Money Morning: Account or profit will never amount!

This week profit was derived from the UFC. In fact, the UFC is the sole sport where one is able to bet over the course of the whole fiscal year.

While most handicappers have their ‘seasons’ we chasing UFC profitability go from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or as you kids like to say, 24/7/365.

This past week I realized a 2-2 + .50u result WITH the Prado -115 winner being tied to Tom Aspinall +128 in next week’s event from the O2 arena in London, England.

To date ‘Bout Business Podcast:  58-53 +18.06u 16%ROI (+123)

This week I’m preparing two NFL teams per day for the upcoming NFL season beside the normal workload I undertake for the UFC. Success in both the NFL and the UFC as well all the sports I work comes from tireless due diligence.

I do my own work and I post my actual results. Few do either!

My NFL consulting is not for everyone in fact it is for the very few but if you have real ambitions of realizing bottom line profitability in the NFL then I would urge you to hit the ‘NFL Consulting’ tab at the top of this page.

Enjoy the week.

UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Bueno Silva: Devil wears Prado

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is available! Hit the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then go directly tot he link of the podcast.

 

 

Last week at UFC 290, favorites ran 7-6 pushing their rate of success this year to a ten year low of 61.1% after finishing last year at a ten year high of just over 67%. *

My release last week of Volkanovski ITD to Moreno was unsuccessful as Moreno lost a tight split decision to Alexandre Pantoja.

Profitability this year stands 11-10 +2.15

This week we march towards the third of five straight events for the UFC in July with this Fight Night event from their APEX Center before traveling overseas to London for next week’s production.

Holly Holm -155 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +135 Women’s bantamweight (135lbs.) main even

The bantamweight division once owned and operated by former champion Amada Nunes is currently without a titleholder.

This Holm vs. Bueno Silva fight will go a long way in clarifying at least the winner of this bout’s claim as being a legitimately regarded a top three talent in the division.

Bueno Silva’s ranked tenth in the division and arrives here after winning three straight fights against just better than nominal talent after she was defeated four fights back by number two ranked Marian Fiorot in a 125lb. flyweight fight.

Bueno Silva, a purple belt in BJJ is well more effective and efficient an athlete at 135lbs. because she now possesses the energy to fight ferociously for fifteen minutes but she’s in against an athlete in Holm that’s competed at 145lbs. prior so Bueno Silva will have to overcome some Holm size in this tussle.

When on her game Bueno Silva’s an aggressive forward pressing fighter who will look to engage Holm first, then do the difficult by trying to press her backwards and into the fence then attempt to transport her to the floor for a flogging.

In this bout Bueno Silva will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Holly though it’s Bueno Silva who will be the younger athlete by a decade.

Holly Holm, ‘the preacher’s daughter’ is a grizzled veteran of the UFC. Versed as a blue belt in BJJ she’s also fluent in kickboxing and boxing. 8-6 in the UFC with a championship title victory over one Ronda Rousey some years ago are just a few of the highlights from Holm’s decorated career.

Once the bell rings for the start of this bout I’ll look to see how long it takes Buena Silva to penetrate the distance/spacing control of Holm for Holm wants to utilize movement to create the distance, space she requires in order to piece-up the incoming aggressor.

Bueno Silva on the other hand needs to make this fight an elbow to eyebrow brawl. She needs to immediately engage Holm, bully her and turn this into a grimy, ugly, clasping maul.

Engaged, pressed into the cage or rolling on the mat are where Bueno Silva must take this bout. By all means she needs to avoid allowing this competition to become a stand-up kickboxing match for she’s poorly equipped to compete with the more experienced, cagey, refined kickboxer Holly Holm there.

This is a substantial step up for Bueno Silva but one I believe she may be ready for.

While Holly Holm must be regarded as an elite threat in the division and a rightful favorite in this fight, she is now forty-one and just as unable to deal with Bueno Silva’s grappling should this fight hit the floor as Bueno Silva is competing at range against Holm.

Which athlete will force their fight upon the other?

Holm opened -175. She is now -165

Total in this bout 4.5 over -195

Despite this being in the smaller 25’ cage at the APEX, these 135ers will have plenty of room to maneuver so cage size does not apply to this bout as much as it does for the larger bodied athletes.

Nazim Sadykov -150 vs. Terrance McKinney +125 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Sadykov arrives from the white-hot Longo and Weidman MMA camp in New York so we know this kid has a solid work ethic, can wrestle/grapple, is fit to fight for ten rounds and is tough as the rest of those assassins in that gym.

In McKinney we get a fighter who will have more UFC experience in this spot, he’ll be the younger man who utilizes a switch stance and has a four-inch reach advantage.

Sadykov will look to clasp and fight McKinney up tight and in close and McKinney must use his experience, his athleticism and he must also use form fight IQ because if McKinney is not prepared to fight for a full fifteen against this frantic beast he’ll be submitted.

If McKinney can effectively pace himself and keep the less savvy fighter on the outside of his strikes, he could get the young man from Azerbaijan frustrated and then this fight swings to McKinney’s favor as the minutes wear on.

However, Sadykov’s single point of focus will be to force McKinney backwards and keep him defending takedowns as this will force McKinney into expending energy early so Sadykov can take manage control of this fight late.

McKinney’s wrestling chops seem to be getting overlooked in this matchup a bit. McKinney’s wrestling is on par with Sadykov’s. I believe McKinney’s cage experience as well the fact he’s bouncing off a poor performance in his last fight have him matched favorably in this bout.

McKinney opened -145 in this bout and now he’s +115. I believe the market has this one incorrect.

McKinney +125*

*This is a buy now

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -185

McKinney ITD numbers will be released later this week and I do have some interest there.

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day. Get it anywhere you get your podcasts.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.

*I’ve been tracking UFC results for just over a decade now.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Money Morning: Accounting

I publicize results regularly for business purposes of course but also because so few do. They’re simply unable derive profit from their wagering so early on I thought I’d let my profitability be public knowledge in order to be able to offer a voice when it comes to Profitable Sports Gaming.

In fact, I’d like readers to know that here is where you may come to peruse articles and offerings all designed to contribute to your growth and development as a profitable gambler.

Last week in the UFC 290 card I realized a 3-2 +2.10u result.

To date in 2023 the ‘Bout Business Podcast stands: 56-51 +17.46u 16% ROI (+122)

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC event which is some 44-47 weeks per year!

You may access GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast simply by hitting the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage. You’ll be provided a direct link to the broadcast.

I have exciting offerings as we approach the fall so please keep this page bookmarked, if you have any questions or issues: Lou@GambLou.com

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Memorial Day 2023

Special Note: College World Series Regional releases by Friday June 2! Hit the CWS tab for more information!

 

Thank You to all Former, Current or soon to be Veterans!

We’re able to do what we do because of your unselfishness. You are all true heroes!

God Bless you all

Campbell conference: Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars

48-38 +22.39u 32% ROI

Las Vegas is sixty minutes away from seriously jeopardizing their Campbell conference title hopes.

If Dallas can manage to execute a ‘thief in the night’ victory in sin city then they must be regarded as dangerous as hell for the Campbell Cup. Dallas taking this series to six or seven is a real Knightmare for Las Vegas so look for an immediate, strong forceful push from the Knights as soon as they drop the puck.

Dallas opened +115 and I see +130/+135 which system says is a buy

Dallas +135 .6u

Campbell Conference consternation

Tonight, we have game 4 of the Stars and Knights. Las Vegas has systematically disassembled the Dallas Stars, Jamie Benn’s hit on Golden Knight Mark Stone coupled with the classlessness of the Dallas fans tossing debris onto the ice was horrifying. Those cowpokes in Texas ought to take a few lessons in manners.

Meanwhile their team is cooked and their season over…..after tonight that is.

Dallas opened -125 and without that bitch Benn, they’ll have to play a complete 60 minutes of hockey in order to have any chance at taking this back to Las Vegas.

Jake Oettinger may never recover from the complete meltdown he incurred throughout the duration of this series and for him I do feel poorly but for the hockey fans in Dallas I am tickled the Stars have been shot down.

On the business side, I have 3 units of Dallas Futures which will be debited from my balance as soon as they are sent packing. I also have a net +1.5 units coming from the Knights +1.5 games prop made earlier in the series resulting in a net loss of 1.5u.

That accounting will be made as soon as this series is over.

The opening for tonight’s game was Stars -125 and what I make as over reaction to the loss of that butthead Benn translates into a little advantage for the home team who by the way bookmakers KNEW would be without the captain.

Stars -104

Either way the Stanley Cup Final begins Saturday, June 3 and I’ll be all over it.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Wales Conference: Florida vs. Carolina

No doubt Florida looks and feels like the real deal but let me caution puckheads that we must be wary of time off, not necessarily in this series but between this one and the Cup final.

Too much rest sounds impossible, it actually sounds desirable, but an imbalance of rest mostly means loss of mojo, sluggish starts and heavy legs EARLY IN A SERIES.

At least if the Panthers are going to win the Wales quickly then they could be in fortunate position because the Knights may acquiesce and do the same against a Dallas team that lost its composure and Campbell Cup with Benn’s bush league cross-check attack on Mark Stone in that last game.

