This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.

The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.

Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.

Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.

Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.

Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.

Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.

In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.

Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?

The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.

While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125

Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

These two were scheduled to fight July 20^th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.

Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.

Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.

Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.

In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.

Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.

Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265

Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)

The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!

Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.

After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.

In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.

Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.

Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.

Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155

Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.

Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.

While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.

Carpenter -190*

Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Salt Lake City, UT is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.

Early Preliminary action begins at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 7pm PT.

This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged thirty-six or older.

The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.

Lat week I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u

Alex Pereira -450 vs. Kalil Roundtree +385 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title

Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.

The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the lady’s bantamweight title fight for this event and they went directly to Pereira as he is as popular with fight fans as he is lethal inside the cage against opponents.

Since July of 2022 Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz which together is proof that this monster is able to compete for a full twenty-five minutes and against absolute elite level light heavyweight competition.

In Roundtree we get the eighth ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists and committed to an aggressive dose of leg bludgeoning kicks.

Roundtree’s level of competition faced wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed so his step up in competition is substantial if I may be understated.

Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira who will be three inches the taller man in the cage and will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.

Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs so there is no real quandary in the fact that Pereira came -450 at opening for this fight.

This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.

Roundtree has intelligence, he has power and a forceful will, so we know he’s coning into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.

Total in this fight:  1.5Rds. Over -145

Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Pena is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022 which also happened to be the last time Pena competed in the octagon.

Pena’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue blet in BJJ Pena backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.

In Rocky Pennington we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ earned the title in a dynamic win over Myra Buena Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in similar grinding fashion.

Once this fight begins it will be Pena who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash damaging strike upon the Champion.

As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington as she must eliminate Pena’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as is the champion.

Standing Pena will hold advantage in this championship fight while in the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight in order for her to hold advantage.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angel Dundee would say and in this championship fight where the bout takes place will be indicative to who is in control of this fight.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince St. Preux +250 light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Spann, thirty-three is 6’5” tall is a front running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division however after the first round or so Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.

Spann’s power, cardio and more importantly he confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. It’s my opinion that his obstacles are mental for the man is tall, long, and violently natured.

In St. Preux we have an athlete that at 41 seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.

St. Prez’s more well rounded as a fighter for his striking is better than average and his forward pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout St. Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s one Kennedy Nzechukwu in an oh so close decision.

Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by St. Preux and Ovince must force this fight into the second round and beyond in order to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.

St. Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.

Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night and it’s my position that St. Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.

St. Preux +250

.5 unit investment

Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over

Lean over for St. Preux best interest!

Friday mid-day my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

This week’s UFC production is a Fight Night event from Paris, France. Early prelims drop at 9am PT. The fight slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts to be competed inside the traditional 30’ cage.

There are nine French fighters populating the card with one from Belgium whom I expect will be regarded by the French fans as one of their own in an event that has athletes competing from across the globe.

As is always the case, local crowds, athletes, and judging must all be regarded when handicapping these fights, especially those involving local fighters.

Favorites in the UFC stand 255-112-11 or 67.4%, that rate has held for most of the year and is higher than the traditional 63+/-% of the past several years.

In the NOCHE event, the Manuel Torres -120 setback cost us 1.20u. Sneak-Teep releases in 2024 now stand 16-9-2 +7.30u

Let’s pad that profit.

Benoit Saint-Denis -270 vs. Renato Moicano +225 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Moicano is the eleventh ranked lightweight. He’s finding success in the division after competing for years as a lighter featherweight weight fighter. He’s crafty, well-seasoned and has faced the elite in two different divisions.

Moicano’s recent rise in social media popularity is coupled with a winning run in mixed martial arts results. Moicano enters this bout against this ‘local hero’ opponent with momentum and belief. Two traits that can propel a fighter to championships.

Moicano’s game revolves around grappling and the submission. He is a black belt in BJJ as well he’s versed in Muay Thai striking but at age thirty-five and considering what he’s been through physically in his career Moicano’s ability to withstand forceful power strikes from opponents has waned.

To date, he’s been able to overcome his lack of durability with a beguiling ability to overcome firestorms, earn an inside/clasping position on less versed opponents then finish them like a spider does to a fly caught in the web.

In tenth ranked Saint-Denis, Moicano has his elite opponent.

Saint Denis is a huge man for the division, and he’ll hulk in size over the more svelte and former featherweight Moicano.

Saint-Denisa is a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in Judo. His striking is profusely power based though he can be wild and overly forceful at times and against world class BJJ practitioners like Moicano, wild is never advised.

Saint-Denis is a former member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment in France; he was awarded the Medal of the Nation’s gratitude and the Combatant’s cross after his five years in the French service.

This man is focused, he’s driven to success and his fighting acumen is derived from his father who was a gifted Judo practitioner and taught his son the art when he was in diapers.

Saint-Denis is the younger man by six years, he’s a southpaw who will be the faster man in the cage and he’s well more athletic/explosive than is Moicano.

BSD took time off from his Poirier loss (one he was rushed into in my estimation) to regroup and refocus himself for a run at the lightweight title, now that’ she’s tasted world class competition.

This fight against Moicano, in Paris, is a desirable spot for Saint Denis, highly desirable.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -170

Nassourdine Imavov -220 vs. Brendan Allen +185 Middleweight co main event

This scheduled five round battle will be epic.

In one corner we have a tough, gritty, redneck grappler from Florida expertly equipped in BJJ but still refining his striking ability.

Brendan Allen arrives in Paris with a seven-fight win streak intact. However, a closer look at the competition he’s faced shows that Allen’s defeated opponents that any top ten fighter in the division should have defeated.

He steps up in class for this stern test against top ten competition and the question to be asked is how he will fare against elite middleweights as a more singularly dimensioned fighter for Allen gives away striking expertise to any athlete currently in the UFC’s top ten middleweights.

Fourth ranked Imavov of Russian descent but fighting out of France solidified his ranking in the top five of this division this past June when he for all intents and purposes knocked Jared Cannonier out.

With a world class boxing base Imavov, 14-4 professionally has refined his mixed martial arts arsenal to include capable BJJ under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.

He is a most fluent striker with deft footwork and an abundance of damaging power with fists, feet, knees, and elbows. He specializes in striking/kicking precision, and he’s developed his cardio over the course of his last several fights against elite competition to provide him the ability to emit high output into the championship rounds.

6-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has matriculated his way into the top five of the division diligently and now has the opportunity to solidify himself as a potential championship contender by dominating Allen in this test.

Imavov will surely try to keep this fight standing where he’ll own great advantage over Allen and Allen will be shooting for the takedowns and attempting at all costs to eliminate any space between these two and make this a roll in the hay on the canvas of that Paris octagon.

I believe the intelligent, well-rounded fighting acumen of Imavov will be the difference in a fight that will highlight Allen’s toughness but also his lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

I like the fact that this is scheduled for five rounds. Each man has experience in five round bouts which contributes to this week’s digital release:

Imavov/Allen over 2.5Rds. -135

Taylor Lapilus -300 vs. Vince Morales +250 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Lapilus is a French fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC.

In his return Lapilus has displayed vast improvement in his fighting game and in this tussle, he’s had a full camp to prepare for an opponent that was injured and had to pull out of the fight just a week or so ago.

In, on short notice comes another former UFC athlete, Vince Morales who is coming off a notable win in United Fight League. He takes this fight with little to no camp in order to endear himself as a company man to the UFC.

So, with little to no camp or notice Morales travels into French territory to take on a local hero who has had the benefit of a full camp.

Build all your parlays around Taylor Lapilus fight Enthusiasts!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds over -300

I for one will be checking the ‘Lapilus via decision’ props based on that total!

Fights begin Saturday at 9am PT so prepare appropriately by accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast which will be up sometime Friday early morning!

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

This week the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with it’s Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.

It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70’s during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches almost all of which I attended.

Attending those fights, I observed AND absorbed of the passion of the Mexican fight fans as well the valor, guts, toughness and never quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.

This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155lbs. and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30’ Octagon.

Last week we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability which stands 22-17 +10.35u.

Let’s find another winning position in this Noche event!

Champion Sean O’Malley -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Champion O’Malley has gone from a young skinny precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well versed, and complete mixed martial artist.

O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically and within the realm of MMA.

He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his own momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.

Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct.

However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last seven years or so competing against with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have put him in position to both be confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types but more importantly to do so with the confidence that the opppo0onent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability.

O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.

Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup he is giving away massive advantages in age, height and limb reach to the champion.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think or act for they are constantly moving forward to press, smother and engage.

O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.

Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only and by that I mean that he has one single point of focus in fights and that is to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat then from top control open up the faucet and reign never ending ground and pound.

O’Malley requires space in order to flow while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a strait jacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.

Both of these athletes have vied against the elite of the division, and both belong in this fight, however only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Over -154*

Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him from his strength while the O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in position catch Merab with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.

It’s my judgement that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation and at this point those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now as his price is only going to go up while Merab maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price they can on the Tasmanian Devil.

Champion Alexa Grasso -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110 Women’s Flyweight title

This is the trilogy fight for these ladies.

Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound for pound women’s MMA GOAT.

Yes, even over Amanda Nunes however, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s thirty-six and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.

It’s my judgement that Shevchenko’s shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant Angelo Dundee taught me years ago.

Dundee would warn that; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills.

Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to will it. However, she’s now thirty-six and coming off two tough five round battles against Grasso, the current champion.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.

For Grasso, she’s had months to reprepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.

In both previous fights Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success and in each case those skills were enough to earn her the title.

Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this fight both camps understand that little separates these two world class fighters.

Different in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts and each one will be yearning to see the Mexican dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!

In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in history of the flyweight division let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout the course of history.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -200

I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.

Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Fight of the night!

Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6’3” and he sports a 75” reach allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.

He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries as he lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse one punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.

Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes that have the ability to forge forward, cut the cage and corner Bahamondes, thus taking his greatest asset away from him, his distance.

From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights the long, tall drink of water that is Bahamondes can begin to slow and it’s here where he is vunerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? That answer for me is an unequivocal yes.

Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is in the aggressiveness of Torres, his pressure, power strikes/kicks and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.

Torres striking is high output as he lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes is the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell for it is in Torres ability to mix up his attack that make him the more well dangerous fighter in this matchup.

Torres -120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Pick-em

Heavy lean to over

Friday mid-day PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com

Enjoy the Tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

After a week away the UFC returns to Las Vegas for two events, the first this week at its APEX center then next week at T-Mobile the world will get to experience UFC Noche an extravaganza that will be held in the new Las Vegas Sphere and headlined with two world championship bouts.

Digital results after the first eight months of the year stand 21-17 +9.28u which is a solid return considering that favorites this year in the UFC are winning at a 67.3% clip.

This week there are thirteen scheduled bouts for the smaller cage at the APEX. Three of the fights happen at 170lbs and above so hopefully we’ll get to witness violence from the many smaller bodied combatants!

Sean Brady -185 vs. Gilburt Burns +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Two gifted grapplers will meet in the middle of the octagon Saturday and rather than grope, grapple, and grind, these two will compete at least for a time on the feet. There Burns does possess the more developed striking while Brady has a believer’s confidence in his.

Brady will strive from the opening bell to drive this battle to the mat. On the ground this fight figures to be fascinating for the American Brady is an accomplished black belt in BJJ with Muay Thai skills and will be the slightly larger man while the Brazilian is a third-degree black belt with developed striking diversity and power. That said, he did spend much of his career at 155 lbs.

On the ground this fight can prove to be fascinating because watching the different dialects of BJJ compete at an elite level would be a treat, one I would love to witness especially with the larger men.

However, that type of high output, sustained effort is an approach that may well favor the younger athlete because of the enormous amount of energy needed to employ such a tactic for fifteen minutes let alone twenty-five.

Fighters seven years and younger than their opponents win roughly 65% of the time in the UFC and it is in this statistic that I believe Brady will hold advantage.

Burns will look crisp, sharp, and effective early but he must be able to sustain it. The constant forward pace/grind/pressure from Brady will be forced on Burns in an attempt to both negate his offense and tax the thirty-eight-year-old warrior of his cardio. Then, over the course of the championship rounds begin to display his advantage in this fight, his youth and ability to compete for a full five rounds.

This fight opened as a dead ‘pick-em,’ so I’ll watch how this line moves through the week and make any decision once the price stabilizes.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -180

This fight may well end up at 4.5Rds. so I’ll jump the Over 3.5 -180 and use it as the second leg of a parlay. (see below).

Natalia Silva -300 vs. Jessica Andrade +250 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Brazilian athlete and former champion in the UFC Jessica Andrade is a storied mixed martial artist who has competed effectively and for championships at two different weight classes in the UFC.

She’s competed against the elite of two divisions for twenty-seven fights spanning eleven years, so her resume is complete, yet she hungers to continue to be active.

Andrade’s found herself toiling in recent personal issues that mandate she stay busy and earn to help her work her way back into financial stability. This is why she has been taking as many fights so close together as we have witnessed over the last several months.

Andrade’s surely a future hall of fame UFC athlete but in 2024 and now thirty-two years old, her skills, particularly her speed, quickness and footwork have waned which is unfortunate as Andrade is undersized for flyweight and has been used to being the more fleet, skilled, athletic fighter in the cage. That will NOT be the case this Saturday.

In this matchup, Andrade is faced with a future star in Natalia Silva, a Brazilian mixed martial artist with refined striking and grappling skill, tremendous speed, and huge momentum.

While Silva is stepping up in class of opponent, that fact is that she’ll be three inches the taller fighter with the same amount of reach advantage as well Silva’s better than five years younger than Andrade.

Silva’s youth as with Sean Brady will be the assets both athletes rely upon to try to get their hands raised this weekend.

When the bell to round one rings, we’ll witness Silva’s advantages of speed, quickness and footwork are tangible and real. Those skills will guide her through this fight provided she has the cardio and level-headedness to maintain her distance and composure from the incoming raging fury of Andrade.

Silva must keep Andrade at the end of her strikes and blister the former champion with precision strikes, kicks knees and elbows as she tries to enter the pocket.

Speed kills.

Silva -300 parlay to ‘Over 3.5 -180 Rounds Burns/Brady.’

1unit invested returns 1.07 units

GamLou.com ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day T Friday. My final releases for this fight card can only be found there!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!