This week’s UFC 301 will be held in Rio de Janeiro Brazil for a card that features a Brazil against the world theme as Brazilian athletes are featured in all fourteen of the fights presented.
The Brazilians will battle combatants from Peru, Lithuania, Wales, Ukrane, the United States and France among other participating athletes shipping in from various other counties.
Last week favorites realized a 7-6 mark making chalk 111-56-4 this year or 64.9%.
My release of Over 4.5Rds in the main event between Alex Perez and Mateus Nicolau lost making profitability on the year for this column 10-7 +6.23 units.
Time to get back in the win column!
Alexandre Pantoja -185 vs. Steve Erceg +155 Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship
Last week we witnessed a top ranked Brazilian flyweight get KO’d in the second round of the main event.
This week’s main event features flyweight Brazilian champion Alexandre Pantoja who opened -250 against challenger Steve Erceg from Australia +210. Since opening we have witnessed a tsunami of money being dumped on the challenger who now sits at +155.
Erceg 5’8”, is huge for the weight class but inexperienced as he arrives just 3-0 in UFC competition. He’s earned decision victories against two lower ranked opponents before finishing a porcelain jawed journeyman in Matt Schnell in his most recent bout.
Erceg’s ranked tenth in the division and makes his appearance in this headliner based on situational need as the UFC was left without a dance partner for Pantoja after Manuel Kape the original opponent dropped out.
Erceg is a singularly dimensioned power striker. He displays a 77% rate of take down defense though the foes he’s faced in the UFC and prior offered him only pure striking attacks. We’ve yet to see Erceg compete against any real form of grappler/wrestler in his career to date and that all changes Saturday.
In Pantoja we get a Brazilian mixed martial artist who has had to scratch, scrape and claw is way to the title through elite adversaries and a fighter who in his last five bouts has dominated every elite, skilled threat in the division.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown gym featuring numerous, skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his fight arsenal on a daily basis against every form of skilled competition.
Pantoja’s a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate athletes in the division.
Add to this the fact that he competes in front of his Brazilian compatriots Saturday and we have the recipe for a fighter poised to offer his absolute best effort.
It’s my judgement that Pantoja will need to be guarded and evasive early in this fight. He’ll adhere to a strategy of sapping the Australian slugger of his speed, power and ferocity in the first rounds. From there Pantoja will transition into employing his mobility, diversity and experience to out-manuever Erceg, force him against the cage then eventually ground the overmatched Aussie in order to gain top position and dominate.
Pantoja may have to weather early Erceg striking ferocity, but eventually his speed, skill, depth of experience, and championship pedigree will contribute to allowing Pantoja to display his prowess.
It’s my position that Pantoja was a value at the opening number let alone where he is priced currently.
‘Sneak-Teep’ Official Release
Pantoja -185
Total in this UFC 301 main event is 3.5Rds Over -130.
Vitor Petrino -520 vs. Anthony Smith +400 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
Unranked Brazilian athlete Petrino, 11-0 professionally and 4-0 in the UFC will arrive to this fight with the favor of the crowd, tremendous momentum, and the seeming ability to finish opponents based on his previous body of work.
However, scrutinizing his career results leaves me with the impression that Petrino is as bloated a favorite as we have seen in the UFC is several months.
Three of the athletes Petrino has defeated in the UFC are no longer with the organization and the other one is of journeyman caliber.
Sure, Petrino’s shown finishing ability, tremendous explosion, and power but in this one he steps up in class substantially.
Petrino’s advantage is that he is nine years the younger man and competing in his home country but in this tussle against tenth ranked UFC veteran Anthony Smith he will be giving away two inches of height besides a busload of experience and fight aptitude.
Anthony Smith does enter this fight after having lost three of his last four fights but let’s not overlook that those losses were against certified top fifteen caliber players in the division. His victory was against fifteenth ranked Ryan Spann.
Smith, a black belt in BJJ, is also a well-rounded striker who uses all four appendages to apply pressure upon opponents, he can wrestle, grapple and compete wherever this fight transitions to and he arrives in Rio feeling disrespected. Here is another case where I believe a fighter is poised to put up a very polished performance.
This line seems completely out of whack so with that said, I will step out and make a nominal investment on Smith based on principle.
Smith .25u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight 1.5Rds. Over -165
Over -165
This line does not accurately reflect Smith’s fight ability as I look for this one to go to the judges.
Friday mid-day PST the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at www.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!