach ad nauseum along with appropriate Due Diligence have allowed us to realize a win rate in 2017 of 45.10% outperforming actual dog results this year....and we're not done for we see a few real ugly mutts on today's slate from the Motor City.
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage. This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time. After all, it’s business).
Teymur -170 vs. Klose +160
Teymur is the taller striking based fighter in this one and he’ll want to fight the kid at distance, use his advance striking skills and try to discourage Klose from getting inside the pocket to make this a grappling grope on the ground. Klose is a talented young fighter who is strong as a country mule, coachable and aware of the opportunity ahead of him. He fights the Swedish ship-in tonight in Detroit where Klose (a native Michigan kid) will have stands full of support. We believe Teymur is a step up in competition but not one Klose can’t overcome for the advantage in tight and on the floor, belong to the younger fighter. We look for a top effort tonight from
Oliviera -120 vs. Felder +110
Line switch. Fortunately, we released Oliviera earlier this week +130 and on the numerous appearances we were able to make this week Oliviera at that time was still an underdog. Felder is a strong striking based fighter who will need to take this fight to Oliviera, try to bully him, crowd him and make this dirty. At all costs Felder needs to keep this fight upright for if this hits the floor he’ll get submitted and shown the door which is exactly what we feel will occur here. Oliviera’s stand up has improved enough to eventually get this fight to the floor where Felder’s ground game is overmatched and underdeveloped.
(pass at current pricing)
Cejudo -295 vs. Pettis +265
Cejudo has had mucho happen to him since the first time he was unable to meet Pettis in the Octagon (hand injury). Pettis is the younger man, a striker who holds advantage in length/reach and through these last month’s took another fight (a dominating win over Moreno) and has carried himself with a confident composure that I feel is a tell for Sergio performing his best tonight against a fighter in Cejudo that will own wrestling advantage yet chooses to rarely use such advantage in his fights. Cejudo best get this to the ground because if he does not we here at GambLou World HQ believe Sergio could piece Henry up in a stand-up affair.
Pettis +265 (half)
Ngannou -220 vs. Overeem +200
We see this as big strong ominous warrior fighter against polished Mixed Martial Artist. Again, we mentioned in every media piece we did this week that we felt that Ngannou has not been tested in his ability to take a clean strike to the snout, fight into the second round or compete with a fighter on the level of skill that Alistair brings to the Octagon after a five-fight stint in the UFC. Now don’t get me wrong here, we feel Ngannou is the future of the division, of the heavyweight division but tonight we feel he earns his PhD. In MMA. Overheem we feel has superior capability everywhere this fight takes place provided he uses his acumen by keeping this at distance and on the floor. Get the big man to the floor, sap his strength then hit him from every angle must be the plan. We think it is.
Overheem +200 (half)
Overheem Inside the Distance +360 (half)
Holloway -280 vs. Aldo +260
While we’re about to recommend a wager on Aldo here it’s because we feel there is great value on him based on the fight and effort we feel he is going to bring tonight. Aldo’s last hurrah is this title shot. He not only fights for his legacy, he fights for that of his gym’s. Nova Uniao was once home to four UFC title holders now none. Brazil in fact currently claims no UFC title holders except for Amanda Nunes and Cyborg in the woman’s bantam and featherweight divisions. Aldo fights for everything tonight but with a full arsenal for we count on seeing him attack Max’s legs tonight which is something missing from his plan last time out. Aldo had Max stunned at times in their first fight before he began to lose steam. The lack of cardio (unusual for Aldo) and lack of leg attack forces us to believe there in fact was an injury in the first fight. Holloway is a true warrior who took this fight without issue and we believe while a capable Champion he could find out tonight that holding the title is far different than capturing it. Aldo’s price is too high for as close a fight as we believe this is going to be.
Aldo +260 (half)
Aldo Inside the Distance + 780 (half)
Profitable Sports Gaming
Ware +210 (half)
Any/all TUFF releases will come via this slate clients. Check back in case we find another live mutt...
Releasing some early positions based on value:
Drakkar Klose now +155
Charles Oliviera +130
full write ups this Saturday plus will be on Wagertalk videos this week using these two