Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.
The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.
UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.
Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.
Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.
Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.
Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title
Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.
Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.
Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.
In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.
Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.
He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’
Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.
Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.
We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.
Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.
Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.
It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.
At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.
I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.
Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event
We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!
In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.
In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.
Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.
Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.
He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.
The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?
To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.
Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.
I believe Oliveria earns victory again.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165
Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.
69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.
Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.
So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.
Three Fighter Parlay
Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.
Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.
Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.
1.47u returns 1.0u
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Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.