The APEX in Las Vegas with its smaller octagon hosts this week’s UFC LV96. On this week’s card are two TUF final bouts which bring the total fights on the card to eleven.
Last week underdogs finally raised their heads and realized a 5-6-1 result which knocks favorites winning percentage this year to 66.7% which is still extremely high.
Let’s hope what we saw last week will not be such a rarity as we move into the last half of the 2024 UFC fighting calendar.
Digital results stand 21-16 +10.28u on the heels of King O’Neill’s (+145) victory.
Ciao Borralho -205 vs. Jared Cannonier +175 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
In fifth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete focused on a run at a title. Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age and though he usually competes like a man many years younger, in his last effort in June he did not.
Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya and his last outing, the aforementioned clunker against France’s Nassourdine Imavov.
At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested.
What I concern myself with is his IMMEDIATE desire to earn another title opportunity as opposed to waiting a few months to recharge. He may feel like his last fight was out of the ordinary or he could be rushing back in a touch of haste because he understands the odds of forty-year-old men competing in this game against skilled men close to a decade younger.
Cannonier coming off a TKO against Imavov just seven weeks ago compounds my skepticism.
This is a foundational fight for Cannonier and his future in the top five of this most competitive division.
In twelfth ranked Brazilian Borralho, we have the poster boy for his team which called the ‘fighting nerds.’
Borralho wears glasses and looks to be more valedictorian than middleweight challenger until he steps into an octagon.
He and team wear crooked glasses that tote white tape on the hinge to help them ‘look the part’ but sgangly, it to say that though these young athletes may look goofy, awkward, gangly and odd, please understand that each one is technically versed in their own world class dialect of BJJ and the martial arts.
In the cage Borralho is an elite talent. He is lightning fast; he has solid wrestling/grappling acumen to compliment his highly intricate athleticism and BJJ aptitude.
Cannonier is the man in this fight with the advantage in size (unusual) and experience. He’s been in against killers from three different UFC divisions. Primarily a boxing/kickboxing threat, Cannonier has also developed a grappling game though we’ve seen little of it in his past fights.
That may well change Saturday for it’s my belief that Borralho will force Cannonier into engagements that will test Cannonier’s grappling, take down defense and submission guard.
Key factors for me in this fight are Cannonier’s age, the attrition his body has taken from an extensive career in martial arts spanning three different weight classes and his desperation to get one more shot at the middleweight title.
Now coming into such a critical fight off of a near knock-out loss just two months ago has me wondering what the rush was for Cannonier to get back into the cage so fast and against this type of elite opponent.
We understand that fighters at least 9 years younger than their opponents have a near 70% rate of winning in the UFC. That coupled with the mixed martial arts weaponry of Ciao may make it a long night for Cannonier in the APEX Saturday if Cannonier is unable to back Borralho up and keep this fight upright.
In Saturday’s main event we’ll witness two world class 185-pound athletes contend for Cannoniers fifth ranked position in the division.
Total in this fight: 3.5 rds. Over -175
Michael Morales -600 vs. Neil Magny +470 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Last week I broke down a fight where novice Brazilian razor blade Carlos Prates fought wily veteran Li Jingliang of China. The gist of the write-up was centered around the dynamic speed, ferocity, precision striking/kicking and evasive defensive abilities of the YOUNGER Prates and how those abilities matched up against a methodical, grizzled, wily, durable, tough but aged veteran of the sport of MMA who had never been stopped prior.
Prates annihilated Jingliang. He was the first one to finish the proud Chinese warrior in the late second round of their fight.
It is unfortunate that thirty-seven-year-old Neil Magny, a long, tall, grizzled veteran of more than thirty UFC competitions would draw a more favorable matchup than having to face one of the most violent mixed martial artists in the organization in twenty-five-year-old Morales.
Magny arrives to this tussle off a nice upset win over Canada’s MIke Mallot this past January in a fight he was also totally disrespected in as he closed close to a +300 underdog so at least Magny is used to the treatment.
Magny’s a superior grappler whose long, tall frame sets him up with excellent submission abilities as well that height/reach advantage and his fluidity of movement on the feet is helpful when fights remain standing.
The issue, however, is that Magny is not fast or overly durable and while he is crafty, beguiling and has an exceedingly high IQ in the octagon he is also in the twilight of a lengthy career.
The incoming breed of young hungry and well balanced mixed martial artists are salivating to be matched up with these wise but aged UFC ambassadors in order to club them into unconsciousness then walk away with their position within the division.
I’ve said before, the fight game is one tough pursuit.
Morales, now twenty-five, is young, fast, powerful, explosive and a threat to finish any fight wherever said fight may go. His level of competition faced, and lack of experience needs cultivation and this fight with Magny is his first true test.
Magny will have to discover a way to use his experience and fighting acumen to perplex Morales, confound him with evasive movement/angles and keep him at the end of his strikes and kicks.
Magny cannot allow himself to be caught competing in any flat-footed striking encounters. He can’t allow Morales any ‘in pocket’ opportunities for a wide stanched power shot heaving because Morales is a fighter that can end any athlete’s night with one power blast.
In my estimation, what the UFC is doing to this fight ambassador is similar to what they did to Li Jingliang last week in putting him in with a foe he is unlikely to be able to compete effectively against.
UFC fans understand that in this realm of mixed martial arts, the fittest survive and there is little way to sidestep tomorrow’s future stars like this gifted newcomer Morales.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -175
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -185 vs. Josiane Nunes +160 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs)
Portugal’s Cavalcanti arrives in Perth ready for her sophomore UFC fight but in this matchup her foe is considerably more talented than the fighter she faced in her debut.
Cavalcanti, primarily a striker looks the part for sure, she’s 5’8” which will provide her a six-inch height advantage in this bout. She also holds a four-year youth advantage to go with her four-inch reach advantage.
Cavalcanti will want to keep this fight at distance and standing for her most advantageous outcome.
In Nunes we have a short 5’2” hand grenade. The Brazilian is also a power striker with an emphasis on power.
Despite the fact that she is tremendously undersized physically, opponents find out immediately that when fighting Nunes, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
In this fight Nunes has an edge in fight experience and has been in with the more able set of opponents as well she beat the only UFC level fighter that Cavalcanti beat previously Zarah Fairn.
The betting market has taken Cavalcanti from -110 at open to the current -185 and that must be based on her size and some ‘Nunes fade’ as there is nothing other than those aspects to this fight that make me feel Cavalcanti has the advantage in this fight.
Nunes +160
Nunes decision should also come at a large plus price once released.
Don’t be afraid to add a touch of investment there especially with the total 2.5Rds. Over -260!
Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast is available at GambLou.com. Catch all of my official releases there.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.