Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

The ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast introduction

Today the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast, a comprehensive review of the opening lines for each week’s UFC card drops for its inaugural session. Get it on my front page or anywhere you get your podcasts!

The 10-12 minute podcast will focus on each week’s UFC opening fight lines, where they have moved and where they may move. It’s a terrific supplement/precursor to the ’Bout Business Podcast as it highlights early thoughts and delivers potential advantageous wagers.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

Speaking of the ‘Bout Business Podcast, on January 1st 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.

The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.

I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:

  • Everything I do here is business. First proceeds from any podcast income will go to paying off the cost of the new GambLou.com webpage.
  • Green Roll Media is my podcast partner and for two years they have worked with me to initiate our momentum. In 2024, proceeds from podcast memberships (in conjunction with webpage fulfillment) will be paid to Green Roll. They have produced a brilliant podcast for our profitability and it’s time they too receive compensation for their investment into ‘Bout Business Podcast success.

MOST IMPORTANT

  • Investors who sign up for the podcast’s yearly membership (the Tap out, $199.99) will be provided regular updates on the flow of monetary contributions to the Mission.

For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.

So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.

As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.

The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.

Request

My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.

For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.

Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com

Thank you for any consideration

Louis Finocchiaro

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Deposits; Sneak-Teep Podcast

The Sneak-Teep Podcast debuts next Tuesday!

On it, I’ll review opening lines for each week’s UFC event. Line openers, line movement and insight regarding any such movement will be covered in a brief preview on a fight by fight basis.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023 results to date: 91-87 +28.33u 16% ROI (+127)*

*Note: With the JBJ cancellation each of the 2 parlay legs that we had now convert to a 1 team parlay. For Marcos -135 we earn .75u and with Tafa as -200 we earn .50 so there are 2 wins and 1.25u of profit added because of that cancellation.

Beginning January 1 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available ONLY on the GambLou.com webpage. Membership opportunities are available to all. Please go to the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for specifics about my goal of creating a contribution stream to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucsom, AZ.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 294 Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II: Makh the knife

UFC 294 from Abu Dhabi, the Arab Emirates is comprised of thirteen MMA bouts featuring athletes from India, Afghanistan, England, Tajikistan, Nigeria, and Dagestan not to mention staples like Brazil, Russia and the US.

Prelims for UFC 294 begin at 7am PST with the main card kicking-off at 11am PST. This week we’ll enjoy KOs with our coffee.

Both Main and co main events have been altered with new opponents in the last couple of weeks compounding the interest and intrigue for each bout.

Paramount in profiting from UFC events on foreign soil is understanding that the UFC is primarily interested in its growth. Expansion of its brand comes from igniting interest in every corner of the world and the most effective way to accomplish that is to grant regional athletes somewhat favorable matchups when these foreign cards are held.

Local talent succeeding fuels regional growth and with athletes from remote countries like Afghanistan and India featured on this card it takes a little more scrutiny to determine if the regional athlete is set up favorably or not.

Champion Islam Makhachev -260 vs. Alex Volkanovski +210 Lightweight (155lbs.) Title

This rematch, several months after their original tussle stands to be much different this time around based on the fact that current featherweight champion Volkanovski takes this challenge on about two weeks’ notice.

Australian Volkanovski, the current Featherweight title holder and acknowledged ‘pound for pound’* champion in the UFC again moves up a weight class to challenge Russian grappling savant Makhachev.

Makhachev holds the lightweight title. He is going to be challenged by the late notice change of opponent for he was preparing for a completely different fighting challenge and one he surely felt more comfortable with.

Now instead of a long lanky Brazilian foe he gets an unrelenting Aussie buzzsaw who had Makhachev on the ropes in the fifth round of their razor close split decision fight this past February.

Makhachev is four inches the taller man but he’ll have no reach advantage, he’s three years younger at thirty-two and he’s the competitor used to facing larger, heavier athletes in competition. His striking is serviceable and his grappling/sambo/wrestling is world class dominant.

In Volkanovski we get a uniquely constructed athlete who in his youth played championship team rugby at 205lbs! Volkanovski uses discipline, fortitude, and grit in order to attain the 145lb. limit let alone dominate there.

Based on his performance in their first bout, Volkanovski should have no issues competing at lightweight but how much does this bout change from the first based on the short notice nature to each athlete as well the lack of camp time for Volkanovski?

Volkanovski’s footwork and striking showed to be superior to Makhachev’s in the first bout and while he’s not the grappling threat that Makhachev is, his wrestling base coupled with his short stout frame presented Makhachev with a tremendous challenge especially as the fight wore on and the Russian began to slow.

Once the bell for this rematch rings, I’ll be lasered in on how Volkanovski approaches champion Makhachev. Will he use patience and try to go deep into the fight showing more potential conditioning than many may give him credit for? Or, will Volk attack and try to get the belt wrested from the champion early based again on the short notice nature of this fight?

For Makhachev nothing changes. He’s going to wrestle early and often for that’s the best way to usurp Volkanovski’s energy and make him vulnerable in the later rounds. I must say that while Makhachev’s had the benefit of a full camp, he’s surely feeling the anxiety in this switch of opponent’s because Volkanovski is THE most viable threat to Makhachev in my judgement.

Volkanovski’s mentality coupled with that compact frame, incredible strength, Greco-Roman wrestling base are his weaponry. Something tells me a professional like Volk while not actively training is never far away from top conditioning anyway. I believe that.

Makhachev opened -330 in the first bout and closed -400.

In this one Makhachev opened -200 and has been bet up to current -260 most likely based on the fact that he’s the legitimate Lightweight titleholder with a full training camp behind him.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125

I’ll have more to say about this fight as the week wears on.

Khamzat Chimaev -275 vs. Kamaru Usman +230 Middleweight co main event

Like Volkanovski above, former champion Welterweight Kamaru Usman steps into this 185lb. Middleweight bout on very short notice while his opponent, fourth ranked Welterweight Chimaev has had the benefit of a full camp.

185lbs is the target weight class Chimaev has been preparing to compete in for months now but for Usman this will be his first foray into competing at middleweight.

Russian Chimaev sports a world class freestyle wrestling base, a purple belt in BJJ, a striking acumen that is yet developing and a cardio vascular capability that was regarded as elite until his bout with Gil Burns. Many say it was the cut and thus we’ll learn plenty from watching these to vie at 185.

Chimaev’s last bout was a cakewalk finish against Kevin Holland, an athlete that has little wrestling acumen prior to that he overpowered gatekeeper Li Jingliang and Gerald Meerschardt before he was truly tested by top ten talent Gil Burns, a fighter that was pulverized by Usman in a recent fight.

Until the Burns fight Chimaev’s momentum was skyrocketing, he then walked through a singularly equipped Kevin Holland and arrives to this bout after being inactive for over a year.

Chimaev, up in weight and coming in somewhat inactive facing off against a legitimate title contender in Usman is surely a test that should Chimaev pass will push him right into title contention.

Usman’s motives for taking this bout revolve around the exact same motivations as Chmaev’s. By daring to be great on short notice Usman himself will be propelled into the top contender status (in the welterweight division) should he be able to get his hand raised against a guy in Chimaev that few are willing to face no matter the weight class.

Chimaev opened -310 for this bout.

Total for this bout: 2.5Rds. Under -160

Anshul Jubli -300 vs. Mike Breeden +250 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This appears to be a perfect example of the organization’s zeal to seep deep into every corner of the athletic world in order to both capture talent and fans.

Jubli is 6’0” and twenty-eight years old and arrives with plenty of hype as he’s the first fighter of Indian descent in the UFC.

When reviewing his record, it’s hard to hold his work against local talent against him understanding that India is still relatively novice when it comes to MMA.

Jubli is a refined boxer with a stiff, straight jab as well he holds a solid wrestling base but until I see him against legitimate UFC caliber talent, I’ll consider this young man someone the UFC can cash in on if only he can execute Saturday, then beyond.

