9-10 -.62u
NCState +115
NCState/Florida Under 10.5 1 u to earn .91u
Texas AM/Kentucky Under 9.5 1u to earn .91u
check back before the AM game…
UFC LV93 Perez vs. Taira: Flat Taira??
This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for a scheduled thirteen-bout fight card with preliminary action beginning at 4pm PT and the main card following at 7pm PT.
This fight card features eleven fights where the combatants are lightweight (155lbs.) and smaller. Blended finish rates for fights in that size range are: 51.2%. The smaller octagon in use at the APEX may help force confrontation but these smaller, obscure athletes on this production may produce more decision results from this perspective.
Last week I released two ducks as both Thiago Moises, who looked forty- and forty-year-old Jarred Cannonier were both defeated. Moises was never in his bout and looked old, slow, and washed.
Recent rumblings around the UFC surround the suspect stoppage for Cannonier and the potential for an immediate rematch between he and Nassourdine Imavov in France on a card currently scheduled for September 28th. Interesting.
Profitability for my free ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast releases: 9-6-2 +3.41u
Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -180 Flyweight (125lbs) main event
Twenty-four-year-old submission savant Taira ships in from Japan and is currently the face of UFC expansion in that Country. He enters thirteenth ranked in the division at 15-0, a purple belt in BJJ as well he is a gifted grappler who has performed exceptionally well in his five UFC fights.
Taira is getting special treatment as Japan is a fertile expansion area for the organization and the UFC is providing him this opportunity to face an established adversary in Perez who is ranked fifth in the division.
Perez is a formidable challenge for the young Japanese fighter. Though Taira is an inch taller and will hold a five-inch arm reach advantage the fact is that the stringency of UFC adversary Taira has faced pales in comparison to the elite level of opponent Perez has battled.
Those who read my columns understand how much I factor a fighter’s body of work and recent fights Perez has thrived in, specifically against Mohammad Mokaev force me to lean to him in this fight.
On top of whom Perez has competed against he’s been active for this will be his third fight since March 2nd while Taira’s last bout was this past December.
Once this fight begins, Taira’s natural athleticism, speed and length will be the tools he employs to try to bewilder Perez.
Taira’s advances will revolve around grappling and trying to coax Perez into a roll on the mat for Taira’s grappling has been foundational in his past victories and Perez has been submitted in prior bouts.
However, being submitted by experienced world class flyweight BJJ practitioners like Deiveson Figueiredo (now the sixth ranked bantamweight) and current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja carries little shame in my handicapping and Taira is not on that level of ability at this point of his fight career.
Perez for his part, will look to forcefully press the younger man backwards and eventually against the cage and make this fight a toe-to-toe throw down. Perez must establish his dominance early in this fight by showing little to no respect for his younger less experienced foe and employ his wrestling acumen to thwart Taira’s grappling and keep this fight on the feet.
Perez’s strength, savvy and who he has competed against force me to favor him in this spot against a talent in Taira who is stepping up substantially in competition for this opportunity.
In this fight Taira will have to prove to mixed martial arts investors that his grappling and overall fight acumen are complete enough to compete against one of the divisions elites in Perez.
Taira opened -250 to Perez +210 and in this situation, it is likely he will be awarded his PhD. in MMA as I judge the current flow of money coming in on the more established mixed martial artist Perez as justified.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145.
Jesse Armfield -175 vs. Brady Hiestand +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
I try highlight bouts that have the potential to be real bangers and this bantamweight battle sets up to be an edge of your seat brawl.
Hiestand is a willing striker with decent wrestling ability. Fighting out of Washington state he is 7-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC.
He dropped his first UFC fight against a solid fighter in Ricky Turcios then came back to defeat a couple journeyman athletes, so he enters carrying momentum.
One concerning aspect to Hiestand is his inactivity. It has been since April of last year since he stepped into the cage. Time off can indicate potential injury issues, yet time may also allow for fighter development so Hiestand must be regarded as dangerous in this situation and surely ready to fire fresh.
On the other corner of the cage stands Garrett Armfield who opened -220 for this fight and is now a more reasonable -175. Armfield has had the opportunity to compete twice since July of last year. His most recent win was against established commodity Brad Katona who he defeated via impressive decision.
Armfield has solid wrestling as well is aggressive on the feet. He is a finisher as he’s earned eight of his ten professional victories via submission or KO. His sole UFC loss was in his UFC debut which he took on short notice and up a weight against a featherweight fury David Onama.
It is the more complete fighting arsenal of Armfield that makes him the legitimate favorite in this bout. Now supplement his fight prowess with a contracting price and it is my handicap that Garrett Armfield is well positioned to continue his climb up the rankings Saturday against Brady Hiestand in what is more than likely a high-octane decision outcome.
Armfield -175
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -195
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day Friday, it offers listeners my best bets for each UFC card.
Access it each week there is a UFC event at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
Cup Passion
35-48 -10.12u
Oil opened +110, now +124
Oil +124 1u
UFC FN Louisville Cannonier vs. Imavov: Gorilla Warfare
Last week was the time to take advantage of the torrid run favorites this year in the UFC as the parlay of Sean Strickland -240/Jailton Almeida -170 earned 1.0 unit on a 1.06 unit investment.
To date digital readers are in the black as profitability stands 14-9 +8.73u.
10-2 were favorites at UFC 302 pushing chalk to 149-67-4 this year or 67.7% which is as high as I can remember tracking for favorites in the UFC during this past decade!
Regression must be coming but the great question… is when?
This week the UFC is in Louisville, KY for a card with thirteen scheduled fights, six of which are at the Welterweight (170lbs) division or heavier which may contribute to a higher potential for finishes as fight at 170 pounds and higher finish inside the distance at a clip of just over 59%.
Let’s Keep this momentum moving!
Nassourdine Imavov -130 vs. Jarod Cannonier +110 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Eighth ranked Imavov of Russian descent fighting out of France is an ascending talent in this division.
With a solid boxing base Imavov, 13-4 professionally has been developed his mixed martial arts arsenal under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.
5-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has been guided against more diversely and highly talented athletes every step of the way during his brief time in the UFC.
Now he gets his second firm test against a top five talent in Cannonier. In his first top five battle, Imavov was dominated by last week’s co main event winner and ex middleweight champion Sean Strickland.
The question to date is, has Imavov developed enough fight diversity and experience in the year and a half since he was squelched by Strickland to be able to compete effectively against Cannonier who by the way defeated Strickland?
In fourth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete finitely focused on a final run at a title for Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age though he competes like a man many years younger.
Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya.
At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested and his desire to earn another title opportunity drives him.
In this matchup Cannonier will possess advantages in speed, footwork, grappling and power while Imavov will be the man twelve years younger who will also hold a four inch height advantage. Reach advantage goes to Cannonier which in essence negates any advantage Imavov’s height provides him.
Once the bell for this bout begins, it will be Cannonier who is the forward pressing aggressor while it will be up to Imavov to hold his ground and attempt to bully, berate and batter Cannonier as Cannonier forges ahead to gain pocket position then unload on Imavov.
Both of these men are durable and a finish by either seems unlikely at this point as expressed by the total in this fight coming 4.5 rounds to the over -160.
Imavov believes he’s ready to take the top five position from Cannonier and Cannonier believes that by slaying this young ascending talent he only solidifies further his claim to be the next middleweight in line for a title shot.
I believe Cannonier’s physical attributes, his mental capacity, experience and level of competition faced all provide him advantage in this fight.
Cannonier +110
L’udovit Klein -130 vs. Thiago Moises +110 lightweight (155lbs.)
This fight will be crazy as two willing lefties will get the Louisville crowd lit up with their striking prowess.
The Slovakian Klein is 5-2 in the UFC but his wins were earned against dubious talent many of whom are no longer in the organization. An athlete with a boxing background complimented with some BJJ, Klein steps up his level of opponent faced considerably when he climbs into the cage Saturday against Moises.
Moises is a black belt in BJJ who has trained among the slew of elite and diversely talented lightweight athletes in Florida’s ATT gym before returning to Brazil for this camp to train with the Fighting Nerds team, a white hot group of Brazilian killers.
Moises will be the taller, larger fighter in the cage Saturday and he’s competed against an elite level of lightweight competition which is how and why I favor him in this confrontation.
I believe Moises is the faster striker with more developed BJJ acumen and it’s his comprehensive Jiu Jitsu acumen that sets his advantage in this bout.
Moises +110
Total in this fight 2.5Rds Over -195
The ‘Bout Business Podcast is 15-4 over the last three UFC events and stacking profit each week. The podcast drops this Friday around Noon PT and is available at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy this Louisville fight card.
GambLou
It’s Business!
NCAA Baseball: Super Regional Weekend
NCAA College World Series Super Regional Playoffs
We’re in the Super Regionals this weekend and that means we’re in a best of three series format as well the Tourney is down to the top 16 baseball clubs in the NCAA. This year I find that there is a great divide between honest threats to win this tourney. Those teams are Tennessee, Texas AM, Kentucky, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon State and Virginia.
Honest longshots that could make some noise are and surprise this year are North Carolina State and Florida
Then there are teams that overachieved in the regional round and now hit the road to face face elite baseball talent. Those teams are: West Virginia, Kansas State, UConn, Evansville and Oregon.
GambLou.com members are alive and thriving after the regionals and are poised to profit this weekend in the Supers!
It’s not too late to jump into a GambLou.com Membership for this year’s Tournament but if you do so it’s best to get signed up by Friday as the Super Regionals begin Friday Noon EST!
The College World Series, The Greatest Show on Dirt!
NCAA College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt
Omaha’s College World Series, the Greatest Show on Dirt
Initial Future releases available Tuesday May 27th
Here is my full article submitted to VSiN this AM:
The 64 teams are bracketed and will follow the same bracket format (and each team’s placement within said bracket) all the way to and through Omaha.
Understanding each team’s strengths and weaknesses is a big part of the CWS handicap but also understanding how each team sits in proximity to other top 20 competitors is foundational to tourney success. An efficient pass into Omaha always helps!
There are 11 SEC teams in the field of 64 and in that league steel sharpens steel…
SEC has 5 teams in the top 7 D1 rankings which were used to seed this tourney.
SEC teams will for the most part thrive vs. most non SEC competition and they are spaced such that SEC will not have to play vs. another SEC team in 5 of the potential 8 Super Regional best of three series which is quite favorable to SEC as a league.
The ACC has 8 teams in the field of 64 which is indicative of the ACC’s rise this year in hardball.
The ACC has 5 teams in the top 16 which were used to seed this Tourney.
I add a premium to veteran teams who made it to the Regionals, Super Regionals last year and pay Extra Attention to any teams that competed in Omaha last year for often they’re wide eyed fulfilling dreams that first year then if they can make it back they’re all business.
Teams in this year’s field that were in Omaha last year: Florida, LSU and Tennessee in the SEC and Virginia and Wake in the ACC Neither Oral Roberts, Stanford or TCU (the other 3 Omaha 2023 teams made the field of 64.
I could envision the SEC landing up to 6 teams this year in Omaha but more than likely 4 or 5 teams. I can see the ACC having success this year also and would not be surprised to see them land 2-3 teams.
After SEC and ACC there’s little room for all the other squads competing in this years tourney of 64…any making it to Omaha will have to be top caliber clubs: Oregon St. East Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona to name a few.
Arizona is in the most competitive regional in my opinion and I look for Dallas Baptist, a veteran team that made the Regionals
Bama, Duke, S.Carolina, S. Miss and Indiana St. all made it to the Super’s last year and were eliminated…look for them to be potentially live this year.
Omaha’s College World Series….The Greatest Show on Dirt!
UFC FN St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento: Nursultan of Swing
From South America to St. Louis, Mo. we track for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.
This fight slate is comprised of thirteen scheduled bouts to be competed in the larger thirty-foot octagon with participants arriving from thirteen differing countries.
Six of the thirteen bouts feature athletes 170lbs or greater.
Finish rates in three round fights comprised of fighters weighing 170lbs and above are 58.3%, so we may witness violent finishes on this card, at least that is the hope!
Last week Alexandre Pantoja -185 earned a close decision victory over Steve Erceg as well my release of big dog Anthony Smith +435 won via first round submission. What was not anticipated was how efficiently Smith would dispose of Vitor Petrino his Brazilian foe as I advised the over 1.5 Rounds. Smith disposed of Petrino some two minutes into the fight.
Digital profit for 2024 now stands 12-8 +7.73 after last week’s success. The task this week is to keep momentum rolling as we search for profitability in this week’s event.
Derrick Lewis -145 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento +125 heavyweight (265lbs.) main event
Brazilian mixed martial artist Nascimento is the fifteenth ranked athlete in the division. The thirty-one-year-old is a blue belt in BJJ and overall, a well-rounded grappler/striker who steps up in level of competition for this his first five round main event.
Derrick Lewis is now thirty-nine and ranked twelfth in the division. Lewis is not a mixed martial artist rather he is a behemoth of a man who stalks opponents down in order to club them into unconsciousness with his singularly dimensioned one strike KO power.
Lewis is short on footwork, take down defense and stamina though early in fights he displays athleticism and explosion though the limit for his explosiveness is around four minutes, after that Lewis is a telegraphing headhunter.
At this stage of his career, when Lewis fights, he’s calculating how best to expend his precious energy as his one way to earn victory is to touch the opponent on the teeth. With one detonation Lewis can put adversaries to sleep with one telegraphed connection.
That is Lewis’ plan of attack in any fight.
Nascimento’s last three bouts have all gone to decision so he can effectively compete for fifteen minutes, and it must be his approach to take Lewis past the first five minutes to burden the ‘Black Beast,’ force him to tire and therefore make any takedown attempt that much easier to execute.
The issue for Nascimento may be his chin. Is his sole loss earlier in his career to journeyman Chris Daukaus who is no longer in the organization, Nascimento was knocked out and Daukaus has fractions of the speed and power that Lewis holds.
Should Nascimento who opened a pick-em against Lewis be ‘chinny’ as that fight against Daukaus indicated then it is fair to say that he is in real danger against a profuse pounder like Lewis.
The total in this fight is lines 1.5 Under -145 which is concerning if one is trying to make a case for the Brazilian traveling to the ‘show me state’ to compete against a pure knockout threat like Lewis.
Pass
Joaquin Buckley -170 vs. Nursultan Ruziboev +145 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event
We last saw eleventh ranked Buckley 18-6 overwhelm top fifteen ranked Vicente Luque with his power striking in New York March 30th. That display put Buckley in the rankings as well put the division on notice that this man is a natural born finisher.
Buckley rarely employs a wrestling base developed in high school as his vicious fighting style was groomed in the streets of East St. Louis.
Besides fighting in his home city, Buckley totes momentum into this fight and he is exuding great confidence. Confidence is one weapon UFC fighters often boomerang into dynamic success.
Ruziboev, 34-8-2 enters this fight with vast experience though there are legitimate questions surrounding the authenticity of his record as well the caliber of athletes he’s faced.
Fighting out of the Renzo Gracie camp in Philly which is known for its cultivation and refining of wrestling/grappling based talent, Ruziboev enters this fight off an impressive KO finish of the modestly talented Sedriques Dumas which he accomplished March 30th on the same card as his opponent Buckley.
Ruziboev will hold seven inches of height supremacy and another four inches of leg reach besides his vast advantage grappling.
To date, we have not witnessed Ruziboev tussle against pedigreed UFC talent nor have we watched him have to endure any form or real trouble. That changes in this fight.
Once this scrap starts Ruziboev will look to distance himself strategically from the aggressive keg of TNT that is Buckley. Buckley will be impatient in his attempt to gain inside access and detonate hooks, crosses, elbows, and kicks on the tall man from Uzbekistan.
Ruziboev has everything to gain in this most intriguing battle. He must weather the furious first five minutes of this fight then find a way to clasp ahold of and press the explosive Buckley against the fence then onto the floor.
Then, after Buckley’s explosiveness is usurped by battle (that is the hope anyway) the fight could well turn to the towering, but well-structured grappler Ruziboev who uses a grinding methodology as opposed to immediate and sudden impact.
‘Styles make fights’ as Angelo Dundee used to chime and I regard this fight as exhibit ‘A’ for that quote.
Buckley opened -150 for this fight and his price has risen steadily early in the week.
The total in this fight is 1.5 over -130 which indicates potential success for the Uzbeki grappler as I do see this fight eclipsing that total.
I am back to an underdog release this week.
Ruziboev +145
GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my releases for this fight card will drop Friday mid-day Pacific time. Look for it at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.
2024 Kentucky Derby: Releases by Brutha Shue
Horse Players
Welcome to the GambLou.com Kentucky Derby breakdown. My college cohort Shue from New Orleans is kind enough to take the time to list his derby releases for our perusal. Shue’s been white hot leading up to the Derby and what he says is what I’ll be betting… enjoy and Good Luck!
OK my brother, here we go:
#2 SIERRA LEONE (3-1) will win – no doubt about it. Rain or shine – and I actually like him more in mud! Yeah, his fastest closing time(s) was on a muddy track in the Remson and then next fastest was in the slop for the Risen Star! Yes, he is one tough muddah! I also like his Beyer speed fig progressions: 71-91-95-98. No regression at all! A must have to win the KD IMO.
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM (8-1) is the only closest nag I can see getting there. Excellent closing times in most, if not all of his races. Another one with steady Beyer speed fig progressions: 72-77-87-87-97. But he is also is a deep, deep closer as is Sierra, along with my next pick…
#7 HONOR MARIE (20-1)I can see making a run at all of them. Another deep closer with some of the fastest final 1/4’s, especially in the LAD when he ran just a half tick behind CF at 1-3/16 mind you. His only Beyer fig regression, (71-81-92-80-96), was in the slop in the Risen Star – so his 5th place finish is excused. He just ain’t no muddah! But boy oh boy, I really like him to pop in the KD if on a dry track. 20-1ish?? I’ll take that! But as of this writing, Twinspires.com has him at 12-1 currently. Now…BEWARE, should the track somehow become “muddy” Friday evening, you must toss him and save your $ – he does not like the mud. So you’ll have to wait until the final to see how they rate the track.
My Outlier:
#6 JUST STEEL (20-1); well, this is the nag I can see mucking up the exotics. Will probably stalk the leaders and perhaps, could overtake, or at least hold on for a 3rd place finish? D Wayne might just have his nag ready to pop. And he is the most experienced horse in the race, along with West Saratoga with 10 races each. So why not!
The Weather:
As of this writing, it looks like some rain Thursday night, on into Friday and, off and on through Saturday – but I think the track could be fast by post time, 6pm-ish CST Saturday. But if the track is wet, muddy or sloppy, Sierra Leone will absolutely win – with Catching Freedom running just a tick behind him.
Analysis:
Look for Track Phantom, Fierceness, Just A Touch and Dornoch to hustle for the lead right away. Yet, Fierceness, IMO, will probably stalk once Track Phantom is all the way in front. I think Just Steel will effort to stalk as well. Meantime, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie will trail throughout, bringing up the rear, as is their usual. And my hope is these three will swing 6,7,8 wide on the final turn and start reeling in the 15+ rivals ahead of them. Need a fast opening ¼…like 22-ish to help my closers.
Will fade the Japanese horses, T O Password and Forever Young because I have no stats to run on them. I have race replays only. But Forever Young would be the only one to be a threat. And the Japanese are getting very, very close to winning – I just hope this is not their year.
No FIERCENESS (5-2) for me. Too inconsistent for my liking. I think once he starts getting bounced around heading to that first turn, he might just shut down. And I am not interested in putting any $ on a heavy fav with that possibility – no value here. I also think he ran his best race in the Florida Derby. He ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure and I do not think there is an upside to that – meaning he will regress IMO. His figs are 95-59-105-84-110. Yet on the other hand, if he is this monster horse, he could go gate to wire if fully unleashed and the, now 16 hole, could help him avoid getting jostled around. But I am still going to toss him.
Thank You Shue for your time and effort!
‘Sneak-Teep’ UFC 301 Pantoja vs. Erceg: Rio Bravo
This week’s UFC 301 will be held in Rio de Janeiro Brazil for a card that features a Brazil against the world theme as Brazilian athletes are featured in all fourteen of the fights presented.
The Brazilians will battle combatants from Peru, Lithuania, Wales, Ukrane, the United States and France among other participating athletes shipping in from various other counties.
Last week favorites realized a 7-6 mark making chalk 111-56-4 this year or 64.9%.
My release of Over 4.5Rds in the main event between Alex Perez and Mateus Nicolau lost making profitability on the year for this column 10-7 +6.23 units.
Time to get back in the win column!
Alexandre Pantoja -185 vs. Steve Erceg +155 Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship
Last week we witnessed a top ranked Brazilian flyweight get KO’d in the second round of the main event.
This week’s main event features flyweight Brazilian champion Alexandre Pantoja who opened -250 against challenger Steve Erceg from Australia +210. Since opening we have witnessed a tsunami of money being dumped on the challenger who now sits at +155.
Erceg 5’8”, is huge for the weight class but inexperienced as he arrives just 3-0 in UFC competition. He’s earned decision victories against two lower ranked opponents before finishing a porcelain jawed journeyman in Matt Schnell in his most recent bout.
Erceg’s ranked tenth in the division and makes his appearance in this headliner based on situational need as the UFC was left without a dance partner for Pantoja after Manuel Kape the original opponent dropped out.
Erceg is a singularly dimensioned power striker. He displays a 77% rate of take down defense though the foes he’s faced in the UFC and prior offered him only pure striking attacks. We’ve yet to see Erceg compete against any real form of grappler/wrestler in his career to date and that all changes Saturday.
In Pantoja we get a Brazilian mixed martial artist who has had to scratch, scrape and claw is way to the title through elite adversaries and a fighter who in his last five bouts has dominated every elite, skilled threat in the division.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown gym featuring numerous, skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his fight arsenal on a daily basis against every form of skilled competition.
Pantoja’s a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate athletes in the division.
Add to this the fact that he competes in front of his Brazilian compatriots Saturday and we have the recipe for a fighter poised to offer his absolute best effort.
It’s my judgement that Pantoja will need to be guarded and evasive early in this fight. He’ll adhere to a strategy of sapping the Australian slugger of his speed, power and ferocity in the first rounds. From there Pantoja will transition into employing his mobility, diversity and experience to out-manuever Erceg, force him against the cage then eventually ground the overmatched Aussie in order to gain top position and dominate.
Pantoja may have to weather early Erceg striking ferocity, but eventually his speed, skill, depth of experience, and championship pedigree will contribute to allowing Pantoja to display his prowess.
It’s my position that Pantoja was a value at the opening number let alone where he is priced currently.
‘Sneak-Teep’ Official Release
Pantoja -185
Total in this UFC 301 main event is 3.5Rds Over -130.
Vitor Petrino -520 vs. Anthony Smith +400 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
Unranked Brazilian athlete Petrino, 11-0 professionally and 4-0 in the UFC will arrive to this fight with the favor of the crowd, tremendous momentum, and the seeming ability to finish opponents based on his previous body of work.
However, scrutinizing his career results leaves me with the impression that Petrino is as bloated a favorite as we have seen in the UFC is several months.
Three of the athletes Petrino has defeated in the UFC are no longer with the organization and the other one is of journeyman caliber.
Sure, Petrino’s shown finishing ability, tremendous explosion, and power but in this one he steps up in class substantially.
Petrino’s advantage is that he is nine years the younger man and competing in his home country but in this tussle against tenth ranked UFC veteran Anthony Smith he will be giving away two inches of height besides a busload of experience and fight aptitude.
Anthony Smith does enter this fight after having lost three of his last four fights but let’s not overlook that those losses were against certified top fifteen caliber players in the division. His victory was against fifteenth ranked Ryan Spann.
Smith, a black belt in BJJ, is also a well-rounded striker who uses all four appendages to apply pressure upon opponents, he can wrestle, grapple and compete wherever this fight transitions to and he arrives in Rio feeling disrespected. Here is another case where I believe a fighter is poised to put up a very polished performance.
This line seems completely out of whack so with that said, I will step out and make a nominal investment on Smith based on principle.
Smith .25u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight 1.5Rds. Over -165
Over -165
This line does not accurately reflect Smith’s fight ability as I look for this one to go to the judges.
Friday mid-day PST the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at www.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
UFC LV91 Nicolau vs. Perez: Apoco’Lipski
UFC 300 was an epic fight card where results furthered the dominance favorites are enjoying in 2024. Chalk realized a 10-2-1 result pushing favorites to 104-50-4 or 67.5%.
Investing in UFC underdogs must be undertaken with an elevated level of due diligence as well a good deal of intestinal fortitude.
Digital results this year have been positive despite dropping the parlay of Jailin Turner paired to Rose Namajunas (-1.04u) because I earned most of that back with a single unit victory in Bobby Green’s (-180) domination over Jim Miller.
2024 digital results: 10-6 +7.23u (+132)
The UFC offers thirteen bouts on this week’s LV 91 card which will be held at its APEX Center. There will be few fans watching combatants fight in the close confines of that venue which employs the twenty-five-foot cage.
Matheus Nicolau -185 vs. Alex Perez +155 Flyweight (125lbs.) Main event
We last saw eighth ranked Perez fight eight weeks ago when he lost a close decision to seventh ranked Muhamad Mokaev after not competing in the cage for some two years.
Perez is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has dealt with inconsistency in the octagon because he’s been unable to compete without enduring long layoffs between bouts.
Perez has a well-founded wrestling base, solid BJJ and being of Mexican descent, it is understood that he is durable and has effective boxing.
In this opportunity he turns around quickly, which I believe to be foundational to the outcome of this main event.
Brazilian Nicolau is the fifth ranked fighter in the division. He enters this battle after being decimated by Brandon Royval in his last fight. However, prior to that setback he ran off six straight victories against top ranked flyweight competition.
A black belt in BJJ, Nicolau is fleet afoot, has superior ground acumen and is capable on his feet though he accrues damage via volume as opposed to possessing one strike KO power.
Nicolau’s been the more consistent fighter as he’s fought three times in the last two years while Perez has only battled once in that same period.
Total in this fight is 4.5Rds Under -145
This should be a competitive striking battle that ends via decision and for that reason I will invest in the total.
Over 4.5 Rounds +125
Karine Silva -150 vs. Ariane Lipski +125 woman’s flyweight (125lbs.)
In this battle of Brazil, Silva opened as the ever so slight favorite -115 to Lipski’s -105 with the total set at 2.5Rds. Under -115.
Lipski ranked twelfth lost to an underwhelming Pricilla Cachioera in 2022 before rolling through three straight foes while clearly improving with each straight victory.
Her last win against Casey O’Neill earned her a spot in the rankings and pronounced Lipski as a bone fide contender as opposed to a gatekeeper for the top twenty of the division.
Lipski has eleven UFC bouts under her belt. With a black belt in Muay Thai and a purple belt in BJJ, she is capable on the floor but quite dangerous on the feet especially from distance where she can launch damaging leg strikes.
Silva enters this fight as the thirteenth ranked athlete in the division and one who has ascended the ranks in far more efficient fashion than Lipski.
Silva’s more compact in body tyle than is Lipski and she carries more aptitude on the mat. Though she’s not highly decorated in any specialty her ground game and wrestling prowess are advanced and her aggression, forward pressure and striking power from the pocket are pronounced.
In this bout we will witness Lipski attempt to maintain striking distance to flush Silva on the face as she enters to engage.
It will be Silva’s plan to punish Lipski from inside the pocket after pressing her against the fence to eliminate her space and ability to distance herself.
This fight will be an action-packed striking affair only as long as it remains on the feet before Silva gains inside position then drags the less versed grappler to the floor.
Should Lipski be able to strike in space she’s liable to accrue damage on Silva over time. However, should Silva be able to make this fight dirty, grimy and waged inside a phone booth which is surely the plan, then her forced determination and heavy top control are liable to overwhelm Lipski who is well better at dolling out damage from the feet than taking it with her back on the canvas.
Lipski after opening -105 evolved to -140 until savvy bettors realized great opportunity and pounced on Silva making her the current favorite where I believe she will close.
I lean to Silva here in another fight that more than likely goes to the judges to be decided.
In each of the two heavyweight battles on this card both underdogs have taken money.
Austen Lane opened +255 in his fight against Jhonata Diniz and is now priced +200 while Caio Machado opened a +145 underdog to Don’Tale Mayes. Machado has been bet into the favorite and is currently lined -115.
Both bouts should be exciting with huge men in confined space.
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Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!