Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 299 O’Malley vs. Vera: Drowned Suga?

This week UFC 299 takes place in Miami Florida. The early preliminary bouts begin at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 5pm PT.

This fight slate is stacked from top to bottom with each fight featuring athletes capable of headlining any fight night or PPV card on their own.

Let us break down a few of the dynamic bouts on this card.

Sean O’Malley -275 Champion vs. Marlon Vera +225 Bantamweight (135lbs) title

O’Malley is currently the UFC’s ‘lighting in a bottle’ as he has similar magnetism/drawing power to Conor McGregor and the Diaz brothers when those fighters were at their apex.

‘Sugar’ is wildly popular with the under thirty-five demographic and his fighting style utilizes his height and reach advantages to the utmost degree. O’Malley compliments those physical traits with a fluidity of defensive movement, sharp snapping strikes and elite footwork.

‘The Suga show’ has evolved into a champion mixed martial artist who is tall, long, precise with his leveraged striking and carries more power than most opponents believe. Further, O’Malley trains diligently on his craft and possesses far more advanced grappling and take down defense than he has been able to display in past bouts.

His opponent, fifth ranked Ecuadorian athlete Marlon Vera is not flashy rather he is gritty, grimy, and dawg-like in his approach to fighting. Vera’s not as gifted physically nor is he as fluent an overall fighter as his opponent but the weaponry Vera totes to the cage is mostly mental. Determination, focus, cardio, and the ability to wear opponents down physically/emotionally by applying unrelenting forward pressure are his assets.

This is a rematch of a 2020 bout that Vera won in the first round by incapacitating O’Malley’s beanpole legs with planned, bludgeoning leg kicks.

In this bout we will see Vera attempt to apply pressure from the opening bell to try to back O’Malley up and force him to use energy in his defense. He will surely work to squelch O’Malley’s ability to move by attacking those legs to incapacitate the champion.

O’ Malley for his part will need to maintain spacing which should not be an issue in the larger thirty-foot octagon. From distance he will then attempt to pepper Vera with jabs, counterstrikes, knees, and elbows as the edgy Ecuadorian presses inward to engage.

O’Malley -200 was the opening price for this fight, he now stands -285 over Vera whose takeback is +245.

Vera’s as or more determined as he was in their first bout, but it is O’Malley whose game has evolved more since these two first met. In that first bout Vera opened the favorite but O’Malley was quickly into the favorite position based on his overwhelming popularity rather than his mixed martial arts acumen.

For those reading, the time to jump the improved O’Malley is now as this price is SURE to rise until the bell for round one chimes.

Vera backers would be wise to remain patient and take every penny of value as Vera who must take this fight into the championship rounds to find success.

One question that still surrounds ‘Sugar’ is his ability to fight at a frenetic pace for more than twelve to fifteen minutes. Vera’s plan will be to drain O’Malley’s gas tank and suck the snap out of ‘Sugar’ then try to dominate him late.

The O’Malley’s plan will be to slice and dice Vera into a bloody pulp by employing constant side to side movement, strike from angles and employ precision counterstriking as Vera attempts to work his way to attack.

Many believe O’Malley is in a favorable matchup here as the UFC takes advantage of his earning power/popularity, but I am not so sure I buy into this.

Vera must be taken seriously in a bout I handicap to be closer than the betting lines indicate.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -165

Benoit St. Denis -215 vs. Dustin Poirier +185 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

St. Denis is a decorated former French first military paratrooper who is huge for the weight class, he is a black belt in Judo and has torn through the organization by winning all four of his victories via finish. His only blemish in the UFC was in his first bout, a fight he took on ultra short notice.

St. Denis, ranked twelfth in the lightweight division opened as a -140 favorite in this fight and has been pounded to the current -215 based on his destructive performances albeit against athletes ranked outside of the top fifteen in the division.

Poirier, the third ranked athlete in the division is the shorter fighter in this matchup, he will be giving away an inch of reach and is seven years older than the ferocious Frenchman.

Poirier possesses a wealth of UFC experience. He has a sturdy wrestling base, brilliant striking acumen, deft footwork and has been in with the absolute elite of the division.

Poirier trains at Florida’s ATT gym in Coconut Creek so he can compete at home without the complexity of having to travel. As well he will command the crowd in this war.

When this fight opened, I was astonished that St. Denis came the favorite and I am more perplexed that he has been bet into this current price. It is my judgement that recency bias is heavily influencing the current betting line toward the Frenchman.

Based on the current betting line it is my position that Poirier is being massively disrespected in this fight.

Once this bout begins Poirier will have to deal with the ferocity, power and immediate aggression of St. Denis who has never competed in a headline fight, nor has he ever prepared for or fought in a five-round battle.

I handicap Poirier to have superior fight IQ which cannot be overlooked here, the defensive prowess, patience and the deft striking to systematically break down St. Denis over time. Time, I believe, is the fulcrum of this fight and I am certain Poirier understands this.

It is my position that St. Denis is rushing into competition with an elite mixed martial artist well to quickly than is warranted.

I am committed to betting Poirier in this spot but will continue to monitor this number while it is on the rise to capture the best price advantage on the underdog who I handicap to in fact be the favorite.

Saturday night I believe Poirier awards St. Denis his PhD. in MMA!

Poirier +185 or better

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. -240 Over.

Curtis Blaydes -110 vs. Jailton Almeida -110 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Seventh ranked Almeida is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant who has ascended the heavyweight rankings in abbreviated time.

He is lightning fast for a man that competes at 245lbs, he is extremely durable and has the single-minded approach to haul opponents down to the mat then discover a way to clasp onto an appendage and snap it.

Almeida is shy in size, weight, and UFC experience and as capable as he is with his submission prowess, his offensive/defensive striking is mediocre and in need of much development.

In Blaydes we have the fifth ranked athlete in the division who enters this fight with a complete mixed martial arts arsenal. Blaydes has power and speed in his hands, he is a world class wrestler, and, in this bout, he will own substantial size, reach, and experience advantages.

Blaydes’ challenges in previous bouts revolve around the fragility of his face.

Athlete’s that are able to bash Blaydes beak early in fights often find success but, in this bout, Blaydes height, weight, reach and experience should put him in position to batter Almeida on the feet then transition to wrestling where he the sizable wrestler will reign damage on the smaller grappler from top position.

In the world of mixed martial arts, it is accepted that world class wrestling is kryptonite to excellent BJJ practitioners. It is exactly this formula that puts Blaydes in position to shine come Saturday night.

Blaydes -110

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -150

The GambLou Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT.

Look for my full set of releases there.

I will also appear Friday 6:30AM PT on VSiN’s Follow the Money program where I will share my best releases. Tune up then tune in!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Mexico Moreno vs. Royval: Toe 2 Toe in Mexico!

This week the UFC travels to Mexico City, Mexico for its Fight Night production where the main event features a rematch of Flyweight athletes Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval.

This card offers thirteen bouts eleven of which feature Mexican fighters who find themselves in favorable matchups. There are no athletes on this fight card weighing more than lightweight 155lbs. and all but one matchup is lined at 2.5 total rounds.

Mexico City with its altitude, the larger 30’ octagon and smaller statured athletes may make for a plethora of decisions?

Last week Rober Whittaker shrugged off a vicious head kick late in round one to earn a decision win over Paolo Costa in the co main event. Whittaker’s win pushed my results this year to 2-3 + .85u

Let’s enhance that bottom line with this week’s release.

Brandon Moreno -250 vs. Brandon Royval +200 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Royval, who trains at elevation in Colorado arrives at this main event fresh off a five round unanimous decision loss to current champion Alexandre Pantoja last December.

Royval, a southpaw will have height and reach advantages over Moreno, the former champion of the division. Royval’s been able to conquer all the division’s contenders save for the two elite talents in current champion Pantoja and Moreno who just lost his title to Pantoja a few months ago.

To break through and earn a third crack at Pantoja will not be an easy task understanding that the Mexican fight crowd, a voracious one at that will be whole heartedly supporting Moreno, Mexico’s first ever UFC champion.

Royval’s strengths are his unusual lengthy frame, his ability to move in unorthodox, unpredictable fashion and his determination to finally break through and defeat one of the two most dominant flyweights in the division’s history.

It was in November of 2020 when these two first tussled and Royval, a black belt in BJJ had to take a difficult loss because he injured his shoulder and was unable to continue. Royval has improved drastically since their first bout, and he has worked diligently to earn this opportunity realizing a 3-2 record since that defeat with both losses coming at the hands of Pantoja.

In Moreno we have the former champion and the pride of Mexico. Moreno is also a black belt in BJJ but he is also a deft boxer with the standard Mexican granite chin.

Moreno’s coming off a dynamically close split decision loss to Pantoja this past July and it seems clear that the victor here will get another crack at the current champion.

While Moreno’s giving up height and length to Royval, he owns a wealth of championship, five round main event experience. He’s also a year younger than his foe and he’ll have hordes of feverous fans fueling his fury.

Where Royval is unpredictable and flamboyant with his strikes, flying knees and kicks, Moreno is systematic in his approach to working the body then taking the head. This will be a terrific clash of styles.

Both men are competent on the feet, but it is Moreno who possesses the more complete wrestling/grappling attack and I do believe we will see him exercise that ability in this bout. Crowding the longer, taller Royval together with forcing him backwards and into defending takedowns will go a long way in usurping the energy from the Coloradan.

If there is a chink in the Moreno armor, it may be that he has been in numerous wars since these two last fought. Royval’s overall improvement coupled with his ability to compete at elevation will be telling in his chances to get his hand raised in this bout.

In a fight that I believe goes to decision, this week’s release:

Fight starts round 4 -175

Round props selection at DraftKings

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -140

Manuel Torres -185 vs. Chris Duncan +155 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This is the only bout on this slate lined at 1.5Rds with the under is priced -200. From the total we may imply that this fight is going to be a banger and from my handicap that inference would be completely correct.

In this one, Duncan 11-1 ships in from Scotland although he has been training in Florida’s ATT for weeks, a gym where there are at least five top fifteen ranked lightweights in the world for him to take rounds against.

Duncan is tough, durable and possesses wrestling acumen though he prefers to situate himself in the center of the cage, stand wide and zing hooks, crosses, and kicks at opponents with the singular goal of cracking them unconscious.

Duncan’s defensive abilities are my biggest issue with his fighting as takes 3.8 significant strikes per minute which is something extremely dangerous against this opponent.

Torres, 14-2 is the local, he conditioned to training at Mexico City’s extreme elevation and while he is more than willing to trade hooks, his strikes tend to be straighter, then supplemented with damaging elbows and knees right up the middle.

Torres has not seen the second round of a mixed martial arts fight since 2018 as he is a pure cold-hearted finisher yet his ability to compete in a long, tough, grueling battle is a justifiable concern.

Once the fight begins, it is my judgement that it is in Duncan’s best interest to wrestle the Mexican up in this fight to sap him of his energy then take advantage of him in the later rounds.

For Torres, he will attack Duncan from the opening bell, but he MUST control his distance and make certain in his zeal to destroy that he does not rush into a Duncan takedown for Torres has little to no ability to wrestle in any capacity.

In a fight where I expect both athletes to ‘put it on’ their opponent it is the durability and perseverance of Duncan that forces me to believe that this total offers value to the over.

Torres opened -155 in this bout, he dipped to -120 when I released him on my Monday ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast and now his price has now escalated to the current -175.

My handicap of this bout is that it goes over 1.5 Rds. while my conservative nature says to use the prop, “Fight starts round 2”, however that prop has not been put up on the DraftKings menu yet, so I will hold off as my deadline calls.

Lean Over 1.5 but will wager “Fight starts round 2”. I expect that price to have a plus sign next to it once released….

My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops midday Friday and is accessible at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 298 Volkanovski vs. Topuria” Terminally Ilya?

Interested in accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast? Hit the BOUT BUSINESS tab at the top of this webpage for specifics!

This week UFC 298 takes place from Los Angeles with an internationally populated fight slate featuring athletes from China to Equator, Australia to Wales, Brazil to Jamaica and all points in between.

Four fights offer us a look at debuting athletes while eight bouts highlight veteran competitors facing off in high stakes bouts with each combatant looking to enhance their career trajectories.

Last week Rodolfo Viera submitted Armen Petrosyan in the first round of their fight. Petrosyan, needed to survive the first round against a fresh, strong Brazilian counterpart in order to have the fight begin to turn his way yet that was not to be.

I stand 1-3 -.15 heading into this week.

Let’s dig right into UFC 298 which kicks off Saturday at 3pm PT with early prelims followed by the main card which starts at 7pm PT and features a handful of highly competitive and potentially explosive bouts.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Ilya Topuria +105 Featherweight (145lbs.) Championship

Undefeated and third ranked Topuria, of Georgian descent fights out of Spain where he was raised. He possesses a strong Greco Roman wrestling base to go with his black belt in BJJ. Topuria’s striking is serviceable enough to allow him to compete standing until which time he can clasp onto opponents in order to press them against the cage then force then onto the mat. From there his single point of focus is to choke them unconscious or force then to tap from an array of submission attempts which come as second nature to him.

Topuria, 14-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC will be two inches taller than the champion and eight years the younger athlete in this title fight. He sports a +1.39 strike per minute ratio and lands 2.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. He realizes 1.5 submission attempts per fifteen minutes of fight time.

These numbers, while sound must be deciphered by comprehending the level of competition Topuria has faced.

Topuria is young, he’s overly cocky and has talked his way into this championship fight after defeating only two pedigreed, legitimate UFC featherweights. Many deem Topuria ready for this challenge and he must be respected in this bout as he is aggressive, unrelenting with his forward pressure, and arrives to this fight with momentum.

That stated, he has been yammering into any microphone available announcing to anyone listening that it’s his ‘destiny’ to defeat current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria’s bravado and approach to this substantial step up in class seems quite a risky one to say the least and Volkanovski, a silent assassin has taken note.

In Alexander Volkanovski we have arguably the greatest featherweight to ever step into the cage which is a strong statement considering that list includes Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.

Volkanovski’s 26-3 professional record and his 13-2 result in the UFC does not come close to telling the complete story as both of his UFC losses have come at the hands of current UFC Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has dominated a division ten pound heavier than featherweight. Volkanovski’s only other defeat came years ago in his fourth professional bout in the welterweight division.

Most, if not all combat sport pundits regard Makhachev as the current pound for pound athlete in the organization so those recent losses come with absolutely no shame rather total respect.

At the featherweight level, Volkanovski has dominated all challengers. He owns decision victories over the aforementioned Jose Aldo as well he’s defeated former champion Max Holloway thrice in closely contested five round battles resulting in decisions.

Volkanovski’s +2.77 strikes landed per minute is impressive but even more so when one considers who he has competed against in the cage.

Volkanovski will be giving away two inches of height and eight years of age to Topuria but his recent domination of Yair Rodriguez clearly displays his ability to dominate any and all forms of challenge from athletes competing at featherweight.

The intrigue in this fight comes by understanding that four months ago Volkanovski took his second bout against the aforementioned lightweight champion Makhachev on teen days’ notice! He was defeated by knockout via head kick in the first round.

After that fight and leading up to this bout, Volkanovski, gave a highly emotional interview where he stated how much he needs to be in training. His demeanor and body language during this interview was disturbing to me. It also came out some time later that he was enjoying the spoils of the layman’s life as he had no fight scheduled leading up to his ten-day notice to fight Makhachev.

Volkanovski opened -175 for this fight and he has been bet down to the current price of just above pick-em.

Usually, I’d be dashing for the betting counter looking to invest in Volkanovski -120. However, his highly emotional interview in early January after the Makhachev bout coupled with the fact that he’s taking on another very dangerous challenger four months removed from being knocked unconscious forces me to hesitate.

This will be Volkanovski’s fourth highly competitive fight in the last calendar year and remember two of those were against an elite champion at a weight class ten pounds higher than his.

Has he allowed his body/brain to fully recoup for this battle at thirty-five years of age? Could he be taking this bout too soon after that KO?

These questions force me to pass on this fight despite the perception that there seems to be an abundance of value on the current champion.

Months ago, I released Topuria +135 on the ‘Bout Business Podcast but that was before he began all the needless yapping. If it were today, I would consider Volkanovski at current pricing or I’d pass all together on a side in this fight.

Total in this fight: 3.5 -125 Over

Robert Whittaker -240 vs. Paolo Costa +210 Middleweight (185lbs.)

New Zealand’s Whittaker is a former champion who has faced the elite of the middleweight division. Since 2014, the divisions third ranked athlete has only lost to current champion Dricus du Plessis and former champion Israel Adesanya.

Whittaker is strong, moves deftly and has power in all appendages. He’s highly decorated with Black belts in hapkido, Gōjū-ryū karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu making him one truly dangerous fighting machine.

He’s looking to bounce after what he, myself and many in the MMA arena regard as a most dismal uncharacteristic performance in that loss to du Plessis.

At thirty-three Whittaker believes he has much more to prove and he can go a long way in displaying that against his sixth ranked Brazilian counterpart Paolo Costa Saturday night.

Costa 14-2 professionally is a man with a chiseled physique and movie star looks. He’s decorated with a black belt in BJJ and does possess power in his kicks and strikes. Costa, 6-2 in the UFC has been inactive since August of 2022 when he scored an uneventful decision over Luke Rockhold a washed athlete with a balsa wood beak who had come out of retirement to take the fight.

At his best Costa has profuse striking power but he is a front runner whose confidence and swagger grows when competing against lesser pedigreed athletes but who’s momentum wanes when placed against world class fighters with elite MMA acumen who can withstand his early barrage then turn the tables and back him up.

The prescription for defeating Costa is simple, just bully the bully.

How well Costa has used his time away from the cage will be apparent early in this fight. It’s my judgement that while desperate for a win, the inactivity and relative low fight IQ he’s displayed throughout his career will be difficult traits for him to overcome understanding the elite athlete he’s going to be in the cage with Saturday.

Whittaker’s been in LA for a couple of weeks now and he’s focused and determined to end this fight violently and make another run for the division’s championship which is certainly withing his ability to accomplish.

Whittaker -250

Total in this fight: Opened 1.5 Rds. -240 to the over but is now lined 2.5Rds -150 Over.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast contains my official releases for this fight card. It will be available Friday just after noon PT and is only available at GambLou.com

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

Gembloux

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, NFL, Profitability, UFC

GambLou 2023 Profitability report; NFL Championship opening lines

This week the AFC and NFC Championships will be contested. As we close down the end of the NFL year let’s take a look at opening lines for these games and review GambLou.com profitability.

At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas: Baltimore opened -3.5ev with a total of 45.5 while in San Francisco, the 49ers came -7 and 52.

These prices may not move too much for numerous reasons this week however I will be tracking the line movement for any opportunities.

GambLou.com 2023 NFL Clients stand 61 and 61, +2.94units representing a 2%ROI

Future wagers released at the beginning of the season that have NOT been recorded yet:

Chiefs Under 11.5 season wins +120; 1.5unit W

Chiefs Under 10.5 season wins +220; .5unit L

Washington Over 6.5 wins +100 1unit L

Houston to win AFC South +220 .35unit W

Houston to win AFC 20/1 .15unit L

Baltimore to win AFC +375 .5unit pending

I’ll invest into the Championship round then into the Super Bowl.

Beating the NFL is no easy task but with the Ravens position pending and a strong Championship performance I look to enhance profitability for myself and all clients.

——————————————–

As January ends my focus becomes exclusively UFC profitability while NHL Stanley Cup Due Diligence is in full swing.

Last year NHL profitability: 55-46 +25.20units for a 29% ROI

After two UFC events in 2024 GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast Members are 3-5 +.23units for 4%ROI with 3 favorites in upcoming cards earning members Plus money (Yes, that’s correct) and two releases holding positive value based on the pricing today. I’m playing a different game than the hordes making ‘picks’ and selling their swag.

At GambLou.com Investing on select sporting events is strictly Business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Membership UPDATE

‘Bout Business Memberships

Thank you all for such a flattering response to ‘Bout Business participation.

As a note: Please understand that memberships are still available and that any considering the year-long ‘Tap-Out’ Membership will absolutely receive a full year of subscription from the date one signed up.

So, if you jump in March 1st your membership will run until Feb. 28th

Questions?

Lou@GambLou.com

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV84 Magomedov vs. Walker: Johnnie was

For info on the ‘Bout Business Podcast please tap the “‘Bout Business podcast” tab at the top of tis webpage

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Insight the Octagon returns for a seventh year of profitable UFC releases on the most powerful betting platform available; the VSIN digital magazine.

After almost a month off, mixed martial artistry returns featuring athletes from across the world who bring specialized fight weaponry into each matchup. This week from the UFC APEX, LV84 offers a fight slate featuring twelve compelling bouts with athlete’s whose skills and body types range from one end of the fight spectrum to the opposite.

My responsibility is to break down each bout and offer my ‘best bet’ here on these pages for each of the 44/46 weeks in 2024 that the UFC will offer fight enthusiasts it’s productions.

Let’s dig right into this event which commences Saturday at 1pm PT with preliminary action then segway’s to main card competition at 4pm PT.

Magomed Ankalaev -450 vs. Johnnie Walker +375 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Last October these two tangled into the first round when Walker was illegally kneed and poked in the eye when chaos ensued. The bout was called a ‘no contest’ based on a combination of incompetent refereeing and a language barrier between Walker and said ref.

Flash forward to Saturday and these two will be again be presented the opportunity to vie against each other. I must mention that hatred between Brazilian fight athletes and Russian’s is stringent on a day-to-day basis but in this case these two can’t wait to try to inflict maximum damage upon one another.

Seventh ranked Walker, a Brazilian striker now training in Ireland holds impressive size and length advantages over most athletes in the division and in this fight that holds true.

Walker, a brown belt in BJJ rarely employs his grappling preferring instead to utilize his massive size/length and flamboyant freewheeling striking to try to incapacitate opponents with driving knees, spinning kicks, impaling elbows, and fists.

Walker employs an aggressive approach on opponents as his single goal is to crack then unconscious, pick up a bonus check and return to his training.

Walker’s forceful offense is supplemented by a relative lack of take down ability as well he has a chin more fragile than ancient porcelain.

Third ranked Russian Ankalaev enters a winner of nine straight UFC bouts before realizing a questionable draw (which I believe he won) against Jan Blachowicz in a title fight, then NC came against Walker last fall.

Ankalaev has little personality, panache’ or flamboyance but he holds International Master of Sport degrees in both Samba and MMA. These titles are not handed out easily in the realm of Russian MMA as an aside.

Ankalaev’s personality is as reflective of his approach to fighting as is Walker’s. Walker the aggressive matrix like striker pitted against Ankalaev a systematic, patient grappling machine.

Ankalaev employs a solid striking base in order to enter the pocket against opponents then his aim is to immediately drag foes to the mat for a complete mauling. His strength is immeasurable and is complimented by his cardio which allows him to overwhelm opponents with unrelenting forward grappling pressure.

There exists an abundance of angst between these two and Saturday Walker is going to try to kick Ankalaev’s head into the upper deck while Ankalaev will try to use this five-round bout to first exhaust the monstrous striker then take him down to the floor and choke him out of consciousness.

I believe Ankalaev dominates this bout after the first round or so but will study props in order to find more opportunity than his current straight up price.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -166

Manuel Kape -270 vs. Matheus Nicolau +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

This is a rematch of a bout Nicolau won via split decision in 2021 when he was a full-grown man facing Kape who was then just a shadow of the fighter he is today.

Nicolau rattled off four fine wins before running into an elbow and being KO’d by Brandon Royval in his last bout. Nicolau, a Black belt in BBJ with decent striking enters this fight on the bounce and looking to reestablish himself as the next challenger to the title.

Kape, of Angolan and Portuguese descent is lighting fast and supremely athletic. He’s primarily a Muay Thai striking based fighter who forces opponents backwards then blisters them with his hand speed and leg movement which allow him to attack from every angle.

Kape’s greatest asset may be his power which is unusual for a fighter so fleet afoot and so athletic.

Once this bout begins it will be Nicolau that must navigate his way inside on the athletic striker in order to both negate his movement and striking distance while smothering him. Fighting Kape forehead to Kape’s chest is the prescription for Nicolau to be successful in this bout for his BJJ stands superior to Kapes.

Kape, meanwhile will use his legs and athleticism to maintain distance and attempt to obliterate Nicolau as he attempts to gain the clinch.

I believe this is a tough assignment for Nicolau and with this co main event being a five round bout I look for Kape to have more time to find Nicolau upon entry.

Kape to win via KO/Sub/DQ +140

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -145

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday just after Noon PT. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

GambLou 2023 fiscal report: Profitable Sports Gaming

GambLou profitability for all 2023 sports except the NFL which is updated through 12-16-23. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

Stanley Cup Playoffs: 55-47 +25.20u +29% ROI (+131)

College World Series: 16-22 +3.13u +8% ROI (+157)

UFC: 103-111 +20.38u +10% ROI (+128)

NFL (through week 14): 49-45 +3.56u +4% ROI 

It’s strictly business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

The ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast introduction

Today the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast, a comprehensive review of the opening lines for each week’s UFC card drops for its inaugural session. Get it on my front page or anywhere you get your podcasts!

The 10-12 minute podcast will focus on each week’s UFC opening fight lines, where they have moved and where they may move. It’s a terrific supplement/precursor to the ’Bout Business Podcast as it highlights early thoughts and delivers potential advantageous wagers.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

Speaking of the ‘Bout Business Podcast, on January 1st 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.

The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.

I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:

  • Everything I do here is business. First proceeds from any podcast income will go to paying off the cost of the new GambLou.com webpage.
  • Green Roll Media is my podcast partner and for two years they have worked with me to initiate our momentum. In 2024, proceeds from podcast memberships (in conjunction with webpage fulfillment) will be paid to Green Roll. They have produced a brilliant podcast for our profitability and it’s time they too receive compensation for their investment into ‘Bout Business Podcast success.

MOST IMPORTANT

  • Investors who sign up for the podcast’s yearly membership (the Tap out, $199.99) will be provided regular updates on the flow of monetary contributions to the Mission.

For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.

So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.

As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.

The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.

Request

My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.

For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.

Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com

Thank you for any consideration

Louis Finocchiaro

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Deposits; Sneak-Teep Podcast

The Sneak-Teep Podcast debuts next Tuesday!

On it, I’ll review opening lines for each week’s UFC event. Line openers, line movement and insight regarding any such movement will be covered in a brief preview on a fight by fight basis.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023 results to date: 91-87 +28.33u 16% ROI (+127)*

*Note: With the JBJ cancellation each of the 2 parlay legs that we had now convert to a 1 team parlay. For Marcos -135 we earn .75u and with Tafa as -200 we earn .50 so there are 2 wins and 1.25u of profit added because of that cancellation.

Beginning January 1 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available ONLY on the GambLou.com webpage. Membership opportunities are available to all. Please go to the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for specifics about my goal of creating a contribution stream to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucsom, AZ.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning accounting

To date the ‘Bout Business Podcast is: 86-86 +23.18u 14% ROI (+127)

This week at UFC LV81 the ‘Bout Business Podcast experienced a slightly losing week realizing a 2-3 tally for <.35> units of profit.

Minimizing loss is as important as maximizing profits so we’ll take the slight thirty-five cent hit and focus ahead on UFC 294 this week.

Starting October 31st will the GambLou ‘Bout Business Sneak-Teep podcast will deliver opening line information each week there is a UFC event. Tune up then tune it!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming