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UFC 299 was an epic fight card where favorites ran 3-2 on the pay per view main card. Overall, on the slate, chalk realized a 9-5 result making the 2024 total for favorites in the UFC 64-30-3 or 66%.

This week the organization returns to Las Vegas for a fight card which will take place at the UFC APEX where again, the smaller twenty-five-foot cage is used and very few fans are able to attend.

Overwhelmingly the athletes express a desire to compete in front of packed arenas where they can feed off the ferocity of the attendees despite the organization’s zeal to continue to hold events at its own forum.

Last week I hit both underdogs released. Curtis Blaydes was released at a price of -110 but ended up closing a slight underdog, knocked out Jailton Almeida in the second round of their heavyweight bout.

Dustin Poirier +185 was fully disrespected by the betting public in his bout against Benoit Saint Denis. He displayed how critical it is to recognize a professional fighter’s entire body of work as opposed to being blinded by recency and the lack of formidable, elite competition.

Saint Denis was not prepared mentally or physically to step up so aggressively in level of competition this early in his promising career.

Poirier awarded Saint Denis his PhD. In MMA but look for Saint Denis to rebound after being knocked out. There is a learning curve in world class mixed martial arts!

Those two underdog releases put my UFC profitability for this column in 2024 to 5-4 +3.05u.

Now let us investigate a fight card that offers thirteen bouts featuring athletes less recognized by most fans than last week’s UFC 299.

This production begins at 1pm PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which drops at 4pm PT.

Tai Tuivasa -115 vs. Marcin Tybura +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Number ten ranked Polish fighter Tybura 24-8, is a black belt in BJJ. Tybura’s grappling is the foundation for his fighting. His striking is not overly effective as he carries little speed, precision, or power in his hands though he does offer decent kicking power from distance despite telegraphing his intentions.

When matched against top seven heavyweight adversaries, Tybura’s lack of fluid footwork and precision striking leaves him exposed to being blasted when standing.

The singularly dimensioned Pole, as witnessed in his last bout, a first round KO loss against number one ranked Tom Aspinal, struggles against elite, well rounded heavyweight competition.

In Tai Tuivasa we have an athlete that enters the cage eight years younger than Tybura which is a great advantage.

The fun loving Australian, now training in California at AKA is a brawling Muay Thai based striker who carries an abundance of power in his hands and can end any fight with one pop to an opponent’s chops.

Tuivasa also lacks fluidity of movement and precision striking preferring instead to walk opponents down and engage in leveraged toe-to-toe brawls staged from the center of the cage.

Once the bell to this bout chimes, I look for Tuivasa to be on the hunt for hooks, crosses, knees, and uppercuts. Tybura will attempt to engage on the feet only long enough to clasp onto the Aussie, force him against the fence then try to drag the massive mauler onto the mat then attempt to gain top position where he can reign his own form of damage.

Where this bout takes place will go a long way in determining its outcome for Tuivasa is as ill prepared to grapple/roll as Tybura is to engage in an all-out stand-up fracas.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -180

Mike Davis -300 vs. Natan Levy +245 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Levy trains at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. He is only three fights into his UFC career realizing a 2-1 record.

Decorated with a third dan black belt in Uechi-Ryū Karate, a black belt in Kyokushin Karate, a black belt in Kung Fu and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Levy’s resume appears impressive, yet he has shown little ability to apply effective striking in his bouts.

Levy’s grappling/wrestling is much more refined than his striking despite his Karate accolades. Levy needs a victory over a legitimate UFC caliber opponent as the level of his previous UFC competition leaves much to be desired.

Natan steps up in class substantially to take on his opponent Mike Davis.

Davis, 10-2 professionally trains in Florida’s famous ATT. There he is able to train with an array of highly skilled professionals who offer a great diversity of specialized MMA skills.

Davis’s UFC record is 3-1 but he has faced a more stringent level of competition than Levy. His takedown defense, movement and cardio will also be differentiating factors in a fight that I expect could go all fifteen minutes.

After a second-round submission loss to Gilbert Burns in his debut Davis has rattled off three straight victories against very worthy UFC competition.

In this fight he will be challenged by the pressing grappling of Levy, but it is my judgement that Davis’s footwork and effective power striking makes him a legitimate favorite in this confrontation.

While both men have grappling backgrounds, I look for this bout to take place standing and it is on the feet that Davis’s youth, height and reach advantages coupled with his superior athleticism will provide him great advantage.

I normally avoid high priced favorites but in this fight Davis’s advantages are too glaring to overlook. Levy for his part is stepping up in class exponentially.

Rather than risk such a high-priced favorite straight up, I will choose instead to parlay Mike Davis with Rose Namajunas -168 who competes in the main event of UFC Las Vegas 89 next week at the APEX center against Brazil’s Amanda Ribas.

Namajunas, a former strawweight champion is making her second bout at flyweight after an ultra-close decision loss to top three ranked Marion Fiorot in her last outing.

Namajunas trains in Denver at altitude, has championship pedigree and is a fine accompaniment to Mike Davis.

This parlay application allows me to hold substantial price advantage on Namajunas next week provided Davis earns victory as a -310 favorite this Saturday.

Davis -310 to Namajunas -175 1u pays 1.07

Total in Davis vs. Levy 2.5Rds. -210 Over

Jake Filho -185 vs. Ode Osbourne +160 Flyweight (125lbs.)

The smaller twenty-five-foot octagon used in APEX bouts will have negligible effect on these two tiny athletes who enter the cage with differing specialties.

Osbourne, 12-6 is a southpaw striker who will sport a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. He is 4-4 in the UFC displaying skilled striking however his inability to fend off aggressive, forward pressing grappling/wrestling based athletes is extremely worrisome as he struggles mightily if/when grounded.

Osbourne must sell his soul to ensure this fight remains standing and if he can do so, he is in position to get his hand raised.

In Brazilian Filho we have a tough, cagey BJJ artist who is 15-3 professionally and 1-1 in UFC competition.

Despite Filho giving away UFC experience to Osbourne, his dynamic viper-like grappling enables him to engulf opponents then drag them to the dirt for a drubbing. Grappling defines his success.

In a ‘styles make fights’ matchup it is Osbourne who needs to remain standing in order to find success while Filho must find a way to clasp onto the longer striker, ground him, wrap him up, then choke the life out of him.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -210

Props are not yet released for this card, but I expect Filho to submit Osbourne sometime after a competitive first round.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is white hot after realizing huge returns in last week’s UFC 299, get all my releases for this week’s UFC LV 88 at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the aggression!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

This week UFC 299 takes place in Miami Florida. The early preliminary bouts begin at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 5pm PT.

This fight slate is stacked from top to bottom with each fight featuring athletes capable of headlining any fight night or PPV card on their own.

Let us break down a few of the dynamic bouts on this card.

Sean O’Malley -275 Champion vs. Marlon Vera +225 Bantamweight (135lbs) title

O’Malley is currently the UFC’s ‘lighting in a bottle’ as he has similar magnetism/drawing power to Conor McGregor and the Diaz brothers when those fighters were at their apex.

‘Sugar’ is wildly popular with the under thirty-five demographic and his fighting style utilizes his height and reach advantages to the utmost degree. O’Malley compliments those physical traits with a fluidity of defensive movement, sharp snapping strikes and elite footwork.

‘The Suga show’ has evolved into a champion mixed martial artist who is tall, long, precise with his leveraged striking and carries more power than most opponents believe. Further, O’Malley trains diligently on his craft and possesses far more advanced grappling and take down defense than he has been able to display in past bouts.

His opponent, fifth ranked Ecuadorian athlete Marlon Vera is not flashy rather he is gritty, grimy, and dawg-like in his approach to fighting. Vera’s not as gifted physically nor is he as fluent an overall fighter as his opponent but the weaponry Vera totes to the cage is mostly mental. Determination, focus, cardio, and the ability to wear opponents down physically/emotionally by applying unrelenting forward pressure are his assets.

This is a rematch of a 2020 bout that Vera won in the first round by incapacitating O’Malley’s beanpole legs with planned, bludgeoning leg kicks.

In this bout we will see Vera attempt to apply pressure from the opening bell to try to back O’Malley up and force him to use energy in his defense. He will surely work to squelch O’Malley’s ability to move by attacking those legs to incapacitate the champion.

O’ Malley for his part will need to maintain spacing which should not be an issue in the larger thirty-foot octagon. From distance he will then attempt to pepper Vera with jabs, counterstrikes, knees, and elbows as the edgy Ecuadorian presses inward to engage.

O’Malley -200 was the opening price for this fight, he now stands -285 over Vera whose takeback is +245.

Vera’s as or more determined as he was in their first bout, but it is O’Malley whose game has evolved more since these two first met. In that first bout Vera opened the favorite but O’Malley was quickly into the favorite position based on his overwhelming popularity rather than his mixed martial arts acumen.

For those reading, the time to jump the improved O’Malley is now as this price is SURE to rise until the bell for round one chimes.

Vera backers would be wise to remain patient and take every penny of value as Vera who must take this fight into the championship rounds to find success.

One question that still surrounds ‘Sugar’ is his ability to fight at a frenetic pace for more than twelve to fifteen minutes. Vera’s plan will be to drain O’Malley’s gas tank and suck the snap out of ‘Sugar’ then try to dominate him late.

The O’Malley’s plan will be to slice and dice Vera into a bloody pulp by employing constant side to side movement, strike from angles and employ precision counterstriking as Vera attempts to work his way to attack.

Many believe O’Malley is in a favorable matchup here as the UFC takes advantage of his earning power/popularity, but I am not so sure I buy into this.

Vera must be taken seriously in a bout I handicap to be closer than the betting lines indicate.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -165

Benoit St. Denis -215 vs. Dustin Poirier +185 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

St. Denis is a decorated former French first military paratrooper who is huge for the weight class, he is a black belt in Judo and has torn through the organization by winning all four of his victories via finish. His only blemish in the UFC was in his first bout, a fight he took on ultra short notice.

St. Denis, ranked twelfth in the lightweight division opened as a -140 favorite in this fight and has been pounded to the current -215 based on his destructive performances albeit against athletes ranked outside of the top fifteen in the division.

Poirier, the third ranked athlete in the division is the shorter fighter in this matchup, he will be giving away an inch of reach and is seven years older than the ferocious Frenchman.

Poirier possesses a wealth of UFC experience. He has a sturdy wrestling base, brilliant striking acumen, deft footwork and has been in with the absolute elite of the division.

Poirier trains at Florida’s ATT gym in Coconut Creek so he can compete at home without the complexity of having to travel. As well he will command the crowd in this war.

When this fight opened, I was astonished that St. Denis came the favorite and I am more perplexed that he has been bet into this current price. It is my judgement that recency bias is heavily influencing the current betting line toward the Frenchman.

Based on the current betting line it is my position that Poirier is being massively disrespected in this fight.

Once this bout begins Poirier will have to deal with the ferocity, power and immediate aggression of St. Denis who has never competed in a headline fight, nor has he ever prepared for or fought in a five-round battle.

I handicap Poirier to have superior fight IQ which cannot be overlooked here, the defensive prowess, patience and the deft striking to systematically break down St. Denis over time. Time, I believe, is the fulcrum of this fight and I am certain Poirier understands this.

It is my position that St. Denis is rushing into competition with an elite mixed martial artist well to quickly than is warranted.

I am committed to betting Poirier in this spot but will continue to monitor this number while it is on the rise to capture the best price advantage on the underdog who I handicap to in fact be the favorite.

Saturday night I believe Poirier awards St. Denis his PhD. in MMA!

Poirier +185 or better

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. -240 Over.

Curtis Blaydes -110 vs. Jailton Almeida -110 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Seventh ranked Almeida is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant who has ascended the heavyweight rankings in abbreviated time.

He is lightning fast for a man that competes at 245lbs, he is extremely durable and has the single-minded approach to haul opponents down to the mat then discover a way to clasp onto an appendage and snap it.

Almeida is shy in size, weight, and UFC experience and as capable as he is with his submission prowess, his offensive/defensive striking is mediocre and in need of much development.

In Blaydes we have the fifth ranked athlete in the division who enters this fight with a complete mixed martial arts arsenal. Blaydes has power and speed in his hands, he is a world class wrestler, and, in this bout, he will own substantial size, reach, and experience advantages.

Blaydes’ challenges in previous bouts revolve around the fragility of his face.

Athlete’s that are able to bash Blaydes beak early in fights often find success but, in this bout, Blaydes height, weight, reach and experience should put him in position to batter Almeida on the feet then transition to wrestling where he the sizable wrestler will reign damage on the smaller grappler from top position.

In the world of mixed martial arts, it is accepted that world class wrestling is kryptonite to excellent BJJ practitioners. It is exactly this formula that puts Blaydes in position to shine come Saturday night.

Blaydes -110

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -150

The GambLou Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT.

Look for my full set of releases there.

I will also appear Friday 6:30AM PT on VSiN’s Follow the Money program where I will share my best releases. Tune up then tune in!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

 

This week the UFC travels to Mexico City, Mexico for its Fight Night production where the main event features a rematch of Flyweight athletes Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval.

This card offers thirteen bouts eleven of which feature Mexican fighters who find themselves in favorable matchups. There are no athletes on this fight card weighing more than lightweight 155lbs. and all but one matchup is lined at 2.5 total rounds.

Mexico City with its altitude, the larger 30’ octagon and smaller statured athletes may make for a plethora of decisions?

Last week Rober Whittaker shrugged off a vicious head kick late in round one to earn a decision win over Paolo Costa in the co main event. Whittaker’s win pushed my results this year to 2-3 + .85u

Let’s enhance that bottom line with this week’s release.

Brandon Moreno -250 vs. Brandon Royval +200 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Royval, who trains at elevation in Colorado arrives at this main event fresh off a five round unanimous decision loss to current champion Alexandre Pantoja last December.

Royval, a southpaw will have height and reach advantages over Moreno, the former champion of the division. Royval’s been able to conquer all the division’s contenders save for the two elite talents in current champion Pantoja and Moreno who just lost his title to Pantoja a few months ago.

To break through and earn a third crack at Pantoja will not be an easy task understanding that the Mexican fight crowd, a voracious one at that will be whole heartedly supporting Moreno, Mexico’s first ever UFC champion.

Royval’s strengths are his unusual lengthy frame, his ability to move in unorthodox, unpredictable fashion and his determination to finally break through and defeat one of the two most dominant flyweights in the division’s history.

It was in November of 2020 when these two first tussled and Royval, a black belt in BJJ had to take a difficult loss because he injured his shoulder and was unable to continue. Royval has improved drastically since their first bout, and he has worked diligently to earn this opportunity realizing a 3-2 record since that defeat with both losses coming at the hands of Pantoja.

In Moreno we have the former champion and the pride of Mexico. Moreno is also a black belt in BJJ but he is also a deft boxer with the standard Mexican granite chin.

Moreno’s coming off a dynamically close split decision loss to Pantoja this past July and it seems clear that the victor here will get another crack at the current champion.

While Moreno’s giving up height and length to Royval, he owns a wealth of championship, five round main event experience. He’s also a year younger than his foe and he’ll have hordes of feverous fans fueling his fury.

Where Royval is unpredictable and flamboyant with his strikes, flying knees and kicks, Moreno is systematic in his approach to working the body then taking the head. This will be a terrific clash of styles.

Both men are competent on the feet, but it is Moreno who possesses the more complete wrestling/grappling attack and I do believe we will see him exercise that ability in this bout. Crowding the longer, taller Royval together with forcing him backwards and into defending takedowns will go a long way in usurping the energy from the Coloradan.

If there is a chink in the Moreno armor, it may be that he has been in numerous wars since these two last fought. Royval’s overall improvement coupled with his ability to compete at elevation will be telling in his chances to get his hand raised in this bout.

In a fight that I believe goes to decision, this week’s release:

Fight starts round 4 -175

Round props selection at DraftKings

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -140

Manuel Torres -185 vs. Chris Duncan +155 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This is the only bout on this slate lined at 1.5Rds with the under is priced -200. From the total we may imply that this fight is going to be a banger and from my handicap that inference would be completely correct.

In this one, Duncan 11-1 ships in from Scotland although he has been training in Florida’s ATT for weeks, a gym where there are at least five top fifteen ranked lightweights in the world for him to take rounds against.

Duncan is tough, durable and possesses wrestling acumen though he prefers to situate himself in the center of the cage, stand wide and zing hooks, crosses, and kicks at opponents with the singular goal of cracking them unconscious.

Duncan’s defensive abilities are my biggest issue with his fighting as takes 3.8 significant strikes per minute which is something extremely dangerous against this opponent.

Torres, 14-2 is the local, he conditioned to training at Mexico City’s extreme elevation and while he is more than willing to trade hooks, his strikes tend to be straighter, then supplemented with damaging elbows and knees right up the middle.

Torres has not seen the second round of a mixed martial arts fight since 2018 as he is a pure cold-hearted finisher yet his ability to compete in a long, tough, grueling battle is a justifiable concern.

Once the fight begins, it is my judgement that it is in Duncan’s best interest to wrestle the Mexican up in this fight to sap him of his energy then take advantage of him in the later rounds.

For Torres, he will attack Duncan from the opening bell, but he MUST control his distance and make certain in his zeal to destroy that he does not rush into a Duncan takedown for Torres has little to no ability to wrestle in any capacity.

In a fight where I expect both athletes to ‘put it on’ their opponent it is the durability and perseverance of Duncan that forces me to believe that this total offers value to the over.

Torres opened -155 in this bout, he dipped to -120 when I released him on my Monday ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast and now his price has now escalated to the current -175.

My handicap of this bout is that it goes over 1.5 Rds. while my conservative nature says to use the prop, “Fight starts round 2”, however that prop has not been put up on the DraftKings menu yet, so I will hold off as my deadline calls.

Lean Over 1.5 but will wager “Fight starts round 2”. I expect that price to have a plus sign next to it once released….

My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops midday Friday and is accessible at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming