Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC FN Macao Yan vs. Figueiredo: Yan to Yan combat

This week the UFC travels around the globe to Macao, China for its Fight Night Macao.

The event’s preliminary action begins at 3am EST Saturday morning so prepare yourselves accordingly fight fans!

There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card but 4 of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC’. I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC so I have not handicapped these four bouts which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four in the 170lbs welterweight division or larger where there the finish rates are higher.

UFC Macao features seven Chinese and one Mongolian athlete who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.

There are but two remaining fight cards in ’24 after this event from Macao. The next is December 7th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.

Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300 Bantamweight (135lbs) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo, the former Flyweight (125lbs) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135lb. competition but competition from outside the top of the division.

At 125lbs. Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights but as he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135 division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.

My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: he fights like a cornered, wounded, pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators. Yan’s 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,

Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Where Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, Yan at a higher weight class has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% take down defense.

Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bone fide, true test of his bantamweight ability.

In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.

Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever will be the taller, larger, younger (5 years) man in the cage when these two tussle.

Once the fight starts it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo sooner than later into trying to apply his specialty of grappling. It’s then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take Yan down and engage in BJJ he may thrive.

However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.

It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -170

Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Kenan Song +160 Welterweight (170bs)

Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable, he takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.

Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes but he is now forty years old. After a couple of losses Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.

Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday which makes him mighty dangerous.

In Song we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage, he’ll be taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.

Song, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.

Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization which will bring out the best in each combatant.

The total in this fight of 2.5Rds Over -160 indicates a three round competitive battle. With that in mind I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home Country.

Song +160

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Goat race

Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.

The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.

UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.

Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.

Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.

Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.

Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title

Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.

Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.

Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.

In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.

Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.

He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’

Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.

Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.

We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.

Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.

Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.

It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.

At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.

I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.

Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!

In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.

In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.

Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.

Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.

He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.

The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?

To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.

Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.

I believe Oliveria earns victory again.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165

Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.

69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.

Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.

So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.

Three Fighter Parlay

Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.

Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.

Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.

1.47u returns 1.0u

Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.

The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.

The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.

Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.

This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.

Underdog correction?

I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.

Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.

Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.

In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.

His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.

In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.

Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.

Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.

There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.

Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.

So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.

I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205

Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)

Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.

Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.

Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.

He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.

Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s.  Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.

If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.

If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.

Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380

Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.

Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.

A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.

Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.

Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.

Trocoli +155 .5u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Week 10 Musing and Abusing

NFL observations from a betting perspective

The Arizona Cardinals should be credited for their efforts and results so far this year. Let’s see how the second half transpires but this team is reacting well to head coach Jonathan Gannon.

Injuries seem high? Yes, because pre-season work effort is minimal. It’s simple.

Saquon Barkley’s play this past weekend was a perfect example of an athlete training for any condition then when confronted with danger, allows instinct and athletic prowess to rule. He never had a chance to think about or set up that move, it was pure instinct.

De’Von Achane is a talented player, and the Dolphins have a group of athletes on offense that can dominate provided they are not competing in inclement weather, and they have a full complement of team weaponry. That defense however is horrendous.

Quietly the Eagles are 6-2 and have not put it all together yet.

There are many teams that are still putting it together. They include the Hawks, Rams, Buc’s, Chargers, Cards, Commies and Steel.

11 of 32 teams have 2 or 3 wins after week 9…. That’s pretty telling results for a league striving to create parity at all costs.

Houston plus 3.5 against the red-hot Lions this week? Yep. This is the first home game for the Texans in a month and the Lions arrive off an emotional win against division rival Minnesota last week. Great spot for Houston.

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Edmonton: Moreno vs. Albazzi: Rose colored smashes

Edmonton, Alberta hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night production where an exuberant crowd, the larger 30’ Octagon and fourteen scheduled mixed martial arts fights will exhilarate fight fans. Preliminary action begins at 2pm PT.

Last week favorites continued their record setting pace by realizing an 11-2 result pushing favorites to 301-125-13 or 68.5%. This is as high a favorite rate as I have ever witnessed in my twenty plus years of chasing UFC underdogs!

Digital results were reduced by a unit with Kamzat Chimaev’s destruction of Rober Whittaker. Results this year stand 24-22 +7.65u despite the chalk parade thus far in 2024.

Brandon Moreno -150 vs. Amir Albazi +130 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

This main event pits the number two ranked flyweight against its number three ranked athlete.

Albazi, an Iraqi purple belt in BJJ is 17-1 and ranked third in the division. Albazi is a furiously paced striker/grappler who has finished fourteen of his seventeen previous opponents.

After competing against nominally ranked fighters in the division Albazi stepped up in class in his last fight which was June of 2023 to squeak out an oh so close decision against Kai Kara France. I can tell readers that most everyone who viewed the fight scored it for France as did nineteen of twenty-one press attendees.

Brandon Moreno is a Mexican hero for being the first to capture a UFC title for Mexico.

He’s put himself through a torrid pace over the last seven years or so fighting the who’s who of the division and besting all comers save for a recent loss to Brandon Royval that convinced Moreno to go away for some time to refresh his mind in order to allow his body to recuperate and the ‘fight’ in him to be reinvigorated.

Moreno is the number two ranked fighter in the division. He’s the taller man by two inches with the same amount of reach advantage and he’s a year younger than Albazzi.

Size, experience, depth of competition faced, and well-rounded mixed martial arts aptitude all point me to Moreno in this five-round fight.

Total in this fight is 4.5Rds. Over -200

Mike Malott -240 vs. Trevin Giles +195 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Low hanging fruit.

Trevin Giles is a journeyman welterweight talent that has been given incredibly difficult fights recently. After a victory against a similarly versed foe, he has been finished by two absolute killers.

Giles is a former police officer, so he always earns my respect, but he’s been exposed to dangerous more pedigreed athletes in those last two bouts where one who submitted him then the next knocked him out.

Now he is assigned a date this Saturday to face a Canadian killer who was exposed in his last fight and is ready for a major bounce.

Mike Malott is the former top fifteen athlete in the division before Nel Magny, the current number fifteen finished him in Toronto in January. Now he gets a return fight, in Canada and against an athlete that seems ideally placed there.

This is a poor, poor spot for Giles as the UFC seems to be set on allowing Malott every opportunity to matriculate his way back into the welterweight rankings.

Malott -240

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Lean Over

Jhonata Diniz -180 vs. Derrick Lewis +155 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Two ships passing in the night?

Diniz is a brazen Brazilian heavyweight. At 8-0 he’s shown himself to be a fast, powerful striker as he has KO’d seven of his eight professional victims.

However, Diniz 2-0 in the UFC steps up aggressively here to face ‘the Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis so he understands this opportunity offers both high risk with high reward.

Lewis is the all-time KO king in the UFC. He is more athletic than most give him credit for and for six or seven minutes, provided any fight remains standing like this one figures to, Lewis is as dangerous a heavyweight fighter as there is.

There is a reason this fight is situated where it is!

Props are not out but the total is and it’s 1.5 Rds. Under -145 which leads me to believe that one of these two is getting dusted…

The ‘Bout business Podcast drops Friday midday Pacific Time. Grab all my final UFC releases there.

Enjoy the hostilities and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 308 Topuria vs. Holloway: Spanish fly

Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates hosts this week’s UFC 308 event where a full crowd, a large 30’ octagon and twenty-eight elite athletes are scheduled to compete for pride, evolution toward a top ten ranking and championship belts.

Of the fourteen featured fights nine fights take place from welterweight (170lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.) so fight fans will not only see highly ranked athletes competing but they’ll see large, agile, ultra dangerous ones compete at that!

Last week Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez displayed that “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight rather the size of fight in the dog” as he systematically broke down the hulking Brazilian striker Michel Pereira and finished him in the fifth round. That victory pushed this column’s profitability to 24-21 +8.65u to date.

Ilia Topuria -235 Champion vs. Max Holloway +195 Featherweight (145lbs.) title

For the last several years, Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski have Championed the featherweight division. Volkanovski was an unfortunate yet guilty party to rushing back for a title defense some months ago to defend it against Topuria and the German born athlete fighting out of Spain KO’d the Aussie for committing the error.

Since that fight in February of this year Topuria has taken every parade route available to celebrate his title while throwing barbs at fellow featherweights he proclaims to be unworthy of facing him.

One of those happens to be former featherweight champion Max Holloway, Topuria’s opponent Saturday. Max is convinced that Topuria’s been ducking him with the help of the UFC and to be honest I believe there’s some truth to the accusation.

Topuria is a most electrifying champion who holds deft boxing ability and footwork, he has power emitting from every appendage. He is twenty-seven, a black belt in BJJ and was also raised with a stout Grego Roman wrestling base at an incredibly early age. It’s this facet to Topuria’s fight arsenal that provides him with the unfailing confidence that no matter where a fight goes, he’ll hold advantage.

Violent tools, youthful confidence, and tremendous belief/momentum Topuria totes into this tussle with an all-time great.

Max Holloway is thirty-two but has been competing against the top five of this division for years. Besides competing against the elite, Holloway, a brown belt in BJJ himself, brings four inches of height advantage into this fight which will provide him with a substantial edge provided Holloway can keep the fight standing and at distance.

Once the fight begins Max will use his footwork to maintain distance and apply a steady dose of volume combination striking/kicking onto the incoming attacker ‘El Matador’ who will be the forward charging, raging bull in this fight Saturday despite his nickname.

Topuria will trust the plan of attack most effective against Holloway which was perfected by Volkanovski’s approach to be the Hawaiian.

A steady dose of forward pressure striking, deft head movement and evasion of strikes and takedowns strategically implemented to keep the taller Holloway guessing.

Topuria camp understands that Holloway has never been finished and they’ll surely be looking to change that narrative.

Holloway for his part must be a businessperson in the cage and his attack must appear much more clinical in nature. He must ensure he maintains a calm demeanor for any pointing to the mat and toe-to-toe throwdown offers will not produce a favorable outcome against this younger, quicker, more profusely powerful Topuria.

This fight has every indication of being one of the most action-packed fights of the year and I’ll have more to say about it as the week wears on.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Round Under -125

Kamzat Chimaev -250 vs. Robert Whittaker +210 Middleweight (185lbs) co main event

Chimaev is a Russian with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess who fights out of Sweden. He hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential early in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division.

Chimaev’s two middleweight wins were against one Gerald Meerschaert who is a legitimate athlete fighting outside of the top fifteen, then Kamaru Usman the former welterweight title holder who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close decision.

Whittaker’s a bona-fide middleweight elite.

He’s ranked third in a division where he’s held the title previously and one that is as competitive as there is in the UFC.

A black belt in hapkido, a black belt in karate and a black belt in BJJ, Whittaker’s competed against every form of middleweight threat, body type, fighting specialty and nationality,

Save for a loss to current champion DuPlessis, which was an off night for Whittaker and two title losses to then champion Adesanya, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years and now he faces an opponent that’s not competed in the octagon since last October.

When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from Chimaev.

Provided Whittaker can overcome Chimaev’s early overtures he’ll be in a great position to navigate this fight into the second round where he may begin to turn the tables on the wild maniacal front running Chimaev.

Whittaker must survive the first then in the second round he must tax the fatiguing Russian and direct him into the shadow realm where the effects of early round high output fighting can fatigue and conquer the most formidable fighter.

Whittaker has a depth of experience; he’s faced every form of threat in the division, and he’s focused on a title return. His drive, patience, plan and most importantly his legitimate middleweight strength will over the course of this fight begin to sap the young brash Chimaev of his striking effectiveness then eventually his ability to fend off an opponent in Whittaker who will turn up the intensity of his strikes each minute until Chimaev cracks.

I expect it to be sometime in the second round that Whittaker begins to dominate this fight and eventually shuts this bloated welterweight down via stoppage.

Whittaker +210

Chimaev must prove he is able to compete with the Middleweight elite.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -125

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available early Friday AM since these fights from Abu Dhabi begin at 7am PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV99 Pereira vs. Hernandez: A boy named Su

The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC LV99 event whose fight card is populated with eleven bouts but only a few feature world class fighting talent.

Other bouts offer journeyman fighters yearning to graduate from the depths of their perspective weight classes a chance to earn an impressive win and solidify themselves within the organization.

To say that most of the fighters competing on this card Saturday are fighting for their UFC future is reality in my judgement. So now, besides intensity add a sprinkle of pressure onto these athletes.

Last week we rolled to victory with young Clayton Carpenter who earned a submission win, then we watched Brad Tavares as a +170 underdog be awarded a decision loss in his fight against the Iron Turtle.

To date digital profitability stands 23-21 +7.65u

Michel Pereira +110 vs. Anthony Hernandez -130 Middleweight (185lbs) main event

To provide readers with perspective on the dynamically equipped, versatile mixed martial artists that populate the middleweight division of the UFC let me state that these two killers Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked twelve and thirteen respectively!

Pereira, a flamboyant striker mixes his black belts in BJJ and Karate to detrimental results for opponents. He’s huge for the weight class (which always mandates keeping a close eye on his weigh ins) he’s explosive, athletic and sprinkles the unorthodoxy of Capoeira striking into his attacks.

Since an unusually odd loss to Diego Sanchez in 2020 Pereira has won his last eight fights in impressive form albeit against moderately talented UFC competition save for a victory over fellow Brazilian Santiago Ponzinibbio at welterweight a few years back.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Rodriguez we get an opponent for Pereira who is anything but what his nickname indicates.

Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ with a solid wrestling base arrives with the momentum of having won his last five fights. The last three combatants he faced presented a diversity of attack besides representing a step up in level of competition for Hernandez and he reacted by finishing all three men.

Hernandez is a bit more calculated, matriculated, and premeditated in his approach to opponents than Pereira. His athleticism, legwork and wrestling base allow him to quickly transition into dominant positions as soon as any opponent makes the slightest error.

Once the bell for this fight chimes, it will be Pereira taking his pressure striking right to Hernandez and Hernandez will be forced to deal immediately with that forcefulness.

Hernandez must manage this fight into the second round and beyond and provided he is able to withstand early hurricane force from Pereira, he stands a great chance of overcoming Pereira later in this fight by using intelligence, patience, and skill.

Conditioning and fight IQ are the foundational aspects for anyone competing against Pereira and in Fluffy the Brazilian destroyer has drawn as intelligent a fighter as competes in the division as well the whole of the UFC.

Hernandez will need to draw Pereira into his wrestling, mauling range then engulf the brazen Brazilian with his smothering grappling in order to both force the power striker into defending himself as well suck some of the explosivity from the monster by making him grind to get away from the clasp.

I regard Pereira as a front running Hare, he’s more explosive, he’s more powerful but he also expends great deals of energy on his attacks. Foes that can navigate fights into the later stages of three rounds, and this is a five-round fight, can earn success against Pereira as a determined foe and the onset of fatigue usurps the will from the buzzsaw.

Hernandez, the ‘tortoise’ has all the natural ability as well he possesses the fight acumen to navigate this battle into the late second round and beyond. I see maneuvering this fight into the later rounds as mandatory for Fluffy’s chances of winning and I believe he’ll be able to use his mind to conquer Pereira’s matter in this matchup.

Hernandez opened -200 for this fight, he now stands -130 however I regard the opening line as a more accurate depiction of these two men’s skills. I’ll invest in Hernandez -130 with advice to get him now as this price is too low in my judgement and is bound to creep back up.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155 (BOL)

Kyler Phillips -470 vs. Rob Font +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

This fight is such a fitting example of what ‘value’ really means in gambling.

Phillips, a brown belt in BJJ, and a Nikidokai black/red belt is called Matrix because that’s exactly how he moves. He trains with another six or eight world class bantamweight mixed martial artists at the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ where the competition is high and the respect even higher.

Suga Sean O’Malley, Mario Bautista, Marcus McGhee, and Clayton Carpenter are just a few of the world class fighters sharing rounds at the Lab with each other. There, steel is sharpening steel when it comes to these men’s abilities.

Phillips is extremely athletic, he’s quick as a cat and in mixed martial arts weaponry he is as equipped as Mother Russia for he can strike, wrestle, grapple, and gruel all night long.

He’s finally earned his top fifteen stature and with this fight against Font he hopes to solidify his ascent within the bantamweight division, one that’s chock full of killers.

Rob Font is a determined, experienced striker from Massachusetts. He is an exceptional boxer and is complimented by a brown belt in BJJ. Font’s competed at lightweight, featherweight and now bantamweight which at thirty-seven is of note, for those weight cuts to 135lbs can’t be easy for any young fighter let alone a lower weight athlete now pushing forty.

While these men are similar in height and reach it’s the age, the quickness and agility that separate these two in my handicap.

Once this fight begins, Phillip’s movement, athleticism and overall mixed martial arts weaponry will be on display and while he may not be able to finish the proud warrior it’s my take that he wins a one-sided fight if there is no finish.

Now getting to the value in gambling part….

Phillips opened -225 for this fight. I released him last week at that price. Today he is -400/-450 and while this opponent is an advantageous one for him to compete against, the fact remains that this is a fight, anything can happen and Font’s no walk in the park.

I handicap Phillips to be a steal at -225 and a buy all the way to -290 regarding straight bets. I would use him in parlay pieces up to -325 but after that the risk is too high for the competitiveness of this bout.

Last week that the 23-year-old Tatsuro Taira opened -195 and closed -340 or so against number one contender and veteran flyweight Brandon Royval. Royval won the split decision as +250 dog!

In summary, those that obtained Phillips early in this betting cycle hold ‘value’ into this fight based on current pricing. The fact that Phillips is a fine buy at -225 does not in any way, shape, or form make him a worthy consideration at -400 or higher.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -225

Lean over.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day at GambLou.com. Get my final releases there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability

NFL Musing and Abusing: Week 7 style

“I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd, when they said, sit down, I stood up”!

Springsteen ‘Growing up”

Sport is cruel.

I wish to offer prayers and best wishes to young Aiden Hutchison. The violence those men deal with daily is beyond most people’s understanding. To see his leg snapped like a twig Sunday only exemplifies how lucky the few are that get to compete at such a high level.  NFL athletes undertake extreme risk on a daily basis.

Davante Adams is going to resuscitate the Jets! I’m not so sure I believe that… the Jets need horses on the O-Line in my estimation, but Adams can’t but help that run game a bit… time will tell with these Jets, Jets, Jets.

One thing’s for certain, as there IS time for them to right that downbound train.

How ‘bout them Cowboys?

Jerry Jones is doing to the Cowboy’s what the children of Papa Bear Halas have done to the Bears. No doubt intentions were and are ‘admirable’ but institutional prowess and execution are flawed. When ‘one’ does not belong in the football business, it shows!

The best news for the Pokes and the Bears? There exists….the Browns and the Bears and Boys ain’t quite there…..yet!

Don’t think I have forgotten about the Raiders!

What Al’s son has done to the culture of that team is unfortunate. Sure, the franchise, like that in Dallas and Chicago even Cleveland are appreciable wealth assets but what about pride? What about serving your people? What about showing up with some dad gummed civic pride for the fans?

Philly? They got head coaching issues and what’s about to boil over there may not be pretty. Someone in the NFC East better watch out for the Commies.

NFC South was supposed to be the cheap suits, yet it seems like they have two legit playoff contenders there.

I hope Tagovailoa can play and maintain full health again. I was lucky enough to be in a huddle from 1967 to 1993 and I understand the importance of team for men of that age. Everlasting bonds man.

Jet’s fire Salah. Unfair, hail yes but it IS the nature of this profession. Salah will be back as soon as he wants to say yes to the many offers to D Coordinate he’ll receive.

Bills, Vikes, Lions, Pack, Texans, Chiefs, Hawks and Steel….Super Bowl winner comes from that group from this week 7 perspective.

The Jags zigged when they should have Jagged. Young QB who entered the NFL with accolades is simply not performing to his reputation…that said, the front office geniuses dumped WR talent this offseason like it was cancerous?

I see some games this week that offer great opportunity based on the reactions (as in over) from last week…. Week 6 was a public slaying of the bookmakers capped off by the Bills cover MNF for the cherry on top.

While I won’t ‘cry no tears’ for the bookies, I’ll assure you that there will be some public confident bet’s coming in on the NFL this week.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV98 Royval vs. Taira: Flat Taira?

This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.

The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.

Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.

Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.

Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.

Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.

Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.

In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.

Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?

The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.

While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125

Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

These two were scheduled to fight July 20th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.

Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.

Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.

Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.

In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.

Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.

Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265

Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)

The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!

Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.

After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.

In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.

Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.

Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.

Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155

Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.

Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.

While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.

Carpenter -190*

Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree: Ovince Von Flue?

Salt Lake City, UT is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.

Early Preliminary action begins at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 7pm PT.

This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged thirty-six or older.

The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.

Lat week I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u

Alex Pereira -450 vs. Kalil Roundtree +385 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title

Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.

The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the lady’s bantamweight title fight for this event and they went directly to Pereira as he is as popular with fight fans as he is lethal inside the cage against opponents.

Since July of 2022 Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz which together is proof that this monster is able to compete for a full twenty-five minutes and against absolute elite level light heavyweight competition.

In Roundtree we get the eighth ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists and committed to an aggressive dose of leg bludgeoning kicks.

Roundtree’s level of competition faced wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed so his step up in competition is substantial if I may be understated.

Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira who will be three inches the taller man in the cage and will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.

Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs so there is no real quandary in the fact that Pereira came -450 at opening for this fight.

This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.

Roundtree has intelligence, he has power and a forceful will, so we know he’s coning into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.

Total in this fight:  1.5Rds. Over -145

Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Pena is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022 which also happened to be the last time Pena competed in the octagon.

Pena’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue blet in BJJ Pena backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.

In Rocky Pennington we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ earned the title in a dynamic win over Myra Buena Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in similar grinding fashion.

Once this fight begins it will be Pena who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash damaging strike upon the Champion.

As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington as she must eliminate Pena’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as is the champion.

Standing Pena will hold advantage in this championship fight while in the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight in order for her to hold advantage.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angel Dundee would say and in this championship fight where the bout takes place will be indicative to who is in control of this fight.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince St. Preux +250 light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Spann, thirty-three is 6’5” tall is a front running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division however after the first round or so Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.

Spann’s power, cardio and more importantly he confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. It’s my opinion that his obstacles are mental for the man is tall, long, and violently natured.

In St. Preux we have an athlete that at 41 seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.

St. Prez’s more well rounded as a fighter for his striking is better than average and his forward pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout St. Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s one Kennedy Nzechukwu in an oh so close decision.

Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by St. Preux and Ovince must force this fight into the second round and beyond in order to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.

St. Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.

Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night and it’s my position that St. Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.

St. Preux +250

.5 unit investment

Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over

Lean over for St. Preux best interest!

Friday mid-day my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.