Manchester, England is the location for this week’s UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad PPV event.
The fourteen-fight production begins with early prelims Saturday at 3:15pm PT, prelims start at 5pm PT then the main card drops at 7pm PT.
These fights transpire in the wee hours Sunday AM in Jolly Ol’ England so the crowd should be in ‘rare’ form for these bouts, ten of which feature English combatants.
Last week two releases split however, the parlay paid +151 so digital results stand 17-15 +5.58u to date.
Champion Leon Edwards -250 vs. Belal Muhammad +210 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title
Since these two fought to a no contest in March of 2021 each has performed brilliantly defeating every challenger faced.
For Muhammad, unrelenting, forward pressure wrestling is his fight foundation, and he compliments that with extreme mental toughness, sheer determination an improved striking/licking offense and simple belief.
Since these two first tussled, Muhammad has improved his striking but as opposed to piecing opponents up, he’s looking to strike only long enough to steal the opponent’s soul by forcing them to battle tooth and nail, second by second and inch my inch for a full twenty-five.
What Muhammad believes is that eventually his calculated aggressiveness early in the fight will allow him to eventually clasp a hold of them and choke them out with a submission late in the fight.
Champion Edwards will be defending his belt at home. The southpaw is the younger man, the taller man and he’ll also hold reach advantages over Muhammad.
Edwards has the ability to thrive anywhere a fight evolves be it wrestling, grappling, striking, or kicking. The dexterity of Edwards, his physical advantages and taking into consideration who he has competed against all force me to regard Edwards as the legitimate favorite in this fight.
On the Muhammad side, it’s his focus, his unrelenting nature, and the fact he has been in the cage against Leon already. Muhammad understands exactly what he must do to accomplish this upset and it begins and ends with sucking the cardio out of the champion and usurping his confidence.
What is intriguing is that almost every other English fighter on this slate is being bet aggressively by the betting public however in this main event Edwards price has only moved slightly.
Current lines show respect for Muhammad yet when I handicap the fight it all comes down to whether Muhammad force Edwards into succumbing.
That’s his path to the championship.
At current pricing, I’ll take Muhammad +210 or better*.
*It won’t hurt to be patient and watch this line because a better price may arise.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -215
Champion Tom Aspinall -355 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290 heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Interim
This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight. In it Aspinall closed at a price of -140 over Blaydes after opening as a dead pick-em.
Aspinall was injured early in the fight which began the process of each man earning their way right back to a title shot. It just so happens that the location is Manchester and on Saturday these two settle who will be the next heavyweight champion after Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic then rides off into the sunset.
Blaydes resume is solid, he’s a world class wrestling talent who has developed a better than average power-based strike arsenal into his offense and that striking comes complete with kicks.
Blaydes cardio is a strength, he is unbelievably strong, determined, and confident yet not overly agile or nimble.
Blaydes has competed against heavyweight elite over several years and surely sees this as his best opportunity to be crowned but does that mean he’ll win the fight?
Curtis Blaydes has a single shortcoming, it’s a glaring one as unfortunately, Blaydes has the proverbial glass jaw.
This is not to say he can’t take a punch or battle toe-to-toe but since 2018 his three losses were all to worthy, power based legitimate heavyweight talents who in exchanges were able to blast Blaydes and drop him cheek first onto the floor.
This is the heavyweight division of the UFC and having to try to hide the inability to take one flush on the face is no secret, especially when the athlete is young, driven, confident and does not believe he can be stopped despite past results.
It’s my belief that Blaydes is playing an extremely dangerous game against this Aspinall kid. I’ll also mention that it was Blaydes that called this fight out.
For Aspinall, it’s simple.
He’s smashed each opponent put in front of him since these two first fought. Now he gets the opportunity to correct the blemish on his record that was put there after an injury in a fight that lasted 15 seconds.
Aspinall’s slightly younger than Blaydes, he’ll be taller, more athletic and the faster man in the cage.
Both of these men fight with a full arsenal of skill so it will be interesting to determine where this fight goes and who takes it there.
What Blaydes must execute is enough forward pressure to put Aspinall on the defensive and take this fight right to him. This strategy allows him his best chance to win.
It’s likely that Aspinall’s agility, speed and precision striking will sooner than later force the more methodical Blaydes into attempting to wrestle.
When that transition happens and I believe it will, this fight like an aged Cabernet will begin to open up.
Because if Blaydes is forced to apply wrestling he then leaves himself exposed to Aspinall’s forte’s which is straight knees, power uppercuts and leveraged crosses as he rushes inside to engage.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -166
Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135 Light Heavyweight (205lbs)
These two fighters will each step into the cage on Saturday in must win situations.
Bukauskas won his first two UFC fights before Vitor Petrino finished him in the second round last November.
Bukauskas is a durable, willing striking based fighter with decent wrestling, but his strike defense needs improvement.
Prachnio is the older fighter at thirty-six, but he’s just as desperate for a win as is Bukauskas which enhances the volatility of this fight.
Prachnio is 2-2 in the UFC since 2022, he has competed against worthy competition, and he enters this one off a win.
In my judgement, Prachnio is the more complete striker, he has more innate power than does Bukauskas and he’s been in against a higher degree of pedigreed opponents. For that reason, I ‘ll declare him as a live underdog in a fight that is critical to each man.
Prachnio +135
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week as the fights are in England. Access it at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities.