The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC LV99 event whose fight card is populated with eleven bouts but only a few feature world class fighting talent.
Other bouts offer journeyman fighters yearning to graduate from the depths of their perspective weight classes a chance to earn an impressive win and solidify themselves within the organization.
To say that most of the fighters competing on this card Saturday are fighting for their UFC future is reality in my judgement. So now, besides intensity add a sprinkle of pressure onto these athletes.
Last week we rolled to victory with young Clayton Carpenter who earned a submission win, then we watched Brad Tavares as a +170 underdog be awarded a decision loss in his fight against the Iron Turtle.
To date digital profitability stands 23-21 +7.65u
Michel Pereira +110 vs. Anthony Hernandez -130 Middleweight (185lbs) main event
To provide readers with perspective on the dynamically equipped, versatile mixed martial artists that populate the middleweight division of the UFC let me state that these two killers Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked twelve and thirteen respectively!
Pereira, a flamboyant striker mixes his black belts in BJJ and Karate to detrimental results for opponents. He’s huge for the weight class (which always mandates keeping a close eye on his weigh ins) he’s explosive, athletic and sprinkles the unorthodoxy of Capoeira striking into his attacks.
Since an unusually odd loss to Diego Sanchez in 2020 Pereira has won his last eight fights in impressive form albeit against moderately talented UFC competition save for a victory over fellow Brazilian Santiago Ponzinibbio at welterweight a few years back.
In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Rodriguez we get an opponent for Pereira who is anything but what his nickname indicates.
Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ with a solid wrestling base arrives with the momentum of having won his last five fights. The last three combatants he faced presented a diversity of attack besides representing a step up in level of competition for Hernandez and he reacted by finishing all three men.
Hernandez is a bit more calculated, matriculated, and premeditated in his approach to opponents than Pereira. His athleticism, legwork and wrestling base allow him to quickly transition into dominant positions as soon as any opponent makes the slightest error.
Once the bell for this fight chimes, it will be Pereira taking his pressure striking right to Hernandez and Hernandez will be forced to deal immediately with that forcefulness.
Hernandez must manage this fight into the second round and beyond and provided he is able to withstand early hurricane force from Pereira, he stands a great chance of overcoming Pereira later in this fight by using intelligence, patience, and skill.
Conditioning and fight IQ are the foundational aspects for anyone competing against Pereira and in Fluffy the Brazilian destroyer has drawn as intelligent a fighter as competes in the division as well the whole of the UFC.
Hernandez will need to draw Pereira into his wrestling, mauling range then engulf the brazen Brazilian with his smothering grappling in order to both force the power striker into defending himself as well suck some of the explosivity from the monster by making him grind to get away from the clasp.
I regard Pereira as a front running Hare, he’s more explosive, he’s more powerful but he also expends great deals of energy on his attacks. Foes that can navigate fights into the later stages of three rounds, and this is a five-round fight, can earn success against Pereira as a determined foe and the onset of fatigue usurps the will from the buzzsaw.
Hernandez, the ‘tortoise’ has all the natural ability as well he possesses the fight acumen to navigate this battle into the late second round and beyond. I see maneuvering this fight into the later rounds as mandatory for Fluffy’s chances of winning and I believe he’ll be able to use his mind to conquer Pereira’s matter in this matchup.
Hernandez opened -200 for this fight, he now stands -130 however I regard the opening line as a more accurate depiction of these two men’s skills. I’ll invest in Hernandez -130 with advice to get him now as this price is too low in my judgement and is bound to creep back up.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155 (BOL)
Kyler Phillips -470 vs. Rob Font +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event
This fight is such a fitting example of what ‘value’ really means in gambling.
Phillips, a brown belt in BJJ, and a Nikidokai black/red belt is called Matrix because that’s exactly how he moves. He trains with another six or eight world class bantamweight mixed martial artists at the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ where the competition is high and the respect even higher.
Suga Sean O’Malley, Mario Bautista, Marcus McGhee, and Clayton Carpenter are just a few of the world class fighters sharing rounds at the Lab with each other. There, steel is sharpening steel when it comes to these men’s abilities.
Phillips is extremely athletic, he’s quick as a cat and in mixed martial arts weaponry he is as equipped as Mother Russia for he can strike, wrestle, grapple, and gruel all night long.
He’s finally earned his top fifteen stature and with this fight against Font he hopes to solidify his ascent within the bantamweight division, one that’s chock full of killers.
Rob Font is a determined, experienced striker from Massachusetts. He is an exceptional boxer and is complimented by a brown belt in BJJ. Font’s competed at lightweight, featherweight and now bantamweight which at thirty-seven is of note, for those weight cuts to 135lbs can’t be easy for any young fighter let alone a lower weight athlete now pushing forty.
While these men are similar in height and reach it’s the age, the quickness and agility that separate these two in my handicap.
Once this fight begins, Phillip’s movement, athleticism and overall mixed martial arts weaponry will be on display and while he may not be able to finish the proud warrior it’s my take that he wins a one-sided fight if there is no finish.
Now getting to the value in gambling part….
Phillips opened -225 for this fight. I released him last week at that price. Today he is -400/-450 and while this opponent is an advantageous one for him to compete against, the fact remains that this is a fight, anything can happen and Font’s no walk in the park.
I handicap Phillips to be a steal at -225 and a buy all the way to -290 regarding straight bets. I would use him in parlay pieces up to -325 but after that the risk is too high for the competitiveness of this bout.
Last week that the 23-year-old Tatsuro Taira opened -195 and closed -340 or so against number one contender and veteran flyweight Brandon Royval. Royval won the split decision as +250 dog!
In summary, those that obtained Phillips early in this betting cycle hold ‘value’ into this fight based on current pricing. The fact that Phillips is a fine buy at -225 does not in any way, shape, or form make him a worthy consideration at -400 or higher.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -225
Lean over.
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day at GambLou.com. Get my final releases there.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.