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This week’s PPV fight card, UFC 296 is a stacked event that will complete 2023 for the organization. The slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts featuring athletes from around the globe who bring their individualized fight weaponry into Las Vegas to win a fight, earn some cheese and close the year on a winning note.

All UFC athletes aspire to compete in PPV events because of the immense exposure they deliver. Once on a PPV card the next ascent is to find oneself on the main card of any PPV event. Once there, a fighter’s earnings are magnified intensifying the importance of the opportunity.

Profitability into this last event of the year stands 21-19 +2.8u.

Let’s Fight

Leon Edwards -160 vs. Colby Covington +135 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Englishman Edwards wrested the Welterweight title in magnificent fashion when he head-kick KO’d then champion Kamaru Usman in August 2022. His title defense against Usman this past March was less spectacular though the title remained with Edwards.

Edwards has a very balanced mixed martial arts arsenal; he’s been in with the elite of the division winning eleven straight since 2016. This is his second defense of the title and Edwards arrives to the fight quietly confident he will retain his title

Colby Covington arrives as the brash antagonist which is his ‘schtick’ and he plays it very well. An elite D1 college wrestler Covington has dominated the division save for Usman though he’s not had the opportunity to tangle with Edwards yet.

In the cage, Covington’s intense, forward pressing pressure wrestling and his unlimited cardio are the foundations of his unrelenting attacks.

Outside the cage, he hurls endless tasteless insults at opponents with a shit talking, fowl mouthed, in your face delivery. This tactic repulses most anyone who is within earshot as well as the target those insults are directed towards.

This Covington tactic makes him one of the more abrasive yet elite mentalists in the game and he’s been trying to needle Leon since this bout was announced.

Southpaw Edwards advantages are found in his height, reach, youth and calm demeanor. Edwards should be somewhat prepared for the pressure of Covington after a couple bouts against Usman though Covington’s pressure is more unrelenting as he’s willing to wrestle from bell to bell while Usman’s legs had long since expired by the time he tussled with Edwards.

Covington will drive to press forward and clinch Edwards against the fence, take him down then wrestle him up which will be the key to this fight for him.

Challenges for Covington are that he’s now thirty-five and has not battled in the cage for over a year. Does that negatively affect him or will he arrive firing fresh as a daisy? I believe the later honestly.

He’ll work to systematically wear Edwards out by wrapping him up early and dragging him to the floor for a rock n roll session but can he execute a wrestling heavy game plan against a man with substantial wrestling chops himself?

Covington’s going to be giving up substantial size Saturday and he’ll be at a disadvantage on the feet so he will focus on clasping, clinching and grappling.  Edwards meanwhile will be efforting to maintain space and control distance in order to clobber Colby coming in.

Covington is a special breed of cardio maniac and while I have great respect for Edwards as a mixed martial artist, I must consider that the exultation and notoriety in recent months coupled with the fact that he’s not seen this form of pressure in prior bouts may tilt this fight to Covington.

It’s well easier to get to the mountain top than remain there.

Eventually, when this bout hits the championship rounds and I believe it does conditioning will be the story of this fight.

Will Edwards succumb to the old adage that ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all’? Or will Edwards have the legs, movement and ability to maintain distance and crack Colby as he attempts to gain inside position?

This is going to be an excellent test for both athletes but it’s in the championship rounds where I handicap Covington’s mettle may separate these two.

Covington +135 1u

Total in this fight 4.5Rds. Over

Alexandre Pantoja -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160 Flyweight (125lbs.) Title

Rematch.

In August 2021 Pantoja submitted Royval when Pantoja was focused solely on gaining his title shot while Royval was a talented but yet developing future flyweight talent.

Pantoja choked Royval out in the second round of that bout and now defends his title for the first time in a rematch against a kid in Royval that since their first bout has greatly evolved physically, mentally and emotionally.

Royval’s two years younger, he’s four inches taller and the lefty holds a reach advantage of seven inches. Together these physical advantages may contribute to dominance provided Royval can utilize movement and distance in order to ensure the fight remains at distance and standing.

In the first bout, Royval’s wild approach and lack of experience manifested itself into an uneven performance both mentally and physically as Pantoja was simply the more refined, aggressive, complete mixed martial artist in the cage that night.

In this battle, I believe Royval must take a planned but aggressive approach to the new champion and introduce himself early as the bigger, stronger more determined athlete. This will be no easy task against a warrior with the fight arsenal and pride of Pantoja.

Royval’s size, length, youth and focus must together be utilized to force Pantoja into realizing this is a different fighter and a different night than when these two first fought and possibly a different outcome.

Pantoja’s story is a powerful one that encompasses plenty of past pain and professional obstacles but he’s overcome all of that to become champion of the world.

Since becoming champion however, the exultation, recognition and notoriety that comes with being champion coupled with the wealth for his family may not have had time to do their corrosive work yet …but I MUST wonder if and how Pantoja will be able to match the intensity of performance he displayed in his last bout against Moreno.

Royval matches up well against Pantoja.

Royval +160 

Patience with this release…the world is playing Pantoja… take Royval at +160 or higher!

Gamblou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop Friday early PM PT. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming