March 2025 | Gamblou

Last week’s Fight Night fight saw underdogs realize a 6-7 result. Favorites in the UFC this year are 56.4%, down considerably from last year’s 70.5%.

Two digital releases last week split resulting in a -.30 deficit, digital results 2025: 6-5 +.80u

Preliminary action for UFC LV 104 begins Saturday morning at 10am PST with the main slate kicking off at 1pm PT. This event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which are in divisions weighing 170lbs and above. I track these ‘big boy bouts’ to try to project how much violence/finishing potential may be on any particular card but that does not always hold as just last week, there were only three larger weight bouts, but nine of the thirteen fights ended in finish!

Three US fighters populate this London card, so we’ll witness a diversity of international talent, fight weaponry and athlete physiques entering this fight card from London town.

This March fight card has seen many of its thirteen matchups change favorites.

Leon Edwards +170 vs. Sean Brady -200 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Philadelphian Sean Brady is the division’s fifth ranked fighter. He’s a black belt in BJJ with a Muay Thai striking base to compliment his grappling.

Brady tore through the lower ranks of the division until he met up with current champion Belel Muhammad who pulverized Brady in a one sided second round striking clinic/exhibition.

Since that bout, Brady’s earned victory in two straight fights, however those opponents were truthfully not legitimate top ten talents.

Brady’s forceful with his forward pressure and strives at all costs to smother opponents, get up close then wrestle/grapple. His striking is in development and not overly refined, precise nor powerful for he uses striking only to position himself for the clasp.

Brady’s strike defense is of real concern and the fact that his last couple of opponents really could not expose him in that capacity seems to be getting overlooked.

Fromer champion Leon Edwards is now ranked as the number one contender. The Londoners’ advantages in this fight are many. He’s four inches taller and the southpaw will sport a two-inch reach advantage over Brady which is sure to present advantage when this fight is standing.

Leon’s a much better wrestler than most understand, and it is in his well-rounded fight arsenal, his physical attributes, and his ability to evade strikes that makes him a complete adversary before mentioning his experience in five round main event spotlights.

Leon’s a deft boxer striker with fluid movement whose striking has an accumulating effect because of the diversity of strikes/kicks he hurls. He’s also a solid wrestler with a black belt in BJJ who has faced the elite of the division.

Despite his accolades, the MMA community seems to believe that Leon’s performance in the first Usman fight (outside its last minute) then his display against Muhammad is his MO. I may beg to differ.

In Edwards last fight about a year ago, Belal Muhammad decided he was going to use his world class forward pressing wrestling acumen/pressure to smother Leon and wrest the title from him which is exactly what he did in a one-sided decision.

The question into this fight is whether Brady can duplicate that effort for a full five rounds. Surely his camp’s blueprint for success was seen in that Muhammad victory.

Once this fight starts it is my contention that Leon’s fluidity of movement, his take down defense, his precision striking/kicking and finally his five-round championship experience against the elite of the division he has faced will present him advantage without saying anything about that home crowd!

Edwards +170

Patience, wait to get the absolute best number on the Englishman.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Carlos Ulberg -275 vs. Jan Blachowicz +240 light heavyweight (205lbs) co main

Former champion Blachowicz enters this fight off a 2023 split decision loss to Alex Pereira then shoulder reconstruction immediately following. Usually that much time away is concerning but for a cagey veteran like Blachowicz, the time away had to have helped him prepare appropriately to arrive fresh and ready to fire in this most important battle.

Third ranked light heavyweight Blachowicz has a well-rounded MMA arsenal and he’s durable, experienced, and surely coming into this fight with the desire to make another run at the title, but he faces a young lion with momentum and ferocity.

The concern for the forty-two-year-old Blachowicz is that in this fight he is coming off injury and facing a man eight years his junior, who is taller, longer and coming in with an abundance of momentum.

In sixth ranked Carlos Ulberg we get an Aussie from City Kickboxing who is tall, long, young, and extremely well coached/prepared. A kickboxer/striker by nature Ulberg’s ability to grapple/wrestle will be tested in this fight if Blachowicz has any chance at winning.

Ulberg will be the stronger, faster, quicker man in the cage. He sports a positive 2.93 significant strikes per minute to Blachowicz’s +.50 so it will be at range that Ulberg will want to vie with the former champion, and it will be inside the pocket where Blachowicz must position himself.

Ulberg’s wrestling is not well established despite the fact that he sports an 83% take-down defense. It’s important to understand who he has fought, as his competitors had striking based fighting styles, none had accomplished forward pressing abilities. Ulberg’s simply not competed against the depth of wrestler/grappler than Blachowicz is even at forty-two years of age.

Fight fans will determine soon enough if Ulberg’s takedown defense is developed enough for him to dictate that this fight is to be competed on the feet. A stand-up bout at distance is mandatory for his chances of winning.

Should Ulberg be able to keep this fight at his reach, it is my belief that he has the ability to dominate Blachowicz with his movement, length, and superior striking/kicking acumen.

Jan must be able to plant his forehead on Ulberg’s chest, maul him over time and sap the strength/cardio from the blistering striker by forcing him to defend.

Jan MUST be able to force Ulberg to defend his wrestling early in this fight to gain his advantage late. Blachowicz next step is to force the rangy striker to the floor where the advantage will be all Blachowicz.

Where this fight takes place will determine everything in this fight and at this price I must regard Blachowicz, despite his forty-two years as live.

Blachowicz +240

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -185

Marcin Tybura -120 vs. Mick Parkin +100 heavyweight (265lbs.)

Big Boys.

Polish fighter and eighth ranked Marcin Tybura is the athlete who arrives in the octagon Saturday with an advantage in level of competition faced he as well owns a depth of UFC experience.

A black belt in BJJ, the thirty-nine-year-old Tybura is more stringent grappling and in close quarters for his striking is telegraphed, slow, and singularly launched. In most fights and in this one especially Tybura’s success will be found in his grappling. Should he position Parkin on the canvas, he’ll possess great advantage over this less experienced foe.

Englishman Mick Parkin began as Tom Aspinall’s training partner but has slowly evolved into a recognized talent after going 4-0 in his first four UFC bouts.

The twenty-nine-year-old Englishman is a forward pressing power puncher who is long on durability and cardio. Despite the fact that he’s defeated athletes no longer in the UFC or on the cusp of its cutting board, Parkin’s looked like a fighter with promise and one that is quickly improving.

Tybura represents a certain step up for Parkin but Parkin’s one-inch height and reach advantages and the fact he competes in front of his hometown people must be considered. Then add the fact that fighters with ten years of youth advantage win at a 67% rate and we have ourselves what I consider to be a live local fighter.

Parkin +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available with all of my final releases for this UFC London card. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

Edwards is +175 at Westgate

originally published VSiN.com 3-18-25

This Saturday’s UFC FN 104 takes place at the UFC’s APEX facility where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans will be in attendance. Preliminary action begins at 1pm PST with the main card dropping at 4pm PST.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts for this event with the preliminary action kicking off at 1pm PST. Four big boi fights which are matchups featuring welterweight fighters or larger populate the card, and the mix of countries. which is always interesting includes (beside the usual Brazil, Russia, US) Congo, Venezuela, South Korea, and Ecuador just to name a few.

Gathering trained combatants from every corner of the world who arrive to battle with every conceivable combination of fight specialties and a focused mentality all sporting diverse physiques is what fascinates me about the UFC. These athletes, all prepared for war are then led into a cage to determine whose fighting method is the greatest is man’s earliest passion …and I must say that it is mine also.

Favorites you ask?

Why yes, this year they’re 51-34-5 or 56.6% which is fourteen plus points lower than what we experienced last year! That’s a big regression but it is early…let’s see if this regression is sustainable as investing in underdogs is becoming fun/profitable again.

Marvin Vettori -155 vs. Roman Dolidze +125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked Dolidze arrives to this rematch without major fight decorations however his mixed martial arts arsenal is forged from Sambo and BJJ which he developed as a youth. Dolidze also won a Grappling FILA world championship.

Dolidze is aggressive and forward pressing in attack. He is strong, determined, durable and experienced. His cardio, once a concern, has evolved as witnessed by his five round decision loss to top ranked Nassourdine Imavov last February.

Five years the older fighter at thirty-six, Doilidze’s remained active as this will be his third fight in eight months as well, he takes this rematch after coming off of two straight wins.

Vettori, thirty-one, is the eighth ranked middleweight. He has dominated the division’s masses but struggles when he competes against the elite middleweights where his forceful, bullying tactics and singularly dimensioned attack are less effective.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see much of what we saw in the first fight between these two except this competition will/should last twenty-five minutes as opposed to fifteen as this is a main event fight.

Should a finish arise, it’s my judgement that Vettori could find a way to ground and pound the Georgian late in this fight should Dolidze struggle with his old foe, cardio.

I regard these two athletes as being in different hierarchies of the middleweight division. Vettori is elite and it’s my judgement that Dolidze is not to that level.

This fight is lines 4.5Rds over -215 so if it’s fireworks, finishes and a frenetic pace you fancy then it may be best to watch the earlier fights on this card.

Vettori -155

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -195 vs. Chidi Njokuani +170 Welterweight co main event

Fireworks!

While grappling, wrestling, and clenching may best define what we expect from the main event, the co main event should award us with two fighters who are characterized by their pure power striking, forceful forward aggression, and flamboyant fighting styles.

Chidi is a lightning fast, explosive power striker who is trained in kickboxing, Muay Thai and has earned a black belt in BJJ. For up to six minutes of competition time, Njokuani exhibits dynamic abilities however after six minutes his effectiveness can wane.

Chidi’s owns a four-inch reach advantage and will sport a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, both great advantages in a fight that remains standing which is expected in this war.

Chidi’s height, reach and straight down the middle striking will provide certain leverage over Elezeu dos Santos especially early in the fight when he is firing fresh.

For the Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos, his approach revolves around staying out of Njokuani’s range early in this fight. How he executes this will be fascinating to determine. Does he try to play the stand-up game long enough to forcefully enter the pocket on the striker or will he come out blitzing from the start and try to engage this monster from inside the pocket when he is fresh?

A flamboyant Capoeira striker with Muay Thai accents Elezeu displays speed, precision, and power with his stand up and it’s this matchup of striking specialties that has fight fans yearning to understand the result of this clash of warrior styles.

In my judgement this fight sets up to be favorable for Njokuani because Zaleski dos Santos must come forward in order to make this fight either striking or grappling.

However, should the Brazilian find inside access to his adversary early in this fight he’ll be in position to sap the slugger of his snap by forcing him to defend.

It’s at this juncture of the fight that we discover if Elezeu can maintain inside position and wage war or if Chidi is going to ‘bang’ ‘bang’ him from range.

Total in this fight is 1.5 Rds. Over -190

This is a fight card that I refer to as ‘due diligence’ cards in that there are many debut fighters as well, athletes with less than three UFC performances under their belts. We have one fight where a journeyman athlete is dropping two weight divisions to battle a debuting fighter!

Because of the obscurity of these athletes and my lack of data on them, I choose to use these fights to learn and often refrain from wagering upon them. This is that card!

Stephanie Luciano -230 vs. San Hughes +200 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Brazilian Luciano is tall, young, attractive and enters her sophomore fight in the UFC after defeating a woman that she fought to a draw on the Dana White Contender Series. She’s a striker.

Sam Hughes enters her ninth UFC fight 4-5. She comes to the cage with fierce determination, tremendous cardio, and a founded grappling/wrestling base.

Hughes opened +275 so others are seeing what I am reporting on. That Hughes is in a great position to compete Saturday.

Hughes +200 .5u

The ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com is where one finds my releases for each week’s UFC event.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

UFC FN London Edwards vs. Brady: Punch D’Leon

UFC LV104 Vettori vs. Dolidze: Bang Bang…out go the lights!

GambLou

It’s Business!