Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Drowned Sugar?

UFC 292 takes place this week from Boston, MA. The thirteen-bout fight card is rife with competitive matchups and it features two, five round world championship title bouts.

Last week favorites realized a 9-4 result making favorites on the year: 194-99-14 or 63% which is about average for a typical UFC year. Last year’s 67.5% favorite result appears to be just an outlier.

Aljamain Sterling -260 vs. Sean O’Malley +210 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

There are layers to this bout but whittled down to its most common denominator what we have here in Sterling is an elite all world grappler/wrestler who is an effective striker, he’s massive for the division and with his size comes incredible strength supplemented by cardio that is seemingly unending.

Sterling’s one of the most lethal bantamweight fighters in UFC history. He’s been in with the absolute elite of the division and has cleaned them all, he’s extremely intelligent, focused and he arrives swelling with confidence based on who he has defeated and who he is facing Saturday.

In second ranked O’Malley we have a long, tall athlete who effectively controls space/distance by utilizing his athleticism and fluidity of movement. O’Malley will be the younger, longer, quicker athlete in the cage Saturday.

Once this fight begins O’Malley’s unique fighting style will be on display. He’ll flow and parry to create striking angles. His use of unorthodox timing to try to stun, surprise and bewilder the incoming Sterling with straight strikes and kicks.

O’Malley’s a more singularly versed mixed martial artist despite the fact that he’s trained extensively on his take down defense and ability to get back to his feet.

O’Malley acknowledges openly that his priority in this bout is to absolutely NOT allow Sterling to clasp onto him, press him against the fence and by all means O’Malley is aware that he must not allow Sterling to drag this fight to the canvas.

If and when he does find himself there, he must be able to return to his feet or this will be a short night.

For Sterling, he will want to take this fight right to O’Malley and in measured, steady, aggressive fashion muscle him backwards and force him to exert his energy defending and evading as opposed to flowing and striking.

The Sterling camp believes that as the fight wears on, O’Malley, who has never been five full rounds and in fact has had cardio issues late in three round bouts, will begin to wane and as he does, Sterling will begin to press more.

Sterling’s focus is to systematically usurp the energy from O’Malley then in the late third or championship rounds when the kid is gassed and gored, find a way to take his back then choke him into unconsciousness.

O’Malley’s camp realizes (rightfully so) that Sterling cuts massive amounts of weight to make 135lbs. Further, they in conjunction with the UFC cooked up the idea that this fight should take place immediately on the heels of Sterling’s dominant title defense against Henry Cejudo in June!

Sterling and camp feel pressured into the very quick turn around here and have stated that the result of this will be that he’ll take it out on O’Malley who Sterling states is in this position only because of his ‘Dana privilege’.

Privileged or not, these two tussle Saturday and without question the weigh-ins are of ultra-importance in this one so I’ll hold off until later this week to make any position on this bout.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -165

Points: Sterling -5.5 -130

Zhang Weili -310 vs. Amanda Lemos +250 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.) title

Champion Zhang won the title back in her last fight against then champion Carla Esparza. In this her second stint as champion it’s my belief that it will take something quite impressive to defeat her.

Zhang may be the most complete, fully equipped mixed martial artist in the organization. She’s intelligent, a workaholic who lives in the gym. She’s strong as an ox, fast as lightning and tough as a six-dollar steak.

In Brazilian Lemos we have an effective power striker who is forward pressing, aggressive and offensive. Eleven of her thirteen wins have been via the finish because she’ able to keep fights standing. Her take down defense is formidable based on the incredible power in her torso and legs. This allows Lemos to keep fights on the feet where her ferocity, might and power translate into advantage, finishing advantage.

When this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch how Zhang decides to usurp some of the zip from Lemos. Does she do that by counter striking, does she try to wrestle her up?

Either way it’s my judgement that Lemos has about six and a half to seven minutes of fight ending threat in her and it’s in these first minutes that Zhang must be wary and respect.

For Zhang, she needs to ensure that she takes this bout into the second round and beyond for even Zhang with her granite jaw has been slept and a fresh firing Lemos can put anyone in the division’s lights out with one elbow, kick or fist.

Zhang’s ability to use her fight intelligence, employ her full fight arsenal supplemented by her extreme athleticism must be used together to force Lemos to effort early in this fight so that Zhang can go offensive on the Brazilian finisher later as she begins to slow.

Provided Zhang does not run into something early I handicap this bout to be styled much to her favor and I look for Zhang to eventually finish the brazen Brazilian brute.

Zhang via finish -120 (DraftKings)

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Under -175 after opening -140

Points: Zhang -5.5 -195

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday AM across all pod platforms. My final UFC 292 releases can be accessed there!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: Accounting for profitability

Last week in the UFC Favorites ran 9-4 putting them at 194-99-14 this year or 63%.

GambLou ‘Bout Business results after a modest return last week of just under one unit stands:

66-66 +17.48u 13% ROI (+127)

This week UFC 292 comes live from Boston, MA Saturday 3:30pm PST. I’ll have complete breakdowns up Friday morning on the ‘Bout Business Podcast!

Tune up the Tune in!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV78 Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Batalha das lendas Brasileiras

This week’s Fight Night will be the last event from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas for a few weeks as the organization readies itself for a worldwide tour over the course of the next month.

Meanwhile on this slate we have twelve scheduled matchups featuring athletes from 115lbs to the 265lb heavyweights with the main event a welterweight bout between two decorated Brazilian mixed martial artists.

Favorites in the UFC are realizing a 63% success rate thus far in 2023 and we fought ourselves back into profitability last week with the main event wager of Over 3.5Rds. -140 as Sandhagen and Font went to decision.

2023 profitability: 13-14 + 0.15u

Rafael Dos Anjos -120 vs. Vicente Luque +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

RDA is the ninth ranked lightweight (155lbs.) in the organization but in this scrap, he’s stepping up in weight class to face his countryman Luque.

RDA, 32-14 has a wealth of fight experience in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. He’s a well versed mixed martial artist as witnessed by the fact that he owns a fourth-degree black belt in BJJ as well he’s a Black prajied in Muay Thai.

RDA’s faced elite competition throughout his career and although he is thirty-eight years old, he can still perform and compete with world class mixed marital artists.

Last December RDA competing at welterweight, a division he is 5-4 in looked crisp in taking ‘Bam Bam’ Barbarena down to the mat for a submission win in the second round. He looked like the faster, quicker more skilled fighter that night but he faces an opponent well more dangerous than the singularly dimensioned Barbarena come this weekend.

Fellow Brazilian Vicente Luque is a cold finisher decorated with his own black belt in BJJ and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva. Ranked tenth in the welterweight division he arrives the legitimately sized welterweight, focused, driven and desperate after losing his last two bouts.

Luque’s seven years the younger man, he’s a couple inches taller and he’ll hold a 5” reach advantage in this bout on top of that, thirteen of Luque’s fourteen UFC wins have been via the finish!

Luque, is the far more dangerous, lethal striker between these men so it’s my belief that RDA will look to force this fight into the clinch, then pressed against the cage. At that point RDA must do all he can to take Luque to the mat where he may gain top position and performs his most effective work.

Material to this handicap is the fact that Luque enters this bout after being diagnosed with ‘brain hemorrhaging’ as a result of his last bout against Goeff Neal.

What we have been told is that Luque’s had the appropriate time off and is ‘medically cleared’ to compete per the rules mandated by the UFC which I believe must be relatively stringent given their exposure to litigation.

So, an important aspect when considering any wager on this fight is the physical, mental and emotional condition Luque hauls with him into this bout. This is something I’ll be looking closely at/for in the fighter interviews Wednesday.

On his game Luque is an aggressive, forward pressing, ’walk his opponent down’ buzzsaw of a power striker and that’s what I expect him to present once the bell for round one rings as he’s certain to yearn to get ack into the win column to improve upon his already top ten ranking and keep his potential title hopes alive.

Luque’s size, the fact he’s the legitimate welterweight power striker and the intense forward pressure he delivers into his bouts all signify advantage in this bout provided there are no lingering effects from that last bout.

For RDA I believe his tactics must revolve around forcing the proud, seasoned warrior into a mistake that may lead to RDA transferring this fight to the floor.  It’s from top position where RDA is most dangerous and it’s there where he stands the best chance at upsetting Vicente Luque.

At the end of the day, I lean to Luque.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145

Hakeem Dawodu -220 vs. Cub Swanson +190 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main event

Swanson is a grizzled UFC veteran with a professional record of 28-13.

The thirty-nine-year-old warrior is a black belt in BJJ and has competed in three descending weight divisions during his storied career, lightweight (155lbs) then featherweight (145lbs) and in his last bout, bantamweight (135lbs).

What’s worthy of mention is that after getting decisively finished in his last outing at bantamweight last fall Swanson is returning to featherweight in a change that at Cub’s age seems a move of desperation.

A precision striker with a well-rounded fight arsenal Swanson has shown the ability to out skill, out strategize and out execute lower-level UFC talent but he struggles mightily with competition that is top twenty worthy.

Dawodu, much like his foe Swanson, comes from the mean streets where his outward aggression was steering him straight to the ‘Graybar hotel’.

At fourteen though Dawodu was exposed to Muay Thai fighting as a release for his deep seeded anger and he excelled in the gym realizing a 42-5 record as an amateur then a 6-0 tally as a professional.

In this bout Dawodu will be the younger man by six years as well the thicker, larger, more explosive athlete who will hold a 3” reach advantage. He’ll look to use his footwork and length to maintain distance so he can club Cub on his way inside to engage.

Cub meanwhile may want to mute Dawodu’s power by clasping, clinching, pressing against the fence and wrestling. Swanson’s ability to force the younger more violent man to expend energy early and allow Dawodu’s arms to swell and slow seem the more logical approach to him getting his hand raised.

Dawodu appears to be in a favorable spot in this, a fight that can showcase his youth, speed, power and aggression.

Dawodu opened -325 for this bout which was hammered down to the current price of Dawodu -220.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -145

This week’s release:

Luque/RDA Over 2.5Rds. -205 to Dawodu -220; parlay +114

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC card. Get it across all podcast platforms!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability

Money Morning: Profitability report

UFC receipts for the weekend amount to a 3-2 result for a return of +2.59 units.

Yearly UFC profits are +16.63 units for a 13%ROI and an average win of +122.

We’re rapidly approaching the NFL season, to date I have released one season win total and there will be more coming as we approach the beginning of the regular season.

Serious NFL investors are urged to check my ‘NFL consulting’ page to determine if my NFL service may be a fit as a supplement for your own profitable approach to the NFL season.

I have some really cool news surfacing soon. Stay tuned right here for a strong independent voice to Profitable Sports Gaming!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Nashville Sandhagen vs. Font: Rocky chop!

Justin Gaethje captured the UFC’s BMF title with last week’s dynamic head kick knockout of Justin Poirier.

Favorites ran 7-3-1 on the card and are realizing a 62.7%-win rate in 2023 down a full 5% from last year’s obtuse 67 plus percent!

My release of Justin Poirier ITD +130 leaves me on the wrong end of profitability for the first time since I began writing these columns some five years ago as results are 12-14 <.85u>.

A major correction is on the way.

Cory Sandhagen -265 vs. Rob Font +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked Font steps into this fight on short notice which is as impressive for him as it is that Sandhagen had accepted this bout originally with Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov, a Russian vice grip fell out of the fight due to injury so now Sandhagen faces a stylistically different athlete in Font.

With Font we have a fighter who arrives off of presenting young up and coming bantam Adrien Yanez with his PhD. in MMA as Font dominated the younger man in his last outing.

Font’s a slick boxer with a piston jab, good footwork and extreme durability, a brown belt in BJJ compliments his fight arsenal.

At thirty-six, on short notice and giving up three inches of height in this bout Font will have his work cut out for him Saturday.

Third ranked Sandhagen, a psychology major from Boulder is an accomplished kickboxer with a brown belt in BJJ. He prepares for a different challenge in striker Font than grappler Nurmagomedov but Sandhagen’s should familiar with elite striking adversaries as he’s tussled with the likes of Champion Aljo Sterling, Petr Yan, Song Yadong and other elite talent at the weight class.

Once this bout begins, I look for Sandhagen’s high fight IQ, his extremely well-rounded fight arsenal complete with footwork and cardio to simply be a little too much for a tough, grinding, unrelenting forward pressure striker like Font.

This fight as I handicap it revolves around cardio, striking volume and efficient movement. These are all Sandhagen assets and this is where he holds the advantages.

Sandhagen opened -165 and has shot up in price making playing the props necessary in order to derive value from this fight.

Total in the fight: 4.5Rds. Under -120

Over 3.5 Rds -140 (alternate total DraftKings)

I believe this bout has decision written all over it.

Kyler Phillips -195 vs. Raoni Barcelos +165 bantamweight (135lbs.)

Barcelos is an athletic Braznlian athlete with black belt in BJJ, a solid wrestling base, heavy hands and ill intention. 1-3 in his last 4 fights, Barcelos has displayed an inconsistency that makes it hard to predict what fighter steps into the cage on any particular occasion.

Dangerous to start but uneven after early violence seems to best describe Barcelos.

Phillips arrives off a suspension so he battles inactivity besides the freakishly talented Barcelos.

Phillip’s wrestling base, cardio and durability are all assets but perhaps his biggest weapon is his intelligence. It’s here where I believe these athletes vary most.

Once this fight begins, Phillips will need to navigate through the damage and destruction that Barcelos is sure to offer early. However, once and if Phillips is able to weather that first five minutes of fury then it’s my judgement that he’ll be in position to use his cardio, wrestling and pressure late in order to suck the will from Raoni.

I’ll await props for this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday mid-day provided there is a UFC event. Look for us across all podcast platforms.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje II: Diamond in the tough

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday early PM PT.

This article was originally published on VSiN’s digital magazine 7/26

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 217 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division where second ranked Dustin Poirier faces third ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.

Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125 Middleweight (155lbs.) main event

I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.

What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized then that his ‘go for broke’ fight style, though entertaining for fans had to be refined and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division.

Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.

Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.

In Gaethje’s last fight we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight Gaethje displayed his fight evolution for he came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.

Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018 and to an extent I believe that to be true.

For Poirier there only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand has raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise, striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.

Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him THE threat to the title in my opinion should he get his hand raised here.

A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.

Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 take downs per fight and he defends 63% of takedown attempts.

A well-rounded approach.

Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38 but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no take down attempts in his bouts though he’s got a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns.

A singularly dimensioned approach.

Both men, after losing to Oliveira had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.

It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the ‘natural born brawler’ in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and ‘Poirier-like’ in his approach.

My question, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?

This fight opened Poirier -125

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -130

This total surprised me based on the fact that these two went a ferocious four plus rounds in their first fight.

Each man seems to be entering this fight more dangerous as mixed martial artists than when they first fought despite the five-year gap in bouts.

The point spread of ‘Poirier -5.5 points -105’ most surprises me as this seems to indicate a relatively one-sided fight favoring Poirier.

I handicap this fight as very tight early but as the minutes elapse wears Poirier’s speed, precision, power, cardio and footwork will be the differentiating factors in this bout.

Poirier via KO, Submission or DQ +130

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs. Alex Pereira +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Brazilian Pereira we last saw being KO’d By Israel Adesanya in their rematch at middleweight this past April after KO’ing the then champion in the fifth round of their first bout.

Pereira moves up to the 205lb. weight class for obvious reasons. He walks around at 225-230lbs. normally. The cut to 185 made him a monster to face on fight day but as Adesanya displayed this past April, that cut took too much away from the Brazilian stalwart thus this move up.

Weight class or not Pereira, a decorated, elite, world class kickboxer is relatively inexperienced in the MMA realm as his 7-2 record indicates.

He was profoundly powerful and dangerous at the middleweight level and his power will more than translate to light heavyweight.

What he may have issues with are the size of combatants he’ll face as well foe’s whose fight arsenal is equipped with world class grappling and wrestling are sure to provide Pereira with plenty of challenge for his area of improvement is surely grappling.

In ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, we have a relatively understated Polish killing machine trained in Judo, dangerous on his feet and decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Blachowicz has been in with the likes of Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira (Pereira’s coach and mentor) and Thiago Santos, so he’s prepared for structured, physical foes like Pereira.

What Blachowicz offers as his most valued asset in this fight is his well-rounded fight ability.

He can compete at a world class level anywhere this fight goes. Blachowicz’s certain edge in the grappling/wrestling department provide him the means to get his hand raised in this bout.

He’ll need to press and tax the Brazilian striker from the opening bell and try to back him up. Blachowicz does not benefit in any way by remaining at distance too long.

For Blachowicz, eliminating distance from Pereira, smothering him, clasping onto him, clinching then pressing him against the fence are signals he’s got the fight working by his parameters because the next move from fence is floor and once there this fight becomes Blachowicz’s to lose.

In summary, Blachowicz wants to fight forehead to forehead, then chest to chest while his Pereira must maintain distance in order to be effective with those long, vicious, damaging, knee’s, teeps, elbows and fists.

Blachowicz opened -145 for this fight because he is the experienced light heavyweight with more diverse weaponry. We’ve seen his price drop a bit leading into the week which in my estimation makes the Blachowicz side an interesting proposition.

Monitoring

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Under -185

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. All my final releases can be found there. I’ll also appear on VSiN’s ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday 5:30AM PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories General

Money Morning Profitability

This week UFC profitability took a hit although the deficit could have been much worse. GambLou ‘Bout Business results stood 1-5 -2.72u. Fortunately I felt the risk in both Diakiese and Herbert so the .5 unit outlays saved us some money.

The lone win was our Aspinall parlay but what goes unrecorded is the Daniel Marcos victory that sets us up with Jon Jones +117 in his upcoming title bout with stipe Miocic. Jones is currently -375 for that bout.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 59-58 +15.34u 13% ROI (+125)

I have released the first NFL Season total positions to clients.

Any interested NFL business people please hit the ‘NFL’ tab at the top of this webpage to see the opportunity I offer any interested in 2023 NFL profitability.

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Aspinall vs. Tybura: London flog

  • GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop this morning 10am PT ish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first bell for London England’s UFC Fight Night this Saturday rings at 12pm EST/9am PST stateside so be prepared fight enthusiasts.

Fifteen of the thirty athletes on this card are of English, Irish, Scottish, Spanish or French heritage, an important aspect to these bouts and only two fights feature fighters competing outside of Europe.

The last London fight card was this past March. On that card we witnessed welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his title against Kamau Usman but more importantly, we witnessed the European athletes succeed in 9 of their twelve bouts.

Many fight enthusiasts feel the UFC in its zeal to expand its product often presents certain local competitors’ ‘favorable’ matchups. You may include me in that many but with that said the potential advantage lies not in siding with the locals but on handicapping which one it will be that may falter!

Tom Aspinall -490 vs. Marcin Tybura +370 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Tenth ranked Polish heavyweight Tybura enters having won seven of his last eight bouts. A black belt in BJJ, Tybura is a threat in the clinch, pressing opponents against the fence and when he’s earned top position on the ground when he’s able to take the fight to the floor.

On his feet Tybura is somewhat deliberate, telegraphing and often hesitant to fire combinations choosing rather to maul, clasp and hug.

In this fight Tybura will be facing the most dangerous test of his career for fifth ranked Englishman Tom Aspinall, will be the taller, younger, quicker and more athletic big man in the cage.

However, Aspinall’s entering this fight off a knee injury loss to Curtis Blaydes last July.

It’s my belief that a year is the minimal amount of time a fighter would need to be 110% ready to fight again coming off an ACL. Aspinall’s recovery and performance will be scrutinized by the whole of the MMA community so it’s important for the young man to arrive prepared and ready for the firmest test of his career.

Aspinall if on his game is a deft moving, athletic, black belt in BJJ himself.

In fact, Aspinall’s dad is a black belt so mixed martial arts are what Aspinall was born into and we can only surmise that his preparation for this fight has him ready to perform.

I do have several questions in this fight though.

How does Aspinall move and maneuver especially early when he has been so lethal prior to this setback?

Will he be hesitant to fire, engage or initiate?

Can Tybura back Aspinall up and force the clinch and force Aspinall to hurl leverage and pressure on that injured leg?

Should Tybura force this fight to the floor and even gain top position, will he be able to hold authority over Aspinall who is trained with similar BJJ weaponry than he?

And the most important question which is critical to Tybura’s chances, what happens should Tybura be able to take this fight past two rounds?

Aspinall’s fought into the second round in only one of his last several bouts. It’s logical that Aspinall will try to finish his opponent early but what happens if he cannot get the durable tough Polish pugilist out of there in the first ten minutes?

For Tybura, it’s about taking Aspinall into the second round then deeper. Tybura must deploy forward pressure and use his durability to force Aspinall to defend, toil, then ideally tire.

Tybura knows his best opportunity in this fight outside of a flash spinning kick or KO of some form, is to force Aspinall to fight past the second round and take him where he has not been before. There Tybura may be able to test the Englishman’s cardio, his knee and ultimately his will.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -175

Lean Over

Chris Duncan -145 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +120 Lightweight (155lbs)

Each of these combatants were featured on the last London event. Each won their respective bouts.

While the short, squat Israeli Ashmouz proved to be explosive and powerful, the taller, longer Scotsman Duncan performed like an athlete that needs to develop some wrestling ability, refine his strike defense and increase his cardio.

It’s dangerous to consider positioning against a local European athlete competing in London town but in this case, I feel that Ashmouz, a fighter best judged by his abilities as opposed to his physique is in a strong position to soften Duncan’s body early then touch him up later in the fifteen-minute fight.

Ashmouz +130

Props later this week may prove interesting especially based on the total price below.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -175

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

Money Morning: Account or profit will never amount!

This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Bueno Silva: Devil wears Prado

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming