Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Ring that Belal

The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.

This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.

As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.

On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.

So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.

There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.

Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.

Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.

A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.

In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.

What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.

Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.

At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.

Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.

Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.

Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.

Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.

JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.

While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.

The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.

Muhammad -180

This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.

Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200

Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.

Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.

Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.

It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.

Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.

I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.

Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310

Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u

Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)

Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!

Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.

Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.

The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.

I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.

Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

All Circa pricing

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, Uncategorized

Kentucky Derby: Brutha Shue spew’s for Lou

My Brother Shue, a big brother/role model since 1977 University of Arizona days, returns again this year to offer GambLou.com Nag enthusiasts angles on the fastest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the breakdown Shue (in black ink) sent with his permission to share!

Hey bro – here’s my take, almost final unless one of my nags bail, here we go:

First, there have been two defections, the #4, RODRIGUEZ and the #10, GRANDE have been scratched and BAEZA #21 is in and he will be ridden by Flavian Prat.

The track and weather for Louisville looks to be sloppy, just as it was for the Kentucky Oaks.  We’ll need a hot pace in the Derby so in order for my closers to have a shot.

Attached are my final numbers for the Derby. (Shue included many charts which I did not publish in this column)

My opinion hasn’t changed since the PP draw – I’m still on #17 SANDMAN (6-1), but my fear with him, is that as he comes from almost dead last, and as he circles that final turn 8, 9 paths wide, he’ll be lugging in, as he likes to do, and perhaps get DQ’d a spot or two for interference.

#18 PUBLISHER (30-1) will effort to pass ten or so rivals to jet to the lead, and Steve Asmussen will win his first Kentucky Derby! (Shue’s met Steve Assmussen several times and is a big fan so take that with a grain o salt)

I also like #3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1).  Not a fan of synthetic to dirt, but he has, apparently, taken to the dirt pretty well.  Although never really raced in ‘hot’ company before, just maybe sitting way back, he won’t be noticed and then Machado pushes the button on the final turn and off he goes.  He could surprise for sure.

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) will be in my exotics.  You just cannot ignore his closing times.  My worry on him is that in his last three races he’s only been in company with four other runners.  And the Derby comes with mucho traffico!  He will stalk the leaders IMO and stay close, hoping to get a smooth trip.

I am also going to include  the #17, SOVERIGNTY.  He is also a deep closer who has an excellent shot to win.

I think the pace will be hot, as in 22 & change if not quicker.  I mean, there are literally 5 nags who like and need the front, the 1, 4, 5, 12 & 20, geez!  No walking the dog up front on Saturday IMO.

For me, I take a cautious approach to trifecta’s on derby day so I’ll use a $1.00 6 nag Tri box for $120.00

3-7-8-14-17-18

Unlikely yet fun…

Thanks Shue, I love ya man

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Des Moines Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Nickal plated nine trigger

Des Moines, IA. hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo event. This slate has twelve scheduled bouts to be held in the large octagon in front of a crowd full of voracious Iowa fight fans.

Besides three regional/local fighters competing on this card, we will also be privileged enough to watch athletes shipping in from Norway, The Netherlands, Wales, and Vietnam to compete in the heartland so getcha popcorn ready!

Last week we earned two units to bring digital results to 10-11, -1.45u to date. Let us keep the momentum flowing into Des Moines!

Cory Sandhagen -455 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +365 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Figueiredo, after having left the flyweight division for the Bantamweight division, is ranked fifth after going 1-1 in two bouts against athletes in the division’s top fifteen.

Fighting professionally since 2012 Figueiredo sports a depth of UFC experience, an aggressive, power based striking acumen and a black belt in BJJ. He is well rounded, durable and with a victory here could elevate himself into title consideration and the stacked division’s top five.

In Sandhagen, however, Figgy has drawn one bad card.

Sandhagen is in his prime at thirty-three years of age and his four-year youth edge coupled with a two-inch reach and six-inch height advantage together provide him great striking benefits. Sandhagen, a man that trains in Denver’s elevation is himself a brown belt in BJJ so together, his size, his fight weaponry and his depth of UFC experience competing against this divisions top five together force me to regard Sandhagen as a legitimate favorite in this bout and a candidate for the next title shot should he defeat Figueiredo.

Sandhagen will rely upon his fluidity of movement, his length and guile to keep the incoming Brazilian slugger in space where the Sandhagen offensive fight arsenal is most effective.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over

Mason Jones -550 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425 Lightweight (155lbs)

Des Moines native Stephens comes back to the UFC to fight in his own back yard for a couple reasons. One, because he will help pack the gym with locals as well, he will do in this fight what he does in all his fights… and that is to provide forward pressing, offensive striking violence.

Stephens at thirty-eight still has the will, the fortitude and the aggression to compete in the world’s largest fighting organization but it’s his fight skills, his ability to withstand a flush fist to the face and his cardio that together make him susceptible to any true young ascending athlete.

In Jones, Stepehen’s gets such an ascending talent. Jones is tough as iron with a granite jaw, he has a well-rounded fight arsenal and packs profuse power in his hands.

On the floor for a roll or on the feet to force his adversary into retreat, Jones, who has been away from the organization to improve his skills (a scary thought) should absolutely pulverize Stephens in this fight.

I believe Jones’ approach will be to ground the midwestern mauler then reign ground and pound upon him in unrelenting fashion.

When the bell for round one rings you best be watching this fight because these men will each look to disintegrate the other.

Total in this fight:   1.5Rds Over -120

Meisha Tate -135 vs. Yana Santos +115 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Santos has had two fights since 2023 after having a child. She is 1-1 in those bouts. She enters this fight understanding that the Meisha Tate name can propel her into the divisions top fifteen with a win or find her free falling down the lady’s bantamweight rankings should she be defeated.

Santos has been the more active athlete though each of these ladies enters off considerable time off. For Tate however, her wrestling acumen coupled with her championship pedigree force me to regard the opening price on this fight of a pick-em as flawed.

Currently Tate stands -135 and it is my handicap that her aggressive wrestling and forward pressing attack will be enough to quell the journeyman-like skills possessed by Santos.

The total in this pillow fight is lined 2.5Rds over -400 so a decision seems more than likely here.

Tate via decision is a strong consideration here but props are not yet released so we will use…

Tate -135

1u to return .74u

Friday at midday PT my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off four straight winning weeks, so the time is now to jump in for investment advice.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport

The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.

Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.

This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.

Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…

I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.

The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.

It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.

I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).

Oh Canada!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Murphy’s Jaw

The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.

The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.

Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.

Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.

Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.

The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.

Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.

Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.

In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?

This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.

Emmett +280 .5u

Patience as this number keeps rising

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190

Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event

Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.

Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.

Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.

Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.

The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.

Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.

Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.

Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.

The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.

Brito -210

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195

Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)

This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!

In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.

In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.

The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.

Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.

His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.

Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.

Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?

Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195

Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN London Edwards vs. Brady: Punch D’Leon

 

Last week’s Fight Night fight saw underdogs realize a 6-7 result. Favorites in the UFC this year are 56.4%, down considerably from last year’s 70.5%.

Two digital releases last week split resulting in a -.30 deficit, digital results 2025: 6-5 +.80u

Preliminary action for UFC LV 104 begins Saturday morning at 10am PST with the main slate kicking off at 1pm PT. This event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which are in divisions weighing 170lbs and above. I track these ‘big boy bouts’ to try to project how much violence/finishing potential may be on any particular card but that does not always hold as just last week, there were only three larger weight bouts, but nine of the thirteen fights ended in finish!

Three US fighters populate this London card, so we’ll witness a diversity of international talent, fight weaponry and athlete physiques entering this fight card from London town.

This March fight card has seen many of its thirteen matchups change favorites.

Leon Edwards +170 vs. Sean Brady -200 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Philadelphian Sean Brady is the division’s fifth ranked fighter. He’s a black belt in BJJ with a Muay Thai striking base to compliment his grappling.

Brady tore through the lower ranks of the division until he met up with current champion Belel Muhammad who pulverized Brady in a one sided second round striking clinic/exhibition.

Since that bout, Brady’s earned victory in two straight fights, however those opponents were truthfully not legitimate top ten talents.

Brady’s forceful with his forward pressure and strives at all costs to smother opponents, get up close then wrestle/grapple. His striking is in development and not overly refined, precise nor powerful for he uses striking only to position himself for the clasp.

Brady’s strike defense is of real concern and the fact that his last couple of opponents really could not expose him in that capacity seems to be getting overlooked.

Fromer champion Leon Edwards is now ranked as the number one contender. The Londoners’ advantages in this fight are many. He’s four inches taller and the southpaw will sport a two-inch reach advantage over Brady which is sure to present advantage when this fight is standing.

Leon’s a much better wrestler than most understand, and it is in his well-rounded fight arsenal, his physical attributes, and his ability to evade strikes that makes him a complete adversary before mentioning his experience in five round main event spotlights.

Leon’s a deft boxer striker with fluid movement whose striking has an accumulating effect because of the diversity of strikes/kicks he hurls. He’s also a solid wrestler with a black belt in BJJ who has faced the elite of the division.

Despite his accolades, the MMA community seems to believe that Leon’s performance in the first Usman fight (outside its last minute) then his display against Muhammad is his MO. I may beg to differ.

In Edwards last fight about a year ago, Belal Muhammad decided he was going to use his world class forward pressing wrestling acumen/pressure to smother Leon and wrest the title from him which is exactly what he did in a one-sided decision.

The question into this fight is whether Brady can duplicate that effort for a full five rounds. Surely his camp’s blueprint for success was seen in that Muhammad victory.

Once this fight starts it is my contention that Leon’s fluidity of movement, his take down defense, his precision striking/kicking and finally his five-round championship experience against the elite of the division he has faced will present him advantage without saying anything about that home crowd!

Edwards +170

Patience, wait to get the absolute best number on the Englishman.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Carlos Ulberg -275 vs. Jan Blachowicz +240 light heavyweight (205lbs) co main

Former champion Blachowicz enters this fight off a 2023 split decision loss to Alex Pereira then shoulder reconstruction immediately following. Usually that much time away is concerning but for a cagey veteran like Blachowicz, the time away had to have helped him prepare appropriately to arrive fresh and ready to fire in this most important battle.

Third ranked light heavyweight Blachowicz has a well-rounded MMA arsenal and he’s durable, experienced, and surely coming into this fight with the desire to make another run at the title, but he faces a young lion with momentum and ferocity.

The concern for the forty-two-year-old Blachowicz is that in this fight he is coming off injury and facing a man eight years his junior, who is taller, longer and coming in with an abundance of momentum.

In sixth ranked Carlos Ulberg we get an Aussie from City Kickboxing who is tall, long, young, and extremely well coached/prepared. A kickboxer/striker by nature Ulberg’s ability to grapple/wrestle will be tested in this fight if Blachowicz has any chance at winning.

Ulberg will be the stronger, faster, quicker man in the cage. He sports a positive 2.93 significant strikes per minute to Blachowicz’s +.50 so it will be at range that Ulberg will want to vie with the former champion, and it will be inside the pocket where Blachowicz must position himself.

Ulberg’s wrestling is not well established despite the fact that he sports an 83% take-down defense. It’s important to understand who he has fought, as his competitors had striking based fighting styles, none had accomplished forward pressing abilities. Ulberg’s simply not competed against the depth of wrestler/grappler than Blachowicz is even at forty-two years of age.

Fight fans will determine soon enough if Ulberg’s takedown defense is developed enough for him to dictate that this fight is to be competed on the feet. A stand-up bout at distance is mandatory for his chances of winning.

Should Ulberg be able to keep this fight at his reach, it is my belief that he has the ability to dominate Blachowicz with his movement, length, and superior striking/kicking acumen.

Jan must be able to plant his forehead on Ulberg’s chest, maul him over time and sap the strength/cardio from the blistering striker by forcing him to defend.

Jan MUST be able to force Ulberg to defend his wrestling early in this fight to gain his advantage late. Blachowicz next step is to force the rangy striker to the floor where the advantage will be all Blachowicz.

Where this fight takes place will determine everything in this fight and at this price I must regard Blachowicz, despite his forty-two years as live.

Blachowicz +240 

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -185

Marcin Tybura -120 vs. Mick Parkin +100 heavyweight (265lbs.)

Big Boys.

Polish fighter and eighth ranked Marcin Tybura is the athlete who arrives in the octagon Saturday with an advantage in level of competition faced he as well owns a depth of UFC experience.

A black belt in BJJ, the thirty-nine-year-old Tybura is more stringent grappling and in close quarters for his striking is telegraphed, slow, and singularly launched. In most fights and in this one especially Tybura’s success will be found in his grappling. Should he position Parkin on the canvas, he’ll possess great advantage over this less experienced foe.

Englishman Mick Parkin began as Tom Aspinall’s training partner but has slowly evolved into a recognized talent after going 4-0 in his first four UFC bouts.

The twenty-nine-year-old Englishman is a forward pressing power puncher who is long on durability and cardio. Despite the fact that he’s defeated athletes no longer in the UFC or on the cusp of its cutting board, Parkin’s looked like a fighter with promise and one that is quickly improving.

Tybura represents a certain step up for Parkin but Parkin’s one-inch height and reach advantages and the fact he competes in front of his hometown people must be considered. Then add the fact that fighters with ten years of youth advantage win at a 67% rate and we have ourselves what I consider to be a live local fighter.

Parkin +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available with all of my final releases for this UFC London card. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

Edwards is +175 at Westgate

originally published VSiN.com 3-18-25

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV103 Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Gorilla in the fist

This week the UFC returns to its APEX center in Las Vegas, NV. where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans are able to attend. Prelims kick off at 1pm PT and the main card starts at 4pm PT.

Of the thirteen scheduled fights, five take place at welterweight or heavier as well fourteen US athletes populate the card with another nine from Brazil.

Last year I moaned incessantly about the 70.5% rate of favorites winning in the UFC. That number has regressed quite aggressively so far in 2025 as favorites stand 27-19-1 or 57.4%.

I dropped two bets last week on dismal dogs but one, Champion Weili Zhang who closed +135 dominated her fight against a singularly dimensioned and overmatched Tatian Suarez.

Digital results stand 2-4 -3.15 on the year.

Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs. Jarod Cannonier +165 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Cannonier is the seventh ranked middleweight in the division. He’s competed from heavyweight to middleweight throughout his illustrious career and at forty years of age enters a most pivotal fight as his top ten standing lies in jeopardy with a loss here.

Cannonier’s defeated the elite of the division prior to his last two fights. Those losses, to Ciao Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov respectively showed Cannonier to be a true warrior if not an undersized forty-year-old competing against larger, faster, more powerful adversaries.

Saturday, he takes the cage against another highly skilled and dangerous mixed martial artist. This will be Cannoniers the third competition and second main event in eight months! Three in eight is highly active for a thirty-year-old middleweight let alone one that is forty.

Rodrigues, an eight-time amateur BJJ champion in Brazil, arrives to this fight winner of his last three however Rodrigues has not competed against the elite of the division as has his opponent, so this represents a step up in competition for certain.

Rodrigues is a sculpted specimen of a man who carries an abundance of power in any hammer he throws whether elbow, knee, or fist.

‘Robocop’ as Rodrigues is called will hulk over Cannonier. He’s three inches the taller fighter, he will grossly outweigh Cannonier come fight night and he’s the younger man by eight years.

When this fight begins, it will be a battle between the speed, legwork and fight IQ of Cannonier and the methodical, deliberate, forward pressing pressure applied by the aggressive Robocop.

Cannonier’s recent activity (in fact over activity) against elite competition cannot be regarded as advantageous. In fact, his accepting these top-level fights against younger ascending athletes with only weeks in between to recover/recharge is concerning, it tells me he is yearning to earn as opposed to grinding for a title?

Rodrigues -190

Youssef Zalal -380 vs. Calvin Kattar +310 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main

Like the main event this fight presents a contract of styles. In one corner we have a highly skilled, lightning fast, athletic, mixed martial artist in Youssef Zalal. He fights against a large, powerful, forward pressing boxer/striker in Cal Kattar.

Kattar’s last three fights have been against the top ranked fighters in the division. Sterling, Emmett and Allen represent a murders row of elite competition. Kattar went to decision with both Sterling and Allen which is impressive in itself. He was injured in the other fight.

Kattar’s advantages will be his size, experience and power striking.

Zalal in 2022, was released from his first stint in the UFC because he was just an ordinary fighter on a very good day and a poor one on all others.

He spent the next couple of years maturing and realizing that it is his fighting skill not his intellect which would allow him to realize financial success.

By the time Zalal worked his way back into the UFC last March he was a completely different man emotionally and physically. Since his return he’s dominated his last three opponents while stepping up in level of opponent for each bout.

With this fight, Zalal enters the cage in peak form as a fighter against a guy in Kattar who is thirty-six and focused on retaining his standing within the division as opposed to tearing through it.

Zalal’s focus manifested with his speed, footwork and well-rounded fighting ability present too much for a more deliberate yet durable athlete in Kattar as I handicap this fight.

The big question is whether Zalal has a chance to finish the tough Bostonian.

Total in this fight; 2.5Rds Over -240

Jose Delgado -265 vs. Conor Matthews +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Matthews, thirty-two, enters this fight 0-1 in the UFC and hungry to solidify his position in the organization. He’s not overly athletic nor has he competed against high level competition which is what he is going to get in this fight.

Delgado is a young gun from Phoenix who will come into this fight with a lethal striking plan backed up by world class wrestling/grappling. Delgado will be the younger man by six years, the taller fighter by three inches and he’ll hold a reach advantage all of which together add to advantage when these two are standing and striking.

Delgado is just another of the highly talented lighter weight professional athletes training at Phoenix MMALab. He is in a position to shine Saturday as this fight has been placed on the main card.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -200

I’ll release a parlay this week.

Delgado -265/Rodrigues -190 parlay: 1u returns 1.10u

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for each week’s UFC cards. Catch it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs. Imavov

This week the UFC visits Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for a Fight Night event scheduled for twelve fights and headlined by former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Adesanya faces fifth ranked middleweight Nassordine Imavov.

The large thirty-foot octagon and a raucous Saudi crowd will greet each battle with vigor. Scheduled for this card is a women’s Flyweight fight. Women competing in a UFC bout in Saudi Arabia has been down right rare up until Saturday.

As a special reminder, fight prelims begin at 6am PST so viewers on thew west coast may mix their KO’s with coffee.

Favorites this year stand 15-10-1 so there’s been immediate regression at the start of 2025 which is welcomed by underdog chasers. I’m interested in determining if these first two cards of the year represent potential long-term correction or simply temporary relief from the stringent rate of favorites from last year.

Thus far in 2025 digital fight results stand 1-2, -1.0u on the strength of Islam Makhachev’s submission victory over late replacement Renato Moicano in UFC 311.

Israel Adesanya -166 vs. Nassourdine Imavov +140 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov is a Russian athlete training in Paris France.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last three bouts against respected, ranked middleweight competition.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking is power based and under rated though not flashy and precision based.

Imavov’s strength is his durability and toughness. His focus is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can be depleting. In past fights, Imavov’s high output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war.

In former Champion Adesanya we have a perfect dance partner in fight style to Imavov’s pressure grappling.  Adesanya is fluid afoot, deft in his ability to kick/strike, counterstrike from any angle. His ability to maintain space to deploy his offensive attack is exemplary. Adesanya’s manipulation of space creates unique striking/kick angles which position him to damage opponents over time with striking/kicking volume.

.

This fight represents is a great clash in styles as Imavov will work to close the distance between he and the former champion in order to press him against the cage then eventually ground him where he may use his strength and grappling to bludgeon and batter the former champion and make him question why he is still fighting.

Adesanya, that is a motivated, focused and pinpoint Adesanya, will work to maintain distance using footwork, volume striking/kicking and deft strike evasion and he’ll be able to execute that for all five rounds.

Adesanya’s goal will be to accrue damage to Imavov with knees, kicks and strikes using unorthodox angles, unusual speed, and a precision kicking attack.

Where this fight takes place will be a great tell as to who is in control for Adesanya’s abilities are surely muted when he is on his back however Issy’s faced formidable grapplers in prior bouts and his 75% take down defense against the high level of competition he has faced must be acknowledged.

Adesanya’s athleticism, reach and length advantages will position him to potentially shred Imavov as long as Adesanya can keep this fight at distance and upright and provided he decides this is what he really wants.

Early on, this fight makes out to be a tight, competitive bout. However, should it enter the third round and beyond, it’s my judgement that a focused, motivated Adesanya with his experience and competition faced will hold advantage. There’s just one question..

Which Issy do we get?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Said Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Vinicious Oliveira +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

There is a deep seeded distain and rivalry between Russia and Brazil when it comes to MMA competition.

Nurmagomedov, the Russian athlete is long, tall and an international master of sport in amateur MMA.

After a loss to Brazilian Raoni Barcelos in 2019 Nurmagomedov has disposed of five fighters while losing an ultra-close contest to Jonathan Martinez in a fight I actually scored for Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov has the wrestling foundation that most Dagestani fighter’s posses which coupled with the last name makes him a worthy representation of Russian MMA.

In Brazilian fighter Oliveira, we get a flamboyant, ultra-athletic, electric, power striker from Brazil who is decorated in BJJ. He’s lightning fast, ultra-aggressive and takes fights directly to opponents with only the intent to finish.

In this fight Oliveira will be the younger man by three years, he’s slightly taller than Nurmagomedov and his switch stance fighting style will provide Nurmagomedov plenty of tactical problems.

Nurmagomedov must try to ground Oliveira, gain top position then beat the BJJ out of him from the dominant position, that will be his singular goal.

Nurmagomedov’s striking will look subpar while these two compete on the feet for the Oliveira athleticism, footwork and striking acumen will provide him great advantage as long as this fight remains upright.

Nurmagomedov will sell his soul for the takedown and where this fight takes place will offer fans great insight into who will hold advantage in this great clash of national fighting philosophies.

Nurmagomedov opened -278 in this fight.

Total in this fight 2.5 rds. Over -145

Mike Davis -135 vs. Fares Ziam +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

French fighter Ziam has looked razor sharp in his last four bouts. Ziam is tall, long and has solid striking ability however his take down defense and wrestling are nominal in approach. Ziam’s been able to dominate average talent in the cage with his striking alone, He has faced few adversaries who have shown the ability to mix up the attack and pressure him with both a wrestling threat and striking fluidity.

With Mike Davis we get a fighter who has been relatively inactive. The young man has had to overcome injury in order to compete and his ability to remain active has been difficult. When he does enter the octagon, Davis has shown the ability to fight effectively on the feet by using volume power striking and intense forward pressure but he has the wrestling base to compete in this fight where he seems to have great advantage.

Davis is different from other recent Ziam opponents in that he has formidable wrestling, and it is in his ability to mix it up and display a well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry that provides him advantage in this fight.

That Davis has been inactive is not his fault and if anything, he arrives to this fight fresh, ready to fire and completely under the radar.

Mike Davis is a potential top fifteen athlete in the lightweight division and on Saturday I believe he has a great performance.

Davis -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Friday early AM the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my final releases for this fight card. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

Using Circa lines

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability, UFC

2024 All Sports Financial Review:

GambLou.com 2024 financial results are as follows:

2024 GambLou.com Results Summary*

NFL                                          61-50    $16,765.00*  15%    ROI 

College World Series                14-13     +3.10u              12.5%   ROI

NHL                                            40-54    -1.50u               -2%       ROI

UFC final 2024                        93-127     -7.0u                -2.1%    ROI

*(NFL Unit size is 10 times larger than the unit size used for every other sports)

GambLou.com directed 16% of all GROSS income in 2024 to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ. Please read all about my connection to San Xavier by tapping on the San Xavier del Bac Mission tab at the top right of this webpage. 

GambLou.com is also financing an under privileged young man’s Catholic education in the Dominican Republic through NPH USA and will continue to do so as long as I am breathing.

—————————————————-

UFC favorites in 2024 realized a 70.5% win rate, as a note Favorites in the UFC have averaged 63%/64% each year for the past fifteen plus years…no excuse just the facts.

GambLou.com

It’s Business