This week’s UFC LV87 production will take place at the APEX center in Las Vegas where the smaller 25’ cage will be utilized for athletes competing in front of just a handful of attendees.

Many feel that the lack of a packed house decreases excitement in UFC cards, though I am one who begs to differ. Any location that two motivated, focused, elite mixed martial artists decide to compete with one another is fine by me because fans do not make the fight, athletes especially in confined quarters do!

In the last two events, favorites have realized a 20-4 tally which manifests itself into bettors being affected by the ‘recency’ of favorite success. In a card where all but three bouts are lined with Favorites of -200 or greater, I look for select underdogs to be live….

Last week in Anaheim flyweight contender Brandon Royval upset former champion Brandon Moreno in a five round split decision that was not as close as the judging indicated.

My release of Royval/Moreno starts round 4 -175 earns digital fight enthusiasts another unit of profit. 2024 UFC profitability: 3-3 +1.85u

Shamil Gaziev -165 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +145 heavyweight (265lbs) main event

Undefeated Dagestani Gaziev steps into this main event as an athlete with only one UFC bout under his belt, which is unusual.

He opened -160, has a couple of inches of height advantage in this bout as well he is going to be the athlete cutting weight to make the 266-pound weight maximum.

Gaziev’ past performances show a balance of finishing ability and stamina even though he’s faced only nominally talented foes. His one UFC win came over an athlete in Martin Buday who held experience over the Dagestani but who had faced journeyman competition himself.

Gaziev is regarded as favorite here because he’ shown the ability to grapple effectively and carry power in his hands based on his Buday finish.

‘Bigi Boi’ Rozenstruik enters this bout 7-5 in UFC competition defeating low level foes but being defeated by fighters securely positioned in the top seven of the division.

Rozenstruik holds firm advantages in UFC experience, level of athletes faced and striking diversity as he is a specialized world class kickboxing talent. The athlete from Suriname prefers to keep fights standing at every cost and try to finish opponents via his striking/kicking which is displayed in his willingness to take fights immediately to any/all foes.

Against lower levels of heavyweight combatants this blueprint is successful yet against the elite it falters because of Rozenstruik’s lack of a well-rounded, complete fight arsenal namely he has little ability to stop the takedown.

The question to be asked is will Gaziev be able to take this bout to the mat where Rozenstruik is susceptible to being dominated or will he try to strike with the South American slugger?

In a fight where the total is 1.5Rds. with the under lined -190 one may handicap Rozenstruik via KO/TKO or Gaziev via submission as logical results.

The prop “fight does NOT start round 3” -300 cannot be a potential consideration because of the exorbitant price so let us keep this week’s release simple:

Gaziev -165

Muhammad Mokaev -375 vs. Alex Perez +300 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Last week’s Flyweight main event of Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval was a rematch. What that fight demonstrated was how shallow the talent pool is in the flyweight division as after champion Alexandre Pantoja, there is Royval then Moreno and all three have competed against each other numerous times.

New blood in this division takes the form of up-and-coming talent Mokeav who is 10-0 professionally and has won all five of his UFC bouts.

His last fight, a third-round submission of crafty veteran Tim Elliot seemed proof that the twenty-tree year old Mokaev has the youth, size, wrestling ability and athleticism to break into the top five of this division.

His opponent, thirty-one-year-old Alex Perez is an experienced veteran of the UFC sporting a 24-7 record. However, Perez’s last win came in 2020 and he has simply two fights since that time.

In each of those bouts he faced elite level talent (Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo) but in each of those bouts he was submitted in the first round. His fight against Pantoja occurred in July of last year.

Perez has advantages of experience in this fight as well, he has faced more potent competition but at his age and with his low level of activity this bout seems pretty set up to display Mokaev’s abilities.

Five of Perez’s seven losses have come via submission. Meanwhile Mokaev has submitted his last three UFC competitors and seven of ten professional fighters faced.

This is a set-up fight designed to propel Mokaev to the top of this weight class to inject potent, young talent into a flyweight division that is in real need of aspiring talent.

Mokaev opened -255 and has ballooned to current pricing. Look for Mokaev to shine Saturday.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. pick-em.

I lean to the over as Perez must understand that his career is on the line here and he needs to make this a competitive bout.

Friday midday the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast which features all my official releases drops. GambLou.com is the only place to access those releases.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the Saturday morning scraps!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming