We forge into the second half of the UFC calendar year with UFC LV94 this week.
Last week favorites went 6-3-3 last week pushing the winning percentage this year for chalk to 67.1%.
When will underdog correction present itself…will an underdog correction arise?
I trust that a corrections will transpire before the end of the year.
When? That’s a question I can’t answer as we have six months.
Digital results stand 16-13 +6.03u after last week’s release of Drew Dober failed against a young, faster more fluent fighter in Jean Silva.
Turning to LV 94, Saturday’s fights begin at 2pm PT with preliminary action and 5 pm PT for the main card. The card features twelve scheduled bouts but only two fights pit athletes weighing 170lbs. and above into the reduced confines of the 25’ APEX octagon.
One final note about late July/August in the UFC. This time of year can be stressful for veteran UFC athletes as they have tremendous pressure on them to perform and win.
These middle tier (talent and paygrade) UFC combatants must win to maintain/enhance their standing in the organization against fellow UFC athletes trying to do the same.
These vets must differentiate themselves from the wave of young, inexpensive, and inexperienced labor flowing into the organization from Dana White’s Contender series.
This presents tremendous pressure, but these fighters know that if they ‘put on a show’ they’ll get paid and recognized.
The focus, desperation, and determination this time of year often makes for reckless forward pressing aggression in bouts which is exactly the business the UFC is in.
I believe we’ll see this week as we saw glimpses of last week, violent displays from athletes who are dealing with this exact pressure to remain relevant and who are fighting literally for their careers.
These fighters’ names are less recognizable to mainstream fight fans exemplified by the fact that this card is populated with six athletes’ arriving from Brazil while another four ship in from South Korea.
Just like last week, the names may be obscure, but the fighting will be fierce.
Virna Jandiroba -140 vs. Amanda Lemos +120 women’s strawweight (115lbs.) main event
Fifth ranked Jandiroba faces third ranked Lemos for an extremely compelling fight in the strawweight division between Brazilian contenders.
Lemos, 3-1 in her last four UFC events, is the slightly longer, taller athlete in the cage. She’s a ferocious striker who puts massive pronunciation behind any of her strikes or spinning techniques. She’s extremely aggressive, fast, and mean as a junk yard dog.
Lemos can finish a fight from any position in the cage and is just as capable of drawing taps from opponents as she is knocking them out of their consciousness. What Lemos sometimes fails to administer to however is her pace and on occasion she can find herself struggling late in bouts.
In Jandiroba we have a more strategic grappler as I handicap her. She’s nowhere near as devastating with her striking arsenal and in fact she’ll only try to stand with Lemos long enough to embrace and cling to her for that’s her initial step to success.
Jandiroba must discover a way to envelop Lemos, leverage her against the fence then maul Lemos to transition this fight to the floor. If she can execute that plan, she is likely to earn victory here because her type of steady, matriculated output allows her to compete for thirty minutes let alone fifteen.
What separates these two for me is who each has been in the octagon with and based on the more stringent competition, I must regard Lemos as the athlete I believe earns victory in the APEX Saturday.
Lemos +120
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -215
Lean over.
Steve Garcia -135 vs. Seung woo Choi + 110 Featherweight (145lbs)
These two fighters are in this position to stir frenzy as each are savage strikers.
Garcia, a southpaw will hold slight height and reach edges while Choi arrives the younger fighter.
Garcia who fights out of Jackson-Wink in Albuquerque is a forward pressing boxer, Muay Thai striker who aggressively seeks engagement at every forward step. His single point of focus is to place himself in front of the opponent in order to stand firm then heavy haymakers. In Garcia’s case, his power shots can be straight piercing jabs, solid hooks and crosses and bludgeoning leg kicks.
His counterpart Choi is also a deft kickboxer/Mauy Thai striker, so his forward pressing attack revolves around his ability to work his way inside via the teep-kick and calf attack then complete his entry with hand striking and elbows.
Choi, 1-3 in his last four enters off of an impressive win despite the fact that he has been susceptible to power punchers prior.
Once the bell for this fight chimes, I see two determined long lethal striking talents meeting in the center of the octagon to careen kicks and elbows off one another’s domes.
Choi’s been in with the more formidable opponent but has not fared well against them nor has he remained highly active recently as this is his first bout in almost a year.
Garcia is an angry, aggressive instigator and though this may represent a slight step up in class of opponent for him, it’s my take that his aggressive nature and certain power advantage will be enough for him to get his hand raised in what I handicap to be an all-out stand-up war.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -195
Miranda Maverick -205 vs. Dione Barbosa +180 women’s flyweight (125lbs)
Maverick is a wrestling-based dynamo who is a forward pressing problem. Fighting out of team Elevation in Colorado the tiny tornado has been training through a full camp for a fight on this date until that fight was altered and the organization found a replacement so Maverick could keep her fight.
From Brazil Barbosa travels to the US for her sophomore UFC battle after winning her debut at UFC 301 in May.
She’s thirty-two and will be the taller fighter in the cage as well, she’ll be the least experienced athlete which compounds the complexity of this matchup for her.
Barbosa travels across the globe on short notice with the challenge of taking on a relentless wresting wiz who has had a full camp to prepare for a fight on this date.
Barbosa’s striking is still relatively pedestrian, and she’ll surely attempt to use Maverick’s aggression against her in order to work her way into some form of clasp then attempt to transition into a submission attempt.
The issue with that Barbosa plan is that Maverick at twenty-seven years of age has a depth of UFC experience against the elite of the division as well she’s faced fighters with a diversity of skill sets.
To say this is a tough ask for Ms. Barbosa is an understatement.
Maverick’s depth of experience, her tenacity and most especially her wrestling chops work together in this fight to earn her a one-sided victory which based on the total in this fight appears to be a decision.
Maverick is a prime parlay piece or a straight up opportunity.
Maverick -205/Garcia -135 Parlay
1 unit invested returns a potential 1.59u
Total in this Maverick fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -345
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops this Friday around noon hour PT. Access it for all of my final UFC LV94 releases at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the animosities.