Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV87 Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev: Struik-out?

This week’s UFC LV87 production will take place at the APEX center in Las Vegas where the smaller 25’ cage will be utilized for athletes competing in front of just a handful of attendees.

Many feel that the lack of a packed house decreases excitement in UFC cards, though I am one who begs to differ. Any location that two motivated, focused, elite mixed martial artists decide to compete with one another is fine by me because fans do not make the fight, athletes especially in confined quarters do!

In the last two events, favorites have realized a 20-4 tally which manifests itself into bettors being affected by the ‘recency’ of favorite success. In a card where all but three bouts are lined with Favorites of -200 or greater, I look for select underdogs to be live….

Last week in Anaheim flyweight contender Brandon Royval upset former champion Brandon Moreno in a five round split decision that was not as close as the judging indicated.

My release of Royval/Moreno starts round 4 -175 earns digital fight enthusiasts another unit of profit. 2024 UFC profitability: 3-3 +1.85u

Shamil Gaziev -165 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +145 heavyweight (265lbs) main event

Undefeated Dagestani Gaziev steps into this main event as an athlete with only one UFC bout under his belt, which is unusual.

He opened -160, has a couple of inches of height advantage in this bout as well he is going to be the athlete cutting weight to make the 266-pound weight maximum.

Gaziev’ past performances show a balance of finishing ability and stamina even though he’s faced only nominally talented foes. His one UFC win came over an athlete in Martin Buday who held experience over the Dagestani but who had faced journeyman competition himself.

Gaziev is regarded as favorite here because he’ shown the ability to grapple effectively and carry power in his hands based on his Buday finish.

‘Bigi Boi’ Rozenstruik enters this bout 7-5 in UFC competition defeating low level foes but being defeated by fighters securely positioned in the top seven of the division.

Rozenstruik holds firm advantages in UFC experience, level of athletes faced and striking diversity as he is a specialized world class kickboxing talent. The athlete from Suriname prefers to keep fights standing at every cost and try to finish opponents via his striking/kicking which is displayed in his willingness to take fights immediately to any/all foes.

Against lower levels of heavyweight combatants this blueprint is successful yet against the elite it falters because of Rozenstruik’s lack of a well-rounded, complete fight arsenal namely he has little ability to stop the takedown.

The question to be asked is will Gaziev be able to take this bout to the mat where Rozenstruik is susceptible to being dominated or will he try to strike with the South American slugger?

In a fight where the total is 1.5Rds. with the under lined -190 one may handicap Rozenstruik via KO/TKO or Gaziev via submission as logical results.

The prop “fight does NOT start round 3” -300 cannot be a potential consideration because of the exorbitant price so let us keep this week’s release simple:

Gaziev -165

Muhammad Mokaev -375 vs. Alex Perez +300 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Last week’s Flyweight main event of Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval was a rematch. What that fight demonstrated was how shallow the talent pool is in the flyweight division as after champion Alexandre Pantoja, there is Royval then Moreno and all three have competed against each other numerous times.

New blood in this division takes the form of up-and-coming talent Mokeav who is 10-0 professionally and has won all five of his UFC bouts.

His last fight, a third-round submission of crafty veteran Tim Elliot seemed proof that the twenty-tree year old Mokaev has the youth, size, wrestling ability and athleticism to break into the top five of this division.

His opponent, thirty-one-year-old Alex Perez is an experienced veteran of the UFC sporting a 24-7 record. However, Perez’s last win came in 2020 and he has simply two fights since that time.

In each of those bouts he faced elite level talent (Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo) but in each of those bouts he was submitted in the first round. His fight against Pantoja occurred in July of last year.

Perez has advantages of experience in this fight as well, he has faced more potent competition but at his age and with his low level of activity this bout seems pretty set up to display Mokaev’s abilities.

Five of Perez’s seven losses have come via submission. Meanwhile Mokaev has submitted his last three UFC competitors and seven of ten professional fighters faced.

This is a set-up fight designed to propel Mokaev to the top of this weight class to inject potent, young talent into a flyweight division that is in real need of aspiring talent.

Mokaev opened -255 and has ballooned to current pricing. Look for Mokaev to shine Saturday.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. pick-em.

I lean to the over as Perez must understand that his career is on the line here and he needs to make this a competitive bout.

Friday midday the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast which features all my official releases drops. GambLou.com is the only place to access those releases.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the Saturday morning scraps!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

NHL Stanley Cup Tournament: Passion Season approaches

It’s the time of year when GambLou.com begins to focus on realizing bottom line profitability on the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The NHL is +/- ten games beyond the half-way point of the regular season and the playoff races are beginning to take shape.

Lost by most/many is how dynamically different this sport is between its regular season and its playoffs. This is why I rarely invest in regular season games unless there is a specific playoff atmosphere for whatever reason.

I released the Las Vegas Golden Knights +125 February 6th in their victory against division rival the Edmonton Oilers who were attempting to break the all-time winning streak by an NHL team in the regular season.

That win was easy but there are few opportunities that exist like it until we get to the last ten tilts of the regular season or so.

It’s then that open ice becomes rare, the players play much more defensively and the game begins to transition from one of ‘space and offensive flair’ to ‘lack of skating room and defensive intensity’.

Last year all releases were posted publicly on Instagram.

This year this webpage GambLou.com will be the only location to obtain my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases.

2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff results: 55-46; +25.20units; 29% ROI

For more information on how to access my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases, please hit the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage.

Questions, comments?

Lou@GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Mexico Moreno vs. Royval: Toe 2 Toe in Mexico!

This week the UFC travels to Mexico City, Mexico for its Fight Night production where the main event features a rematch of Flyweight athletes Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval.

This card offers thirteen bouts eleven of which feature Mexican fighters who find themselves in favorable matchups. There are no athletes on this fight card weighing more than lightweight 155lbs. and all but one matchup is lined at 2.5 total rounds.

Mexico City with its altitude, the larger 30’ octagon and smaller statured athletes may make for a plethora of decisions?

Last week Rober Whittaker shrugged off a vicious head kick late in round one to earn a decision win over Paolo Costa in the co main event. Whittaker’s win pushed my results this year to 2-3 + .85u

Let’s enhance that bottom line with this week’s release.

Brandon Moreno -250 vs. Brandon Royval +200 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Royval, who trains at elevation in Colorado arrives at this main event fresh off a five round unanimous decision loss to current champion Alexandre Pantoja last December.

Royval, a southpaw will have height and reach advantages over Moreno, the former champion of the division. Royval’s been able to conquer all the division’s contenders save for the two elite talents in current champion Pantoja and Moreno who just lost his title to Pantoja a few months ago.

To break through and earn a third crack at Pantoja will not be an easy task understanding that the Mexican fight crowd, a voracious one at that will be whole heartedly supporting Moreno, Mexico’s first ever UFC champion.

Royval’s strengths are his unusual lengthy frame, his ability to move in unorthodox, unpredictable fashion and his determination to finally break through and defeat one of the two most dominant flyweights in the division’s history.

It was in November of 2020 when these two first tussled and Royval, a black belt in BJJ had to take a difficult loss because he injured his shoulder and was unable to continue. Royval has improved drastically since their first bout, and he has worked diligently to earn this opportunity realizing a 3-2 record since that defeat with both losses coming at the hands of Pantoja.

In Moreno we have the former champion and the pride of Mexico. Moreno is also a black belt in BJJ but he is also a deft boxer with the standard Mexican granite chin.

Moreno’s coming off a dynamically close split decision loss to Pantoja this past July and it seems clear that the victor here will get another crack at the current champion.

While Moreno’s giving up height and length to Royval, he owns a wealth of championship, five round main event experience. He’s also a year younger than his foe and he’ll have hordes of feverous fans fueling his fury.

Where Royval is unpredictable and flamboyant with his strikes, flying knees and kicks, Moreno is systematic in his approach to working the body then taking the head. This will be a terrific clash of styles.

Both men are competent on the feet, but it is Moreno who possesses the more complete wrestling/grappling attack and I do believe we will see him exercise that ability in this bout. Crowding the longer, taller Royval together with forcing him backwards and into defending takedowns will go a long way in usurping the energy from the Coloradan.

If there is a chink in the Moreno armor, it may be that he has been in numerous wars since these two last fought. Royval’s overall improvement coupled with his ability to compete at elevation will be telling in his chances to get his hand raised in this bout.

In a fight that I believe goes to decision, this week’s release:

Fight starts round 4 -175

Round props selection at DraftKings

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -140

Manuel Torres -185 vs. Chris Duncan +155 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This is the only bout on this slate lined at 1.5Rds with the under is priced -200. From the total we may imply that this fight is going to be a banger and from my handicap that inference would be completely correct.

In this one, Duncan 11-1 ships in from Scotland although he has been training in Florida’s ATT for weeks, a gym where there are at least five top fifteen ranked lightweights in the world for him to take rounds against.

Duncan is tough, durable and possesses wrestling acumen though he prefers to situate himself in the center of the cage, stand wide and zing hooks, crosses, and kicks at opponents with the singular goal of cracking them unconscious.

Duncan’s defensive abilities are my biggest issue with his fighting as takes 3.8 significant strikes per minute which is something extremely dangerous against this opponent.

Torres, 14-2 is the local, he conditioned to training at Mexico City’s extreme elevation and while he is more than willing to trade hooks, his strikes tend to be straighter, then supplemented with damaging elbows and knees right up the middle.

Torres has not seen the second round of a mixed martial arts fight since 2018 as he is a pure cold-hearted finisher yet his ability to compete in a long, tough, grueling battle is a justifiable concern.

Once the fight begins, it is my judgement that it is in Duncan’s best interest to wrestle the Mexican up in this fight to sap him of his energy then take advantage of him in the later rounds.

For Torres, he will attack Duncan from the opening bell, but he MUST control his distance and make certain in his zeal to destroy that he does not rush into a Duncan takedown for Torres has little to no ability to wrestle in any capacity.

In a fight where I expect both athletes to ‘put it on’ their opponent it is the durability and perseverance of Duncan that forces me to believe that this total offers value to the over.

Torres opened -155 in this bout, he dipped to -120 when I released him on my Monday ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast and now his price has now escalated to the current -175.

My handicap of this bout is that it goes over 1.5 Rds. while my conservative nature says to use the prop, “Fight starts round 2”, however that prop has not been put up on the DraftKings menu yet, so I will hold off as my deadline calls.

Lean Over 1.5 but will wager “Fight starts round 2”. I expect that price to have a plus sign next to it once released….

My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops midday Friday and is accessible at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

NHL Stanley Cup Tournament: Passion Season approaches

It’s the time of year when GambLou.com begins to focus on realizing bottom line profitability on the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The NHL is +/- ten games beyond the half-way point of the regular season and the playoff races are beginning to take shape.

Lost by most/many is how dynamically different this sport is between its regular season and its playoffs. This is why I rarely invest in regular season games unless there is a specific playoff atmosphere for whatever reason.

I released the Las Vegas Golden Knights +125 February 6th in their victory against division rival the Edmonton Oilers who were attempting to break the all-time winning streak by an NHL team in the regular season.

That win was easy but there are few opportunities that exist like it until we get to the last ten tilts of the regular season or so.

It’s then that open ice becomes rare, the players play much more defensively and the game begins to transition from one of ‘space and offensive flair’ to ‘lack of skating room and defensive intensity’.

Last year all releases were posted publicly on Instagram.

This year this webpage GambLou.com will be the only location to obtain my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases.

2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff results: 55-46; +25.20units; 29% ROI

For more information on how to access my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases, please hit the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage.

Questions, comments?

Lou@GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 298 Volkanovski vs. Topuria” Terminally Ilya?

Interested in accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast? Hit the BOUT BUSINESS tab at the top of this webpage for specifics!

This week UFC 298 takes place from Los Angeles with an internationally populated fight slate featuring athletes from China to Equator, Australia to Wales, Brazil to Jamaica and all points in between.

Four fights offer us a look at debuting athletes while eight bouts highlight veteran competitors facing off in high stakes bouts with each combatant looking to enhance their career trajectories.

Last week Rodolfo Viera submitted Armen Petrosyan in the first round of their fight. Petrosyan, needed to survive the first round against a fresh, strong Brazilian counterpart in order to have the fight begin to turn his way yet that was not to be.

I stand 1-3 -.15 heading into this week.

Let’s dig right into UFC 298 which kicks off Saturday at 3pm PT with early prelims followed by the main card which starts at 7pm PT and features a handful of highly competitive and potentially explosive bouts.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Ilya Topuria +105 Featherweight (145lbs.) Championship

Undefeated and third ranked Topuria, of Georgian descent fights out of Spain where he was raised. He possesses a strong Greco Roman wrestling base to go with his black belt in BJJ. Topuria’s striking is serviceable enough to allow him to compete standing until which time he can clasp onto opponents in order to press them against the cage then force then onto the mat. From there his single point of focus is to choke them unconscious or force then to tap from an array of submission attempts which come as second nature to him.

Topuria, 14-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC will be two inches taller than the champion and eight years the younger athlete in this title fight. He sports a +1.39 strike per minute ratio and lands 2.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. He realizes 1.5 submission attempts per fifteen minutes of fight time.

These numbers, while sound must be deciphered by comprehending the level of competition Topuria has faced.

Topuria is young, he’s overly cocky and has talked his way into this championship fight after defeating only two pedigreed, legitimate UFC featherweights. Many deem Topuria ready for this challenge and he must be respected in this bout as he is aggressive, unrelenting with his forward pressure, and arrives to this fight with momentum.

That stated, he has been yammering into any microphone available announcing to anyone listening that it’s his ‘destiny’ to defeat current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria’s bravado and approach to this substantial step up in class seems quite a risky one to say the least and Volkanovski, a silent assassin has taken note.

In Alexander Volkanovski we have arguably the greatest featherweight to ever step into the cage which is a strong statement considering that list includes Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.

Volkanovski’s 26-3 professional record and his 13-2 result in the UFC does not come close to telling the complete story as both of his UFC losses have come at the hands of current UFC Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has dominated a division ten pound heavier than featherweight. Volkanovski’s only other defeat came years ago in his fourth professional bout in the welterweight division.

Most, if not all combat sport pundits regard Makhachev as the current pound for pound athlete in the organization so those recent losses come with absolutely no shame rather total respect.

At the featherweight level, Volkanovski has dominated all challengers. He owns decision victories over the aforementioned Jose Aldo as well he’s defeated former champion Max Holloway thrice in closely contested five round battles resulting in decisions.

Volkanovski’s +2.77 strikes landed per minute is impressive but even more so when one considers who he has competed against in the cage.

Volkanovski will be giving away two inches of height and eight years of age to Topuria but his recent domination of Yair Rodriguez clearly displays his ability to dominate any and all forms of challenge from athletes competing at featherweight.

The intrigue in this fight comes by understanding that four months ago Volkanovski took his second bout against the aforementioned lightweight champion Makhachev on teen days’ notice! He was defeated by knockout via head kick in the first round.

After that fight and leading up to this bout, Volkanovski, gave a highly emotional interview where he stated how much he needs to be in training. His demeanor and body language during this interview was disturbing to me. It also came out some time later that he was enjoying the spoils of the layman’s life as he had no fight scheduled leading up to his ten-day notice to fight Makhachev.

Volkanovski opened -175 for this fight and he has been bet down to the current price of just above pick-em.

Usually, I’d be dashing for the betting counter looking to invest in Volkanovski -120. However, his highly emotional interview in early January after the Makhachev bout coupled with the fact that he’s taking on another very dangerous challenger four months removed from being knocked unconscious forces me to hesitate.

This will be Volkanovski’s fourth highly competitive fight in the last calendar year and remember two of those were against an elite champion at a weight class ten pounds higher than his.

Has he allowed his body/brain to fully recoup for this battle at thirty-five years of age? Could he be taking this bout too soon after that KO?

These questions force me to pass on this fight despite the perception that there seems to be an abundance of value on the current champion.

Months ago, I released Topuria +135 on the ‘Bout Business Podcast but that was before he began all the needless yapping. If it were today, I would consider Volkanovski at current pricing or I’d pass all together on a side in this fight.

Total in this fight: 3.5 -125 Over

Robert Whittaker -240 vs. Paolo Costa +210 Middleweight (185lbs.)

New Zealand’s Whittaker is a former champion who has faced the elite of the middleweight division. Since 2014, the divisions third ranked athlete has only lost to current champion Dricus du Plessis and former champion Israel Adesanya.

Whittaker is strong, moves deftly and has power in all appendages. He’s highly decorated with Black belts in hapkido, Gōjū-ryū karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu making him one truly dangerous fighting machine.

He’s looking to bounce after what he, myself and many in the MMA arena regard as a most dismal uncharacteristic performance in that loss to du Plessis.

At thirty-three Whittaker believes he has much more to prove and he can go a long way in displaying that against his sixth ranked Brazilian counterpart Paolo Costa Saturday night.

Costa 14-2 professionally is a man with a chiseled physique and movie star looks. He’s decorated with a black belt in BJJ and does possess power in his kicks and strikes. Costa, 6-2 in the UFC has been inactive since August of 2022 when he scored an uneventful decision over Luke Rockhold a washed athlete with a balsa wood beak who had come out of retirement to take the fight.

At his best Costa has profuse striking power but he is a front runner whose confidence and swagger grows when competing against lesser pedigreed athletes but who’s momentum wanes when placed against world class fighters with elite MMA acumen who can withstand his early barrage then turn the tables and back him up.

The prescription for defeating Costa is simple, just bully the bully.

How well Costa has used his time away from the cage will be apparent early in this fight. It’s my judgement that while desperate for a win, the inactivity and relative low fight IQ he’s displayed throughout his career will be difficult traits for him to overcome understanding the elite athlete he’s going to be in the cage with Saturday.

Whittaker’s been in LA for a couple of weeks now and he’s focused and determined to end this fight violently and make another run for the division’s championship which is certainly withing his ability to accomplish.

Whittaker -250

Total in this fight: Opened 1.5 Rds. -240 to the over but is now lined 2.5Rds -150 Over.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast contains my official releases for this fight card. It will be available Friday just after noon PT and is only available at GambLou.com

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

Gembloux

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey

NHL Stanley Cup Tournament: Passion Season approaches

It’s the time of year when GambLou.com begins to focus on realizing bottom line profitability on the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The NHL is +/- ten games beyond the half-way point of the regular season and the playoff races are beginning to take shape.

Lost by most/many is how dynamically different this sport is between its regular season and its playoffs. This is why I rarely invest in regular season games unless there is a specific playoff atmosphere for whatever reason.

I released the Las Vegas Golden Knights +125 February 6th in their victory against division rival the Edmonton Oilers who were attempting to break the all-time winning streak by an NHL team in the regular season.

That win was easy but there are few opportunities that exist like it until we get to the last ten tilts of the regular season or so.

It’s then that open ice becomes rare, the players play much more defensively and the game begins to transition from one of ‘space and offensive flair’ to ‘lack of skating room and defensive intensity’.

Last year all releases were posted publicly on Instagram.

This year this webpage GambLou.com will be the only location to obtain my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases.

2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff results: 55-46; +25.20units; 29% ROI

For more information on how to access my NHL Stanley Cup Playoff releases, please hit the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage.

Questions, comments?

Lou@GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

Super Bowl LVIII: 49’ers vs. Chiefs profitable positions & props

I have always maintained the NFC/AFC Championship weekend was the official end of my NFL season and I still adhere to that. However, the evolution of the game, most especially the props market have added dimension and opportunity to Super Bowl Betting.

While I will maintain that one’s NFL profit needs to be secured BY the Super Bowl, I also maintain that there can be advantage in the prop market as well sides.

So let me share some of my client releases and my “Square as hell” releases for this game.

Fade, Follow or Fuggazi here we go!

Serious wagers made last week (prices may not still be available)

Niners -120 Money line 1u

Kittle Over 46.5 -120 yards receiving 1u

McCaffery -240 yards rushing vs. Pacheco 1.2u outlay

Under 48.5 -120 .6u

Niners Over 23.5 points +104 .5u

McCaffrey Over .5 TD -135 1u outlay

Kelce Over .5 TD -120 1u outlay

Pacheco Over .5 TD +105 1u outlay

Purdy Under 31.5 pass attempts -130 .65u outlay

Over 3.5 total field goals +120 .6u outlay

Square Bets…I mean real square but I have made the Tails and Odd game final result or some 45 plus years! Old habits die hard lol

Coin toss: Tails +100 1u

Final score odd -105 1u

There you have it sports enthusiasts…and remember that the UFC is in full metal position to capture the attention of sports bettors once this most public game is completed.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming