Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 303 Pereira vs. Prochazka: Warrior Mentality

UFC 303 takes place this weekend from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas Nevada.

The PPV event has been upgraded by the addition of a top line main event and highly competitive co main event in place of the originally scheduled charade that featured Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler.

Just last week on this column I mentioned the nimble approach the UFC has in maintaining/replacing signature events when for any number of reasons fighters fall out of bouts. This fight card is a classic example of that.

UFC 303 now becomes a more spectacular card with the addition of Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka as the main event and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes as its co main event.

Last week I took advantage of a rare opportunity to invest in an elite pedigreed top three rated fighter facing a rising but unproven commodity when Robert Whittaker violently knocked out Ikram Aliskerov in the first round.

Whittaker’s dominant finish over Aliskerov thrusts my UFC profitability this year to 15-12 +6.03u.

Favorites in the UFC are 67% (171-80-4) in 2024. My digital win percentage of 55.5% coupled with an average win price of +120 provided readers a great advantage, especially considering the high rate of favorites this year.

This week we’ll have a live raucous crowd for UFC 303 in Las Vegas as well the larger 30’ cage will be in use,

Early prelims begin at 3pm PT, preliminary action starts at 5pm PT and the main card kicks off at 7pm PT.

Alex Pereira -135 vs. Jiri Prochazka +120 II Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Championship

This is a rematch of the championship bout waged just last November when Prochazka opened -135 then closed +105 against Pereira.

In that bout the forward pressing Prochazka’s aggression won him the first round before he became overly reckless. He believed he would be able to compete effectively with an elite, pedigreed world class kickboxing specialist who is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in Pereira and was KO’d four minutes into the second round for that confidence.

Since that fight Pereira went on to knock out Jamahal Hill in one round in April’s UFC 300 while Prochazka found himself in a firefight with Alexander Rakic on that same card. He won via finish in the second round in a fight where he absorbed substantial damage but was unwilling to acquiesce and used his will to earn victory.

Each man takes this fight on short notice in order to help the UFC salvage this fight card when McGregor vacated the main event with a bruise on his little toe.

Prochazka is the number one ranked contender to Pereira’s crown and while this will be a thrilling rematch, there is little reason to believe that the result we witnessed in November should be much different now in July.

Many will claim that Prochazka has a grappling advantage in this matchup, but I beg to differ.

Not only is Pereira a black belt in BJJ but he has been under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira for several years and it is my contention that we have not seen Pereira apply grappling into his fights because he has not had to call upon the specialty.

None of his foes have forced him to defend the takedown nor have they pursued him with any grappling advances. Rather, Pereira’s foes have chosen to compete with the world class striking talent at his strength, standing which is dumbfounding in itself.

Jiri’s unorthodox striking style, his low defensive guard, and his ability to unleash power from any appendage surely make him an adversary to respect even fear but Pereira is the more calculated, matriculated, battle tested power striker as well his defensive abilities are more established than those of Prochazka.

In a fight where either man is able to put the other man’s lights out, I’ll lean to Pereira in this competitive bout simply because he has more ways to earn victory, his defense is substantially more advance and he carries the momentum of his victory over Prochazka just seven months ago into this rematch.

Pereira -130

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -175

Lean over.

Diego Lopes -148 vs. Brian Ortega +125 Featherweight co main event

This co main event is a five-round fight.

It will be Lopes’ first foray into five rounds. The fourteenth ranked Lopes has but four UFC bouts of experience. He lost his debut to a ranked Mosvar Evloev then rebounded by finishing each of his last three unranked foes.

Lopes, who has been extremely active since he entered the UFC opened a +130 underdog for this bout. He will be the taller, longer, younger athlete in the cage on Saturday but he’ll be giving away a great deal of cage experience to his adversary. As well his opponent holds well more five round big fight experience than he as well Brian Ortega, Lopes, foe has competed against the elite of the division over the course of the last couple of years.

Lopes would be wise to try to keep this fight standing where his physical traits can be applied. Though he is a black belt in BJJ it is in the grappling and ground rolling where I give Ortega an advantage.

This fight will offer fans striking, grappling, rolling and submission attempts in what I handicap to be a true display of mixed martial arts from both athletes. That said, Ortega was opened the rightful -150 favorite according to my handicapping which I choose to believe is the more appropriate depiction of these men’s fight abilities TODAY.

In a highly competitive battle where the experience, guile and craftiness of Ortega should be the difference over a man in Lopes that is stepping up in competition for this test, I’ll choose to side with the more experienced fighter who opened the favorite and has now become the underdog.

Recency…. It sometimes tells lies.

Total for this fight: 1.5Rds Over -220

Roman Dolidze -145 vs. Anthony Smith +125 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

I’m breaking down big boy fighters today for there are much more violent tendencies when large men fight than when smaller men compete in the cage. This is evidenced by the fact that the finishing rate for light heavyweight athletes in the UFC since 2014 is 60% which is the highest rate of any division in the UFC except for Heavyweight.

Roman Dolidze takes this fight on just days’ notice. He does his training between California and X-Treme Couture in Las Vegas which takes travel out of the complexity of the short notice nature of this battle but understand that Dolidze competes at middleweight or 185 pounds and steps up in weight class against a legitimate, tenth ranked light heavyweight for this fight.

Anthony Smith accepts this challenge on short notice also and now competes against a talent in Dolidze who brings a much different fighting style than did Smith’s original opponent Carlos Ulberg.

Dolidze is less elite on the feet than Ulberg, in fact he is wildly powerful yet lacking pace, precision and quickness. Where Smith’s original opponent Ulberg had no ability to grapple/wrestle Dolidze is a talented grappling threat and may choose to attack Smith with that approach.

Anthony Smith is elite anywhere a fight takes place as he is a gifted grappler/wrestler and is able to strike effectively though any power in his striking is accrued over time for he does not possess one punch, fight ending power.

Once this fight begins it will be Dolidze who will immediately look to engage, press forward, and unleash power striking to try to put Amith on his heels and in a defensive nature.

Smith will look to boomerang Dolidze’s aggression into the opportunity to take him to the floor then force him to expend energy returning to his feet as Smith will be the larger force in the cage.

Smith will use his crafty veteran experience to bewilder Dolidze on the feet until he can manipulate the smaller Georgian fighter onto the mat where he may then reign strikes, elbows and eventually submission attempts upon Dolidze who is tough, durable and willing yet rough around the edges when it comes to the refinement of fighting.

Dolidze’s approach is quite simple, apply forward pressure and utilize his fight ending power to bludgeon any opponent.

The risk Dolidze takes in competing with Smith is that Smith’s seen every style of light heavyweight foe. He will be more than willing to allow Dolidze to front run until he makes a mistake which is when the highly experienced Smith will make him pay for his aggressive nature.

As I break this fight down, I see the violent nature of Dolidze being eventually subdued by the diplomacy of the more well-rounded mixed martial artist Smith. For that reason, I’ll invest in

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120

Lean over.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT and is available at GambLou.com.

GambLou

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Riyadh: Kang Bang

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night with a main event that was recently changed as original participant Kamzat Chimaev is quite ill and unable to compete. Robert Whittaker will now face Russian Ikram Aliskerov who was scheduled to fight in the co main event on last week’s APEX event.

*Special note that this fight card kicks off EARLY in the States with preliminary action beginning at 9am PT and the main card starts at Noon PT.

I credit the UFC for their tenacity as they’re deft at dealing with fighter changes, suspensions, injuries, and other oddities as they continue to present viable ten to fourteen fight productions on an almost weekly basis.

Last week a rare favorite release lost as Garret Armfield looked potent early in his fight against Brady Heistand then lost energy as Heistand fought the best two rounds of his career and finally submitted Armfield in the third round.

Digital results this year: 14-12 +4.98u

Let’s look at a couple of the fights from Riyadh.

Robert Whittaker -145 vs. Ikram Aliskerov +124 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Aliskerov, 15-1 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC arrives at this main event with two UFC bouts under his belt. He is shy on UFC experience, steps up in class of opponent substantially and must travel across the world to make this fight. Aliskerov’s sole professional loss was years ago to the aforementioned Chimaev.

In this matchup, he transitions from competing against a Brazilian grappling-based foe who had not competed since late in 2021 to the number three ranked Middleweight and former champion of the division who has faced elite adversaries through his twelve years competing in the UFC.

Compoundng the complexity of this fight, Aliskerov must travel around the globe and once again undertake an aggressive weight cut as he was called off last week’s bout just days prior to the event.

Aliskerov is a remarkably similar opponent to Chimaev for Whittaker.

He employs solid striking behind an aggressive forward pressing wrestling/grappling attack.

For Whittaker, he will have little to alter in this brief time frame to effectively prepare for this new opponent.

The same cannot be said for Aliskerov who gains great exposure from fighting Whittaker but now must step into the octagon and fight an elite, well-rounded finisher in a scheduled five round fight when he was training for three.

