Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Musing and Abusing: Week 7 style

“I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd, when they said, sit down, I stood up”!

Springsteen ‘Growing up”

Sport is cruel.

I wish to offer prayers and best wishes to young Aiden Hutchison. The violence those men deal with daily is beyond most people’s understanding. To see his leg snapped like a twig Sunday only exemplifies how lucky the few are that get to compete at such a high level.  NFL athletes undertake extreme risk on a daily basis.

Davante Adams is going to resuscitate the Jets! I’m not so sure I believe that… the Jets need horses on the O-Line in my estimation, but Adams can’t but help that run game a bit… time will tell with these Jets, Jets, Jets.

One thing’s for certain, as there IS time for them to right that downbound train.

How ‘bout them Cowboys?

Jerry Jones is doing to the Cowboy’s what the children of Papa Bear Halas have done to the Bears. No doubt intentions were and are ‘admirable’ but institutional prowess and execution are flawed. When ‘one’ does not belong in the football business, it shows!

The best news for the Pokes and the Bears? There exists….the Browns and the Bears and Boys ain’t quite there…..yet!

Don’t think I have forgotten about the Raiders!

What Al’s son has done to the culture of that team is unfortunate. Sure, the franchise, like that in Dallas and Chicago even Cleveland are appreciable wealth assets but what about pride? What about serving your people? What about showing up with some dad gummed civic pride for the fans?

Philly? They got head coaching issues and what’s about to boil over there may not be pretty. Someone in the NFC East better watch out for the Commies.

NFC South was supposed to be the cheap suits, yet it seems like they have two legit playoff contenders there.

I hope Tagovailoa can play and maintain full health again. I was lucky enough to be in a huddle from 1967 to 1993 and I understand the importance of team for men of that age. Everlasting bonds man.

Jet’s fire Salah. Unfair, hail yes but it IS the nature of this profession. Salah will be back as soon as he wants to say yes to the many offers to D Coordinate he’ll receive.

Bills, Vikes, Lions, Pack, Texans, Chiefs, Hawks and Steel….Super Bowl winner comes from that group from this week 7 perspective.

The Jags zigged when they should have Jagged. Young QB who entered the NFL with accolades is simply not performing to his reputation…that said, the front office geniuses dumped WR talent this offseason like it was cancerous?

I see some games this week that offer great opportunity based on the reactions (as in over) from last week…. Week 6 was a public slaying of the bookmakers capped off by the Bills cover MNF for the cherry on top.

While I won’t ‘cry no tears’ for the bookies, I’ll assure you that there will be some public confident bet’s coming in on the NFL this week.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV98 Royval vs. Taira: Flat Taira?

This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.

The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.

Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.

Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.

Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.

Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.

Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.

In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.

Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?

The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.

While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125

Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

These two were scheduled to fight July 20th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.

Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.

Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.

Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.

In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.

Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.

Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265

Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)

The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!

Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.

After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.

In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.

Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.

Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.

Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155

Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.

Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.

While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.

Carpenter -190*

Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree: Ovince Von Flue?

Salt Lake City, UT is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.

Early Preliminary action begins at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 7pm PT.

This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged thirty-six or older.

The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.

Lat week I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u

Alex Pereira -450 vs. Kalil Roundtree +385 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title

Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.

The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the lady’s bantamweight title fight for this event and they went directly to Pereira as he is as popular with fight fans as he is lethal inside the cage against opponents.

Since July of 2022 Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz which together is proof that this monster is able to compete for a full twenty-five minutes and against absolute elite level light heavyweight competition.

In Roundtree we get the eighth ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists and committed to an aggressive dose of leg bludgeoning kicks.

Roundtree’s level of competition faced wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed so his step up in competition is substantial if I may be understated.

Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira who will be three inches the taller man in the cage and will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.

Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs so there is no real quandary in the fact that Pereira came -450 at opening for this fight.

This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.

Roundtree has intelligence, he has power and a forceful will, so we know he’s coning into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.

Total in this fight:  1.5Rds. Over -145

Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Pena is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022 which also happened to be the last time Pena competed in the octagon.

Pena’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue blet in BJJ Pena backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.

In Rocky Pennington we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ earned the title in a dynamic win over Myra Buena Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in similar grinding fashion.

Once this fight begins it will be Pena who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash damaging strike upon the Champion.

As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington as she must eliminate Pena’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as is the champion.

Standing Pena will hold advantage in this championship fight while in the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight in order for her to hold advantage.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angel Dundee would say and in this championship fight where the bout takes place will be indicative to who is in control of this fight.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince St. Preux +250 light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Spann, thirty-three is 6’5” tall is a front running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division however after the first round or so Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.

Spann’s power, cardio and more importantly he confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. It’s my opinion that his obstacles are mental for the man is tall, long, and violently natured.

In St. Preux we have an athlete that at 41 seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.

St. Prez’s more well rounded as a fighter for his striking is better than average and his forward pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout St. Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s one Kennedy Nzechukwu in an oh so close decision.

Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by St. Preux and Ovince must force this fight into the second round and beyond in order to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.

St. Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.

Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night and it’s my position that St. Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.

St. Preux +250

.5 unit investment

Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over

Lean over for St. Preux best interest!

Friday mid-day my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.