Favorites roared back to 65% on the year after n 11-2 result in last week’s UFC LV89.

My releases of Justin Tafa +150 and Rose Namajunas in the second leg of a two-fighter parlay split resulting in a 1-1 + .57 profit for the week. That makes digital profitability in 2024 6-5 +3.52u which displays an average win of +143.

Realizing profitability when committed to remaining on the underdog side of UFC results can be challenging which is why I remain ultra-selective with my releases on this platform. It takes little to ‘pick them all’ and the result of that erodes win percentages, gross profit and return on investment which are my sole concerns for this column and why I do not undertake that pursuit.

Into this UFC FN Atlantic City, we march where fighters compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon. Featured on this card are nine area athletes looking to harness the momentum of the home crowd to earn victory and propel their careers.

Erin Blanchfield -185 vs. Manon Fiorot +155 women’s flyweight (125lbs.) main event

We last witnessed third ranked Swedish athlete Manon Fiorot defeat debuting flyweight and former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas last September.

In that three-round affair, Fiorot displayed extreme durability coupled with aggressive power striking/kicking in earning a razor close nod.

The striking Swede realizes a +2.7 significant strikes landed per round as well exhibits 91% take down defense thus far in her career. While she does remain singularly centered upon slugging her durability, toughness and UFC experience make her a justified top five fighter in the division.

In second ranked Blanchfield we have an athlete that is ten years younger than Fiorot which the numbers say provides a 67% advantage historically.

Besides her youth Blanchfield is decorated with a black belt in BJJ and she has ascended the ranks of the division by dominating each challenge she has faced.

Blanchfield steps up in class of opponent for this fight certainly but her well rounded fight arsenal, youth, and the fact that she is competing in her own back yard against a European athlete that is travelling in all spell advantage for the twenty-four-year-old Jersy product.

This fight opened a dead pick-em but by Tuesday of fight week (today) Blanchfield’s been steamed to the current -198 based on the advantages spelled out above.

Though Fiorot has faced a more accomplished level of UFC opponent, the fact remains that this is her first headline event as well five round fight. In her last bout against Namajunas Fiorot slowed substantially in the third round against Namajunas who was making her debut in the division.

In Blanchfield she will face the more versed mixed martial arts athlete that is not only ten plus years younger but one that has already experienced the distractions and pressure of headlining a UFC card.

Though early in the week I believe it is too late to jump on the Blanchfield train now even though I handicap her to be fairly priced. Instead, the advantages lie in the total for this bout which opened 4.5 pick-em and now stand 4.5 Over -135.

This fight will be keenly contested. I handicap Blanchfield’s youth and well-rounded pedigree as well the fact that she is the more conditioned fighter fighting in front of a home crowd to in unison create enough advantage here for her to slay this Swedish threat though I judge that it takes her all five rounds.

Blanchfield/Fiorot Over -135

1.0u to earn .74u

Vicente Luque -120 vs. Joaquin Buckley +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

Buckley is an unranked mixed martial artist who has a modest wrestling background but is a profusely powerful puncher. He is physically compact and extremely explosive relying on bludgeoning hooks, crosses, and elbows to render opponents’ unconscious.

17-6 professionally and 7-4 in the UFC, Buckley lands slightly more significant strikes per round than he absorbs, sports average take down defense which he should not have to employ in this predicted standup war and he averages 1.51 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time which he will not undertake unless he gets stung.

He unrelentingly presses forward and wastes little time attempting to engage opponents in order to compete in a good old fashioned ‘turn your lights out’ throwdown.

In Brazilian and eleventh ranked Vicente Luque we have another relentless warrior raised in the New Jersey area, so he will have family in attendance and will be backed by the crowd.

Decorated with black belts in Luta Livre Esportiva and BJJ, Luque is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist of these two. He hurls a high rate of power punches in all his battles while being more than willing to receive a shot on the schnoz in order to deliver one.

Once the bell rings for this confrontation fans will be treated to a couple of alpha males looking to immediately ring the other up to earn an impressive and quick victory.

I expect there will be little feeling out in this fight by Buckley who will want to stand firm and hurl.

Luque must, in my judgment use tactic in this fight and employ a diversity of attack to sap the slugger from St. Louis of his explosiveness. Patience will be Luque’s ally as he may extol his best damage after his barrel bodied aggressor begins to swell up and slow down. The question is, can he remain focused on utilizing patience?

This issue with planned tactic for either of these men is that they rarely employ it choosing instead to engage in war and finish their opponent.

In this bout, the experienced laden Luque who has battled the more accomplished level of opponent must remain premeditated and on plan to manage this fight past the first five minutes of competition.

Once into the second round, provided this fight arrives there, Luque may be the faster more damaging power puncher of the two.

Luque opened as a -160 favorite in this fight and early money on Buckley has compressed the price down to the current -110.

Buckley’s lure is based on his explosiveness, the belief that Luque is older than he is as well UFC investors are aware that Luque’s experience also translates into attrition for he has been in several debilitating duels.

Total in this fight is lined 2.5Rds Under -165 after opening Under -135.

Few, including myself, expect this bout to go to a decision.

Lupita Godinez-200 vs. Virna Jandiroba +170 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Mexican ‘Loopy’ Godinez, tenth ranked in the division displays all the pride, durability, and determination of the Mexican fighter. Her MMA game has drastically improved since she began training with flyweight champion Alexa Grasso at Lobo gym in Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.

A purple belt in BJJ the undersized Godinez displays complete willingness to engage in the stand-up wars Mexican boxers are renown. She is also apt at the takedown and has been effective stopping take down advances from opponents though in this fight that ability will surely be tested.

Brazilian Virna Jandiroba is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai.

Seventh ranked Jandiroba will be the taller, larger female in the cage Saturday. She has competed against a level of competition more accomplished than has her opponent.

In this battle of Mexico vs. Brazil we will witness a couple of females fighting to break into the elite of the division. Lined 2.5 rounds with the over -270 this fight has all the makings of being a razor close decision.

At the end of the day Jandiroba’s size, her level of competition faced, and her ground abilities all signify to me the verification that she is the athlete with the more complete skills. ‘Though an underdog I handicap Jandiroba to be the sleeper of this fight card.

Jandiroba +170 .60u to earn 1.02u

Jandiroba via decision price is not yet available but it will be a strong consideration.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday around Noon PT. Look for all my final releases at WWW.GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

UFC 299 was an epic fight card where favorites ran 3-2 on the pay per view main card. Overall, on the slate, chalk realized a 9-5 result making the 2024 total for favorites in the UFC 64-30-3 or 66%.

This week the organization returns to Las Vegas for a fight card which will take place at the UFC APEX where again, the smaller twenty-five-foot cage is used and very few fans are able to attend.

Overwhelmingly the athletes express a desire to compete in front of packed arenas where they can feed off the ferocity of the attendees despite the organization’s zeal to continue to hold events at its own forum.

Last week I hit both underdogs released. Curtis Blaydes was released at a price of -110 but ended up closing a slight underdog, knocked out Jailton Almeida in the second round of their heavyweight bout.

Dustin Poirier +185 was fully disrespected by the betting public in his bout against Benoit Saint Denis. He displayed how critical it is to recognize a professional fighter’s entire body of work as opposed to being blinded by recency and the lack of formidable, elite competition.

Saint Denis was not prepared mentally or physically to step up so aggressively in level of competition this early in his promising career.

Poirier awarded Saint Denis his PhD. In MMA but look for Saint Denis to rebound after being knocked out. There is a learning curve in world class mixed martial arts!

Those two underdog releases put my UFC profitability for this column in 2024 to 5-4 +3.05u.

Now let us investigate a fight card that offers thirteen bouts featuring athletes less recognized by most fans than last week’s UFC 299.

This production begins at 1pm PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which drops at 4pm PT.