Once the bell for round one clangs, I see Aliskerov attempting to press Whittaker backwards and force him to defend Aliskerov’s wrestling.
His goal will be to sap the energy from Whittaker by pressing him and forcing him to defend the wrestling advances.

Whittaker however has been in the cage with every form of diverse fighter in his career and that includes elite wrestling talents. He will be unfazed and prepared for Aliskerov’s aggressive approach, his tactics, and his southpaw stance.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight, a number I regarded as fair in this situation if not giving too much respect to Aliskerov. Immediately money came to Aliskerov, which was stunning to be honest.

Eventually this line dropped to Whittaker -135 appeared at which time buyback (much of it from ‘Bout Business Podcast followers) arrived on the former champion.

Currently the number stands Whittaker -148 which in my judgement is still an extremely attractive price on Whittaker.

I find it difficult to believe that Aliskerov, preparing for a totally different style of athlete than Whittaker and an athlete that must now travel across the globe to compete in a scheduled five round fight when he was prepared for three rounds is appropriately prepared mentally and physically to handle this situation successfully.

What Aliskerov is doing by taking this fight is endearing himself to the UFC for saving this main event in Riyadh. No matter the outcome Saturday, Aliskerov has endeared himself to the UFC as a company player and he will be taken care of by the UFC no matter this fight’s outcome in the form of future opportunities to shine.

Whittaker -145

This fight’s total is 2.5 Rds. Over -160

Lean Over

Sergei Pavlovich -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185 Heavyweight (265lbs) co main event

Riyadh gets a couple of top five ranked Russian heavyweights who oh by the way, have trained together in its co main event.

Fifth ranked and veteran UFC athlete Volkov, a black belt in Tsu Shin Gen, a brown belt in Kyokushin Karate and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has fought in numerous organizations prior to arriving to the UFC.

In UFC competition Volkov has amassed an 11-4 record and has won his last three straight via finish after a loss to Tom Aspinal in March of 2022.

Volkov is 6’7” and prefers to keep his fights standing and badger foes by utilizing his striking skills which are supplemented by the fact that he almost always holds height and reach advantages over opponents.

Volkov can be vulnerable against determined, forceful grappler/wrestlers who are adamant about penetrating Volkov’s distance striking in order to gain pocket position to clasp onto him then try to force the giant against the cage or down to the mat where is size, length and striking are muted.

Enter Sergei Pavlovich, an 18-2 Greco-Roman grappling-based athlete who is ultra-aggressive, explosive, powerful and determined to ground foes, gain top position then reign damage upon them.

Pavlovich won five straight heavyweight battles prior to being dominated in his last fight by Tom Aspinall. In that fight, Pavlovich was exposed as he was unable to cope with Aspinall’s mental toughness, nimble feet, speed, and power.

It is my judgement that this heavyweight outcome will be determined by which man can manipulate the fight to his favor.

Volkov must employ a boxing/kickboxing approach and blister the incoming Pavlovich with elbows, knee’s and strikes.

Pavlovich will work to gain inside position on Volkov. From there he may negate Volkov’s striking/kicking ability and then render his own attack by unleashing furious body and head strikes.

I find Pavlovich to be a typical front running fighter. He will try to finish Volkov early in this fight. However, if he is unable to and this fight transitions into the second round his abundance of physical output compromises his mental toughness as he fatigues and fatigues quickly in that bulky frame.

The Volkov plan revolves around space, distance, and IQ. He must be able to weather those furious first few minutes then use his guile to force Pavlovich to defend and back up where Volkov can utilize his size and length to damage the barrel-chested power striker.

It’s my view that Volkov’s experience, cardio, length, and effective striking can be synchronized to produce a victory but only after surviving what may be a wicked first few minutes of output from Pavlovich.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -130

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop early Friday morning Pacific time as weigh-ins for this card take place Thursday evening 11pm PT.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

CWS 6-17-24

9-10 -.62u

NCState +115

NCState/Florida Under 10.5 1 u to earn .91u

Texas AM/Kentucky Under 9.5 1u to earn .91u

check back before the AM game…

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV93 Perez vs. Taira: Flat Taira??

This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for a scheduled thirteen-bout fight card with preliminary action beginning at 4pm PT and the main card following at 7pm PT.

This fight card features eleven fights where the combatants are lightweight (155lbs.) and smaller. Blended finish rates for fights in that size range are: 51.2%. The smaller octagon in use at the APEX may help force confrontation but these smaller, obscure athletes on this production may produce more decision results from this perspective.

