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UFC FN Kansas City Garry vs. Prates: Future Schlock?

After eleven straight fight slates the UFC took a break over the holiday weekend only to line another set of ten fight cards together for our future investment consideration.

This week it is Fight Night Kansas City, Garry vs. Prates, a card with fourteen scheduled bouts consisting of athletes ranging from flyweight women to light heavyweight men.

An international set of gladiators will compete in a large thirty foot octagon, and in front of a full house of midwestern fight fanatics. Only eleven of the combatants on this schedule are from the United States with athletes coming in from all corners of the globe. China Georgia, South Africa, Mexico, Jamaica, and Uganda are represented just to name a few.

One facet of this event most important to understand, is where the few local/regional fighters are situated on this card as they may have some effect on the crowd then of course potentially the judging.

UFC Kansas City prelims begin at 3pm PT with the main slate airing at 6pm PT.

Let’s fight!

Ian Garry -130 vs. Carlos Prates +110 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian phenom Carlos Prates enters this fight with huge momentum and confidence brimming which is why he did not hesitate to take this substantial step up in competition after his original opponent Geoff Neal had to drop out of the fight.

Prates, a member of the gang of destruction that is Brazil’s ‘fighting nerds’ team is a world class Muay Thai striker who also holds a black belt in BJJ.

He is fearless, forward pressing, and ultra-aggressive. Prates has decimated all four of his UFC opponents faced, as well he has faced an improved, more refined adversary in each of those four bouts.

Prates attempts to walk down any opponent to plant feet and throw hammers. One thing he must improve, however, is his propensity to accept a strike as he accepts a slightly higher number of significant strikes per minute than he lands. Prates’ power is profuse, he has become reliant on tagging opponents and when he does, he shuts them down.

Irishman Garry who is now living in Brazil and training with the assassins at Chute Box is as close to a perfect opposite of Prates as we can find stylistically.

A black belt in Judo with improving grappling Garry is as highly athletic as he is brash and verbose. Garry’s strength in fights is to use his deft footwork, fluidity of movement and strike evasion to force opponents into lunging forward to engage, reaching and forcing engagement which has the result of leaving them wide open to Garry’s flash precision counter striking attack.

Garry’s been in with better competition, his experience coupled with his athleticism may simply be too refined and advanced for the forceful approach of this most dangerous pulverizer.

Prates carries momentum into the cage yet despite Garry taking this fight on short notice, I handicap his skills to be just a bit more refined, advanced, and developed for Prates especially understanding that this is a five-round battle.

Garry -125

Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -180

Over -180

Michel Perreira -145 vs. Abus Magomedov +120 Middleweight (185lbs.)

The middleweight division of the UFC is a deep and competitive group where some twenty of its athletes may be legitimately regarded as top fifteen combatants.

Fourteenth ranked and rising up the ranks in furious fashion in Brazilian Michel Pereira. Periera has blossomed as a fighter once he accepted the fact that he was compromising himself too much trying to compete in the lower welterweight division.

Handicapping Pereira, the middleweight mandates that one must wonder how the massive middleweight makes this 185lb division let alone how he ever made the 170-pound limit.

A black belt in BJJ as well as Karate, Pereira prefers to attack opponents immediately and unleash his power through a barrage of fists, elbows, knees, jumps kicks and tricks.

Flamboyant is an understatement for how Pereira fights, and in fact his Wildman approach can sometimes put him in compromising positions. A subtly refined and focused Pereira is expected for this battle as he arrives off a loss to Fluffy Hernandez, one in which he was exposed in his ability to effectively compete for a full five rounds.

Pereira is sure to be looking to rebound off that humiliating last loss.

In Abus Magomedov we have a Russian fighter who will be slightly older than Pereira but two inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. That height/reach advantage plays into his favor when this fight will be standing.

Magomedov’s striking to be honest is more workmanlike and less explosive in nature than is Pereira’s, but he delivers shots straight down the pipe and in classic boxing fashion as opposed to the wildly awkward angles that his maniacal adversary Pereira will hurl at him.

Once this fight enters the second round, we will witness one or both men begin to wane as neither is known for deep cardio ability so conditioning and pace stand to be an important aspect of this fight.

With a victory Pereira regains some momentum he lost to Hernandez in his last bout, but a Magomedov win catapults the Russian up into the middleweight rankings allowing him to threaten the top fifteen.

This is a very important fight in the division.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday midday PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops just after weigh-ins are completed. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: lord ..have mercy

Miami, Fl is the host city for this week’s UFC 314 a PPV event.

This fight card from Miami is scheduled for 13 bouts of which three will be competed at 170 lbs. or above. The larger octagon is in use in Miami and the crowd will be festive, furious, and frenetic.

Early prelim action starts at 3pm PT with preliminary fights dropping at 5pm PT and the main card 7pm PT.

Last week I put up a stinker with both of my releases losing a total of 2.5u bringing this year’s digital results to 7-10 -3.45u

Time to dig in.

Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Diego Lopes +105 Featherweight Championship

Two years ago, Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC and took current featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s fourth ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice! Many including myself, feel that Lopes actually won that fight.

Since that decision loss, Lopes has scorched all five featherweight adversaries leading into this championship opportunity and in each case the level of competition he faced in those opponents increased.

That will be no different this week.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will be the younger man in this title fight by five plus years, he’s six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the former champion.

He employs an aggressive forward-pressing striking attack backed up with brilliant BJJ. Lopes is tough, durable yet and as importantly, he enters brimming with the confidence that comes from destroying his last five opponents. Now he competes for the belt he has always dreamed of capturing.

Alexander Volkanovski is the featherweight division’s most elite champion. However, at thirty-six years of age and coming off of two decisive knock-out losses, many believe that Volkanovski may be on the other side of his prime.

Those losses were to Ilya Topuria and Islam Makhachev, but those two assassins are the two top pound for pound athletes in the UFC currently.

I believe Volkanovski took the second Makhachev fight, the one in which he was finished in, too soon off the heels of the first Makhachev loss, the one in which he shined so brightly.

Then the warrior in him made the first mistake worse in rushing back to face Topuria, his second rush back to competition.

So now, Volkanovski enters this fight with over a year of rest which in this case seems a wise idea.

Once this fight begins, Volkanovski must be measured early when the young Lopes is his most fierce. Navigating the first ten minutes of this fight and forcing the younger less experienced Lopes to use mental and physical energy is foundational to Volkanovski success because in previous fights, Lopes has shown tired as fight extended.

Those that believe Volkanovski is able to execute the same plan against Lopes as he used against Max Holloway in three epic battles will have an easy time picturing how a Volkanovski win will appear, deft movement and combination striking/kicking.

Those that feel Volkanovski’s skills have waned from those past two losses will take the position that he will be unable to execute such a plan against Lopes at this age and after two substantial knockout setbacks.

The key to this confrontation comes down to Volkanovski’s ability to navigate this fight into the third round and perhaps beyond where Lopes has not yet been at this level of competition.

He’ll accomplish this by employing deft footwork with striking quickness/precision all while relying upon his deep championship pedigree.

Volkanovski’s depth of five round championship experience, his cardio, his complete fight arsenal and most especially his nimble footwork together with his depth of five round championship experience provide him advantage over anyone in the division but…he must have those legs.

Volkanovski opened -150 in this fight and is now -125. He was a buy at -150.

Volkanovski -125 or better

with advice to be patient and allow the flow on Lopes to continue, capture Volkanovski at his most advantageous price.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Jean Silva -325 vs. Bryce Mitchell +265 Featherweight (145lbs)

Thirteenth ranked Mitchell is a country boy from Arkansas who has a sturdy wrestling base and is as strong as a country mule. Mitchell is best in fights when he can control the pace by pressing opponents backward then entangling them with his takedown ability and wrestling acumen.

As capable a wrestler as Mitchell is, that’s how uncomfortable and awkward he is as a striker. Though improving on the feet, Mitchell’s striking and strike evasion skills are the reason he sells out to wrestle. Look no further than his loss to Josh Emmett two fight back to realize that on the feet Mitchell is susceptible against any formidable striker.

Jean Silva is not only a capable striker, he may be the scariest fighter in the division currently. He is short, compact, lightning fast and packs obtuse power in his frenetic striking style.

Silva’s not lost since 2018, and he’s finished all four of his UFC opponents. That mentioned, this fight with Mitchell does represent a step up in class of opponent for Silva as well Silva’s not competed against a wrestler of this ability prior, so there is a path of destruction for Silva. That path would be to allow this fight to transition to the canvas.

Silva’s momentum, his youth and his shorter compact physique, which he can emply to keep the taller Mitchell from taking him down, coupled with the threat of his one strike finishing ability force me to regard him as extremely dangerous in this fight.

One last note, for many reasons, the UFC may not be Bryce Mitchell’s biggest fan. They sometimes have a way of cleaning house in their own manner. Mitchell getting this absolute killer, at this time, off that devastating loss to Emmett two fights back seems to be a perfect example of what the organization can do to someone who is ‘on the fringe’ of their graces.

Silva via demolition

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -175

Virna Jandiroba -145 vs. Yan Xiaonan +125 Women’s Strawweight (115lbs)

In this battle Jandiroba, the division’s third ranked fighter who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai striking steps up into the elite of the division.

Jandiroba’s won her last four fights against ‘top’ competition in the division but that competition has not been ‘elite.’ In this fight, she enters into the realm of elite competition against China’s Xiaonan who has recently competed for the title.

Yan was a fighter long, thin, and almost frail when she entered the UFC. However, the UFC Institute in China, Chinese strawweight champion Weili Zhang and Xiaonan’s desire to become a proud Chinese champion together provided the impetus for Xiaonan’s steady transformation, growth and improvement in mixed martial arts.

Xiaonan will have a certain striking advantage when these two are on their feet. She is younger, taller and the more seasoned fighter as well she is the much stronger lady. Xiaonan understands that to earn victory, she’ll need to keep this fight standing.

Her size/strength will be great assets to her as well her past with champion Zhang for while Jandiroba is a cobra when she gets opponents to the mat, her challenge is that her wrestling is not complete enough to be able to take down such a large, structured woman like Xiaonan.

Xiaonan’s power striking, championship experience and take down defense are all advantages in this fight against the Brazilian Jandiroba who is less experienced at this level of the division and is more singular in fighting dimension/expertise.

Jandiroba opened -140 in this fight.

Xiaonan +125

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds Over -180

Weigh ins from Miami are 6am PT so the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop mid-morning PT this Friday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV104 Vettori vs. Dolidze: Bang Bang…out go the lights!

This Saturday’s UFC FN 104 takes place at the UFC’s APEX facility where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans will be in attendance. Preliminary action begins at 1pm PST with the main card dropping at 4pm PST.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts for this event with the preliminary action kicking off at 1pm PST. Four big boi fights which are matchups featuring welterweight fighters or larger populate the card, and the mix of countries. which is always interesting includes (beside the usual Brazil, Russia, US) Congo, Venezuela, South Korea, and Ecuador just to name a few.

Gathering trained combatants from every corner of the world who arrive to battle with every conceivable combination of fight specialties and a focused mentality all sporting diverse physiques is what fascinates me about the UFC. These athletes, all prepared for war are then led into a cage to determine whose fighting method is the greatest is man’s earliest passion …and I must say that it is mine also.

Favorites you ask?

Why yes, this year they’re 51-34-5 or 56.6% which is fourteen plus points lower than what we experienced last year! That’s a big regression but it is early…let’s see if this regression is sustainable as investing in underdogs is becoming fun/profitable again.

Marvin Vettori -155 vs. Roman Dolidze +125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked Dolidze arrives to this rematch without major fight decorations however his mixed martial arts arsenal is forged from Sambo and BJJ which he developed as a youth. Dolidze also won a Grappling FILA world championship.

Dolidze is aggressive and forward pressing in attack. He is strong, determined, durable and experienced. His cardio, once a concern, has evolved as witnessed by his five round decision loss to top ranked Nassourdine Imavov last February.

Five years the older fighter at thirty-six, Doilidze’s remained active as this will be his third fight in eight months as well, he takes this rematch after coming off of two straight wins.

Vettori, thirty-one, is the eighth ranked middleweight. He has dominated the division’s masses but struggles when he competes against the elite middleweights where his forceful, bullying tactics and singularly dimensioned attack are less effective.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see much of what we saw in the first fight between these two except this competition will/should last twenty-five minutes as opposed to fifteen as this is a main event fight.

Should a finish arise, it’s my judgement that Vettori could find a way to ground and pound the Georgian late in this fight should Dolidze struggle with his old foe, cardio.

I regard these two athletes as being in different hierarchies of the middleweight division. Vettori is elite and it’s my judgement that Dolidze is not to that level.

This fight is lines 4.5Rds over -215 so if it’s fireworks, finishes and a frenetic pace you fancy then it may be best to watch the earlier fights on this card.

Vettori -155

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -195 vs. Chidi Njokuani +170 Welterweight co main event

Fireworks!

While grappling, wrestling, and clenching may best define what we expect from the main event, the co main event should award us with two fighters who are characterized by their pure power striking, forceful forward aggression, and flamboyant fighting styles.

Chidi is a lightning fast, explosive power striker who is trained in kickboxing, Muay Thai and has earned a black belt in BJJ. For up to six minutes of competition time, Njokuani exhibits dynamic abilities however after six minutes his effectiveness can wane.

Chidi’s owns a four-inch reach advantage and will sport a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, both great advantages in a fight that remains standing which is expected in this war.

Chidi’s height, reach and straight down the middle striking will provide certain leverage over Elezeu dos Santos especially early in the fight when he is firing fresh.

For the Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos, his approach revolves around staying out of Njokuani’s range early in this fight. How he executes this will be fascinating to determine. Does he try to play the stand-up game long enough to forcefully enter the pocket on the striker or will he come out blitzing from the start and try to engage this monster from inside the pocket when he is fresh?

A flamboyant Capoeira striker with Muay Thai accents Elezeu displays speed, precision, and power with his stand up and it’s this matchup of striking specialties that has fight fans yearning to understand the result of this clash of warrior styles.

In my judgement this fight sets up to be favorable for Njokuani because Zaleski dos Santos must come forward in order to make this fight either striking or grappling.

However, should the Brazilian find inside access to his adversary early in this fight he’ll be in position to sap the slugger of his snap by forcing him to defend.

It’s at this juncture of the fight that we discover if Elezeu can maintain inside position and wage war or if Chidi is going to ‘bang’ ‘bang’ him from range.

Total in this fight is 1.5 Rds. Over -190

This is a fight card that I refer to as ‘due diligence’ cards in that there are many debut fighters as well, athletes with less than three UFC performances under their belts. We have one fight where a journeyman athlete is dropping two weight divisions to battle a debuting fighter!

Because of the obscurity of these athletes and my lack of data on them, I choose to use these fights to learn and often refrain from wagering upon them. This is that card!

Stephanie Luciano -230 vs. San Hughes +200 women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Brazilian Luciano is tall, young, attractive and enters her sophomore fight in the UFC after defeating a woman that she fought to a draw on the Dana White Contender Series. She’s a striker.

Sam Hughes enters her ninth UFC fight 4-5. She comes to the cage with fierce determination, tremendous cardio, and a founded grappling/wrestling base.

Hughes opened +275 so others are seeing what I am reporting on. That Hughes is in a great position to compete Saturday.

Hughes +200 .5u

The ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com is where one finds my releases for each week’s UFC event.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV103 Kape vs. Almabaev: Don’t pull on Superman’s Kape

The UFC is in the midst of an eleven-week run of fight productions, this week they host LV 103 at the APEX in Las Vegas where fans are few and the 25’ smaller octagon will be in use.

This card has twelve scheduled fights. There are but three big boy bouts featured in this smaller cage, a Welterweight fight, a middleweight co main event and a heavyweight tussle which is on the underbelly of this slate.

Some may choose to criticize obscurely populated fight cards such as this, however I choose to tip my hat to the UFC for deftly populating each fight card despite the many last-minute changes, cancellations, and injuries. The UFC offers fight fans ten to fourteen bouts per card, forty-four to forty-six times each year, and never cancel an event.

Last week the Moldovan Hulk Ion Cutelaba, submitted his overmatched Turkish opponent as a +165 underdog. Ion’s quick work allowed us to take a huge bite out of this year’s slow start as digital results now stand: 3-4 -1.60.

Manuel Kape -218 vs. Asu Almabaev +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked Kazakhstani fighter Almabaev arrives to this five round main event in relative short notice for Kape was scheduled to fight top ranked men’s flyweight Brandon Royval.

Almabaev has a solid wrestling base complimented by employment of high volume striking. After entering the UFC from K1 Global then Brave, he’s won all four of his bouts although he has faced modestly talented UFC competition to date.

Manuel Kape is a fighter with immense talent but also an immense ego and an obtuse level of overconfidence.

He’s wildly athletic, strong for the division and when focused stands to be regarded as a top three talent. However, he is a bit of a bully, and he’s struggled with weight because he is too big for the division. Couple that with an ego the size of Texas and we have an athlete that can offer any type of performance, from lethargic and under active to lightning quick employing one strike fight ending power.

Kape, an athlete the UFC seems to like, started boxing at fourteen and developed a fluidity of movement, a quick striking offense backed with precision kicks, and he levies profuse power from all limbs.

Kape has three losses in his UFC career, two early losses to fighters who were more experienced and able than he then and a loss to a high-level wrestler two fights back which will be the blueprint for Almabaev in his attack.

A motivated Kape will be difficult for anyone in the division to best but trying to determine which Kape shows up to this fight is almost folly in my opinion.

Kape fights a competitor that has the wrestling/grappling tools to execute exactly what those adversaries in Kape’s three losses did. Almabaev could well be a live underdog in this fight.

Kape opened -250 and is currently -235 with the total lined 3.5Rds Over -200 after opening -150 and it’s rising. We’ll likely see 4.5 as the total by the time mid-week rolls up.

No determination can be made on this fight until weigh-ins if at all, but I hold interest in Almabaev should Kape come in late and heavy.

Julian Marquez -170 vs. Cody Brundage +140 Middleweight co main event 

Two highly desperate fighters compete in the co main event on Saturday.

With a win, one athlete has the chance to solidify standing in the UFC middleweight division, but a loss more than likely puts the loser on the cutting board as both of these backed up battlers enter with this brawl with dubious past performances.

In Marquez we have a power striker who is tough, durable, and willing to engage. Marquez will own height and power advantages over his opponent Saturday but the fact that he is now thirty-four and coming into this fight off of three straight early round finishes is troubling. He must thwart takedowns, keep his opponent standing and be able to expend high energy for fifteen minutes, all of which Marquez has struggled to do previously.

His opponent Cody Brundage has had his own set of futile early career UFC performances, yet it was during a dominant loss, to Bo Nickal where we saw unrelenting forward pressing aggression, wrestling pop and striking ability from Brundage let alone determination which is something he has struggled with in previous fights.

Brundage actually performed his best against a dominant future star in the organization. Since that Nickal fight Brundage had a semi competitive bout against a power striking middleweight in Abdul Rakak Alhassan that was declared a no contest back in July.

So, in this co main event we have two desperate fighters, one, Marquez, a power striker with limited cardio who can wilt under the pressure of any forward pressing wrestler/grappler and the other Brundage, the wrestler who has been finished by strikes twice in his career and can wilt under opposing pressure when a bully opponent flushes him on the face with fists.

In my judgement this bout comes down to cardio and deep seeded guts/grit/heart. In Brundage I have the younger athlete with cardio I know I can trust. He must ensure that he does not get touched early in this fight because if he can force unrelenting pressure on Marquez, take distance away from him and not get discouraged in the early stage of this fight then I feel he can win this battle.

Brundage +140

I would consider via decision props also

Total in this fight 1.5Rds. Under -135 and this price is rising….

Jose ‘Chepe’ Mariscal -495 vs. Ricardo Ramos +400 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Chepe attacks adversaries with aggressive forward pressing power striking and he backs his striking up with a solid judo base. He is a simple ‘seek and destroy’ fighter. He trains in Colorado at Team Elevation, so we know his cardio is exemplary, he is 4-0 in the UFC and enters this fight with swelling confidence. Chepe opened this fight as a favorite of -180 and has been bet up to -410.

His opponent is Brazil’s submission specialist Ricardo Ramos who opened a +155 underdog to Mariscal and now finds himself being disregarded as his current price is +350.

Ramos has struggled with fighters that can overpower him, ground him then bully their way into a submission because he has little to no wrestling to compliment his world class BJJ.

Good news for Ramos and fight fans is that Chepe’s no submission slickster by any means, he is a dedicated knock out artist.

8-5 in the UFC, Ramos, a black belt in BJJ, is the taller, younger, longer man in this fight. Those physical assets will work to his favor when this fight is standing. However, it is in Ramos’ best interest to try to eventually receive one of the aggressive, forward rushes that Chepe will unleash toward him, to wrap his neck, grab a single leg or clasp onto an arm. Ramos game will be to use the maniacal striker’s aggression against him which just happens to be the premise behind BJJ.

Can Chepe implode the younger taller more experienced Brazilian with his brazen aggression or will Ramos be able to lure Chepe into a submission of some form?

That is the intrigue of this bout.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -160

Lean Under

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV103 Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Gorilla in the fist

This week the UFC returns to its APEX center in Las Vegas, NV. where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans are able to attend. Prelims kick off at 1pm PT and the main card starts at 4pm PT.

Of the thirteen scheduled fights, five take place at welterweight or heavier as well fourteen US athletes populate the card with another nine from Brazil.

Last year I moaned incessantly about the 70.5% rate of favorites winning in the UFC. That number has regressed quite aggressively so far in 2025 as favorites stand 27-19-1 or 57.4%.

I dropped two bets last week on dismal dogs but one, Champion Weili Zhang who closed +135 dominated her fight against a singularly dimensioned and overmatched Tatian Suarez.

Digital results stand 2-4 -3.15 on the year.

Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs. Jarod Cannonier +165 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Cannonier is the seventh ranked middleweight in the division. He’s competed from heavyweight to middleweight throughout his illustrious career and at forty years of age enters a most pivotal fight as his top ten standing lies in jeopardy with a loss here.

Cannonier’s defeated the elite of the division prior to his last two fights. Those losses, to Ciao Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov respectively showed Cannonier to be a true warrior if not an undersized forty-year-old competing against larger, faster, more powerful adversaries.

Saturday, he takes the cage against another highly skilled and dangerous mixed martial artist. This will be Cannoniers the third competition and second main event in eight months! Three in eight is highly active for a thirty-year-old middleweight let alone one that is forty.

Rodrigues, an eight-time amateur BJJ champion in Brazil, arrives to this fight winner of his last three however Rodrigues has not competed against the elite of the division as has his opponent, so this represents a step up in competition for certain.

Rodrigues is a sculpted specimen of a man who carries an abundance of power in any hammer he throws whether elbow, knee, or fist.

‘Robocop’ as Rodrigues is called will hulk over Cannonier. He’s three inches the taller fighter, he will grossly outweigh Cannonier come fight night and he’s the younger man by eight years.

When this fight begins, it will be a battle between the speed, legwork and fight IQ of Cannonier and the methodical, deliberate, forward pressing pressure applied by the aggressive Robocop.

Cannonier’s recent activity (in fact over activity) against elite competition cannot be regarded as advantageous. In fact, his accepting these top-level fights against younger ascending athletes with only weeks in between to recover/recharge is concerning, it tells me he is yearning to earn as opposed to grinding for a title?

Rodrigues -190

Youssef Zalal -380 vs. Calvin Kattar +310 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main

Like the main event this fight presents a contract of styles. In one corner we have a highly skilled, lightning fast, athletic, mixed martial artist in Youssef Zalal. He fights against a large, powerful, forward pressing boxer/striker in Cal Kattar.

Kattar’s last three fights have been against the top ranked fighters in the division. Sterling, Emmett and Allen represent a murders row of elite competition. Kattar went to decision with both Sterling and Allen which is impressive in itself. He was injured in the other fight.

Kattar’s advantages will be his size, experience and power striking.

Zalal in 2022, was released from his first stint in the UFC because he was just an ordinary fighter on a very good day and a poor one on all others.

He spent the next couple of years maturing and realizing that it is his fighting skill not his intellect which would allow him to realize financial success.

By the time Zalal worked his way back into the UFC last March he was a completely different man emotionally and physically. Since his return he’s dominated his last three opponents while stepping up in level of opponent for each bout.

With this fight, Zalal enters the cage in peak form as a fighter against a guy in Kattar who is thirty-six and focused on retaining his standing within the division as opposed to tearing through it.

Zalal’s focus manifested with his speed, footwork and well-rounded fighting ability present too much for a more deliberate yet durable athlete in Kattar as I handicap this fight.

The big question is whether Zalal has a chance to finish the tough Bostonian.

Total in this fight; 2.5Rds Over -240

Jose Delgado -265 vs. Conor Matthews +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Matthews, thirty-two, enters this fight 0-1 in the UFC and hungry to solidify his position in the organization. He’s not overly athletic nor has he competed against high level competition which is what he is going to get in this fight.

Delgado is a young gun from Phoenix who will come into this fight with a lethal striking plan backed up by world class wrestling/grappling. Delgado will be the younger man by six years, the taller fighter by three inches and he’ll hold a reach advantage all of which together add to advantage when these two are standing and striking.

Delgado is just another of the highly talented lighter weight professional athletes training at Phoenix MMALab. He is in a position to shine Saturday as this fight has been placed on the main card.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -200

I’ll release a parlay this week.

Delgado -265/Rodrigues -190 parlay: 1u returns 1.10u

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for each week’s UFC cards. Catch it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

2025 ‘Bout Business Podcast

The 2025 UFC calendar year kicks off January 11th with Las Vegas 101 from its APEX center. Current Members may update their subscription service and any new potential subscribers may simply tap the “Bout Business” tab at the top of this webpage to discover the specifics. Potential members may also e mail me directly at Lou@GambLou.com for further communication or data on my previous year’s results…

I’ll be posting a full business report for all the sports I invest in mid-December.

Enjoy the final quarter of the football season and Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC FN Macao Yan vs. Figueiredo: Yan to Yan combat

This week the UFC travels around the globe to Macao, China for its Fight Night Macao.

The event’s preliminary action begins at 3am EST Saturday morning so prepare yourselves accordingly fight fans!

There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card but 4 of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC’. I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC so I have not handicapped these four bouts which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four in the 170lbs welterweight division or larger where there the finish rates are higher.

UFC Macao features seven Chinese and one Mongolian athlete who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.

There are but two remaining fight cards in ’24 after this event from Macao. The next is December 7th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.

Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300 Bantamweight (135lbs) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo, the former Flyweight (125lbs) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135lb. competition but competition from outside the top of the division.

At 125lbs. Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights but as he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135 division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.

My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: he fights like a cornered, wounded, pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators. Yan’s 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,

Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Where Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, Yan at a higher weight class has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% take down defense.

Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bone fide, true test of his bantamweight ability.

In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.

Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever will be the taller, larger, younger (5 years) man in the cage when these two tussle.

Once the fight starts it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo sooner than later into trying to apply his specialty of grappling. It’s then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take Yan down and engage in BJJ he may thrive.

However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.

It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -170

Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Kenan Song +160 Welterweight (170bs)

Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable, he takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.

Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes but he is now forty years old. After a couple of losses Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.

Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday which makes him mighty dangerous.

In Song we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage, he’ll be taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.

Song, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.

Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization which will bring out the best in each combatant.

The total in this fight of 2.5Rds Over -160 indicates a three round competitive battle. With that in mind I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home Country.

Song +160

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV99 Pereira vs. Hernandez: A boy named Su

The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC LV99 event whose fight card is populated with eleven bouts but only a few feature world class fighting talent.

Other bouts offer journeyman fighters yearning to graduate from the depths of their perspective weight classes a chance to earn an impressive win and solidify themselves within the organization.

To say that most of the fighters competing on this card Saturday are fighting for their UFC future is reality in my judgement. So now, besides intensity add a sprinkle of pressure onto these athletes.

Last week we rolled to victory with young Clayton Carpenter who earned a submission win, then we watched Brad Tavares as a +170 underdog be awarded a decision loss in his fight against the Iron Turtle.

To date digital profitability stands 23-21 +7.65u

Michel Pereira +110 vs. Anthony Hernandez -130 Middleweight (185lbs) main event

To provide readers with perspective on the dynamically equipped, versatile mixed martial artists that populate the middleweight division of the UFC let me state that these two killers Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked twelve and thirteen respectively!

Pereira, a flamboyant striker mixes his black belts in BJJ and Karate to detrimental results for opponents. He’s huge for the weight class (which always mandates keeping a close eye on his weigh ins) he’s explosive, athletic and sprinkles the unorthodoxy of Capoeira striking into his attacks.

Since an unusually odd loss to Diego Sanchez in 2020 Pereira has won his last eight fights in impressive form albeit against moderately talented UFC competition save for a victory over fellow Brazilian Santiago Ponzinibbio at welterweight a few years back.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Rodriguez we get an opponent for Pereira who is anything but what his nickname indicates.

Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ with a solid wrestling base arrives with the momentum of having won his last five fights. The last three combatants he faced presented a diversity of attack besides representing a step up in level of competition for Hernandez and he reacted by finishing all three men.

Hernandez is a bit more calculated, matriculated, and premeditated in his approach to opponents than Pereira. His athleticism, legwork and wrestling base allow him to quickly transition into dominant positions as soon as any opponent makes the slightest error.

Once the bell for this fight chimes, it will be Pereira taking his pressure striking right to Hernandez and Hernandez will be forced to deal immediately with that forcefulness.

Hernandez must manage this fight into the second round and beyond and provided he is able to withstand early hurricane force from Pereira, he stands a great chance of overcoming Pereira later in this fight by using intelligence, patience, and skill.

Conditioning and fight IQ are the foundational aspects for anyone competing against Pereira and in Fluffy the Brazilian destroyer has drawn as intelligent a fighter as competes in the division as well the whole of the UFC.

Hernandez will need to draw Pereira into his wrestling, mauling range then engulf the brazen Brazilian with his smothering grappling in order to both force the power striker into defending himself as well suck some of the explosivity from the monster by making him grind to get away from the clasp.

I regard Pereira as a front running Hare, he’s more explosive, he’s more powerful but he also expends great deals of energy on his attacks. Foes that can navigate fights into the later stages of three rounds, and this is a five-round fight, can earn success against Pereira as a determined foe and the onset of fatigue usurps the will from the buzzsaw.

Hernandez, the ‘tortoise’ has all the natural ability as well he possesses the fight acumen to navigate this battle into the late second round and beyond. I see maneuvering this fight into the later rounds as mandatory for Fluffy’s chances of winning and I believe he’ll be able to use his mind to conquer Pereira’s matter in this matchup.

Hernandez opened -200 for this fight, he now stands -130 however I regard the opening line as a more accurate depiction of these two men’s skills. I’ll invest in Hernandez -130 with advice to get him now as this price is too low in my judgement and is bound to creep back up.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155 (BOL)

Kyler Phillips -470 vs. Rob Font +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

This fight is such a fitting example of what ‘value’ really means in gambling.

Phillips, a brown belt in BJJ, and a Nikidokai black/red belt is called Matrix because that’s exactly how he moves. He trains with another six or eight world class bantamweight mixed martial artists at the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ where the competition is high and the respect even higher.

Suga Sean O’Malley, Mario Bautista, Marcus McGhee, and Clayton Carpenter are just a few of the world class fighters sharing rounds at the Lab with each other. There, steel is sharpening steel when it comes to these men’s abilities.

Phillips is extremely athletic, he’s quick as a cat and in mixed martial arts weaponry he is as equipped as Mother Russia for he can strike, wrestle, grapple, and gruel all night long.

He’s finally earned his top fifteen stature and with this fight against Font he hopes to solidify his ascent within the bantamweight division, one that’s chock full of killers.

Rob Font is a determined, experienced striker from Massachusetts. He is an exceptional boxer and is complimented by a brown belt in BJJ. Font’s competed at lightweight, featherweight and now bantamweight which at thirty-seven is of note, for those weight cuts to 135lbs can’t be easy for any young fighter let alone a lower weight athlete now pushing forty.

While these men are similar in height and reach it’s the age, the quickness and agility that separate these two in my handicap.

Once this fight begins, Phillip’s movement, athleticism and overall mixed martial arts weaponry will be on display and while he may not be able to finish the proud warrior it’s my take that he wins a one-sided fight if there is no finish.

Now getting to the value in gambling part….

Phillips opened -225 for this fight. I released him last week at that price. Today he is -400/-450 and while this opponent is an advantageous one for him to compete against, the fact remains that this is a fight, anything can happen and Font’s no walk in the park.

I handicap Phillips to be a steal at -225 and a buy all the way to -290 regarding straight bets. I would use him in parlay pieces up to -325 but after that the risk is too high for the competitiveness of this bout.

Last week that the 23-year-old Tatsuro Taira opened -195 and closed -340 or so against number one contender and veteran flyweight Brandon Royval. Royval won the split decision as +250 dog!

In summary, those that obtained Phillips early in this betting cycle hold ‘value’ into this fight based on current pricing. The fact that Phillips is a fine buy at -225 does not in any way, shape, or form make him a worthy consideration at -400 or higher.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -225

Lean over.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day at GambLou.com. Get my final releases there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV96 Cannonier vs. Borralho: Undeterred Nerd?

The APEX in Las Vegas with its smaller octagon hosts this week’s UFC LV96. On this week’s card are two TUF final bouts which bring the total fights on the card to eleven.

Last week underdogs finally raised their heads and realized a 5-6-1 result which knocks favorites winning percentage this year to 66.7% which is still extremely high.

Let’s hope what we saw last week will not be such a rarity as we move into the last half of the 2024 UFC fighting calendar.

Digital results stand 21-16 +10.28u on the heels of King O’Neill’s (+145) victory.

Ciao Borralho -205 vs. Jared Cannonier +175 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

In fifth ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier we have an athlete focused on a run at a title. Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight and now middleweight is now forty years of age and though he usually competes like a man many years younger, in his last effort in June he did not.

Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then champion Israel Adesanya and his last outing, the aforementioned clunker against France’s Nassourdine Imavov.

At middleweight Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete yet untested.

What I concern myself with is his IMMEDIATE desire to earn another title opportunity as opposed to waiting a few months to recharge. He may feel like his last fight was out of the ordinary or he could be rushing back in a touch of haste because he understands the odds of forty-year-old men competing in this game against skilled men close to a decade younger.

Cannonier coming off a TKO against Imavov just seven weeks ago compounds my skepticism.

This is a foundational fight for Cannonier and his future in the top five of this most competitive division.

In twelfth ranked Brazilian Borralho, we have the poster boy for his team which called the ‘fighting nerds.’

Borralho wears glasses and looks to be more valedictorian than middleweight challenger until he steps into an octagon.

He and team wear crooked glasses that tote white tape on the hinge to help them ‘look the part’ but sgangly, it to say that though these young athletes may look goofy, awkward, gangly and odd, please understand that each one is technically versed in their own world class dialect of BJJ and the martial arts.

In the cage Borralho is an elite talent. He is lightning fast; he has solid wrestling/grappling acumen to compliment his highly intricate athleticism and BJJ aptitude.

Cannonier is the man in this fight with the advantage in size (unusual) and experience. He’s been in against killers from three different UFC divisions. Primarily a boxing/kickboxing threat, Cannonier has also developed a grappling game though we’ve seen little of it in his past fights.

That may well change Saturday for it’s my belief that Borralho will force Cannonier into engagements that will test Cannonier’s grappling, take down defense and submission guard.

Key factors for me in this fight are Cannonier’s age, the attrition his body has taken from an extensive career in martial arts spanning three different weight classes and his desperation to get one more shot at the middleweight title.

Now coming into such a critical fight off of a near knock-out loss just two months ago has me wondering what the rush was for Cannonier to get back into the cage so fast and against this type of elite opponent.

We understand that fighters at least 9 years younger than their opponents have a near 70% rate of winning in the UFC. That coupled with the mixed martial arts weaponry of Ciao may make it a long night for Cannonier in the APEX Saturday if Cannonier is unable to back Borralho up and keep this fight upright.

In Saturday’s main event we’ll witness two world class 185-pound athletes contend for Cannoniers fifth ranked position in the division.

Total in this fight: 3.5 rds. Over -175

Michael Morales -600 vs. Neil Magny +470 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Last week I broke down a fight where novice Brazilian razor blade Carlos Prates fought wily veteran Li Jingliang of China. The gist of the write-up was centered around the dynamic speed, ferocity, precision striking/kicking and evasive defensive abilities of the YOUNGER Prates and how those abilities matched up against a methodical, grizzled, wily, durable, tough but aged veteran of the sport of MMA who had never been stopped prior.

Prates annihilated Jingliang. He was the first one to finish the proud Chinese warrior in the late second round of their fight.

It is unfortunate that thirty-seven-year-old Neil Magny, a long, tall, grizzled veteran of more than thirty UFC competitions would draw a more favorable matchup than having to face one of the most violent mixed martial artists in the organization in twenty-five-year-old Morales.

Magny arrives to this tussle off a nice upset win over Canada’s MIke Mallot this past January in a fight he was also totally disrespected in as he closed close to a +300 underdog so at least Magny is used to the treatment.

Magny’s a superior grappler whose long, tall frame sets him up with excellent submission abilities as well that height/reach advantage and his fluidity of movement on the feet is helpful when fights remain standing.

The issue, however, is that Magny is not fast or overly durable and while he is crafty, beguiling and has an exceedingly high IQ in the octagon he is also in the twilight of a lengthy career.

The incoming breed of young hungry and well balanced mixed martial artists are salivating to be matched up with these wise but aged UFC ambassadors in order to club them into unconsciousness then walk away with their position within the division.

I’ve said before, the fight game is one tough pursuit.

Morales, now twenty-five, is young, fast, powerful, explosive and a threat to finish any fight wherever said fight may go. His level of competition faced, and lack of experience needs cultivation and this fight with Magny is his first true test.

Magny will have to discover a way to use his experience and fighting acumen to perplex Morales, confound him with evasive movement/angles and keep him at the end of his strikes and kicks.

Magny cannot allow himself to be caught competing in any flat-footed striking encounters. He can’t allow Morales any ‘in pocket’ opportunities for a wide stanched power shot heaving because Morales is a fighter that can end any athlete’s night with one power blast.

In my estimation, what the UFC is doing to this fight ambassador is similar to what they did to Li Jingliang last week in putting him in with a foe he is unlikely to be able to compete effectively against.

UFC fans understand that in this realm of mixed martial arts, the fittest survive and there is little way to sidestep tomorrow’s future stars like this gifted newcomer Morales.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -175

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -185 vs. Josiane Nunes +160 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs)

Portugal’s Cavalcanti arrives in Perth ready for her sophomore UFC fight but in this matchup her foe is considerably more talented than the fighter she faced in her debut.

Cavalcanti, primarily a striker looks the part for sure, she’s 5’8” which will provide her a six-inch height advantage in this bout. She also holds a four-year youth advantage to go with her four-inch reach advantage.

Cavalcanti will want to keep this fight at distance and standing for her most advantageous outcome.

In Nunes we have a short 5’2” hand grenade. The Brazilian is also a power striker with an emphasis on power.

Despite the fact that she is tremendously undersized physically, opponents find out immediately that when fighting Nunes, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”

In this fight Nunes has an edge in fight experience and has been in with the more able set of opponents as well she beat the only UFC level fighter that Cavalcanti beat previously Zarah Fairn.

The betting market has taken Cavalcanti from -110 at open to the current -185 and that must be based on her size and some ‘Nunes fade’ as there is nothing other than those aspects to this fight that make me feel Cavalcanti has the advantage in this fight.

Nunes +160

Nunes decision should also come at a large plus price once released.

Don’t be afraid to add a touch of investment there especially with the total 2.5Rds. Over -260!

Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast is available at GambLou.com. Catch all of my official releases there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!