Jubli earned a win in the ‘Road to the UFC’ production via split decision then won impressively in his UFC debit this past February against Jeka Saragih a singularly dimensioned debuting fighter himself.

In Mike Breeden we get a fighter that’s 0-3 in the UFC and has lost two of those in the first round however we must peel the handicap back a bit to understand that Breeden is the athlete who has competed against a far more elite level of talent than has Jubli.

Breeden’s loss to Alex Hernandez was his debut. He then took Nathan Levy to a decision loss and in his last was stopped in the first against firebomber Terrence McKinney in what many consider to be an early stoppage.

Breeden’s focused on this fourth fight because he knows most fighters only get three losses before they’re booted.

He’s got his back against the wall, he’s desperate to remain in the UFC, he feels his last fight ended unfairly, he has a wealth more experience, he’s been in with better fighters and he’s coming to award young Mr. Jubli his PhD. in MMA

Breeden +250

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -200

Breeden will need to get this fight into the second round at all costs for the longer this bout goes the more dominant he’ll become.

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is searing through 2023. The Podcast drops early Friday morning PST because of the early Saturday start time.

Enjoy the Bouts and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV81 Yusuff vs. Barboza: Super fly

Last week’s UFC Las Vegas 80 proved that in the fight game all athlete’s must be respected. I made the blunder of having perceived that Bobby ‘King’ Green had no chance whatsoever in last week’s main event against Grant Dawson.

Green knocked Dawson cold inside two minutes of the opening round. Lesson learned: respect all fighters at all times because every athlete that steps into the cage deserves respect and does have a chance at winning. That was a rookie mistake on my part.

We move forward with a 16-16 -.85-unit tally into this week’s UFC LV81.

Sudiq Yusuff -160 vs. Edson Barboza +135 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

These are top fifteen ranked athletes which display’s how deeply talented the featherweight division of the UFC is.

Brazilian Barboza now thirty-seven, has earned a Black prajied in Muay Thai, a Black belt in Taekwondo as well a Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s spent a great deal of his career battering lightweight fighters a weight class above this and has now transitioned into an elite level 145’er.

A devastatingly powerful striker with flamboyant tendencies Barboza requires distance to measure opponents then in the blink of an eye, launch a spinning heel into their temple.

Barboza’s been in with the elite of two divisions, he’s remains able to utilize his athleticism and, in this bout, he’ll be the taller, longer, larger fighter.

In Nigerian Yusuff we have an athletic, ascending fighter decorated with a blue belt in BJJ but nowhere near as awarded as his opponent Barboza.

Yusuff is 6-1 in the UFC but his loss in the co main event three fights back to Arnold Allen displayed more aptitude in that decision loss than Yusuff had offered in all of his previous bouts. He’s since executed two sound victories which seemingly have him in optimal position for this return to elite competition and his first main event opportunity.

Once the bell rings for round 1, it’s reasonable to expect Barboza to utilize his size, athleticism and IQ to remain at distance from the more compact power striker and try to accrue damage from outside of Yusuff’s limited striking range.

Yusuff for his part must understand that he has twenty-five minutes here, patience is required. At thirty, he is in his prime while Barboza is seven years older and cutting dynamic amounts of weight to compete in this division.

A Yusuff plan that involves constant, matriculated forward pressure behind a combination based striking attack is his path to success provided his goal is to tire the old warrior early in this bout then take him into the championship rounds for a beating.

Any plan of challenging the more grizzled MMA veteran into a fire fight in the opening minutes may prove to be unwise. Yusuff must be patient early.

Yusuff’s goal is to take Barboza’s place in the rankings and I believe his youth, complimented by his innate quickness and explosiveness will be apparent in the later stages of this fight when Barboza begins to wane and Yusuff begins to fire.

Yusuff -160

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -145

Fight starts Round 4 +100

Jonathan Martinez -115 vs. Adrian Yanez -105 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Two top fifteen ranked Texas athletes will meet Saturday in what may be the most compelling bout on the card.

Martinez, a southpaw has deeper experience and has been in with higher level opponents than has Yanez. His blue belt in BJJ only supplements Martinez’s strength which is based in Muay Thai striking.

Martinez is not flashy, fast, slick or evasive but he is steady, forward pressing, straight with his strikes and numbing with his kicks.

Yanez is the more athletically inclined fighter, he’s the fleeter afoot, he has the faster hands and is overall a more aggressive striker than is Martinez. Yanez owns a black belt in BJJ but I am doubtful we’ll see these two tussle on the floor rather this fight sets up to be a very competitive striking battle.

In this striking battle, It’s the faster more precision striking Yanez that should own advantage early as well as this fight progresses and remains on the feet. Yanez gassed pretty good in his last outing and it’s my judgement that we’ll see a more measured, refined, patient Adrian Yanez and one that knows he must keep this fight standing to win.

I expect Martinez to mix it up more because he can, and he can effectively usurp Yanez’s energy by doing so. It will be interesting to determine which of these two young ascending athletes is able to get their hand raised and be propelled up the rankings of this competitive division.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -135

I don’t believe either of these two warriors has any quit or defeat in them. I believe this dance goes to decision.

Over 2.5 Rds. +115

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is off yet another profitable UFC Saturday. Catch it Friday around Noon PT everywhere podcasts are offered.

Enjoy the Fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

Money Morning UFC accounting; the Sneak-Teep Podcast

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts!

UFC receipts for the Weekend: 4-2 +1.05u

2023 UFC Profitability: 84-83 +23.48 units, 14%ROI, (+123)

We won a unit Saturday but my lack of respect for Bobby Green cost us a unit of profit. Always respect the athletes in UFC fights fight enthusiasts. I did not give Green any chance in the fight. I overvalued Dawson and ignored Green. The fool was me!

We move on.

Look for my weekly UFC opening line report, the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast to commence Tuesday October 31st for the now new Sao Paolo main event featuring Jaiton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV80 Dawson vs. Green: King-pin’ned?

After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s fight night production.

Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.

In 2023 Favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.

Grant Dawson -410 vs. Bobby Green +330 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021 realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green’s a purple belt in BJJ but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.

In standing affairs Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his precision accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to out dazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green who is now thirty-seven can slow down resulting in his potentially get caught (see drew Dober) or simply out wrestled.

Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.

Dawson’s faced world class opponents but in this one he’ll be getting a slickster, a ‘shuck and jiving’ fleet footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.

Dawson will be the stoic forward pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.

In this fight we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up thirty-seven-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson reigning damage from the top.

Dawson is an ascending talent in the division and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.

Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -215

Joe Pyfer -455 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent in mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, power striker who has shown great finishing ability while simultaneously developing his well roundedness. Pyfer’s entering competitive high level grappling tourneys which shows us that he aspires compliment those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.

In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win and the thirty-eight-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.

Once the bell rings for this fight I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight and it’s my judgement that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight where I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, experience together make Alhassan a threat against a worthy young warrior that may earn his PhD. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.

Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -215

Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers slight advantage over his straight up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI 2023. It drops with all my final post weigh-in releases Friday around Noon PST.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Lightweight elimination

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s Fight Night offering a main event worthy of PPV status. Two top seven Lightweight contenders headline a fight slate consisting of eleven bouts ranging from Strawweight (115lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.).

Many of the combatants competing on this card may lack headliner status but with one great performance each/any/all could catapult themselves into higher profile bouts.

In the UFC combatants better finish opponents and/or put rear ends in seats (preferably both) in order to be highlighted and inserted into a main event situation.

Last week my release of Canadian Jas Jasudavicious lost which puts results to date 15-15 -0.85u. It’s time for a fourth quarter run!

Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +135 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Polish warrior Gamrot enters this bout sixth ranked in the division and he’s utilized his world class wrestling base as the foundation for his success.

Gamrot’s supplemented his wrestling base with a black belt in BJJ which allows him to apply a forward pressing, heavy pressure grappling attack designed to back opponents up. Forward pressure is foundational to Gamrot success as he relies on grounding opponents then exercising dominance from the mat.

A couple bouts back against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot got caught off guard by a prepared, experienced well-rounded adversary. He next faced 6’3” monster and top ten lightweight power striker Jailin Turner on short notice and was able to earn victory in the most difficult of circumstances. He was focused on getting back into the win column after what he regarded as a learning experience.

Gamrot is a game, focused, experienced and confident athlete entering this bout and it matters little who is put in the cage with him for he’s competed against world class adversaries all possessing diverse, fight ending weaponry.

Sixth ranked Rafael Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with an awareness of wrestling but he’s not near as fluent as is his opponent in that capacity. Rather, Fiziev employs a dynamic Muay Thai striking attack as his fighting base. From there he’s added a blue belt in BJJ to compliment his fighting repertoire.

Fiziev stands as the striking coach at the world-famous ‘Tiger Muay Thai’ gym in Phuket Thailand, so take it from me that his movement, strike defense, strike offense and his tactical abilities are unequaled.

Fiziev enters this fight as Gamrot did against Turner in his last, on the bounce off a loss to Justin Gaethje that in my judgment makes Fiziev extremely dangerous in this spot situationally.

That said, scouring Fiziev’s past opponents leaves me wondering why he has never faced as formidable or at least any formidable wrestling/sambo/grappling based opponents…. Could this have been by design?

Fiziev’s last opponent, Justin Gaethje painted Fiziev’s fence via striking this past March and with the humiliation of that beatdown in the rear view, Fiziev enters this fight with urgency and a singularity of focus.

Fiziev’s striking skills are refined, diverse and more damaging than are Gamrot’s and I must believe it’s Fiziev’s intention to make this a striking competition rather than allowing Gamrot to compete where he is most lethal (and Fiziev untested), against the fence and on the canvas.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch Fiziev address the immediate forward press and wrestling introduction from Gamrot. It will be critical for Gamrot to tax Fiziev and make him effort throughout the full length of the TWENTY-FIVE MINUTE fight for cardio is surely an advantage for Gamrot especially in a grueling, grinding, taxing wrestling competition which Gamrot must make this.

Fiziev is most likely to finish opponents via volume striking/kicking, he must maintain distance in order to launch and land. How he creates and maintains the necessary spacing to strike/kick is foundational to his success in this fight. How he handles Gamrot’s take down offense will also be important to his chances of earning victory.

Fiziev’s youth, his compact physique and how it translates into take down defense, the fact that he’s ‘on the bounce’ seem advantages for him in this bout.

The fact that he has not really competed against a forward pressing vice grip of a wrestling based mixed martial artist has me wondering how well prepared he may be for Gamrot’s twenty-five minutes of wrestling pressure.

For Gamrot, he must systematically break down this deft striker and force him backwards, force him to defend, force him to wrestle and force him to tire. Gamrot owns the sure way to sap the zip from any effective striker with his ability to wrestle for rounds…not minutes.

From a wrestling/grappling and mixed martial arts perspective it’s my belief that Gamrot holds advantage.

For Fiziev, it’s all about keeping this bout on the feet. He must maintain striking distance through movement and counterstriking to discourage Gamrot from rushing into the pocket to engage.

Fiziev’s take down defense will be foundational to his success because he’ll be as awkward and ineffective on the floor as Gamrot will be having to compete solely on the feet.

At the end of the day, I’ll take the wrestling-based athlete as underdog in this situation.

Gamrot +135

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -125

Charles Jourdain -135 vs. Ricardo Ramos +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Ramos from Brazil is well rounded in his fight makeup but specializes is striking and especially spinning kicks and elbows.

Jourdain is a kickboxing specialist at heart and while he sports BJJ skill he prefers to out point opponents with movement, precision strikes and kicks but with little power.

Early in this bout I look for both men to stand and measure the other with striking but as the bout wears on it surely makes sense for Ramos to find a way inside to engage then drag Jourdain down to the mat where Ramos is dangerous and Jourdain is somewhat exposed.

Lean to Ramos

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Over -130

Lean to the over

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast has earned a net 22.80 units in 2023 showing 15% ROI. The podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC card. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Noche Grasso vs. Shechenko: Bulletproof!

Never in my wildest imaginations did I believe that Sean Strickland would actually execute the proper plan of attack to clasp the middleweight title away from former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland with his one-sided decision win has left the MMA community dumbfounded heading into this week’s card.

Now this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas comes ‘Noche UFC’ an event described by the UFC as, “The UFC brings an action-packed card to T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day for the first time ever. It has become a great tradition in combat sports to hold big fights on September 16th, and this year we’re honoring our UFC fans and fighters from Mexican communities with an inaugural Noche UFC.”

On this fight card are six true Mexican fighters and another three of Mexican heritage now residing in the US. They’ll take on other athletes from around the globe in this event highlighted by current Mexican flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s first defense which is a rematch with former champion Valentina Shevchenko who Grasso submitted to earn the title this past March.

Last week we realized great displeasure by wagering on the ‘Pleasure man’ Anton Turkalj. We step back in profitability with the goal of enhancing that bottom line with this week’s release.

Champion Alexa Grasso +140 vs. Valentina Schevchenko -165 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

This line opened months ago Schevchenko -225. Immediately after release I advised ‘Bout Business Podcast listeners to attack that Grasso +195 price. As we can see that price is long gone and the current number depicts a more realistic price on this bout in my judgement.

Shevchenko’s shown an ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life a little bit.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what I was taught by ol’ Angelo Dundee many years ago and I have found this to be so true of fighters.

Dundee would warn of the paradox in this manner; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s they’ve longed for from their fighting success, it’s that notoriety, money and distraction coming from the public accolades that end up diluting the fighter’s skills. Yes, success corrodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to overcome any obstacle. However, she’s now thirty-five and has been competing with absolutely every world class adversary the organization put in front of her since 2015.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight it will be 70% of her pride yearning to recapture that title substantiated with 30% grit, determination and nasty.

For Grasso, she’s has months to reprepare for this second challenge. The old boxing saying that fighters become 35% better once they clasp the championship is not inaccurate in my judgement.

In March Grasso utilized speed, timing and her specific plan for success which ended up being enough to earn her the title. So now Grasso and camp know they had the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this tussle, how will they adjust if at all?

Different in this fight is the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion but the crowd will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts all yearning to see their fighter dominate. So yes, there is pressure on Grasso entering this rematch.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire but she’ll realize too that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully, Valentina! In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know immediately that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title.

Grasso +195 was surely a wrong price. Grasso +150 is more in line. It’s difficult for me to recommend Grasso +150 when I already hold her +195 so I’ll look to a bout other than tis main event to pad 2023 profitability.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -155

This price indicates a potentially close, competitive decision

Tracy Cortez -125 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious +105 women’s flyweight

Tracy Cortez comes from a family of wrestlers. Her forward pressure, clinch attack and cardio are what one would expect from a top end grinding wrestler.

Cortez has faced decent UFC caliber foes and she’s shown an ability to press the pace and utilize her wrestling in the cage. The issue here however is that this is mixed martial arts competition and Cortez, though apt as a pressure wrestler, is lacking with her striking and strike evasion which offers opponents a singularly versed opponent.

Jasmine enters this fight the larger lady, the older fighter and the athlete with deeper experience. She’s also been in the cage with a higher caliber set of opponents. Jasmine is coming off an impressive victory over another forward pressing wrestling- based athlete in Miranda Maverick, one I handicap to be at or above the ability of Ms. Cortez. The Maverick bout could not have come at a better time for Jasmine for it is a terrific precursor to Ms. Cortez as both are very similar in fighting style.

Jasmine’s experience, her size, the absolute bad intention she carries and above all her effective power striking will be the difference in this fight as she’s seen fighters similarly equipped as Cortez. Meanwhile Jasmine represents a substantial step up in class for Cortez and one that will do all she can to finish this fight.

The contention here is that Jasudavicious should be the athlete with the minus next to her name so I find it advantageous to invest in Jasudavicious +105.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -350

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC fight card. This week the Pod will be available around 1pm PT!

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: UFC sweep!

This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!

‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.

2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)

It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!

My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.

Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!