Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Mexico Moreno vs. Royval: Toe 2 Toe in Mexico!

This week the UFC travels to Mexico City, Mexico for its Fight Night production where the main event features a rematch of Flyweight athletes Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval.

This card offers thirteen bouts eleven of which feature Mexican fighters who find themselves in favorable matchups. There are no athletes on this fight card weighing more than lightweight 155lbs. and all but one matchup is lined at 2.5 total rounds.

Mexico City with its altitude, the larger 30’ octagon and smaller statured athletes may make for a plethora of decisions?

Last week Rober Whittaker shrugged off a vicious head kick late in round one to earn a decision win over Paolo Costa in the co main event. Whittaker’s win pushed my results this year to 2-3 + .85u

Let’s enhance that bottom line with this week’s release.

Brandon Moreno -250 vs. Brandon Royval +200 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Royval, who trains at elevation in Colorado arrives at this main event fresh off a five round unanimous decision loss to current champion Alexandre Pantoja last December.

Royval, a southpaw will have height and reach advantages over Moreno, the former champion of the division. Royval’s been able to conquer all the division’s contenders save for the two elite talents in current champion Pantoja and Moreno who just lost his title to Pantoja a few months ago.

To break through and earn a third crack at Pantoja will not be an easy task understanding that the Mexican fight crowd, a voracious one at that will be whole heartedly supporting Moreno, Mexico’s first ever UFC champion.

Royval’s strengths are his unusual lengthy frame, his ability to move in unorthodox, unpredictable fashion and his determination to finally break through and defeat one of the two most dominant flyweights in the division’s history.

It was in November of 2020 when these two first tussled and Royval, a black belt in BJJ had to take a difficult loss because he injured his shoulder and was unable to continue. Royval has improved drastically since their first bout, and he has worked diligently to earn this opportunity realizing a 3-2 record since that defeat with both losses coming at the hands of Pantoja.

In Moreno we have the former champion and the pride of Mexico. Moreno is also a black belt in BJJ but he is also a deft boxer with the standard Mexican granite chin.

Moreno’s coming off a dynamically close split decision loss to Pantoja this past July and it seems clear that the victor here will get another crack at the current champion.

While Moreno’s giving up height and length to Royval, he owns a wealth of championship, five round main event experience. He’s also a year younger than his foe and he’ll have hordes of feverous fans fueling his fury.

Where Royval is unpredictable and flamboyant with his strikes, flying knees and kicks, Moreno is systematic in his approach to working the body then taking the head. This will be a terrific clash of styles.

Both men are competent on the feet, but it is Moreno who possesses the more complete wrestling/grappling attack and I do believe we will see him exercise that ability in this bout. Crowding the longer, taller Royval together with forcing him backwards and into defending takedowns will go a long way in usurping the energy from the Coloradan.

If there is a chink in the Moreno armor, it may be that he has been in numerous wars since these two last fought. Royval’s overall improvement coupled with his ability to compete at elevation will be telling in his chances to get his hand raised in this bout.

In a fight that I believe goes to decision, this week’s release:

Fight starts round 4 -175

Round props selection at DraftKings

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -140

Manuel Torres -185 vs. Chris Duncan +155 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This is the only bout on this slate lined at 1.5Rds with the under is priced -200. From the total we may imply that this fight is going to be a banger and from my handicap that inference would be completely correct.

In this one, Duncan 11-1 ships in from Scotland although he has been training in Florida’s ATT for weeks, a gym where there are at least five top fifteen ranked lightweights in the world for him to take rounds against.

Duncan is tough, durable and possesses wrestling acumen though he prefers to situate himself in the center of the cage, stand wide and zing hooks, crosses, and kicks at opponents with the singular goal of cracking them unconscious.

Duncan’s defensive abilities are my biggest issue with his fighting as takes 3.8 significant strikes per minute which is something extremely dangerous against this opponent.

