December 2024 | Gamblou

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the final UFC event of 2024, Fight Night Tampa Covington vs. Buckley.

This card is scheduled for 13 fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and main card 7pm PT.

Three of the 13 bouts feature larger 170lb men or larger and the thirty-foot cage will be employed.

Last week favorites continued their torrid tear by realizing a 12-2 result pushing chalk to 70.5% on the year.

I feel fortunate to have been able to derive profit through this run of chalk in 2024. Further, this column plans on being front and center when (and in my judgement it is only a matter of ‘when’), this favorite foray finally flails.

I am unable to grade last week’s Digital release of Volkov +285 as a winner despite the fact that he won that dad gummed fight. The judges awarded the decision to Cyril Gane in a result that was simply incorrect. I feel for these athletes as their career, their livelihood, their earnings all depend on judges most of whom are categorically incapable of understanding how to accurately grade UFC bouts. Choi +120 and Over -170 in that same Choi vs. Landwehr fight both cashed.

Into this final card, digital releases this year stand 28-26 +7.48u.

The next UFC card takes place January 11, with that in mind, this column will return January 7th with my breakdowns of the first fight slate of 2025.

Let’s Fight!

Joaquin Buckley -260 vs. Colby Covington +230 Welterweight (170lbs) main event

Buckley, from East St. Louis is the eighth ranked fighter in the division. He is short, squat, highly explosive, profusely powerful and he enters this fight with tremendous momentum.

Buckley opened a +145 underdog for this fight to his adversary Colby Covington, but the chalk changed from Covington to Buckley in short time.

The market seems to believe that Buckley is poised to conquer sixth ranked Covington.

Covington enters as a highly divisive figure. Many people hate his guts while others understand that his flakey UFC persona is simply an a schtick designed to allow him to play the heel while ratcheting up the eyeballs looking in to watch him be dominate or be pulverized.

In this fight It’s Covington who is the taller, longer athlete in the cage. He’ll have tremendous experience angle over Buckley as well he’s been in the cage with a far more stringent set off adversary than has his foe Saturday.

Covington’s wrestling ability can’t be matched for Buckley’s wrestling though developed is not on the same plane as is Covington’s. Covington uses volume striking to set up his wrestling while Buckley utilizes his wrestling to keep fights standing so he may enter the pocket and bludgeon his opponent with power strikes/kicks.

Buckley’s strikes have violent effects on his adversaries, he’s lightning quick and enters this fight having earned victory in his last five fights albeit against athletes that are not elite within the division.

Once this fight begins, it will be Buckley’s explosion and aggression that will be matched against Covington’s unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. Covington’s unending ability to compete 100% throughout twenty-five full minutes of war will be tested by the power and explosivity of Buckley’s strikes.

Explosive power against stamina and guile is how I view this fight and while Buckley is the younger, faster, more violent fighter, it is Covington whom I believe will force Buckley into the third round and beyond where ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all.’

Once this fight enters those later rounds, look for Covington’s guile, experience, wrestling and cardio to rule.

Covington +230

Total in this fight: 4.5Rounds Over -150

Daniel Marco -160 vs. Adrien Yanez +135 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

This has the makings to be one of the top battles in this last quarter of 2024.

Yanez, of Mexican descent is tough, durable, aggressive and enters this fight after getting back into the win column with a dominant performance over a game Vinicius Salvador.

Yanez’ father was a golden gloves boxer, so he grew up with a sturdy boxing base then at an early age added BJJ to his weaponry. He is currently a black belt in BJJ.

He fights Peruvian Daniel Marcos who enters this fight undefeated at 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC though that record should really be 4-0.

Marcos is very athletic, has fast, heavy hands and a deliberate leg numbing kicking attack. Each man’s faced a similar level competition. These two fight for ranking as the victor in this fight will be jettisoned into the top fifteen of an oh so very competitive bantamweight division.

Marcos must defend his undefeated mark while Yanez, who lost his undefeated record two fights back, is focused solely on taking the zero away from Marcos in dominating fashion.

Do not miss this battle.

The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -120

Joel Alvarez -350 vs. Drakkar Klose +295 Lightweight (155lbs)

Alvarez is your typical bully as he is oversized for lightweight but cuts dynamic amounts of weight in order to hold advantage over his adversaries in battles. He’ll be taller than Klose by four inches, he’s five years the younger man and he’ll hold a couple inch reach advantage in arms and legs.

A brown belt in BJJ with decent striking acumen Alvarez was delivered his PhD. In MMA three fights back when Armen Tsarukyan mopped the floor with him. Since that setback Alvarez defeated both Marc Diakiese and Elvis Brener, two formidable lightweight opponents.

In thirty-five-year-old Klose we have an athlete that explodes like a barrel packet tightly with dynamite. He’s more experienced than Alvarez and has faced solid competition on his way to this a foundational fight for him.

Early in this fight, Alvarez will attempt to maintain distance and strike with Klose cautiously then eventually try to lure him into some form of clasp in order to try to ground him and initiate the ground battle for seventeen of Alvarez’s wins professionally have come via submission.

For Klose, his strategy is clear, smother the longer taller Alvarez with unrelenting forward pressure. Back him up and batter his body with hooks, crosses, and knees. Klose must attach his forehead to Alvarez’s chest where his inside position will make it easy for him to heave heavy power shots to the taller man’s body then move to the chin. Klose has one job Saturday night, pressure Alvarez backwards.

‘Styles make fights’ and in this one the tell will be ‘distance.’ If Klose can manage this fight to a standing war in a phone booth he will win. Should Alvarez be able to clasp, clinch, and ground Klose the night will be a long one for Klose. Great clash of fighting styles.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150

Friday at midday PT the Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com. Access my final releases for this card there.

Thank you for reading and merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.

This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.

T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.

This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.

2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.

Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.

Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.

He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.

Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.

In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.

Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.

Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.

Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.

Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.

In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.

This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.

Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.

In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.

For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.

Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.

Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.

Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.

Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.

Volkov +285

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300

Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.

Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.

‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.

In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.

Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.

In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!

As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.

Choi +120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Heavy lean over

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

UFC FN Tampa Covington vs. Buckley: Run for Covington

UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura: Japanese knee’s

GambLou.com

It’s Business!