The GambLou.com 2024 Business report will be posted here Monday. Results for all Sporting investments win/loss, total earnings and ROI all provided.
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2024 GambLou.com Business report
UFC FN Tampa Covington vs. Buckley: Run for Covington
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the final UFC event of 2024, Fight Night Tampa Covington vs. Buckley.
This card is scheduled for 13 fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and main card 7pm PT.
Three of the 13 bouts feature larger 170lb men or larger and the thirty-foot cage will be employed.
Last week favorites continued their torrid tear by realizing a 12-2 result pushing chalk to 70.5% on the year.
I feel fortunate to have been able to derive profit through this run of chalk in 2024. Further, this column plans on being front and center when (and in my judgement it is only a matter of ‘when’), this favorite foray finally flails.
I am unable to grade last week’s Digital release of Volkov +285 as a winner despite the fact that he won that dad gummed fight. The judges awarded the decision to Cyril Gane in a result that was simply incorrect. I feel for these athletes as their career, their livelihood, their earnings all depend on judges most of whom are categorically incapable of understanding how to accurately grade UFC bouts. Choi +120 and Over -170 in that same Choi vs. Landwehr fight both cashed.
Into this final card, digital releases this year stand 28-26 +7.48u.
The next UFC card takes place January 11, with that in mind, this column will return January 7th with my breakdowns of the first fight slate of 2025.
Let’s Fight!
Joaquin Buckley -260 vs. Colby Covington +230 Welterweight (170lbs) main event
Buckley, from East St. Louis is the eighth ranked fighter in the division. He is short, squat, highly explosive, profusely powerful and he enters this fight with tremendous momentum.
Buckley opened a +145 underdog for this fight to his adversary Colby Covington, but the chalk changed from Covington to Buckley in short time.
The market seems to believe that Buckley is poised to conquer sixth ranked Covington.
Covington enters as a highly divisive figure. Many people hate his guts while others understand that his flakey UFC persona is simply an a schtick designed to allow him to play the heel while ratcheting up the eyeballs looking in to watch him be dominate or be pulverized.
In this fight It’s Covington who is the taller, longer athlete in the cage. He’ll have tremendous experience angle over Buckley as well he’s been in the cage with a far more stringent set off adversary than has his foe Saturday.
Covington’s wrestling ability can’t be matched for Buckley’s wrestling though developed is not on the same plane as is Covington’s. Covington uses volume striking to set up his wrestling while Buckley utilizes his wrestling to keep fights standing so he may enter the pocket and bludgeon his opponent with power strikes/kicks.
Buckley’s strikes have violent effects on his adversaries, he’s lightning quick and enters this fight having earned victory in his last five fights albeit against athletes that are not elite within the division.
Once this fight begins, it will be Buckley’s explosion and aggression that will be matched against Covington’s unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. Covington’s unending ability to compete 100% throughout twenty-five full minutes of war will be tested by the power and explosivity of Buckley’s strikes.
Explosive power against stamina and guile is how I view this fight and while Buckley is the younger, faster, more violent fighter, it is Covington whom I believe will force Buckley into the third round and beyond where ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all.’
Once this fight enters those later rounds, look for Covington’s guile, experience, wrestling and cardio to rule.
Covington +230
Total in this fight: 4.5Rounds Over -150
Daniel Marco -160 vs. Adrien Yanez +135 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
This has the makings to be one of the top battles in this last quarter of 2024.
Yanez, of Mexican descent is tough, durable, aggressive and enters this fight after getting back into the win column with a dominant performance over a game Vinicius Salvador.
Yanez’ father was a golden gloves boxer, so he grew up with a sturdy boxing base then at an early age added BJJ to his weaponry. He is currently a black belt in BJJ.
He fights Peruvian Daniel Marcos who enters this fight undefeated at 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC though that record should really be 4-0.
Marcos is very athletic, has fast, heavy hands and a deliberate leg numbing kicking attack. Each man’s faced a similar level competition. These two fight for ranking as the victor in this fight will be jettisoned into the top fifteen of an oh so very competitive bantamweight division.
Marcos must defend his undefeated mark while Yanez, who lost his undefeated record two fights back, is focused solely on taking the zero away from Marcos in dominating fashion.
Do not miss this battle.
The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -120
Joel Alvarez -350 vs. Drakkar Klose +295 Lightweight (155lbs)
Alvarez is your typical bully as he is oversized for lightweight but cuts dynamic amounts of weight in order to hold advantage over his adversaries in battles. He’ll be taller than Klose by four inches, he’s five years the younger man and he’ll hold a couple inch reach advantage in arms and legs.
A brown belt in BJJ with decent striking acumen Alvarez was delivered his PhD. In MMA three fights back when Armen Tsarukyan mopped the floor with him. Since that setback Alvarez defeated both Marc Diakiese and Elvis Brener, two formidable lightweight opponents.
In thirty-five-year-old Klose we have an athlete that explodes like a barrel packet tightly with dynamite. He’s more experienced than Alvarez and has faced solid competition on his way to this a foundational fight for him.
Early in this fight, Alvarez will attempt to maintain distance and strike with Klose cautiously then eventually try to lure him into some form of clasp in order to try to ground him and initiate the ground battle for seventeen of Alvarez’s wins professionally have come via submission.
For Klose, his strategy is clear, smother the longer taller Alvarez with unrelenting forward pressure. Back him up and batter his body with hooks, crosses, and knees. Klose must attach his forehead to Alvarez’s chest where his inside position will make it easy for him to heave heavy power shots to the taller man’s body then move to the chin. Klose has one job Saturday night, pressure Alvarez backwards.
‘Styles make fights’ and in this one the tell will be ‘distance.’ If Klose can manage this fight to a standing war in a phone booth he will win. Should Alvarez be able to clasp, clinch, and ground Klose the night will be a long one for Klose. Great clash of fighting styles.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150
Friday at midday PT the Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com. Access my final releases for this card there.
Thank you for reading and merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.
UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura: Japanese knee’s
This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.
T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.
This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.
2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.
Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.
Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title
Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.
He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.
Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.
In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.
Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.
Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.
Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.
Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.
In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.
This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135
Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)
Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.
Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.
In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.
For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.
Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.
Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.
Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.
Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.
Volkov +285
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300
Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.
Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.
‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.
In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.
Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.
In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!
As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.
Choi +120
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170
Heavy lean over
Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
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UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Goat race
Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.
The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.
UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.
Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.
Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.
Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.
Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title
Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.
Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.
Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.
In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.
Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.
He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’
Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.
Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.
We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.
Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.
Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.
It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.
At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.
I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.
Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event
We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!
In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.
In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.
Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.
Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.
He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.
The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?
To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.
Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.
I believe Oliveria earns victory again.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165
Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.
69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.
Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.
So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.
Three Fighter Parlay
Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.
Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.
Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.
1.47u returns 1.0u
Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.
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UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force
Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.
The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.
Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.
This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.
Underdog correction?
I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.
Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.
Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.
In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.
His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.
In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.
Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.
There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.
Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.
So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205
Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)
Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.
He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.
Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.
If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380
Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.
Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.
A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.
Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.
Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.
Trocoli +155 .5u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital
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NFL Week 10 Musing and Abusing
NFL observations from a betting perspective
The Arizona Cardinals should be credited for their efforts and results so far this year. Let’s see how the second half transpires but this team is reacting well to head coach Jonathan Gannon.
Injuries seem high? Yes, because pre-season work effort is minimal. It’s simple.
Saquon Barkley’s play this past weekend was a perfect example of an athlete training for any condition then when confronted with danger, allows instinct and athletic prowess to rule. He never had a chance to think about or set up that move, it was pure instinct.
De’Von Achane is a talented player, and the Dolphins have a group of athletes on offense that can dominate provided they are not competing in inclement weather, and they have a full complement of team weaponry. That defense however is horrendous.
Quietly the Eagles are 6-2 and have not put it all together yet.
There are many teams that are still putting it together. They include the Hawks, Rams, Buc’s, Chargers, Cards, Commies and Steel.
11 of 32 teams have 2 or 3 wins after week 9…. That’s pretty telling results for a league striving to create parity at all costs.
Houston plus 3.5 against the red-hot Lions this week? Yep. This is the first home game for the Texans in a month and the Lions arrive off an emotional win against division rival Minnesota last week. Great spot for Houston.
UFC 308 Topuria vs. Holloway: Spanish fly
Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates hosts this week’s UFC 308 event where a full crowd, a large 30’ octagon and twenty-eight elite athletes are scheduled to compete for pride, evolution toward a top ten ranking and championship belts.
Of the fourteen featured fights nine fights take place from welterweight (170lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.) so fight fans will not only see highly ranked athletes competing but they’ll see large, agile, ultra dangerous ones compete at that!
Last week Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez displayed that “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight rather the size of fight in the dog” as he systematically broke down the hulking Brazilian striker Michel Pereira and finished him in the fifth round. That victory pushed this column’s profitability to 24-21 +8.65u to date.
Ilia Topuria -235 Champion vs. Max Holloway +195 Featherweight (145lbs.) title
For the last several years, Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski have Championed the featherweight division. Volkanovski was an unfortunate yet guilty party to rushing back for a title defense some months ago to defend it against Topuria and the German born athlete fighting out of Spain KO’d the Aussie for committing the error.
Since that fight in February of this year Topuria has taken every parade route available to celebrate his title while throwing barbs at fellow featherweights he proclaims to be unworthy of facing him.
One of those happens to be former featherweight champion Max Holloway, Topuria’s opponent Saturday. Max is convinced that Topuria’s been ducking him with the help of the UFC and to be honest I believe there’s some truth to the accusation.
Topuria is a most electrifying champion who holds deft boxing ability and footwork, he has power emitting from every appendage. He is twenty-seven, a black belt in BJJ and was also raised with a stout Grego Roman wrestling base at an incredibly early age. It’s this facet to Topuria’s fight arsenal that provides him with the unfailing confidence that no matter where a fight goes, he’ll hold advantage.
Violent tools, youthful confidence, and tremendous belief/momentum Topuria totes into this tussle with an all-time great.
Max Holloway is thirty-two but has been competing against the top five of this division for years. Besides competing against the elite, Holloway, a brown belt in BJJ himself, brings four inches of height advantage into this fight which will provide him with a substantial edge provided Holloway can keep the fight standing and at distance.
Once the fight begins Max will use his footwork to maintain distance and apply a steady dose of volume combination striking/kicking onto the incoming attacker ‘El Matador’ who will be the forward charging, raging bull in this fight Saturday despite his nickname.
Topuria will trust the plan of attack most effective against Holloway which was perfected by Volkanovski’s approach to be the Hawaiian.
A steady dose of forward pressure striking, deft head movement and evasion of strikes and takedowns strategically implemented to keep the taller Holloway guessing.
Topuria camp understands that Holloway has never been finished and they’ll surely be looking to change that narrative.
Holloway for his part must be a businessperson in the cage and his attack must appear much more clinical in nature. He must ensure he maintains a calm demeanor for any pointing to the mat and toe-to-toe throwdown offers will not produce a favorable outcome against this younger, quicker, more profusely powerful Topuria.
This fight has every indication of being one of the most action-packed fights of the year and I’ll have more to say about it as the week wears on.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Round Under -125
Kamzat Chimaev -250 vs. Robert Whittaker +210 Middleweight (185lbs) co main event
Chimaev is a Russian with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess who fights out of Sweden. He hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.
He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential early in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division.
Chimaev’s two middleweight wins were against one Gerald Meerschaert who is a legitimate athlete fighting outside of the top fifteen, then Kamaru Usman the former welterweight title holder who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close decision.
Whittaker’s a bona-fide middleweight elite.
He’s ranked third in a division where he’s held the title previously and one that is as competitive as there is in the UFC.
A black belt in hapkido, a black belt in karate and a black belt in BJJ, Whittaker’s competed against every form of middleweight threat, body type, fighting specialty and nationality,
Save for a loss to current champion DuPlessis, which was an off night for Whittaker and two title losses to then champion Adesanya, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years and now he faces an opponent that’s not competed in the octagon since last October.
When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from Chimaev.
Provided Whittaker can overcome Chimaev’s early overtures he’ll be in a great position to navigate this fight into the second round where he may begin to turn the tables on the wild maniacal front running Chimaev.
Whittaker must survive the first then in the second round he must tax the fatiguing Russian and direct him into the shadow realm where the effects of early round high output fighting can fatigue and conquer the most formidable fighter.
Whittaker has a depth of experience; he’s faced every form of threat in the division, and he’s focused on a title return. His drive, patience, plan and most importantly his legitimate middleweight strength will over the course of this fight begin to sap the young brash Chimaev of his striking effectiveness then eventually his ability to fend off an opponent in Whittaker who will turn up the intensity of his strikes each minute until Chimaev cracks.
I expect it to be sometime in the second round that Whittaker begins to dominate this fight and eventually shuts this bloated welterweight down via stoppage.
Whittaker +210
Chimaev must prove he is able to compete with the Middleweight elite.
Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -125
This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available early Friday AM since these fights from Abu Dhabi begin at 7am PT.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
GambLou.com
It’s Business
NFL Musing and Abusing: Week 7 style
“I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd, when they said, sit down, I stood up”!
Springsteen ‘Growing up”
Sport is cruel.
I wish to offer prayers and best wishes to young Aiden Hutchison. The violence those men deal with daily is beyond most people’s understanding. To see his leg snapped like a twig Sunday only exemplifies how lucky the few are that get to compete at such a high level. NFL athletes undertake extreme risk on a daily basis.
Davante Adams is going to resuscitate the Jets! I’m not so sure I believe that… the Jets need horses on the O-Line in my estimation, but Adams can’t but help that run game a bit… time will tell with these Jets, Jets, Jets.
One thing’s for certain, as there IS time for them to right that downbound train.
How ‘bout them Cowboys?
Jerry Jones is doing to the Cowboy’s what the children of Papa Bear Halas have done to the Bears. No doubt intentions were and are ‘admirable’ but institutional prowess and execution are flawed. When ‘one’ does not belong in the football business, it shows!
The best news for the Pokes and the Bears? There exists….the Browns and the Bears and Boys ain’t quite there…..yet!
Don’t think I have forgotten about the Raiders!
What Al’s son has done to the culture of that team is unfortunate. Sure, the franchise, like that in Dallas and Chicago even Cleveland are appreciable wealth assets but what about pride? What about serving your people? What about showing up with some dad gummed civic pride for the fans?
Philly? They got head coaching issues and what’s about to boil over there may not be pretty. Someone in the NFC East better watch out for the Commies.
NFC South was supposed to be the cheap suits, yet it seems like they have two legit playoff contenders there.
I hope Tagovailoa can play and maintain full health again. I was lucky enough to be in a huddle from 1967 to 1993 and I understand the importance of team for men of that age. Everlasting bonds man.
Jet’s fire Salah. Unfair, hail yes but it IS the nature of this profession. Salah will be back as soon as he wants to say yes to the many offers to D Coordinate he’ll receive.
Bills, Vikes, Lions, Pack, Texans, Chiefs, Hawks and Steel….Super Bowl winner comes from that group from this week 7 perspective.
The Jags zigged when they should have Jagged. Young QB who entered the NFL with accolades is simply not performing to his reputation…that said, the front office geniuses dumped WR talent this offseason like it was cancerous?
I see some games this week that offer great opportunity based on the reactions (as in over) from last week…. Week 6 was a public slaying of the bookmakers capped off by the Bills cover MNF for the cherry on top.
While I won’t ‘cry no tears’ for the bookies, I’ll assure you that there will be some public confident bet’s coming in on the NFL this week.
UFC LV98 Royval vs. Taira: Flat Taira?
This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.
The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.
Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.
Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.
Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event
Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.
Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.
Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.
In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.
Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?
The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.
While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125
Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event
These two were scheduled to fight July 20th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.
Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.
Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.
Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.
In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.
Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.
Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265
Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)
The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!
Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.
After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.
In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.
Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.
Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.
Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155
Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.
Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.
While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.
Carpenter -190*
Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135
GambLou.com
It’s Business
UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree: Ovince Von Flue?
Salt Lake City, UT is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.
Early Preliminary action begins at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 7pm PT.
This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged thirty-six or older.
The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.
Lat week I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u
Alex Pereira -450 vs. Kalil Roundtree +385 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title
Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.
The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the lady’s bantamweight title fight for this event and they went directly to Pereira as he is as popular with fight fans as he is lethal inside the cage against opponents.
Since July of 2022 Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz which together is proof that this monster is able to compete for a full twenty-five minutes and against absolute elite level light heavyweight competition.
In Roundtree we get the eighth ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists and committed to an aggressive dose of leg bludgeoning kicks.
Roundtree’s level of competition faced wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed so his step up in competition is substantial if I may be understated.
Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira who will be three inches the taller man in the cage and will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.
Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs so there is no real quandary in the fact that Pereira came -450 at opening for this fight.
This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.
Roundtree has intelligence, he has power and a forceful will, so we know he’s coning into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -145
Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title
Pena is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022 which also happened to be the last time Pena competed in the octagon.
Pena’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue blet in BJJ Pena backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.
In Rocky Pennington we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ earned the title in a dynamic win over Myra Buena Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in similar grinding fashion.
Once this fight begins it will be Pena who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash damaging strike upon the Champion.
As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington as she must eliminate Pena’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as is the champion.
Standing Pena will hold advantage in this championship fight while in the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight in order for her to hold advantage.
‘Styles make fights’ as Angel Dundee would say and in this championship fight where the bout takes place will be indicative to who is in control of this fight.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260
Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince St. Preux +250 light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
Spann, thirty-three is 6’5” tall is a front running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division however after the first round or so Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.
Spann’s power, cardio and more importantly he confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. It’s my opinion that his obstacles are mental for the man is tall, long, and violently natured.
In St. Preux we have an athlete that at 41 seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.
St. Prez’s more well rounded as a fighter for his striking is better than average and his forward pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout St. Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s one Kennedy Nzechukwu in an oh so close decision.
Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by St. Preux and Ovince must force this fight into the second round and beyond in order to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.
St. Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.
Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night and it’s my position that St. Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.
St. Preux +250
.5 unit investment
Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over
Lean over for St. Preux best interest!
Friday mid-day my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.