This week the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with it’s Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.
It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70’s during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches almost all of which I attended.
Attending those fights, I observed AND absorbed of the passion of the Mexican fight fans as well the valor, guts, toughness and never quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.
This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155lbs. and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30’ Octagon.
Last week we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability which stands 22-17 +10.35u.
Let’s find another winning position in this Noche event!
Champion Sean O’Malley -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title
Champion O’Malley has gone from a young skinny precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well versed, and complete mixed martial artist.
O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically and within the realm of MMA.
He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his own momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.
Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct.
However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last seven years or so competing against with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have put him in position to both be confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types but more importantly to do so with the confidence that the opppo0onent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability.
O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.
Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup he is giving away massive advantages in age, height and limb reach to the champion.
Dvalishvili’s best weaponry is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think or act for they are constantly moving forward to press, smother and engage.
O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.
Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only and by that I mean that he has one single point of focus in fights and that is to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat then from top control open up the faucet and reign never ending ground and pound.
O’Malley requires space in order to flow while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a strait jacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.
Both of these athletes have vied against the elite of the division, and both belong in this fight, however only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Over -154*
Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him from his strength while the O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in position catch Merab with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.
It’s my judgement that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation and at this point those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now as his price is only going to go up while Merab maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price they can on the Tasmanian Devil.
Champion Alexa Grasso -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110 Women’s Flyweight title
This is the trilogy fight for these ladies.
Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound for pound women’s MMA GOAT.
Yes, even over Amanda Nunes however, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s thirty-six and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.
It’s my judgement that Shevchenko’s shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.
While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant Angelo Dundee taught me years ago.
Dundee would warn that; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills.
Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.
Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to will it. However, she’s now thirty-six and coming off two tough five round battles against Grasso, the current champion.
Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.
For Grasso, she’s had months to reprepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.
In both previous fights Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success and in each case those skills were enough to earn her the title.
Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this fight both camps understand that little separates these two world class fighters.
Different in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts and each one will be yearning to see the Mexican dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.
Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.
Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!
In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in history of the flyweight division let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout the course of history.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -200
I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.
Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Fight of the night!
Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6’3” and he sports a 75” reach allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.
He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries as he lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse one punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.
Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes that have the ability to forge forward, cut the cage and corner Bahamondes, thus taking his greatest asset away from him, his distance.
From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights the long, tall drink of water that is Bahamondes can begin to slow and it’s here where he is vunerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? That answer for me is an unequivocal yes.
Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is in the aggressiveness of Torres, his pressure, power strikes/kicks and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.
Torres striking is high output as he lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes is the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell for it is in Torres ability to mix up his attack that make him the more well dangerous fighter in this matchup.
Torres -120
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Pick-em
Heavy lean to over
Friday mid-day PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com
Enjoy the Tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!