This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.
The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.
Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.
Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.
Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event
Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.
Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.
Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.
In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.
Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?
The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.
While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125
Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event
These two were scheduled to fight July 20th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.
Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.
Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.
Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.
In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.
Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.
Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265
Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)
The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!
Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.
After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.
In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.
Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.
Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.
Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155
Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.
Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.
While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.
Carpenter -190*
Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135