Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

Super Bowl LVIII: 49’ers vs. Chiefs profitable positions & props

I have always maintained the NFC/AFC Championship weekend was the official end of my NFL season and I still adhere to that. However, the evolution of the game, most especially the props market have added dimension and opportunity to Super Bowl Betting.

While I will maintain that one’s NFL profit needs to be secured BY the Super Bowl, I also maintain that there can be advantage in the prop market as well sides.

So let me share some of my client releases and my “Square as hell” releases for this game.

Fade, Follow or Fuggazi here we go!

Serious wagers made last week (prices may not still be available)

Niners -120 Money line 1u

Kittle Over 46.5 -120 yards receiving 1u

McCaffery -240 yards rushing vs. Pacheco 1.2u outlay

Under 48.5 -120 .6u

Niners Over 23.5 points +104 .5u

McCaffrey Over .5 TD -135 1u outlay

Kelce Over .5 TD -120 1u outlay

Pacheco Over .5 TD +105 1u outlay

Purdy Under 31.5 pass attempts -130 .65u outlay

Over 3.5 total field goals +120 .6u outlay

Square Bets…I mean real square but I have made the Tails and Odd game final result or some 45 plus years! Old habits die hard lol

Coin toss: Tails +100 1u

Final score odd -105 1u

There you have it sports enthusiasts…and remember that the UFC is in full metal position to capture the attention of sports bettors once this most public game is completed.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, NFL, Profitability, UFC

GambLou 2023 Profitability report; NFL Championship opening lines

This week the AFC and NFC Championships will be contested. As we close down the end of the NFL year let’s take a look at opening lines for these games and review GambLou.com profitability.

At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas: Baltimore opened -3.5ev with a total of 45.5 while in San Francisco, the 49ers came -7 and 52.

These prices may not move too much for numerous reasons this week however I will be tracking the line movement for any opportunities.

GambLou.com 2023 NFL Clients stand 61 and 61, +2.94units representing a 2%ROI

Future wagers released at the beginning of the season that have NOT been recorded yet:

Chiefs Under 11.5 season wins +120; 1.5unit W

Chiefs Under 10.5 season wins +220; .5unit L

Washington Over 6.5 wins +100 1unit L

Houston to win AFC South +220 .35unit W

Houston to win AFC 20/1 .15unit L

Baltimore to win AFC +375 .5unit pending

I’ll invest into the Championship round then into the Super Bowl.

Beating the NFL is no easy task but with the Ravens position pending and a strong Championship performance I look to enhance profitability for myself and all clients.

——————————————–

As January ends my focus becomes exclusively UFC profitability while NHL Stanley Cup Due Diligence is in full swing.

Last year NHL profitability: 55-46 +25.20units for a 29% ROI

After two UFC events in 2024 GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast Members are 3-5 +.23units for 4%ROI with 3 favorites in upcoming cards earning members Plus money (Yes, that’s correct) and two releases holding positive value based on the pricing today. I’m playing a different game than the hordes making ‘picks’ and selling their swag.

At GambLou.com Investing on select sporting events is strictly Business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

NFL Defenses dominating but for how much longer?

The overwhelming Under trend we’re experiencing in the NFL..

By now we’re getting (or are about to be) bombarded with the NFL Under results thus far this season as Under’s stand 56-36-1 60.9%* after six weeks of NFL competition.

Most are bewildered by the stats but in reality, it’s not difficult to understand this early trend of sputtering offenses.

Offensive lines primarily as well total offensive units rely on timing, synchronicity and precision to operate efficiently especially in today’s timing required NFL passing environment.

With little to no practice time and even less time hitting, sweating and competing with intensity in the preseason these teams are finding themselves offensively just about now. It takes time.

Do not overreact with the Under trend people because it’s likely regression begins and I believe it begins this week in select contests.

Do not think there is something unknown going on here rather we absolutely know what’s the cause of this defensive domination.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

*Thanks Dave Tuley @ViewfromVegas

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

NFL musing and abusing!

The Chicago Bears organization is owned by a respectable, honorable, ethical family in the McCaskey’s. That said, the foundation of Bear futility and frustration is the responsibility of that same ownership. These are upstanding, fine people but they’re inept at Sports Ownership in the year 2023.

Speaking of Chicago looks like old childhood Chicagoan Sean Peyton is making a return to the windy city this week with his Bronco’s. The Bears may make the Bronco’s look like world beaters!