Tai Tuivasa -115 vs. Marcin Tybura +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Number ten ranked Polish fighter Tybura 24-8, is a black belt in BJJ. Tybura’s grappling is the foundation for his fighting. His striking is not overly effective as he carries little speed, precision, or power in his hands though he does offer decent kicking power from distance despite telegraphing his intentions.

When matched against top seven heavyweight adversaries, Tybura’s lack of fluid footwork and precision striking leaves him exposed to being blasted when standing.

The singularly dimensioned Pole, as witnessed in his last bout, a first round KO loss against number one ranked Tom Aspinal, struggles against elite, well rounded heavyweight competition.

In Tai Tuivasa we have an athlete that enters the cage eight years younger than Tybura which is a great advantage.

The fun loving Australian, now training in California at AKA is a brawling Muay Thai based striker who carries an abundance of power in his hands and can end any fight with one pop to an opponent’s chops.

Tuivasa also lacks fluidity of movement and precision striking preferring instead to walk opponents down and engage in leveraged toe-to-toe brawls staged from the center of the cage.

Once the bell to this bout chimes, I look for Tuivasa to be on the hunt for hooks, crosses, knees, and uppercuts. Tybura will attempt to engage on the feet only long enough to clasp onto the Aussie, force him against the fence then try to drag the massive mauler onto the mat then attempt to gain top position where he can reign his own form of damage.

Where this bout takes place will go a long way in determining its outcome for Tuivasa is as ill prepared to grapple/roll as Tybura is to engage in an all-out stand-up fracas.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -180

Mike Davis -300 vs. Natan Levy +245 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Levy trains at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. He is only three fights into his UFC career realizing a 2-1 record.

Decorated with a third dan black belt in Uechi-Ryū Karate, a black belt in Kyokushin Karate, a black belt in Kung Fu and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Levy’s resume appears impressive, yet he has shown little ability to apply effective striking in his bouts.

Levy’s grappling/wrestling is much more refined than his striking despite his Karate accolades. Levy needs a victory over a legitimate UFC caliber opponent as the level of his previous UFC competition leaves much to be desired.

Natan steps up in class substantially to take on his opponent Mike Davis.

Davis, 10-2 professionally trains in Florida’s famous ATT. There he is able to train with an array of highly skilled professionals who offer a great diversity of specialized MMA skills.

Davis’s UFC record is 3-1 but he has faced a more stringent level of competition than Levy. His takedown defense, movement and cardio will also be differentiating factors in a fight that I expect could go all fifteen minutes.

After a second-round submission loss to Gilbert Burns in his debut Davis has rattled off three straight victories against very worthy UFC competition.

In this fight he will be challenged by the pressing grappling of Levy, but it is my judgement that Davis’s footwork and effective power striking makes him a legitimate favorite in this confrontation.

While both men have grappling backgrounds, I look for this bout to take place standing and it is on the feet that Davis’s youth, height and reach advantages coupled with his superior athleticism will provide him great advantage.

I normally avoid high priced favorites but in this fight Davis’s advantages are too glaring to overlook. Levy for his part is stepping up in class exponentially.

Rather than risk such a high-priced favorite straight up, I will choose instead to parlay Mike Davis with Rose Namajunas -168 who competes in the main event of UFC Las Vegas 89 next week at the APEX center against Brazil’s Amanda Ribas.

Namajunas, a former strawweight champion is making her second bout at flyweight after an ultra-close decision loss to top three ranked Marion Fiorot in her last outing.

Namajunas trains in Denver at altitude, has championship pedigree and is a fine accompaniment to Mike Davis.

This parlay application allows me to hold substantial price advantage on Namajunas next week provided Davis earns victory as a -310 favorite this Saturday.

Davis -310 to Namajunas -175 1u pays 1.07

Total in Davis vs. Levy 2.5Rds. -210 Over

Jake Filho -185 vs. Ode Osbourne +160 Flyweight (125lbs.)

The smaller twenty-five-foot octagon used in APEX bouts will have negligible effect on these two tiny athletes who enter the cage with differing specialties.

Osbourne, 12-6 is a southpaw striker who will sport a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. He is 4-4 in the UFC displaying skilled striking however his inability to fend off aggressive, forward pressing grappling/wrestling based athletes is extremely worrisome as he struggles mightily if/when grounded.

Osbourne must sell his soul to ensure this fight remains standing and if he can do so, he is in position to get his hand raised.

In Brazilian Filho we have a tough, cagey BJJ artist who is 15-3 professionally and 1-1 in UFC competition.

Despite Filho giving away UFC experience to Osbourne, his dynamic viper-like grappling enables him to engulf opponents then drag them to the dirt for a drubbing. Grappling defines his success.

In a ‘styles make fights’ matchup it is Osbourne who needs to remain standing in order to find success while Filho must find a way to clasp onto the longer striker, ground him, wrap him up, then choke the life out of him.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -210

Props are not yet released for this card, but I expect Filho to submit Osbourne sometime after a competitive first round.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is white hot after realizing huge returns in last week’s UFC 299, get all my releases for this week’s UFC LV 88 at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the aggression!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

This week UFC 299 takes place in Miami Florida. The early preliminary bouts begin at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 5pm PT.

This fight slate is stacked from top to bottom with each fight featuring athletes capable of headlining any fight night or PPV card on their own.

Let us break down a few of the dynamic bouts on this card.

Sean O’Malley -275 Champion vs. Marlon Vera +225 Bantamweight (135lbs) title

O’Malley is currently the UFC’s ‘lighting in a bottle’ as he has similar magnetism/drawing power to Conor McGregor and the Diaz brothers when those fighters were at their apex.

‘Sugar’ is wildly popular with the under thirty-five demographic and his fighting style utilizes his height and reach advantages to the utmost degree. O’Malley compliments those physical traits with a fluidity of defensive movement, sharp snapping strikes and elite footwork.

‘The Suga show’ has evolved into a champion mixed martial artist who is tall, long, precise with his leveraged striking and carries more power than most opponents believe. Further, O’Malley trains diligently on his craft and possesses far more advanced grappling and take down defense than he has been able to display in past bouts.

His opponent, fifth ranked Ecuadorian athlete Marlon Vera is not flashy rather he is gritty, grimy, and dawg-like in his approach to fighting. Vera’s not as gifted physically nor is he as fluent an overall fighter as his opponent but the weaponry Vera totes to the cage is mostly mental. Determination, focus, cardio, and the ability to wear opponents down physically/emotionally by applying unrelenting forward pressure are his assets.

This is a rematch of a 2020 bout that Vera won in the first round by incapacitating O’Malley’s beanpole legs with planned, bludgeoning leg kicks.

In this bout we will see Vera attempt to apply pressure from the opening bell to try to back O’Malley up and force him to use energy in his defense. He will surely work to squelch O’Malley’s ability to move by attacking those legs to incapacitate the champion.

O’ Malley for his part will need to maintain spacing which should not be an issue in the larger thirty-foot octagon. From distance he will then attempt to pepper Vera with jabs, counterstrikes, knees, and elbows as the edgy Ecuadorian presses inward to engage.

O’Malley -200 was the opening price for this fight, he now stands -285 over Vera whose takeback is +245.

Vera’s as or more determined as he was in their first bout, but it is O’Malley whose game has evolved more since these two first met. In that first bout Vera opened the favorite but O’Malley was quickly into the favorite position based on his overwhelming popularity rather than his mixed martial arts acumen.

For those reading, the time to jump the improved O’Malley is now as this price is SURE to rise until the bell for round one chimes.

Vera backers would be wise to remain patient and take every penny of value as Vera who must take this fight into the championship rounds to find success.

One question that still surrounds ‘Sugar’ is his ability to fight at a frenetic pace for more than twelve to fifteen minutes. Vera’s plan will be to drain O’Malley’s gas tank and suck the snap out of ‘Sugar’ then try to dominate him late.