At the end of the day, an equal amount of rest for both teams is desired but not more than 3-4 days unless we want the quality of the hockey to suffer a bit out the gate.

As it is Florida will come a slight underdog in the Final series should they and the Knights meet.

Puck Profitability 2023: 46-36 +21.54 33% ROI

Tonight: We’ve had success with the under in this series but all good thing come to an eventual end.

In Game 1, the total closed 5.5 -130 Over and the game went under the total, Game 2 the total was 5.5 -125 Over and the game went Under, in the last game, Game 3, the total was 5.5 -110 and the result was again an easy Under.

For game 4 the ‘Makers did their part and hung an opening 5.5 Pick-em and the hoards have flocked in to bet the under to current pricing: 5.5 Under -130/-135.

Tonight’s positions: Prop parlay: Series total games, how about a bomb!

Carolina/Florida 6 games +550 to Dallas/Las Vegas 5 games +220; 20/1  .3u

Straight wager:

Carolina/Florida Over 5.5 +115 1u

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Dallas Stars vs. Las Vegas Golden Knights

Last evening in the Wales, I realized a 1-2 result with the loss of .55u.

The Canes look whipped and Florida looks formidable. How about the Matthew Tkachuk Conn Smythe ticket!

As I handicap this Campbell Final, I can’t help believe that the handicap of the Stars was an accurate one. What was missed was the handicap on Jake Oettinger. Thus far in this Campbell playoff season, the only fail on par with that of the Edmonton Oilers is Oettinger’s lack of dynamic for the Stars.

Tonight, there’s home crowd, expectation and heavy betting on the side of the Stars.

The Golden Knight opened +115 and are now +140 and rising…

Road dung

Knights +140

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Wales Final game 3 Carolina at Florida

Welcome puckheads, in both the Wales and Campbell conference tourney’s we have teams a with 2-0 series leads. Tonight, the Panthers return home with a 2-0 lead over the ‘Canes who have had well more playoff success at home than on the road.

In tonight’s most important tilt, the Hurricanes aspire to be the ninth team in NHL history and second in as many years to win a best-of-seven Conference Finals/Semifinals series after dropping each of the first two games. A tall task but an impossible one?

Betting lines for this contest have been unchanged really for the past day or so which means we’ll have to earn our profit tonight!

My feelings are that Carolina must win this game if they have any ambition of realizing each man’s dreams by hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup this year. We’ll get a desperate, focused effort from Brind ‘Amour’s bunch tonight.

I believe if we were to get a ‘Cane game, then that game tends to be an ‘under’ game. I see little chance Carolina can go into Florida and win a back n forth shootout style of hockey hoedown rather they need to pen the Panthers.

Hurricane’s -105

Hurricanes -1.5 +220 .5u

Interesting or a tell that that the Panthers -1.5 is -230 and longer odds than the Canes?!

Under 5.5 -105

“when they said sit down, I stood up”

Bruce Springsteen Growin up

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Money Morning May 22: Profitability report

Good Day

Except for NFL season, Mondays are for weekly accounting.

Just as any business must have their finger on the pulse of their operation so too does Profitable Sports Gaming need to operate as a living functioning profit making entity.

Now there are hoards that gamble and don’t account and for those players we have nothing but respect because I view betting for recreation as one thing…..

What I do here is quite another.

In the UFC after this past week’s 3-2 + .15u result:

41-37 +11.67u 15% ROI

In the Tournament of Passion:

44-34 +20.69u 33% ROI

These NHL numbers are staggering, my results in the Stanley Cup Tourney over the course of the last 45 years have been proudly profitable. That said, even in 2012 When Jonathan Quick took me to Cup heaven as a 25/1 investor in the LA Kings, I have not realized the consistency enjoyed to date.

We’re currently mid-round in Wales and Campbell pursuits so there’s much work remaining to be done.

It’s Business.

Tonight, there’s passion so I’ll be back later to discuss any releases.

The UFC takes a rare week off which is welcome.

I’ll be fresh and ready to fire for the June 3 UFC event headlined by Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi from the UFC APEX.

While many MMA folk will bellyache and complain about the card or cards with more obscure talent laced throughout, I’ll remain finitely focused on deriving winning opportunity from that fight card.

Remember fight enthusiasts, there was a fifteen-year period I survived (barely) without focusing on any form of fight competition because boxing had become, and still is, rife with filth, greed, avarice and self-interest.

While I am not hesitant to criticize UFC misconduct and self-interest of which there is much, I’m also quite grateful for the fact that they put on some 44 to 47 fight productions each year.

These productions allow me to operate the successful MMA business you are watching me operate each week…

For that I’m surely thankful.

College World Series Releases coming Early June!

 GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming