Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC FN Kansas City Garry vs. Prates: Future Schlock?

After eleven straight fight slates the UFC took a break over the holiday weekend only to line another set of ten fight cards together for our future investment consideration.

This week it is Fight Night Kansas City, Garry vs. Prates, a card with fourteen scheduled bouts consisting of athletes ranging from flyweight women to light heavyweight men.

An international set of gladiators will compete in a large thirty foot octagon, and in front of a full house of midwestern fight fanatics. Only eleven of the combatants on this schedule are from the United States with athletes coming in from all corners of the globe. China Georgia, South Africa, Mexico, Jamaica, and Uganda are represented just to name a few.

One facet of this event most important to understand, is where the few local/regional fighters are situated on this card as they may have some effect on the crowd then of course potentially the judging.

UFC Kansas City prelims begin at 3pm PT with the main slate airing at 6pm PT.

Let’s fight!

Ian Garry -130 vs. Carlos Prates +110 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian phenom Carlos Prates enters this fight with huge momentum and confidence brimming which is why he did not hesitate to take this substantial step up in competition after his original opponent Geoff Neal had to drop out of the fight.

Prates, a member of the gang of destruction that is Brazil’s ‘fighting nerds’ team is a world class Muay Thai striker who also holds a black belt in BJJ.

He is fearless, forward pressing, and ultra-aggressive. Prates has decimated all four of his UFC opponents faced, as well he has faced an improved, more refined adversary in each of those four bouts.

Prates attempts to walk down any opponent to plant feet and throw hammers. One thing he must improve, however, is his propensity to accept a strike as he accepts a slightly higher number of significant strikes per minute than he lands. Prates’ power is profuse, he has become reliant on tagging opponents and when he does, he shuts them down.

Irishman Garry who is now living in Brazil and training with the assassins at Chute Box is as close to a perfect opposite of Prates as we can find stylistically.

A black belt in Judo with improving grappling Garry is as highly athletic as he is brash and verbose. Garry’s strength in fights is to use his deft footwork, fluidity of movement and strike evasion to force opponents into lunging forward to engage, reaching and forcing engagement which has the result of leaving them wide open to Garry’s flash precision counter striking attack.

Garry’s been in with better competition, his experience coupled with his athleticism may simply be too refined and advanced for the forceful approach of this most dangerous pulverizer.

Prates carries momentum into the cage yet despite Garry taking this fight on short notice, I handicap his skills to be just a bit more refined, advanced, and developed for Prates especially understanding that this is a five-round battle.

Garry -125

Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -180

Over -180

Michel Perreira -145 vs. Abus Magomedov +120 Middleweight (185lbs.)

The middleweight division of the UFC is a deep and competitive group where some twenty of its athletes may be legitimately regarded as top fifteen combatants.

Fourteenth ranked and rising up the ranks in furious fashion in Brazilian Michel Pereira. Periera has blossomed as a fighter once he accepted the fact that he was compromising himself too much trying to compete in the lower welterweight division.

Handicapping Pereira, the middleweight mandates that one must wonder how the massive middleweight makes this 185lb division let alone how he ever made the 170-pound limit.

A black belt in BJJ as well as Karate, Pereira prefers to attack opponents immediately and unleash his power through a barrage of fists, elbows, knees, jumps kicks and tricks.

Flamboyant is an understatement for how Pereira fights, and in fact his Wildman approach can sometimes put him in compromising positions. A subtly refined and focused Pereira is expected for this battle as he arrives off a loss to Fluffy Hernandez, one in which he was exposed in his ability to effectively compete for a full five rounds.

Pereira is sure to be looking to rebound off that humiliating last loss.

In Abus Magomedov we have a Russian fighter who will be slightly older than Pereira but two inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. That height/reach advantage plays into his favor when this fight will be standing.

Magomedov’s striking to be honest is more workmanlike and less explosive in nature than is Pereira’s, but he delivers shots straight down the pipe and in classic boxing fashion as opposed to the wildly awkward angles that his maniacal adversary Pereira will hurl at him.

Once this fight enters the second round, we will witness one or both men begin to wane as neither is known for deep cardio ability so conditioning and pace stand to be an important aspect of this fight.

With a victory Pereira regains some momentum he lost to Hernandez in his last bout, but a Magomedov win catapults the Russian up into the middleweight rankings allowing him to threaten the top fifteen.

This is a very important fight in the division.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday midday PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops just after weigh-ins are completed. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport

The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.

Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.

This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.

Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…

I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.

The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.

It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.

I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).

Oh Canada!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: lord ..have mercy

Miami, Fl is the host city for this week’s UFC 314 a PPV event.

This fight card from Miami is scheduled for 13 bouts of which three will be competed at 170 lbs. or above. The larger octagon is in use in Miami and the crowd will be festive, furious, and frenetic.

Early prelim action starts at 3pm PT with preliminary fights dropping at 5pm PT and the main card 7pm PT.

Last week I put up a stinker with both of my releases losing a total of 2.5u bringing this year’s digital results to 7-10 -3.45u

Time to dig in.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Diego Lopes +105 Featherweight Championship

Two years ago, Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC and took current featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s fourth ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice! Many including myself, feel that Lopes actually won that fight.

Since that decision loss, Lopes has scorched all five featherweight adversaries leading into this championship opportunity and in each case the level of competition he faced in those opponents increased.

That will be no different this week.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will be the younger man in this title fight by five plus years, he’s six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the former champion.

He employs an aggressive forward-pressing striking attack backed up with brilliant BJJ. Lopes is tough, durable yet and as importantly, he enters brimming with the confidence that comes from destroying his last five opponents. Now he competes for the belt he has always dreamed of capturing.

Alexander Volkanovski is the featherweight division’s most elite champion. However, at thirty-six years of age and coming off of two decisive knock-out losses, many believe that Volkanovski may be on the other side of his prime.

Those losses were to Ilya Topuria and Islam Makhachev, but those two assassins are the two top pound for pound athletes in the UFC currently.

I believe Volkanovski took the second Makhachev fight, the one in which he was finished in, too soon off the heels of the first Makhachev loss, the one in which he shined so brightly.

Then the warrior in him made the first mistake worse in rushing back to face Topuria, his second rush back to competition.

So now, Volkanovski enters this fight with over a year of rest which in this case seems a wise idea.

Once this fight begins, Volkanovski must be measured early when the young Lopes is his most fierce. Navigating the first ten minutes of this fight and forcing the younger less experienced Lopes to use mental and physical energy is foundational to Volkanovski success because in previous fights, Lopes has shown tired as fight extended.

Those that believe Volkanovski is able to execute the same plan against Lopes as he used against Max Holloway in three epic battles will have an easy time picturing how a Volkanovski win will appear, deft movement and combination striking/kicking.

Those that feel Volkanovski’s skills have waned from those past two losses will take the position that he will be unable to execute such a plan against Lopes at this age and after two substantial knockout setbacks.

The key to this confrontation comes down to Volkanovski’s ability to navigate this fight into the third round and perhaps beyond where Lopes has not yet been at this level of competition.

He’ll accomplish this by employing deft footwork with striking quickness/precision all while relying upon his deep championship pedigree.

Volkanovski’s depth of five round championship experience, his cardio, his complete fight arsenal and most especially his nimble footwork together with his depth of five round championship experience provide him advantage over anyone in the division but…he must have those legs.

Volkanovski opened -150 in this fight and is now -125. He was a buy at -150.

Volkanovski -125 or better

with advice to be patient and allow the flow on Lopes to continue, capture Volkanovski at his most advantageous price.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Jean Silva -325 vs. Bryce Mitchell +265 Featherweight (145lbs)

Thirteenth ranked Mitchell is a country boy from Arkansas who has a sturdy wrestling base and is as strong as a country mule. Mitchell is best in fights when he can control the pace by pressing opponents backward then entangling them with his takedown ability and wrestling acumen.

As capable a wrestler as Mitchell is, that’s how uncomfortable and awkward he is as a striker. Though improving on the feet, Mitchell’s striking and strike evasion skills are the reason he sells out to wrestle. Look no further than his loss to Josh Emmett two fight back to realize that on the feet Mitchell is susceptible against any formidable striker.

Jean Silva is not only a capable striker, he may be the scariest fighter in the division currently. He is short, compact, lightning fast and packs obtuse power in his frenetic striking style.

Silva’s not lost since 2018, and he’s finished all four of his UFC opponents. That mentioned, this fight with Mitchell does represent a step up in class of opponent for Silva as well Silva’s not competed against a wrestler of this ability prior, so there is a path of destruction for Silva. That path would be to allow this fight to transition to the canvas.

Silva’s momentum, his youth and his shorter compact physique, which he can emply to keep the taller Mitchell from taking him down, coupled with the threat of his one strike finishing ability force me to regard him as extremely dangerous in this fight.

One last note, for many reasons, the UFC may not be Bryce Mitchell’s biggest fan. They sometimes have a way of cleaning house in their own manner. Mitchell getting this absolute killer, at this time, off that devastating loss to Emmett two fights back seems to be a perfect example of what the organization can do to someone who is ‘on the fringe’ of their graces.

Silva via demolition

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -175

Virna Jandiroba -145 vs. Yan Xiaonan +125 Women’s Strawweight (115lbs)

In this battle Jandiroba, the division’s third ranked fighter who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai striking steps up into the elite of the division.

Jandiroba’s won her last four fights against ‘top’ competition in the division but that competition has not been ‘elite.’ In this fight, she enters into the realm of elite competition against China’s Xiaonan who has recently competed for the title.

Yan was a fighter long, thin, and almost frail when she entered the UFC. However, the UFC Institute in China, Chinese strawweight champion Weili Zhang and Xiaonan’s desire to become a proud Chinese champion together provided the impetus for Xiaonan’s steady transformation, growth and improvement in mixed martial arts.

Xiaonan will have a certain striking advantage when these two are on their feet. She is younger, taller and the more seasoned fighter as well she is the much stronger lady. Xiaonan understands that to earn victory, she’ll need to keep this fight standing.

Her size/strength will be great assets to her as well her past with champion Zhang for while Jandiroba is a cobra when she gets opponents to the mat, her challenge is that her wrestling is not complete enough to be able to take down such a large, structured woman like Xiaonan.

Xiaonan’s power striking, championship experience and take down defense are all advantages in this fight against the Brazilian Jandiroba who is less experienced at this level of the division and is more singular in fighting dimension/expertise.

Jandiroba opened -140 in this fight.

Xiaonan +125

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds Over -180

Weigh ins from Miami are 6am PT so the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop mid-morning PT this Friday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Murphy’s Jaw

The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.

The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.

Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.

Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.

Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.

The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.

Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.

Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.

In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?

This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.

Emmett +280 .5u

Patience as this number keeps rising

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190

Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event

Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.

Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.

Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.

Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.

The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.

Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.

Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.

Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.

The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.

Brito -210

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195

Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)

This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!

In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.

In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.

The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.

Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.

His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.

Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.

Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?

Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195

Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN London Edwards vs. Brady: Punch D’Leon

 

Last week’s Fight Night fight saw underdogs realize a 6-7 result. Favorites in the UFC this year are 56.4%, down considerably from last year’s 70.5%.

Two digital releases last week split resulting in a -.30 deficit, digital results 2025: 6-5 +.80u

Preliminary action for UFC LV 104 begins Saturday morning at 10am PST with the main slate kicking off at 1pm PT. This event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which are in divisions weighing 170lbs and above. I track these ‘big boy bouts’ to try to project how much violence/finishing potential may be on any particular card but that does not always hold as just last week, there were only three larger weight bouts, but nine of the thirteen fights ended in finish!

Three US fighters populate this London card, so we’ll witness a diversity of international talent, fight weaponry and athlete physiques entering this fight card from London town.

This March fight card has seen many of its thirteen matchups change favorites.

Leon Edwards +170 vs. Sean Brady -200 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Philadelphian Sean Brady is the division’s fifth ranked fighter. He’s a black belt in BJJ with a Muay Thai striking base to compliment his grappling.

Brady tore through the lower ranks of the division until he met up with current champion Belel Muhammad who pulverized Brady in a one sided second round striking clinic/exhibition.

Since that bout, Brady’s earned victory in two straight fights, however those opponents were truthfully not legitimate top ten talents.

Brady’s forceful with his forward pressure and strives at all costs to smother opponents, get up close then wrestle/grapple. His striking is in development and not overly refined, precise nor powerful for he uses striking only to position himself for the clasp.

Brady’s strike defense is of real concern and the fact that his last couple of opponents really could not expose him in that capacity seems to be getting overlooked.

Fromer champion Leon Edwards is now ranked as the number one contender. The Londoners’ advantages in this fight are many. He’s four inches taller and the southpaw will sport a two-inch reach advantage over Brady which is sure to present advantage when this fight is standing.

Leon’s a much better wrestler than most understand, and it is in his well-rounded fight arsenal, his physical attributes, and his ability to evade strikes that makes him a complete adversary before mentioning his experience in five round main event spotlights.

Leon’s a deft boxer striker with fluid movement whose striking has an accumulating effect because of the diversity of strikes/kicks he hurls. He’s also a solid wrestler with a black belt in BJJ who has faced the elite of the division.

Despite his accolades, the MMA community seems to believe that Leon’s performance in the first Usman fight (outside its last minute) then his display against Muhammad is his MO. I may beg to differ.

In Edwards last fight about a year ago, Belal Muhammad decided he was going to use his world class forward pressing wrestling acumen/pressure to smother Leon and wrest the title from him which is exactly what he did in a one-sided decision.

The question into this fight is whether Brady can duplicate that effort for a full five rounds. Surely his camp’s blueprint for success was seen in that Muhammad victory.

Once this fight starts it is my contention that Leon’s fluidity of movement, his take down defense, his precision striking/kicking and finally his five-round championship experience against the elite of the division he has faced will present him advantage without saying anything about that home crowd!

Edwards +170

Patience, wait to get the absolute best number on the Englishman.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Carlos Ulberg -275 vs. Jan Blachowicz +240 light heavyweight (205lbs) co main

Former champion Blachowicz enters this fight off a 2023 split decision loss to Alex Pereira then shoulder reconstruction immediately following. Usually that much time away is concerning but for a cagey veteran like Blachowicz, the time away had to have helped him prepare appropriately to arrive fresh and ready to fire in this most important battle.

Third ranked light heavyweight Blachowicz has a well-rounded MMA arsenal and he’s durable, experienced, and surely coming into this fight with the desire to make another run at the title, but he faces a young lion with momentum and ferocity.

The concern for the forty-two-year-old Blachowicz is that in this fight he is coming off injury and facing a man eight years his junior, who is taller, longer and coming in with an abundance of momentum.

In sixth ranked Carlos Ulberg we get an Aussie from City Kickboxing who is tall, long, young, and extremely well coached/prepared. A kickboxer/striker by nature Ulberg’s ability to grapple/wrestle will be tested in this fight if Blachowicz has any chance at winning.

Ulberg will be the stronger, faster, quicker man in the cage. He sports a positive 2.93 significant strikes per minute to Blachowicz’s +.50 so it will be at range that Ulberg will want to vie with the former champion, and it will be inside the pocket where Blachowicz must position himself.

Ulberg’s wrestling is not well established despite the fact that he sports an 83% take-down defense. It’s important to understand who he has fought, as his competitors had striking based fighting styles, none had accomplished forward pressing abilities. Ulberg’s simply not competed against the depth of wrestler/grappler than Blachowicz is even at forty-two years of age.

Fight fans will determine soon enough if Ulberg’s takedown defense is developed enough for him to dictate that this fight is to be competed on the feet. A stand-up bout at distance is mandatory for his chances of winning.

Should Ulberg be able to keep this fight at his reach, it is my belief that he has the ability to dominate Blachowicz with his movement, length, and superior striking/kicking acumen.

Jan must be able to plant his forehead on Ulberg’s chest, maul him over time and sap the strength/cardio from the blistering striker by forcing him to defend.

Jan MUST be able to force Ulberg to defend his wrestling early in this fight to gain his advantage late. Blachowicz next step is to force the rangy striker to the floor where the advantage will be all Blachowicz.

Where this fight takes place will determine everything in this fight and at this price I must regard Blachowicz, despite his forty-two years as live.

Blachowicz +240 

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -185

Marcin Tybura -120 vs. Mick Parkin +100 heavyweight (265lbs.)

Big Boys.

Polish fighter and eighth ranked Marcin Tybura is the athlete who arrives in the octagon Saturday with an advantage in level of competition faced he as well owns a depth of UFC experience.

A black belt in BJJ, the thirty-nine-year-old Tybura is more stringent grappling and in close quarters for his striking is telegraphed, slow, and singularly launched. In most fights and in this one especially Tybura’s success will be found in his grappling. Should he position Parkin on the canvas, he’ll possess great advantage over this less experienced foe.

Englishman Mick Parkin began as Tom Aspinall’s training partner but has slowly evolved into a recognized talent after going 4-0 in his first four UFC bouts.

The twenty-nine-year-old Englishman is a forward pressing power puncher who is long on durability and cardio. Despite the fact that he’s defeated athletes no longer in the UFC or on the cusp of its cutting board, Parkin’s looked like a fighter with promise and one that is quickly improving.

Tybura represents a certain step up for Parkin but Parkin’s one-inch height and reach advantages and the fact he competes in front of his hometown people must be considered. Then add the fact that fighters with ten years of youth advantage win at a 67% rate and we have ourselves what I consider to be a live local fighter.

Parkin +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available with all of my final releases for this UFC London card. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

Edwards is +175 at Westgate

originally published VSiN.com 3-18-25

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV104 Vettori vs. Dolidze: Bang Bang…out go the lights!

This Saturday’s UFC FN 104 takes place at the UFC’s APEX facility where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans will be in attendance. Preliminary action begins at 1pm PST with the main card dropping at 4pm PST.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts for this event with the preliminary action kicking off at 1pm PST. Four big boi fights which are matchups featuring welterweight fighters or larger populate the card, and the mix of countries. which is always interesting includes (beside the usual Brazil, Russia, US) Congo, Venezuela, South Korea, and Ecuador just to name a few.

Gathering trained combatants from every corner of the world who arrive to battle with every conceivable combination of fight specialties and a focused mentality all sporting diverse physiques is what fascinates me about the UFC. These athletes, all prepared for war are then led into a cage to determine whose fighting method is the greatest is man’s earliest passion …and I must say that it is mine also.

Favorites you ask?

Why yes, this year they’re 51-34-5 or 56.6% which is fourteen plus points lower than what we experienced last year! That’s a big regression but it is early…let’s see if this regression is sustainable as investing in underdogs is becoming fun/profitable again.

Marvin Vettori -155 vs. Roman Dolidze +125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked Dolidze arrives to this rematch without major fight decorations however his mixed martial arts arsenal is forged from Sambo and BJJ which he developed as a youth. Dolidze also won a Grappling FILA world championship.

Dolidze is aggressive and forward pressing in attack. He is strong, determined, durable and experienced. His cardio, once a concern, has evolved as witnessed by his five round decision loss to top ranked Nassourdine Imavov last February.

Five years the older fighter at thirty-six, Doilidze’s remained active as this will be his third fight in eight months as well, he takes this rematch after coming off of two straight wins.

Vettori, thirty-one, is the eighth ranked middleweight. He has dominated the division’s masses but struggles when he competes against the elite middleweights where his forceful, bullying tactics and singularly dimensioned attack are less effective.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see much of what we saw in the first fight between these two except this competition will/should last twenty-five minutes as opposed to fifteen as this is a main event fight.

Should a finish arise, it’s my judgement that Vettori could find a way to ground and pound the Georgian late in this fight should Dolidze struggle with his old foe, cardio.

I regard these two athletes as being in different hierarchies of the middleweight division. Vettori is elite and it’s my judgement that Dolidze is not to that level.

This fight is lines 4.5Rds over -215 so if it’s fireworks, finishes and a frenetic pace you fancy then it may be best to watch the earlier fights on this card.

Vettori -155

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -195 vs. Chidi Njokuani +170 Welterweight co main event

Fireworks!

While grappling, wrestling, and clenching may best define what we expect from the main event, the co main event should award us with two fighters who are characterized by their pure power striking, forceful forward aggression, and flamboyant fighting styles.

Chidi is a lightning fast, explosive power striker who is trained in kickboxing, Muay Thai and has earned a black belt in BJJ. For up to six minutes of competition time, Njokuani exhibits dynamic abilities however after six minutes his effectiveness can wane.

Chidi’s owns a four-inch reach advantage and will sport a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, both great advantages in a fight that remains standing which is expected in this war.

Chidi’s height, reach and straight down the middle striking will provide certain leverage over Elezeu dos Santos especially early in the fight when he is firing fresh.

For the Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos, his approach revolves around staying out of Njokuani’s range early in this fight. How he executes this will be fascinating to determine. Does he try to play the stand-up game long enough to forcefully enter the pocket on the striker or will he come out blitzing from the start and try to engage this monster from inside the pocket when he is fresh?

A flamboyant Capoeira striker with Muay Thai accents Elezeu displays speed, precision, and power with his stand up and it’s this matchup of striking specialties that has fight fans yearning to understand the result of this clash of warrior styles.

In my judgement this fight sets up to be favorable for Njokuani because Zaleski dos Santos must come forward in order to make this fight either striking or grappling.

However, should the Brazilian find inside access to his adversary early in this fight he’ll be in position to sap the slugger of his snap by forcing him to defend.

It’s at this juncture of the fight that we discover if Elezeu can maintain inside position and wage war or if Chidi is going to ‘bang’ ‘bang’ him from range.

Total in this fight is 1.5 Rds. Over -190

This is a fight card that I refer to as ‘due diligence’ cards in that there are many debut fighters as well, athletes with less than three UFC performances under their belts. We have one fight where a journeyman athlete is dropping two weight divisions to battle a debuting fighter!

Because of the obscurity of these athletes and my lack of data on them, I choose to use these fights to learn and often refrain from wagering upon them. This is that card!

Stephanie Luciano -230 vs. San Hughes +200 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Brazilian Luciano is tall, young, attractive and enters her sophomore fight in the UFC after defeating a woman that she fought to a draw on the Dana White Contender Series. She’s a striker.

Sam Hughes enters her ninth UFC fight 4-5. She comes to the cage with fierce determination, tremendous cardio, and a founded grappling/wrestling base.

Hughes opened +275 so others are seeing what I am reporting on. That Hughes is in a great position to compete Saturday.

Hughes +200 .5u

The ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com is where one finds my releases for each week’s UFC event.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV103 Kape vs. Almabaev: Don’t pull on Superman’s Kape

The UFC is in the midst of an eleven-week run of fight productions, this week they host LV 103 at the APEX in Las Vegas where fans are few and the 25’ smaller octagon will be in use.

This card has twelve scheduled fights. There are but three big boy bouts featured in this smaller cage, a Welterweight fight, a middleweight co main event and a heavyweight tussle which is on the underbelly of this slate.

Some may choose to criticize obscurely populated fight cards such as this, however I choose to tip my hat to the UFC for deftly populating each fight card despite the many last-minute changes, cancellations, and injuries. The UFC offers fight fans ten to fourteen bouts per card, forty-four to forty-six times each year, and never cancel an event.

Last week the Moldovan Hulk Ion Cutelaba, submitted his overmatched Turkish opponent as a +165 underdog. Ion’s quick work allowed us to take a huge bite out of this year’s slow start as digital results now stand: 3-4 -1.60.

Manuel Kape -218 vs. Asu Almabaev +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked Kazakhstani fighter Almabaev arrives to this five round main event in relative short notice for Kape was scheduled to fight top ranked men’s flyweight Brandon Royval.

Almabaev has a solid wrestling base complimented by employment of high volume striking. After entering the UFC from K1 Global then Brave, he’s won all four of his bouts although he has faced modestly talented UFC competition to date.

Manuel Kape is a fighter with immense talent but also an immense ego and an obtuse level of overconfidence.

He’s wildly athletic, strong for the division and when focused stands to be regarded as a top three talent. However, he is a bit of a bully, and he’s struggled with weight because he is too big for the division. Couple that with an ego the size of Texas and we have an athlete that can offer any type of performance, from lethargic and under active to lightning quick employing one strike fight ending power.

Kape, an athlete the UFC seems to like, started boxing at fourteen and developed a fluidity of movement, a quick striking offense backed with precision kicks, and he levies profuse power from all limbs.

Kape has three losses in his UFC career, two early losses to fighters who were more experienced and able than he then and a loss to a high-level wrestler two fights back which will be the blueprint for Almabaev in his attack.

A motivated Kape will be difficult for anyone in the division to best but trying to determine which Kape shows up to this fight is almost folly in my opinion.

Kape fights a competitor that has the wrestling/grappling tools to execute exactly what those adversaries in Kape’s three losses did. Almabaev could well be a live underdog in this fight.

Kape opened -250 and is currently -235 with the total lined 3.5Rds Over -200 after opening -150 and it’s rising. We’ll likely see 4.5 as the total by the time mid-week rolls up.

No determination can be made on this fight until weigh-ins if at all, but I hold interest in Almabaev should Kape come in late and heavy.

Julian Marquez -170 vs. Cody Brundage +140 Middleweight co main event 

Two highly desperate fighters compete in the co main event on Saturday.

With a win, one athlete has the chance to solidify standing in the UFC middleweight division, but a loss more than likely puts the loser on the cutting board as both of these backed up battlers enter with this brawl with dubious past performances.

In Marquez we have a power striker who is tough, durable, and willing to engage. Marquez will own height and power advantages over his opponent Saturday but the fact that he is now thirty-four and coming into this fight off of three straight early round finishes is troubling. He must thwart takedowns, keep his opponent standing and be able to expend high energy for fifteen minutes, all of which Marquez has struggled to do previously.

His opponent Cody Brundage has had his own set of futile early career UFC performances, yet it was during a dominant loss, to Bo Nickal where we saw unrelenting forward pressing aggression, wrestling pop and striking ability from Brundage let alone determination which is something he has struggled with in previous fights.

Brundage actually performed his best against a dominant future star in the organization. Since that Nickal fight Brundage had a semi competitive bout against a power striking middleweight in Abdul Rakak Alhassan that was declared a no contest back in July.

So, in this co main event we have two desperate fighters, one, Marquez, a power striker with limited cardio who can wilt under the pressure of any forward pressing wrestler/grappler and the other Brundage, the wrestler who has been finished by strikes twice in his career and can wilt under opposing pressure when a bully opponent flushes him on the face with fists.

In my judgement this bout comes down to cardio and deep seeded guts/grit/heart. In Brundage I have the younger athlete with cardio I know I can trust. He must ensure that he does not get touched early in this fight because if he can force unrelenting pressure on Marquez, take distance away from him and not get discouraged in the early stage of this fight then I feel he can win this battle.

Brundage +140

I would consider via decision props also

Total in this fight 1.5Rds. Under -135 and this price is rising….

Jose ‘Chepe’ Mariscal -495 vs. Ricardo Ramos +400 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Chepe attacks adversaries with aggressive forward pressing power striking and he backs his striking up with a solid judo base. He is a simple ‘seek and destroy’ fighter. He trains in Colorado at Team Elevation, so we know his cardio is exemplary, he is 4-0 in the UFC and enters this fight with swelling confidence. Chepe opened this fight as a favorite of -180 and has been bet up to -410.

His opponent is Brazil’s submission specialist Ricardo Ramos who opened a +155 underdog to Mariscal and now finds himself being disregarded as his current price is +350.

Ramos has struggled with fighters that can overpower him, ground him then bully their way into a submission because he has little to no wrestling to compliment his world class BJJ.

Good news for Ramos and fight fans is that Chepe’s no submission slickster by any means, he is a dedicated knock out artist.

8-5 in the UFC, Ramos, a black belt in BJJ, is the taller, younger, longer man in this fight. Those physical assets will work to his favor when this fight is standing. However, it is in Ramos’ best interest to try to eventually receive one of the aggressive, forward rushes that Chepe will unleash toward him, to wrap his neck, grab a single leg or clasp onto an arm. Ramos game will be to use the maniacal striker’s aggression against him which just happens to be the premise behind BJJ.

Can Chepe implode the younger taller more experienced Brazilian with his brazen aggression or will Ramos be able to lure Chepe into a submission of some form?

That is the intrigue of this bout.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -160

Lean Under

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV103 Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Gorilla in the fist

This week the UFC returns to its APEX center in Las Vegas, NV. where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans are able to attend. Prelims kick off at 1pm PT and the main card starts at 4pm PT.

Of the thirteen scheduled fights, five take place at welterweight or heavier as well fourteen US athletes populate the card with another nine from Brazil.

Last year I moaned incessantly about the 70.5% rate of favorites winning in the UFC. That number has regressed quite aggressively so far in 2025 as favorites stand 27-19-1 or 57.4%.

I dropped two bets last week on dismal dogs but one, Champion Weili Zhang who closed +135 dominated her fight against a singularly dimensioned and overmatched Tatian Suarez.

Digital results stand 2-4 -3.15 on the year.

Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs. Jarod Cannonier +165 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Cannonier is the seventh ranked middleweight in the division. He’s competed from heavyweight to middleweight throughout his illustrious career and at forty years of age enters a most pivotal fight as his top ten standing lies in jeopardy with a loss here.

Cannonier’s defeated the elite of the division prior to his last two fights. Those losses, to Ciao Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov respectively showed Cannonier to be a true warrior if not an undersized forty-year-old competing against larger, faster, more powerful adversaries.

Saturday, he takes the cage against another highly skilled and dangerous mixed martial artist. This will be Cannoniers the third competition and second main event in eight months! Three in eight is highly active for a thirty-year-old middleweight let alone one that is forty.

Rodrigues, an eight-time amateur BJJ champion in Brazil, arrives to this fight winner of his last three however Rodrigues has not competed against the elite of the division as has his opponent, so this represents a step up in competition for certain.

Rodrigues is a sculpted specimen of a man who carries an abundance of power in any hammer he throws whether elbow, knee, or fist.

‘Robocop’ as Rodrigues is called will hulk over Cannonier. He’s three inches the taller fighter, he will grossly outweigh Cannonier come fight night and he’s the younger man by eight years.

When this fight begins, it will be a battle between the speed, legwork and fight IQ of Cannonier and the methodical, deliberate, forward pressing pressure applied by the aggressive Robocop.

Cannonier’s recent activity (in fact over activity) against elite competition cannot be regarded as advantageous. In fact, his accepting these top-level fights against younger ascending athletes with only weeks in between to recover/recharge is concerning, it tells me he is yearning to earn as opposed to grinding for a title?

Rodrigues -190

Youssef Zalal -380 vs. Calvin Kattar +310 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main

Like the main event this fight presents a contract of styles. In one corner we have a highly skilled, lightning fast, athletic, mixed martial artist in Youssef Zalal. He fights against a large, powerful, forward pressing boxer/striker in Cal Kattar.

Kattar’s last three fights have been against the top ranked fighters in the division. Sterling, Emmett and Allen represent a murders row of elite competition. Kattar went to decision with both Sterling and Allen which is impressive in itself. He was injured in the other fight.

Kattar’s advantages will be his size, experience and power striking.

Zalal in 2022, was released from his first stint in the UFC because he was just an ordinary fighter on a very good day and a poor one on all others.

He spent the next couple of years maturing and realizing that it is his fighting skill not his intellect which would allow him to realize financial success.

By the time Zalal worked his way back into the UFC last March he was a completely different man emotionally and physically. Since his return he’s dominated his last three opponents while stepping up in level of opponent for each bout.

With this fight, Zalal enters the cage in peak form as a fighter against a guy in Kattar who is thirty-six and focused on retaining his standing within the division as opposed to tearing through it.

Zalal’s focus manifested with his speed, footwork and well-rounded fighting ability present too much for a more deliberate yet durable athlete in Kattar as I handicap this fight.

The big question is whether Zalal has a chance to finish the tough Bostonian.

Total in this fight; 2.5Rds Over -240

Jose Delgado -265 vs. Conor Matthews +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Matthews, thirty-two, enters this fight 0-1 in the UFC and hungry to solidify his position in the organization. He’s not overly athletic nor has he competed against high level competition which is what he is going to get in this fight.

Delgado is a young gun from Phoenix who will come into this fight with a lethal striking plan backed up by world class wrestling/grappling. Delgado will be the younger man by six years, the taller fighter by three inches and he’ll hold a reach advantage all of which together add to advantage when these two are standing and striking.

Delgado is just another of the highly talented lighter weight professional athletes training at Phoenix MMALab. He is in a position to shine Saturday as this fight has been placed on the main card.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -200

I’ll release a parlay this week.

Delgado -265/Rodrigues -190 parlay: 1u returns 1.10u

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for each week’s UFC cards. Catch it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs. Imavov

This week the UFC visits Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for a Fight Night event scheduled for twelve fights and headlined by former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Adesanya faces fifth ranked middleweight Nassordine Imavov.

The large thirty-foot octagon and a raucous Saudi crowd will greet each battle with vigor. Scheduled for this card is a women’s Flyweight fight. Women competing in a UFC bout in Saudi Arabia has been down right rare up until Saturday.

As a special reminder, fight prelims begin at 6am PST so viewers on thew west coast may mix their KO’s with coffee.

Favorites this year stand 15-10-1 so there’s been immediate regression at the start of 2025 which is welcomed by underdog chasers. I’m interested in determining if these first two cards of the year represent potential long-term correction or simply temporary relief from the stringent rate of favorites from last year.

Thus far in 2025 digital fight results stand 1-2, -1.0u on the strength of Islam Makhachev’s submission victory over late replacement Renato Moicano in UFC 311.

Israel Adesanya -166 vs. Nassourdine Imavov +140 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov is a Russian athlete training in Paris France.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last three bouts against respected, ranked middleweight competition.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking is power based and under rated though not flashy and precision based.

Imavov’s strength is his durability and toughness. His focus is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can be depleting. In past fights, Imavov’s high output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war.

In former Champion Adesanya we have a perfect dance partner in fight style to Imavov’s pressure grappling.  Adesanya is fluid afoot, deft in his ability to kick/strike, counterstrike from any angle. His ability to maintain space to deploy his offensive attack is exemplary. Adesanya’s manipulation of space creates unique striking/kick angles which position him to damage opponents over time with striking/kicking volume.

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This fight represents is a great clash in styles as Imavov will work to close the distance between he and the former champion in order to press him against the cage then eventually ground him where he may use his strength and grappling to bludgeon and batter the former champion and make him question why he is still fighting.

Adesanya, that is a motivated, focused and pinpoint Adesanya, will work to maintain distance using footwork, volume striking/kicking and deft strike evasion and he’ll be able to execute that for all five rounds.

Adesanya’s goal will be to accrue damage to Imavov with knees, kicks and strikes using unorthodox angles, unusual speed, and a precision kicking attack.

Where this fight takes place will be a great tell as to who is in control for Adesanya’s abilities are surely muted when he is on his back however Issy’s faced formidable grapplers in prior bouts and his 75% take down defense against the high level of competition he has faced must be acknowledged.

Adesanya’s athleticism, reach and length advantages will position him to potentially shred Imavov as long as Adesanya can keep this fight at distance and upright and provided he decides this is what he really wants.

Early on, this fight makes out to be a tight, competitive bout. However, should it enter the third round and beyond, it’s my judgement that a focused, motivated Adesanya with his experience and competition faced will hold advantage. There’s just one question..

Which Issy do we get?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Said Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Vinicious Oliveira +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

There is a deep seeded distain and rivalry between Russia and Brazil when it comes to MMA competition.

Nurmagomedov, the Russian athlete is long, tall and an international master of sport in amateur MMA.

After a loss to Brazilian Raoni Barcelos in 2019 Nurmagomedov has disposed of five fighters while losing an ultra-close contest to Jonathan Martinez in a fight I actually scored for Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov has the wrestling foundation that most Dagestani fighter’s posses which coupled with the last name makes him a worthy representation of Russian MMA.

In Brazilian fighter Oliveira, we get a flamboyant, ultra-athletic, electric, power striker from Brazil who is decorated in BJJ. He’s lightning fast, ultra-aggressive and takes fights directly to opponents with only the intent to finish.

In this fight Oliveira will be the younger man by three years, he’s slightly taller than Nurmagomedov and his switch stance fighting style will provide Nurmagomedov plenty of tactical problems.

Nurmagomedov must try to ground Oliveira, gain top position then beat the BJJ out of him from the dominant position, that will be his singular goal.

Nurmagomedov’s striking will look subpar while these two compete on the feet for the Oliveira athleticism, footwork and striking acumen will provide him great advantage as long as this fight remains upright.

Nurmagomedov will sell his soul for the takedown and where this fight takes place will offer fans great insight into who will hold advantage in this great clash of national fighting philosophies.

Nurmagomedov opened -278 in this fight.

Total in this fight 2.5 rds. Over -145

Mike Davis -135 vs. Fares Ziam +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

French fighter Ziam has looked razor sharp in his last four bouts. Ziam is tall, long and has solid striking ability however his take down defense and wrestling are nominal in approach. Ziam’s been able to dominate average talent in the cage with his striking alone, He has faced few adversaries who have shown the ability to mix up the attack and pressure him with both a wrestling threat and striking fluidity.

With Mike Davis we get a fighter who has been relatively inactive. The young man has had to overcome injury in order to compete and his ability to remain active has been difficult. When he does enter the octagon, Davis has shown the ability to fight effectively on the feet by using volume power striking and intense forward pressure but he has the wrestling base to compete in this fight where he seems to have great advantage.

Davis is different from other recent Ziam opponents in that he has formidable wrestling, and it is in his ability to mix it up and display a well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry that provides him advantage in this fight.

That Davis has been inactive is not his fault and if anything, he arrives to this fight fresh, ready to fire and completely under the radar.

Mike Davis is a potential top fifteen athlete in the lightweight division and on Saturday I believe he has a great performance.

Davis -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Friday early AM the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my final releases for this fight card. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

Using Circa lines

GambLou.com

It’s Business