Posted on Author Lou Categories General

Money Morning Profitability

This week UFC profitability took a hit although the deficit could have been much worse. GambLou ‘Bout Business results stood 1-5 -2.72u. Fortunately I felt the risk in both Diakiese and Herbert so the .5 unit outlays saved us some money.

The lone win was our Aspinall parlay but what goes unrecorded is the Daniel Marcos victory that sets us up with Jon Jones +117 in his upcoming title bout with stipe Miocic. Jones is currently -375 for that bout.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 59-58 +15.34u 13% ROI (+125)

I have released the first NFL Season total positions to clients.

Any interested NFL business people please hit the ‘NFL’ tab at the top of this webpage to see the opportunity I offer any interested in 2023 NFL profitability.

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Aspinall vs. Tybura: London flog

  • GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop this morning 10am PT ish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first bell for London England’s UFC Fight Night this Saturday rings at 12pm EST/9am PST stateside so be prepared fight enthusiasts.

Fifteen of the thirty athletes on this card are of English, Irish, Scottish, Spanish or French heritage, an important aspect to these bouts and only two fights feature fighters competing outside of Europe.

The last London fight card was this past March. On that card we witnessed welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his title against Kamau Usman but more importantly, we witnessed the European athletes succeed in 9 of their twelve bouts.

Many fight enthusiasts feel the UFC in its zeal to expand its product often presents certain local competitors’ ‘favorable’ matchups. You may include me in that many but with that said the potential advantage lies not in siding with the locals but on handicapping which one it will be that may falter!

Tom Aspinall -490 vs. Marcin Tybura +370 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Tenth ranked Polish heavyweight Tybura enters having won seven of his last eight bouts. A black belt in BJJ, Tybura is a threat in the clinch, pressing opponents against the fence and when he’s earned top position on the ground when he’s able to take the fight to the floor.

On his feet Tybura is somewhat deliberate, telegraphing and often hesitant to fire combinations choosing rather to maul, clasp and hug.

In this fight Tybura will be facing the most dangerous test of his career for fifth ranked Englishman Tom Aspinall, will be the taller, younger, quicker and more athletic big man in the cage.

However, Aspinall’s entering this fight off a knee injury loss to Curtis Blaydes last July.

It’s my belief that a year is the minimal amount of time a fighter would need to be 110% ready to fight again coming off an ACL. Aspinall’s recovery and performance will be scrutinized by the whole of the MMA community so it’s important for the young man to arrive prepared and ready for the firmest test of his career.

Aspinall if on his game is a deft moving, athletic, black belt in BJJ himself.

In fact, Aspinall’s dad is a black belt so mixed martial arts are what Aspinall was born into and we can only surmise that his preparation for this fight has him ready to perform.

I do have several questions in this fight though.

How does Aspinall move and maneuver especially early when he has been so lethal prior to this setback?

Will he be hesitant to fire, engage or initiate?

Can Tybura back Aspinall up and force the clinch and force Aspinall to hurl leverage and pressure on that injured leg?

Should Tybura force this fight to the floor and even gain top position, will he be able to hold authority over Aspinall who is trained with similar BJJ weaponry than he?

And the most important question which is critical to Tybura’s chances, what happens should Tybura be able to take this fight past two rounds?

Aspinall’s fought into the second round in only one of his last several bouts. It’s logical that Aspinall will try to finish his opponent early but what happens if he cannot get the durable tough Polish pugilist out of there in the first ten minutes?

For Tybura, it’s about taking Aspinall into the second round then deeper. Tybura must deploy forward pressure and use his durability to force Aspinall to defend, toil, then ideally tire.

Tybura knows his best opportunity in this fight outside of a flash spinning kick or KO of some form, is to force Aspinall to fight past the second round and take him where he has not been before. There Tybura may be able to test the Englishman’s cardio, his knee and ultimately his will.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -175

Lean Over

Chris Duncan -145 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +120 Lightweight (155lbs)

Each of these combatants were featured on the last London event. Each won their respective bouts.

While the short, squat Israeli Ashmouz proved to be explosive and powerful, the taller, longer Scotsman Duncan performed like an athlete that needs to develop some wrestling ability, refine his strike defense and increase his cardio.

It’s dangerous to consider positioning against a local European athlete competing in London town but in this case, I feel that Ashmouz, a fighter best judged by his abilities as opposed to his physique is in a strong position to soften Duncan’s body early then touch him up later in the fifteen-minute fight.

Ashmouz +130

Props later this week may prove interesting especially based on the total price below.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -175

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

Money Morning: Account or profit will never amount!

This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Bueno Silva: Devil wears Prado

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

Money Morning: Accounting

I publicize results regularly for business purposes of course but also because so few do. They’re simply unable derive profit from their wagering so early on I thought I’d let my profitability be public knowledge in order to be able to offer a voice when it comes to Profitable Sports Gaming.

In fact, I’d like readers to know that here is where you may come to peruse articles and offerings all designed to contribute to your growth and development as a profitable gambler.

Last week in the UFC 290 card I realized a 3-2 +2.10u result.

To date in 2023 the ‘Bout Business Podcast stands: 56-51 +17.46u 16% ROI (+122)

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC event which is some 44-47 weeks per year!

You may access GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast simply by hitting the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage. You’ll be provided a direct link to the broadcast.

I have exciting offerings as we approach the fall so please keep this page bookmarked, if you have any questions or issues: Lou@GambLou.com

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov: Like Grant through Ismagulov!

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov!

This week I’m posting ‘Bout Business Podcast UFC releases on the GabLou.com webpage as backup because I am unable to complete the podcast today.

Last week we enjoyed a banner result profiting 4.77u.

2023 profitability stands: 50-47 +14.98u 15% ROI

Both Topuria -330 and Allen -215 delivered on the second legs of parlays. We had each fighter in underdog positions.

I will be very aggressive moving forward in scouring for parlay positions that are set up between a couple of different fight cards. I like how that works for us.

Speaking of that, we lost the Della Madellena vs. Brady bout. Therefore our 1.0u +123 outlay becomes a simple win returning .48u. I’ll use the .48 profit on this card since those wagers are all now graded.

That leaves Covington -110 and Alexa Grasso +195 as our sole future positions along with the Randy Brown/Jalin Turner +111 parlay that will mature next week after that fight.

Ok here’s this week’s releases:

Round 1

Ivana Petrovic -215 vs. Luana Carolina +175

Carolina is a long tall Brazilian striking based fighter who packs little power and produces little by way of volume in her attack. It’s usual that Carolina is fending off incoming pressure from wrestlers/grapplers who understand that the way to defeat Carolina is to get her on her back where she is unable to get up or defend herself.

In debuting fighter Ivana Petrovic we have the exact form of fight style that is designed to give Carolina fits. In fact, I really view this as a set up fight designed to make Petrovic look good.

Petrovic -215/Moreno -195 +121 1u

Leg 2 of the parlay is Brandon Moreno -195. Moreno is on next week’s fight card.

Round 2:

Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 vs. Kevin Lee +180

Rinat’s an authentic Russian vice grip, but he’s stepping up in class for this bout. Kevin Lee’s going to be a desperate fighter who knows he’s been set in with someone the organization wants to test him with.

This is a fight that in his first stint in the UFC would be too much for lee at 170lbs. Now, I don’t think it is, in fact, I like Lee in this spot.

Lee +180 .6u

Lee decision +340 .4u

Round 3

Ismael Bonfin -320 vs. Benoit St. Denis +260

Bonfin is an explosive Brazilian hand grenade. He’s short, stocky, explosive, powerful and primarily a striker. In this one St. Denis, who is getting appropriate credit for showing toughness in a previous bout against Elizeo dos Santos is NOT getting enough credit for his power striking, size, his grappling advantage and the way he enters this bout off two UFC wins.

Key to this fight will be St. Denis surviving the first round then being able to inflict his size and grappling onto the inflated but most dangerous Bonfin brother.

St. Denis +260 .5u

Round 4

Morales -260 vs. Max Griffin +215

Morales a tall, powerful, twenty-year old Ecuadorian enters this fight looking to keep his momentum rolling. Morales coming off contender series, has two first round finishes entering this his third UFC bout.

Morales steps up in this fight, one that I view similarly to the Rinat and Lee bout.

Morales has shown great talent and ability but, in a situation, where he steps up in class considerably against a fighter as capable as Griffin forces me to have to make Mr. Morales prove to me that he is up for this much increase in the ability of his foe.

Griffin is pissed and he took his anger on this matchup (he saw this match-up as it is, a potential set-up fight for Morales) in training. He’s focused on making sure the UFC understands his abilities after the results of this bout are completed.

I like Griffin here because I believe I’ll get his absolute best effort and he’s the more versed well-rounded athlete and I believe we’ll see some wrestling from him.

Griffin +215 .5u

Round 5

Damir Ismagulov -105 vs. Grand Dawson -115

I released Dawson +110 earlier in the week when I could see his underdog position melting away.

Ismagulov lost his last bout to Tsarukyan then retired because of health in family issues. A month later, he’s back. Bad sign as far as I am concerned. Then Ismagulov claimed he did not train for Tsarukyan but he has for this fight.

I think Ismagulov is showing some slow regression in his quickness, his crispness in the cage and his ability to defend aggressive forward pressing wrestlers especially.

In Grant Dawson we get an ascending fighter who is displaying great progress with his relationship with Mike Brown and Florida’s ATT.

Dawson is still growing; he’s an unrelenting pressing wrestling grappling machine and I believe he will be able to smother Ismagulov’s space (Ismagulov so wants to be in striking battles) then clasp onto the Russian in order to force this fight to the floor where from top position Dawson can reign damage.

Dawson +110 1u

as released earlier this week

Thank for reading Fight Enthusiasts. Next week we’ll be back on the airwaves but it sure is nice to have the webpage back!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, NFL

Discipline

“You will never have a greater or lesser dominion than that over yourself…the height of a man’s success is gauged by his self-mastery; the depth of his failure by his self-abandonment. …And this law is the expression of eternal justice. He who cannot establish dominion over himself will have no dominion over others.”
― Leonardo da Vinci

Today’s Profitable Sports Gaming offering revolves around discipline.

Yes, discipline is often discussed but rarely practiced.

The best example is to look at the month of June/July. There’s oh so little to bet on so does one look to hardball, WNBA or because you love football does one begin to shop there?

Those benefiting moist from bettors making college football, NFL positions prior to the season are bookmakers.

Injury, trade, suspension, team developments etc. all may affect your bet especially and most specifically if you are betting any over or ANY positive outcome for player or team.

Rather, let the fools and those starved for action follow the pundits on the airwaves who are only on to make releases and fuel interest in betting when in fact there is little.

We are aware that the sportsbooks own/sponsor/support both VSiN and the Sportsgrid outfits, eh?

My advice is this:

Use your brain, do your own work and find a strong independent voice somewhere that you can trust to bounce ideas off of. At the end of the day, YOU are responsible for your end of year profitability.

Practice discipline NOW to enhance profit long term as opposed to looking for ‘action’ now and impeding your profitability over the long haul!

It’s business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

Dog days of Summer: Conduct your own Due Diligence!

After a couple of days down post College World Series my attention turns to NFL due diligence to supplement my UFC handicapping.

In July I conduct the many hours of research I require to profit in the NFL.

For the most part, I turn the VSiN’s and Sportsgrid’s OFF during this month so I can pollute my mind with my own due diligence and study. I want my thoughts formed based on my due diligence THEN I’ll work to try to break those down or fortify them in order to determine if they offer advantage or not.

I track opening numbers and the crazy, wild swings created by knuckleheads making early wagers foolishly (almost all early NFL wagers are foolish especially any positive ones) where injury, trade or other development can only thwart one’s chances of realizing a win with the bet.

Listen, the Bookmakers love these June/July betting shows that shower people with all kinds of NFL betting advice from ‘experts’ because it mostly results in a drove of knuckleheads making a foolish wagers or early wagers. Again, they’re damn near the same.

Now are their professionals in the marketplace who do and can hold advantage over NFL numbers early in the process? Of course, there are.

But they aren’t on those shows and they aren’t sharing their wagers with you until they beat to hell the advantage on the team. So, my best advice is to conduct your own research.

It’s this formula that will make you a professional.

Now, if you can’t perform your own due diligence because of time constraints etc. then you may simply consider trusting me because I do my own work and win on my own. I’m also here to bounce ideas off of.

At the end of the day, I don’t need no stinking pundits telling me who to take ‘over the number’ in June when there’s nothing but disadvantage to the wager!

Rather, I’ll look to any potential UNDER bets because in that scenario the injury/malady/suspension only adds advantage to any position taken! It’s really not the ‘modeling rocket science’ many numbers nerds make it out to be.

Stay here for more NFL, UFC and Profitable Sports Gaming thought as we approach the 2023 NFL campaign!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball

CWS final: LSU vs. Florida game 3

Ok Hardballers, we’re into the final CWS tilt with a Florida 10/1 active, we won’t walk away from this tourney without a little bottom line.

The wind and the ballpark do this every year. We were able to profit our way out of early loss with a solid run on the under’s and we had little sweat with them or the single Over we bet last evening.

I knew to take early tourney wagering light but next year I may take it even lighter.

As far as tonight is concerned, LSU has the fans in Omaha, the bettors nationally and most in baseball believing that they should be the favored team tonight. To me it sets up well for the Gators.

The coaching approach in the Florida dugout is well easier. The Gator coaches, players and contrarian gamblers are of the few who believe the Gators can David this goliath.

Tonight’s release:

LSU -128 (BOL)

5u to win 3.9u

Final Tournament scenario:

If LSU wins tonight profit is: 2.03u

If Florida wins tonight profit is: 3.13u

You as gamblers may manipulate the cover of the Florida 10/1 bet in any capacity you choose if you choose to do it at all! I believe Florida will upset the Tiger jello shots!

It’s now up to you to maneuver your own positions. The way I attack Profitable Sports Gaming is to make deposits and either way after tonight’s game that’s exactly what I’ll do.

Thank you for your trust and the ability for GambLou.com to contribute to San Xavier Mission!