Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov: Like Grant through Ismagulov!

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov!

This week I’m posting ‘Bout Business Podcast UFC releases on the GabLou.com webpage as backup because I am unable to complete the podcast today.

Last week we enjoyed a banner result profiting 4.77u.

2023 profitability stands: 50-47 +14.98u 15% ROI

Both Topuria -330 and Allen -215 delivered on the second legs of parlays. We had each fighter in underdog positions.

I will be very aggressive moving forward in scouring for parlay positions that are set up between a couple of different fight cards. I like how that works for us.

Speaking of that, we lost the Della Madellena vs. Brady bout. Therefore our 1.0u +123 outlay becomes a simple win returning .48u. I’ll use the .48 profit on this card since those wagers are all now graded.

That leaves Covington -110 and Alexa Grasso +195 as our sole future positions along with the Randy Brown/Jalin Turner +111 parlay that will mature next week after that fight.

Ok here’s this week’s releases:

Round 1

Ivana Petrovic -215 vs. Luana Carolina +175

Carolina is a long tall Brazilian striking based fighter who packs little power and produces little by way of volume in her attack. It’s usual that Carolina is fending off incoming pressure from wrestlers/grapplers who understand that the way to defeat Carolina is to get her on her back where she is unable to get up or defend herself.

In debuting fighter Ivana Petrovic we have the exact form of fight style that is designed to give Carolina fits. In fact, I really view this as a set up fight designed to make Petrovic look good.

Petrovic -215/Moreno -195 +121 1u

Leg 2 of the parlay is Brandon Moreno -195. Moreno is on next week’s fight card.

Round 2:

Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 vs. Kevin Lee +180

Rinat’s an authentic Russian vice grip, but he’s stepping up in class for this bout. Kevin Lee’s going to be a desperate fighter who knows he’s been set in with someone the organization wants to test him with.

This is a fight that in his first stint in the UFC would be too much for lee at 170lbs. Now, I don’t think it is, in fact, I like Lee in this spot.

Lee +180 .6u

Lee decision +340 .4u

Round 3

Ismael Bonfin -320 vs. Benoit St. Denis +260

Bonfin is an explosive Brazilian hand grenade. He’s short, stocky, explosive, powerful and primarily a striker. In this one St. Denis, who is getting appropriate credit for showing toughness in a previous bout against Elizeo dos Santos is NOT getting enough credit for his power striking, size, his grappling advantage and the way he enters this bout off two UFC wins.

Key to this fight will be St. Denis surviving the first round then being able to inflict his size and grappling onto the inflated but most dangerous Bonfin brother.

St. Denis +260 .5u

Round 4

Morales -260 vs. Max Griffin +215

Morales a tall, powerful, twenty-year old Ecuadorian enters this fight looking to keep his momentum rolling. Morales coming off contender series, has two first round finishes entering this his third UFC bout.

Morales steps up in this fight, one that I view similarly to the Rinat and Lee bout.

Morales has shown great talent and ability but, in a situation, where he steps up in class considerably against a fighter as capable as Griffin forces me to have to make Mr. Morales prove to me that he is up for this much increase in the ability of his foe.

Griffin is pissed and he took his anger on this matchup (he saw this match-up as it is, a potential set-up fight for Morales) in training. He’s focused on making sure the UFC understands his abilities after the results of this bout are completed.

I like Griffin here because I believe I’ll get his absolute best effort and he’s the more versed well-rounded athlete and I believe we’ll see some wrestling from him.

Griffin +215 .5u

Round 5

Damir Ismagulov -105 vs. Grand Dawson -115

I released Dawson +110 earlier in the week when I could see his underdog position melting away.

Ismagulov lost his last bout to Tsarukyan then retired because of health in family issues. A month later, he’s back. Bad sign as far as I am concerned. Then Ismagulov claimed he did not train for Tsarukyan but he has for this fight.

I think Ismagulov is showing some slow regression in his quickness, his crispness in the cage and his ability to defend aggressive forward pressing wrestlers especially.

In Grant Dawson we get an ascending fighter who is displaying great progress with his relationship with Mike Brown and Florida’s ATT.

Dawson is still growing; he’s an unrelenting pressing wrestling grappling machine and I believe he will be able to smother Ismagulov’s space (Ismagulov so wants to be in striking battles) then clasp onto the Russian in order to force this fight to the floor where from top position Dawson can reign damage.

Dawson +110 1u

as released earlier this week

Thank for reading Fight Enthusiasts. Next week we’ll be back on the airwaves but it sure is nice to have the webpage back!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, NFL

Discipline

“You will never have a greater or lesser dominion than that over yourself…the height of a man’s success is gauged by his self-mastery; the depth of his failure by his self-abandonment. …And this law is the expression of eternal justice. He who cannot establish dominion over himself will have no dominion over others.”
― Leonardo da Vinci

Today’s Profitable Sports Gaming offering revolves around discipline.

Yes, discipline is often discussed but rarely practiced.

The best example is to look at the month of June/July. There’s oh so little to bet on so does one look to hardball, WNBA or because you love football does one begin to shop there?

Those benefiting moist from bettors making college football, NFL positions prior to the season are bookmakers.

Injury, trade, suspension, team developments etc. all may affect your bet especially and most specifically if you are betting any over or ANY positive outcome for player or team.

Rather, let the fools and those starved for action follow the pundits on the airwaves who are only on to make releases and fuel interest in betting when in fact there is little.

We are aware that the sportsbooks own/sponsor/support both VSiN and the Sportsgrid outfits, eh?

My advice is this:

Use your brain, do your own work and find a strong independent voice somewhere that you can trust to bounce ideas off of. At the end of the day, YOU are responsible for your end of year profitability.

Practice discipline NOW to enhance profit long term as opposed to looking for ‘action’ now and impeding your profitability over the long haul!

It’s business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

Dog days of Summer: Conduct your own Due Diligence!

After a couple of days down post College World Series my attention turns to NFL due diligence to supplement my UFC handicapping.

In July I conduct the many hours of research I require to profit in the NFL.

For the most part, I turn the VSiN’s and Sportsgrid’s OFF during this month so I can pollute my mind with my own due diligence and study. I want my thoughts formed based on my due diligence THEN I’ll work to try to break those down or fortify them in order to determine if they offer advantage or not.

I track opening numbers and the crazy, wild swings created by knuckleheads making early wagers foolishly (almost all early NFL wagers are foolish especially any positive ones) where injury, trade or other development can only thwart one’s chances of realizing a win with the bet.

Listen, the Bookmakers love these June/July betting shows that shower people with all kinds of NFL betting advice from ‘experts’ because it mostly results in a drove of knuckleheads making a foolish wagers or early wagers. Again, they’re damn near the same.

Now are their professionals in the marketplace who do and can hold advantage over NFL numbers early in the process? Of course, there are.

But they aren’t on those shows and they aren’t sharing their wagers with you until they beat to hell the advantage on the team. So, my best advice is to conduct your own research.

It’s this formula that will make you a professional.

Now, if you can’t perform your own due diligence because of time constraints etc. then you may simply consider trusting me because I do my own work and win on my own. I’m also here to bounce ideas off of.

At the end of the day, I don’t need no stinking pundits telling me who to take ‘over the number’ in June when there’s nothing but disadvantage to the wager!

Rather, I’ll look to any potential UNDER bets because in that scenario the injury/malady/suspension only adds advantage to any position taken! It’s really not the ‘modeling rocket science’ many numbers nerds make it out to be.

Stay here for more NFL, UFC and Profitable Sports Gaming thought as we approach the 2023 NFL campaign!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball

CWS final: LSU vs. Florida game 3

Ok Hardballers, we’re into the final CWS tilt with a Florida 10/1 active, we won’t walk away from this tourney without a little bottom line.

The wind and the ballpark do this every year. We were able to profit our way out of early loss with a solid run on the under’s and we had little sweat with them or the single Over we bet last evening.

I knew to take early tourney wagering light but next year I may take it even lighter.

As far as tonight is concerned, LSU has the fans in Omaha, the bettors nationally and most in baseball believing that they should be the favored team tonight. To me it sets up well for the Gators.

The coaching approach in the Florida dugout is well easier. The Gator coaches, players and contrarian gamblers are of the few who believe the Gators can David this goliath.

Tonight’s release:

LSU -128 (BOL)

5u to win 3.9u

Final Tournament scenario:

If LSU wins tonight profit is: 2.03u

If Florida wins tonight profit is: 3.13u

You as gamblers may manipulate the cover of the Florida 10/1 bet in any capacity you choose if you choose to do it at all! I believe Florida will upset the Tiger jello shots!

It’s now up to you to maneuver your own positions. The way I attack Profitable Sports Gaming is to make deposits and either way after tonight’s game that’s exactly what I’ll do.

Thank you for your trust and the ability for GambLou.com to contribute to San Xavier Mission!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, UFC

College World Series Final & UFC ABC5

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to today’s coverage of the UFC ABC5 card which kicks off at 8:30 am followed up by the Championship Series game 1 in the College World Series between Florida and LSU.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for this card.

Access the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then hit the link to be directed straight to the podcast!

College World Series members hold Florida 10/1 future tickets, all CWS member information can be accessed by going to the ‘CWS’ page.

We’re approaching the end of June which marks the commencement of my NFL research.

The NFL is a specialty for me. any interested parties can check out my NFL consulting page for more information, references etc.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball

Stanley Cup Results NCAA College World Series

Welcome profit enthusiasts to Thursday June 15th I’d like to just publicize final Stanley Cup Tournament accounting before we move into the NCAA baseball Tournament.

Final Stanley Cup Tournament Profitability:

55-49 +25.20u 29% ROI  (+133)

I released every position publicly and live before all the games went off and I recorded every wager. The point is to display that deriving profit in sports wagering is not only possible, for me it’s a practice.

It may not be as easy as I made it look in this tourney but it’s possible provided the handicapper conducts the required due diligence to realize these results.

College World Series

The College World Series Tournament is a joy to watch and work. Any interested in a CWS package can access the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of the webpage for membership info.

Parties interested may get the remainder of the tournament for a reduced fee as I’ll have to tailor future positions for late signees as current members are alive to 4 future positions currently.

Questions? Need advice? Lou@gamblou.com

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers game 5

Puck profitability: 53-45; +22.67u; 28%ROI; (+1.35)

Game 5

Let me be clear that from the start of this series that my system was shouting Golden Knights and my heart, which by the way is NEVER involved in how I break down any investment matter, was all about the Panther.

I think that between what the kid Tkachuk and master motivator Maurice have done in Florida that I have become supportive of their efforts and I still yearn for a seven-game series.

Looking across the ice, this LVGK bunch is absolutely Cup worthy and what the organization has done in six years is amazing no matter how this series ends. Front office prowess, keen coaching, deep talented teams and home game theatrics are a Vegas trademark.

What Vegas has created in six years a handful of NHL teams could only dream of doing. In fact, there must be plenty of envy among the Buffalo’s and Toronto’s of the puck world that can’t seem to understand that one must play insular hockey if you want your city to hoist!

I congratulate the Las Vegas Golden Knights not only for their success this year but well more importantly for what they’ve done for this sport of Hockey in a gambling sense these last seven years.

Here’s a true story.

One day seven years ago before the Cup Final series but after VSiN had launched I was going onto the air with Matt Youmans to break down the CWS and Stanley Cup.

When Youmans asked then guest Sportsbook director Jimmy Vaccaro if he got “any play in the CWS or hockey”, Jimmy’s response was a dead pan “no” as he walked off the set!

My, my how far has Puck passion come in seven years!

I’m tickled for Golden Knight Cup success because I make a living on this sport and to see hockey thrive, grow and seed passion comes second only to profiting on it.

Tonight, we’ve earned cheese and we’re going to spend some:

Florida +180 and rising .5u

Panthers opened +140 which is higher than game 1 and 2 so the ‘Makers knew what they were lining….. now it’s +180 with Tkachuk out. Wait then jump the best price.

Over 6 ev .5u

Tally’s tonight

 

Florida series +850 .25u

Just win this game 5…

Oh, and have I mentioned our Marchessault +700 ticket?

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

Stanley Cup Final Florida vs. Las Vegas: What do the Hockey gods say?

To me it’s as simple as the hockey gods.

Yes, the hockey gods have a say in what happens on the ice in a Cup final and with regard to the Golden Knights, it’s my take that that while that the team and the players comprising it are most deserving, their fans and the city surely are not.

It takes some historical perspective to make my comment understandable. Take for instance, Toronto who have been through so much strife trying to simply GET to a Cup final. Then what about the Sabres fans in Buffalo, they’ve been mired in puck mediocrity for decades. I could go on….

Bottom line is this, the Knights won’t win the Cup because they don’t have the team to do it but that their fans and city have simply not served the appropriate time in order to earn it. If you don’t believe me just watch the rest of the series……Vegas have not served the time to earn the Cup.

I believe Panther legs are about to become what they needed to be three games ago when this series began and I believe the team that wins this game 4 tonight will win the Stanley Cup!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General

Belmont Stakes

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop 2pm PT. Access the UFC tab then hit the link to be directed tot he podcast.

OK Horse players below is Shue’s early week input on the Belmont:

I’m still on ANGEL OF EMPIRE (7-2) 100%!  As we know, the best horse doesn’t always win the Derby (see Epicenter last year) – but this nag can run.  He got stuck behind a wall of horses in the Derby.

He should shine at a mile & a half.  And don’t go to sleep on RED ROUTE ONE (15-1) either – another nag who suffered from that awful pace in the Preakness – but this lil guy can close!  In a nutshell – that’s all I have this early in the week

Now here’s Shue’s final comments on the Belmont:

Well, hmmmm, #3 ARCANGELO (8-1) is now on my radar.

I’m still on the #8 ANGEL OF EMPIRE (7-2), I just think he is the best horse.  And I will have some juice on #9 RED ROUTE ONE (15-1).  And will now have to include Arcangelo in there somewhere.  The field no doubt will be over-boxed because so few nags are entered. So not much payoff if the chalk hits.

But should an 8-9-3 hit the wire in that order, then it’s cashing time.  Good luck and have a great day!

I’ll use Shue’s three nags in an exacta box for $10.00 and a trifecta box for $5.00. 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

Stanley Cup game 3 Florida vs. Las Vegas

Tonight, we discover if the Florida Panthers can activate their frenetic playoff feet and earn victory over a deep, formidable ‘from the goal out’ Golden Knight group.

As I mentioned prior to the series, a sure momentum changer and the perfect way to quell a red hot netminder is to give him more than a week off before the Stanley Cup Final. Florida must find a way to ‘believe’ once they can sip a little belief this whole series can change…just as the Bruins who were in command of their series with the panthers before Florida found their legs.

From the beginning of this series my head said, Vegas and over, I see little reason to stray from that. My system has the Knights +108 as a play tonight and I’ve not strayed all playoff season from what my model has advised….so I simply can’t get cute now even though I really want to see a six or seven game competitive Stanley Cup Final.

Who knows maybe the model we’ve been riding blows a lug nut but the play is..

Over 6 -110 1u outlay

Go Panthers