We win 1.11u yesterday to start our run…
9-19 -3.77u
UFC FN Kansas City Garry vs. Prates: Future Schlock?
After eleven straight fight slates the UFC took a break over the holiday weekend only to line another set of ten fight cards together for our future investment consideration.
This week it is Fight Night Kansas City, Garry vs. Prates, a card with fourteen scheduled bouts consisting of athletes ranging from flyweight women to light heavyweight men.
An international set of gladiators will compete in a large thirty foot octagon, and in front of a full house of midwestern fight fanatics. Only eleven of the combatants on this schedule are from the United States with athletes coming in from all corners of the globe. China Georgia, South Africa, Mexico, Jamaica, and Uganda are represented just to name a few.
One facet of this event most important to understand, is where the few local/regional fighters are situated on this card as they may have some effect on the crowd then of course potentially the judging.
UFC Kansas City prelims begin at 3pm PT with the main slate airing at 6pm PT.
Let’s fight!
Ian Garry -130 vs. Carlos Prates +110 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Thirteenth ranked Brazilian phenom Carlos Prates enters this fight with huge momentum and confidence brimming which is why he did not hesitate to take this substantial step up in competition after his original opponent Geoff Neal had to drop out of the fight.
Prates, a member of the gang of destruction that is Brazil’s ‘fighting nerds’ team is a world class Muay Thai striker who also holds a black belt in BJJ.
He is fearless, forward pressing, and ultra-aggressive. Prates has decimated all four of his UFC opponents faced, as well he has faced an improved, more refined adversary in each of those four bouts.
Prates attempts to walk down any opponent to plant feet and throw hammers. One thing he must improve, however, is his propensity to accept a strike as he accepts a slightly higher number of significant strikes per minute than he lands. Prates’ power is profuse, he has become reliant on tagging opponents and when he does, he shuts them down.
Irishman Garry who is now living in Brazil and training with the assassins at Chute Box is as close to a perfect opposite of Prates as we can find stylistically.
A black belt in Judo with improving grappling Garry is as highly athletic as he is brash and verbose. Garry’s strength in fights is to use his deft footwork, fluidity of movement and strike evasion to force opponents into lunging forward to engage, reaching and forcing engagement which has the result of leaving them wide open to Garry’s flash precision counter striking attack.
Garry’s been in with better competition, his experience coupled with his athleticism may simply be too refined and advanced for the forceful approach of this most dangerous pulverizer.
Prates carries momentum into the cage yet despite Garry taking this fight on short notice, I handicap his skills to be just a bit more refined, advanced, and developed for Prates especially understanding that this is a five-round battle.
Garry -125
Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -180
Over -180
Michel Perreira -145 vs. Abus Magomedov +120 Middleweight (185lbs.)
The middleweight division of the UFC is a deep and competitive group where some twenty of its athletes may be legitimately regarded as top fifteen combatants.
Fourteenth ranked and rising up the ranks in furious fashion in Brazilian Michel Pereira. Periera has blossomed as a fighter once he accepted the fact that he was compromising himself too much trying to compete in the lower welterweight division.
Handicapping Pereira, the middleweight mandates that one must wonder how the massive middleweight makes this 185lb division let alone how he ever made the 170-pound limit.
A black belt in BJJ as well as Karate, Pereira prefers to attack opponents immediately and unleash his power through a barrage of fists, elbows, knees, jumps kicks and tricks.
Flamboyant is an understatement for how Pereira fights, and in fact his Wildman approach can sometimes put him in compromising positions. A subtly refined and focused Pereira is expected for this battle as he arrives off a loss to Fluffy Hernandez, one in which he was exposed in his ability to effectively compete for a full five rounds.
Pereira is sure to be looking to rebound off that humiliating last loss.
In Abus Magomedov we have a Russian fighter who will be slightly older than Pereira but two inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. That height/reach advantage plays into his favor when this fight will be standing.
Magomedov’s striking to be honest is more workmanlike and less explosive in nature than is Pereira’s, but he delivers shots straight down the pipe and in classic boxing fashion as opposed to the wildly awkward angles that his maniacal adversary Pereira will hurl at him.
Once this fight enters the second round, we will witness one or both men begin to wane as neither is known for deep cardio ability so conditioning and pace stand to be an important aspect of this fight.
With a victory Pereira regains some momentum he lost to Hernandez in his last bout, but a Magomedov win catapults the Russian up into the middleweight rankings allowing him to threaten the top fifteen.
This is a very important fight in the division.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -165
Friday midday PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops just after weigh-ins are completed. Access it at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.
GambLou
It’s Business!
2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport
The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.
Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.
This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.
Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…
I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.
The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.
It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.
I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).
Oh Canada!
UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: lord ..have mercy
Miami, Fl is the host city for this week’s UFC 314 a PPV event.
This fight card from Miami is scheduled for 13 bouts of which three will be competed at 170 lbs. or above. The larger octagon is in use in Miami and the crowd will be festive, furious, and frenetic.
Early prelim action starts at 3pm PT with preliminary fights dropping at 5pm PT and the main card 7pm PT.
Last week I put up a stinker with both of my releases losing a total of 2.5u bringing this year’s digital results to 7-10 -3.45u
Time to dig in.
Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Diego Lopes +105 Featherweight Championship
Two years ago, Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC and took current featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s fourth ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice! Many including myself, feel that Lopes actually won that fight.
Since that decision loss, Lopes has scorched all five featherweight adversaries leading into this championship opportunity and in each case the level of competition he faced in those opponents increased.
That will be no different this week.
Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will be the younger man in this title fight by five plus years, he’s six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the former champion.
