Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Paris Gane vs. Spivak: French toast?

This week the UFC returns to Paris, France after an outstanding fight card from Singapore last week where favorites rolled to another big night realizing a 10-3 result.

Nine athletes on this fight slate are making debuts or in the case of Rhys McKee debuting in his second stint in the UFC so there are but a handful actionable bouts in my judgement. I’ll choose to use the fights populated with debutants as ‘due diligence’ bouts where I collect the data for future consideration.

Favorite’s this year in the UFC stand 213-104-14 or 64.3%.

Michal Oleksiejczuk +100 did in fact weather a furious first few minutes from his opponent last Saturday before KO’ing the brute in the first round. Michal O pushes profitability for the year back into the black!

14-13 +0.15 for 2023

Cyril Gane -160 vs. Sergey Spivak +140 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Gane, ranked number two in the heavyweight rankings has been impressive since hitting the heavyweight scene in 2019. He ran into Jon Jones this past March and was quickly shown that to compete against the elite in the UFC a fighter must be complete physically and mentally.

In his evolution Gane has shown aptitude with his athleticism, skill and stand-up ability and in this bout, we’ll witness how much growth there has been in his ability to defend take downs then once down, display an ability to get back up to his feet for this is the fulcrum to this fight!

A fighter with an elite kick boxing base, Gane is a unique specimen for he moves like a middleweight yet possesses the striking power of a heavyweight delivered with precision, speed, ferocity and intent.

Gane relies on deft footwork, evasive defense and precision volume striking often set up by the employment of damaging kicks to effectively maim opponents. From there compromised foes immobility further allows the nimbler Gane to close in for the stoppage.

A professional fighter since 2018, Gane’s 8-2 in the UFC and finds himself with a great opportunity in this bout to show the fight community that he’s addressed his lack of grappling defense off the heels of that magnificent gag against Jones.

In Spivak, Gane gets a similarly sized wrestling/grappling versed opponent who does have power in his hands but is not a natural striker. Winner of his last three straight and seven of his last eight, Spivak arrives with great momentum and a specific plan laid out by Jon Jones on how to defeat Gane.

Spivak will be focused on pressuring Gane, trying to negate his space, press him backwards then clasp onto him. The floor is ultimately where Spivak wants to take Gane for Spivak’s size and wrestling/grappling aptitude will provide him great advantage there.

Where Gane is quick, precise, athletic and fluid Spivak is premeditated, telegraphing and awkward on the feet. Standing and at distance is the last place Spivak can allow this fight to be contested for he needs to make this a slow dance at the high school prom or he’ll be shredded.

By Grappling Spivak can usurp some of the speed, zip and flash from Gane and in fact this is exactly his path to victory. He must find a way to wear the Frenchman down in order to make him more susceptible to Spivak’s grappling.

Once this fight begins it’s my belief that Gane’s athleticism, speed and focus off that loss will be on display only as long as it takes for Spivak to embrace him.

What remains to be seen is if Gane’s ability to defend a formidable take down attempt has been addressed since the Jones fight and any decent MMA trainer will tell you that the answer to that is a simple ‘NO’.

Spivak, though no Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is a formidable grappler whose immediate fight future lies in his ability to ground Gane in this bout. Will he be able to do so?

Gane opened -215 for this fight so there’s early Spivak interest in the market. Gane is currently priced -165 looks inviting but I’m wary of Spivak in this spot despite the fact that this fight in in Gane’s backyard.

I’ll await props for this bout but must say that this is no layup for Gane.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -260

Points: not available yet

Benoit St. Denis -155 vs. Thiago Moises +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

The fact that neither of these killers is ranked in the UFC’s Lightweight top fifteen seems to be proof that the lightweight division in the UFC is populated with nothing but world class talent.

In Brazilian Moises we get an elite grappler who is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Eight of Moises seventeen professional wins have come via submission, three by KO.

Moises employs his stand-up game to set up his grappling for on the feet he realizes a negative strike differential (-1.5 significant strikes per minute) allowing 3.9 significant strikes per minute while connecting with only 2.4 significant strikes per minute.

Moises has had success against the middle tier of the division but when he steps into competition with top fifteen competition he has faltered. Moises enters this bout off two straight victories and it’s probable that the winner of this battle cracks into that top fifteen of the division.

In southpaw St. Denis we get an athlete that grew up with a father who was a judo instructor and if that was not enough this is a man is a former Navy Seal in the French military so not only can this man impose himself physically, mentally he cannot be overtaken.

St. Denis is a black belt in Judo and a brown belt in BJJ, he strikes with more volume/power than does his opponent but he also realizes a negative significant strike differential of -1.9 significant strikes per minute.

St. Denis is huge for the division and he’ll be much the larger man in the cage Saturday. He holds eleven professional victories of which nine have come via submission. Further, St. Denis has had success against Brazilian athletes with BJJ backgrounds though in this matchup it’s reasonable to believe that St. Denis will need to keep this fight standing.

Once this fight begins it will be Moises quickness and athleticism in competition against the forward pressure and striking aggression of St. Denis. On the feet St. Denis will need to crowd Moises press him against the cage and fight the Brazilian in close until he can soften him up and then attempt to take him out.

For Moises he’ll want to maintain distance in order to kick and counter the aggressive Frenchman on his way into engage for Moises must get this bout to the mat in order to realize success in my judgement.

Moises is durable, crafty and savvy and has only been submitted against current champion Makhachev. Each man will have difficulty finishing the other but the St. Denis size, ferocity and high-pressure pace coupled with a seasoned French crowd are the difference in this fight for me.

This bout opened St. Denis -120 and on Sunday I released St. Denis -125 with the feeling that this price would be higher by the time I submitted this column. St. Denis is currently -145 and rising…

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -135 after opening -155.

Points: not available yet

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast: +20.38u 14% ROI (+128) on the year.

This week the Podcast drops midday Friday as the start time for the fights Saturday is 9am PT

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning: Accounting for profit

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast results ran 3-3 for a net loss of 0.31u last week however….rather than having won a small amount by using a full unit wager on Anthony Smith, we take the small loss knowing we hold Manon Fiorot .5u for 1.08 units in hand heading into this week’s fight card from Paris.

Remember fight enthusiasts, it’s a marathon not a sprint! Fiorot is currently a -190 favorite.

‘Bout Business Season profitability: 72-72 +20.38u 14% ROI  (+128)

Wednesday I’ll post my early look into the Paris, France fight card.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Singapore: Holloway vs. Jung: Fight Zombie

UFC 292 shook the rafters in Boston’s TD Garden when after favorites steamrolled to a 9-1 start, they were thwarted by new champion Sean O’Malley’s counter right hand that was lighting fast, pinpoint precise and landed flush dropping Aljamain Sterling to his teeth. The finish came soon afterward for the new champion.

O’Malley now becomes the superstar the UFC and he have been envisioning. It remains to be determined if the UFC forces their new cash cow to perform against elite talent or with potentially handpicked opponents that may prove less threatening to the more singularly dimensioned O’Malley.

This week the Organization travels to Singapore for a production that will begin with preliminary action at 2am PST Saturday with main card dropping at 5am PT so prepare for early morning mauling from Singapore!

This fight card features many eastern hemisphere fighters many of which are making their debuts or are still very new into the UFC.  The card overall offers a handful of brilliant matchups.

This card excites me because handicapping diverse fighting skills coupled with athletes from diverse countries of origin is one of the most fascinating aspect of betting MMA bouts in my judgement.

We have a South Korea vs. Holland opening fight, a Dominican against a Pole heavyweight tussle as well as a Japan vs. a Mexico bantamweight bout set of the main card.

Don’t sleep on this fight card people!

UFC profitability to date: 13-13 -0.85u

Max Holloway -850 vs. Sung Yung Chan aka Korean Zombie +550 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Matchmaking for this main event had to be difficult for the UFC as they’re keenly focused on electrifying crowds with local/regional matchups often times placing selected regional talent into somewhat favorable positions for the benefit of fans.

In Singapore we get an eastern hemisphere favorite in the Zombie, currently ranked tenth in the division. More importantly the thirty-six-year-old Jung is from South Korea respectfully called for this fight and enters a large underdog with the opportunity to try to electrify the crowd as young O’Malley did last week.

Jung is decorated like a Christmas tree, he’s a 3rd dan black belt in Hapkido, a 2nd dan black belt in Taekwondo, a Black belt in Judo as well he holds a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu so he’s surely capable on his best night to find any opponent with volume, power and constancy.

Further his reputation in the region is unmatched based on the ferocity of his fight outcomes. Jung has Eight Performance of the Night bonuses, the fastest knockout in Featherweight history, he accomplished the first Twister in UFC history and has been a two-time title challenger.

In Holloway we have one of the greatest featherweight talents of all time, it just so happens that he and Alexander Volkanovski had to dwell in the same era.

Max does not have the listed decorations in various mixed martial arts specialties as does his opponent for he is simply a brown belt in BJJ. However, Holloway will be the younger man in the cage by better than five years, he’s 4” taller, holds an arm reach advantage of 3”, 4” with legs so physical and statistical advantage all favor Holloway.

Holloway came up fighting in the streets of Hawaii which by the way is no easy undertaking as Hawaiian culture has fighting in its DNA.  Holloway’s fighting skills may not be described by the awards, belts or degrees he has earned rather it can be described by his success against the world class competition he’s faced.

Holloway is a professor of fight tactics. He’s a deft boxer who knows how to shred opponents with his piston like jab which of course set’s up his combination attack. He applies ridiculous forward pressure to corner opponents then unleash slicing elbows, crushing knees and numbing kicks.

Holloway’s length, experience and aggressive combination striking have been what’s differentiated him from all but champion Volkanovski and it’s what’s differentiating him in this fight from Jung.

At thirty-one Holloway is out to prove that he has plenty of career remaining in him. He’s is a fighter from the American islands who will draw anywhere he fights.

The passionate fight fans in attendance will all be wanting to see their man, ‘the Zombie’ try to do to Holloway what only Volkanovski’s been able to do to him as a featherweight which seems a tall order from this perspective.

Holloway opened -950 for this fight and the total is set at 2.5Rds Over -225.

Points: Holloway -5.5 -350

Chidi Njokuani -120 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuc +100 Middleweight (185lbs.)

I’m glad I am writing this and not pronouncing it!

In this fight we have the American Njokuani who is a hulking 6’3”, ill-intentioned power striker. Not only will he be the larger man in the cage Saturday he’ll also hold a 6” reach advantage in what appears to be a classic stand up fight.

Michael O is a ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’ fighter because he’s a somewhat of squirrely looking fellow but the experienced Polish striker competed in his early career at light heavyweight where he displayed focus, will and the ability to absorb heavy strikes.

At 205lbs, Michael O was very undersized but he fought like a wolverine cornered while competing against those larger fighters. Mikeal O has immense power in his hands, he’s willing to set up in the pocket and exchange Sunday shots, and he sports a granite beard.

Once the bell for round one rings Michael O will need to hunt cautiously early and be aware that his best chance to win is to get Chidi into the second round. Njokuani’s power is profuse, his pressure is constant and he knows no caution so challenging him early in a firefight is unwise.

Positive news for Michael O is that he’s already faced threats that hulked over him so this middleweight monster is no larger than the light heavies Michael O has been in with already.

Njokuani’s size and ferocity of fight will be nothing new to Michael O in fact I believe it motivates him to bring his best performance and that’s exactly what I believe he offers us Saturday.

Weather that early firestorm Michael!

Michael Oleksiejczuk +100

Total in this fight: 2.5 Under -245 (opened -215) so the wise guys feel like someone may be going to sleep here.

Points:

This week GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday morning because of the early Saturday AM start time of the bouts.

‘Bout Business also holds Blanchfield +114 as leg 2 incoming parlay!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning: Weekly profitability report

Accounting for every wager, their result and conducting detailed accounting is foundational if one is going to compete with bookmakers for profitability.

For decades I have published results each Monday in my ‘Money Morning’ column.

To date few, very few handicappers record their results let alone publish them which should make any onlooker wary as to whether said handicapper is selling ‘picks’ for their own self-interest as most do or if they are trying to emulate my model which is based solely on modern business practices.

Specifically, all I have done for the last decade plus is deliver profitability to followers. In the future, that’s what I’ll continue to do!

Let’s account:

Favorites in the UFC including last week’s 9-2 favorite result stand: 203-101-14 or 63.8%

Last week in the UFC I realized a 3-3 +1.06u result.

To date in 2023 ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 69-69 +20.64u 15% ROI (+130)

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Drowned Sugar?

UFC 292 takes place this week from Boston, MA. The thirteen-bout fight card is rife with competitive matchups and it features two, five round world championship title bouts.

Last week favorites realized a 9-4 result making favorites on the year: 194-99-14 or 63% which is about average for a typical UFC year. Last year’s 67.5% favorite result appears to be just an outlier.

Aljamain Sterling -260 vs. Sean O’Malley +210 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

There are layers to this bout but whittled down to its most common denominator what we have here in Sterling is an elite all world grappler/wrestler who is an effective striker, he’s massive for the division and with his size comes incredible strength supplemented by cardio that is seemingly unending.

Sterling’s one of the most lethal bantamweight fighters in UFC history. He’s been in with the absolute elite of the division and has cleaned them all, he’s extremely intelligent, focused and he arrives swelling with confidence based on who he has defeated and who he is facing Saturday.

In second ranked O’Malley we have a long, tall athlete who effectively controls space/distance by utilizing his athleticism and fluidity of movement. O’Malley will be the younger, longer, quicker athlete in the cage Saturday.

Once this fight begins O’Malley’s unique fighting style will be on display. He’ll flow and parry to create striking angles. His use of unorthodox timing to try to stun, surprise and bewilder the incoming Sterling with straight strikes and kicks.

O’Malley’s a more singularly versed mixed martial artist despite the fact that he’s trained extensively on his take down defense and ability to get back to his feet.

O’Malley acknowledges openly that his priority in this bout is to absolutely NOT allow Sterling to clasp onto him, press him against the fence and by all means O’Malley is aware that he must not allow Sterling to drag this fight to the canvas.

If and when he does find himself there, he must be able to return to his feet or this will be a short night.

For Sterling, he will want to take this fight right to O’Malley and in measured, steady, aggressive fashion muscle him backwards and force him to exert his energy defending and evading as opposed to flowing and striking.

The Sterling camp believes that as the fight wears on, O’Malley, who has never been five full rounds and in fact has had cardio issues late in three round bouts, will begin to wane and as he does, Sterling will begin to press more.

Sterling’s focus is to systematically usurp the energy from O’Malley then in the late third or championship rounds when the kid is gassed and gored, find a way to take his back then choke him into unconsciousness.

O’Malley’s camp realizes (rightfully so) that Sterling cuts massive amounts of weight to make 135lbs. Further, they in conjunction with the UFC cooked up the idea that this fight should take place immediately on the heels of Sterling’s dominant title defense against Henry Cejudo in June!

Sterling and camp feel pressured into the very quick turn around here and have stated that the result of this will be that he’ll take it out on O’Malley who Sterling states is in this position only because of his ‘Dana privilege’.

Privileged or not, these two tussle Saturday and without question the weigh-ins are of ultra-importance in this one so I’ll hold off until later this week to make any position on this bout.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -165

Points: Sterling -5.5 -130

Zhang Weili -310 vs. Amanda Lemos +250 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.) title

Champion Zhang won the title back in her last fight against then champion Carla Esparza. In this her second stint as champion it’s my belief that it will take something quite impressive to defeat her.

Zhang may be the most complete, fully equipped mixed martial artist in the organization. She’s intelligent, a workaholic who lives in the gym. She’s strong as an ox, fast as lightning and tough as a six-dollar steak.

In Brazilian Lemos we have an effective power striker who is forward pressing, aggressive and offensive. Eleven of her thirteen wins have been via the finish because she’ able to keep fights standing. Her take down defense is formidable based on the incredible power in her torso and legs. This allows Lemos to keep fights on the feet where her ferocity, might and power translate into advantage, finishing advantage.

When this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch how Zhang decides to usurp some of the zip from Lemos. Does she do that by counter striking, does she try to wrestle her up?

Either way it’s my judgement that Lemos has about six and a half to seven minutes of fight ending threat in her and it’s in these first minutes that Zhang must be wary and respect.

For Zhang, she needs to ensure that she takes this bout into the second round and beyond for even Zhang with her granite jaw has been slept and a fresh firing Lemos can put anyone in the division’s lights out with one elbow, kick or fist.

Zhang’s ability to use her fight intelligence, employ her full fight arsenal supplemented by her extreme athleticism must be used together to force Lemos to effort early in this fight so that Zhang can go offensive on the Brazilian finisher later as she begins to slow.

Provided Zhang does not run into something early I handicap this bout to be styled much to her favor and I look for Zhang to eventually finish the brazen Brazilian brute.

Zhang via finish -120 (DraftKings)

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Under -175 after opening -140

Points: Zhang -5.5 -195

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday AM across all pod platforms. My final UFC 292 releases can be accessed there!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: Accounting for profitability

Last week in the UFC Favorites ran 9-4 putting them at 194-99-14 this year or 63%.

GambLou ‘Bout Business results after a modest return last week of just under one unit stands:

66-66 +17.48u 13% ROI (+127)

This week UFC 292 comes live from Boston, MA Saturday 3:30pm PST. I’ll have complete breakdowns up Friday morning on the ‘Bout Business Podcast!

Tune up the Tune in!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV78 Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Batalha das lendas Brasileiras

This week’s Fight Night will be the last event from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas for a few weeks as the organization readies itself for a worldwide tour over the course of the next month.

Meanwhile on this slate we have twelve scheduled matchups featuring athletes from 115lbs to the 265lb heavyweights with the main event a welterweight bout between two decorated Brazilian mixed martial artists.

Favorites in the UFC are realizing a 63% success rate thus far in 2023 and we fought ourselves back into profitability last week with the main event wager of Over 3.5Rds. -140 as Sandhagen and Font went to decision.

2023 profitability: 13-14 + 0.15u

Rafael Dos Anjos -120 vs. Vicente Luque +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

RDA is the ninth ranked lightweight (155lbs.) in the organization but in this scrap, he’s stepping up in weight class to face his countryman Luque.

RDA, 32-14 has a wealth of fight experience in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. He’s a well versed mixed martial artist as witnessed by the fact that he owns a fourth-degree black belt in BJJ as well he’s a Black prajied in Muay Thai.

RDA’s faced elite competition throughout his career and although he is thirty-eight years old, he can still perform and compete with world class mixed marital artists.

Last December RDA competing at welterweight, a division he is 5-4 in looked crisp in taking ‘Bam Bam’ Barbarena down to the mat for a submission win in the second round. He looked like the faster, quicker more skilled fighter that night but he faces an opponent well more dangerous than the singularly dimensioned Barbarena come this weekend.

Fellow Brazilian Vicente Luque is a cold finisher decorated with his own black belt in BJJ and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva. Ranked tenth in the welterweight division he arrives the legitimately sized welterweight, focused, driven and desperate after losing his last two bouts.

Luque’s seven years the younger man, he’s a couple inches taller and he’ll hold a 5” reach advantage in this bout on top of that, thirteen of Luque’s fourteen UFC wins have been via the finish!

Luque, is the far more dangerous, lethal striker between these men so it’s my belief that RDA will look to force this fight into the clinch, then pressed against the cage. At that point RDA must do all he can to take Luque to the mat where he may gain top position and performs his most effective work.

Material to this handicap is the fact that Luque enters this bout after being diagnosed with ‘brain hemorrhaging’ as a result of his last bout against Goeff Neal.

What we have been told is that Luque’s had the appropriate time off and is ‘medically cleared’ to compete per the rules mandated by the UFC which I believe must be relatively stringent given their exposure to litigation.

So, an important aspect when considering any wager on this fight is the physical, mental and emotional condition Luque hauls with him into this bout. This is something I’ll be looking closely at/for in the fighter interviews Wednesday.

On his game Luque is an aggressive, forward pressing, ’walk his opponent down’ buzzsaw of a power striker and that’s what I expect him to present once the bell for round one rings as he’s certain to yearn to get ack into the win column to improve upon his already top ten ranking and keep his potential title hopes alive.

Luque’s size, the fact he’s the legitimate welterweight power striker and the intense forward pressure he delivers into his bouts all signify advantage in this bout provided there are no lingering effects from that last bout.

For RDA I believe his tactics must revolve around forcing the proud, seasoned warrior into a mistake that may lead to RDA transferring this fight to the floor.  It’s from top position where RDA is most dangerous and it’s there where he stands the best chance at upsetting Vicente Luque.

At the end of the day, I lean to Luque.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145

Hakeem Dawodu -220 vs. Cub Swanson +190 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main event

Swanson is a grizzled UFC veteran with a professional record of 28-13.

The thirty-nine-year-old warrior is a black belt in BJJ and has competed in three descending weight divisions during his storied career, lightweight (155lbs) then featherweight (145lbs) and in his last bout, bantamweight (135lbs).

What’s worthy of mention is that after getting decisively finished in his last outing at bantamweight last fall Swanson is returning to featherweight in a change that at Cub’s age seems a move of desperation.

A precision striker with a well-rounded fight arsenal Swanson has shown the ability to out skill, out strategize and out execute lower-level UFC talent but he struggles mightily with competition that is top twenty worthy.

Dawodu, much like his foe Swanson, comes from the mean streets where his outward aggression was steering him straight to the ‘Graybar hotel’.

At fourteen though Dawodu was exposed to Muay Thai fighting as a release for his deep seeded anger and he excelled in the gym realizing a 42-5 record as an amateur then a 6-0 tally as a professional.

In this bout Dawodu will be the younger man by six years as well the thicker, larger, more explosive athlete who will hold a 3” reach advantage. He’ll look to use his footwork and length to maintain distance so he can club Cub on his way inside to engage.

Cub meanwhile may want to mute Dawodu’s power by clasping, clinching, pressing against the fence and wrestling. Swanson’s ability to force the younger more violent man to expend energy early and allow Dawodu’s arms to swell and slow seem the more logical approach to him getting his hand raised.

Dawodu appears to be in a favorable spot in this, a fight that can showcase his youth, speed, power and aggression.

Dawodu opened -325 for this bout which was hammered down to the current price of Dawodu -220.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -145

This week’s release:

Luque/RDA Over 2.5Rds. -205 to Dawodu -220; parlay +114

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC card. Get it across all podcast platforms!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability

Money Morning: Profitability report

UFC receipts for the weekend amount to a 3-2 result for a return of +2.59 units.

Yearly UFC profits are +16.63 units for a 13%ROI and an average win of +122.

We’re rapidly approaching the NFL season, to date I have released one season win total and there will be more coming as we approach the beginning of the regular season.

Serious NFL investors are urged to check my ‘NFL consulting’ page to determine if my NFL service may be a fit as a supplement for your own profitable approach to the NFL season.

I have some really cool news surfacing soon. Stay tuned right here for a strong independent voice to Profitable Sports Gaming!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Nashville Sandhagen vs. Font: Rocky chop!

Justin Gaethje captured the UFC’s BMF title with last week’s dynamic head kick knockout of Justin Poirier.

Favorites ran 7-3-1 on the card and are realizing a 62.7%-win rate in 2023 down a full 5% from last year’s obtuse 67 plus percent!

My release of Justin Poirier ITD +130 leaves me on the wrong end of profitability for the first time since I began writing these columns some five years ago as results are 12-14 <.85u>.

A major correction is on the way.

Cory Sandhagen -265 vs. Rob Font +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked Font steps into this fight on short notice which is as impressive for him as it is that Sandhagen had accepted this bout originally with Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov, a Russian vice grip fell out of the fight due to injury so now Sandhagen faces a stylistically different athlete in Font.

With Font we have a fighter who arrives off of presenting young up and coming bantam Adrien Yanez with his PhD. in MMA as Font dominated the younger man in his last outing.

Font’s a slick boxer with a piston jab, good footwork and extreme durability, a brown belt in BJJ compliments his fight arsenal.

At thirty-six, on short notice and giving up three inches of height in this bout Font will have his work cut out for him Saturday.

Third ranked Sandhagen, a psychology major from Boulder is an accomplished kickboxer with a brown belt in BJJ. He prepares for a different challenge in striker Font than grappler Nurmagomedov but Sandhagen’s should familiar with elite striking adversaries as he’s tussled with the likes of Champion Aljo Sterling, Petr Yan, Song Yadong and other elite talent at the weight class.

Once this bout begins, I look for Sandhagen’s high fight IQ, his extremely well-rounded fight arsenal complete with footwork and cardio to simply be a little too much for a tough, grinding, unrelenting forward pressure striker like Font.

This fight as I handicap it revolves around cardio, striking volume and efficient movement. These are all Sandhagen assets and this is where he holds the advantages.

Sandhagen opened -165 and has shot up in price making playing the props necessary in order to derive value from this fight.

Total in the fight: 4.5Rds. Under -120

Over 3.5 Rds -140 (alternate total DraftKings)

I believe this bout has decision written all over it.

Kyler Phillips -195 vs. Raoni Barcelos +165 bantamweight (135lbs.)

Barcelos is an athletic Braznlian athlete with black belt in BJJ, a solid wrestling base, heavy hands and ill intention. 1-3 in his last 4 fights, Barcelos has displayed an inconsistency that makes it hard to predict what fighter steps into the cage on any particular occasion.

Dangerous to start but uneven after early violence seems to best describe Barcelos.

Phillips arrives off a suspension so he battles inactivity besides the freakishly talented Barcelos.

Phillip’s wrestling base, cardio and durability are all assets but perhaps his biggest weapon is his intelligence. It’s here where I believe these athletes vary most.

Once this fight begins, Phillips will need to navigate through the damage and destruction that Barcelos is sure to offer early. However, once and if Phillips is able to weather that first five minutes of fury then it’s my judgement that he’ll be in position to use his cardio, wrestling and pressure late in order to suck the will from Raoni.

I’ll await props for this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday mid-day provided there is a UFC event. Look for us across all podcast platforms.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje II: Diamond in the tough

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday early PM PT.

This article was originally published on VSiN’s digital magazine 7/26

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 217 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division where second ranked Dustin Poirier faces third ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.

Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125 Middleweight (155lbs.) main event

I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.

What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized then that his ‘go for broke’ fight style, though entertaining for fans had to be refined and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division.

Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.

Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.

In Gaethje’s last fight we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight Gaethje displayed his fight evolution for he came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.

Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018 and to an extent I believe that to be true.

For Poirier there only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand has raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise, striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.

Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him THE threat to the title in my opinion should he get his hand raised here.

A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.

Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 take downs per fight and he defends 63% of takedown attempts.

A well-rounded approach.

Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38 but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no take down attempts in his bouts though he’s got a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns.

A singularly dimensioned approach.

Both men, after losing to Oliveira had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.

It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the ‘natural born brawler’ in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and ‘Poirier-like’ in his approach.

My question, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?

This fight opened Poirier -125

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -130

This total surprised me based on the fact that these two went a ferocious four plus rounds in their first fight.

Each man seems to be entering this fight more dangerous as mixed martial artists than when they first fought despite the five-year gap in bouts.

The point spread of ‘Poirier -5.5 points -105’ most surprises me as this seems to indicate a relatively one-sided fight favoring Poirier.

I handicap this fight as very tight early but as the minutes elapse wears Poirier’s speed, precision, power, cardio and footwork will be the differentiating factors in this bout.

Poirier via KO, Submission or DQ +130

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs. Alex Pereira +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Brazilian Pereira we last saw being KO’d By Israel Adesanya in their rematch at middleweight this past April after KO’ing the then champion in the fifth round of their first bout.

Pereira moves up to the 205lb. weight class for obvious reasons. He walks around at 225-230lbs. normally. The cut to 185 made him a monster to face on fight day but as Adesanya displayed this past April, that cut took too much away from the Brazilian stalwart thus this move up.

Weight class or not Pereira, a decorated, elite, world class kickboxer is relatively inexperienced in the MMA realm as his 7-2 record indicates.

He was profoundly powerful and dangerous at the middleweight level and his power will more than translate to light heavyweight.

What he may have issues with are the size of combatants he’ll face as well foe’s whose fight arsenal is equipped with world class grappling and wrestling are sure to provide Pereira with plenty of challenge for his area of improvement is surely grappling.

In ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, we have a relatively understated Polish killing machine trained in Judo, dangerous on his feet and decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Blachowicz has been in with the likes of Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira (Pereira’s coach and mentor) and Thiago Santos, so he’s prepared for structured, physical foes like Pereira.

What Blachowicz offers as his most valued asset in this fight is his well-rounded fight ability.

He can compete at a world class level anywhere this fight goes. Blachowicz’s certain edge in the grappling/wrestling department provide him the means to get his hand raised in this bout.

He’ll need to press and tax the Brazilian striker from the opening bell and try to back him up. Blachowicz does not benefit in any way by remaining at distance too long.

For Blachowicz, eliminating distance from Pereira, smothering him, clasping onto him, clinching then pressing him against the fence are signals he’s got the fight working by his parameters because the next move from fence is floor and once there this fight becomes Blachowicz’s to lose.

In summary, Blachowicz wants to fight forehead to forehead, then chest to chest while his Pereira must maintain distance in order to be effective with those long, vicious, damaging, knee’s, teeps, elbows and fists.

Blachowicz opened -145 for this fight because he is the experienced light heavyweight with more diverse weaponry. We’ve seen his price drop a bit leading into the week which in my estimation makes the Blachowicz side an interesting proposition.

Monitoring

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Under -185

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. All my final releases can be found there. I’ll also appear on VSiN’s ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday 5:30AM PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!