Manchester, England is the location for this week’s UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad PPV event.

The fourteen-fight production begins with early prelims Saturday at 3:15pm PT, prelims start at 5pm PT then the main card drops at 7pm PT.

These fights transpire in the wee hours Sunday AM in Jolly Ol’ England so the crowd should be in ‘rare’ form for these bouts, ten of which feature English combatants.

Last week two releases split however, the parlay paid +151 so digital results stand 17-15 +5.58u to date.

Champion Leon Edwards -250 vs. Belal Muhammad +210 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Since these two fought to a no contest in March of 2021 each has performed brilliantly defeating every challenger faced.

For Muhammad, unrelenting, forward pressure wrestling is his fight foundation, and he compliments that with extreme mental toughness, sheer determination an improved striking/licking offense and simple belief.

Since these two first tussled, Muhammad has improved his striking but as opposed to piecing opponents up, he’s looking to strike only long enough to steal the opponent’s soul by forcing them to battle tooth and nail, second by second and inch my inch for a full twenty-five.

What Muhammad believes is that eventually his calculated aggressiveness early in the fight will allow him to eventually clasp a hold of them and choke them out with a submission late in the fight.

Champion Edwards will be defending his belt at home. The southpaw is the younger man, the taller man and he’ll also hold reach advantages over Muhammad.

Edwards has the ability to thrive anywhere a fight evolves be it wrestling, grappling, striking, or kicking. The dexterity of Edwards, his physical advantages and taking into consideration who he has competed against all force me to regard Edwards as the legitimate favorite in this fight.

On the Muhammad side, it’s his focus, his unrelenting nature, and the fact he has been in the cage against Leon already. Muhammad understands exactly what he must do to accomplish this upset and it begins and ends with sucking the cardio out of the champion and usurping his confidence.

What is intriguing is that almost every other English fighter on this slate is being bet aggressively by the betting public however in this main event Edwards price has only moved slightly.

Current lines show respect for Muhammad yet when I handicap the fight it all comes down to whether Muhammad force Edwards into succumbing.

That’s his path to the championship.

At current pricing, I’ll take Muhammad +210 or better*.

*It won’t hurt to be patient and watch this line because a better price may arise.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -215

Champion Tom Aspinall -355 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290 heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Interim

This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight. In it Aspinall closed at a price of -140 over Blaydes after opening as a dead pick-em.

Aspinall was injured early in the fight which began the process of each man earning their way right back to a title shot. It just so happens that the location is Manchester and on Saturday these two settle who will be the next heavyweight champion after Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic then rides off into the sunset.

Blaydes resume is solid, he’s a world class wrestling talent who has developed a better than average power-based strike arsenal into his offense and that striking comes complete with kicks.

Blaydes cardio is a strength, he is unbelievably strong, determined, and confident yet not overly agile or nimble.

Blaydes has competed against heavyweight elite over several years and surely sees this as his best opportunity to be crowned but does that mean he’ll win the fight?

Curtis Blaydes has a single shortcoming, it’s a glaring one as unfortunately, Blaydes has the proverbial glass jaw.

This is not to say he can’t take a punch or battle toe-to-toe but since 2018 his three losses were all to worthy, power based legitimate heavyweight talents who in exchanges were able to blast Blaydes and drop him cheek first onto the floor.

This is the heavyweight division of the UFC and having to try to hide the inability to take one flush on the face is no secret, especially when the athlete is young, driven, confident and does not believe he can be stopped despite past results.

It’s my belief that Blaydes is playing an extremely dangerous game against this Aspinall kid. I’ll also mention that it was Blaydes that called this fight out.

For Aspinall, it’s simple.

He’s smashed each opponent put in front of him since these two first fought. Now he gets the opportunity to correct the blemish on his record that was put there after an injury in a fight that lasted 15 seconds.

Aspinall’s slightly younger than Blaydes, he’ll be taller, more athletic and the faster man in the cage.

Both of these men fight with a full arsenal of skill so it will be interesting to determine where this fight goes and who takes it there.

What Blaydes must execute is enough forward pressure to put Aspinall on the defensive and take this fight right to him. This strategy allows him his best chance to win.

It’s likely that Aspinall’s agility, speed and precision striking will sooner than later force the more methodical Blaydes into attempting to wrestle.

When that transition happens and I believe it will, this fight like an aged Cabernet will begin to open up.

Because if Blaydes is forced to apply wrestling he then leaves himself exposed to Aspinall’s forte’s which is straight knees, power uppercuts and leveraged crosses as he rushes inside to engage.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -166

Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135 Light Heavyweight (205lbs)

These two fighters will each step into the cage on Saturday in must win situations.

Bukauskas won his first two UFC fights before Vitor Petrino finished him in the second round last November.

Bukauskas is a durable, willing striking based fighter with decent wrestling, but his strike defense needs improvement.

Prachnio is the older fighter at thirty-six, but he’s just as desperate for a win as is Bukauskas which enhances the volatility of this fight.

Prachnio is 2-2 in the UFC since 2022, he has competed against worthy competition, and he enters this one off a win.

In my judgement, Prachnio is the more complete striker, he has more innate power than does Bukauskas and he’s been in against a higher degree of pedigreed opponents. For that reason, I ‘ll declare him as a live underdog in a fight that is critical to each man.

Prachnio +135

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week as the fights are in England. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

GambLou

It’s Business!

We forge into the second half of the UFC calendar year with UFC LV94 this week.

Last week favorites went 6-3-3 last week pushing the winning percentage this year for chalk to 67.1%.

When will underdog correction present itself…will an underdog correction arise?

I trust that a corrections will transpire before the end of the year.

When? That’s a question I can’t answer as we have six months.

Digital results stand 16-13 +6.03u after last week’s release of Drew Dober failed against a young, faster more fluent fighter in Jean Silva.

Turning to LV 94, Saturday’s fights begin at 2pm PT with preliminary action and 5 pm PT for the main card. The card features twelve scheduled bouts but only two fights pit athletes weighing 170lbs. and above into the reduced confines of the 25’ APEX octagon.

One final note about late July/August in the UFC. This time of year can be stressful for veteran UFC athletes as they have tremendous pressure on them to perform and win.

These middle tier (talent and paygrade) UFC combatants must win to maintain/enhance their standing in the organization against fellow UFC athletes trying to do the same.

These vets must differentiate themselves from the wave of young, inexpensive, and inexperienced labor flowing into the organization from Dana White’s Contender series.

This presents tremendous pressure, but these fighters know that if they ‘put on a show’ they’ll get paid and recognized.

The focus, desperation, and determination this time of year often makes for reckless forward pressing aggression in bouts which is exactly the business the UFC is in.

I believe we’ll see this week as we saw glimpses of last week, violent displays from athletes who are dealing with this exact pressure to remain relevant and who are fighting literally for their careers.

These fighters’ names are less recognizable to mainstream fight fans exemplified by the fact that this card is populated with six athletes’ arriving from Brazil while another four ship in from South Korea.

Just like last week, the names may be obscure, but the fighting will be fierce.

Virna Jandiroba -140 vs. Amanda Lemos +120 women’s strawweight (115lbs.) main event

Fifth ranked Jandiroba faces third ranked Lemos for an extremely compelling fight in the strawweight division between Brazilian contenders.

Lemos, 3-1 in her last four UFC events, is the slightly longer, taller athlete in the cage. She’s a ferocious striker who puts massive pronunciation behind any of her strikes or spinning techniques. She’s extremely aggressive, fast, and mean as a junk yard dog.

Lemos can finish a fight from any position in the cage and is just as capable of drawing taps from opponents as she is knocking them out of their consciousness. What Lemos sometimes fails to administer to however is her pace and on occasion she can find herself struggling late in bouts.

In Jandiroba we have a more strategic grappler as I handicap her. She’s nowhere near as devastating with her striking arsenal and in fact she’ll only try to stand with Lemos long enough to embrace and cling to her for that’s her initial step to success.

Jandiroba must discover a way to envelop Lemos, leverage her against the fence then maul Lemos to transition this fight to the floor. If she can execute that plan, she is likely to earn victory here because her type of steady, matriculated output allows her to compete for thirty minutes let alone fifteen.

What separates these two for me is who each has been in the octagon with and based on the more stringent competition, I must regard Lemos as the athlete I believe earns victory in the APEX Saturday.

Lemos +120

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -215

Lean over.

Steve Garcia -135 vs. Seung woo Choi + 110 Featherweight (145lbs)

These two fighters are in this position to stir frenzy as each are savage strikers.

Garcia, a southpaw will hold slight height and reach edges while Choi arrives the younger fighter.

Garcia who fights out of Jackson-Wink in Albuquerque is a forward pressing boxer, Muay Thai striker who aggressively seeks engagement at every forward step. His single point of focus is to place himself in front of the opponent in order to stand firm then heavy haymakers. In Garcia’s case, his power shots can be straight piercing jabs, solid hooks and crosses and bludgeoning leg kicks.

His counterpart Choi is also a deft kickboxer/Mauy Thai striker, so his forward pressing attack revolves around his ability to work his way inside via the teep-kick and calf attack then complete his entry with hand striking and elbows.

Choi, 1-3 in his last four enters off of an impressive win despite the fact that he has been susceptible to power punchers prior.

Once the bell for this fight chimes, I see two determined long lethal striking talents meeting in the center of the octagon to careen kicks and elbows off one another’s domes.

Choi’s been in with the more formidable opponent but has not fared well against them nor has he remained highly active recently as this is his first bout in almost a year.

Garcia is an angry, aggressive instigator and though this may represent a slight step up in class of opponent for him, it’s my take that his aggressive nature and certain power advantage will be enough for him to get his hand raised in what I handicap to be an all-out stand-up war.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -195

Miranda Maverick -205 vs. Dione Barbosa +180 women’s flyweight (125lbs)

Maverick is a wrestling-based dynamo who is a forward pressing problem. Fighting out of team Elevation in Colorado the tiny tornado has been training through a full camp for a fight on this date until that fight was altered and the organization found a replacement so Maverick could keep her fight.

From Brazil Barbosa travels to the US for her sophomore UFC battle after winning her debut at UFC 301 in May.

She’s thirty-two and will be the taller fighter in the cage as well, she’ll be the least experienced athlete which compounds the complexity of this matchup for her.

Barbosa travels across the globe on short notice with the challenge of taking on a relentless wresting wiz who has had a full camp to prepare for a fight on this date.

Barbosa’s striking is still relatively pedestrian, and she’ll surely attempt to use Maverick’s aggression against her in order to work her way into some form of clasp then attempt to transition into a submission attempt.

The issue with that Barbosa plan is that Maverick at twenty-seven years of age has a depth of UFC experience against the elite of the division as well she’s faced fighters with a diversity of skill sets.

To say this is a tough ask for Ms. Barbosa is an understatement.

Maverick’s depth of experience, her tenacity and most especially her wrestling chops work together in this fight to earn her a one-sided victory which based on the total in this fight appears to be a decision.

Maverick is a prime parlay piece or a straight up opportunity.

Maverick -205/Garcia -135 Parlay

1 unit invested returns a potential 1.59u

Total in this Maverick fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -345

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops this Friday around noon hour PT. Access it for all of my final UFC LV94 releases at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the animosities.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

This week the UFC competes in Denver, Colorado where a summer crowd, a larger 30’ cage and fight influencing altitude may all come into play.

Again, this week, the UFC was given little notice of a main event cancellation. They reacted by shuffling athletes to provide a worthy main event for Denver after doing an amazing job inserting relevant combatants with both co-main and main events of UFC 303 two weeks ago.

My respects go out to the UFC matchmakers.

At the halfway point of 2024, UFC favorites are at a multi-year high of 182-82-4 or 67.9% which is usual as favorite percentages usually run in the 62/63% range.

Digital results entering July stand: 16-13; +6.03u; +119 Ave.

The prelims for this week’s fight card are 4pm PT while the main fight card begins at 7pm PT.

This Denver fight card features eleven bouts, four of the fights being held in weight divisions of 170lbs and greater which translates to approximately 10% higher percentage of finishes.

Rose Namajunas -225 vs. Tracy Cortez +185 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event

Cortez steps into this bout on short notice for she was preparing for a short, aggressive wrestling-based athlete next week as opposed to the angular, former title holder and world class athlete in Namajunas.

Cortez, a wrestling-based fighter from Phoenix, AZ jumped at the chance to step up in class to compete against an elite like Namajunas, a fighter that could potentially dominate Cortez with her refined weaponry and experience.

Yet, it’s not out of the question that Cortez is able to ‘wrestle Rose up’ and boomerang a ground control victory into instant notoriety. Surely wrestling will be her approach.

Let’s remember that Cortez has competed at bantamweight and dropped into 125 while Rose did her best work at 115lbs. and is moving up in weight.

This bout being at flyweight may mark ‘two ships passing in the night’ as far as career trajectory is concerned or it could be an announcement by Namajunas that she’s here for this division.

Rose has several factors going for her.

She is an acknowledged world-class talent who has experienced opponent changes not to mention having already competed in five round main event performances numerous times.

Her fighting intelligence is a weapon, and she has fared well since moving to flyweight. Though she does not appear to move as she did when she was a strawweight, Rose competes at home and has no adjustment to make for the drastic elevation change as cardio has never been a question with Namajunas.

Cortez must have an aggressive approach and an unwillingness to compete at distance. She is going to have to overcome much in order to earn success in this fight besides and that’s before dealing with elevation.

The short notice for a main event situation, compounded by the Denver altitude then finally, Namajunas as adversary together spell a challenge for Cortez who may not be quite ready to overcome it all.

Namajunas and Cortez opened as a -110 pick and now Namajunas is -225!

That seems a mis-priced opening number.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -280

Jean Silva -115 vs. Drew Dober -105 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Brazilian Silva is a cold unadulterated finisher of fights.

Since 2021 he has finished each of the ten foe’s he has faced in the first round save for his last bout two weeks ago when he took Charles Jourdain an accomplished UFC featherweight out in the second round.

Prior to that bout Silva missed weight by some two plus pounds and now is assigned to turn around in just a couple of weeks. He now must compete up in weight (probably where Silva belongs anyway) at 155lbs. and against a formidable and well-established fighter in Dober who is also a natural born banger.

Silva steps well up in class of opponent for this tilt and when I consider who Dober has been in with, what he’s faced and the forms of threats he has seen then it becomes only Silva’s early finishing power that I fear with this investment.

Should this fight get into the second round then it could be target practice for Mr. Dober on a gassed and perhaps over matched Jean Silva.

Dober -105

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds over -125

The ‘Bout Business Podcast are my final releases for this week. It’s available Friday Noon PST. Access it only at GambLou.com

 _GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Last week was the time to take advantage of the torrid run favorites this year in the UFC as the parlay of Sean Strickland -240/Jailton Almeida -170 earned 1.0 unit on a 1.06 unit investment.

To date digital readers are in the black as profitability stands 14-9 +8.73u.

10-2 were favorites at UFC 302 pushing chalk to 149-67-4 this year or 67.7% which is as high as I can remember tracking for favorites in the UFC during this past decade!

Regression must be coming but the great question… is when?

This week the UFC is in Louisville, KY for a card with thirteen scheduled fights, six of which are at the Welterweight (170lbs) division or heavier which may contribute to a higher potential for finishes as fight at 170 pounds and higher finish inside the distance at a clip of just over 59%.

Let’s Keep this momentum moving!

Nassourdine Imavov -130 vs. Jarod Cannonier +110 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked Imavov of Russian descent fighting out of France is an ascending talent in this division.

With a solid boxing base Imavov, 13-4 professionally has been developed his mixed martial arts arsenal under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.

5-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has been guided against more diversely and highly talented athletes every step of the way during his brief time in the UFC.

Now he gets his second firm test against a top five talent in Cannonier. In his first top five battle, Imavov was dominated by last week’s co main event winner and ex middleweight champion Sean Strickland.

The question to date is, has Imavov developed enough fight diversity and experience in the year and a half since he was squelched by Strickland to be able to compete effectively against Cannonier who by the way defeated Strickland?

In fourth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete finitely focused on a final run at a title for Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age though he competes like a man many years younger.

Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya.

At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested and his desire to earn another title opportunity drives him.

In this matchup Cannonier will possess advantages in speed, footwork, grappling  and power while Imavov will be the man twelve years younger who will also hold a four inch height advantage. Reach advantage goes to Cannonier which in essence negates any advantage Imavov’s height provides him.

Once the bell for this bout begins, it will be Cannonier who is the forward pressing aggressor while it will be up to Imavov to hold his ground and attempt to bully, berate and batter Cannonier as Cannonier forges ahead to gain pocket position then unload on Imavov.

Both of these men are durable and a finish by either seems unlikely at this point as expressed by the total in this fight coming 4.5 rounds to the over -160.

Imavov believes he’s ready to take the top five position from Cannonier and Cannonier believes that by slaying this young ascending talent he only solidifies further his claim to be the next middleweight in line for a title shot.

I believe Cannonier’s physical attributes, his mental capacity, experience and level of competition faced all provide him advantage in this fight.

Cannonier +110

L’udovit Klein -130 vs. Thiago Moises +110 lightweight (155lbs.)

This fight will be crazy as two willing lefties will get the Louisville crowd lit up with their striking prowess.

The Slovakian Klein is 5-2 in the UFC but his wins were earned against dubious talent many of whom are no longer in the organization. An athlete with a boxing background complimented with some BJJ, Klein steps up his level of opponent faced considerably when he climbs into the cage Saturday against Moises.

Moises is a black belt in BJJ who has trained among the slew of elite and diversely talented lightweight athletes in Florida’s ATT gym before returning to Brazil for this camp to train with the Fighting Nerds team, a white hot group of Brazilian killers.

Moises will be the taller, larger fighter in the cage Saturday and he’s competed against an elite level of lightweight competition which is how and why I favor him in this confrontation.

I believe Moises is the faster striker with more developed BJJ acumen and it’s his comprehensive Jiu Jitsu acumen that sets his advantage in this bout.

Moises +110

Total in this fight 2.5Rds Over -195

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is 15-4 over the last three UFC events and stacking profit each week. The podcast drops this Friday around Noon PT and is available at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy this Louisville fight card.

GambLou

It’s Business!

From South America to St. Louis, Mo. we track for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

This fight slate is comprised of thirteen scheduled bouts to be competed in the larger thirty-foot octagon with participants arriving from thirteen differing countries.

Six of the thirteen bouts feature athletes 170lbs or greater.

Finish rates in three round fights comprised of fighters weighing 170lbs and above are 58.3%, so we may witness violent finishes on this card, at least that is the hope!

Last week Alexandre Pantoja -185 earned a close decision victory over Steve Erceg as well my release of big dog Anthony Smith +435 won via first round submission. What was not anticipated was how efficiently Smith would dispose of Vitor Petrino his Brazilian foe as I advised the over 1.5 Rounds. Smith disposed of Petrino some two minutes into the fight.

Digital profit for 2024 now stands 12-8 +7.73 after last week’s success. The task this week is to keep momentum rolling as we search for profitability in this week’s event.

Derrick Lewis -145 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento +125 heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Brazilian mixed martial artist Nascimento is the fifteenth ranked athlete in the division. The thirty-one-year-old is a blue belt in BJJ and overall, a well-rounded grappler/striker who steps up in level of competition for this his first five round main event.

Derrick Lewis is now thirty-nine and ranked twelfth in the division. Lewis is not a mixed martial artist rather he is a behemoth of a man who stalks opponents down in order to club them into unconsciousness with his singularly dimensioned one strike KO power.

Lewis is short on footwork, take down defense and stamina though early in fights he displays athleticism and explosion though the limit for his explosiveness is around four minutes, after that Lewis is a telegraphing headhunter.

At this stage of his career, when Lewis fights, he’s calculating how best to expend his precious energy as his one way to earn victory is to touch the opponent on the teeth. With one detonation Lewis can put adversaries to sleep with one telegraphed connection.

That is Lewis’ plan of attack in any fight.

Nascimento’s last three bouts have all gone to decision so he can effectively compete for fifteen minutes, and it must be his approach to take Lewis past the first five minutes to burden the ‘Black Beast,’ force him to tire and therefore make any takedown attempt that much easier to execute.

The issue for Nascimento may be his chin. Is his sole loss earlier in his career to journeyman Chris Daukaus who is no longer in the organization, Nascimento was knocked out and Daukaus has fractions of the speed and power that Lewis holds.

Should Nascimento who opened a pick-em against Lewis be ‘chinny’ as that fight against Daukaus indicated then it is fair to say that he is in real danger against a profuse pounder like Lewis.

The total in this fight is lines 1.5 Under -145 which is concerning if one is trying to make a case for the Brazilian traveling to the ‘show me state’ to compete against a pure knockout threat like Lewis.

Pass

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs. Nursultan Ruziboev +145 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

We last saw eleventh ranked Buckley 18-6 overwhelm top fifteen ranked Vicente Luque with his power striking in New York March 30^th. That display put Buckley in the rankings as well put the division on notice that this man is a natural born finisher.

Buckley rarely employs a wrestling base developed in high school as his vicious fighting style was groomed in the streets of East St. Louis.

Besides fighting in his home city, Buckley totes momentum into this fight and he is exuding great confidence. Confidence is one weapon UFC fighters often boomerang into dynamic success.

Ruziboev, 34-8-2 enters this fight with vast experience though there are legitimate questions surrounding the authenticity of his record as well the caliber of athletes he’s faced.

Fighting out of the Renzo Gracie camp in Philly which is known for its cultivation and refining of wrestling/grappling based talent, Ruziboev enters this fight off an impressive KO finish of the modestly talented Sedriques Dumas which he accomplished March 30^th on the same card as his opponent Buckley.

Ruziboev will hold seven inches of height supremacy and another four inches of leg reach besides his vast advantage grappling.

To date, we have not witnessed Ruziboev tussle against pedigreed UFC talent nor have we watched him have to endure any form or real trouble. That changes in this fight.

Once this scrap starts Ruziboev will look to distance himself strategically from the aggressive keg of TNT that is Buckley. Buckley will be impatient in his attempt to gain inside access and detonate hooks, crosses, elbows, and kicks on the tall man from Uzbekistan.

Ruziboev has everything to gain in this most intriguing battle. He must weather the furious first five minutes of this fight then find a way to clasp ahold of and press the explosive Buckley against the fence then onto the floor.

Then, after Buckley’s explosiveness is usurped by battle (that is the hope anyway) the fight could well turn to the towering, but well-structured grappler Ruziboev who uses a grinding methodology as opposed to immediate and sudden impact.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angelo Dundee used to chime and I regard this fight as exhibit ‘A’ for that quote.

Buckley opened -150 for this fight and his price has risen steadily early in the week.

The total in this fight is 1.5 over -130 which indicates potential success for the Uzbeki grappler as I do see this fight eclipsing that total.

I am back to an underdog release this week.

Ruziboev +145

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my releases for this fight card will drop Friday mid-day Pacific time. Look for it at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.