The O’Malley’s plan will be to slice and dice Vera into a bloody pulp by employing constant side to side movement, strike from angles and employ precision counterstriking as Vera attempts to work his way to attack.

Many believe O’Malley is in a favorable matchup here as the UFC takes advantage of his earning power/popularity, but I am not so sure I buy into this.

Vera must be taken seriously in a bout I handicap to be closer than the betting lines indicate.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -165

Benoit St. Denis -215 vs. Dustin Poirier +185 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

St. Denis is a decorated former French first military paratrooper who is huge for the weight class, he is a black belt in Judo and has torn through the organization by winning all four of his victories via finish. His only blemish in the UFC was in his first bout, a fight he took on ultra short notice.

St. Denis, ranked twelfth in the lightweight division opened as a -140 favorite in this fight and has been pounded to the current -215 based on his destructive performances albeit against athletes ranked outside of the top fifteen in the division.

Poirier, the third ranked athlete in the division is the shorter fighter in this matchup, he will be giving away an inch of reach and is seven years older than the ferocious Frenchman.

Poirier possesses a wealth of UFC experience. He has a sturdy wrestling base, brilliant striking acumen, deft footwork and has been in with the absolute elite of the division.

Poirier trains at Florida’s ATT gym in Coconut Creek so he can compete at home without the complexity of having to travel. As well he will command the crowd in this war.

When this fight opened, I was astonished that St. Denis came the favorite and I am more perplexed that he has been bet into this current price. It is my judgement that recency bias is heavily influencing the current betting line toward the Frenchman.

Based on the current betting line it is my position that Poirier is being massively disrespected in this fight.

Once this bout begins Poirier will have to deal with the ferocity, power and immediate aggression of St. Denis who has never competed in a headline fight, nor has he ever prepared for or fought in a five-round battle.

I handicap Poirier to have superior fight IQ which cannot be overlooked here, the defensive prowess, patience and the deft striking to systematically break down St. Denis over time. Time, I believe, is the fulcrum of this fight and I am certain Poirier understands this.

It is my position that St. Denis is rushing into competition with an elite mixed martial artist well to quickly than is warranted.

I am committed to betting Poirier in this spot but will continue to monitor this number while it is on the rise to capture the best price advantage on the underdog who I handicap to in fact be the favorite.

Saturday night I believe Poirier awards St. Denis his PhD. in MMA!

Poirier +185 or better

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. -240 Over.

Curtis Blaydes -110 vs. Jailton Almeida -110 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Seventh ranked Almeida is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant who has ascended the heavyweight rankings in abbreviated time.

He is lightning fast for a man that competes at 245lbs, he is extremely durable and has the single-minded approach to haul opponents down to the mat then discover a way to clasp onto an appendage and snap it.

Almeida is shy in size, weight, and UFC experience and as capable as he is with his submission prowess, his offensive/defensive striking is mediocre and in need of much development.

In Blaydes we have the fifth ranked athlete in the division who enters this fight with a complete mixed martial arts arsenal. Blaydes has power and speed in his hands, he is a world class wrestler, and, in this bout, he will own substantial size, reach, and experience advantages.

Blaydes’ challenges in previous bouts revolve around the fragility of his face.

Athlete’s that are able to bash Blaydes beak early in fights often find success but, in this bout, Blaydes height, weight, reach and experience should put him in position to batter Almeida on the feet then transition to wrestling where he the sizable wrestler will reign damage on the smaller grappler from top position.

In the world of mixed martial arts, it is accepted that world class wrestling is kryptonite to excellent BJJ practitioners. It is exactly this formula that puts Blaydes in position to shine come Saturday night.

Blaydes -110

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -150

The GambLou Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT.

Look for my full set of releases there.

I will also appear Friday 6:30AM PT on VSiN’s Follow the Money program where I will share my best releases. Tune up then tune in!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!