Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV96 Cannonier vs. Borralho: Undeterred Nerd?

The APEX in Las Vegas with its smaller octagon hosts this week’s UFC LV96. On this week’s card are two TUF final bouts which bring the total fights on the card to eleven.

Last week underdogs finally raised their heads and realized a 5-6-1 result which knocks favorites winning percentage this year to 66.7% which is still extremely high.

Let’s hope what we saw last week will not be such a rarity as we move into the last half of the 2024 UFC fighting calendar.

Digital results stand 21-16 +10.28u on the heels of King O’Neill’s (+145) victory.

Ciao Borralho -205 vs. Jared Cannonier +175 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

In fifth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete focused on a run at a title. Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age and though he usually competes like a man many years younger, in his last effort in June he did not.

Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya and his last outing, the aforementioned clunker against France’s Nassourdine Imavov.

At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested.

What I concern myself with is his IMMEDIATE desire to earn another title opportunity as opposed to waiting a few months to recharge. He may feel like his last fight was out of the ordinary or he could be rushing back in a touch of haste because he understands the odds of forty-year-old men competing in this game against skilled men close to a decade younger.

Cannonier coming off a TKO against Imavov just seven weeks ago compounds my skepticism.

This is a foundational fight for Cannonier and his future in the top five of this most competitive division.

In twelfth ranked Brazilian Borralho, we have the poster boy for his team which called the ‘fighting nerds.’

Borralho wears glasses and looks to be more valedictorian than middleweight challenger until he steps into an octagon.

He and team wear crooked glasses that tote white tape on the hinge to help them ‘look the part’ but sgangly, it to say that though these young athletes may look goofy, awkward, gangly and odd, please understand that each one is technically versed in their own world class dialect of BJJ and the martial arts.

In the cage Borralho is an elite talent. He is lightning fast; he has solid wrestling/grappling acumen to compliment his highly intricate athleticism and BJJ aptitude.

Cannonier is the man in this fight with the advantage in size (unusual) and experience. He’s been in against killers from three different UFC divisions. Primarily a boxing/kickboxing threat, Cannonier has also developed a grappling game though we’ve seen little of it in his past fights.

That may well change Saturday for it’s my belief that Borralho will force Cannonier into engagements that will test Cannonier’s grappling, take down defense and submission guard.

Key factors for me in this fight are Cannonier’s age, the attrition his body has taken from an extensive career in martial arts spanning three different weight classes and his desperation to get one more shot at the middleweight title.

Now coming into such a critical fight off of a near knock-out loss just two months ago has me wondering what the rush was for Cannonier to get back into the cage so fast and against this type of elite opponent.

We understand that fighters at least 9 years younger than their opponents have a near 70% rate of winning in the UFC. That coupled with the mixed martial arts weaponry of Ciao may make it a long night for Cannonier in the APEX Saturday if Cannonier is unable to back Borralho up and keep this fight upright.

In Saturday’s main event we’ll witness two world class 185-pound athletes contend for Cannoniers fifth ranked position in the division.

Total in this fight: 3.5 rds. Over -175

Michael Morales -600 vs. Neil Magny +470 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Last week I broke down a fight where novice Brazilian razor blade Carlos Prates fought wily veteran Li Jingliang of China. The gist of the write-up was centered around the dynamic speed, ferocity, precision striking/kicking and evasive defensive abilities of the YOUNGER Prates and how those abilities matched up against a methodical, grizzled, wily, durable, tough but aged veteran of the sport of MMA who had never been stopped prior.

Prates annihilated Jingliang. He was the first one to finish the proud Chinese warrior in the late second round of their fight.

It is unfortunate that thirty-seven-year-old Neil Magny, a long, tall, grizzled veteran of more than thirty UFC competitions would draw a more favorable matchup than having to face one of the most violent mixed martial artists in the organization in twenty-five-year-old Morales.

Magny arrives to this tussle off a nice upset win over Canada’s MIke Mallot this past January in a fight he was also totally disrespected in as he closed close to a +300 underdog so at least Magny is used to the treatment.

Magny’s a superior grappler whose long, tall frame sets him up with excellent submission abilities as well that height/reach advantage and his fluidity of movement on the feet is helpful when fights remain standing.

The issue, however, is that Magny is not fast or overly durable and while he is crafty, beguiling and has an exceedingly high IQ in the octagon he is also in the twilight of a lengthy career.

The incoming breed of young hungry and well balanced mixed martial artists are salivating to be matched up with these wise but aged UFC ambassadors in order to club them into unconsciousness then walk away with their position within the division.

I’ve said before, the fight game is one tough pursuit.

Morales, now twenty-five, is young, fast, powerful, explosive and a threat to finish any fight wherever said fight may go. His level of competition faced, and lack of experience needs cultivation and this fight with Magny is his first true test.

Magny will have to discover a way to use his experience and fighting acumen to perplex Morales, confound him with evasive movement/angles and keep him at the end of his strikes and kicks.

Magny cannot allow himself to be caught competing in any flat-footed striking encounters. He can’t allow Morales any ‘in pocket’ opportunities for a wide stanched power shot heaving because Morales is a fighter that can end any athlete’s night with one power blast.

In my estimation, what the UFC is doing to this fight ambassador is similar to what they did to Li Jingliang last week in putting him in with a foe he is unlikely to be able to compete effectively against.

UFC fans understand that in this realm of mixed martial arts, the fittest survive and there is little way to sidestep tomorrow’s future stars like this gifted newcomer Morales.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -175

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -185 vs. Josiane Nunes +160 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs)

Portugal’s Cavalcanti arrives in Perth ready for her sophomore UFC fight but in this matchup her foe is considerably more talented than the fighter she faced in her debut.

Cavalcanti, primarily a striker looks the part for sure, she’s 5’8” which will provide her a six-inch height advantage in this bout. She also holds a four-year youth advantage to go with her four-inch reach advantage.

Cavalcanti will want to keep this fight at distance and standing for her most advantageous outcome.

In Nunes we have a short 5’2” hand grenade. The Brazilian is also a power striker with an emphasis on power.

Despite the fact that she is tremendously undersized physically, opponents find out immediately that when fighting Nunes, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”

In this fight Nunes has an edge in fight experience and has been in with the more able set of opponents as well she beat the only UFC level fighter that Cavalcanti beat previously Zarah Fairn.

The betting market has taken Cavalcanti from -110 at open to the current -185 and that must be based on her size and some ‘Nunes fade’ as there is nothing other than those aspects to this fight that make me feel Cavalcanti has the advantage in this fight.

Nunes +160

Nunes decision should also come at a large plus price once released.

Don’t be afraid to add a touch of investment there especially with the total 2.5Rds. Over -260!

Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast is available at GambLou.com. Catch all of my official releases there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 305 Du Plessis vs. Adesanya: Perth of a nation!

Perth, Australia is the location for this week’s UFC 305.

Competing fighters will benefit from a hysterical Aussie crowd witnessing twelve scheduled bouts in a large 30-foot cage where preliminary action begins at 3:30pm PT.

The card features nine Australians seven of which face opponents from around the globe. As is always the case when the UFC travels to locations throughout the world, it’s important to understand who the local athletes are and which fighters if any are likely to benefit from potential favorable matchmaking, lack of travel as well potential ‘home cooking’ decision results.

Last week Sergei Spivak earned digital readers another unit of profit as he submitted Polish heavyweight fighter Marcin Tybura in the first round. Spivak is a heavyweight that can whup anyone on the roster save the top five ranked heavyweights in the division.

UFC favorites 2024: 220-97-8 (67.6%)

2024 Digital results: 20-16 +8.73 (+123)

Dricus Du Plessis +110 vs. Israel Adesanya -130 Middleweight (185lbs.) title

DDP is a massive sized profusely powerful South African kickboxing talent, he is 7-0 in the UFC but has only defeated two elite middleweight opponents, one could argue that the title he won came via a faulty split decision.

Du Plessis is a forward pressing, heavy handed striker who can numb legs with his kicks and shut down foe’s consciousness with this power striking. Du Plessis is neither swift afoot nor nimble evading strikes, but in his own way he is awkwardly agile, tough, durable and since his nose operation seems to be able to fight without any cardiovascular issues.

In former champion and second ranked middleweight Adesanya, Du Plessis draws an opponent not only four inches taller than he but one with considerable speed/quickness advantages. Despite the fact that Adesanya is now thirty-five the Nigerian is light years ahead of Du Plessis when it comes to innate quickness, precision striking, strike defense and athleticism.

With Adesanya the question is not whether he is capable of defeating Du Plessis, the question is whether Adesanya is property focused, trained, and motivated to take aggressive action when this fight calls for him to inflict damage.

When fighting for a UFC title motivation is rarely questioned and, in this case, with the rivalry between them and each claiming to be ‘the’ authentic African athlete motivation is not questioned. What may be called into question rather than motivation is emotion.

Emotion is rarely a fighter’s friend, it at all times must be checked and eradicated. That said, in this fight I sense an abundance of emotion emanating from Adesanya.

Adesanya’s physical fight plan is simple, use his speed, quickness, combination striking and deft defense to befuddle DDP and force him into becoming predictable by charging inside to engage.

For DDP he needs to be patient. Understanding that this is a twenty-five-minute fight, and it may take him all twenty-five to badger/frustrate Adesanya, force him into a corner then unleash power hooks and crosses to the body and head.

DDP will look to shut the lights out on Issy with bludgeoning strikes and kicks while Adesanya will look to shred DDP with accumulated volume and eventually take him out by utilizing space, time, angles, and combination striking…that is provided he is level, balanced and focused mentally.

This title defense is the FIRST real test for DDP as he was awarded a close decision against Strickland and now, he must face Issy in Australia with all his fellow ‘sandgroppers’ cheering him on.

DDP has been chiding Issy constantly leading up to fight week and I wonder if his quips about Issy being in his own head may be getting to the former champion.

DDP must remain logical and clinical in this fight, He must follow his plan and hope that over time he can suck some of the speed and zip from Adesanya in order to try to catch him with any form of devastating strike, kick, or elbow.

Adesanya for his part must remain stone faced and without emotion, if he can maintain his emotional control, he stands a great chance of finishing DDP. If Adesanya gets emotional and wanders from his team’s plan then he’ll have to find a way to live with the outcome of this fight, one he should technically win.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145

Steve Erceg -205 `vs. Kai Kara-France +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Fourth ranked Erceg leaped up the flyweight rankings after his impressive title opportunity against current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

Erceg is a balanced mixed martial artist, he can grapple a good game as well he has size, length and effective striking ability. Add to that the fact that he provided the current flyweight champion a bona fide scare in their recent title fight, and we can add confidence to his already complete MMA weaponry.

In Erceg we have a fighter that in my judgement may not be defeated for some time in this division should he defeat the elite Kara-France.

Kara-France is an authentic and difficult test for Erceg as Kara-France is deeply experienced, has competed against the elite of the division and has earned finishes via the KO and submission.

Kara France is 3-2 in his last five fights losing his last two straight to former champion Brandon Moreno then a razor close, controversial loss to Amir Abazzi in a fight that most believed Kara-France won.

Kara-France is the older fighter, he has an experience edge over Erceg as well he may be the quicker of the two, but he’ll need to be able to deal with Erceg’s power grappling.

Erceg opened eyes with his battle against Pantoja so he will not sneak up on anyone in this division now but the question we need answered is this: Is Erceg ‘the’ legitimate threat to the flyweight title?

With a dominant performance Saturday night against a mainstay in the division in Kara-France that question must be a resounding yes.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250

Luana Santos -165 vs. Casey O’Neill +145 women’s flyweight (125lbs.)

Brazilian Santos is twenty-four, she’s 3-0 in the UFC but has competed only against a nominal set of UFC mixed martial artists. A judo and BJJ practitioner Santos is aggressive and willing but has yet to share the cage with any legitimate bona fide adversary. That said, she has looked efficient in disposing of who has been put in front of her.

Scotland’s O’Neill who currently trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture enters loser of her last two. Her loss to Jenn Maia was a tight fight and can be understood as she was coming off of an injury into that bout. Her last outing was worrisome as O’Neill looked passive and lethargic in a submission loss to Ariane Lipski, a fight that O’Neill should have won in my judgement.

So, Santos arrives looking to take O’Neill’s 15th ranking in the division away from her while O’Neill is poised to regain control of her ranking with a stellar showing off of that last loss.

O’Neill’s a well-equipped, versatile fighter. She possesses expertise in Muay Thai striking, she’s earned a brown belt in BJJ and her father brought her up in kickboxing.

O’Neill’s two years the older fighter who holds a good deal of experience over Santos and experience against a higher level of competition at that. She’ll be the slightly larger athlete in the cage Saturday so with her diverse mixed martial arts weaponry, and her desperation to reaffirm her standing in the division it’s my belief that she comes out and competes in dominant fashion.

O’Neill opened -150 for this fight and now she’s a decent sized underdog. I prefer to believe that the opening number is a more appropriate depiction of this fight’s outcome than current pricing.

O’Neill +145

I released O’Neill +155 on Monday’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast, so we are seeing a little buy back on her. I’d say jump her now before more advantage in her price evaporated.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV95 Spivak vs. Tybura: Polar snare?

The UFC is back in its APEX center this week for UFC LV95, an eleven-fight card populated with an international array of lesser-known UFC combatants.

Three of the bouts feature 170lbs. (or larger) men fighting in the smaller 25’ diameter APEX octagon while the remaining bouts are competitively matched smaller athletes where there could be a slight advantage to the wrestling/grappling combatant.

Favorites marched to a 12-1 result last week and stand 212-95-8 in 2024 which renders investing in underdogs a risky proposition.

Digital results in 2024 stand 19-16 +7.73u, I am navigating my way through the heavy first half year chalk parade profitably.

Sergei Spivak -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Main Event

This is a rematch of a 202 fight where Polish veteran Tybura, then an experienced 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced a twenty-five-year-old Moldovan neophyte Spivak to the heavyweight division by winning a close decision over the ‘Polar Bear’ who was competing in his third UFC fight.

In that first fight, the betting line on Tybura closed -125. It took Tybura all of his cardio, guile, and experience to win that fight over the younger, more energetic but less experienced Spivak.

Since then, each has won the fights they should have while dropping marquee opportunities to athletes well more gifted than they when it comes to heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.

Flash forward four years and Tybura, who is now even more experienced at thirty-seven stands ready to defend his eighth rank in the division against old foe Spivak who happens to be ranked 9th.

In a small cage, large lumbering men with ill intent will offer excitement in the initial stages of this fight but after six minutes or so this one could turn into a ‘slow dance at the high school prom’.

These two mammoth heavyweights are neither dynamic physically or to be honest athletically. What we’ll witness after the first six to seven minutes will be groping, mauling, and maneuvering within the small cage once the crispness of each fighter’s strikes has dulled.

When this fight is completed, it’s my position that Sergei Spivak will earn a decision victory in a battle that will mean much to both the victor and the defeated but little else to anyone but we investors.

I sense revenge.

Spivak -145

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Lean over.

Jose Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This new co main event will be a tremendous clash of styles as a short sawed-off Mariscal looks to incapacitate the crafty, beguiling submission artist Jackson.

Jackson is the grizzled veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal, he’ll hold a two-inch arm reach advantage to go with his four-inch leg reach edge which in past fights has allowed him to use those thin appendages to clasp onto necks, head, arms, and legs.

Jackson earned victory in his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed vastly improved striking but dropped his two previous bouts to Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo, respectively. He works behind a decent jab, gut wrenching teep kicks and forward pressure when the war goes his way.

In Chepe Mariscal we have a human chain saw.

Chepe is short, squat, forward pressing and as tempered as an anvil. He forges forward with one intent, to attack the opponent with power strikes/kicks that deliver numbing results.

Chepe ‘makes’ fights but in this battle, I believe we’ll see him approach Jackson with initial caution as he must not force his way into a lack of submission awareness while working to engage.

Jackson’s going to have to employ a stiff jab to both neutralize Chape’s inward press as well maintain distance for his elbows and knees to catch the maniacal Mariscal on entry.

Entry is the key to this fight for ultimately ‘Chepe’ wants to be inside lobbing power bombs at Jackson and Jackson may well want Chepe working into him for the submission come far easier with a forceful foe.

Jackson’s length, experience and level of competition faced provide him a great opportunity to turn back Mariscal in this fight but he’ll need to overcome a couple rounds of pure ferocity if he is to do it unless he can find the aggressive strikers neck while the fight is early and the skin dry.

Mariscal’s momentum from three straight wins over bona fide UFC competition combined with his compact frame, extreme aggression, forward pressure, granite chin and profuse power force me to believe that a Chepe, a man that has never been submitted could make this four in a row in the UFC.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125

Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nicolay Verretennikov +285 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Barlow is young, fast, powerful and on the ascent despite the fact that he’s yet to be really tested in the UFC.

Short notice replacement fighter Verretennikov arrives with few credentials except for the fact that he’s won a couple of fights and was available to replace Uros Medic on very short notice.

Verretennikov is a durable, tough methodical finisher who will look to make a name for himself at this late stage of a fighting career.

In this fight we have the big name that needs to look dominant, but will the short notice replacement be game for the upset, a solid showing, or a beating?

Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -210.

This total is based on what Barlow is expected to do. It’s my take that Verretennikov is much more durable than one and a half rounds.

My final releases for this week’s UFC LV95 will be available Friday mid-day PT at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights this week.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Abu Dhabi Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov: Hand Jai

This week the UFC road trips from Manchester, England to Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates to present UFC FN Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov.

This card has thirteen fights slated with preliminary action starting at 9am PT in the states with the main card dropping at noon PT.

As with last week, it is foundational to understand which athletes are of Muslim belief and are from that geographical region and yes, they’ll be using the larger 30’ octagon this week.

Last week we split wagers, but the Belal Muhammad +215 wager pushes this year’s profitability to: 18-16 +6.72u.

Let’s address Abu Dhabi.

Cory Sandhagen +250 against Umar Nurmagomedov -290 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Second ranked Cory Sandhagen is a world class mixed martial artist.

He’s a fleet footed, agile moving striker who uses his physical stature and brilliant angling to tatter opponents with his striking while befuddling them with his evasive strike defense. Sandhagen is an apt wrestler and as a brown belt in BJJ he can more than hold his own rolling on the rug.

Sandhagen has been in against the elite of the division, he’s thirty-two years old so just in his prime, as well he’s three inches taller than his opponent and holds leg and arm reach advantages.

Sandhagen has a positive significant strike ratio and averages better than 1.3 take downs per fifteen minutes. He can dominate fights wherever they transition. Sandhagen is legitimate top three in this division based on everything he has displayed to date.

Nurmagomedov is the tenth ranked bantamweight, yet he comes into this fight an almost -300 favorite.

Despite the experience and physical advantages, he is giving away to Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov has an obtuse strike differential on the feet and impressive grappling/takedown acumen working for him coming into this bout. Umar is the marquee man for this production so understand the crowd is his and they’ll be pulling for their compatriots all night long.

Sandhagen faced a more pedigreed, complete set of adversaries so he is surely prepared for this challenge and in fact asked for Umar.

For Nurmagomedov this is a substantial step up in class, but one he has been asking for, Sandhagen just happened to be one of very few ranked bantamweights willing to clash in the cage with Umar.