Last week I released two ducks as both Thiago Moises, who looked forty- and forty-year-old Jarred Cannonier were both defeated. Moises was never in his bout and looked old, slow, and washed.

Recent rumblings around the UFC surround the suspect stoppage for Cannonier and the potential for an immediate rematch between he and Nassourdine Imavov in France on a card currently scheduled for September 28th. Interesting.

Profitability for my free ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast releases: 9-6-2 +3.41u

Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -180 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Twenty-four-year-old submission savant Taira ships in from Japan and is currently the face of UFC expansion in that Country. He enters thirteenth ranked in the division at 15-0, a purple belt in BJJ as well he is a gifted grappler who has performed exceptionally well in his five UFC fights.

Taira is getting special treatment as Japan is a fertile expansion area for the organization and the UFC is providing him this opportunity to face an established adversary in Perez who is ranked fifth in the division.

Perez is a formidable challenge for the young Japanese fighter. Though Taira is an inch taller and will hold a five-inch arm reach advantage the fact is that the stringency of UFC adversary Taira has faced pales in comparison to the elite level of opponent Perez has battled.

Those who read my columns understand how much I factor a fighter’s body of work and recent fights Perez has thrived in, specifically against Mohammad Mokaev force me to lean to him in this fight.

On top of whom Perez has competed against he’s been active for this will be his third fight since March 2nd while Taira’s last bout was this past December.

Once this fight begins, Taira’s natural athleticism, speed and length will be the tools he employs to try to bewilder Perez.

Taira’s advances will revolve around grappling and trying to coax Perez into a roll on the mat for Taira’s grappling has been foundational in his past victories and Perez has been submitted in prior bouts.

However, being submitted by experienced world class flyweight BJJ practitioners like Deiveson Figueiredo (now the sixth ranked bantamweight) and current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja carries little shame in my handicapping and Taira is not on that level of ability at this point of his fight career.

Perez for his part, will look to forcefully press the younger man backwards and eventually against the cage and make this fight a toe-to-toe throw down. Perez must establish his dominance early in this fight by showing little to no respect for his younger less experienced foe and employ his wrestling acumen to thwart Taira’s grappling and keep this fight on the feet.

Perez’s strength, savvy and who he has competed against force me to favor him in this spot against a talent in Taira who is stepping up substantially in competition for this opportunity.

In this fight Taira will have to prove to mixed martial arts investors that his grappling and overall fight acumen are complete enough to compete against one of the divisions elites in Perez.

Taira opened -250 to Perez +210 and in this situation, it is likely he will be awarded his PhD. in MMA as I judge the current flow of money coming in on the more established mixed martial artist Perez as justified.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145.

Jesse Armfield -175 vs. Brady Hiestand +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

I try highlight bouts that have the potential to be real bangers and this bantamweight battle sets up to be an edge of your seat brawl.

Hiestand is a willing striker with decent wrestling ability. Fighting out of Washington state he is 7-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC.

He dropped his first UFC fight against a solid fighter in Ricky Turcios then came back to defeat a couple journeyman athletes, so he enters carrying momentum.

One concerning aspect to Hiestand is his inactivity. It has been since April of last year since he stepped into the cage. Time off can indicate potential injury issues, yet time may also allow for fighter development so Hiestand must be regarded as dangerous in this situation and surely ready to fire fresh.

On the other corner of the cage stands Garrett Armfield who opened -220 for this fight and is now a more reasonable -175. Armfield has had the opportunity to compete twice since July of last year. His most recent win was against established commodity Brad Katona who he defeated via impressive decision.

Armfield has solid wrestling as well is aggressive on the feet. He is a finisher as he’s earned eight of his ten professional victories via submission or KO. His sole UFC loss was in his UFC debut which he took on short notice and up a weight against a featherweight fury David Onama.

It is the more complete fighting arsenal of Armfield that makes him the legitimate favorite in this bout. Now supplement his fight prowess with a contracting price and it is my handicap that Garrett Armfield is well positioned to continue his climb up the rankings Saturday against Brady Hiestand in what is more than likely a high-octane decision outcome.

Armfield -175

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -195

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day Friday, it offers listeners my best bets for each UFC card.

Access it each week there is a UFC event at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Louisville Cannonier vs. Imavov: Gorilla Warfare

Last week was the time to take advantage of the torrid run favorites this year in the UFC as the parlay of Sean Strickland -240/Jailton Almeida -170 earned 1.0 unit on a 1.06 unit investment.

To date digital readers are in the black as profitability stands 14-9 +8.73u.

10-2 were favorites at UFC 302 pushing chalk to 149-67-4 this year or 67.7% which is as high as I can remember tracking for favorites in the UFC during this past decade!

Regression must be coming but the great question… is when?

This week the UFC is in Louisville, KY for a card with thirteen scheduled fights, six of which are at the Welterweight (170lbs) division or heavier which may contribute to a higher potential for finishes as fight at 170 pounds and higher finish inside the distance at a clip of just over 59%.

Let’s Keep this momentum moving!

Nassourdine Imavov -130 vs. Jarod Cannonier +110 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked Imavov of Russian descent fighting out of France is an ascending talent in this division.

With a solid boxing base Imavov, 13-4 professionally has been developed his mixed martial arts arsenal under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.

5-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has been guided against more diversely and highly talented athletes every step of the way during his brief time in the UFC.

Now he gets his second firm test against a top five talent in Cannonier. In his first top five battle, Imavov was dominated by last week’s co main event winner and ex middleweight champion Sean Strickland.

The question to date is, has Imavov developed enough fight diversity and experience in the year and a half since he was squelched by Strickland to be able to compete effectively against Cannonier who by the way defeated Strickland?

In fourth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete finitely focused on a final run at a title for Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age though he competes like a man many years younger.

Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya.

At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested and his desire to earn another title opportunity drives him.

In this matchup Cannonier will possess advantages in speed, footwork, grappling  and power while Imavov will be the man twelve years younger who will also hold a four inch height advantage. Reach advantage goes to Cannonier which in essence negates any advantage Imavov’s height provides him.

Once the bell for this bout begins, it will be Cannonier who is the forward pressing aggressor while it will be up to Imavov to hold his ground and attempt to bully, berate and batter Cannonier as Cannonier forges ahead to gain pocket position then unload on Imavov.

Both of these men are durable and a finish by either seems unlikely at this point as expressed by the total in this fight coming 4.5 rounds to the over -160.

Imavov believes he’s ready to take the top five position from Cannonier and Cannonier believes that by slaying this young ascending talent he only solidifies further his claim to be the next middleweight in line for a title shot.

I believe Cannonier’s physical attributes, his mental capacity, experience and level of competition faced all provide him advantage in this fight.

Cannonier +110

L’udovit Klein -130 vs. Thiago Moises +110 lightweight (155lbs.)

This fight will be crazy as two willing lefties will get the Louisville crowd lit up with their striking prowess.

The Slovakian Klein is 5-2 in the UFC but his wins were earned against dubious talent many of whom are no longer in the organization. An athlete with a boxing background complimented with some BJJ, Klein steps up his level of opponent faced considerably when he climbs into the cage Saturday against Moises.

Moises is a black belt in BJJ who has trained among the slew of elite and diversely talented lightweight athletes in Florida’s ATT gym before returning to Brazil for this camp to train with the Fighting Nerds team, a white hot group of Brazilian killers.

Moises will be the taller, larger fighter in the cage Saturday and he’s competed against an elite level of lightweight competition which is how and why I favor him in this confrontation.

I believe Moises is the faster striker with more developed BJJ acumen and it’s his comprehensive Jiu Jitsu acumen that sets his advantage in this bout.

Moises +110

Total in this fight 2.5Rds Over -195

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is 15-4 over the last three UFC events and stacking profit each week. The podcast drops this Friday around Noon PT and is available at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy this Louisville fight card.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball

NCAA Baseball: Super Regional Weekend

NCAA College World Series Super Regional Playoffs

We’re in the Super Regionals this weekend and that means we’re in a best of three series format as well the Tourney is down to the top 16 baseball clubs in the NCAA. This year I find that there is a great divide between honest threats to win this tourney. Those teams are Tennessee, Texas AM, Kentucky, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon State and Virginia.

Honest longshots that could make some noise are and surprise this year are North Carolina State and Florida

Then there are  teams that overachieved in the regional round and now hit the road to face face elite baseball talent. Those teams are: West Virginia, Kansas State, UConn, Evansville and Oregon.

GambLou.com members are alive and thriving after the regionals and are poised to profit this weekend in the Supers!

It’s not too late to jump into a GambLou.com Membership for this year’s Tournament but if you do so it’s best to get signed up by Friday as the Super Regionals begin Friday Noon EST!

The College World Series, The Greatest Show on Dirt!