This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.
T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.
This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.
2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.
Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.
Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title
Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.
He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.
Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.
In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.
Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.
Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.
Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.
Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.
In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.
This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135
Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)
Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.
Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.
In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.
For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.
Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.
Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.
Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.
Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.
Volkov +285
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300
Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.
Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.
‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.
In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.
Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.
In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!
As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.
Choi +120
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170
Heavy lean over
Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!