The UFC is in the midst of an eleven-week run of fight productions, this week they host LV 103 at the APEX in Las Vegas where fans are few and the 25’ smaller octagon will be in use.

This card has twelve scheduled fights. There are but three big boy bouts featured in this smaller cage, a Welterweight fight, a middleweight co main event and a heavyweight tussle which is on the underbelly of this slate.

Some may choose to criticize obscurely populated fight cards such as this, however I choose to tip my hat to the UFC for deftly populating each fight card despite the many last-minute changes, cancellations, and injuries. The UFC offers fight fans ten to fourteen bouts per card, forty-four to forty-six times each year, and never cancel an event.

Last week the Moldovan Hulk Ion Cutelaba, submitted his overmatched Turkish opponent as a +165 underdog. Ion’s quick work allowed us to take a huge bite out of this year’s slow start as digital results now stand: 3-4 -1.60.

Manuel Kape -218 vs. Asu Almabaev +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked Kazakhstani fighter Almabaev arrives to this five round main event in relative short notice for Kape was scheduled to fight top ranked men’s flyweight Brandon Royval.

Almabaev has a solid wrestling base complimented by employment of high volume striking. After entering the UFC from K1 Global then Brave, he’s won all four of his bouts although he has faced modestly talented UFC competition to date.

Manuel Kape is a fighter with immense talent but also an immense ego and an obtuse level of overconfidence.

He’s wildly athletic, strong for the division and when focused stands to be regarded as a top three talent. However, he is a bit of a bully, and he’s struggled with weight because he is too big for the division. Couple that with an ego the size of Texas and we have an athlete that can offer any type of performance, from lethargic and under active to lightning quick employing one strike fight ending power.

Kape, an athlete the UFC seems to like, started boxing at fourteen and developed a fluidity of movement, a quick striking offense backed with precision kicks, and he levies profuse power from all limbs.

Kape has three losses in his UFC career, two early losses to fighters who were more experienced and able than he then and a loss to a high-level wrestler two fights back which will be the blueprint for Almabaev in his attack.

A motivated Kape will be difficult for anyone in the division to best but trying to determine which Kape shows up to this fight is almost folly in my opinion.

Kape fights a competitor that has the wrestling/grappling tools to execute exactly what those adversaries in Kape’s three losses did. Almabaev could well be a live underdog in this fight.

Kape opened -250 and is currently -235 with the total lined 3.5Rds Over -200 after opening -150 and it’s rising. We’ll likely see 4.5 as the total by the time mid-week rolls up.

No determination can be made on this fight until weigh-ins if at all, but I hold interest in Almabaev should Kape come in late and heavy.

Julian Marquez -170 vs. Cody Brundage +140 Middleweight co main event 

Two highly desperate fighters compete in the co main event on Saturday.

With a win, one athlete has the chance to solidify standing in the UFC middleweight division, but a loss more than likely puts the loser on the cutting board as both of these backed up battlers enter with this brawl with dubious past performances.

In Marquez we have a power striker who is tough, durable, and willing to engage. Marquez will own height and power advantages over his opponent Saturday but the fact that he is now thirty-four and coming into this fight off of three straight early round finishes is troubling. He must thwart takedowns, keep his opponent standing and be able to expend high energy for fifteen minutes, all of which Marquez has struggled to do previously.

His opponent Cody Brundage has had his own set of futile early career UFC performances, yet it was during a dominant loss, to Bo Nickal where we saw unrelenting forward pressing aggression, wrestling pop and striking ability from Brundage let alone determination which is something he has struggled with in previous fights.

Brundage actually performed his best against a dominant future star in the organization. Since that Nickal fight Brundage had a semi competitive bout against a power striking middleweight in Abdul Rakak Alhassan that was declared a no contest back in July.

So, in this co main event we have two desperate fighters, one, Marquez, a power striker with limited cardio who can wilt under the pressure of any forward pressing wrestler/grappler and the other Brundage, the wrestler who has been finished by strikes twice in his career and can wilt under opposing pressure when a bully opponent flushes him on the face with fists.

In my judgement this bout comes down to cardio and deep seeded guts/grit/heart. In Brundage I have the younger athlete with cardio I know I can trust. He must ensure that he does not get touched early in this fight because if he can force unrelenting pressure on Marquez, take distance away from him and not get discouraged in the early stage of this fight then I feel he can win this battle.

Brundage +140

I would consider via decision props also

Total in this fight 1.5Rds. Under -135 and this price is rising….

Jose ‘Chepe’ Mariscal -495 vs. Ricardo Ramos +400 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Chepe attacks adversaries with aggressive forward pressing power striking and he backs his striking up with a solid judo base. He is a simple ‘seek and destroy’ fighter. He trains in Colorado at Team Elevation, so we know his cardio is exemplary, he is 4-0 in the UFC and enters this fight with swelling confidence. Chepe opened this fight as a favorite of -180 and has been bet up to -410.

His opponent is Brazil’s submission specialist Ricardo Ramos who opened a +155 underdog to Mariscal and now finds himself being disregarded as his current price is +350.

Ramos has struggled with fighters that can overpower him, ground him then bully their way into a submission because he has little to no wrestling to compliment his world class BJJ.

Good news for Ramos and fight fans is that Chepe’s no submission slickster by any means, he is a dedicated knock out artist.

8-5 in the UFC, Ramos, a black belt in BJJ, is the taller, younger, longer man in this fight. Those physical assets will work to his favor when this fight is standing. However, it is in Ramos’ best interest to try to eventually receive one of the aggressive, forward rushes that Chepe will unleash toward him, to wrap his neck, grab a single leg or clasp onto an arm. Ramos game will be to use the maniacal striker’s aggression against him which just happens to be the premise behind BJJ.

Can Chepe implode the younger taller more experienced Brazilian with his brazen aggression or will Ramos be able to lure Chepe into a submission of some form?

That is the intrigue of this bout.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -160

Lean Under

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Please see below the link to this week’s Sneak-Teep Podcast for UFC 312

This week the UFC travels around the globe to Macao, China for its Fight Night Macao.

The event’s preliminary action begins at 3am EST Saturday morning so prepare yourselves accordingly fight fans!

There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card but 4 of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC’. I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC so I have not handicapped these four bouts which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four in the 170lbs welterweight division or larger where there the finish rates are higher.

UFC Macao features seven Chinese and one Mongolian athlete who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.

There are but two remaining fight cards in ’24 after this event from Macao. The next is December 7^th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.

Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300 Bantamweight (135lbs) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo, the former Flyweight (125lbs) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135lb. competition but competition from outside the top of the division.

At 125lbs. Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights but as he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135 division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.

My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: he fights like a cornered, wounded, pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators. Yan’s 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,

Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Where Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, Yan at a higher weight class has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% take down defense.

Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bone fide, true test of his bantamweight ability.

In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.

Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever will be the taller, larger, younger (5 years) man in the cage when these two tussle.

Once the fight starts it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo sooner than later into trying to apply his specialty of grappling. It’s then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take Yan down and engage in BJJ he may thrive.

However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.

It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -170

Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Kenan Song +160 Welterweight (170bs)

Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable, he takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.

Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes but he is now forty years old. After a couple of losses Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.

Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday which makes him mighty dangerous.

In Song we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage, he’ll be taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.

Song, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.

Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization which will bring out the best in each combatant.

The total in this fight of 2.5Rds Over -160 indicates a three round competitive battle. With that in mind I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home Country.

Song +160

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC LV99 event whose fight card is populated with eleven bouts but only a few feature world class fighting talent.

Other bouts offer journeyman fighters yearning to graduate from the depths of their perspective weight classes a chance to earn an impressive win and solidify themselves within the organization.

To say that most of the fighters competing on this card Saturday are fighting for their UFC future is reality in my judgement. So now, besides intensity add a sprinkle of pressure onto these athletes.

Last week we rolled to victory with young Clayton Carpenter who earned a submission win, then we watched Brad Tavares as a +170 underdog be awarded a decision loss in his fight against the Iron Turtle.

To date digital profitability stands 23-21 +7.65u

Michel Pereira +110 vs. Anthony Hernandez -130 Middleweight (185lbs) main event

To provide readers with perspective on the dynamically equipped, versatile mixed martial artists that populate the middleweight division of the UFC let me state that these two killers Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked twelve and thirteen respectively!

Pereira, a flamboyant striker mixes his black belts in BJJ and Karate to detrimental results for opponents. He’s huge for the weight class (which always mandates keeping a close eye on his weigh ins) he’s explosive, athletic and sprinkles the unorthodoxy of Capoeira striking into his attacks.

Since an unusually odd loss to Diego Sanchez in 2020 Pereira has won his last eight fights in impressive form albeit against moderately talented UFC competition save for a victory over fellow Brazilian Santiago Ponzinibbio at welterweight a few years back.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Rodriguez we get an opponent for Pereira who is anything but what his nickname indicates.

Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ with a solid wrestling base arrives with the momentum of having won his last five fights. The last three combatants he faced presented a diversity of attack besides representing a step up in level of competition for Hernandez and he reacted by finishing all three men.

Hernandez is a bit more calculated, matriculated, and premeditated in his approach to opponents than Pereira. His athleticism, legwork and wrestling base allow him to quickly transition into dominant positions as soon as any opponent makes the slightest error.

Once the bell for this fight chimes, it will be Pereira taking his pressure striking right to Hernandez and Hernandez will be forced to deal immediately with that forcefulness.

Hernandez must manage this fight into the second round and beyond and provided he is able to withstand early hurricane force from Pereira, he stands a great chance of overcoming Pereira later in this fight by using intelligence, patience, and skill.

Conditioning and fight IQ are the foundational aspects for anyone competing against Pereira and in Fluffy the Brazilian destroyer has drawn as intelligent a fighter as competes in the division as well the whole of the UFC.

Hernandez will need to draw Pereira into his wrestling, mauling range then engulf the brazen Brazilian with his smothering grappling in order to both force the power striker into defending himself as well suck some of the explosivity from the monster by making him grind to get away from the clasp.

I regard Pereira as a front running Hare, he’s more explosive, he’s more powerful but he also expends great deals of energy on his attacks. Foes that can navigate fights into the later stages of three rounds, and this is a five-round fight, can earn success against Pereira as a determined foe and the onset of fatigue usurps the will from the buzzsaw.

Hernandez, the ‘tortoise’ has all the natural ability as well he possesses the fight acumen to navigate this battle into the late second round and beyond. I see maneuvering this fight into the later rounds as mandatory for Fluffy’s chances of winning and I believe he’ll be able to use his mind to conquer Pereira’s matter in this matchup.

Hernandez opened -200 for this fight, he now stands -130 however I regard the opening line as a more accurate depiction of these two men’s skills. I’ll invest in Hernandez -130 with advice to get him now as this price is too low in my judgement and is bound to creep back up.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155 (BOL)

Kyler Phillips -470 vs. Rob Font +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

This fight is such a fitting example of what ‘value’ really means in gambling.

Phillips, a brown belt in BJJ, and a Nikidokai black/red belt is called Matrix because that’s exactly how he moves. He trains with another six or eight world class bantamweight mixed martial artists at the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ where the competition is high and the respect even higher.

Suga Sean O’Malley, Mario Bautista, Marcus McGhee, and Clayton Carpenter are just a few of the world class fighters sharing rounds at the Lab with each other. There, steel is sharpening steel when it comes to these men’s abilities.

Phillips is extremely athletic, he’s quick as a cat and in mixed martial arts weaponry he is as equipped as Mother Russia for he can strike, wrestle, grapple, and gruel all night long.

He’s finally earned his top fifteen stature and with this fight against Font he hopes to solidify his ascent within the bantamweight division, one that’s chock full of killers.

Rob Font is a determined, experienced striker from Massachusetts. He is an exceptional boxer and is complimented by a brown belt in BJJ. Font’s competed at lightweight, featherweight and now bantamweight which at thirty-seven is of note, for those weight cuts to 135lbs can’t be easy for any young fighter let alone a lower weight athlete now pushing forty.

While these men are similar in height and reach it’s the age, the quickness and agility that separate these two in my handicap.

Once this fight begins, Phillip’s movement, athleticism and overall mixed martial arts weaponry will be on display and while he may not be able to finish the proud warrior it’s my take that he wins a one-sided fight if there is no finish.

Now getting to the value in gambling part….

Phillips opened -225 for this fight. I released him last week at that price. Today he is -400/-450 and while this opponent is an advantageous one for him to compete against, the fact remains that this is a fight, anything can happen and Font’s no walk in the park.

I handicap Phillips to be a steal at -225 and a buy all the way to -290 regarding straight bets. I would use him in parlay pieces up to -325 but after that the risk is too high for the competitiveness of this bout.

Last week that the 23-year-old Tatsuro Taira opened -195 and closed -340 or so against number one contender and veteran flyweight Brandon Royval. Royval won the split decision as +250 dog!

In summary, those that obtained Phillips early in this betting cycle hold ‘value’ into this fight based on current pricing. The fact that Phillips is a fine buy at -225 does not in any way, shape, or form make him a worthy consideration at -400 or higher.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -225

Lean over.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day at GambLou.com. Get my final releases there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

9-10 -.62u

NCState +115

NCState/Florida Under 10.5 1 u to earn .91u

Texas AM/Kentucky Under 9.5 1u to earn .91u

check back before the AM game…

35-48   -10.12u

Oil opened +110, now +124

Oil +124 1u