This will be a tightly contested fight between two skilled professionals fighting in the large cage in Abu Dhabi.

It’s my judgement that Nurmagomedov’s skills will make this fight appear to be similar in style, competition and outcome to the interim bantamweight title bout Sandhagen and Petr Yan competed in late in 2021. In that fight, Yan was able to use his deft boxing and forward pressure to keep the fight standing while pressing Sandhagen backwards.

Surely the Nurmagomedov camp has scrutinized film of this fight closely in order to glean any/every advantage to help him overcome the experience, movement, and size advantages that Sandhagen carries to the cage.

I’ll want the remainder of the week to watch this line mature.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -195

Shara Magomedov -250 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk +210 Middleweight co main event

Michael O is a polish power puncher who is mean, aggressive, and willing to fight anyone, anywhere. It just so happens that Michael O’s striking/boxing is world class and those willing to compete on the feet with him give him every opportunity to earn victory often in impressive fashion.

However, Michal O has little wrestling/BJJ aptitude and therefore is often found drowning in fights where he is pitted against highly decorated grapplers or world class wrestlers.

In Shara Magomedov we have the epitome of a fighter to fade as he is deliberate on the feet, slow and telegraphing with his strikes yet a solid grappler/wrestler…

The way to make Shara shine is to feed him a singularly dimensioned striker from across the world, which is exactly what the UFC has done.

Once this fight starts Michael O will display a certain willingness to ‘get it on’ and he’ll light Magomedov up on the feet only so long as it takes the Dagestani grappler to decide to maul Michael O all over the mat.

Michael O knows exactly what’s coming and should he be able to keep this on the feet he has every chance to finish Magomedov but if this fight transitions to the mat, then Mikael O will drown.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Mackenzie Dern -120 vs. Lupita Godinez +100 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Godinez is a Mexican striker/wrestler who has deft boxing skill, a granite chin athletic movement and great cardio. Ranked tenth currently, Godinez has steadily risen up the division until her last bout a loss to Virna Jandiroba, an elite who is soon to be tussling for a title fight.

Godinez is exceedingly small in stature, but she is immense when it comes to toughness, belief and durability and she’ll enter this fight looking to get back into the win column by taking her opponent’s seventh ranked position away from her.

Seventh ranked MacKenzie Dern enters this fight a highly disrespected athlete based on my assessment of this line. At open she was -175 which seemed an accurate depiction of this fight.

Soon after opening however Godinez money poured in taking this line well closer to a pick-em.

Godinez has the mind, the heart, the durability, and the willingness to continue to rise up the ranks but she showed in her loss to Jandiroba that elite world class BJJ can cause her issue.

Dern enters this fight as the loser of three of her last four fights but returns to coach Jason Parillo under who Dern’s striking has evolved considerably.

Dern is the highest ranked most decorated BJJ artist of the division. Her championship pedigree from those BJJ tournaments, the level of UFC competition she has faced along with her improved striking together force me to regard Dern as the rightful favorite in this fight, a fight where she deserves to be priced more like she was at the opening bell as opposed to where she is priced currently.

Dern -120

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -238

Dern via submission is also an avenue I would consider once those prices are available.

Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast drops at GambLou.com. Go there to access all of my final releases for this UFC FN Abu Dhabi event.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad: Ring that Belal

Manchester, England is the location for this week’s UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad PPV event.

The fourteen-fight production begins with early prelims Saturday at 3:15pm PT, prelims start at 5pm PT then the main card drops at 7pm PT.

These fights transpire in the wee hours Sunday AM in Jolly Ol’ England so the crowd should be in ‘rare’ form for these bouts, ten of which feature English combatants.

Last week two releases split however, the parlay paid +151 so digital results stand 17-15 +5.58u to date.

Champion Leon Edwards -250 vs. Belal Muhammad +210 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Since these two fought to a no contest in March of 2021 each has performed brilliantly defeating every challenger faced.

For Muhammad, unrelenting, forward pressure wrestling is his fight foundation, and he compliments that with extreme mental toughness, sheer determination an improved striking/licking offense and simple belief.

Since these two first tussled, Muhammad has improved his striking but as opposed to piecing opponents up, he’s looking to strike only long enough to steal the opponent’s soul by forcing them to battle tooth and nail, second by second and inch my inch for a full twenty-five.

What Muhammad believes is that eventually his calculated aggressiveness early in the fight will allow him to eventually clasp a hold of them and choke them out with a submission late in the fight.

Champion Edwards will be defending his belt at home. The southpaw is the younger man, the taller man and he’ll also hold reach advantages over Muhammad.

Edwards has the ability to thrive anywhere a fight evolves be it wrestling, grappling, striking, or kicking. The dexterity of Edwards, his physical advantages and taking into consideration who he has competed against all force me to regard Edwards as the legitimate favorite in this fight.

On the Muhammad side, it’s his focus, his unrelenting nature, and the fact he has been in the cage against Leon already. Muhammad understands exactly what he must do to accomplish this upset and it begins and ends with sucking the cardio out of the champion and usurping his confidence.

What is intriguing is that almost every other English fighter on this slate is being bet aggressively by the betting public however in this main event Edwards price has only moved slightly.

Current lines show respect for Muhammad yet when I handicap the fight it all comes down to whether Muhammad force Edwards into succumbing.

That’s his path to the championship.

At current pricing, I’ll take Muhammad +210 or better*.

*It won’t hurt to be patient and watch this line because a better price may arise.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -215

Champion Tom Aspinall -355 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290 heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Interim

This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight. In it Aspinall closed at a price of -140 over Blaydes after opening as a dead pick-em.

Aspinall was injured early in the fight which began the process of each man earning their way right back to a title shot. It just so happens that the location is Manchester and on Saturday these two settle who will be the next heavyweight champion after Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic then rides off into the sunset.

Blaydes resume is solid, he’s a world class wrestling talent who has developed a better than average power-based strike arsenal into his offense and that striking comes complete with kicks.

Blaydes cardio is a strength, he is unbelievably strong, determined, and confident yet not overly agile or nimble.

Blaydes has competed against heavyweight elite over several years and surely sees this as his best opportunity to be crowned but does that mean he’ll win the fight?

Curtis Blaydes has a single shortcoming, it’s a glaring one as unfortunately, Blaydes has the proverbial glass jaw.

This is not to say he can’t take a punch or battle toe-to-toe but since 2018 his three losses were all to worthy, power based legitimate heavyweight talents who in exchanges were able to blast Blaydes and drop him cheek first onto the floor.

This is the heavyweight division of the UFC and having to try to hide the inability to take one flush on the face is no secret, especially when the athlete is young, driven, confident and does not believe he can be stopped despite past results.

It’s my belief that Blaydes is playing an extremely dangerous game against this Aspinall kid. I’ll also mention that it was Blaydes that called this fight out.

For Aspinall, it’s simple.

He’s smashed each opponent put in front of him since these two first fought. Now he gets the opportunity to correct the blemish on his record that was put there after an injury in a fight that lasted 15 seconds.

Aspinall’s slightly younger than Blaydes, he’ll be taller, more athletic and the faster man in the cage.

Both of these men fight with a full arsenal of skill so it will be interesting to determine where this fight goes and who takes it there.

What Blaydes must execute is enough forward pressure to put Aspinall on the defensive and take this fight right to him. This strategy allows him his best chance to win.

It’s likely that Aspinall’s agility, speed and precision striking will sooner than later force the more methodical Blaydes into attempting to wrestle.

When that transition happens and I believe it will, this fight like an aged Cabernet will begin to open up.

Because if Blaydes is forced to apply wrestling he then leaves himself exposed to Aspinall’s forte’s which is straight knees, power uppercuts and leveraged crosses as he rushes inside to engage.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -166

Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135 Light Heavyweight (205lbs)

These two fighters will each step into the cage on Saturday in must win situations.

Bukauskas won his first two UFC fights before Vitor Petrino finished him in the second round last November.

Bukauskas is a durable, willing striking based fighter with decent wrestling, but his strike defense needs improvement.

Prachnio is the older fighter at thirty-six, but he’s just as desperate for a win as is Bukauskas which enhances the volatility of this fight.

Prachnio is 2-2 in the UFC since 2022, he has competed against worthy competition, and he enters this one off a win.

In my judgement, Prachnio is the more complete striker, he has more innate power than does Bukauskas and he’s been in against a higher degree of pedigreed opponents. For that reason, I ‘ll declare him as a live underdog in a fight that is critical to each man.

Prachnio +135

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week as the fights are in England. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

GambLou

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Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV94 Lemos vs. Jandiroba: Crash and Virna

We forge into the second half of the UFC calendar year with UFC LV94 this week.

Last week favorites went 6-3-3 last week pushing the winning percentage this year for chalk to 67.1%.

When will underdog correction present itself…will an underdog correction arise?

I trust that a corrections will transpire before the end of the year.

When? That’s a question I can’t answer as we have six months.

Digital results stand 16-13 +6.03u after last week’s release of Drew Dober failed against a young, faster more fluent fighter in Jean Silva.

Turning to LV 94, Saturday’s fights begin at 2pm PT with preliminary action and 5 pm PT for the main card. The card features twelve scheduled bouts but only two fights pit athletes weighing 170lbs. and above into the reduced confines of the 25’ APEX octagon.

One final note about late July/August in the UFC. This time of year can be stressful for veteran UFC athletes as they have tremendous pressure on them to perform and win.

These middle tier (talent and paygrade) UFC combatants must win to maintain/enhance their standing in the organization against fellow UFC athletes trying to do the same.

These vets must differentiate themselves from the wave of young, inexpensive, and inexperienced labor flowing into the organization from Dana White’s Contender series.

This presents tremendous pressure, but these fighters know that if they ‘put on a show’ they’ll get paid and recognized.

The focus, desperation, and determination this time of year often makes for reckless forward pressing aggression in bouts which is exactly the business the UFC is in.

I believe we’ll see this week as we saw glimpses of last week, violent displays from athletes who are dealing with this exact pressure to remain relevant and who are fighting literally for their careers.

These fighters’ names are less recognizable to mainstream fight fans exemplified by the fact that this card is populated with six athletes’ arriving from Brazil while another four ship in from South Korea.

Just like last week, the names may be obscure, but the fighting will be fierce.

Virna Jandiroba -140 vs. Amanda Lemos +120 women’s strawweight (115lbs.) main event

Fifth ranked Jandiroba faces third ranked Lemos for an extremely compelling fight in the strawweight division between Brazilian contenders.

Lemos, 3-1 in her last four UFC events, is the slightly longer, taller athlete in the cage. She’s a ferocious striker who puts massive pronunciation behind any of her strikes or spinning techniques. She’s extremely aggressive, fast, and mean as a junk yard dog.

Lemos can finish a fight from any position in the cage and is just as capable of drawing taps from opponents as she is knocking them out of their consciousness. What Lemos sometimes fails to administer to however is her pace and on occasion she can find herself struggling late in bouts.

In Jandiroba we have a more strategic grappler as I handicap her. She’s nowhere near as devastating with her striking arsenal and in fact she’ll only try to stand with Lemos long enough to embrace and cling to her for that’s her initial step to success.

Jandiroba must discover a way to envelop Lemos, leverage her against the fence then maul Lemos to transition this fight to the floor. If she can execute that plan, she is likely to earn victory here because her type of steady, matriculated output allows her to compete for thirty minutes let alone fifteen.

What separates these two for me is who each has been in the octagon with and based on the more stringent competition, I must regard Lemos as the athlete I believe earns victory in the APEX Saturday.

Lemos +120

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -215

Lean over.

Steve Garcia -135 vs. Seung woo Choi + 110 Featherweight (145lbs)

These two fighters are in this position to stir frenzy as each are savage strikers.

Garcia, a southpaw will hold slight height and reach edges while Choi arrives the younger fighter.

Garcia who fights out of Jackson-Wink in Albuquerque is a forward pressing boxer, Muay Thai striker who aggressively seeks engagement at every forward step. His single point of focus is to place himself in front of the opponent in order to stand firm then heavy haymakers. In Garcia’s case, his power shots can be straight piercing jabs, solid hooks and crosses and bludgeoning leg kicks.

His counterpart Choi is also a deft kickboxer/Mauy Thai striker, so his forward pressing attack revolves around his ability to work his way inside via the teep-kick and calf attack then complete his entry with hand striking and elbows.

Choi, 1-3 in his last four enters off of an impressive win despite the fact that he has been susceptible to power punchers prior.

Once the bell for this fight chimes, I see two determined long lethal striking talents meeting in the center of the octagon to careen kicks and elbows off one another’s domes.

Choi’s been in with the more formidable opponent but has not fared well against them nor has he remained highly active recently as this is his first bout in almost a year.

Garcia is an angry, aggressive instigator and though this may represent a slight step up in class of opponent for him, it’s my take that his aggressive nature and certain power advantage will be enough for him to get his hand raised in what I handicap to be an all-out stand-up war.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -195

Miranda Maverick -205 vs. Dione Barbosa +180 women’s flyweight (125lbs)

Maverick is a wrestling-based dynamo who is a forward pressing problem. Fighting out of team Elevation in Colorado the tiny tornado has been training through a full camp for a fight on this date until that fight was altered and the organization found a replacement so Maverick could keep her fight.

From Brazil Barbosa travels to the US for her sophomore UFC battle after winning her debut at UFC 301 in May.

She’s thirty-two and will be the taller fighter in the cage as well, she’ll be the least experienced athlete which compounds the complexity of this matchup for her.

Barbosa travels across the globe on short notice with the challenge of taking on a relentless wresting wiz who has had a full camp to prepare for a fight on this date.

Barbosa’s striking is still relatively pedestrian, and she’ll surely attempt to use Maverick’s aggression against her in order to work her way into some form of clasp then attempt to transition into a submission attempt.

The issue with that Barbosa plan is that Maverick at twenty-seven years of age has a depth of UFC experience against the elite of the division as well she’s faced fighters with a diversity of skill sets.

To say this is a tough ask for Ms. Barbosa is an understatement.

Maverick’s depth of experience, her tenacity and most especially her wrestling chops work together in this fight to earn her a one-sided victory which based on the total in this fight appears to be a decision.

Maverick is a prime parlay piece or a straight up opportunity.

Maverick -205/Garcia -135 Parlay

1 unit invested returns a potential 1.59u

Total in this Maverick fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -345

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops this Friday around noon hour PT. Access it for all of my final UFC LV94 releases at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the animosities.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Denver: Namajunas vs. Cortez: Rose and Crowned

This week the UFC competes in Denver, Colorado where a summer crowd, a larger 30’ cage and fight influencing altitude may all come into play.

Again, this week, the UFC was given little notice of a main event cancellation. They reacted by shuffling athletes to provide a worthy main event for Denver after doing an amazing job inserting relevant combatants with both co-main and main events of UFC 303 two weeks ago.

My respects go out to the UFC matchmakers.

At the halfway point of 2024, UFC favorites are at a multi-year high of 182-82-4 or 67.9% which is usual as favorite percentages usually run in the 62/63% range.

Digital results entering July stand: 16-13; +6.03u; +119 Ave.

The prelims for this week’s fight card are 4pm PT while the main fight card begins at 7pm PT.

This Denver fight card features eleven bouts, four of the fights being held in weight divisions of 170lbs and greater which translates to approximately 10% higher percentage of finishes.

Rose Namajunas -225 vs. Tracy Cortez +185 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event

Cortez steps into this bout on short notice for she was preparing for a short, aggressive wrestling-based athlete next week as opposed to the angular, former title holder and world class athlete in Namajunas.

Cortez, a wrestling-based fighter from Phoenix, AZ jumped at the chance to step up in class to compete against an elite like Namajunas, a fighter that could potentially dominate Cortez with her refined weaponry and experience.

Yet, it’s not out of the question that Cortez is able to ‘wrestle Rose up’ and boomerang a ground control victory into instant notoriety. Surely wrestling will be her approach.

Let’s remember that Cortez has competed at bantamweight and dropped into 125 while Rose did her best work at 115lbs. and is moving up in weight.

This bout being at flyweight may mark ‘two ships passing in the night’ as far as career trajectory is concerned or it could be an announcement by Namajunas that she’s here for this division.

Rose has several factors going for her.

She is an acknowledged world-class talent who has experienced opponent changes not to mention having already competed in five round main event performances numerous times.

Her fighting intelligence is a weapon, and she has fared well since moving to flyweight. Though she does not appear to move as she did when she was a strawweight, Rose competes at home and has no adjustment to make for the drastic elevation change as cardio has never been a question with Namajunas.

Cortez must have an aggressive approach and an unwillingness to compete at distance. She is going to have to overcome much in order to earn success in this fight besides and that’s before dealing with elevation.

The short notice for a main event situation, compounded by the Denver altitude then finally, Namajunas as adversary together spell a challenge for Cortez who may not be quite ready to overcome it all.

Namajunas and Cortez opened as a -110 pick and now Namajunas is -225!

That seems a mis-priced opening number.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -280

Jean Silva -115 vs. Drew Dober -105 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Brazilian Silva is a cold unadulterated finisher of fights.

Since 2021 he has finished each of the ten foe’s he has faced in the first round save for his last bout two weeks ago when he took Charles Jourdain an accomplished UFC featherweight out in the second round.

Prior to that bout Silva missed weight by some two plus pounds and now is assigned to turn around in just a couple of weeks. He now must compete up in weight (probably where Silva belongs anyway) at 155lbs. and against a formidable and well-established fighter in Dober who is also a natural born banger.

Silva steps well up in class of opponent for this tilt and when I consider who Dober has been in with, what he’s faced and the forms of threats he has seen then it becomes only Silva’s early finishing power that I fear with this investment.

Should this fight get into the second round then it could be target practice for Mr. Dober on a gassed and perhaps over matched Jean Silva.

Dober -105

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds over -125

The ‘Bout Business Podcast are my final releases for this week. It’s available Friday Noon PST. Access it only at GambLou.com

 GambLou.com

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Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Hockey, NFL, Profitability, UFC

GambLou.com 2024 NFL Consulting & 2024 Fiscal Business report 1st half 2024.

NFL Consulting; GambLou Fiscal Business report 1st half 2024

July is upon us and I am currently undertaking the detailed and comprehensive process of ingesting Warren Sharp’s NFL manifesto which is a refined and detailed NFL team by team breakdown as only Warren can provide.

By the end of July, I will be prepared to offer season win Investments, Future wagers as well begin preparation for the welcome grind that is the NFL regular season and its playoffs.

Interested parties need simply tap the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this webpage to access detailed information on the specifics of my service. Any interested parties may also hit me up for 2022 and 2023 NFL results for their review and consideration.

As a note my retention rate for the last decade has been almost 100% with NFL clients the and I look forward to serving those investors again in 2024 as well as new individuals looking to earn on the NFL in 2024.

Here is a snapshot of all GambLou.com results through the first half of the 2024 fiscal year.

          UFC:                                       51-61  +5.47u     5% ROI

College World Series:                       14-13   +3.05u   12% ROI

Stanley Cup Tournament                 39-54  <1.55u> -2% ROI*

*This is the first time since 2013 that I have experienced a negative ROI in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. While unfortunate, I report actual results and all clients can count on the integrity of my results as well, the recording of said results. I had a banner 2023 season and my performance in 2024 is simply as the above numbers state.

2024 NHL clients have been offered an incentive to return next year for the Tournament and I will say that any new clients interested in the ’25 Stanley Cup should understand that it’s going to be another decade or more before I lose capitol on this Tournament again!

Interested in reaching out? Lou@GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 303 Pereira vs. Prochazka: Warrior Mentality

UFC 303 takes place this weekend from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas Nevada.

The PPV event has been upgraded by the addition of a top line main event and highly competitive co main event in place of the originally scheduled charade that featured Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler.

Just last week on this column I mentioned the nimble approach the UFC has in maintaining/replacing signature events when for any number of reasons fighters fall out of bouts. This fight card is a classic example of that.

UFC 303 now becomes a more spectacular card with the addition of Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka as the main event and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes as its co main event.

Last week I took advantage of a rare opportunity to invest in an elite pedigreed top three rated fighter facing a rising but unproven commodity when Robert Whittaker violently knocked out Ikram Aliskerov in the first round.

Whittaker’s dominant finish over Aliskerov thrusts my UFC profitability this year to 15-12 +6.03u.

Favorites in the UFC are 67% (171-80-4) in 2024. My digital win percentage of 55.5% coupled with an average win price of +120 provided readers a great advantage, especially considering the high rate of favorites this year.

This week we’ll have a live raucous crowd for UFC 303 in Las Vegas as well the larger 30’ cage will be in use,

Early prelims begin at 3pm PT, preliminary action starts at 5pm PT and the main card kicks off at 7pm PT.

Alex Pereira -135 vs. Jiri Prochazka +120 II Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Championship

This is a rematch of the championship bout waged just last November when Prochazka opened -135 then closed +105 against Pereira.

In that bout the forward pressing Prochazka’s aggression won him the first round before he became overly reckless. He believed he would be able to compete effectively with an elite, pedigreed world class kickboxing specialist who is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in Pereira and was KO’d four minutes into the second round for that confidence.

Since that fight Pereira went on to knock out Jamahal Hill in one round in April’s UFC 300 while Prochazka found himself in a firefight with Alexander Rakic on that same card. He won via finish in the second round in a fight where he absorbed substantial damage but was unwilling to acquiesce and used his will to earn victory.

Each man takes this fight on short notice in order to help the UFC salvage this fight card when McGregor vacated the main event with a bruise on his little toe.

Prochazka is the number one ranked contender to Pereira’s crown and while this will be a thrilling rematch, there is little reason to believe that the result we witnessed in November should be much different now in July.

Many will claim that Prochazka has a grappling advantage in this matchup, but I beg to differ.

Not only is Pereira a black belt in BJJ but he has been under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira for several years and it is my contention that we have not seen Pereira apply grappling into his fights because he has not had to call upon the specialty.

None of his foes have forced him to defend the takedown nor have they pursued him with any grappling advances. Rather, Pereira’s foes have chosen to compete with the world class striking talent at his strength, standing which is dumbfounding in itself.

Jiri’s unorthodox striking style, his low defensive guard, and his ability to unleash power from any appendage surely make him an adversary to respect even fear but Pereira is the more calculated, matriculated, battle tested power striker as well his defensive abilities are more established than those of Prochazka.

In a fight where either man is able to put the other man’s lights out, I’ll lean to Pereira in this competitive bout simply because he has more ways to earn victory, his defense is substantially more advance and he carries the momentum of his victory over Prochazka just seven months ago into this rematch.

Pereira -130

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -175

Lean over.

Diego Lopes -148 vs. Brian Ortega +125 Featherweight co main event

This co main event is a five-round fight.

It will be Lopes’ first foray into five rounds. The fourteenth ranked Lopes has but four UFC bouts of experience. He lost his debut to a ranked Mosvar Evloev then rebounded by finishing each of his last three unranked foes.

Lopes, who has been extremely active since he entered the UFC opened a +130 underdog for this bout. He will be the taller, longer, younger athlete in the cage on Saturday but he’ll be giving away a great deal of cage experience to his adversary. As well his opponent holds well more five round big fight experience than he as well Brian Ortega, Lopes, foe has competed against the elite of the division over the course of the last couple of years.

Lopes would be wise to try to keep this fight standing where his physical traits can be applied. Though he is a black belt in BJJ it is in the grappling and ground rolling where I give Ortega an advantage.

This fight will offer fans striking, grappling, rolling and submission attempts in what I handicap to be a true display of mixed martial arts from both athletes. That said, Ortega was opened the rightful -150 favorite according to my handicapping which I choose to believe is the more appropriate depiction of these men’s fight abilities TODAY.

In a highly competitive battle where the experience, guile and craftiness of Ortega should be the difference over a man in Lopes that is stepping up in competition for this test, I’ll choose to side with the more experienced fighter who opened the favorite and has now become the underdog.

Recency…. It sometimes tells lies.

Total for this fight: 1.5Rds Over -220

Roman Dolidze -145 vs. Anthony Smith +125 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

I’m breaking down big boy fighters today for there are much more violent tendencies when large men fight than when smaller men compete in the cage. This is evidenced by the fact that the finishing rate for light heavyweight athletes in the UFC since 2014 is 60% which is the highest rate of any division in the UFC except for Heavyweight.

Roman Dolidze takes this fight on just days’ notice. He does his training between California and X-Treme Couture in Las Vegas which takes travel out of the complexity of the short notice nature of this battle but understand that Dolidze competes at middleweight or 185 pounds and steps up in weight class against a legitimate, tenth ranked light heavyweight for this fight.

Anthony Smith accepts this challenge on short notice also and now competes against a talent in Dolidze who brings a much different fighting style than did Smith’s original opponent Carlos Ulberg.

Dolidze is less elite on the feet than Ulberg, in fact he is wildly powerful yet lacking pace, precision and quickness. Where Smith’s original opponent Ulberg had no ability to grapple/wrestle Dolidze is a talented grappling threat and may choose to attack Smith with that approach.

Anthony Smith is elite anywhere a fight takes place as he is a gifted grappler/wrestler and is able to strike effectively though any power in his striking is accrued over time for he does not possess one punch, fight ending power.

Once this fight begins it will be Dolidze who will immediately look to engage, press forward, and unleash power striking to try to put Amith on his heels and in a defensive nature.

Smith will look to boomerang Dolidze’s aggression into the opportunity to take him to the floor then force him to expend energy returning to his feet as Smith will be the larger force in the cage.

