Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington: A Royval pain

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is now accepting memberships for 2024. Hit the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for details. 

This week’s PPV fight card, UFC 296 is a stacked event that will complete 2023 for the organization. The slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts featuring athletes from around the globe who bring their individualized fight weaponry into Las Vegas to win a fight, earn some cheese and close the year on a winning note.

All UFC athletes aspire to compete in PPV events because of the immense exposure they deliver. Once on a PPV card the next ascent is to find oneself on the main card of any PPV event. Once there, a fighter’s earnings are magnified intensifying the importance of the opportunity.

Profitability into this last event of the year stands 21-19 +2.8u.

Let’s Fight

Leon Edwards -160 vs. Colby Covington +135 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Englishman Edwards wrested the Welterweight title in magnificent fashion when he head-kick KO’d then champion Kamaru Usman in August 2022. His title defense against Usman this past March was less spectacular though the title remained with Edwards.

Edwards has a very balanced mixed martial arts arsenal; he’s been in with the elite of the division winning eleven straight since 2016. This is his second defense of the title and Edwards arrives to the fight quietly confident he will retain his title

Colby Covington arrives as the brash antagonist which is his ‘schtick’ and he plays it very well. An elite D1 college wrestler Covington has dominated the division save for Usman though he’s not had the opportunity to tangle with Edwards yet.

In the cage, Covington’s intense, forward pressing pressure wrestling and his unlimited cardio are the foundations of his unrelenting attacks.

Outside the cage, he hurls endless tasteless insults at opponents with a shit talking, fowl mouthed, in your face delivery. This tactic repulses most anyone who is within earshot as well as the target those insults are directed towards.

This Covington tactic makes him one of the more abrasive yet elite mentalists in the game and he’s been trying to needle Leon since this bout was announced.

Southpaw Edwards advantages are found in his height, reach, youth and calm demeanor. Edwards should be somewhat prepared for the pressure of Covington after a couple bouts against Usman though Covington’s pressure is more unrelenting as he’s willing to wrestle from bell to bell while Usman’s legs had long since expired by the time he tussled with Edwards.

Covington will drive to press forward and clinch Edwards against the fence, take him down then wrestle him up which will be the key to this fight for him.

Challenges for Covington are that he’s now thirty-five and has not battled in the cage for over a year. Does that negatively affect him or will he arrive firing fresh as a daisy? I believe the later honestly.

He’ll work to systematically wear Edwards out by wrapping him up early and dragging him to the floor for a rock n roll session but can he execute a wrestling heavy game plan against a man with substantial wrestling chops himself?

Covington’s going to be giving up substantial size Saturday and he’ll be at a disadvantage on the feet so he will focus on clasping, clinching and grappling.  Edwards meanwhile will be efforting to maintain space and control distance in order to clobber Colby coming in.

Covington is a special breed of cardio maniac and while I have great respect for Edwards as a mixed martial artist, I must consider that the exultation and notoriety in recent months coupled with the fact that he’s not seen this form of pressure in prior bouts may tilt this fight to Covington.

It’s well easier to get to the mountain top than remain there.

Eventually, when this bout hits the championship rounds and I believe it does conditioning will be the story of this fight.

Will Edwards succumb to the old adage that ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all’? Or will Edwards have the legs, movement and ability to maintain distance and crack Colby as he attempts to gain inside position?

This is going to be an excellent test for both athletes but it’s in the championship rounds where I handicap Covington’s mettle may separate these two.

Covington +135 1u

Total in this fight 4.5Rds. Over

Alexandre Pantoja -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160 Flyweight (125lbs.) Title

Rematch.

In August 2021 Pantoja submitted Royval when Pantoja was focused solely on gaining his title shot while Royval was a talented but yet developing future flyweight talent.

Pantoja choked Royval out in the second round of that bout and now defends his title for the first time in a rematch against a kid in Royval that since their first bout has greatly evolved physically, mentally and emotionally.

Royval’s two years younger, he’s four inches taller and the lefty holds a reach advantage of seven inches. Together these physical advantages may contribute to dominance provided Royval can utilize movement and distance in order to ensure the fight remains at distance and standing.

In the first bout, Royval’s wild approach and lack of experience manifested itself into an uneven performance both mentally and physically as Pantoja was simply the more refined, aggressive, complete mixed martial artist in the cage that night.

In this battle, I believe Royval must take a planned but aggressive approach to the new champion and introduce himself early as the bigger, stronger more determined athlete. This will be no easy task against a warrior with the fight arsenal and pride of Pantoja.

Royval’s size, length, youth and focus must together be utilized to force Pantoja into realizing this is a different fighter and a different night than when these two first fought and possibly a different outcome.

Pantoja’s story is a powerful one that encompasses plenty of past pain and professional obstacles but he’s overcome all of that to become champion of the world.

Since becoming champion however, the exultation, recognition and notoriety that comes with being champion coupled with the wealth for his family may not have had time to do their corrosive work yet …but I MUST wonder if and how Pantoja will be able to match the intensity of performance he displayed in his last bout against Moreno.

Royval matches up well against Pantoja.

Royval +160 

Patience with this release…the world is playing Pantoja… take Royval at +160 or higher!

Gamblou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop Friday early PM PT. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 295 Prochazka vs. Pereira: Gut Czech

Five UFC fight cards remain in 2023 starting with this week’s UFC 295 from New York City. As is often the case in the volatile UFC, some of the athletes have been replaced but competitive viable betting opportunities surely remain.

Last week amid a slew of fight cancellations my release of the Danish Viking Nicolas Dalby to provide a stern test for the talented Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim did result in a successful win bet on the Over. However, I wish I’d given Dalby more consideration straight up as he knocked Bonfim out in the second round as a +380/+400 underdog.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023: 95-87  +32.19u  18% ROI  (125)

Jiri Prochazka +110 vs. Alex Pereira +130 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

This title fight features Prochazka, the former title holder prior to his devastating shoulder injury, competing against Pereira for the title which is currently vacated after most recent champion Jamahal Hill suffered injury a few months ago.

Pereira is ranked third in the division after but one bout against elite talent Jan Blachowicz. He has much to gain with a win here and plenty to prove namely that his power and striking effectiveness can carry into this heavier, larger light heavyweight division.

Working in Pereira’s favor are his rapid evolution into MMA, his mentor former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira a former foe of Prochazka, and his zeal to earn UFC belts in two different divisions.

For the Brazilian Pereira decorated with a black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in BJJ, there is much to gain from a victory here.

In Prochazka we must rely on the fact that his shoulder which was damn near torn off like a cooked chicken wing has fully recovered and that he is not only cleared to compete but is 110% prepared for war physically and mentally.

Both of these men sport shallow UFC history therefore the significant striking data is somewhat skewed. Each athlete delivers effective powerful damaging shots at high rates. Pereira lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and allows 3.70 so he is accruing damage while mindful of defense.

Prochazka delivers his strikes with similar frequency but with well more power but his defense is less sound. Jiri lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute but he absorbs 5.40 per minute which makes for a fighter ‘willing to eat one to give one’.

It’s my position that Pereira is the more diligent, refined, precise striker while Jiri is the more telegraphing but devastating one.

Each man maims opponents with bludgeoning leg kicks in conjunction with those long damaging strikes but with Jiri the power and devastating effects are clear as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents.

Pereira has not displayed the finishing traits or ferocity in the cage we have seen from Jiri especially in his sole light heavyweight tussle against Blachowicz.

Makers have made the total in this bout 1.5Rds Over -130

I can’t envision something that looks like an early finish in this fight.

Pat Sabatini -135 vs. Diego Lopes +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Sabatini, from Philadelphia area brings a well-rounded fight arsenal to his bouts. Solid wrestling complimented by black belts in BJJ and a Korean Karate fight form called ‘Tang Soo Do’ are Sabatini’s credentials. When he has it going well Sabatini employs aggressive forward pressure to clasp, clinch and control opponents. He’s dominant in the clinch, against the fence or on the floor with opponents for on the feet he is unsure of himself offensively and somewhat ineffective defensively.

Lopes hits the ‘Big Apple’ with revenge on his mind for his UFC debut was in New Jersey against Movsar Evloev this past May. In that bout Lopes looked like anything but a debuting athlete. He gave eighth ranked Evloev all he could handle in that decision loss and it was that night that I recognized future opportunity on this young Brazilian gamer.

In this fight Lopes will be the younger man by three years, he’s two inches taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage arms and legs.

As importantly Lopes BJJ grappling is on par to Sabatini’s BJJ wrestling though I credit Lopes with far more fluidity and natural striking ability as well his ability to take a shot to the schnoz is a strength.

Achilles heel to Sabatini unfortunately is his balsa wood beak for if flushed on the face Sabatini can fold up as we witnessed against a long, tall, gangly Damon Jackson.

Once this bout begins, I look for Lopes to be fresher, faster, stronger and able to keep this fight standing and at distance. From there his striking will have maximum effect on Sabatini as he tries to work his way inside to engage.

Lopes +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -180

Benoit St. Denis -230 vs. Matt Frevola +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

I’m warning everyone now that this fight is pure violence.

Matt ‘the Steamrolla’ Frevola, a lieutenant in the US Army reserve fights out of Long Island with the Longo Weidman team. He holds a brown belt in BJJ but his game really revolves around striking …with power. Frevola’s ideal scenario is to engage anyone, anywhere in a closed quarter, flat footed throwdown.

Frevola’s power is fight ending as witnessed by the cocky Drew Dober who was iced by Frevola in his last outing. However, in this fight Frevola steps up in class against an athlete that I believe is on his way straight to the top five of the lightweight division.

In St. Denis we have an ex-military green beret in the French Army. He’s taller, longer and younger than is the local New Yorker as well he is gifted with a more complete fight arsenal. St. Denis thrives in the firestorm of fury and is able to dominate anywhere the fight takes place.

His foe Frevola needs fights to remain on the feet to have his best chance to win while St. Denis can shake, rattle or roll from anywhere in the cage.

Frevola will take this fight directly to St. Denis. St. Denis will walk down Frevola with urgency and ill intent. The result will be some outstanding watching!

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -150

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PT. Look for it across all platforms.

Enjoy the bouts and Thank you for reading.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

The ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast introduction

Today the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast, a comprehensive review of the opening lines for each week’s UFC card drops for its inaugural session. Get it on my front page or anywhere you get your podcasts!

The 10-12 minute podcast will focus on each week’s UFC opening fight lines, where they have moved and where they may move. It’s a terrific supplement/precursor to the ’Bout Business Podcast as it highlights early thoughts and delivers potential advantageous wagers.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

Speaking of the ‘Bout Business Podcast, on January 1st 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.

The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.

I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:

  • Everything I do here is business. First proceeds from any podcast income will go to paying off the cost of the new GambLou.com webpage.
  • Green Roll Media is my podcast partner and for two years they have worked with me to initiate our momentum. In 2024, proceeds from podcast memberships (in conjunction with webpage fulfillment) will be paid to Green Roll. They have produced a brilliant podcast for our profitability and it’s time they too receive compensation for their investment into ‘Bout Business Podcast success.

MOST IMPORTANT

  • Investors who sign up for the podcast’s yearly membership (the Tap out, $199.99) will be provided regular updates on the flow of monetary contributions to the Mission.

For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.

So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.

As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.

The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.

Request

My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.

For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.

Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com

Thank you for any consideration

Louis Finocchiaro

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Deposits; Sneak-Teep Podcast

The Sneak-Teep Podcast debuts next Tuesday!

On it, I’ll review opening lines for each week’s UFC event. Line openers, line movement and insight regarding any such movement will be covered in a brief preview on a fight by fight basis.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023 results to date: 91-87 +28.33u 16% ROI (+127)*

*Note: With the JBJ cancellation each of the 2 parlay legs that we had now convert to a 1 team parlay. For Marcos -135 we earn .75u and with Tafa as -200 we earn .50 so there are 2 wins and 1.25u of profit added because of that cancellation.

Beginning January 1 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available ONLY on the GambLou.com webpage. Membership opportunities are available to all. Please go to the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for specifics about my goal of creating a contribution stream to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucsom, AZ.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 294 Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II: Makh the knife

UFC 294 from Abu Dhabi, the Arab Emirates is comprised of thirteen MMA bouts featuring athletes from India, Afghanistan, England, Tajikistan, Nigeria, and Dagestan not to mention staples like Brazil, Russia and the US.

Prelims for UFC 294 begin at 7am PST with the main card kicking-off at 11am PST. This week we’ll enjoy KOs with our coffee.

Both Main and co main events have been altered with new opponents in the last couple of weeks compounding the interest and intrigue for each bout.

Paramount in profiting from UFC events on foreign soil is understanding that the UFC is primarily interested in its growth. Expansion of its brand comes from igniting interest in every corner of the world and the most effective way to accomplish that is to grant regional athletes somewhat favorable matchups when these foreign cards are held.

Local talent succeeding fuels regional growth and with athletes from remote countries like Afghanistan and India featured on this card it takes a little more scrutiny to determine if the regional athlete is set up favorably or not.

Champion Islam Makhachev -260 vs. Alex Volkanovski +210 Lightweight (155lbs.) Title

This rematch, several months after their original tussle stands to be much different this time around based on the fact that current featherweight champion Volkanovski takes this challenge on about two weeks’ notice.

Australian Volkanovski, the current Featherweight title holder and acknowledged ‘pound for pound’* champion in the UFC again moves up a weight class to challenge Russian grappling savant Makhachev.

Makhachev holds the lightweight title. He is going to be challenged by the late notice change of opponent for he was preparing for a completely different fighting challenge and one he surely felt more comfortable with.

Now instead of a long lanky Brazilian foe he gets an unrelenting Aussie buzzsaw who had Makhachev on the ropes in the fifth round of their razor close split decision fight this past February.

Makhachev is four inches the taller man but he’ll have no reach advantage, he’s three years younger at thirty-two and he’s the competitor used to facing larger, heavier athletes in competition. His striking is serviceable and his grappling/sambo/wrestling is world class dominant.

In Volkanovski we get a uniquely constructed athlete who in his youth played championship team rugby at 205lbs! Volkanovski uses discipline, fortitude, and grit in order to attain the 145lb. limit let alone dominate there.

Based on his performance in their first bout, Volkanovski should have no issues competing at lightweight but how much does this bout change from the first based on the short notice nature to each athlete as well the lack of camp time for Volkanovski?

Volkanovski’s footwork and striking showed to be superior to Makhachev’s in the first bout and while he’s not the grappling threat that Makhachev is, his wrestling base coupled with his short stout frame presented Makhachev with a tremendous challenge especially as the fight wore on and the Russian began to slow.

Once the bell for this rematch rings, I’ll be lasered in on how Volkanovski approaches champion Makhachev. Will he use patience and try to go deep into the fight showing more potential conditioning than many may give him credit for? Or, will Volk attack and try to get the belt wrested from the champion early based again on the short notice nature of this fight?

For Makhachev nothing changes. He’s going to wrestle early and often for that’s the best way to usurp Volkanovski’s energy and make him vulnerable in the later rounds. I must say that while Makhachev’s had the benefit of a full camp, he’s surely feeling the anxiety in this switch of opponent’s because Volkanovski is THE most viable threat to Makhachev in my judgement.

Volkanovski’s mentality coupled with that compact frame, incredible strength, Greco-Roman wrestling base are his weaponry. Something tells me a professional like Volk while not actively training is never far away from top conditioning anyway. I believe that.

Makhachev opened -330 in the first bout and closed -400.

In this one Makhachev opened -200 and has been bet up to current -260 most likely based on the fact that he’s the legitimate Lightweight titleholder with a full training camp behind him.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125

I’ll have more to say about this fight as the week wears on.

Khamzat Chimaev -275 vs. Kamaru Usman +230 Middleweight co main event

Like Volkanovski above, former champion Welterweight Kamaru Usman steps into this 185lb. Middleweight bout on very short notice while his opponent, fourth ranked Welterweight Chimaev has had the benefit of a full camp.

185lbs is the target weight class Chimaev has been preparing to compete in for months now but for Usman this will be his first foray into competing at middleweight.

Russian Chimaev sports a world class freestyle wrestling base, a purple belt in BJJ, a striking acumen that is yet developing and a cardio vascular capability that was regarded as elite until his bout with Gil Burns. Many say it was the cut and thus we’ll learn plenty from watching these to vie at 185.

Chimaev’s last bout was a cakewalk finish against Kevin Holland, an athlete that has little wrestling acumen prior to that he overpowered gatekeeper Li Jingliang and Gerald Meerschardt before he was truly tested by top ten talent Gil Burns, a fighter that was pulverized by Usman in a recent fight.

Until the Burns fight Chimaev’s momentum was skyrocketing, he then walked through a singularly equipped Kevin Holland and arrives to this bout after being inactive for over a year.

Chimaev, up in weight and coming in somewhat inactive facing off against a legitimate title contender in Usman is surely a test that should Chimaev pass will push him right into title contention.

Usman’s motives for taking this bout revolve around the exact same motivations as Chmaev’s. By daring to be great on short notice Usman himself will be propelled into the top contender status (in the welterweight division) should he be able to get his hand raised against a guy in Chimaev that few are willing to face no matter the weight class.

Chimaev opened -310 for this bout.

Total for this bout: 2.5Rds. Under -160

Anshul Jubli -300 vs. Mike Breeden +250 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This appears to be a perfect example of the organization’s zeal to seep deep into every corner of the athletic world in order to both capture talent and fans.

Jubli is 6’0” and twenty-eight years old and arrives with plenty of hype as he’s the first fighter of Indian descent in the UFC.

When reviewing his record, it’s hard to hold his work against local talent against him understanding that India is still relatively novice when it comes to MMA.

Jubli is a refined boxer with a stiff, straight jab as well he holds a solid wrestling base but until I see him against legitimate UFC caliber talent, I’ll consider this young man someone the UFC can cash in on if only he can execute Saturday, then beyond.

Jubli earned a win in the ‘Road to the UFC’ production via split decision then won impressively in his UFC debit this past February against Jeka Saragih a singularly dimensioned debuting fighter himself.

In Mike Breeden we get a fighter that’s 0-3 in the UFC and has lost two of those in the first round however we must peel the handicap back a bit to understand that Breeden is the athlete who has competed against a far more elite level of talent than has Jubli.

Breeden’s loss to Alex Hernandez was his debut. He then took Nathan Levy to a decision loss and in his last was stopped in the first against firebomber Terrence McKinney in what many consider to be an early stoppage.

Breeden’s focused on this fourth fight because he knows most fighters only get three losses before they’re booted.

He’s got his back against the wall, he’s desperate to remain in the UFC, he feels his last fight ended unfairly, he has a wealth more experience, he’s been in with better fighters and he’s coming to award young Mr. Jubli his PhD. in MMA

Breeden +250

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -200

Breeden will need to get this fight into the second round at all costs for the longer this bout goes the more dominant he’ll become.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is searing through 2023. The Podcast drops early Friday morning PST because of the early Saturday start time.

Enjoy the Bouts and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV81 Yusuff vs. Barboza: Super fly

Last week’s UFC Las Vegas 80 proved that in the fight game all athlete’s must be respected. I made the blunder of having perceived that Bobby ‘King’ Green had no chance whatsoever in last week’s main event against Grant Dawson.

Green knocked Dawson cold inside two minutes of the opening round. Lesson learned: respect all fighters at all times because every athlete that steps into the cage deserves respect and does have a chance at winning. That was a rookie mistake on my part.

We move forward with a 16-16 -.85-unit tally into this week’s UFC LV81.

Sudiq Yusuff -160 vs. Edson Barboza +135 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

These are top fifteen ranked athletes which display’s how deeply talented the featherweight division of the UFC is.

Brazilian Barboza now thirty-seven, has earned a Black prajied in Muay Thai, a Black belt in Taekwondo as well a Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s spent a great deal of his career battering lightweight fighters a weight class above this and has now transitioned into an elite level 145’er.

A devastatingly powerful striker with flamboyant tendencies Barboza requires distance to measure opponents then in the blink of an eye, launch a spinning heel into their temple.

Barboza’s been in with the elite of two divisions, he’s remains able to utilize his athleticism and, in this bout, he’ll be the taller, longer, larger fighter.

In Nigerian Yusuff we have an athletic, ascending fighter decorated with a blue belt in BJJ but nowhere near as awarded as his opponent Barboza.

Yusuff is 6-1 in the UFC but his loss in the co main event three fights back to Arnold Allen displayed more aptitude in that decision loss than Yusuff had offered in all of his previous bouts. He’s since executed two sound victories which seemingly have him in optimal position for this return to elite competition and his first main event opportunity.

Once the bell rings for round 1, it’s reasonable to expect Barboza to utilize his size, athleticism and IQ to remain at distance from the more compact power striker and try to accrue damage from outside of Yusuff’s limited striking range.

Yusuff for his part must understand that he has twenty-five minutes here, patience is required. At thirty, he is in his prime while Barboza is seven years older and cutting dynamic amounts of weight to compete in this division.

A Yusuff plan that involves constant, matriculated forward pressure behind a combination based striking attack is his path to success provided his goal is to tire the old warrior early in this bout then take him into the championship rounds for a beating.

Any plan of challenging the more grizzled MMA veteran into a fire fight in the opening minutes may prove to be unwise. Yusuff must be patient early.

Yusuff’s goal is to take Barboza’s place in the rankings and I believe his youth, complimented by his innate quickness and explosiveness will be apparent in the later stages of this fight when Barboza begins to wane and Yusuff begins to fire.

Yusuff -160

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -145

Fight starts Round 4 +100

Jonathan Martinez -115 vs. Adrian Yanez -105 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Two top fifteen ranked Texas athletes will meet Saturday in what may be the most compelling bout on the card.

Martinez, a southpaw has deeper experience and has been in with higher level opponents than has Yanez. His blue belt in BJJ only supplements Martinez’s strength which is based in Muay Thai striking.

Martinez is not flashy, fast, slick or evasive but he is steady, forward pressing, straight with his strikes and numbing with his kicks.

Yanez is the more athletically inclined fighter, he’s the fleeter afoot, he has the faster hands and is overall a more aggressive striker than is Martinez. Yanez owns a black belt in BJJ but I am doubtful we’ll see these two tussle on the floor rather this fight sets up to be a very competitive striking battle.

In this striking battle, It’s the faster more precision striking Yanez that should own advantage early as well as this fight progresses and remains on the feet. Yanez gassed pretty good in his last outing and it’s my judgement that we’ll see a more measured, refined, patient Adrian Yanez and one that knows he must keep this fight standing to win.

I expect Martinez to mix it up more because he can, and he can effectively usurp Yanez’s energy by doing so. It will be interesting to determine which of these two young ascending athletes is able to get their hand raised and be propelled up the rankings of this competitive division.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -135

I don’t believe either of these two warriors has any quit or defeat in them. I believe this dance goes to decision.

Over 2.5 Rds. +115

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is off yet another profitable UFC Saturday. Catch it Friday around Noon PT everywhere podcasts are offered.

Enjoy the Fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

Money Morning UFC accounting; the Sneak-Teep Podcast

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts!

UFC receipts for the Weekend: 4-2 +1.05u

2023 UFC Profitability: 84-83 +23.48 units, 14%ROI, (+123)

We won a unit Saturday but my lack of respect for Bobby Green cost us a unit of profit. Always respect the athletes in UFC fights fight enthusiasts. I did not give Green any chance in the fight. I overvalued Dawson and ignored Green. The fool was me!

We move on.

Look for my weekly UFC opening line report, the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast to commence Tuesday October 31st for the now new Sao Paolo main event featuring Jaiton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV80 Dawson vs. Green: King-pin’ned?

After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s fight night production.

Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.

In 2023 Favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.

Grant Dawson -410 vs. Bobby Green +330 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021 realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green’s a purple belt in BJJ but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.

In standing affairs Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his precision accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to out dazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green who is now thirty-seven can slow down resulting in his potentially get caught (see drew Dober) or simply out wrestled.

Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.

Dawson’s faced world class opponents but in this one he’ll be getting a slickster, a ‘shuck and jiving’ fleet footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.

Dawson will be the stoic forward pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.

In this fight we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up thirty-seven-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson reigning damage from the top.

Dawson is an ascending talent in the division and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.

Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -215

Joe Pyfer -455 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent in mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, power striker who has shown great finishing ability while simultaneously developing his well roundedness. Pyfer’s entering competitive high level grappling tourneys which shows us that he aspires compliment those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.

In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win and the thirty-eight-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.

Once the bell rings for this fight I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight and it’s my judgement that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight where I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, experience together make Alhassan a threat against a worthy young warrior that may earn his PhD. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.

Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -215

Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers slight advantage over his straight up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI 2023. It drops with all my final post weigh-in releases Friday around Noon PST.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Lightweight elimination

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s Fight Night offering a main event worthy of PPV status. Two top seven Lightweight contenders headline a fight slate consisting of eleven bouts ranging from Strawweight (115lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.).

Many of the combatants competing on this card may lack headliner status but with one great performance each/any/all could catapult themselves into higher profile bouts.

In the UFC combatants better finish opponents and/or put rear ends in seats (preferably both) in order to be highlighted and inserted into a main event situation.

Last week my release of Canadian Jas Jasudavicious lost which puts results to date 15-15 -0.85u. It’s time for a fourth quarter run!

Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +135 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Polish warrior Gamrot enters this bout sixth ranked in the division and he’s utilized his world class wrestling base as the foundation for his success.

Gamrot’s supplemented his wrestling base with a black belt in BJJ which allows him to apply a forward pressing, heavy pressure grappling attack designed to back opponents up. Forward pressure is foundational to Gamrot success as he relies on grounding opponents then exercising dominance from the mat.

A couple bouts back against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot got caught off guard by a prepared, experienced well-rounded adversary. He next faced 6’3” monster and top ten lightweight power striker Jailin Turner on short notice and was able to earn victory in the most difficult of circumstances. He was focused on getting back into the win column after what he regarded as a learning experience.

Gamrot is a game, focused, experienced and confident athlete entering this bout and it matters little who is put in the cage with him for he’s competed against world class adversaries all possessing diverse, fight ending weaponry.

Sixth ranked Rafael Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with an awareness of wrestling but he’s not near as fluent as is his opponent in that capacity. Rather, Fiziev employs a dynamic Muay Thai striking attack as his fighting base. From there he’s added a blue belt in BJJ to compliment his fighting repertoire.

Fiziev stands as the striking coach at the world-famous ‘Tiger Muay Thai’ gym in Phuket Thailand, so take it from me that his movement, strike defense, strike offense and his tactical abilities are unequaled.

Fiziev enters this fight as Gamrot did against Turner in his last, on the bounce off a loss to Justin Gaethje that in my judgment makes Fiziev extremely dangerous in this spot situationally.

That said, scouring Fiziev’s past opponents leaves me wondering why he has never faced as formidable or at least any formidable wrestling/sambo/grappling based opponents…. Could this have been by design?

Fiziev’s last opponent, Justin Gaethje painted Fiziev’s fence via striking this past March and with the humiliation of that beatdown in the rear view, Fiziev enters this fight with urgency and a singularity of focus.

Fiziev’s striking skills are refined, diverse and more damaging than are Gamrot’s and I must believe it’s Fiziev’s intention to make this a striking competition rather than allowing Gamrot to compete where he is most lethal (and Fiziev untested), against the fence and on the canvas.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch Fiziev address the immediate forward press and wrestling introduction from Gamrot. It will be critical for Gamrot to tax Fiziev and make him effort throughout the full length of the TWENTY-FIVE MINUTE fight for cardio is surely an advantage for Gamrot especially in a grueling, grinding, taxing wrestling competition which Gamrot must make this.

Fiziev is most likely to finish opponents via volume striking/kicking, he must maintain distance in order to launch and land. How he creates and maintains the necessary spacing to strike/kick is foundational to his success in this fight. How he handles Gamrot’s take down offense will also be important to his chances of earning victory.

Fiziev’s youth, his compact physique and how it translates into take down defense, the fact that he’s ‘on the bounce’ seem advantages for him in this bout.

The fact that he has not really competed against a forward pressing vice grip of a wrestling based mixed martial artist has me wondering how well prepared he may be for Gamrot’s twenty-five minutes of wrestling pressure.

For Gamrot, he must systematically break down this deft striker and force him backwards, force him to defend, force him to wrestle and force him to tire. Gamrot owns the sure way to sap the zip from any effective striker with his ability to wrestle for rounds…not minutes.

From a wrestling/grappling and mixed martial arts perspective it’s my belief that Gamrot holds advantage.

For Fiziev, it’s all about keeping this bout on the feet. He must maintain striking distance through movement and counterstriking to discourage Gamrot from rushing into the pocket to engage.

Fiziev’s take down defense will be foundational to his success because he’ll be as awkward and ineffective on the floor as Gamrot will be having to compete solely on the feet.

At the end of the day, I’ll take the wrestling-based athlete as underdog in this situation.

Gamrot +135

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -125

Charles Jourdain -135 vs. Ricardo Ramos +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Ramos from Brazil is well rounded in his fight makeup but specializes is striking and especially spinning kicks and elbows.

Jourdain is a kickboxing specialist at heart and while he sports BJJ skill he prefers to out point opponents with movement, precision strikes and kicks but with little power.

Early in this bout I look for both men to stand and measure the other with striking but as the bout wears on it surely makes sense for Ramos to find a way inside to engage then drag Jourdain down to the mat where Ramos is dangerous and Jourdain is somewhat exposed.

Lean to Ramos

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Over -130

Lean to the over

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast has earned a net 22.80 units in 2023 showing 15% ROI. The podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC card. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights