Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje II: Diamond in the tough

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday early PM PT.

This article was originally published on VSiN’s digital magazine 7/26

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 217 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division where second ranked Dustin Poirier faces third ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.

Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125 Middleweight (155lbs.) main event

I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.

What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized then that his ‘go for broke’ fight style, though entertaining for fans had to be refined and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division.

Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.

Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.

In Gaethje’s last fight we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight Gaethje displayed his fight evolution for he came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.

Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018 and to an extent I believe that to be true.

For Poirier there only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand has raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise, striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.

Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him THE threat to the title in my opinion should he get his hand raised here.

A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.

Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 take downs per fight and he defends 63% of takedown attempts.

A well-rounded approach.

Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38 but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no take down attempts in his bouts though he’s got a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns.

A singularly dimensioned approach.

Both men, after losing to Oliveira had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.

It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the ‘natural born brawler’ in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and ‘Poirier-like’ in his approach.

My question, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?

This fight opened Poirier -125

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -130

This total surprised me based on the fact that these two went a ferocious four plus rounds in their first fight.

Each man seems to be entering this fight more dangerous as mixed martial artists than when they first fought despite the five-year gap in bouts.

The point spread of ‘Poirier -5.5 points -105’ most surprises me as this seems to indicate a relatively one-sided fight favoring Poirier.

I handicap this fight as very tight early but as the minutes elapse wears Poirier’s speed, precision, power, cardio and footwork will be the differentiating factors in this bout.

Poirier via KO, Submission or DQ +130

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs. Alex Pereira +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Brazilian Pereira we last saw being KO’d By Israel Adesanya in their rematch at middleweight this past April after KO’ing the then champion in the fifth round of their first bout.

Pereira moves up to the 205lb. weight class for obvious reasons. He walks around at 225-230lbs. normally. The cut to 185 made him a monster to face on fight day but as Adesanya displayed this past April, that cut took too much away from the Brazilian stalwart thus this move up.

Weight class or not Pereira, a decorated, elite, world class kickboxer is relatively inexperienced in the MMA realm as his 7-2 record indicates.

He was profoundly powerful and dangerous at the middleweight level and his power will more than translate to light heavyweight.

What he may have issues with are the size of combatants he’ll face as well foe’s whose fight arsenal is equipped with world class grappling and wrestling are sure to provide Pereira with plenty of challenge for his area of improvement is surely grappling.

In ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, we have a relatively understated Polish killing machine trained in Judo, dangerous on his feet and decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Blachowicz has been in with the likes of Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira (Pereira’s coach and mentor) and Thiago Santos, so he’s prepared for structured, physical foes like Pereira.

What Blachowicz offers as his most valued asset in this fight is his well-rounded fight ability.

He can compete at a world class level anywhere this fight goes. Blachowicz’s certain edge in the grappling/wrestling department provide him the means to get his hand raised in this bout.

He’ll need to press and tax the Brazilian striker from the opening bell and try to back him up. Blachowicz does not benefit in any way by remaining at distance too long.

For Blachowicz, eliminating distance from Pereira, smothering him, clasping onto him, clinching then pressing him against the fence are signals he’s got the fight working by his parameters because the next move from fence is floor and once there this fight becomes Blachowicz’s to lose.

In summary, Blachowicz wants to fight forehead to forehead, then chest to chest while his Pereira must maintain distance in order to be effective with those long, vicious, damaging, knee’s, teeps, elbows and fists.

Blachowicz opened -145 for this fight because he is the experienced light heavyweight with more diverse weaponry. We’ve seen his price drop a bit leading into the week which in my estimation makes the Blachowicz side an interesting proposition.

Monitoring

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Under -185

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. All my final releases can be found there. I’ll also appear on VSiN’s ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday 5:30AM PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories General

Money Morning Profitability

This week UFC profitability took a hit although the deficit could have been much worse. GambLou ‘Bout Business results stood 1-5 -2.72u. Fortunately I felt the risk in both Diakiese and Herbert so the .5 unit outlays saved us some money.

The lone win was our Aspinall parlay but what goes unrecorded is the Daniel Marcos victory that sets us up with Jon Jones +117 in his upcoming title bout with stipe Miocic. Jones is currently -375 for that bout.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 59-58 +15.34u 13% ROI (+125)

I have released the first NFL Season total positions to clients.

Any interested NFL business people please hit the ‘NFL’ tab at the top of this webpage to see the opportunity I offer any interested in 2023 NFL profitability.

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Aspinall vs. Tybura: London flog

  • GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop this morning 10am PT ish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first bell for London England’s UFC Fight Night this Saturday rings at 12pm EST/9am PST stateside so be prepared fight enthusiasts.

Fifteen of the thirty athletes on this card are of English, Irish, Scottish, Spanish or French heritage, an important aspect to these bouts and only two fights feature fighters competing outside of Europe.

The last London fight card was this past March. On that card we witnessed welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his title against Kamau Usman but more importantly, we witnessed the European athletes succeed in 9 of their twelve bouts.

Many fight enthusiasts feel the UFC in its zeal to expand its product often presents certain local competitors’ ‘favorable’ matchups. You may include me in that many but with that said the potential advantage lies not in siding with the locals but on handicapping which one it will be that may falter!

Tom Aspinall -490 vs. Marcin Tybura +370 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Tenth ranked Polish heavyweight Tybura enters having won seven of his last eight bouts. A black belt in BJJ, Tybura is a threat in the clinch, pressing opponents against the fence and when he’s earned top position on the ground when he’s able to take the fight to the floor.

On his feet Tybura is somewhat deliberate, telegraphing and often hesitant to fire combinations choosing rather to maul, clasp and hug.

In this fight Tybura will be facing the most dangerous test of his career for fifth ranked Englishman Tom Aspinall, will be the taller, younger, quicker and more athletic big man in the cage.

However, Aspinall’s entering this fight off a knee injury loss to Curtis Blaydes last July.

It’s my belief that a year is the minimal amount of time a fighter would need to be 110% ready to fight again coming off an ACL. Aspinall’s recovery and performance will be scrutinized by the whole of the MMA community so it’s important for the young man to arrive prepared and ready for the firmest test of his career.

Aspinall if on his game is a deft moving, athletic, black belt in BJJ himself.

In fact, Aspinall’s dad is a black belt so mixed martial arts are what Aspinall was born into and we can only surmise that his preparation for this fight has him ready to perform.

I do have several questions in this fight though.

How does Aspinall move and maneuver especially early when he has been so lethal prior to this setback?

Will he be hesitant to fire, engage or initiate?

Can Tybura back Aspinall up and force the clinch and force Aspinall to hurl leverage and pressure on that injured leg?

Should Tybura force this fight to the floor and even gain top position, will he be able to hold authority over Aspinall who is trained with similar BJJ weaponry than he?

And the most important question which is critical to Tybura’s chances, what happens should Tybura be able to take this fight past two rounds?

Aspinall’s fought into the second round in only one of his last several bouts. It’s logical that Aspinall will try to finish his opponent early but what happens if he cannot get the durable tough Polish pugilist out of there in the first ten minutes?

For Tybura, it’s about taking Aspinall into the second round then deeper. Tybura must deploy forward pressure and use his durability to force Aspinall to defend, toil, then ideally tire.

Tybura knows his best opportunity in this fight outside of a flash spinning kick or KO of some form, is to force Aspinall to fight past the second round and take him where he has not been before. There Tybura may be able to test the Englishman’s cardio, his knee and ultimately his will.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -175

Lean Over

Chris Duncan -145 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +120 Lightweight (155lbs)

Each of these combatants were featured on the last London event. Each won their respective bouts.

While the short, squat Israeli Ashmouz proved to be explosive and powerful, the taller, longer Scotsman Duncan performed like an athlete that needs to develop some wrestling ability, refine his strike defense and increase his cardio.

It’s dangerous to consider positioning against a local European athlete competing in London town but in this case, I feel that Ashmouz, a fighter best judged by his abilities as opposed to his physique is in a strong position to soften Duncan’s body early then touch him up later in the fifteen-minute fight.

Ashmouz +130

Props later this week may prove interesting especially based on the total price below.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -175

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

Money Morning: Account or profit will never amount!

This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Bueno Silva: Devil wears Prado

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

Money Morning: Accounting

I publicize results regularly for business purposes of course but also because so few do. They’re simply unable derive profit from their wagering so early on I thought I’d let my profitability be public knowledge in order to be able to offer a voice when it comes to Profitable Sports Gaming.

In fact, I’d like readers to know that here is where you may come to peruse articles and offerings all designed to contribute to your growth and development as a profitable gambler.

Last week in the UFC 290 card I realized a 3-2 +2.10u result.

To date in 2023 the ‘Bout Business Podcast stands: 56-51 +17.46u 16% ROI (+122)

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC event which is some 44-47 weeks per year!

You may access GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast simply by hitting the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage. You’ll be provided a direct link to the broadcast.

I have exciting offerings as we approach the fall so please keep this page bookmarked, if you have any questions or issues: Lou@GambLou.com

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming