Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC FN Macao Yan vs. Figueiredo: Yan to Yan combat

This week the UFC travels around the globe to Macao, China for its Fight Night Macao.

The event’s preliminary action begins at 3am EST Saturday morning so prepare yourselves accordingly fight fans!

There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card but 4 of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC’. I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC so I have not handicapped these four bouts which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four in the 170lbs welterweight division or larger where there the finish rates are higher.

UFC Macao features seven Chinese and one Mongolian athlete who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.

There are but two remaining fight cards in ’24 after this event from Macao. The next is December 7th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.

Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300 Bantamweight (135lbs) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo, the former Flyweight (125lbs) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135lb. competition but competition from outside the top of the division.

At 125lbs. Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights but as he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135 division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.

My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: he fights like a cornered, wounded, pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators. Yan’s 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,

Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Where Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, Yan at a higher weight class has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% take down defense.

Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bone fide, true test of his bantamweight ability.

In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.

Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever will be the taller, larger, younger (5 years) man in the cage when these two tussle.

Once the fight starts it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo sooner than later into trying to apply his specialty of grappling. It’s then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take Yan down and engage in BJJ he may thrive.

However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.

It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -170

Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Kenan Song +160 Welterweight (170bs)

Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable, he takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.

Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes but he is now forty years old. After a couple of losses Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.

Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday which makes him mighty dangerous.

In Song we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage, he’ll be taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.

Song, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.

Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization which will bring out the best in each combatant.

The total in this fight of 2.5Rds Over -160 indicates a three round competitive battle. With that in mind I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home Country.

Song +160

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Goat race

Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.

The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.

UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.

Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.

Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.

Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.

Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title

Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.

Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.

Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.

In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.

Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.

He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’

Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.

Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.

We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.

Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.

Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.

It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.

At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.

I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.

Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!

In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.

In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.

Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.

Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.

He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.

The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?

To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.

Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.

I believe Oliveria earns victory again.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165

Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.

69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.

Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.

So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.

Three Fighter Parlay

Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.

Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.

Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.

1.47u returns 1.0u

Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.

The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.

The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.

Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.

This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.

Underdog correction?

I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.

Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.

Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.

In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.

His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.

In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.

Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.

Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.

There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.

Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.

So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.

I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205

Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)

Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.

Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.

Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.

He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.

Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s.  Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.

If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.

If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.

Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380

Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.

Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.

A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.

Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.

Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.

Trocoli +155 .5u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Week 10 Musing and Abusing

NFL observations from a betting perspective

The Arizona Cardinals should be credited for their efforts and results so far this year. Let’s see how the second half transpires but this team is reacting well to head coach Jonathan Gannon.

Injuries seem high? Yes, because pre-season work effort is minimal. It’s simple.

Saquon Barkley’s play this past weekend was a perfect example of an athlete training for any condition then when confronted with danger, allows instinct and athletic prowess to rule. He never had a chance to think about or set up that move, it was pure instinct.

De’Von Achane is a talented player, and the Dolphins have a group of athletes on offense that can dominate provided they are not competing in inclement weather, and they have a full complement of team weaponry. That defense however is horrendous.

Quietly the Eagles are 6-2 and have not put it all together yet.

There are many teams that are still putting it together. They include the Hawks, Rams, Buc’s, Chargers, Cards, Commies and Steel.

11 of 32 teams have 2 or 3 wins after week 9…. That’s pretty telling results for a league striving to create parity at all costs.

Houston plus 3.5 against the red-hot Lions this week? Yep. This is the first home game for the Texans in a month and the Lions arrive off an emotional win against division rival Minnesota last week. Great spot for Houston.