Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Musing and Abusing: Week II observations

Carolina on my mind benching Young for Dalton will display how far Carolina as an organization really is….was it the QB position or is the issue a little larger than that? We’ll know soon. I for one support Andy Dalton the Red Rifle. Dude is an NFL QB. Period.

-The Ravens O-Line is in need of real development, as is there defensive backfiield.

-Raven QB Jackson is one athletic chap but his passing aptitude/ability/effectiveness is less than average.

-Buc’s do the Lions at home, Raida’s beat the Ravens after being down big, Vikes vex the Niners and the Saints exorcise the Pokes. If you’re betting the NFL you best ‘hate’ your money if you wish to earn.

Why don’t any of the NFL rookie QB’s look like CJ Stroud did last year? Because Stroud is surely the exception not the rule.

-Speaking of Texans? That Houston Texans to have most wins in the NFL 20/1 ticket I hold is breathing.

-Prayers for the young QB Tagovailoa who has great talent but now must prioritize just exactly how he wishes to spend the rest of his life. Let’s hope whatever the decision the young man lives a healthy full life.

-As far as those bastard Cops who abused Tyreek Hill a week ago, those ignoramuses need to be disciplined and I mean publicly and seriously. Bullies!

Hey, there’s nothing more honorable than an ethical conscientious cop (and there is an abundance of them) but there’s also nothing worse that a ‘pig with an attitude’ (and there are well too many of those also).  Those fat jagg’s in Miami need to shovel poop in the everglades for a couple months.

-Injuries this week were apparent and as this season moves into the fall we’ll see many, many, more. You see, the NFL cares very little about the player and that is evidenced by the fact that they’re parting out teams on primetime TV to suit the networks and boost their ratings…that comes at the expense of the player.

Need evidence?

In the last 5 years no teams played 3 games in 10 days. This year 10 teams do*.

In the last 5 years 5 teams had to endure 4 games in seventeen days…this year the NFL has 5 teams on the schedule that must do so*.

This year there are 66 games on the NFL schedule where one team has a 3+ day rest over the other team*.

-The Carolina franchise is in deep do-do. Deep, and it appears there is little hope outside of Charlotte for this bunch.

-Bucs, Saints, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Steel, Texans, Vikes, Seahawks are all undefeated, who’ll be the last to lose a ballgame?

*I’ll reference Warren Sharp for this information

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 306 Noche del los Chingons

This week the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with it’s Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.

It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70’s during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches almost all of which I attended.

Attending those fights, I observed AND absorbed of the passion of the Mexican fight fans as well the valor, guts, toughness and never quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.

This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155lbs. and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30’ Octagon.

Last week we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability which stands 22-17 +10.35u.

Let’s find another winning position in this Noche event!

Champion Sean O’Malley -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Champion O’Malley has gone from a young skinny precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well versed, and complete mixed martial artist.

O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically and within the realm of MMA.

He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his own momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.

Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct.

However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last seven years or so competing against with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have put him in position to both be confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types but more importantly to do so with the confidence that the opppo0onent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability.

O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.

Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup he is giving away massive advantages in age, height and limb reach to the champion.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think or act for they are constantly moving forward to press, smother and engage.

O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.

Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only and by that I mean that he has one single point of focus in fights and that is to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat then from top control open up the faucet and reign never ending ground and pound.

O’Malley requires space in order to flow while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a strait jacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.

Both of these athletes have vied against the elite of the division, and both belong in this fight, however only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Over -154*

Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him from his strength while the O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in position catch Merab with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.

It’s my judgement that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation and at this point those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now as his price is only going to go up while Merab maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price they can on the Tasmanian Devil.

Champion Alexa Grasso -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110 Women’s Flyweight title

This is the trilogy fight for these ladies.

Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound for pound women’s MMA GOAT.

Yes, even over Amanda Nunes however, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s thirty-six and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.

It’s my judgement that Shevchenko’s shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant Angelo Dundee taught me years ago.

Dundee would warn that; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills.

Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to will it. However, she’s now thirty-six and coming off two tough five round battles against Grasso, the current champion.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.

For Grasso, she’s had months to reprepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.

In both previous fights Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success and in each case those skills were enough to earn her the title.

Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this fight both camps understand that little separates these two world class fighters.

Different in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts and each one will be yearning to see the Mexican dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!

In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in history of the flyweight division let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout the course of history.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -200

I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.

Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Fight of the night!

Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6’3” and he sports a 75” reach allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.

He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries as he lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse one punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.

Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes that have the ability to forge forward, cut the cage and corner Bahamondes, thus taking his greatest asset away from him, his distance.

From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights the long, tall drink of water that is Bahamondes can begin to slow and it’s here where he is vunerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? That answer for me is an unequivocal yes.

Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is in the aggressiveness of Torres, his pressure, power strikes/kicks and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.

Torres striking is high output as he lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes is the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell for it is in Torres ability to mix up his attack that make him the more well dangerous fighter in this matchup.

Torres -120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Pick-em

Heavy lean to over

Friday mid-day PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com

Enjoy the Tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Musing and Abusing

Week one overreactions are the first order of business today. Remember NFL Enthusiasts, in 5 days you ‘ll have 100% more NFL data than you do now. Yes, we know more than a week ago but the data is still to thin to make sound betting decisions upon.

Tomlin does more with less than most head coaches. Meanwhile, the Bears won a game without an offensive TD and now travel into Houston where that offense seems in mid-season form.

Hate to see these talented young men get dinged up in these games. I feel for Love and the Pack. Let’s hope he and the others injured get back ASAP.

Over reaction games (teams) this week: Ravens, Chargers, Niners, Commies, Chiefs Texans and the Eagles.

Hate the money teams: Raiders, Panthers, Titans, Vikes, G’men, Bungles and the Dirty Bird.

When I was a fan I loved the Browns. Man am I glad I am not a fan anymore as the Browns have stepped on their sleeve in every way shape and form with this QB situation. I feel for those poor fanatics.

The Rams look ahead was -3 against the Cardinals and today the Cards are -1….as Lynyrd Skynyrd sang, EWWW that smell!

Once Josh Allen assimilates with those WR’s that team could competed in the AFC East with the Fish and Jets Jets Jets.

Niners under 11.5 ….do not fear.

Bucs to win the NFC South you say? Who would be stupid enough to take them +320 to win that division? Oh, that’s me.

No way Commie QB Jaylen Daniel plays the whole year. No F’ing way to fragile and will have to do it himself too much.

Carolina QB Bryce Young displays little confidence in his play in his second offense while in his first I like what I see in Bo Nix.

Bears at Texans Sunday night. That’s going to be a ballgame.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV 97 Burns vs. Brady: The Brady Punch

After a week away the UFC returns to Las Vegas for two events, the first this week at its APEX center then next week at T-Mobile the world will get to experience UFC Noche an extravaganza that will be held in the new Las Vegas Sphere and headlined with two world championship bouts.

Digital results after the first eight months of the year stand 21-17 +9.28u which is a solid return considering that favorites this year in the UFC are winning at a 67.3% clip.

This week there are thirteen scheduled bouts for the smaller cage at the APEX. Three of the fights happen at 170lbs and above so hopefully we’ll get to witness violence from the many smaller bodied combatants!

Sean Brady -185 vs. Gilburt Burns +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Two gifted grapplers will meet in the middle of the octagon Saturday and rather than grope, grapple, and grind, these two will compete at least for a time on the feet. There Burns does possess the more developed striking while Brady has a believer’s confidence in his.

Brady will strive from the opening bell to drive this battle to the mat. On the ground this fight figures to be fascinating for the American Brady is an accomplished black belt in BJJ with Muay Thai skills and will be the slightly larger man while the Brazilian is a third-degree black belt with developed striking diversity and power. That said, he did spend much of his career at 155 lbs.

On the ground this fight can prove to be fascinating because watching the different dialects of BJJ compete at an elite level would be a treat, one I would love to witness especially with the larger men.

However, that type of high output, sustained effort is an approach that may well favor the younger athlete because of the enormous amount of energy needed to employ such a tactic for fifteen minutes let alone twenty-five.

Fighters seven years and younger than their opponents win roughly 65% of the time in the UFC and it is in this statistic that I believe Brady will hold advantage.

Burns will look crisp, sharp, and effective early but he must be able to sustain it. The constant forward pace/grind/pressure from Brady will be forced on Burns in an attempt to both negate his offense and tax the thirty-eight-year-old warrior of his cardio. Then, over the course of the championship rounds begin to display his advantage in this fight, his youth and ability to compete for a full five rounds.

This fight opened as a dead ‘pick-em,’ so I’ll watch how this line moves through the week and make any decision once the price stabilizes.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -180

This fight may well end up at 4.5Rds. so I’ll jump the Over 3.5 -180 and use it as the second leg of a parlay. (see below).

Natalia Silva -300 vs. Jessica Andrade +250 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Brazilian athlete and former champion in the UFC Jessica Andrade is a storied mixed martial artist who has competed effectively and for championships at two different weight classes in the UFC.

She’s competed against the elite of two divisions for twenty-seven fights spanning eleven years, so her resume is complete, yet she hungers to continue to be active.

Andrade’s found herself toiling in recent personal issues that mandate she stay busy and earn to help her work her way back into financial stability. This is why she has been taking as many fights so close together as we have witnessed over the last several months.

Andrade’s surely a future hall of fame UFC athlete but in 2024 and now thirty-two years old, her skills, particularly her speed, quickness and footwork have waned which is unfortunate as Andrade is undersized for flyweight and has been used to being the more fleet, skilled, athletic fighter in the cage. That will NOT be the case this Saturday.

In this matchup, Andrade is faced with a future star in Natalia Silva, a Brazilian mixed martial artist with refined striking and grappling skill, tremendous speed, and huge momentum.

While Silva is stepping up in class of opponent, that fact is that she’ll be three inches the taller fighter with the same amount of reach advantage as well Silva’s better than five years younger than Andrade.

Silva’s youth as with Sean Brady will be the assets both athletes rely upon to try to get their hands raised this weekend.

When the bell to round one rings, we’ll witness Silva’s advantages of speed, quickness and footwork are tangible and real. Those skills will guide her through this fight provided she has the cardio and level-headedness to maintain her distance and composure from the incoming raging fury of Andrade.

Silva must keep Andrade at the end of her strikes and blister the former champion with precision strikes, kicks knees and elbows as she tries to enter the pocket.

Speed kills.

Silva -300 parlay to ‘Over 3.5 -180 Rounds Burns/Brady.’

1unit invested returns 1.07 units

GamLou.com ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day T Friday. My final releases for this fight card can only be found there!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!