Smith will use his crafty veteran experience to bewilder Dolidze on the feet until he can manipulate the smaller Georgian fighter onto the mat where he may then reign strikes, elbows and eventually submission attempts upon Dolidze who is tough, durable and willing yet rough around the edges when it comes to the refinement of fighting.

Dolidze’s approach is quite simple, apply forward pressure and utilize his fight ending power to bludgeon any opponent.

The risk Dolidze takes in competing with Smith is that Smith’s seen every style of light heavyweight foe. He will be more than willing to allow Dolidze to front run until he makes a mistake which is when the highly experienced Smith will make him pay for his aggressive nature.

As I break this fight down, I see the violent nature of Dolidze being eventually subdued by the diplomacy of the more well-rounded mixed martial artist Smith. For that reason, I’ll invest in

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120

Lean over.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT and is available at GambLou.com.

GambLou

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Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Riyadh: Kang Bang

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night with a main event that was recently changed as original participant Kamzat Chimaev is quite ill and unable to compete. Robert Whittaker will now face Russian Ikram Aliskerov who was scheduled to fight in the co main event on last week’s APEX event.

*Special note that this fight card kicks off EARLY in the States with preliminary action beginning at 9am PT and the main card starts at Noon PT.

I credit the UFC for their tenacity as they’re deft at dealing with fighter changes, suspensions, injuries, and other oddities as they continue to present viable ten to fourteen fight productions on an almost weekly basis.

Last week a rare favorite release lost as Garret Armfield looked potent early in his fight against Brady Heistand then lost energy as Heistand fought the best two rounds of his career and finally submitted Armfield in the third round.

Digital results this year: 14-12 +4.98u

Let’s look at a couple of the fights from Riyadh.

Robert Whittaker -145 vs. Ikram Aliskerov +124 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Aliskerov, 15-1 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC arrives at this main event with two UFC bouts under his belt. He is shy on UFC experience, steps up in class of opponent substantially and must travel across the world to make this fight. Aliskerov’s sole professional loss was years ago to the aforementioned Chimaev.

In this matchup, he transitions from competing against a Brazilian grappling-based foe who had not competed since late in 2021 to the number three ranked Middleweight and former champion of the division who has faced elite adversaries through his twelve years competing in the UFC.

Compoundng the complexity of this fight, Aliskerov must travel around the globe and once again undertake an aggressive weight cut as he was called off last week’s bout just days prior to the event.

Aliskerov is a remarkably similar opponent to Chimaev for Whittaker.

He employs solid striking behind an aggressive forward pressing wrestling/grappling attack.

For Whittaker, he will have little to alter in this brief time frame to effectively prepare for this new opponent.

The same cannot be said for Aliskerov who gains great exposure from fighting Whittaker but now must step into the octagon and fight an elite, well-rounded finisher in a scheduled five round fight when he was training for three.

Once the bell for round one clangs, I see Aliskerov attempting to press Whittaker backwards and force him to defend Aliskerov’s wrestling.
His goal will be to sap the energy from Whittaker by pressing him and forcing him to defend the wrestling advances.

Whittaker however has been in the cage with every form of diverse fighter in his career and that includes elite wrestling talents. He will be unfazed and prepared for Aliskerov’s aggressive approach, his tactics, and his southpaw stance.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight, a number I regarded as fair in this situation if not giving too much respect to Aliskerov. Immediately money came to Aliskerov, which was stunning to be honest.

Eventually this line dropped to Whittaker -135 appeared at which time buyback (much of it from ‘Bout Business Podcast followers) arrived on the former champion.

Currently the number stands Whittaker -148 which in my judgement is still an extremely attractive price on Whittaker.

I find it difficult to believe that Aliskerov, preparing for a totally different style of athlete than Whittaker and an athlete that must now travel across the globe to compete in a scheduled five round fight when he was prepared for three rounds is appropriately prepared mentally and physically to handle this situation successfully.

What Aliskerov is doing by taking this fight is endearing himself to the UFC for saving this main event in Riyadh. No matter the outcome Saturday, Aliskerov has endeared himself to the UFC as a company player and he will be taken care of by the UFC no matter this fight’s outcome in the form of future opportunities to shine.

Whittaker -145

This fight’s total is 2.5 Rds. Over -160

Lean Over

Sergei Pavlovich -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185 Heavyweight (265lbs) co main event

Riyadh gets a couple of top five ranked Russian heavyweights who oh by the way, have trained together in its co main event.

Fifth ranked and veteran UFC athlete Volkov, a black belt in Tsu Shin Gen, a brown belt in Kyokushin Karate and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has fought in numerous organizations prior to arriving to the UFC.

In UFC competition Volkov has amassed an 11-4 record and has won his last three straight via finish after a loss to Tom Aspinal in March of 2022.

Volkov is 6’7” and prefers to keep his fights standing and badger foes by utilizing his striking skills which are supplemented by the fact that he almost always holds height and reach advantages over opponents.

Volkov can be vulnerable against determined, forceful grappler/wrestlers who are adamant about penetrating Volkov’s distance striking in order to gain pocket position to clasp onto him then try to force the giant against the cage or down to the mat where is size, length and striking are muted.

Enter Sergei Pavlovich, an 18-2 Greco-Roman grappling-based athlete who is ultra-aggressive, explosive, powerful and determined to ground foes, gain top position then reign damage upon them.

Pavlovich won five straight heavyweight battles prior to being dominated in his last fight by Tom Aspinall. In that fight, Pavlovich was exposed as he was unable to cope with Aspinall’s mental toughness, nimble feet, speed, and power.

It is my judgement that this heavyweight outcome will be determined by which man can manipulate the fight to his favor.

Volkov must employ a boxing/kickboxing approach and blister the incoming Pavlovich with elbows, knee’s and strikes.

Pavlovich will work to gain inside position on Volkov. From there he may negate Volkov’s striking/kicking ability and then render his own attack by unleashing furious body and head strikes.

I find Pavlovich to be a typical front running fighter. He will try to finish Volkov early in this fight. However, if he is unable to and this fight transitions into the second round his abundance of physical output compromises his mental toughness as he fatigues and fatigues quickly in that bulky frame.

The Volkov plan revolves around space, distance, and IQ. He must be able to weather those furious first few minutes then use his guile to force Pavlovich to defend and back up where Volkov can utilize his size and length to damage the barrel-chested power striker.

It’s my view that Volkov’s experience, cardio, length, and effective striking can be synchronized to produce a victory but only after surviving what may be a wicked first few minutes of output from Pavlovich.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -130

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop early Friday morning Pacific time as weigh-ins for this card take place Thursday evening 11pm PT.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading!

GambLou.com

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