Freak alert: Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel, Don Parham Jr, Kyle Juszczyk yep, he’s a freak, Micah Parsons, Chris Jones, the Bosa’s… more later.

Mad Scientist alert: Mike McDaniel

Trevor Simien? GTHOH

NFL GOAT turned stand-up comedian: Bill Belichick

How about the 70 burger Miami hung on the Broncos. If you don’t like a team running it up on you….stop them.

Speaking of the Bronco’s did that team quit last week?

The Browns best be beaten early here because in a few games that QB may find his legs and if he does then it’s going to be rough sledding in the AFC North.

A top 50 football player of all time? Derrick Henry without question.

Packers 18- Saints 17 a couple mediocre squads.

Bolts 28- Vikes 24 A couple of gutless squads….no issues with their signal callers though.

I don’t believe in the Jags, Bolts, Falcons or Pack but I want to believe in the Fish, Hawks, Brownies and Commies. I do believe in the Raven but how is it that each year that team is decimated with injury?

Poke’s went to Arizona to get demoralized. Let’s see how Mikey has them prepped off the bounce against the Goat this week.

Niners, Chiefs, Eagles are a level above a handful of others…. In that second tier however are teams that may bust they’re way up!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: UFC sweep!

This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!

‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.

2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)

It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!

My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.

Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, NFL

Discipline

“You will never have a greater or lesser dominion than that over yourself…the height of a man’s success is gauged by his self-mastery; the depth of his failure by his self-abandonment. …And this law is the expression of eternal justice. He who cannot establish dominion over himself will have no dominion over others.”
― Leonardo da Vinci

Today’s Profitable Sports Gaming offering revolves around discipline.

Yes, discipline is often discussed but rarely practiced.

The best example is to look at the month of June/July. There’s oh so little to bet on so does one look to hardball, WNBA or because you love football does one begin to shop there?

Those benefiting moist from bettors making college football, NFL positions prior to the season are bookmakers.

Injury, trade, suspension, team developments etc. all may affect your bet especially and most specifically if you are betting any over or ANY positive outcome for player or team.

Rather, let the fools and those starved for action follow the pundits on the airwaves who are only on to make releases and fuel interest in betting when in fact there is little.

We are aware that the sportsbooks own/sponsor/support both VSiN and the Sportsgrid outfits, eh?

My advice is this:

Use your brain, do your own work and find a strong independent voice somewhere that you can trust to bounce ideas off of. At the end of the day, YOU are responsible for your end of year profitability.

Practice discipline NOW to enhance profit long term as opposed to looking for ‘action’ now and impeding your profitability over the long haul!

It’s business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

Dog days of Summer: Conduct your own Due Diligence!

After a couple of days down post College World Series my attention turns to NFL due diligence to supplement my UFC handicapping.

In July I conduct the many hours of research I require to profit in the NFL.

For the most part, I turn the VSiN’s and Sportsgrid’s OFF during this month so I can pollute my mind with my own due diligence and study. I want my thoughts formed based on my due diligence THEN I’ll work to try to break those down or fortify them in order to determine if they offer advantage or not.

I track opening numbers and the crazy, wild swings created by knuckleheads making early wagers foolishly (almost all early NFL wagers are foolish especially any positive ones) where injury, trade or other development can only thwart one’s chances of realizing a win with the bet.

Listen, the Bookmakers love these June/July betting shows that shower people with all kinds of NFL betting advice from ‘experts’ because it mostly results in a drove of knuckleheads making a foolish wagers or early wagers. Again, they’re damn near the same.

Now are their professionals in the marketplace who do and can hold advantage over NFL numbers early in the process? Of course, there are.

But they aren’t on those shows and they aren’t sharing their wagers with you until they beat to hell the advantage on the team. So, my best advice is to conduct your own research.

It’s this formula that will make you a professional.

Now, if you can’t perform your own due diligence because of time constraints etc. then you may simply consider trusting me because I do my own work and win on my own. I’m also here to bounce ideas off of.

At the end of the day, I don’t need no stinking pundits telling me who to take ‘over the number’ in June when there’s nothing but disadvantage to the wager!

Rather, I’ll look to any potential UNDER bets because in that scenario the injury/malady/suspension only adds advantage to any position taken! It’s really not the ‘modeling rocket science’ many numbers nerds make it out to be.

Stay here for more NFL, UFC and Profitable Sports Gaming thought as we approach the 2023 NFL campaign!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming