This week’s UFC production is a Fight Night event from Paris, France. Early prelims drop at 9am PT. The fight slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts to be competed inside the traditional 30’ cage.

There are nine French fighters populating the card with one from Belgium whom I expect will be regarded by the French fans as one of their own in an event that has athletes competing from across the globe.

As is always the case, local crowds, athletes, and judging must all be regarded when handicapping these fights, especially those involving local fighters.

Favorites in the UFC stand 255-112-11 or 67.4%, that rate has held for most of the year and is higher than the traditional 63+/-% of the past several years.

In the NOCHE event, the Manuel Torres -120 setback cost us 1.20u. Sneak-Teep releases in 2024 now stand 16-9-2 +7.30u

Let’s pad that profit.

Benoit Saint-Denis -270 vs. Renato Moicano +225 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Moicano is the eleventh ranked lightweight. He’s finding success in the division after competing for years as a lighter featherweight weight fighter. He’s crafty, well-seasoned and has faced the elite in two different divisions.

Moicano’s recent rise in social media popularity is coupled with a winning run in mixed martial arts results. Moicano enters this bout against this ‘local hero’ opponent with momentum and belief. Two traits that can propel a fighter to championships.

Moicano’s game revolves around grappling and the submission. He is a black belt in BJJ as well he’s versed in Muay Thai striking but at age thirty-five and considering what he’s been through physically in his career Moicano’s ability to withstand forceful power strikes from opponents has waned.

To date, he’s been able to overcome his lack of durability with a beguiling ability to overcome firestorms, earn an inside/clasping position on less versed opponents then finish them like a spider does to a fly caught in the web.

In tenth ranked Saint-Denis, Moicano has his elite opponent.

Saint Denis is a huge man for the division, and he’ll hulk in size over the more svelte and former featherweight Moicano.

Saint-Denisa is a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in Judo. His striking is profusely power based though he can be wild and overly forceful at times and against world class BJJ practitioners like Moicano, wild is never advised.

Saint-Denis is a former member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment in France; he was awarded the Medal of the Nation’s gratitude and the Combatant’s cross after his five years in the French service.

This man is focused, he’s driven to success and his fighting acumen is derived from his father who was a gifted Judo practitioner and taught his son the art when he was in diapers.

Saint-Denis is the younger man by six years, he’s a southpaw who will be the faster man in the cage and he’s well more athletic/explosive than is Moicano.

BSD took time off from his Poirier loss (one he was rushed into in my estimation) to regroup and refocus himself for a run at the lightweight title, now that’ she’s tasted world class competition.

This fight against Moicano, in Paris, is a desirable spot for Saint Denis, highly desirable.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -170

Nassourdine Imavov -220 vs. Brendan Allen +185 Middleweight co main event

This scheduled five round battle will be epic.

In one corner we have a tough, gritty, redneck grappler from Florida expertly equipped in BJJ but still refining his striking ability.

Brendan Allen arrives in Paris with a seven-fight win streak intact. However, a closer look at the competition he’s faced shows that Allen’s defeated opponents that any top ten fighter in the division should have defeated.

He steps up in class for this stern test against top ten competition and the question to be asked is how he will fare against elite middleweights as a more singularly dimensioned fighter for Allen gives away striking expertise to any athlete currently in the UFC’s top ten middleweights.

Fourth ranked Imavov of Russian descent but fighting out of France solidified his ranking in the top five of this division this past June when he for all intents and purposes knocked Jared Cannonier out.

With a world class boxing base Imavov, 14-4 professionally has refined his mixed martial arts arsenal to include capable BJJ under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.

He is a most fluent striker with deft footwork and an abundance of damaging power with fists, feet, knees, and elbows. He specializes in striking/kicking precision, and he’s developed his cardio over the course of his last several fights against elite competition to provide him the ability to emit high output into the championship rounds.

6-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has matriculated his way into the top five of the division diligently and now has the opportunity to solidify himself as a potential championship contender by dominating Allen in this test.

Imavov will surely try to keep this fight standing where he’ll own great advantage over Allen and Allen will be shooting for the takedowns and attempting at all costs to eliminate any space between these two and make this a roll in the hay on the canvas of that Paris octagon.

I believe the intelligent, well-rounded fighting acumen of Imavov will be the difference in a fight that will highlight Allen’s toughness but also his lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

I like the fact that this is scheduled for five rounds. Each man has experience in five round bouts which contributes to this week’s digital release:

Imavov/Allen over 2.5Rds. -135

Taylor Lapilus -300 vs. Vince Morales +250 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Lapilus is a French fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC.

In his return Lapilus has displayed vast improvement in his fighting game and in this tussle, he’s had a full camp to prepare for an opponent that was injured and had to pull out of the fight just a week or so ago.

In, on short notice comes another former UFC athlete, Vince Morales who is coming off a notable win in United Fight League. He takes this fight with little to no camp in order to endear himself as a company man to the UFC.

So, with little to no camp or notice Morales travels into French territory to take on a local hero who has had the benefit of a full camp.

Build all your parlays around Taylor Lapilus fight Enthusiasts!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds over -300

I for one will be checking the ‘Lapilus via decision’ props based on that total!

Fights begin Saturday at 9am PT so prepare appropriately by accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast which will be up sometime Friday early morning!

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

This week the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with it’s Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.

It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70’s during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches almost all of which I attended.

Attending those fights, I observed AND absorbed of the passion of the Mexican fight fans as well the valor, guts, toughness and never quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.

This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155lbs. and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30’ Octagon.

Last week we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability which stands 22-17 +10.35u.

Let’s find another winning position in this Noche event!

Champion Sean O’Malley -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Champion O’Malley has gone from a young skinny precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well versed, and complete mixed martial artist.

O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically and within the realm of MMA.

He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his own momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.

Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct.

However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last seven years or so competing against with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have put him in position to both be confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types but more importantly to do so with the confidence that the opppo0onent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability.

O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.

Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup he is giving away massive advantages in age, height and limb reach to the champion.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think or act for they are constantly moving forward to press, smother and engage.

O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.

Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only and by that I mean that he has one single point of focus in fights and that is to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat then from top control open up the faucet and reign never ending ground and pound.

O’Malley requires space in order to flow while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a strait jacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.

Both of these athletes have vied against the elite of the division, and both belong in this fight, however only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Over -154*

Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him from his strength while the O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in position catch Merab with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.

It’s my judgement that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation and at this point those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now as his price is only going to go up while Merab maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price they can on the Tasmanian Devil.

Champion Alexa Grasso -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110 Women’s Flyweight title

This is the trilogy fight for these ladies.

Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound for pound women’s MMA GOAT.

Yes, even over Amanda Nunes however, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s thirty-six and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.

It’s my judgement that Shevchenko’s shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant Angelo Dundee taught me years ago.

Dundee would warn that; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills.

Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to will it. However, she’s now thirty-six and coming off two tough five round battles against Grasso, the current champion.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.

For Grasso, she’s had months to reprepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.

In both previous fights Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success and in each case those skills were enough to earn her the title.

Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this fight both camps understand that little separates these two world class fighters.

Different in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts and each one will be yearning to see the Mexican dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!

In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in history of the flyweight division let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout the course of history.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -200

I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.

Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Fight of the night!

Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6’3” and he sports a 75” reach allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.

He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries as he lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse one punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.

Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes that have the ability to forge forward, cut the cage and corner Bahamondes, thus taking his greatest asset away from him, his distance.

From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights the long, tall drink of water that is Bahamondes can begin to slow and it’s here where he is vunerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? That answer for me is an unequivocal yes.

Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is in the aggressiveness of Torres, his pressure, power strikes/kicks and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.

Torres striking is high output as he lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes is the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell for it is in Torres ability to mix up his attack that make him the more well dangerous fighter in this matchup.

Torres -120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Pick-em

Heavy lean to over

Friday mid-day PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com

Enjoy the Tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

After a week away the UFC returns to Las Vegas for two events, the first this week at its APEX center then next week at T-Mobile the world will get to experience UFC Noche an extravaganza that will be held in the new Las Vegas Sphere and headlined with two world championship bouts.

Digital results after the first eight months of the year stand 21-17 +9.28u which is a solid return considering that favorites this year in the UFC are winning at a 67.3% clip.

This week there are thirteen scheduled bouts for the smaller cage at the APEX. Three of the fights happen at 170lbs and above so hopefully we’ll get to witness violence from the many smaller bodied combatants!

Sean Brady -185 vs. Gilburt Burns +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Two gifted grapplers will meet in the middle of the octagon Saturday and rather than grope, grapple, and grind, these two will compete at least for a time on the feet. There Burns does possess the more developed striking while Brady has a believer’s confidence in his.

Brady will strive from the opening bell to drive this battle to the mat. On the ground this fight figures to be fascinating for the American Brady is an accomplished black belt in BJJ with Muay Thai skills and will be the slightly larger man while the Brazilian is a third-degree black belt with developed striking diversity and power. That said, he did spend much of his career at 155 lbs.

On the ground this fight can prove to be fascinating because watching the different dialects of BJJ compete at an elite level would be a treat, one I would love to witness especially with the larger men.

However, that type of high output, sustained effort is an approach that may well favor the younger athlete because of the enormous amount of energy needed to employ such a tactic for fifteen minutes let alone twenty-five.

Fighters seven years and younger than their opponents win roughly 65% of the time in the UFC and it is in this statistic that I believe Brady will hold advantage.

Burns will look crisp, sharp, and effective early but he must be able to sustain it. The constant forward pace/grind/pressure from Brady will be forced on Burns in an attempt to both negate his offense and tax the thirty-eight-year-old warrior of his cardio. Then, over the course of the championship rounds begin to display his advantage in this fight, his youth and ability to compete for a full five rounds.

This fight opened as a dead ‘pick-em,’ so I’ll watch how this line moves through the week and make any decision once the price stabilizes.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -180

This fight may well end up at 4.5Rds. so I’ll jump the Over 3.5 -180 and use it as the second leg of a parlay. (see below).

Natalia Silva -300 vs. Jessica Andrade +250 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Brazilian athlete and former champion in the UFC Jessica Andrade is a storied mixed martial artist who has competed effectively and for championships at two different weight classes in the UFC.

She’s competed against the elite of two divisions for twenty-seven fights spanning eleven years, so her resume is complete, yet she hungers to continue to be active.

Andrade’s found herself toiling in recent personal issues that mandate she stay busy and earn to help her work her way back into financial stability. This is why she has been taking as many fights so close together as we have witnessed over the last several months.

Andrade’s surely a future hall of fame UFC athlete but in 2024 and now thirty-two years old, her skills, particularly her speed, quickness and footwork have waned which is unfortunate as Andrade is undersized for flyweight and has been used to being the more fleet, skilled, athletic fighter in the cage. That will NOT be the case this Saturday.

In this matchup, Andrade is faced with a future star in Natalia Silva, a Brazilian mixed martial artist with refined striking and grappling skill, tremendous speed, and huge momentum.

While Silva is stepping up in class of opponent, that fact is that she’ll be three inches the taller fighter with the same amount of reach advantage as well Silva’s better than five years younger than Andrade.

Silva’s youth as with Sean Brady will be the assets both athletes rely upon to try to get their hands raised this weekend.

When the bell to round one rings, we’ll witness Silva’s advantages of speed, quickness and footwork are tangible and real. Those skills will guide her through this fight provided she has the cardio and level-headedness to maintain her distance and composure from the incoming raging fury of Andrade.

Silva must keep Andrade at the end of her strikes and blister the former champion with precision strikes, kicks knees and elbows as she tries to enter the pocket.

Speed kills.

Silva -300 parlay to ‘Over 3.5 -180 Rounds Burns/Brady.’

1unit invested returns 1.07 units

GamLou.com ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day T Friday. My final releases for this fight card can only be found there!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Perth, Australia is the location for this week’s UFC 305.

Competing fighters will benefit from a hysterical Aussie crowd witnessing twelve scheduled bouts in a large 30-foot cage where preliminary action begins at 3:30pm PT.

The card features nine Australians seven of which face opponents from around the globe. As is always the case when the UFC travels to locations throughout the world, it’s important to understand who the local athletes are and which fighters if any are likely to benefit from potential favorable matchmaking, lack of travel as well potential ‘home cooking’ decision results.

Last week Sergei Spivak earned digital readers another unit of profit as he submitted Polish heavyweight fighter Marcin Tybura in the first round. Spivak is a heavyweight that can whup anyone on the roster save the top five ranked heavyweights in the division.

UFC favorites 2024: 220-97-8 (67.6%)

2024 Digital results: 20-16 +8.73 (+123)

Dricus Du Plessis +110 vs. Israel Adesanya -130 Middleweight (185lbs.) title

DDP is a massive sized profusely powerful South African kickboxing talent, he is 7-0 in the UFC but has only defeated two elite middleweight opponents, one could argue that the title he won came via a faulty split decision.

Du Plessis is a forward pressing, heavy handed striker who can numb legs with his kicks and shut down foe’s consciousness with this power striking. Du Plessis is neither swift afoot nor nimble evading strikes, but in his own way he is awkwardly agile, tough, durable and since his nose operation seems to be able to fight without any cardiovascular issues.

In former champion and second ranked middleweight Adesanya, Du Plessis draws an opponent not only four inches taller than he but one with considerable speed/quickness advantages. Despite the fact that Adesanya is now thirty-five the Nigerian is light years ahead of Du Plessis when it comes to innate quickness, precision striking, strike defense and athleticism.

With Adesanya the question is not whether he is capable of defeating Du Plessis, the question is whether Adesanya is property focused, trained, and motivated to take aggressive action when this fight calls for him to inflict damage.

When fighting for a UFC title motivation is rarely questioned and, in this case, with the rivalry between them and each claiming to be ‘the’ authentic African athlete motivation is not questioned. What may be called into question rather than motivation is emotion.

Emotion is rarely a fighter’s friend, it at all times must be checked and eradicated. That said, in this fight I sense an abundance of emotion emanating from Adesanya.

Adesanya’s physical fight plan is simple, use his speed, quickness, combination striking and deft defense to befuddle DDP and force him into becoming predictable by charging inside to engage.

For DDP he needs to be patient. Understanding that this is a twenty-five-minute fight, and it may take him all twenty-five to badger/frustrate Adesanya, force him into a corner then unleash power hooks and crosses to the body and head.

DDP will look to shut the lights out on Issy with bludgeoning strikes and kicks while Adesanya will look to shred DDP with accumulated volume and eventually take him out by utilizing space, time, angles, and combination striking…that is provided he is level, balanced and focused mentally.

This title defense is the FIRST real test for DDP as he was awarded a close decision against Strickland and now, he must face Issy in Australia with all his fellow ‘sandgroppers’ cheering him on.

DDP has been chiding Issy constantly leading up to fight week and I wonder if his quips about Issy being in his own head may be getting to the former champion.

DDP must remain logical and clinical in this fight, He must follow his plan and hope that over time he can suck some of the speed and zip from Adesanya in order to try to catch him with any form of devastating strike, kick, or elbow.

Adesanya for his part must remain stone faced and without emotion, if he can maintain his emotional control, he stands a great chance of finishing DDP. If Adesanya gets emotional and wanders from his team’s plan then he’ll have to find a way to live with the outcome of this fight, one he should technically win.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145

Steve Erceg -205 `vs. Kai Kara-France +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Fourth ranked Erceg leaped up the flyweight rankings after his impressive title opportunity against current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

Erceg is a balanced mixed martial artist, he can grapple a good game as well he has size, length and effective striking ability. Add to that the fact that he provided the current flyweight champion a bona fide scare in their recent title fight, and we can add confidence to his already complete MMA weaponry.

In Erceg we have a fighter that in my judgement may not be defeated for some time in this division should he defeat the elite Kara-France.

Kara-France is an authentic and difficult test for Erceg as Kara-France is deeply experienced, has competed against the elite of the division and has earned finishes via the KO and submission.

Kara France is 3-2 in his last five fights losing his last two straight to former champion Brandon Moreno then a razor close, controversial loss to Amir Abazzi in a fight that most believed Kara-France won.

Kara-France is the older fighter, he has an experience edge over Erceg as well he may be the quicker of the two, but he’ll need to be able to deal with Erceg’s power grappling.

Erceg opened eyes with his battle against Pantoja so he will not sneak up on anyone in this division now but the question we need answered is this: Is Erceg ‘the’ legitimate threat to the flyweight title?

With a dominant performance Saturday night against a mainstay in the division in Kara-France that question must be a resounding yes.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250

Luana Santos -165 vs. Casey O’Neill +145 women’s flyweight (125lbs.)

Brazilian Santos is twenty-four, she’s 3-0 in the UFC but has competed only against a nominal set of UFC mixed martial artists. A judo and BJJ practitioner Santos is aggressive and willing but has yet to share the cage with any legitimate bona fide adversary. That said, she has looked efficient in disposing of who has been put in front of her.

Scotland’s O’Neill who currently trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture enters loser of her last two. Her loss to Jenn Maia was a tight fight and can be understood as she was coming off of an injury into that bout. Her last outing was worrisome as O’Neill looked passive and lethargic in a submission loss to Ariane Lipski, a fight that O’Neill should have won in my judgement.

So, Santos arrives looking to take O’Neill’s 15^th ranking in the division away from her while O’Neill is poised to regain control of her ranking with a stellar showing off of that last loss.

O’Neill’s a well-equipped, versatile fighter. She possesses expertise in Muay Thai striking, she’s earned a brown belt in BJJ and her father brought her up in kickboxing.

O’Neill’s two years the older fighter who holds a good deal of experience over Santos and experience against a higher level of competition at that. She’ll be the slightly larger athlete in the cage Saturday so with her diverse mixed martial arts weaponry, and her desperation to reaffirm her standing in the division it’s my belief that she comes out and competes in dominant fashion.

O’Neill opened -150 for this fight and now she’s a decent sized underdog. I prefer to believe that the opening number is a more appropriate depiction of this fight’s outcome than current pricing.

O’Neill +145

I released O’Neill +155 on Monday’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast, so we are seeing a little buy back on her. I’d say jump her now before more advantage in her price evaporated.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

The UFC is back in its APEX center this week for UFC LV95, an eleven-fight card populated with an international array of lesser-known UFC combatants.

Three of the bouts feature 170lbs. (or larger) men fighting in the smaller 25’ diameter APEX octagon while the remaining bouts are competitively matched smaller athletes where there could be a slight advantage to the wrestling/grappling combatant.

Favorites marched to a 12-1 result last week and stand 212-95-8 in 2024 which renders investing in underdogs a risky proposition.

Digital results in 2024 stand 19-16 +7.73u, I am navigating my way through the heavy first half year chalk parade profitably.

Sergei Spivak -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Main Event

This is a rematch of a 202 fight where Polish veteran Tybura, then an experienced 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced a twenty-five-year-old Moldovan neophyte Spivak to the heavyweight division by winning a close decision over the ‘Polar Bear’ who was competing in his third UFC fight.

In that first fight, the betting line on Tybura closed -125. It took Tybura all of his cardio, guile, and experience to win that fight over the younger, more energetic but less experienced Spivak.

Since then, each has won the fights they should have while dropping marquee opportunities to athletes well more gifted than they when it comes to heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.

Flash forward four years and Tybura, who is now even more experienced at thirty-seven stands ready to defend his eighth rank in the division against old foe Spivak who happens to be ranked 9^th.

In a small cage, large lumbering men with ill intent will offer excitement in the initial stages of this fight but after six minutes or so this one could turn into a ‘slow dance at the high school prom’.

These two mammoth heavyweights are neither dynamic physically or to be honest athletically. What we’ll witness after the first six to seven minutes will be groping, mauling, and maneuvering within the small cage once the crispness of each fighter’s strikes has dulled.

When this fight is completed, it’s my position that Sergei Spivak will earn a decision victory in a battle that will mean much to both the victor and the defeated but little else to anyone but we investors.

I sense revenge.

Spivak -145

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Lean over.

Jose Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This new co main event will be a tremendous clash of styles as a short sawed-off Mariscal looks to incapacitate the crafty, beguiling submission artist Jackson.

Jackson is the grizzled veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal, he’ll hold a two-inch arm reach advantage to go with his four-inch leg reach edge which in past fights has allowed him to use those thin appendages to clasp onto necks, head, arms, and legs.

Jackson earned victory in his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed vastly improved striking but dropped his two previous bouts to Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo, respectively. He works behind a decent jab, gut wrenching teep kicks and forward pressure when the war goes his way.

In Chepe Mariscal we have a human chain saw.

Chepe is short, squat, forward pressing and as tempered as an anvil. He forges forward with one intent, to attack the opponent with power strikes/kicks that deliver numbing results.

Chepe ‘makes’ fights but in this battle, I believe we’ll see him approach Jackson with initial caution as he must not force his way into a lack of submission awareness while working to engage.

Jackson’s going to have to employ a stiff jab to both neutralize Chape’s inward press as well maintain distance for his elbows and knees to catch the maniacal Mariscal on entry.

Entry is the key to this fight for ultimately ‘Chepe’ wants to be inside lobbing power bombs at Jackson and Jackson may well want Chepe working into him for the submission come far easier with a forceful foe.

Jackson’s length, experience and level of competition faced provide him a great opportunity to turn back Mariscal in this fight but he’ll need to overcome a couple rounds of pure ferocity if he is to do it unless he can find the aggressive strikers neck while the fight is early and the skin dry.

Mariscal’s momentum from three straight wins over bona fide UFC competition combined with his compact frame, extreme aggression, forward pressure, granite chin and profuse power force me to believe that a Chepe, a man that has never been submitted could make this four in a row in the UFC.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125

Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nicolay Verretennikov +285 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Barlow is young, fast, powerful and on the ascent despite the fact that he’s yet to be really tested in the UFC.

Short notice replacement fighter Verretennikov arrives with few credentials except for the fact that he’s won a couple of fights and was available to replace Uros Medic on very short notice.

Verretennikov is a durable, tough methodical finisher who will look to make a name for himself at this late stage of a fighting career.

In this fight we have the big name that needs to look dominant, but will the short notice replacement be game for the upset, a solid showing, or a beating?

Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -210.

This total is based on what Barlow is expected to do. It’s my take that Verretennikov is much more durable than one and a half rounds.

My final releases for this week’s UFC LV95 will be available Friday mid-day PT at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights this week.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

 

This week the UFC road trips from Manchester, England to Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates to present UFC FN Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov.

This card has thirteen fights slated with preliminary action starting at 9am PT in the states with the main card dropping at noon PT.

As with last week, it is foundational to understand which athletes are of Muslim belief and are from that geographical region and yes, they’ll be using the larger 30’ octagon this week.

Last week we split wagers, but the Belal Muhammad +215 wager pushes this year’s profitability to: 18-16 +6.72u.

Let’s address Abu Dhabi.

Cory Sandhagen +250 against Umar Nurmagomedov -290 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Second ranked Cory Sandhagen is a world class mixed martial artist.

He’s a fleet footed, agile moving striker who uses his physical stature and brilliant angling to tatter opponents with his striking while befuddling them with his evasive strike defense. Sandhagen is an apt wrestler and as a brown belt in BJJ he can more than hold his own rolling on the rug.

Sandhagen has been in against the elite of the division, he’s thirty-two years old so just in his prime, as well he’s three inches taller than his opponent and holds leg and arm reach advantages.

Sandhagen has a positive significant strike ratio and averages better than 1.3 take downs per fifteen minutes. He can dominate fights wherever they transition. Sandhagen is legitimate top three in this division based on everything he has displayed to date.

Nurmagomedov is the tenth ranked bantamweight, yet he comes into this fight an almost -300 favorite.

Despite the experience and physical advantages, he is giving away to Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov has an obtuse strike differential on the feet and impressive grappling/takedown acumen working for him coming into this bout. Umar is the marquee man for this production so understand the crowd is his and they’ll be pulling for their compatriots all night long.

Sandhagen faced a more pedigreed, complete set of adversaries so he is surely prepared for this challenge and in fact asked for Umar.

For Nurmagomedov this is a substantial step up in class, but one he has been asking for, Sandhagen just happened to be one of very few ranked bantamweights willing to clash in the cage with Umar.

This will be a tightly contested fight between two skilled professionals fighting in the large cage in Abu Dhabi.

It’s my judgement that Nurmagomedov’s skills will make this fight appear to be similar in style, competition and outcome to the interim bantamweight title bout Sandhagen and Petr Yan competed in late in 2021. In that fight, Yan was able to use his deft boxing and forward pressure to keep the fight standing while pressing Sandhagen backwards.

Surely the Nurmagomedov camp has scrutinized film of this fight closely in order to glean any/every advantage to help him overcome the experience, movement, and size advantages that Sandhagen carries to the cage.

I’ll want the remainder of the week to watch this line mature.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -195

Shara Magomedov -250 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk +210 Middleweight co main event

Michael O is a polish power puncher who is mean, aggressive, and willing to fight anyone, anywhere. It just so happens that Michael O’s striking/boxing is world class and those willing to compete on the feet with him give him every opportunity to earn victory often in impressive fashion.

However, Michal O has little wrestling/BJJ aptitude and therefore is often found drowning in fights where he is pitted against highly decorated grapplers or world class wrestlers.

In Shara Magomedov we have the epitome of a fighter to fade as he is deliberate on the feet, slow and telegraphing with his strikes yet a solid grappler/wrestler…

The way to make Shara shine is to feed him a singularly dimensioned striker from across the world, which is exactly what the UFC has done.

Once this fight starts Michael O will display a certain willingness to ‘get it on’ and he’ll light Magomedov up on the feet only so long as it takes the Dagestani grappler to decide to maul Michael O all over the mat.

Michael O knows exactly what’s coming and should he be able to keep this on the feet he has every chance to finish Magomedov but if this fight transitions to the mat, then Mikael O will drown.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Mackenzie Dern -120 vs. Lupita Godinez +100 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Godinez is a Mexican striker/wrestler who has deft boxing skill, a granite chin athletic movement and great cardio. Ranked tenth currently, Godinez has steadily risen up the division until her last bout a loss to Virna Jandiroba, an elite who is soon to be tussling for a title fight.

Godinez is exceedingly small in stature, but she is immense when it comes to toughness, belief and durability and she’ll enter this fight looking to get back into the win column by taking her opponent’s seventh ranked position away from her.

Seventh ranked MacKenzie Dern enters this fight a highly disrespected athlete based on my assessment of this line. At open she was -175 which seemed an accurate depiction of this fight.

Soon after opening however Godinez money poured in taking this line well closer to a pick-em.

Godinez has the mind, the heart, the durability, and the willingness to continue to rise up the ranks but she showed in her loss to Jandiroba that elite world class BJJ can cause her issue.

Dern enters this fight as the loser of three of her last four fights but returns to coach Jason Parillo under who Dern’s striking has evolved considerably.

Dern is the highest ranked most decorated BJJ artist of the division. Her championship pedigree from those BJJ tournaments, the level of UFC competition she has faced along with her improved striking together force me to regard Dern as the rightful favorite in this fight, a fight where she deserves to be priced more like she was at the opening bell as opposed to where she is priced currently.

Dern -120

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -238

Dern via submission is also an avenue I would consider once those prices are available.

Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast drops at GambLou.com. Go there to access all of my final releases for this UFC FN Abu Dhabi event.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!