He employs an aggressive forward-pressing striking attack backed up with brilliant BJJ. Lopes is tough, durable yet and as importantly, he enters brimming with the confidence that comes from destroying his last five opponents. Now he competes for the belt he has always dreamed of capturing.
Alexander Volkanovski is the featherweight division’s most elite champion. However, at thirty-six years of age and coming off of two decisive knock-out losses, many believe that Volkanovski may be on the other side of his prime.
Those losses were to Ilya Topuria and Islam Makhachev, but those two assassins are the two top pound for pound athletes in the UFC currently.
I believe Volkanovski took the second Makhachev fight, the one in which he was finished in, too soon off the heels of the first Makhachev loss, the one in which he shined so brightly.
Then the warrior in him made the first mistake worse in rushing back to face Topuria, his second rush back to competition.
So now, Volkanovski enters this fight with over a year of rest which in this case seems a wise idea.
Once this fight begins, Volkanovski must be measured early when the young Lopes is his most fierce. Navigating the first ten minutes of this fight and forcing the younger less experienced Lopes to use mental and physical energy is foundational to Volkanovski success because in previous fights, Lopes has shown tired as fight extended.
Those that believe Volkanovski is able to execute the same plan against Lopes as he used against Max Holloway in three epic battles will have an easy time picturing how a Volkanovski win will appear, deft movement and combination striking/kicking.
Those that feel Volkanovski’s skills have waned from those past two losses will take the position that he will be unable to execute such a plan against Lopes at this age and after two substantial knockout setbacks.
The key to this confrontation comes down to Volkanovski’s ability to navigate this fight into the third round and perhaps beyond where Lopes has not yet been at this level of competition.
He’ll accomplish this by employing deft footwork with striking quickness/precision all while relying upon his deep championship pedigree.
Volkanovski’s depth of five round championship experience, his cardio, his complete fight arsenal and most especially his nimble footwork together with his depth of five round championship experience provide him advantage over anyone in the division but…he must have those legs.
Volkanovski opened -150 in this fight and is now -125. He was a buy at -150.
Volkanovski -125 or better
with advice to be patient and allow the flow on Lopes to continue, capture Volkanovski at his most advantageous price.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210
Jean Silva -325 vs. Bryce Mitchell +265 Featherweight (145lbs)
Thirteenth ranked Mitchell is a country boy from Arkansas who has a sturdy wrestling base and is as strong as a country mule. Mitchell is best in fights when he can control the pace by pressing opponents backward then entangling them with his takedown ability and wrestling acumen.
As capable a wrestler as Mitchell is, that’s how uncomfortable and awkward he is as a striker. Though improving on the feet, Mitchell’s striking and strike evasion skills are the reason he sells out to wrestle. Look no further than his loss to Josh Emmett two fight back to realize that on the feet Mitchell is susceptible against any formidable striker.
Jean Silva is not only a capable striker, he may be the scariest fighter in the division currently. He is short, compact, lightning fast and packs obtuse power in his frenetic striking style.
Silva’s not lost since 2018, and he’s finished all four of his UFC opponents. That mentioned, this fight with Mitchell does represent a step up in class of opponent for Silva as well Silva’s not competed against a wrestler of this ability prior, so there is a path of destruction for Silva. That path would be to allow this fight to transition to the canvas.
Silva’s momentum, his youth and his shorter compact physique, which he can emply to keep the taller Mitchell from taking him down, coupled with the threat of his one strike finishing ability force me to regard him as extremely dangerous in this fight.
One last note, for many reasons, the UFC may not be Bryce Mitchell’s biggest fan. They sometimes have a way of cleaning house in their own manner. Mitchell getting this absolute killer, at this time, off that devastating loss to Emmett two fights back seems to be a perfect example of what the organization can do to someone who is ‘on the fringe’ of their graces.
Silva via demolition
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -175
Virna Jandiroba -145 vs. Yan Xiaonan +125 Women’s Strawweight (115lbs)
In this battle Jandiroba, the division’s third ranked fighter who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai striking steps up into the elite of the division.
Jandiroba’s won her last four fights against ‘top’ competition in the division but that competition has not been ‘elite.’ In this fight, she enters into the realm of elite competition against China’s Xiaonan who has recently competed for the title.
Yan was a fighter long, thin, and almost frail when she entered the UFC. However, the UFC Institute in China, Chinese strawweight champion Weili Zhang and Xiaonan’s desire to become a proud Chinese champion together provided the impetus for Xiaonan’s steady transformation, growth and improvement in mixed martial arts.
Xiaonan will have a certain striking advantage when these two are on their feet. She is younger, taller and the more seasoned fighter as well she is the much stronger lady. Xiaonan understands that to earn victory, she’ll need to keep this fight standing.
Her size/strength will be great assets to her as well her past with champion Zhang for while Jandiroba is a cobra when she gets opponents to the mat, her challenge is that her wrestling is not complete enough to be able to take down such a large, structured woman like Xiaonan.
Xiaonan’s power striking, championship experience and take down defense are all advantages in this fight against the Brazilian Jandiroba who is less experienced at this level of the division and is more singular in fighting dimension/expertise.
Jandiroba opened -140 in this fight.
Xiaonan +125
Total for this fight: 2.5Rds Over -180
Weigh ins from Miami are 6am PT so the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop mid-morning PT this Friday at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.
GambLou
It’s Business!
UFC LV105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Murphy’s Jaw
The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.
The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.
Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.
Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.
Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event
Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.
The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.
Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.
Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.
In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?
This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.
Emmett +280 .5u
Patience as this number keeps rising
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190
Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event
Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.
Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.
Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.
Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.
The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.
Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.
Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.
Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.
The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.
Brito -210
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195
Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)
This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!
In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.
In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.
The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.
Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.
His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.
Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.
Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?
Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195
Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights