The GambLou.com 2024 Business report will be posted here Monday. Results for all Sporting investments win/loss, total earnings and ROI all provided.
It’s Business
2024 GambLou.com Business report
UFC FN Tampa Covington vs. Buckley: Run for Covington
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the final UFC event of 2024, Fight Night Tampa Covington vs. Buckley.
This card is scheduled for 13 fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and main card 7pm PT.
Three of the 13 bouts feature larger 170lb men or larger and the thirty-foot cage will be employed.
Last week favorites continued their torrid tear by realizing a 12-2 result pushing chalk to 70.5% on the year.
I feel fortunate to have been able to derive profit through this run of chalk in 2024. Further, this column plans on being front and center when (and in my judgement it is only a matter of ‘when’), this favorite foray finally flails.
I am unable to grade last week’s Digital release of Volkov +285 as a winner despite the fact that he won that dad gummed fight. The judges awarded the decision to Cyril Gane in a result that was simply incorrect. I feel for these athletes as their career, their livelihood, their earnings all depend on judges most of whom are categorically incapable of understanding how to accurately grade UFC bouts. Choi +120 and Over -170 in that same Choi vs. Landwehr fight both cashed.
Into this final card, digital releases this year stand 28-26 +7.48u.
The next UFC card takes place January 11, with that in mind, this column will return January 7th with my breakdowns of the first fight slate of 2025.
Let’s Fight!
Joaquin Buckley -260 vs. Colby Covington +230 Welterweight (170lbs) main event
Buckley, from East St. Louis is the eighth ranked fighter in the division. He is short, squat, highly explosive, profusely powerful and he enters this fight with tremendous momentum.
Buckley opened a +145 underdog for this fight to his adversary Colby Covington, but the chalk changed from Covington to Buckley in short time.
The market seems to believe that Buckley is poised to conquer sixth ranked Covington.
Covington enters as a highly divisive figure. Many people hate his guts while others understand that his flakey UFC persona is simply an a schtick designed to allow him to play the heel while ratcheting up the eyeballs looking in to watch him be dominate or be pulverized.
In this fight It’s Covington who is the taller, longer athlete in the cage. He’ll have tremendous experience angle over Buckley as well he’s been in the cage with a far more stringent set off adversary than has his foe Saturday.
Covington’s wrestling ability can’t be matched for Buckley’s wrestling though developed is not on the same plane as is Covington’s. Covington uses volume striking to set up his wrestling while Buckley utilizes his wrestling to keep fights standing so he may enter the pocket and bludgeon his opponent with power strikes/kicks.
Buckley’s strikes have violent effects on his adversaries, he’s lightning quick and enters this fight having earned victory in his last five fights albeit against athletes that are not elite within the division.
Once this fight begins, it will be Buckley’s explosion and aggression that will be matched against Covington’s unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. Covington’s unending ability to compete 100% throughout twenty-five full minutes of war will be tested by the power and explosivity of Buckley’s strikes.
Explosive power against stamina and guile is how I view this fight and while Buckley is the younger, faster, more violent fighter, it is Covington whom I believe will force Buckley into the third round and beyond where ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all.’
Once this fight enters those later rounds, look for Covington’s guile, experience, wrestling and cardio to rule.
Covington +230
Total in this fight: 4.5Rounds Over -150
Daniel Marco -160 vs. Adrien Yanez +135 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
This has the makings to be one of the top battles in this last quarter of 2024.
Yanez, of Mexican descent is tough, durable, aggressive and enters this fight after getting back into the win column with a dominant performance over a game Vinicius Salvador.
Yanez’ father was a golden gloves boxer, so he grew up with a sturdy boxing base then at an early age added BJJ to his weaponry. He is currently a black belt in BJJ.
He fights Peruvian Daniel Marcos who enters this fight undefeated at 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC though that record should really be 4-0.
Marcos is very athletic, has fast, heavy hands and a deliberate leg numbing kicking attack. Each man’s faced a similar level competition. These two fight for ranking as the victor in this fight will be jettisoned into the top fifteen of an oh so very competitive bantamweight division.
Marcos must defend his undefeated mark while Yanez, who lost his undefeated record two fights back, is focused solely on taking the zero away from Marcos in dominating fashion.
Do not miss this battle.
The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -120
Joel Alvarez -350 vs. Drakkar Klose +295 Lightweight (155lbs)
Alvarez is your typical bully as he is oversized for lightweight but cuts dynamic amounts of weight in order to hold advantage over his adversaries in battles. He’ll be taller than Klose by four inches, he’s five years the younger man and he’ll hold a couple inch reach advantage in arms and legs.
A brown belt in BJJ with decent striking acumen Alvarez was delivered his PhD. In MMA three fights back when Armen Tsarukyan mopped the floor with him. Since that setback Alvarez defeated both Marc Diakiese and Elvis Brener, two formidable lightweight opponents.
In thirty-five-year-old Klose we have an athlete that explodes like a barrel packet tightly with dynamite. He’s more experienced than Alvarez and has faced solid competition on his way to this a foundational fight for him.
Early in this fight, Alvarez will attempt to maintain distance and strike with Klose cautiously then eventually try to lure him into some form of clasp in order to try to ground him and initiate the ground battle for seventeen of Alvarez’s wins professionally have come via submission.
For Klose, his strategy is clear, smother the longer taller Alvarez with unrelenting forward pressure. Back him up and batter his body with hooks, crosses, and knees. Klose must attach his forehead to Alvarez’s chest where his inside position will make it easy for him to heave heavy power shots to the taller man’s body then move to the chin. Klose has one job Saturday night, pressure Alvarez backwards.
‘Styles make fights’ and in this one the tell will be ‘distance.’ If Klose can manage this fight to a standing war in a phone booth he will win. Should Alvarez be able to clasp, clinch, and ground Klose the night will be a long one for Klose. Great clash of fighting styles.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150
Friday at midday PT the Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com. Access my final releases for this card there.
Thank you for reading and merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.
UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura: Japanese knee’s
This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.
T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.
This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.
2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.
Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.
Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title
Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.
He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.
Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.
In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.
Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.
Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.
Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.
Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.
In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.
This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135
Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)
Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.
Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.
In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.
For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.
Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.
Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.
Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.
Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.
Volkov +285
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300
Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.
Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.
‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.
In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.
Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.
In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!
As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.
Choi +120
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170
Heavy lean over
Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
GambLou.com
It’s Business!
2025 ‘Bout Business Podcast
The 2025 UFC calendar year kicks off January 11th with Las Vegas 101 from its APEX center. Current Members may update their subscription service and any new potential subscribers may simply tap the “Bout Business” tab at the top of this webpage to discover the specifics. Potential members may also e mail me directly at Lou@GambLou.com for further communication or data on my previous year’s results…
I’ll be posting a full business report for all the sports I invest in mid-December.
Enjoy the final quarter of the football season and Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.
UFC FN Macao Yan vs. Figueiredo: Yan to Yan combat
This week the UFC travels around the globe to Macao, China for its Fight Night Macao.
The event’s preliminary action begins at 3am EST Saturday morning so prepare yourselves accordingly fight fans!
There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card but 4 of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC’. I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC so I have not handicapped these four bouts which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four in the 170lbs welterweight division or larger where there the finish rates are higher.
UFC Macao features seven Chinese and one Mongolian athlete who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.
There are but two remaining fight cards in ’24 after this event from Macao. The next is December 7th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.
Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300 Bantamweight (135lbs) main event
Brazilian Figueiredo, the former Flyweight (125lbs) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135lb. competition but competition from outside the top of the division.
At 125lbs. Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights but as he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135 division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.
My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: he fights like a cornered, wounded, pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators. Yan’s 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,
Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Where Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, Yan at a higher weight class has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% take down defense.
Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bone fide, true test of his bantamweight ability.
In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.
Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever will be the taller, larger, younger (5 years) man in the cage when these two tussle.
Once the fight starts it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo sooner than later into trying to apply his specialty of grappling. It’s then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take Yan down and engage in BJJ he may thrive.
However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.
It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -170
Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Kenan Song +160 Welterweight (170bs)
Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable, he takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.
Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes but he is now forty years old. After a couple of losses Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.
Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday which makes him mighty dangerous.
In Song we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage, he’ll be taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.
Song, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.
Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization which will bring out the best in each combatant.
The total in this fight of 2.5Rds Over -160 indicates a three round competitive battle. With that in mind I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home Country.
Song +160
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China.
Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.
GambLou.com
It’s Business
UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Goat race
Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.
The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.
UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.
Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.
Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.
Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.
Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title
Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.
Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.
Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.
In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.
Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.
He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’
Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.
Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.
We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.
Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.
Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.
It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.
At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.
I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.
Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event
We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!
In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.
In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.
Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.
Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.
He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.
The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?
To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.
Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.
I believe Oliveria earns victory again.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165
Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.
69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.
Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.
So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.
Three Fighter Parlay
Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.
Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.
Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.
1.47u returns 1.0u
Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.
GambLou.com
It’s Business
UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force
Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.
The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.
Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.
This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.
Underdog correction?
I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.
Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.
Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.
In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.
His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.
In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.
Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.
There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.
Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.
So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205
Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)
Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.
He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.
Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.
If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380
Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.
Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.
A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.
Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.
Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.
Trocoli +155 .5u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital
GambLou.com
It’s Business!
NFL Week 10 Musing and Abusing
NFL observations from a betting perspective
The Arizona Cardinals should be credited for their efforts and results so far this year. Let’s see how the second half transpires but this team is reacting well to head coach Jonathan Gannon.
Injuries seem high? Yes, because pre-season work effort is minimal. It’s simple.
Saquon Barkley’s play this past weekend was a perfect example of an athlete training for any condition then when confronted with danger, allows instinct and athletic prowess to rule. He never had a chance to think about or set up that move, it was pure instinct.
De’Von Achane is a talented player, and the Dolphins have a group of athletes on offense that can dominate provided they are not competing in inclement weather, and they have a full complement of team weaponry. That defense however is horrendous.
Quietly the Eagles are 6-2 and have not put it all together yet.
There are many teams that are still putting it together. They include the Hawks, Rams, Buc’s, Chargers, Cards, Commies and Steel.
11 of 32 teams have 2 or 3 wins after week 9…. That’s pretty telling results for a league striving to create parity at all costs.
Houston plus 3.5 against the red-hot Lions this week? Yep. This is the first home game for the Texans in a month and the Lions arrive off an emotional win against division rival Minnesota last week. Great spot for Houston.
UFC FN Edmonton: Moreno vs. Albazzi: Rose colored smashes
Edmonton, Alberta hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night production where an exuberant crowd, the larger 30’ Octagon and fourteen scheduled mixed martial arts fights will exhilarate fight fans. Preliminary action begins at 2pm PT.
Last week favorites continued their record setting pace by realizing an 11-2 result pushing favorites to 301-125-13 or 68.5%. This is as high a favorite rate as I have ever witnessed in my twenty plus years of chasing UFC underdogs!
Digital results were reduced by a unit with Kamzat Chimaev’s destruction of Rober Whittaker. Results this year stand 24-22 +7.65u despite the chalk parade thus far in 2024.
Brandon Moreno -150 vs. Amir Albazi +130 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event
This main event pits the number two ranked flyweight against its number three ranked athlete.
Albazi, an Iraqi purple belt in BJJ is 17-1 and ranked third in the division. Albazi is a furiously paced striker/grappler who has finished fourteen of his seventeen previous opponents.
After competing against nominally ranked fighters in the division Albazi stepped up in class in his last fight which was June of 2023 to squeak out an oh so close decision against Kai Kara France. I can tell readers that most everyone who viewed the fight scored it for France as did nineteen of twenty-one press attendees.
Brandon Moreno is a Mexican hero for being the first to capture a UFC title for Mexico.
He’s put himself through a torrid pace over the last seven years or so fighting the who’s who of the division and besting all comers save for a recent loss to Brandon Royval that convinced Moreno to go away for some time to refresh his mind in order to allow his body to recuperate and the ‘fight’ in him to be reinvigorated.
Moreno is the number two ranked fighter in the division. He’s the taller man by two inches with the same amount of reach advantage and he’s a year younger than Albazzi.
Size, experience, depth of competition faced, and well-rounded mixed martial arts aptitude all point me to Moreno in this five-round fight.
Total in this fight is 4.5Rds. Over -200
Mike Malott -240 vs. Trevin Giles +195 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Low hanging fruit.
Trevin Giles is a journeyman welterweight talent that has been given incredibly difficult fights recently. After a victory against a similarly versed foe, he has been finished by two absolute killers.
Giles is a former police officer, so he always earns my respect, but he’s been exposed to dangerous more pedigreed athletes in those last two bouts where one who submitted him then the next knocked him out.
Now he is assigned a date this Saturday to face a Canadian killer who was exposed in his last fight and is ready for a major bounce.
Mike Malott is the former top fifteen athlete in the division before Nel Magny, the current number fifteen finished him in Toronto in January. Now he gets a return fight, in Canada and against an athlete that seems ideally placed there.
This is a poor, poor spot for Giles as the UFC seems to be set on allowing Malott every opportunity to matriculate his way back into the welterweight rankings.
Malott -240
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140
Lean Over
Jhonata Diniz -180 vs. Derrick Lewis +155 Heavyweight (265lbs.)
Two ships passing in the night?
Diniz is a brazen Brazilian heavyweight. At 8-0 he’s shown himself to be a fast, powerful striker as he has KO’d seven of his eight professional victims.
However, Diniz 2-0 in the UFC steps up aggressively here to face ‘the Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis so he understands this opportunity offers both high risk with high reward.
Lewis is the all-time KO king in the UFC. He is more athletic than most give him credit for and for six or seven minutes, provided any fight remains standing like this one figures to, Lewis is as dangerous a heavyweight fighter as there is.
There is a reason this fight is situated where it is!
Props are not out but the total is and it’s 1.5 Rds. Under -145 which leads me to believe that one of these two is getting dusted…
The ‘Bout business Podcast drops Friday midday Pacific Time. Grab all my final UFC releases there.
Enjoy the hostilities and Thank You for reading.
GambLou.com
It’s Business
UFC 308 Topuria vs. Holloway: Spanish fly
Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates hosts this week’s UFC 308 event where a full crowd, a large 30’ octagon and twenty-eight elite athletes are scheduled to compete for pride, evolution toward a top ten ranking and championship belts.
Of the fourteen featured fights nine fights take place from welterweight (170lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.) so fight fans will not only see highly ranked athletes competing but they’ll see large, agile, ultra dangerous ones compete at that!
Last week Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez displayed that “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight rather the size of fight in the dog” as he systematically broke down the hulking Brazilian striker Michel Pereira and finished him in the fifth round. That victory pushed this column’s profitability to 24-21 +8.65u to date.
Ilia Topuria -235 Champion vs. Max Holloway +195 Featherweight (145lbs.) title
For the last several years, Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski have Championed the featherweight division. Volkanovski was an unfortunate yet guilty party to rushing back for a title defense some months ago to defend it against Topuria and the German born athlete fighting out of Spain KO’d the Aussie for committing the error.
Since that fight in February of this year Topuria has taken every parade route available to celebrate his title while throwing barbs at fellow featherweights he proclaims to be unworthy of facing him.
One of those happens to be former featherweight champion Max Holloway, Topuria’s opponent Saturday. Max is convinced that Topuria’s been ducking him with the help of the UFC and to be honest I believe there’s some truth to the accusation.
Topuria is a most electrifying champion who holds deft boxing ability and footwork, he has power emitting from every appendage. He is twenty-seven, a black belt in BJJ and was also raised with a stout Grego Roman wrestling base at an incredibly early age. It’s this facet to Topuria’s fight arsenal that provides him with the unfailing confidence that no matter where a fight goes, he’ll hold advantage.
Violent tools, youthful confidence, and tremendous belief/momentum Topuria totes into this tussle with an all-time great.
Max Holloway is thirty-two but has been competing against the top five of this division for years. Besides competing against the elite, Holloway, a brown belt in BJJ himself, brings four inches of height advantage into this fight which will provide him with a substantial edge provided Holloway can keep the fight standing and at distance.
Once the fight begins Max will use his footwork to maintain distance and apply a steady dose of volume combination striking/kicking onto the incoming attacker ‘El Matador’ who will be the forward charging, raging bull in this fight Saturday despite his nickname.
Topuria will trust the plan of attack most effective against Holloway which was perfected by Volkanovski’s approach to be the Hawaiian.
A steady dose of forward pressure striking, deft head movement and evasion of strikes and takedowns strategically implemented to keep the taller Holloway guessing.
Topuria camp understands that Holloway has never been finished and they’ll surely be looking to change that narrative.
Holloway for his part must be a businessperson in the cage and his attack must appear much more clinical in nature. He must ensure he maintains a calm demeanor for any pointing to the mat and toe-to-toe throwdown offers will not produce a favorable outcome against this younger, quicker, more profusely powerful Topuria.
This fight has every indication of being one of the most action-packed fights of the year and I’ll have more to say about it as the week wears on.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Round Under -125
Kamzat Chimaev -250 vs. Robert Whittaker +210 Middleweight (185lbs) co main event
Chimaev is a Russian with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess who fights out of Sweden. He hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.
He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential early in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division.
Chimaev’s two middleweight wins were against one Gerald Meerschaert who is a legitimate athlete fighting outside of the top fifteen, then Kamaru Usman the former welterweight title holder who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close decision.
Whittaker’s a bona-fide middleweight elite.
He’s ranked third in a division where he’s held the title previously and one that is as competitive as there is in the UFC.
A black belt in hapkido, a black belt in karate and a black belt in BJJ, Whittaker’s competed against every form of middleweight threat, body type, fighting specialty and nationality,
Save for a loss to current champion DuPlessis, which was an off night for Whittaker and two title losses to then champion Adesanya, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years and now he faces an opponent that’s not competed in the octagon since last October.
When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from Chimaev.
Provided Whittaker can overcome Chimaev’s early overtures he’ll be in a great position to navigate this fight into the second round where he may begin to turn the tables on the wild maniacal front running Chimaev.
Whittaker must survive the first then in the second round he must tax the fatiguing Russian and direct him into the shadow realm where the effects of early round high output fighting can fatigue and conquer the most formidable fighter.
Whittaker has a depth of experience; he’s faced every form of threat in the division, and he’s focused on a title return. His drive, patience, plan and most importantly his legitimate middleweight strength will over the course of this fight begin to sap the young brash Chimaev of his striking effectiveness then eventually his ability to fend off an opponent in Whittaker who will turn up the intensity of his strikes each minute until Chimaev cracks.
I expect it to be sometime in the second round that Whittaker begins to dominate this fight and eventually shuts this bloated welterweight down via stoppage.
Whittaker +210
Chimaev must prove he is able to compete with the Middleweight elite.
Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -125
This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available early Friday AM since these fights from Abu Dhabi begin at 7am PT.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!