Torres, 14-2 is the local, he conditioned to training at Mexico City’s extreme elevation and while he is more than willing to trade hooks, his strikes tend to be straighter, then supplemented with damaging elbows and knees right up the middle.

Torres has not seen the second round of a mixed martial arts fight since 2018 as he is a pure cold-hearted finisher yet his ability to compete in a long, tough, grueling battle is a justifiable concern.

Once the fight begins, it is my judgement that it is in Duncan’s best interest to wrestle the Mexican up in this fight to sap him of his energy then take advantage of him in the later rounds.

For Torres, he will attack Duncan from the opening bell, but he MUST control his distance and make certain in his zeal to destroy that he does not rush into a Duncan takedown for Torres has little to no ability to wrestle in any capacity.

In a fight where I expect both athletes to ‘put it on’ their opponent it is the durability and perseverance of Duncan that forces me to believe that this total offers value to the over.

Torres opened -155 in this bout, he dipped to -120 when I released him on my Monday ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast and now his price has now escalated to the current -175.

My handicap of this bout is that it goes over 1.5 Rds. while my conservative nature says to use the prop, “Fight starts round 2”, however that prop has not been put up on the DraftKings menu yet, so I will hold off as my deadline calls.

Lean Over 1.5 but will wager “Fight starts round 2”. I expect that price to have a plus sign next to it once released….

My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops midday Friday and is accessible at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 298 Volkanovski vs. Topuria” Terminally Ilya?

Interested in accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast? Hit the BOUT BUSINESS tab at the top of this webpage for specifics!

This week UFC 298 takes place from Los Angeles with an internationally populated fight slate featuring athletes from China to Equator, Australia to Wales, Brazil to Jamaica and all points in between.

Four fights offer us a look at debuting athletes while eight bouts highlight veteran competitors facing off in high stakes bouts with each combatant looking to enhance their career trajectories.

Last week Rodolfo Viera submitted Armen Petrosyan in the first round of their fight. Petrosyan, needed to survive the first round against a fresh, strong Brazilian counterpart in order to have the fight begin to turn his way yet that was not to be.

I stand 1-3 -.15 heading into this week.

Let’s dig right into UFC 298 which kicks off Saturday at 3pm PT with early prelims followed by the main card which starts at 7pm PT and features a handful of highly competitive and potentially explosive bouts.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Ilya Topuria +105 Featherweight (145lbs.) Championship

Undefeated and third ranked Topuria, of Georgian descent fights out of Spain where he was raised. He possesses a strong Greco Roman wrestling base to go with his black belt in BJJ. Topuria’s striking is serviceable enough to allow him to compete standing until which time he can clasp onto opponents in order to press them against the cage then force then onto the mat. From there his single point of focus is to choke them unconscious or force then to tap from an array of submission attempts which come as second nature to him.

Topuria, 14-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC will be two inches taller than the champion and eight years the younger athlete in this title fight. He sports a +1.39 strike per minute ratio and lands 2.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. He realizes 1.5 submission attempts per fifteen minutes of fight time.

These numbers, while sound must be deciphered by comprehending the level of competition Topuria has faced.

Topuria is young, he’s overly cocky and has talked his way into this championship fight after defeating only two pedigreed, legitimate UFC featherweights. Many deem Topuria ready for this challenge and he must be respected in this bout as he is aggressive, unrelenting with his forward pressure, and arrives to this fight with momentum.

That stated, he has been yammering into any microphone available announcing to anyone listening that it’s his ‘destiny’ to defeat current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria’s bravado and approach to this substantial step up in class seems quite a risky one to say the least and Volkanovski, a silent assassin has taken note.

In Alexander Volkanovski we have arguably the greatest featherweight to ever step into the cage which is a strong statement considering that list includes Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.

Volkanovski’s 26-3 professional record and his 13-2 result in the UFC does not come close to telling the complete story as both of his UFC losses have come at the hands of current UFC Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has dominated a division ten pound heavier than featherweight. Volkanovski’s only other defeat came years ago in his fourth professional bout in the welterweight division.

Most, if not all combat sport pundits regard Makhachev as the current pound for pound athlete in the organization so those recent losses come with absolutely no shame rather total respect.

At the featherweight level, Volkanovski has dominated all challengers. He owns decision victories over the aforementioned Jose Aldo as well he’s defeated former champion Max Holloway thrice in closely contested five round battles resulting in decisions.

Volkanovski’s +2.77 strikes landed per minute is impressive but even more so when one considers who he has competed against in the cage.

Volkanovski will be giving away two inches of height and eight years of age to Topuria but his recent domination of Yair Rodriguez clearly displays his ability to dominate any and all forms of challenge from athletes competing at featherweight.

The intrigue in this fight comes by understanding that four months ago Volkanovski took his second bout against the aforementioned lightweight champion Makhachev on teen days’ notice! He was defeated by knockout via head kick in the first round.

After that fight and leading up to this bout, Volkanovski, gave a highly emotional interview where he stated how much he needs to be in training. His demeanor and body language during this interview was disturbing to me. It also came out some time later that he was enjoying the spoils of the layman’s life as he had no fight scheduled leading up to his ten-day notice to fight Makhachev.

Volkanovski opened -175 for this fight and he has been bet down to the current price of just above pick-em.

Usually, I’d be dashing for the betting counter looking to invest in Volkanovski -120. However, his highly emotional interview in early January after the Makhachev bout coupled with the fact that he’s taking on another very dangerous challenger four months removed from being knocked unconscious forces me to hesitate.

This will be Volkanovski’s fourth highly competitive fight in the last calendar year and remember two of those were against an elite champion at a weight class ten pounds higher than his.

Has he allowed his body/brain to fully recoup for this battle at thirty-five years of age? Could he be taking this bout too soon after that KO?

These questions force me to pass on this fight despite the perception that there seems to be an abundance of value on the current champion.

Months ago, I released Topuria +135 on the ‘Bout Business Podcast but that was before he began all the needless yapping. If it were today, I would consider Volkanovski at current pricing or I’d pass all together on a side in this fight.

Total in this fight: 3.5 -125 Over

Robert Whittaker -240 vs. Paolo Costa +210 Middleweight (185lbs.)

New Zealand’s Whittaker is a former champion who has faced the elite of the middleweight division. Since 2014, the divisions third ranked athlete has only lost to current champion Dricus du Plessis and former champion Israel Adesanya.

Whittaker is strong, moves deftly and has power in all appendages. He’s highly decorated with Black belts in hapkido, Gōjū-ryū karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu making him one truly dangerous fighting machine.

He’s looking to bounce after what he, myself and many in the MMA arena regard as a most dismal uncharacteristic performance in that loss to du Plessis.

At thirty-three Whittaker believes he has much more to prove and he can go a long way in displaying that against his sixth ranked Brazilian counterpart Paolo Costa Saturday night.

Costa 14-2 professionally is a man with a chiseled physique and movie star looks. He’s decorated with a black belt in BJJ and does possess power in his kicks and strikes. Costa, 6-2 in the UFC has been inactive since August of 2022 when he scored an uneventful decision over Luke Rockhold a washed athlete with a balsa wood beak who had come out of retirement to take the fight.

At his best Costa has profuse striking power but he is a front runner whose confidence and swagger grows when competing against lesser pedigreed athletes but who’s momentum wanes when placed against world class fighters with elite MMA acumen who can withstand his early barrage then turn the tables and back him up.

The prescription for defeating Costa is simple, just bully the bully.

How well Costa has used his time away from the cage will be apparent early in this fight. It’s my judgement that while desperate for a win, the inactivity and relative low fight IQ he’s displayed throughout his career will be difficult traits for him to overcome understanding the elite athlete he’s going to be in the cage with Saturday.

Whittaker’s been in LA for a couple of weeks now and he’s focused and determined to end this fight violently and make another run for the division’s championship which is certainly withing his ability to accomplish.

Whittaker -250

Total in this fight: Opened 1.5 Rds. -240 to the over but is now lined 2.5Rds -150 Over.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast contains my official releases for this fight card. It will be available Friday just after noon PT and is only available at GambLou.com

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

Gembloux

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, NFL, Profitability, UFC

GambLou 2023 Profitability report; NFL Championship opening lines

This week the AFC and NFC Championships will be contested. As we close down the end of the NFL year let’s take a look at opening lines for these games and review GambLou.com profitability.

At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas: Baltimore opened -3.5ev with a total of 45.5 while in San Francisco, the 49ers came -7 and 52.

These prices may not move too much for numerous reasons this week however I will be tracking the line movement for any opportunities.

GambLou.com 2023 NFL Clients stand 61 and 61, +2.94units representing a 2%ROI

Future wagers released at the beginning of the season that have NOT been recorded yet:

Chiefs Under 11.5 season wins +120; 1.5unit W

Chiefs Under 10.5 season wins +220; .5unit L

Washington Over 6.5 wins +100 1unit L

Houston to win AFC South +220 .35unit W

Houston to win AFC 20/1 .15unit L

Baltimore to win AFC +375 .5unit pending

I’ll invest into the Championship round then into the Super Bowl.

Beating the NFL is no easy task but with the Ravens position pending and a strong Championship performance I look to enhance profitability for myself and all clients.

——————————————–

As January ends my focus becomes exclusively UFC profitability while NHL Stanley Cup Due Diligence is in full swing.

Last year NHL profitability: 55-46 +25.20units for a 29% ROI

After two UFC events in 2024 GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast Members are 3-5 +.23units for 4%ROI with 3 favorites in upcoming cards earning members Plus money (Yes, that’s correct) and two releases holding positive value based on the pricing today. I’m playing a different game than the hordes making ‘picks’ and selling their swag.

At GambLou.com Investing on select sporting events is strictly Business!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Membership UPDATE

‘Bout Business Memberships

Thank you all for such a flattering response to ‘Bout Business participation.

As a note: Please understand that memberships are still available and that any considering the year-long ‘Tap-Out’ Membership will absolutely receive a full year of subscription from the date one signed up.

So, if you jump in March 1st your membership will run until Feb. 28th

Questions?

Lou@GambLou.com

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV84 Magomedov vs. Walker: Johnnie was

For info on the ‘Bout Business Podcast please tap the “‘Bout Business podcast” tab at the top of tis webpage

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Insight the Octagon returns for a seventh year of profitable UFC releases on the most powerful betting platform available; the VSIN digital magazine.

After almost a month off, mixed martial artistry returns featuring athletes from across the world who bring specialized fight weaponry into each matchup. This week from the UFC APEX, LV84 offers a fight slate featuring twelve compelling bouts with athlete’s whose skills and body types range from one end of the fight spectrum to the opposite.

My responsibility is to break down each bout and offer my ‘best bet’ here on these pages for each of the 44/46 weeks in 2024 that the UFC will offer fight enthusiasts it’s productions.

Let’s dig right into this event which commences Saturday at 1pm PT with preliminary action then segway’s to main card competition at 4pm PT.

Magomed Ankalaev -450 vs. Johnnie Walker +375 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Last October these two tangled into the first round when Walker was illegally kneed and poked in the eye when chaos ensued. The bout was called a ‘no contest’ based on a combination of incompetent refereeing and a language barrier between Walker and said ref.

Flash forward to Saturday and these two will be again be presented the opportunity to vie against each other. I must mention that hatred between Brazilian fight athletes and Russian’s is stringent on a day-to-day basis but in this case these two can’t wait to try to inflict maximum damage upon one another.

Seventh ranked Walker, a Brazilian striker now training in Ireland holds impressive size and length advantages over most athletes in the division and in this fight that holds true.

Walker, a brown belt in BJJ rarely employs his grappling preferring instead to utilize his massive size/length and flamboyant freewheeling striking to try to incapacitate opponents with driving knees, spinning kicks, impaling elbows, and fists.

Walker employs an aggressive approach on opponents as his single goal is to crack then unconscious, pick up a bonus check and return to his training.

Walker’s forceful offense is supplemented by a relative lack of take down ability as well he has a chin more fragile than ancient porcelain.

Third ranked Russian Ankalaev enters a winner of nine straight UFC bouts before realizing a questionable draw (which I believe he won) against Jan Blachowicz in a title fight, then NC came against Walker last fall.

Ankalaev has little personality, panache’ or flamboyance but he holds International Master of Sport degrees in both Samba and MMA. These titles are not handed out easily in the realm of Russian MMA as an aside.

Ankalaev’s personality is as reflective of his approach to fighting as is Walker’s. Walker the aggressive matrix like striker pitted against Ankalaev a systematic, patient grappling machine.

Ankalaev employs a solid striking base in order to enter the pocket against opponents then his aim is to immediately drag foes to the mat for a complete mauling. His strength is immeasurable and is complimented by his cardio which allows him to overwhelm opponents with unrelenting forward grappling pressure.

There exists an abundance of angst between these two and Saturday Walker is going to try to kick Ankalaev’s head into the upper deck while Ankalaev will try to use this five-round bout to first exhaust the monstrous striker then take him down to the floor and choke him out of consciousness.

I believe Ankalaev dominates this bout after the first round or so but will study props in order to find more opportunity than his current straight up price.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -166

Manuel Kape -270 vs. Matheus Nicolau +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

This is a rematch of a bout Nicolau won via split decision in 2021 when he was a full-grown man facing Kape who was then just a shadow of the fighter he is today.

Nicolau rattled off four fine wins before running into an elbow and being KO’d by Brandon Royval in his last bout. Nicolau, a Black belt in BBJ with decent striking enters this fight on the bounce and looking to reestablish himself as the next challenger to the title.

Kape, of Angolan and Portuguese descent is lighting fast and supremely athletic. He’s primarily a Muay Thai striking based fighter who forces opponents backwards then blisters them with his hand speed and leg movement which allow him to attack from every angle.

Kape’s greatest asset may be his power which is unusual for a fighter so fleet afoot and so athletic.

Once this bout begins it will be Nicolau that must navigate his way inside on the athletic striker in order to both negate his movement and striking distance while smothering him. Fighting Kape forehead to Kape’s chest is the prescription for Nicolau to be successful in this bout for his BJJ stands superior to Kapes.

Kape, meanwhile will use his legs and athleticism to maintain distance and attempt to obliterate Nicolau as he attempts to gain the clinch.

I believe this is a tough assignment for Nicolau and with this co main event being a five round bout I look for Kape to have more time to find Nicolau upon entry.

Kape to win via KO/Sub/DQ +140

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -145

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday just after Noon PT. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington: A Royval pain

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is now accepting memberships for 2024. Hit the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for details. 

This week’s PPV fight card, UFC 296 is a stacked event that will complete 2023 for the organization. The slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts featuring athletes from around the globe who bring their individualized fight weaponry into Las Vegas to win a fight, earn some cheese and close the year on a winning note.

All UFC athletes aspire to compete in PPV events because of the immense exposure they deliver. Once on a PPV card the next ascent is to find oneself on the main card of any PPV event. Once there, a fighter’s earnings are magnified intensifying the importance of the opportunity.

Profitability into this last event of the year stands 21-19 +2.8u.

Let’s Fight

Leon Edwards -160 vs. Colby Covington +135 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Englishman Edwards wrested the Welterweight title in magnificent fashion when he head-kick KO’d then champion Kamaru Usman in August 2022. His title defense against Usman this past March was less spectacular though the title remained with Edwards.

Edwards has a very balanced mixed martial arts arsenal; he’s been in with the elite of the division winning eleven straight since 2016. This is his second defense of the title and Edwards arrives to the fight quietly confident he will retain his title

Colby Covington arrives as the brash antagonist which is his ‘schtick’ and he plays it very well. An elite D1 college wrestler Covington has dominated the division save for Usman though he’s not had the opportunity to tangle with Edwards yet.

In the cage, Covington’s intense, forward pressing pressure wrestling and his unlimited cardio are the foundations of his unrelenting attacks.

Outside the cage, he hurls endless tasteless insults at opponents with a shit talking, fowl mouthed, in your face delivery. This tactic repulses most anyone who is within earshot as well as the target those insults are directed towards.

This Covington tactic makes him one of the more abrasive yet elite mentalists in the game and he’s been trying to needle Leon since this bout was announced.

Southpaw Edwards advantages are found in his height, reach, youth and calm demeanor. Edwards should be somewhat prepared for the pressure of Covington after a couple bouts against Usman though Covington’s pressure is more unrelenting as he’s willing to wrestle from bell to bell while Usman’s legs had long since expired by the time he tussled with Edwards.

Covington will drive to press forward and clinch Edwards against the fence, take him down then wrestle him up which will be the key to this fight for him.

Challenges for Covington are that he’s now thirty-five and has not battled in the cage for over a year. Does that negatively affect him or will he arrive firing fresh as a daisy? I believe the later honestly.

He’ll work to systematically wear Edwards out by wrapping him up early and dragging him to the floor for a rock n roll session but can he execute a wrestling heavy game plan against a man with substantial wrestling chops himself?

Covington’s going to be giving up substantial size Saturday and he’ll be at a disadvantage on the feet so he will focus on clasping, clinching and grappling.  Edwards meanwhile will be efforting to maintain space and control distance in order to clobber Colby coming in.

Covington is a special breed of cardio maniac and while I have great respect for Edwards as a mixed martial artist, I must consider that the exultation and notoriety in recent months coupled with the fact that he’s not seen this form of pressure in prior bouts may tilt this fight to Covington.

It’s well easier to get to the mountain top than remain there.

Eventually, when this bout hits the championship rounds and I believe it does conditioning will be the story of this fight.

Will Edwards succumb to the old adage that ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all’? Or will Edwards have the legs, movement and ability to maintain distance and crack Colby as he attempts to gain inside position?

This is going to be an excellent test for both athletes but it’s in the championship rounds where I handicap Covington’s mettle may separate these two.

Covington +135 1u

Total in this fight 4.5Rds. Over

Alexandre Pantoja -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160 Flyweight (125lbs.) Title

Rematch.

In August 2021 Pantoja submitted Royval when Pantoja was focused solely on gaining his title shot while Royval was a talented but yet developing future flyweight talent.

Pantoja choked Royval out in the second round of that bout and now defends his title for the first time in a rematch against a kid in Royval that since their first bout has greatly evolved physically, mentally and emotionally.

Royval’s two years younger, he’s four inches taller and the lefty holds a reach advantage of seven inches. Together these physical advantages may contribute to dominance provided Royval can utilize movement and distance in order to ensure the fight remains at distance and standing.

In the first bout, Royval’s wild approach and lack of experience manifested itself into an uneven performance both mentally and physically as Pantoja was simply the more refined, aggressive, complete mixed martial artist in the cage that night.

In this battle, I believe Royval must take a planned but aggressive approach to the new champion and introduce himself early as the bigger, stronger more determined athlete. This will be no easy task against a warrior with the fight arsenal and pride of Pantoja.

Royval’s size, length, youth and focus must together be utilized to force Pantoja into realizing this is a different fighter and a different night than when these two first fought and possibly a different outcome.

Pantoja’s story is a powerful one that encompasses plenty of past pain and professional obstacles but he’s overcome all of that to become champion of the world.

Since becoming champion however, the exultation, recognition and notoriety that comes with being champion coupled with the wealth for his family may not have had time to do their corrosive work yet …but I MUST wonder if and how Pantoja will be able to match the intensity of performance he displayed in his last bout against Moreno.

Royval matches up well against Pantoja.

Royval +160 

Patience with this release…the world is playing Pantoja… take Royval at +160 or higher!

Gamblou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop Friday early PM PT. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 295 Prochazka vs. Pereira: Gut Czech

Five UFC fight cards remain in 2023 starting with this week’s UFC 295 from New York City. As is often the case in the volatile UFC, some of the athletes have been replaced but competitive viable betting opportunities surely remain.

Last week amid a slew of fight cancellations my release of the Danish Viking Nicolas Dalby to provide a stern test for the talented Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim did result in a successful win bet on the Over. However, I wish I’d given Dalby more consideration straight up as he knocked Bonfim out in the second round as a +380/+400 underdog.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023: 95-87  +32.19u  18% ROI  (125)

Jiri Prochazka +110 vs. Alex Pereira +130 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

This title fight features Prochazka, the former title holder prior to his devastating shoulder injury, competing against Pereira for the title which is currently vacated after most recent champion Jamahal Hill suffered injury a few months ago.

Pereira is ranked third in the division after but one bout against elite talent Jan Blachowicz. He has much to gain with a win here and plenty to prove namely that his power and striking effectiveness can carry into this heavier, larger light heavyweight division.

Working in Pereira’s favor are his rapid evolution into MMA, his mentor former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira a former foe of Prochazka, and his zeal to earn UFC belts in two different divisions.

For the Brazilian Pereira decorated with a black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in BJJ, there is much to gain from a victory here.

In Prochazka we must rely on the fact that his shoulder which was damn near torn off like a cooked chicken wing has fully recovered and that he is not only cleared to compete but is 110% prepared for war physically and mentally.

Both of these men sport shallow UFC history therefore the significant striking data is somewhat skewed. Each athlete delivers effective powerful damaging shots at high rates. Pereira lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and allows 3.70 so he is accruing damage while mindful of defense.

Prochazka delivers his strikes with similar frequency but with well more power but his defense is less sound. Jiri lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute but he absorbs 5.40 per minute which makes for a fighter ‘willing to eat one to give one’.

It’s my position that Pereira is the more diligent, refined, precise striker while Jiri is the more telegraphing but devastating one.

Each man maims opponents with bludgeoning leg kicks in conjunction with those long damaging strikes but with Jiri the power and devastating effects are clear as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents.

Pereira has not displayed the finishing traits or ferocity in the cage we have seen from Jiri especially in his sole light heavyweight tussle against Blachowicz.

Makers have made the total in this bout 1.5Rds Over -130

I can’t envision something that looks like an early finish in this fight.

Pat Sabatini -135 vs. Diego Lopes +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Sabatini, from Philadelphia area brings a well-rounded fight arsenal to his bouts. Solid wrestling complimented by black belts in BJJ and a Korean Karate fight form called ‘Tang Soo Do’ are Sabatini’s credentials. When he has it going well Sabatini employs aggressive forward pressure to clasp, clinch and control opponents. He’s dominant in the clinch, against the fence or on the floor with opponents for on the feet he is unsure of himself offensively and somewhat ineffective defensively.

Lopes hits the ‘Big Apple’ with revenge on his mind for his UFC debut was in New Jersey against Movsar Evloev this past May. In that bout Lopes looked like anything but a debuting athlete. He gave eighth ranked Evloev all he could handle in that decision loss and it was that night that I recognized future opportunity on this young Brazilian gamer.

In this fight Lopes will be the younger man by three years, he’s two inches taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage arms and legs.

As importantly Lopes BJJ grappling is on par to Sabatini’s BJJ wrestling though I credit Lopes with far more fluidity and natural striking ability as well his ability to take a shot to the schnoz is a strength.

Achilles heel to Sabatini unfortunately is his balsa wood beak for if flushed on the face Sabatini can fold up as we witnessed against a long, tall, gangly Damon Jackson.

Once this bout begins, I look for Lopes to be fresher, faster, stronger and able to keep this fight standing and at distance. From there his striking will have maximum effect on Sabatini as he tries to work his way inside to engage.

Lopes +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -180

Benoit St. Denis -230 vs. Matt Frevola +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

I’m warning everyone now that this fight is pure violence.

Matt ‘the Steamrolla’ Frevola, a lieutenant in the US Army reserve fights out of Long Island with the Longo Weidman team. He holds a brown belt in BJJ but his game really revolves around striking …with power. Frevola’s ideal scenario is to engage anyone, anywhere in a closed quarter, flat footed throwdown.

Frevola’s power is fight ending as witnessed by the cocky Drew Dober who was iced by Frevola in his last outing. However, in this fight Frevola steps up in class against an athlete that I believe is on his way straight to the top five of the lightweight division.

In St. Denis we have an ex-military green beret in the French Army. He’s taller, longer and younger than is the local New Yorker as well he is gifted with a more complete fight arsenal. St. Denis thrives in the firestorm of fury and is able to dominate anywhere the fight takes place.

His foe Frevola needs fights to remain on the feet to have his best chance to win while St. Denis can shake, rattle or roll from anywhere in the cage.

Frevola will take this fight directly to St. Denis. St. Denis will walk down Frevola with urgency and ill intent. The result will be some outstanding watching!

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -150

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PT. Look for it across all platforms.

Enjoy the bouts and Thank you for reading.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

The ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast introduction

Today the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast, a comprehensive review of the opening lines for each week’s UFC card drops for its inaugural session. Get it on my front page or anywhere you get your podcasts!

The 10-12 minute podcast will focus on each week’s UFC opening fight lines, where they have moved and where they may move. It’s a terrific supplement/precursor to the ’Bout Business Podcast as it highlights early thoughts and delivers potential advantageous wagers.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

Speaking of the ‘Bout Business Podcast, on January 1st 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.

The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.

I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:

  • Everything I do here is business. First proceeds from any podcast income will go to paying off the cost of the new GambLou.com webpage.
  • Green Roll Media is my podcast partner and for two years they have worked with me to initiate our momentum. In 2024, proceeds from podcast memberships (in conjunction with webpage fulfillment) will be paid to Green Roll. They have produced a brilliant podcast for our profitability and it’s time they too receive compensation for their investment into ‘Bout Business Podcast success.

MOST IMPORTANT

  • Investors who sign up for the podcast’s yearly membership (the Tap out, $199.99) will be provided regular updates on the flow of monetary contributions to the Mission.

For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.

So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.

As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.

The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.

Request

My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.

For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.

Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com

Thank you for any consideration

Louis Finocchiaro

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Deposits; Sneak-Teep Podcast

The Sneak-Teep Podcast debuts next Tuesday!

On it, I’ll review opening lines for each week’s UFC event. Line openers, line movement and insight regarding any such movement will be covered in a brief preview on a fight by fight basis.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023 results to date: 91-87 +28.33u 16% ROI (+127)*

*Note: With the JBJ cancellation each of the 2 parlay legs that we had now convert to a 1 team parlay. For Marcos -135 we earn .75u and with Tafa as -200 we earn .50 so there are 2 wins and 1.25u of profit added because of that cancellation.

Beginning January 1 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available ONLY on the GambLou.com webpage. Membership opportunities are available to all. Please go to the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for specifics about my goal of creating a contribution stream to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucsom, AZ.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming