This Saturday’s UFC FN 104 takes place at the UFC’s APEX facility where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans will be in attendance. Preliminary action begins at 1pm PST with the main card dropping at 4pm PST.
There are fourteen scheduled bouts for this event with the preliminary action kicking off at 1pm PST. Four big boi fights which are matchups featuring welterweight fighters or larger populate the card, and the mix of countries. which is always interesting includes (beside the usual Brazil, Russia, US) Congo, Venezuela, South Korea, and Ecuador just to name a few.
Gathering trained combatants from every corner of the world who arrive to battle with every conceivable combination of fight specialties and a focused mentality all sporting diverse physiques is what fascinates me about the UFC. These athletes, all prepared for war are then led into a cage to determine whose fighting method is the greatest is man’s earliest passion …and I must say that it is mine also.
Favorites you ask?
Why yes, this year they’re 51-34-5 or 56.6% which is fourteen plus points lower than what we experienced last year! That’s a big regression but it is early…let’s see if this regression is sustainable as investing in underdogs is becoming fun/profitable again.
Marvin Vettori -155 vs. Roman Dolidze +125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Eleventh ranked Dolidze arrives to this rematch without major fight decorations however his mixed martial arts arsenal is forged from Sambo and BJJ which he developed as a youth. Dolidze also won a Grappling FILA world championship.
Dolidze is aggressive and forward pressing in attack. He is strong, determined, durable and experienced. His cardio, once a concern, has evolved as witnessed by his five round decision loss to top ranked Nassourdine Imavov last February.
Five years the older fighter at thirty-six, Doilidze’s remained active as this will be his third fight in eight months as well, he takes this rematch after coming off of two straight wins.
Vettori, thirty-one, is the eighth ranked middleweight. He has dominated the division’s masses but struggles when he competes against the elite middleweights where his forceful, bullying tactics and singularly dimensioned attack are less effective.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see much of what we saw in the first fight between these two except this competition will/should last twenty-five minutes as opposed to fifteen as this is a main event fight.
Should a finish arise, it’s my judgement that Vettori could find a way to ground and pound the Georgian late in this fight should Dolidze struggle with his old foe, cardio.
I regard these two athletes as being in different hierarchies of the middleweight division. Vettori is elite and it’s my judgement that Dolidze is not to that level.
This fight is lines 4.5Rds over -215 so if it’s fireworks, finishes and a frenetic pace you fancy then it may be best to watch the earlier fights on this card.
Vettori -155
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -195 vs. Chidi Njokuani +170 Welterweight co main event
Fireworks!
While grappling, wrestling, and clenching may best define what we expect from the main event, the co main event should award us with two fighters who are characterized by their pure power striking, forceful forward aggression, and flamboyant fighting styles.
Chidi is a lightning fast, explosive power striker who is trained in kickboxing, Muay Thai and has earned a black belt in BJJ. For up to six minutes of competition time, Njokuani exhibits dynamic abilities however after six minutes his effectiveness can wane.
Chidi’s owns a four-inch reach advantage and will sport a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, both great advantages in a fight that remains standing which is expected in this war.
Chidi’s height, reach and straight down the middle striking will provide certain leverage over Elezeu dos Santos especially early in the fight when he is firing fresh.
For the Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos, his approach revolves around staying out of Njokuani’s range early in this fight. How he executes this will be fascinating to determine. Does he try to play the stand-up game long enough to forcefully enter the pocket on the striker or will he come out blitzing from the start and try to engage this monster from inside the pocket when he is fresh?
A flamboyant Capoeira striker with Muay Thai accents Elezeu displays speed, precision, and power with his stand up and it’s this matchup of striking specialties that has fight fans yearning to understand the result of this clash of warrior styles.
In my judgement this fight sets up to be favorable for Njokuani because Zaleski dos Santos must come forward in order to make this fight either striking or grappling.
However, should the Brazilian find inside access to his adversary early in this fight he’ll be in position to sap the slugger of his snap by forcing him to defend.
It’s at this juncture of the fight that we discover if Elezeu can maintain inside position and wage war or if Chidi is going to ‘bang’ ‘bang’ him from range.
Total in this fight is 1.5 Rds. Over -190
This is a fight card that I refer to as ‘due diligence’ cards in that there are many debut fighters as well, athletes with less than three UFC performances under their belts. We have one fight where a journeyman athlete is dropping two weight divisions to battle a debuting fighter!
Because of the obscurity of these athletes and my lack of data on them, I choose to use these fights to learn and often refrain from wagering upon them. This is that card!
Stephanie Luciano -230 vs. San Hughes +200 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)
Brazilian Luciano is tall, young, attractive and enters her sophomore fight in the UFC after defeating a woman that she fought to a draw on the Dana White Contender Series. She’s a striker.
Sam Hughes enters her ninth UFC fight 4-5. She comes to the cage with fierce determination, tremendous cardio, and a founded grappling/wrestling base.
Hughes opened +275 so others are seeing what I am reporting on. That Hughes is in a great position to compete Saturday.
Hughes +200 .5u
The ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com is where one finds my releases for each week’s UFC event.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.