Entering October ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 80-81 +22.58u 14% ROI (+129)
The next fight card is October 7th.
Look for the ‘Bout Business, Sneak Teep Podcast, a weekly opening line report for UFC cards to begin Tuesday October 31st. Scary!
GambLou weekly UFC profitability took a step backwards last week as I realized a 0-4 -3.5unit evening Saturday in the UFC.
While it’s never easy to report loss, it’s part of the landscape of running a successful business and besides I’ve had so few losing nights thus year that this is easy to account for. I did after all use only a half unit on Christo Giagos which saved us a half a unit.
Rarely do I sweep a UFC board and rarely will I get blanked, each has occurred in the last four weeks which is funny. I would expect it to be some time before wither happen again… I presume.
NFL is now 2 weeks into the season so I’ll begin to post mid-week observations and rants pertaining to NFL starting this week.
UFC 2023: 77-78 +22.80u 15%ROI (+130)
Never in my wildest imaginations did I believe that Sean Strickland would actually execute the proper plan of attack to clasp the middleweight title away from former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland with his one-sided decision win has left the MMA community dumbfounded heading into this week’s card.
Now this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas comes ‘Noche UFC’ an event described by the UFC as, “The UFC brings an action-packed card to T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day for the first time ever. It has become a great tradition in combat sports to hold big fights on September 16th, and this year we’re honoring our UFC fans and fighters from Mexican communities with an inaugural Noche UFC.”
On this fight card are six true Mexican fighters and another three of Mexican heritage now residing in the US. They’ll take on other athletes from around the globe in this event highlighted by current Mexican flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s first defense which is a rematch with former champion Valentina Shevchenko who Grasso submitted to earn the title this past March.
Last week we realized great displeasure by wagering on the ‘Pleasure man’ Anton Turkalj. We step back in profitability with the goal of enhancing that bottom line with this week’s release.
Champion Alexa Grasso +140 vs. Valentina Schevchenko -165 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) title
This line opened months ago Schevchenko -225. Immediately after release I advised ‘Bout Business Podcast listeners to attack that Grasso +195 price. As we can see that price is long gone and the current number depicts a more realistic price on this bout in my judgement.
Shevchenko’s shown an ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life a little bit.
While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what I was taught by ol’ Angelo Dundee many years ago and I have found this to be so true of fighters.
Dundee would warn of the paradox in this manner; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s they’ve longed for from their fighting success, it’s that notoriety, money and distraction coming from the public accolades that end up diluting the fighter’s skills. Yes, success corrodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.
Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to overcome any obstacle. However, she’s now thirty-five and has been competing with absolutely every world class adversary the organization put in front of her since 2015.
Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight it will be 70% of her pride yearning to recapture that title substantiated with 30% grit, determination and nasty.
For Grasso, she’s has months to reprepare for this second challenge. The old boxing saying that fighters become 35% better once they clasp the championship is not inaccurate in my judgement.
In March Grasso utilized speed, timing and her specific plan for success which ended up being enough to earn her the title. So now Grasso and camp know they had the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this tussle, how will they adjust if at all?
Different in this fight is the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion but the crowd will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts all yearning to see their fighter dominate. So yes, there is pressure on Grasso entering this rematch.
Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.
Grasso will need to face the fire but she’ll realize too that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully, Valentina! In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know immediately that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title.
Grasso +195 was surely a wrong price. Grasso +150 is more in line. It’s difficult for me to recommend Grasso +150 when I already hold her +195 so I’ll look to a bout other than tis main event to pad 2023 profitability.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -155
This price indicates a potentially close, competitive decision
Tracy Cortez -125 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious +105 women’s flyweight
Tracy Cortez comes from a family of wrestlers. Her forward pressure, clinch attack and cardio are what one would expect from a top end grinding wrestler.
Cortez has faced decent UFC caliber foes and she’s shown an ability to press the pace and utilize her wrestling in the cage. The issue here however is that this is mixed martial arts competition and Cortez, though apt as a pressure wrestler, is lacking with her striking and strike evasion which offers opponents a singularly versed opponent.
Jasmine enters this fight the larger lady, the older fighter and the athlete with deeper experience. She’s also been in the cage with a higher caliber set of opponents. Jasmine is coming off an impressive victory over another forward pressing wrestling- based athlete in Miranda Maverick, one I handicap to be at or above the ability of Ms. Cortez. The Maverick bout could not have come at a better time for Jasmine for it is a terrific precursor to Ms. Cortez as both are very similar in fighting style.
Jasmine’s experience, her size, the absolute bad intention she carries and above all her effective power striking will be the difference in this fight as she’s seen fighters similarly equipped as Cortez. Meanwhile Jasmine represents a substantial step up in class for Cortez and one that will do all she can to finish this fight.
The contention here is that Jasudavicious should be the athlete with the minus next to her name so I find it advantageous to invest in Jasudavicious +105.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -350
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC fight card. This week the Pod will be available around 1pm PT!
Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading
This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!
‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.
2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)
It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!
My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.
Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast results ran 3-3 for a net loss of 0.31u last week however….rather than having won a small amount by using a full unit wager on Anthony Smith, we take the small loss knowing we hold Manon Fiorot .5u for 1.08 units in hand heading into this week’s fight card from Paris.
Remember fight enthusiasts, it’s a marathon not a sprint! Fiorot is currently a -190 favorite.
‘Bout Business Season profitability: 72-72 +20.38u 14% ROI (+128)
Wednesday I’ll post my early look into the Paris, France fight card.
UFC 292 shook the rafters in Boston’s TD Garden when after favorites steamrolled to a 9-1 start, they were thwarted by new champion Sean O’Malley’s counter right hand that was lighting fast, pinpoint precise and landed flush dropping Aljamain Sterling to his teeth. The finish came soon afterward for the new champion.
O’Malley now becomes the superstar the UFC and he have been envisioning. It remains to be determined if the UFC forces their new cash cow to perform against elite talent or with potentially handpicked opponents that may prove less threatening to the more singularly dimensioned O’Malley.
This week the Organization travels to Singapore for a production that will begin with preliminary action at 2am PST Saturday with main card dropping at 5am PT so prepare for early morning mauling from Singapore!
This fight card features many eastern hemisphere fighters many of which are making their debuts or are still very new into the UFC. The card overall offers a handful of brilliant matchups.
This card excites me because handicapping diverse fighting skills coupled with athletes from diverse countries of origin is one of the most fascinating aspect of betting MMA bouts in my judgement.
We have a South Korea vs. Holland opening fight, a Dominican against a Pole heavyweight tussle as well as a Japan vs. a Mexico bantamweight bout set of the main card.
Don’t sleep on this fight card people!
UFC profitability to date: 13-13 -0.85u
Max Holloway -850 vs. Sung Yung Chan aka Korean Zombie +550 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event
Matchmaking for this main event had to be difficult for the UFC as they’re keenly focused on electrifying crowds with local/regional matchups often times placing selected regional talent into somewhat favorable positions for the benefit of fans.
In Singapore we get an eastern hemisphere favorite in the Zombie, currently ranked tenth in the division. More importantly the thirty-six-year-old Jung is from South Korea respectfully called for this fight and enters a large underdog with the opportunity to try to electrify the crowd as young O’Malley did last week.
Jung is decorated like a Christmas tree, he’s a 3rd dan black belt in Hapkido, a 2nd dan black belt in Taekwondo, a Black belt in Judo as well he holds a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu so he’s surely capable on his best night to find any opponent with volume, power and constancy.
Further his reputation in the region is unmatched based on the ferocity of his fight outcomes. Jung has Eight Performance of the Night bonuses, the fastest knockout in Featherweight history, he accomplished the first Twister in UFC history and has been a two-time title challenger.
In Holloway we have one of the greatest featherweight talents of all time, it just so happens that he and Alexander Volkanovski had to dwell in the same era.
Max does not have the listed decorations in various mixed martial arts specialties as does his opponent for he is simply a brown belt in BJJ. However, Holloway will be the younger man in the cage by better than five years, he’s 4” taller, holds an arm reach advantage of 3”, 4” with legs so physical and statistical advantage all favor Holloway.
Holloway came up fighting in the streets of Hawaii which by the way is no easy undertaking as Hawaiian culture has fighting in its DNA. Holloway’s fighting skills may not be described by the awards, belts or degrees he has earned rather it can be described by his success against the world class competition he’s faced.
Holloway is a professor of fight tactics. He’s a deft boxer who knows how to shred opponents with his piston like jab which of course set’s up his combination attack. He applies ridiculous forward pressure to corner opponents then unleash slicing elbows, crushing knees and numbing kicks.
Holloway’s length, experience and aggressive combination striking have been what’s differentiated him from all but champion Volkanovski and it’s what’s differentiating him in this fight from Jung.
At thirty-one Holloway is out to prove that he has plenty of career remaining in him. He’s is a fighter from the American islands who will draw anywhere he fights.
The passionate fight fans in attendance will all be wanting to see their man, ‘the Zombie’ try to do to Holloway what only Volkanovski’s been able to do to him as a featherweight which seems a tall order from this perspective.
Holloway opened -950 for this fight and the total is set at 2.5Rds Over -225.
Points: Holloway -5.5 -350
Chidi Njokuani -120 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuc +100 Middleweight (185lbs.)
I’m glad I am writing this and not pronouncing it!
In this fight we have the American Njokuani who is a hulking 6’3”, ill-intentioned power striker. Not only will he be the larger man in the cage Saturday he’ll also hold a 6” reach advantage in what appears to be a classic stand up fight.
Michael O is a ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’ fighter because he’s a somewhat of squirrely looking fellow but the experienced Polish striker competed in his early career at light heavyweight where he displayed focus, will and the ability to absorb heavy strikes.
At 205lbs, Michael O was very undersized but he fought like a wolverine cornered while competing against those larger fighters. Mikeal O has immense power in his hands, he’s willing to set up in the pocket and exchange Sunday shots, and he sports a granite beard.
Once the bell for round one rings Michael O will need to hunt cautiously early and be aware that his best chance to win is to get Chidi into the second round. Njokuani’s power is profuse, his pressure is constant and he knows no caution so challenging him early in a firefight is unwise.
Positive news for Michael O is that he’s already faced threats that hulked over him so this middleweight monster is no larger than the light heavies Michael O has been in with already.
Njokuani’s size and ferocity of fight will be nothing new to Michael O in fact I believe it motivates him to bring his best performance and that’s exactly what I believe he offers us Saturday.
Weather that early firestorm Michael!
Michael Oleksiejczuk +100
Total in this fight: 2.5 Under -245 (opened -215) so the wise guys feel like someone may be going to sleep here.
Points:
This week GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday morning because of the early Saturday AM start time of the bouts.
‘Bout Business also holds Blanchfield +114 as leg 2 incoming parlay!
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.
GambLou
Profitable Sports Gaming
Accounting for every wager, their result and conducting detailed accounting is foundational if one is going to compete with bookmakers for profitability.
For decades I have published results each Monday in my ‘Money Morning’ column.
To date few, very few handicappers record their results let alone publish them which should make any onlooker wary as to whether said handicapper is selling ‘picks’ for their own self-interest as most do or if they are trying to emulate my model which is based solely on modern business practices.
Specifically, all I have done for the last decade plus is deliver profitability to followers. In the future, that’s what I’ll continue to do!
Let’s account:
Favorites in the UFC including last week’s 9-2 favorite result stand: 203-101-14 or 63.8%
Last week in the UFC I realized a 3-3 +1.06u result.
To date in 2023 ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 69-69 +20.64u 15% ROI (+130)
Last week in the UFC Favorites ran 9-4 putting them at 194-99-14 this year or 63%.
GambLou ‘Bout Business results after a modest return last week of just under one unit stands:
66-66 +17.48u 13% ROI (+127)
This week UFC 292 comes live from Boston, MA Saturday 3:30pm PST. I’ll have complete breakdowns up Friday morning on the ‘Bout Business Podcast!
Tune up the Tune in!
UFC receipts for the weekend amount to a 3-2 result for a return of +2.59 units.
Yearly UFC profits are +16.63 units for a 13%ROI and an average win of +122.
We’re rapidly approaching the NFL season, to date I have released one season win total and there will be more coming as we approach the beginning of the regular season.
Serious NFL investors are urged to check my ‘NFL consulting’ page to determine if my NFL service may be a fit as a supplement for your own profitable approach to the NFL season.
I have some really cool news surfacing soon. Stay tuned right here for a strong independent voice to Profitable Sports Gaming!