This week the UFC competes in Denver, Colorado where a summer crowd, a larger 30’ cage and fight influencing altitude may all come into play.
Again, this week, the UFC was given little notice of a main event cancellation. They reacted by shuffling athletes to provide a worthy main event for Denver after doing an amazing job inserting relevant combatants with both co-main and main events of UFC 303 two weeks ago.
My respects go out to the UFC matchmakers.
At the halfway point of 2024, UFC favorites are at a multi-year high of 182-82-4 or 67.9% which is usual as favorite percentages usually run in the 62/63% range.
Digital results entering July stand: 16-13; +6.03u; +119 Ave.
The prelims for this week’s fight card are 4pm PT while the main fight card begins at 7pm PT.
This Denver fight card features eleven bouts, four of the fights being held in weight divisions of 170lbs and greater which translates to approximately 10% higher percentage of finishes.
Rose Namajunas -225 vs. Tracy Cortez +185 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event
Cortez steps into this bout on short notice for she was preparing for a short, aggressive wrestling-based athlete next week as opposed to the angular, former title holder and world class athlete in Namajunas.
Cortez, a wrestling-based fighter from Phoenix, AZ jumped at the chance to step up in class to compete against an elite like Namajunas, a fighter that could potentially dominate Cortez with her refined weaponry and experience.
Yet, it’s not out of the question that Cortez is able to ‘wrestle Rose up’ and boomerang a ground control victory into instant notoriety. Surely wrestling will be her approach.
Let’s remember that Cortez has competed at bantamweight and dropped into 125 while Rose did her best work at 115lbs. and is moving up in weight.
This bout being at flyweight may mark ‘two ships passing in the night’ as far as career trajectory is concerned or it could be an announcement by Namajunas that she’s here for this division.
Rose has several factors going for her.
She is an acknowledged world-class talent who has experienced opponent changes not to mention having already competed in five round main event performances numerous times.
Her fighting intelligence is a weapon, and she has fared well since moving to flyweight. Though she does not appear to move as she did when she was a strawweight, Rose competes at home and has no adjustment to make for the drastic elevation change as cardio has never been a question with Namajunas.
Cortez must have an aggressive approach and an unwillingness to compete at distance. She is going to have to overcome much in order to earn success in this fight besides and that’s before dealing with elevation.
The short notice for a main event situation, compounded by the Denver altitude then finally, Namajunas as adversary together spell a challenge for Cortez who may not be quite ready to overcome it all.
Namajunas and Cortez opened as a -110 pick and now Namajunas is -225!
That seems a mis-priced opening number.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -280
Jean Silva -115 vs. Drew Dober -105 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Brazilian Silva is a cold unadulterated finisher of fights.
Since 2021 he has finished each of the ten foe’s he has faced in the first round save for his last bout two weeks ago when he took Charles Jourdain an accomplished UFC featherweight out in the second round.
Prior to that bout Silva missed weight by some two plus pounds and now is assigned to turn around in just a couple of weeks. He now must compete up in weight (probably where Silva belongs anyway) at 155lbs. and against a formidable and well-established fighter in Dober who is also a natural born banger.
Silva steps well up in class of opponent for this tilt and when I consider who Dober has been in with, what he’s faced and the forms of threats he has seen then it becomes only Silva’s early finishing power that I fear with this investment.
Should this fight get into the second round then it could be target practice for Mr. Dober on a gassed and perhaps over matched Jean Silva.
Dober -105
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds over -125
The ‘Bout Business Podcast are my final releases for this week. It’s available Friday Noon PST. Access it only at GambLou.com