UFC 220 Miocic vs. Ngannou: Boston Gi Party - 1/20/2018
W: 2 L: 3
Win: 40%
Result: +65

Posted 11:52am EST

UFC 220 Miocic vs. Ngannou:  Boston Gi Party

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most anticipated fight card.  Since time began there has been fighting and since fighting began bystanders have begged for big boys to battle.  Tonight’s main event was covered in comprehensive fashion in our article for VSiN (Vegas Stats and Information Network, @VSiNlive on Twitter) earlier this week.  We’ll be offering MMA angles and Intel in a weekly column with VSiN on their weekly publication called “Point Spread Weekly” my column is entitled, “Insight the Octagon”.  I’ll post the column from VSiN here today with the disclosure that “Point Spread Weekly” is a subscription based newsletter.  That sai,d the meager fee associated with this publication is a pittance based on the comprehensive gaming intel provided in each edition.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Here's our “Insight the Octagon” piece (main event) which appeared on Point Spread weekly this past Wednesday 1-17-18.

Welcome to Insight the Octagon.  The goal of these columns will be to breakdown upcoming UFC fights while imparting some of the reasoning behind the releases made.  I approach handicapping as running a business and over the four plus decades ‘investing’ in sporting events I have come to adhere to an ‘underdog’ philosophy whether money line wagering or if utilizing point spreads.  The Money line is used to wager on UFC fights.  Seeking out and embracing the ‘mangy mutt’ (a term used for underdog) is a staple to the business I call Profitable Sports Gaming. 

I released 118 (half-unit or one unit only) UFC positions over the course 2017 (444 total fights). 

2017 results:  54-64 (45.76%), +15.78 total units, ROI 14.18% (average price per release +148). 

My philosophy for profitability in betting the UFC involves employing three fundamentals: comprehensive due diligence; supreme selectivity and regular (public) money management. 

John Crouch, Owner of the MMALab in Glendale, AZ. and former Gracie Academy teaching instructor in an article titled, Technique Talk* says it well when asked what were MMA fighter’s biggest improvements during 2017, “Martial arts and fighting, and pretty much life, comes down to good fundamentals. That's my opinion. I learned good fundamentals where I came from and all great coaches are good fundamentalists*. 

Professional gamblers strive to uncover value in each investment and regard acquiring price advantage over the closing line as critically important.  I work tirelessly to obtain that advantage and will look forward to sharing my insights with Point spread weekly readers.  Investing in underdogs and striving to reach the 50%-win rate is the goal each year so let’s see how 2018 unfolds. 

Miocic +165 vs. Ngannou -190

Stipe Miocic is going to defend his Heavyweight title and shows up to Boston Saturday as the underdog.  His challenger, Francis Ngannou is a monstrously muscled destroyer who employs profuse punching power, stupendous strength and complete confidence in his ability to unplug anyone he pops on the point.  Ngannou has six fights in his just over two years since he joined the UFC and has finished each opponent.  He seems destined to be a star in the UFC and his rapid rise to the height of the division can be explained by his impressive physique, his sensational knockout power and the general lack of talent in the HW division.   But with all that said, we do have reservation about this spot for an inexperienced and more importantly untested Francis Ngannou who’s not been taken into the third round of a UFC fight.  Other than a very young Curtis Blaydes, Ngannou has been set up with perfectly picked pugilists who have acquiesced by engaging with him on the feet without any threat of the take down or even any attempt to stick and move to make the monster utilize energy to try to take him deep into a fight and test his will.  Ngannou at this point in his development is quite one dimensional though that dimension has been effective based on his athleticism, raw power and his opponent’s willingness to stand there with him.  He’s winning by utilizing pure power only and has not been forced to the floor to fight nor has he been chipped yet on the chin.  While explosive early Ngannou’s not particularly quick and he throws as Angelo Dundee would say, ‘Sunday shots’ (because you can see the punches coming from last Sunday).  In my judgement, Ngannou is susceptible to an experienced fighter who can employ defensive tactics, constant movement and precision striking with some wrestling folded in to sap the savage of his strength. The plan must be to take Ngannou deep into a fight to test his conditioning and especially his chin for the man has yet to be busted on the beak.  We feel Miocic or perhaps even a healthy Cain Velasquez are the only Heavyweights capable of presenting a plan that can pose problems for the Predator.

Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic is an underdog in the third defense of his title.  The Champ is a firefighter from Cleveland whose fight arsenal is complete with athleticism, precision punching, power, effective movement and conditioning.  He has the strength and size to stand up to Ngannou, he’s well more experienced than the challenger and has been in the Octagon with the most powerful punchers in the game.  Miocic possesses a complete fight arsenal and must execute a plan to make the monster chase him, he must pump a steady, straight, stinging jab in Ngannou’s face while utilizing movement which hopefully results in Ngannou having to utilize energy to chase, engage and battle.  Miocic must use movement and precision punches to force the power puncher into becoming anxious to engage and therefore render the beast somewhat vulnerable as he forges his way toward Miocic to throw down.  It’s much easier to take an opponent down if said opponent is incoming as it contributes to leverage.  If Miocic can execute then perhaps the challenger gets a bit careless on his way into engagement which may allow Miocic to manage the monster to the mat.  Again, constant movement, accumulated precision punching and eventual take downs are one effective way to battle this beast.  Miocic is well trained and has the support of a champion.  Miocic opened +130 and is now +165.  As in many sporting events the wave of betting action usually shows on the day of the event. 

I like the direction this line is moving and will jump if there is even a penny of price regression but until then I advise patience for the ‘recency theory’ is never more applicable than in the fight game and Ngannou’s demolition of Overeem will have the public picking the Predator.

Miocic +165 or better                    Fight starts Round 2 -105

One note: It’s important to understand that I write these on Mondays each week and UFC events occur mostly on the following Saturday.  Therefore, at times we may ask readers to understand that prices and circumstances may change during the week.  Updated fight information and UFC Insight is available to all at the GambLou.com webpage.  We post all fight releases on the morning of the fights and look forward to sharing our Mixed Martial Arts passion with you here at Point Spread Weekly.

*Article written by Luke Thomas MMA Fighting.com entitled: “Technique Talk: Experts discuss biggest areas of evolution in MMA in 2017”

UFC 220 other releases

Almeida -105 vs. Font -105

Font’s a fighter who’ll come right out and get banging.  He’s got power good range and a solid chin. I believe this fight is going to be a more savage stand-up tussle than chess match which favors Font only for the first four minutes or so.  Almeida who is a consummate slow starter is the younger, more athletic man who’s still improving at the age of 26 while Font (30) is a middle of the division talented fighter trying to step up.  The Brazilian opened -175 and has been in with the top of the Division only losing to Garbrandt and Riviera, two World Class Mixed martial artists.  Almeida and Font will trade but we feel it will Be Almeida who survives this striking affair.

Almeida -105

Davis -135 vs. Bochniak +125

Davis the bigger, longer, younger striker in the cage tonight against a local fighter in Bochniak that has desperation as his motivator for his results have been poor against dubious competition to this point in his UFC run.  This release is a fade of Bochniak who must try to get this fight to the floor to have any chance to win for in the judgement of we here at GambLou.com world HQ Bochniak will feed himself to Davis as Bochniak must find his way inside the Davis reach to make this his fight.  Meanwhile, the high paced, ill-intentioned Davis is going to try to bop Bochniak on the beak on his way in.  Pace, power and pressure are keys to Davis getting his hand raised here.   

Davis -135 (half)

Razak Alhassan -180 vs. Homasi +170

The first fight these two engaged in was stopped by mistake just this past December (Razak Alhassan was awarded a TKO late in round 1 on an unusual looking slip that was mistaken by the Ref as a shut off shot).  In that fight R-A threw everything he had at Homasi who at times was stunned yet forged his way forward into the fracas with the hope of trying to grind the gargantuan swinging Ghanan down and gain control of the fight.  This was beginning to occur when in an exchange the fight was suddenly stopped (no disagreement with stoppage as the way Homasi slipped is a textbook look for Ref to step in).  Razak Hassan’s reaction was that of almost disbelieve coupled with relief and joy. Tonight, this rematch comes down to fight IQ in my estimation for if Razak Hassan goes out as poorly paced as he did in December then he best take Homasi out early. Homasi showed great toughness, grit and determination in December and his camp knows the way to earn this win is to grind the Ghanan down over time then get on top to reign supreme.  Homasi has been hit on the head and put out in his past and Razak Hassan tried to light him up last out. He has power, but does he have the pace and a plan?

Homasi +175 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Miocic +165
Won
Result: +165
ME Starts Rd. 2 -105
Won
Result: +100
Almeida -105
Loss
Result: -100
Davis -135 (half)
Loss
Result: -50
Homasi +175 (half)
Loss
Result: -50


UFC FN 124 - 1/14/2018
W: 0 L: 1
Win: %
Result: -100

Johnson -150 to Choi -180 

2 team parlay

Johnson/Choi +170
Loss
Result: -100


UFC 219 Cyborg vs. Holm: Sin City Submissions - 12/30/2017
W: 3 L: 2
Win: 60%
Result: +195

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the UFC’s last fight card of 2017.  We’ll regard ‘17 the year of the Chalk for Favorites into this last card of the year stand 288-123-23 (66%).  Those that read us often understand that we scorn the market for betting value though we’re known to prefer mangy unwanted underdogs.  Let’s look at a couple of value ridden canines we feel are poised to perform at their best tonight.  We work diligently to uncover live fighters who are prepared to offer their top effort coupled with the fact that they offer betting value.  Here’s what we have for tonight.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Nicolau -220 vs. Smolka +200

Nicolau is the improving fighter off a layoff due to ‘penalty’.  He’s got the pure stand up advantage and he’ll dominate if this stays on the feet.  Smolka is a fighter on the learn and though his last three results have been disappointing he’s seemingly addressed issues, is aware of his dubious position in the organization and sports substantial physical advantages in this fight.  Smolka, who does have advantage on the ground in this match-up must work to eventually smother the striker, force this into a physical flop on the floor and take his control.  He opened +115 and is now a betting value at current pricing.

Smolka +200 (half)

Condit -155 vs. Magny +145

Condit’s been in the retirement game for over a year now and feels the need to return.  He believes he’s improved his BJJ skills since he was shish Ka-bob’ed a year a go by Maia and feels the fire is back and he’s ready to display said new skills.  Condit was a world class fighting competitor and had a most impressive run but his lack of ground skills namely poor take down defense presented issues for him when he fought skilled wrestlers/BJJ fighters.  He’s a stand-up fighter with lethal striking and huge heart.  We believe however that Condit has pondered and executed retirement for a reason and coming out to face a most dangerous wrestling based opponent in Neil Magny seems unwise.  Magny will have dynamic size and reach advantages though he’ll need to utilize those on the feet only long enough to be able to drag Carlos into the clinch or down to the canvass for a crawl n brawl.  Where this fight takes place is a key factor in who’s arm gets raised tonight.  Magny has the skills and ability to get this fight down and make it ugly where he can dominate an old tired saddle.

Magny +145

Calvillo -230 vs. Esparza +210

This is our PhD. In MMA fight.  Calvillo, at thirty is a talented, raw up and comer from the Alpha Male gym.  She has decent wrestling, BJJ but her big advantage over the shorter Esparza is standing and she’ll want the fight to remain on the feet.  Esparza, a dynamic wrestling based ex-Champion has had a long road to return to the top of this division for her stand -up lacked and she was a bit too one dimensional earlier in her career.  In this fight Calvillo will look to hold advantage by making this a striking affair while Carla will want to get inside, grab ahold of the longer fighter and drag her down to the dirt to sap her strength, take top control and try to dominate the fight by making it a grind on the ground.  We feel Esparza’s wrestling and experience provide her advantage. This will be a close split decision type fight, so we look to the Props for our angle in this fight

Esparza pts. Handicap +3.5 +100

Nurmagomedov -275 vs. Barboza +255

Nurmagomedov is a grinding, talented world class sambo/wrestling based freak that when focused and ready is one of the most talented, dynamic fighters alive.  He’s able to overcome his lack of striking acumen by his pure dogged determination to work his way inside, against the fence, on the floor for when he gets his grips on any opponent then forces them to the floor in most every instance he will finish the fight.  In Barboza Nurmey seemingly has a perfect opponent for Barboza’s game is surely suited to stand and strike not wrestle and roll.  Nurmey wants to fight this fight chest to chest and on the floor while Barboza will need to keep distance and try to punish the wrestler as he forces his way inside so he may inflict damage with knee’s, kicks, upper cuts and strikes.  Picture if you will the Matador and the Bull.  This is the type of fight Barboza will have to execute to win.  The key to us picking the mangy mutt here is the fact that this is a three-round fight as well Barboza opened -185 and is now +255.  Does Nurmey get inside to take this down or can Barboza keep distance and pepper the raging bull with bombs?  Barboza’s take down defense and his lethal striking will pose a problem for the Russian.

Barboza +255

Cyborg -345 vs. Holm +315

Title fight and Holly Holm a dynamic counter striking boxing based combatant shows up like a true professional to take on a fighter unequaled in her arena and only eclipsed in MMA dominance by Demetrius Johnson.  Cyborg is mighty, ferocious, well rounded and unequaled in today’s woman’s MMA.  Cyborg much like Nurmagomedov will want to make this fight from inside a closet (typical slang is ‘inside a phone booth’ but today’s readers hardly know what that is LOL). Anyway, Cyborg has the pure power, the striking precision and the ground capability to earn the favorite’s role here and she can dominate via any of those forms.  Holly will need to use her conditioning and legs to control distance and kick, pick and peck the relentless pursuer from every angle as Cyborg strives to get inside to work.  Holly will need Cyborg to eventually become frustrated and use poor judgement in trying to get inside of Holm’s distance control to punish the power puncher.  We feel Holm will show well in this spot and is made to dish Cyborg some situation.  That said we do feel Cyborg finds a way.  Our angle in this fight comes again from the Props for we do feel this fight gets to the Championship rounds….

Cyborg/Holm starts Rd. 4 +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

ME starts Round 4 +100
Won
Result: +100
Esparza pts +3.5 +100
Won
Result: +100
Smolka +200 (half)
Loss
Result: -50
Magny +145
Won
Result: +145
Barboza +255
Loss
Result: -100


UFC fox26 Lawler vs Dos Anjos: Canadian Mount 'ies' - 12/16/2017
W: 3 L: 2
Win: 60%
Result: +150

12-16-17 11:20am EST

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the second to last UFC fight card of 2017.  We’re tickled to see time tick away on ’17 as we have a distaste for the flavor of fanciful Favorites as Fav’s are firing at a 66.4% clip this past year running a breezy 281-119-23.  The numbers speak for themselves, and those chalk results reinforce to us that we must remain selective and hone in on fighters we feel are prepared to offer their best effort on fight night.  In tonight’s card, here are the mutts we find potentially mangy in Manitoba.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Di Chirico -120 vs. Bamgbose +110

These fighters have underachieved to this point.  Tonight, we feel it is Di Chirico whose hand get raised based on his more developed fight arsenal both offensively and defensively.  Bamgbose has a four-minute window where he can inflict serious damage before he slows to a crawl and loses the slim amount of precision punching he possesses.   Provided the taller, younger Italian kid can weather that early storm we feel he’ll eventually immerse the imposter with elbows and perhaps even finish Bamgbose.  Bamgbose needs more time.

Di Chirico -120 (half)

LaPrise -145 vs. Bofando +135

After Bofando’s last performance we chiseled a ‘fade’ in our memory bank moving forward into future match-ups based on his mediocre level of competition and the raw manner which he fought.  While fast, athletic and powerful he is also raw and untested by firm competition.  He steps up into at least firm competition when he tangles with LaPrise a Canadian fighter who is more experienced, more precise in striking and offers a solid ground game which in our view we will witness tonight.   LaPrise will need to weather the furious onslaught that the banger Bofando will bring but once these two get into the meat of the fight we’ll see that the prey is Bofando.

LaPrise -145

Ponzinibbio -165 vs. Perry +155

Potentially a pure punch fest between Ponzi and Perry here makes us all anticipate this one.  Perry is regarded by we at GambLou World HQ as a barroom brawler that is learning the mixed martial arts game and for that reason we view him as a reasonable underdog in this spot.  Ponzi has a more developed mixed martial arts arsenal in every category (except for pure power punching and the capacity of the chin) and he’ll surely embrace the plan laid out earlier by Alan Jouban when he painted Perry from distance and forced the brawler to eat loads of leather.  Perry is tough and determined but must fight from inside the pocket to mask his lack of footwork and tactic.  The cat and mouse in this match-up lies in whether Perry can get Ponzi to brawl while the Brazilian will need to use his legs and keep distance which will allow him to batter the bull on his way inside to brawl.  We like Ponzi here as the more complete fighter, but we do recognize Perry’s potential power, so we must work to minimize exposure here.  We see the winner of this fight stopping the opponent, so we’ll press down the price on Ponzi in this fashion

Ponzinibbio  pts. Handicap -3.5 -120  

Cirkunov -160 vs. Teixeira +150

We believed the original line set for this fight was correct with Glover -155 based on his experience, body of work, boxing ability and floor capability.  Teixeira has been in wars and is 37 years of age, but we feel he is still a top five fighter in the division.  Cirkunov is raw, overly hyped and in for a huge test tonight for he steps way up in class off a brutal early KO in his last outing.  Cirkunov has mucho to prove to himself coming off that KO while Glover is aware that if he simply takes this kid down for a maul on the mat he can effectively drain him of his energy and then eventually paint him into submission via ground and pound, wrestling or striking.  This fight will demonstrate that Cirkunov is not quite ready and Glover is not quite gone.

Teixeira +150

Dos Anjos -115 vs. Lawler +105

We released Lawler +110 yesterday soon after the weigh-ins.  This is another line that has flipped with Lawler opening -155.  We’re always learning in this racket and tonight we’ll surely learn something for we believe the flow of hay on RDA is misplaced.  Lawler is the much larger man with advantage in power, experience, chin and all-day cardio.  While RDA has looked magnificent in the Welterweight division since he moved up from 155  the fact remains that he’ll be giving away advantage in height and length (both legs and arms) against a competent striker with dynamic wrestling ability and take down defense. 

Those feeling Robbie has lost his edge may be correct, but he has not shown that to be the case.  In fact, we believe quite the opposite that RDA is made for Robbie and that he’ll come forward to  press Lawler and smother him which is a plan of attack Lawler has defended in many prior victims.  Lawler at plus money is a value

Lawler +110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 

 

 

 

12-15-17 6:10pm EST

Lawler +110

full write -ups Saturday AM

Lawler +110
Loss
Result: -100
Di Chirico -120 (half)
Won
Result: +100
LaPrise -145
Won
Result: +100
Teixeira +150
Won
Result: +150
Ponzi pts handicap -3.5 -120
Loss
Result: -100


Fishhook from Fresno UFC FN 123 - 12/9/2017
W: 2 L: 2
Win: 50%
Result: +130

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to one the few remaining UFC fight cards for this year.  We here at GambLou HQ are elated that the ’17 tour is about to close for the hordes of fight Fav fanciers have feasted on we disappointed dog dwellers. 

To date (based on our tracking of closing lines) Favorites in the UFC 2017 as 275-114-21 (67%) which is enough to make a grown man yelp.  That said, we believe in our process and while the year has not been banner it has been profitable, so we’ll remain committed to dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and practice precision Money Management for those comprise the fulcrum for Profitable Sports Gaming

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Ramos -410 vs. Gruetzemacher +370

Respect the bookmaker is one of the first lessons one must incorporate when competing with said bookmaker.  Ramos opened a fair Fav at -180 and has been bombed by chalk chasers up to -410.  While Ramos is talented we feel his abilities can wane after a furious five minutes so if Gruetz can weather the early storm and allow his grinding style to kick in his complete cardio does put him in position to pull the rug out from Ramos. ‘Swing it Easy’

Gruetzemacher +370 (half)

Alcantara -190 vs. Perez +175

We believe Alcantara is at the end of a great career and while he looked superb in his submission of Luke Sanders last out it is our belief that he drew to a five while hitting on 16 when he won that fight.  Our reasons for that are the topic of another discussion but we feel Iuri is susceptible to a pressing, forward moving, space eliminating, grinding, wrestling based fighter and that is exactly what Perez is.  Perez is going to complete what Sanders started but didn’t finish.

Perez (Alejandro) +175

Moraes -140 vs. Sterling +130

Here’s the one fight we released early this week.  Moraes is the Brazilian fighter but will want this fight to be a stand-up affair while the American, a wrestling based fighter will absolutely need to get this fight to the mat for his advantage is in the ugly mangy mauling.  This fight sets up as Moraes being a tough hombre early but Sterling’s speed, athleticism and improving strike game should allow him to slow the slugger over time and eventually get this fight into the clasp.  Clasp is one important step for a muck on the mat where Sterling’s size and strength should provide him ample advantage.  Sterling’s been in with tough, strong dynamic fighters and has proven to be a worthy rising talent.  Moraes is at least up to the level of fighter Sterling’s faces so it will take Aljo’s top effort to get his hand raised.  Sterling’s opportunity to prove he is a contender at Featherweight is tonight.

Sterling +130

Swanson -115 vs. Ortega +105

On our appearance this week with Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) on the Fantasy Sports Network (@FNTSYSportsnet) we discussed Ortega vs. Swanson and advised waiting to move on the then -120 for we believed cash on Cub would allow the line (then to gain value….and value it did gain.  Ortega at the time of this writing is +105 and we’ll gladly jump that price.  Swanson’s last war with Choi is a compelling reason we feel the younger, bigger, longer grappling based fighter on the improve is live.  Swanson will require space for his stand up and while he will own a striking advantage it’s attrition that we feel will be the difference in this fight.  A five-round affair is the key for the Ortega plan will mandate that he make Cub effort for the first few rounds to take some of the strength from his legs then get this fight to the floor where Ortega will own tremendous advantage over Swanson and perhaps even finish the proud warrior.   Pass the torch?

Ortega +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

Gruetzmacher +365 half
Loss
Result: -50
Perez Alejandro +175
Won
Result: +175
Sterling +130
Loss
Result: -100
Ortega +105
Won
Result: +105


UFC 218 Holloway vs. Aldo II: Motor City Muay Thai - 12/2/2017
W: 0 L: 5
Win: %
Result: -450

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 218.  We’re in December and racing down to the last handful of fight cards for 2017.  We’ll refer to ’17 as the year of the Chalk as to date (counting last night’s TUFF results) Chalk stands 265-111-21 which is a smooth 66.9%

Selectivity, a practice we preach ad nauseum along with appropriate Due Diligence have allowed us to realize a win rate in 2017 of 45.10% outperforming actual dog results this year....and we're not done for we see a few real ugly mutts on today's slate from the Motor City.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Teymur -170 vs. Klose +160

Teymur is the taller striking based fighter in this one and he’ll want to fight the kid at distance, use his advance striking skills and try to discourage Klose from getting inside the pocket to make this a grappling grope on the ground.  Klose is a talented young fighter who is strong as a country mule, coachable and aware of the opportunity ahead of him.  He fights the Swedish ship-in tonight in Detroit where Klose (a native Michigan kid) will have stands full of support.  We believe Teymur is a step up in competition but not one Klose can’t overcome for the advantage in tight and on the floor, belong to the younger fighter.  We look for a top effort tonight from

Klose +160

Oliviera -120 vs. Felder +110

Line switch.  Fortunately, we released Oliviera earlier this week +130 and on the numerous appearances we were able to make this week Oliviera at that time was still an underdog.  Felder is a strong striking based fighter who will need to take this fight to Oliviera, try to bully him, crowd him and make this dirty.  At all costs Felder needs to keep this fight upright for if this hits the floor he’ll get submitted and shown the door which is exactly what we feel will occur here.  Oliviera’s stand up has improved enough to eventually get this fight to the floor where Felder’s ground game is overmatched and underdeveloped.

Oliviera +130

(pass at current pricing)

Cejudo -295 vs. Pettis +265

Cejudo has had mucho happen to him since the first time he was unable to meet Pettis in the Octagon (hand injury).  Pettis is the younger man, a striker who holds advantage in length/reach and through these last month’s took another fight (a dominating win over Moreno) and has carried himself with a confident composure that I feel is a tell for Sergio performing his best tonight against a fighter in Cejudo that will own wrestling advantage yet chooses to rarely use such advantage in his fights.  Cejudo best get this to the ground because if he does not we here at GambLou World HQ believe Sergio could piece Henry up in a stand-up affair.

Pettis +265 (half)

Ngannou -220 vs. Overeem +200

We see this as big strong ominous warrior fighter against polished Mixed Martial Artist.  Again, we mentioned in every media piece we did this week that we felt that Ngannou has not been tested in his ability to take a clean strike to the snout, fight into the second round or compete with a fighter on the level of skill that Alistair brings to the Octagon after a five-fight stint in the UFC.  Now don’t get me wrong here, we feel Ngannou is the future of the division, of the heavyweight division but tonight we feel he earns his PhD. In MMA.  Overheem we feel has superior capability everywhere this fight takes place provided he uses his acumen by keeping this at distance and on the floor.  Get the big man to the floor, sap his strength then hit him from every angle must be the plan.  We think it is.

Overheem +200 (half)

Overheem Inside the Distance +360 (half)

Holloway -280 vs. Aldo +260

While we’re about to recommend a wager on Aldo here it’s because we feel there is great value on him based on the fight and effort we feel he is going to bring tonight.  Aldo’s last hurrah is this title shot.  He not only fights for his legacy, he fights for that of his gym’s.  Nova Uniao was once home to four UFC title holders now none.  Brazil in fact currently claims no UFC title holders except for Amanda Nunes and Cyborg in the woman’s bantam and featherweight divisions.  Aldo fights for everything tonight but with a full arsenal for we count on seeing him attack Max’s legs tonight which is something missing from his plan last time out.  Aldo had Max stunned at times in their first fight before he began to lose steam.  The lack of cardio (unusual for Aldo) and lack of leg attack forces us to believe there in fact was an injury in the first fight.  Holloway is a true warrior who took this fight without issue and we believe while a capable Champion he could find out tonight that holding the title is far different than capturing it.  Aldo’s price is too high for as close a fight as we believe this is going to be.

Aldo +260 (half)

Aldo Inside the Distance + 780 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

 

 

 

TUFF finals 

Soto +170

Ware +210 (half)

Any/all TUFF releases will come via this slate clients. Check back in case we find another live mutt...

Releasing some early positions based on value:

Drakkar Klose now +155

Charles Oliviera +130

full write ups this Saturday plus will be on Wagertalk videos this week using these two

Klose +155
Loss
Result: -100
Chas. Oliviera +130
Loss
Result: -100
Overheem ITD +360 SU +200 half each
Loss
Result: -100
Aldo +260 su & ITD +780 half each
Loss
Result: -100
Pettis +260 half
Loss
Result: -50


ufc FN 122 Bisping vs. Gastelum: Oriental aggression - 11/25/2017
W: 4 L: 1
Win: 80%
Result: +265

 

Abdurakhimov -120 half
Won
Result: +50
Xiaonan -135
Won
Result: +100
Ottow +170
Loss
Result: -100
Mazany +125 half
Won
Result: +65
Guan +150
Won
Result: +150


“Price is what you pay, Value is what you get”

Mr.Warren Buffet

Our single point of focus is Profitable Sports Gaming. Uncle Louie has been a Profitable Sports Gaming Enthusiast and proponent since 1974.

GambLou.com offers Intelligence and Insight to those attempting to consistently Profit in Sports Gaming. If your goal is to break the Makers, we are not for you but if your goal is to matriculate profits on a regular basis then you will find our advice worthy.

We offer 36+ years of street level gaming experience to our Enthusiasts and we consult with some of the soundest connections in the gaming business as a matter of Daily Practice.

GambLou.com delivers a combination of “ logical calculation” and “ Gut Feel” in analyzing any Profitable Sporting opportunity understanding that the fulcrum of our success is found in the strict adherence of three critical business practices: dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and precise Money Management.

GambLou is a resource designed to increase one's gaming acumen whether gaming novice or experienced opinion maker.We work diligently to realize bottom line profits.

www.GambLou.com - Profitable Sports Gaming

  

View Archives

  January 2018
  December 2017
  November 2017
  October 2017
  September 2017
  August 2017
  July 2017
  June 2017
  May 2017
  April 2017
  March 2017
  February 2017
  January 2017
  December 2016
  November 2016
  October 2016
  September 2016
  August 2016
  July 2016
  June 2016
  May 2016
  April 2016
  March 2016
  February 2016
  January 2016
  December 2015
  November 2015
  October 2015
  September 2015
  August 2015
  July 2015
  June 2015
  May 2015
  April 2015
  March 2015
  February 2015