The UFC is back in its APEX center this week for UFC LV95, an eleven-fight card populated with an international array of lesser-known UFC combatants.
Three of the bouts feature 170lbs. (or larger) men fighting in the smaller 25’ diameter APEX octagon while the remaining bouts are competitively matched smaller athletes where there could be a slight advantage to the wrestling/grappling combatant.
Favorites marched to a 12-1 result last week and stand 212-95-8 in 2024 which renders investing in underdogs a risky proposition.
Digital results in 2024 stand 19-16 +7.73u, I am navigating my way through the heavy first half year chalk parade profitably.
Sergei Spivak -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Main Event
This is a rematch of a 202 fight where Polish veteran Tybura, then an experienced 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced a twenty-five-year-old Moldovan neophyte Spivak to the heavyweight division by winning a close decision over the ‘Polar Bear’ who was competing in his third UFC fight.
In that first fight, the betting line on Tybura closed -125. It took Tybura all of his cardio, guile, and experience to win that fight over the younger, more energetic but less experienced Spivak.
Since then, each has won the fights they should have while dropping marquee opportunities to athletes well more gifted than they when it comes to heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.
Flash forward four years and Tybura, who is now even more experienced at thirty-seven stands ready to defend his eighth rank in the division against old foe Spivak who happens to be ranked 9th.
In a small cage, large lumbering men with ill intent will offer excitement in the initial stages of this fight but after six minutes or so this one could turn into a ‘slow dance at the high school prom’.
These two mammoth heavyweights are neither dynamic physically or to be honest athletically. What we’ll witness after the first six to seven minutes will be groping, mauling, and maneuvering within the small cage once the crispness of each fighter’s strikes has dulled.
When this fight is completed, it’s my position that Sergei Spivak will earn a decision victory in a battle that will mean much to both the victor and the defeated but little else to anyone but we investors.
I sense revenge.
Spivak -145
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130
Lean over.
Jose Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180 Featherweight (145lbs.)
This new co main event will be a tremendous clash of styles as a short sawed-off Mariscal looks to incapacitate the crafty, beguiling submission artist Jackson.
Jackson is the grizzled veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal, he’ll hold a two-inch arm reach advantage to go with his four-inch leg reach edge which in past fights has allowed him to use those thin appendages to clasp onto necks, head, arms, and legs.
Jackson earned victory in his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed vastly improved striking but dropped his two previous bouts to Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo, respectively. He works behind a decent jab, gut wrenching teep kicks and forward pressure when the war goes his way.
In Chepe Mariscal we have a human chain saw.
Chepe is short, squat, forward pressing and as tempered as an anvil. He forges forward with one intent, to attack the opponent with power strikes/kicks that deliver numbing results.
Chepe ‘makes’ fights but in this battle, I believe we’ll see him approach Jackson with initial caution as he must not force his way into a lack of submission awareness while working to engage.
Jackson’s going to have to employ a stiff jab to both neutralize Chape’s inward press as well maintain distance for his elbows and knees to catch the maniacal Mariscal on entry.
Entry is the key to this fight for ultimately ‘Chepe’ wants to be inside lobbing power bombs at Jackson and Jackson may well want Chepe working into him for the submission come far easier with a forceful foe.
Jackson’s length, experience and level of competition faced provide him a great opportunity to turn back Mariscal in this fight but he’ll need to overcome a couple rounds of pure ferocity if he is to do it unless he can find the aggressive strikers neck while the fight is early and the skin dry.
Mariscal’s momentum from three straight wins over bona fide UFC competition combined with his compact frame, extreme aggression, forward pressure, granite chin and profuse power force me to believe that a Chepe, a man that has never been submitted could make this four in a row in the UFC.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125
Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nicolay Verretennikov +285 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Barlow is young, fast, powerful and on the ascent despite the fact that he’s yet to be really tested in the UFC.
Short notice replacement fighter Verretennikov arrives with few credentials except for the fact that he’s won a couple of fights and was available to replace Uros Medic on very short notice.
Verretennikov is a durable, tough methodical finisher who will look to make a name for himself at this late stage of a fighting career.
In this fight we have the big name that needs to look dominant, but will the short notice replacement be game for the upset, a solid showing, or a beating?
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -210.
This total is based on what Barlow is expected to do. It’s my take that Verretennikov is much more durable than one and a half rounds.
My final releases for this week’s UFC LV95 will be available Friday mid-day PT at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights this week.
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