Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV81 Yusuff vs. Barboza: Super fly

Last week’s UFC Las Vegas 80 proved that in the fight game all athlete’s must be respected. I made the blunder of having perceived that Bobby ‘King’ Green had no chance whatsoever in last week’s main event against Grant Dawson.

Green knocked Dawson cold inside two minutes of the opening round. Lesson learned: respect all fighters at all times because every athlete that steps into the cage deserves respect and does have a chance at winning. That was a rookie mistake on my part.

We move forward with a 16-16 -.85-unit tally into this week’s UFC LV81.

Sudiq Yusuff -160 vs. Edson Barboza +135 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

These are top fifteen ranked athletes which display’s how deeply talented the featherweight division of the UFC is.

Brazilian Barboza now thirty-seven, has earned a Black prajied in Muay Thai, a Black belt in Taekwondo as well a Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s spent a great deal of his career battering lightweight fighters a weight class above this and has now transitioned into an elite level 145’er.

A devastatingly powerful striker with flamboyant tendencies Barboza requires distance to measure opponents then in the blink of an eye, launch a spinning heel into their temple.

Barboza’s been in with the elite of two divisions, he’s remains able to utilize his athleticism and, in this bout, he’ll be the taller, longer, larger fighter.

In Nigerian Yusuff we have an athletic, ascending fighter decorated with a blue belt in BJJ but nowhere near as awarded as his opponent Barboza.

Yusuff is 6-1 in the UFC but his loss in the co main event three fights back to Arnold Allen displayed more aptitude in that decision loss than Yusuff had offered in all of his previous bouts. He’s since executed two sound victories which seemingly have him in optimal position for this return to elite competition and his first main event opportunity.

Once the bell rings for round 1, it’s reasonable to expect Barboza to utilize his size, athleticism and IQ to remain at distance from the more compact power striker and try to accrue damage from outside of Yusuff’s limited striking range.

Yusuff for his part must understand that he has twenty-five minutes here, patience is required. At thirty, he is in his prime while Barboza is seven years older and cutting dynamic amounts of weight to compete in this division.

A Yusuff plan that involves constant, matriculated forward pressure behind a combination based striking attack is his path to success provided his goal is to tire the old warrior early in this bout then take him into the championship rounds for a beating.

Any plan of challenging the more grizzled MMA veteran into a fire fight in the opening minutes may prove to be unwise. Yusuff must be patient early.

Yusuff’s goal is to take Barboza’s place in the rankings and I believe his youth, complimented by his innate quickness and explosiveness will be apparent in the later stages of this fight when Barboza begins to wane and Yusuff begins to fire.

Yusuff -160

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -145

Fight starts Round 4 +100

Jonathan Martinez -115 vs. Adrian Yanez -105 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Two top fifteen ranked Texas athletes will meet Saturday in what may be the most compelling bout on the card.

Martinez, a southpaw has deeper experience and has been in with higher level opponents than has Yanez. His blue belt in BJJ only supplements Martinez’s strength which is based in Muay Thai striking.

Martinez is not flashy, fast, slick or evasive but he is steady, forward pressing, straight with his strikes and numbing with his kicks.

Yanez is the more athletically inclined fighter, he’s the fleeter afoot, he has the faster hands and is overall a more aggressive striker than is Martinez. Yanez owns a black belt in BJJ but I am doubtful we’ll see these two tussle on the floor rather this fight sets up to be a very competitive striking battle.

In this striking battle, It’s the faster more precision striking Yanez that should own advantage early as well as this fight progresses and remains on the feet. Yanez gassed pretty good in his last outing and it’s my judgement that we’ll see a more measured, refined, patient Adrian Yanez and one that knows he must keep this fight standing to win.

I expect Martinez to mix it up more because he can, and he can effectively usurp Yanez’s energy by doing so. It will be interesting to determine which of these two young ascending athletes is able to get their hand raised and be propelled up the rankings of this competitive division.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -135

I don’t believe either of these two warriors has any quit or defeat in them. I believe this dance goes to decision.

Over 2.5 Rds. +115

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is off yet another profitable UFC Saturday. Catch it Friday around Noon PT everywhere podcasts are offered.

Enjoy the Fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

Money Morning UFC accounting; the Sneak-Teep Podcast

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts!

UFC receipts for the Weekend: 4-2 +1.05u

2023 UFC Profitability: 84-83 +23.48 units, 14%ROI, (+123)

We won a unit Saturday but my lack of respect for Bobby Green cost us a unit of profit. Always respect the athletes in UFC fights fight enthusiasts. I did not give Green any chance in the fight. I overvalued Dawson and ignored Green. The fool was me!

We move on.

Look for my weekly UFC opening line report, the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast to commence Tuesday October 31st for the now new Sao Paolo main event featuring Jaiton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV80 Dawson vs. Green: King-pin’ned?

After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s fight night production.

Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.

In 2023 Favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.

Grant Dawson -410 vs. Bobby Green +330 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021 realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green’s a purple belt in BJJ but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.

In standing affairs Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his precision accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to out dazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green who is now thirty-seven can slow down resulting in his potentially get caught (see drew Dober) or simply out wrestled.

Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.

Dawson’s faced world class opponents but in this one he’ll be getting a slickster, a ‘shuck and jiving’ fleet footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.

Dawson will be the stoic forward pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.

In this fight we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up thirty-seven-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson reigning damage from the top.

Dawson is an ascending talent in the division and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.

Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -215

Joe Pyfer -455 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent in mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, power striker who has shown great finishing ability while simultaneously developing his well roundedness. Pyfer’s entering competitive high level grappling tourneys which shows us that he aspires compliment those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.

In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win and the thirty-eight-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.

Once the bell rings for this fight I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight and it’s my judgement that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight where I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, experience together make Alhassan a threat against a worthy young warrior that may earn his PhD. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.

Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -215

Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers slight advantage over his straight up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI 2023. It drops with all my final post weigh-in releases Friday around Noon PST.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL

NFL musing and abusing!

The Chicago Bears organization is owned by a respectable, honorable, ethical family in the McCaskey’s. That said, the foundation of Bear futility and frustration is the responsibility of that same ownership. These are upstanding, fine people but they’re inept at Sports Ownership in the year 2023.

Speaking of Chicago looks like old childhood Chicagoan Sean Peyton is making a return to the windy city this week with his Bronco’s. The Bears may make the Bronco’s look like world beaters!

Freak alert: Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel, Don Parham Jr, Kyle Juszczyk yep, he’s a freak, Micah Parsons, Chris Jones, the Bosa’s… more later.

Mad Scientist alert: Mike McDaniel

Trevor Simien? GTHOH

NFL GOAT turned stand-up comedian: Bill Belichick

How about the 70 burger Miami hung on the Broncos. If you don’t like a team running it up on you….stop them.

Speaking of the Bronco’s did that team quit last week?

The Browns best be beaten early here because in a few games that QB may find his legs and if he does then it’s going to be rough sledding in the AFC North.

A top 50 football player of all time? Derrick Henry without question.

Packers 18- Saints 17 a couple mediocre squads.

Bolts 28- Vikes 24 A couple of gutless squads….no issues with their signal callers though.

I don’t believe in the Jags, Bolts, Falcons or Pack but I want to believe in the Fish, Hawks, Brownies and Commies. I do believe in the Raven but how is it that each year that team is decimated with injury?

Poke’s went to Arizona to get demoralized. Let’s see how Mikey has them prepped off the bounce against the Goat this week.

Niners, Chiefs, Eagles are a level above a handful of others…. In that second tier however are teams that may bust they’re way up!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning Profitability report:

Entering October ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 80-81  +22.58u 14% ROI (+129)

The next fight card is October 7th.

 

 

Look for the ‘Bout Business, Sneak Teep Podcast, a weekly opening line report for UFC cards to begin Tuesday October 31st. Scary!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Lightweight elimination

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s Fight Night offering a main event worthy of PPV status. Two top seven Lightweight contenders headline a fight slate consisting of eleven bouts ranging from Strawweight (115lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.).

Many of the combatants competing on this card may lack headliner status but with one great performance each/any/all could catapult themselves into higher profile bouts.

In the UFC combatants better finish opponents and/or put rear ends in seats (preferably both) in order to be highlighted and inserted into a main event situation.

Last week my release of Canadian Jas Jasudavicious lost which puts results to date 15-15 -0.85u. It’s time for a fourth quarter run!

Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +135 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Polish warrior Gamrot enters this bout sixth ranked in the division and he’s utilized his world class wrestling base as the foundation for his success.

Gamrot’s supplemented his wrestling base with a black belt in BJJ which allows him to apply a forward pressing, heavy pressure grappling attack designed to back opponents up. Forward pressure is foundational to Gamrot success as he relies on grounding opponents then exercising dominance from the mat.

A couple bouts back against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot got caught off guard by a prepared, experienced well-rounded adversary. He next faced 6’3” monster and top ten lightweight power striker Jailin Turner on short notice and was able to earn victory in the most difficult of circumstances. He was focused on getting back into the win column after what he regarded as a learning experience.

Gamrot is a game, focused, experienced and confident athlete entering this bout and it matters little who is put in the cage with him for he’s competed against world class adversaries all possessing diverse, fight ending weaponry.

Sixth ranked Rafael Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with an awareness of wrestling but he’s not near as fluent as is his opponent in that capacity. Rather, Fiziev employs a dynamic Muay Thai striking attack as his fighting base. From there he’s added a blue belt in BJJ to compliment his fighting repertoire.

Fiziev stands as the striking coach at the world-famous ‘Tiger Muay Thai’ gym in Phuket Thailand, so take it from me that his movement, strike defense, strike offense and his tactical abilities are unequaled.

Fiziev enters this fight as Gamrot did against Turner in his last, on the bounce off a loss to Justin Gaethje that in my judgment makes Fiziev extremely dangerous in this spot situationally.

That said, scouring Fiziev’s past opponents leaves me wondering why he has never faced as formidable or at least any formidable wrestling/sambo/grappling based opponents…. Could this have been by design?

Fiziev’s last opponent, Justin Gaethje painted Fiziev’s fence via striking this past March and with the humiliation of that beatdown in the rear view, Fiziev enters this fight with urgency and a singularity of focus.

Fiziev’s striking skills are refined, diverse and more damaging than are Gamrot’s and I must believe it’s Fiziev’s intention to make this a striking competition rather than allowing Gamrot to compete where he is most lethal (and Fiziev untested), against the fence and on the canvas.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch Fiziev address the immediate forward press and wrestling introduction from Gamrot. It will be critical for Gamrot to tax Fiziev and make him effort throughout the full length of the TWENTY-FIVE MINUTE fight for cardio is surely an advantage for Gamrot especially in a grueling, grinding, taxing wrestling competition which Gamrot must make this.

Fiziev is most likely to finish opponents via volume striking/kicking, he must maintain distance in order to launch and land. How he creates and maintains the necessary spacing to strike/kick is foundational to his success in this fight. How he handles Gamrot’s take down offense will also be important to his chances of earning victory.

Fiziev’s youth, his compact physique and how it translates into take down defense, the fact that he’s ‘on the bounce’ seem advantages for him in this bout.

The fact that he has not really competed against a forward pressing vice grip of a wrestling based mixed martial artist has me wondering how well prepared he may be for Gamrot’s twenty-five minutes of wrestling pressure.

For Gamrot, he must systematically break down this deft striker and force him backwards, force him to defend, force him to wrestle and force him to tire. Gamrot owns the sure way to sap the zip from any effective striker with his ability to wrestle for rounds…not minutes.

From a wrestling/grappling and mixed martial arts perspective it’s my belief that Gamrot holds advantage.

For Fiziev, it’s all about keeping this bout on the feet. He must maintain striking distance through movement and counterstriking to discourage Gamrot from rushing into the pocket to engage.

Fiziev’s take down defense will be foundational to his success because he’ll be as awkward and ineffective on the floor as Gamrot will be having to compete solely on the feet.

At the end of the day, I’ll take the wrestling-based athlete as underdog in this situation.

Gamrot +135

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -125

Charles Jourdain -135 vs. Ricardo Ramos +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Ramos from Brazil is well rounded in his fight makeup but specializes is striking and especially spinning kicks and elbows.

Jourdain is a kickboxing specialist at heart and while he sports BJJ skill he prefers to out point opponents with movement, precision strikes and kicks but with little power.

Early in this bout I look for both men to stand and measure the other with striking but as the bout wears on it surely makes sense for Ramos to find a way inside to engage then drag Jourdain down to the mat where Ramos is dangerous and Jourdain is somewhat exposed.

Lean to Ramos

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Over -130

Lean to the over

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast has earned a net 22.80 units in 2023 showing 15% ROI. The podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC card. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, Uncategorized

UFC Money Morning report: blanked!

GambLou weekly UFC profitability took a step backwards last week as I realized a 0-4 -3.5unit evening Saturday in the UFC.

While it’s never easy to report loss, it’s part of the landscape of running a successful business and besides I’ve had so few losing nights thus year that this is easy to account for. I did after all use only a half unit on Christo Giagos which saved us a half a unit.

Rarely do I sweep a UFC board and rarely will I get blanked, each has occurred in the last four weeks which is funny. I would expect it to be some time before wither happen again… I presume.

NFL is now 2 weeks into the season so I’ll begin to post mid-week observations and rants pertaining to NFL starting this week.

UFC 2023: 77-78 +22.80u 15%ROI (+130)

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Noche Grasso vs. Shechenko: Bulletproof!

Never in my wildest imaginations did I believe that Sean Strickland would actually execute the proper plan of attack to clasp the middleweight title away from former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland with his one-sided decision win has left the MMA community dumbfounded heading into this week’s card.

Now this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas comes ‘Noche UFC’ an event described by the UFC as, “The UFC brings an action-packed card to T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day for the first time ever. It has become a great tradition in combat sports to hold big fights on September 16th, and this year we’re honoring our UFC fans and fighters from Mexican communities with an inaugural Noche UFC.”

On this fight card are six true Mexican fighters and another three of Mexican heritage now residing in the US. They’ll take on other athletes from around the globe in this event highlighted by current Mexican flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s first defense which is a rematch with former champion Valentina Shevchenko who Grasso submitted to earn the title this past March.

Last week we realized great displeasure by wagering on the ‘Pleasure man’ Anton Turkalj. We step back in profitability with the goal of enhancing that bottom line with this week’s release.

Champion Alexa Grasso +140 vs. Valentina Schevchenko -165 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

This line opened months ago Schevchenko -225. Immediately after release I advised ‘Bout Business Podcast listeners to attack that Grasso +195 price. As we can see that price is long gone and the current number depicts a more realistic price on this bout in my judgement.

Shevchenko’s shown an ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life a little bit.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what I was taught by ol’ Angelo Dundee many years ago and I have found this to be so true of fighters.

Dundee would warn of the paradox in this manner; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s they’ve longed for from their fighting success, it’s that notoriety, money and distraction coming from the public accolades that end up diluting the fighter’s skills. Yes, success corrodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to overcome any obstacle. However, she’s now thirty-five and has been competing with absolutely every world class adversary the organization put in front of her since 2015.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight it will be 70% of her pride yearning to recapture that title substantiated with 30% grit, determination and nasty.

For Grasso, she’s has months to reprepare for this second challenge. The old boxing saying that fighters become 35% better once they clasp the championship is not inaccurate in my judgement.

In March Grasso utilized speed, timing and her specific plan for success which ended up being enough to earn her the title. So now Grasso and camp know they had the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this tussle, how will they adjust if at all?

Different in this fight is the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion but the crowd will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts all yearning to see their fighter dominate. So yes, there is pressure on Grasso entering this rematch.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire but she’ll realize too that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully, Valentina! In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know immediately that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title.

Grasso +195 was surely a wrong price. Grasso +150 is more in line. It’s difficult for me to recommend Grasso +150 when I already hold her +195 so I’ll look to a bout other than tis main event to pad 2023 profitability.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -155

This price indicates a potentially close, competitive decision

Tracy Cortez -125 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious +105 women’s flyweight

Tracy Cortez comes from a family of wrestlers. Her forward pressure, clinch attack and cardio are what one would expect from a top end grinding wrestler.

Cortez has faced decent UFC caliber foes and she’s shown an ability to press the pace and utilize her wrestling in the cage. The issue here however is that this is mixed martial arts competition and Cortez, though apt as a pressure wrestler, is lacking with her striking and strike evasion which offers opponents a singularly versed opponent.

Jasmine enters this fight the larger lady, the older fighter and the athlete with deeper experience. She’s also been in the cage with a higher caliber set of opponents. Jasmine is coming off an impressive victory over another forward pressing wrestling- based athlete in Miranda Maverick, one I handicap to be at or above the ability of Ms. Cortez. The Maverick bout could not have come at a better time for Jasmine for it is a terrific precursor to Ms. Cortez as both are very similar in fighting style.

Jasmine’s experience, her size, the absolute bad intention she carries and above all her effective power striking will be the difference in this fight as she’s seen fighters similarly equipped as Cortez. Meanwhile Jasmine represents a substantial step up in class for Cortez and one that will do all she can to finish this fight.

The contention here is that Jasudavicious should be the athlete with the minus next to her name so I find it advantageous to invest in Jasudavicious +105.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -350

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC fight card. This week the Pod will be available around 1pm PT!

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Uncategorized

I believe in Deion Sanders

It’s been many years since I handicapped college football however, I do pay enough attention to know that Arizona University is on its way to national standing, I believe the SEC is unmatched in level of player and level of play and I believe the rich will continue to get richer in the CFB sphere.

Now with that said, no one other than Deion could come into the quagmire of status quo college football and turn the world on it’s head like Sanders did, is doing and will continue to do.

Deion came to Colorado to create a feeder program for the NFL and in months he’s created the foothold to become THE MODEL for farm system NFL players.

Those who continue to be stubborn and find fault in Colorado’s opponents, approach or head coach they’d better understand that what we saw last Saturday was not An Apex for Colorado’s football team but a floor.

I spent time in football huddles from 1966 to 1993 and I fully, comprehensively, and concretely believe in Deion, his aptitude as a coach and the success that will immediately come his way.

Sanders is turning CFB on its head and those that are stubborn and refuse to believe come mostly from the ‘never been in a huddle before’ crowd.

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: UFC sweep!

This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!

‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.

2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)

It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!

My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.

Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!