Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV93 Perez vs. Taira: Flat Taira??

This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for a scheduled thirteen-bout fight card with preliminary action beginning at 4pm PT and the main card following at 7pm PT.

This fight card features eleven fights where the combatants are lightweight (155lbs.) and smaller. Blended finish rates for fights in that size range are: 51.2%. The smaller octagon in use at the APEX may help force confrontation but these smaller, obscure athletes on this production may produce more decision results from this perspective.

Last week I released two ducks as both Thiago Moises, who looked forty- and forty-year-old Jarred Cannonier were both defeated. Moises was never in his bout and looked old, slow, and washed.

Recent rumblings around the UFC surround the suspect stoppage for Cannonier and the potential for an immediate rematch between he and Nassourdine Imavov in France on a card currently scheduled for September 28th. Interesting.

Profitability for my free ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast releases: 9-6-2 +3.41u

Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -180 Flyweight (125lbs) main event

Twenty-four-year-old submission savant Taira ships in from Japan and is currently the face of UFC expansion in that Country. He enters thirteenth ranked in the division at 15-0, a purple belt in BJJ as well he is a gifted grappler who has performed exceptionally well in his five UFC fights.

Taira is getting special treatment as Japan is a fertile expansion area for the organization and the UFC is providing him this opportunity to face an established adversary in Perez who is ranked fifth in the division.

Perez is a formidable challenge for the young Japanese fighter. Though Taira is an inch taller and will hold a five-inch arm reach advantage the fact is that the stringency of UFC adversary Taira has faced pales in comparison to the elite level of opponent Perez has battled.

Those who read my columns understand how much I factor a fighter’s body of work and recent fights Perez has thrived in, specifically against Mohammad Mokaev force me to lean to him in this fight.

On top of whom Perez has competed against he’s been active for this will be his third fight since March 2nd while Taira’s last bout was this past December.

Once this fight begins, Taira’s natural athleticism, speed and length will be the tools he employs to try to bewilder Perez.

Taira’s advances will revolve around grappling and trying to coax Perez into a roll on the mat for Taira’s grappling has been foundational in his past victories and Perez has been submitted in prior bouts.

However, being submitted by experienced world class flyweight BJJ practitioners like Deiveson Figueiredo (now the sixth ranked bantamweight) and current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja carries little shame in my handicapping and Taira is not on that level of ability at this point of his fight career.

Perez for his part, will look to forcefully press the younger man backwards and eventually against the cage and make this fight a toe-to-toe throw down. Perez must establish his dominance early in this fight by showing little to no respect for his younger less experienced foe and employ his wrestling acumen to thwart Taira’s grappling and keep this fight on the feet.

Perez’s strength, savvy and who he has competed against force me to favor him in this spot against a talent in Taira who is stepping up substantially in competition for this opportunity.

In this fight Taira will have to prove to mixed martial arts investors that his grappling and overall fight acumen are complete enough to compete against one of the divisions elites in Perez.

Taira opened -250 to Perez +210 and in this situation, it is likely he will be awarded his PhD. in MMA as I judge the current flow of money coming in on the more established mixed martial artist Perez as justified.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145.

Jesse Armfield -175 vs. Brady Hiestand +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

I try highlight bouts that have the potential to be real bangers and this bantamweight battle sets up to be an edge of your seat brawl.

Hiestand is a willing striker with decent wrestling ability. Fighting out of Washington state he is 7-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC.

He dropped his first UFC fight against a solid fighter in Ricky Turcios then came back to defeat a couple journeyman athletes, so he enters carrying momentum.

One concerning aspect to Hiestand is his inactivity. It has been since April of last year since he stepped into the cage. Time off can indicate potential injury issues, yet time may also allow for fighter development so Hiestand must be regarded as dangerous in this situation and surely ready to fire fresh.

On the other corner of the cage stands Garrett Armfield who opened -220 for this fight and is now a more reasonable -175. Armfield has had the opportunity to compete twice since July of last year. His most recent win was against established commodity Brad Katona who he defeated via impressive decision.

Armfield has solid wrestling as well is aggressive on the feet. He is a finisher as he’s earned eight of his ten professional victories via submission or KO. His sole UFC loss was in his UFC debut which he took on short notice and up a weight against a featherweight fury David Onama.

It is the more complete fighting arsenal of Armfield that makes him the legitimate favorite in this bout. Now supplement his fight prowess with a contracting price and it is my handicap that Garrett Armfield is well positioned to continue his climb up the rankings Saturday against Brady Hiestand in what is more than likely a high-octane decision outcome.

Armfield -175

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -195

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day Friday, it offers listeners my best bets for each UFC card.

Access it each week there is a UFC event at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV80 Dawson vs. Green: King-pin’ned?

After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s fight night production.

Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.

In 2023 Favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.

Grant Dawson -410 vs. Bobby Green +330 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021 realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green’s a purple belt in BJJ but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.

In standing affairs Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his precision accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to out dazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green who is now thirty-seven can slow down resulting in his potentially get caught (see drew Dober) or simply out wrestled.

Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.

Dawson’s faced world class opponents but in this one he’ll be getting a slickster, a ‘shuck and jiving’ fleet footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.

Dawson will be the stoic forward pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.

In this fight we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up thirty-seven-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson reigning damage from the top.

Dawson is an ascending talent in the division and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.

Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -215

Joe Pyfer -455 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent in mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, power striker who has shown great finishing ability while simultaneously developing his well roundedness. Pyfer’s entering competitive high level grappling tourneys which shows us that he aspires compliment those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.

In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win and the thirty-eight-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.

Once the bell rings for this fight I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight and it’s my judgement that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight where I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, experience together make Alhassan a threat against a worthy young warrior that may earn his PhD. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.

Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -215

Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers slight advantage over his straight up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI 2023. It drops with all my final post weigh-in releases Friday around Noon PST.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Lightweight elimination

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s Fight Night offering a main event worthy of PPV status. Two top seven Lightweight contenders headline a fight slate consisting of eleven bouts ranging from Strawweight (115lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.).

Many of the combatants competing on this card may lack headliner status but with one great performance each/any/all could catapult themselves into higher profile bouts.

In the UFC combatants better finish opponents and/or put rear ends in seats (preferably both) in order to be highlighted and inserted into a main event situation.

Last week my release of Canadian Jas Jasudavicious lost which puts results to date 15-15 -0.85u. It’s time for a fourth quarter run!

Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +135 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Polish warrior Gamrot enters this bout sixth ranked in the division and he’s utilized his world class wrestling base as the foundation for his success.

Gamrot’s supplemented his wrestling base with a black belt in BJJ which allows him to apply a forward pressing, heavy pressure grappling attack designed to back opponents up. Forward pressure is foundational to Gamrot success as he relies on grounding opponents then exercising dominance from the mat.

A couple bouts back against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot got caught off guard by a prepared, experienced well-rounded adversary. He next faced 6’3” monster and top ten lightweight power striker Jailin Turner on short notice and was able to earn victory in the most difficult of circumstances. He was focused on getting back into the win column after what he regarded as a learning experience.

Gamrot is a game, focused, experienced and confident athlete entering this bout and it matters little who is put in the cage with him for he’s competed against world class adversaries all possessing diverse, fight ending weaponry.

Sixth ranked Rafael Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with an awareness of wrestling but he’s not near as fluent as is his opponent in that capacity. Rather, Fiziev employs a dynamic Muay Thai striking attack as his fighting base. From there he’s added a blue belt in BJJ to compliment his fighting repertoire.

Fiziev stands as the striking coach at the world-famous ‘Tiger Muay Thai’ gym in Phuket Thailand, so take it from me that his movement, strike defense, strike offense and his tactical abilities are unequaled.

Fiziev enters this fight as Gamrot did against Turner in his last, on the bounce off a loss to Justin Gaethje that in my judgment makes Fiziev extremely dangerous in this spot situationally.

That said, scouring Fiziev’s past opponents leaves me wondering why he has never faced as formidable or at least any formidable wrestling/sambo/grappling based opponents…. Could this have been by design?

Fiziev’s last opponent, Justin Gaethje painted Fiziev’s fence via striking this past March and with the humiliation of that beatdown in the rear view, Fiziev enters this fight with urgency and a singularity of focus.

Fiziev’s striking skills are refined, diverse and more damaging than are Gamrot’s and I must believe it’s Fiziev’s intention to make this a striking competition rather than allowing Gamrot to compete where he is most lethal (and Fiziev untested), against the fence and on the canvas.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch Fiziev address the immediate forward press and wrestling introduction from Gamrot. It will be critical for Gamrot to tax Fiziev and make him effort throughout the full length of the TWENTY-FIVE MINUTE fight for cardio is surely an advantage for Gamrot especially in a grueling, grinding, taxing wrestling competition which Gamrot must make this.

Fiziev is most likely to finish opponents via volume striking/kicking, he must maintain distance in order to launch and land. How he creates and maintains the necessary spacing to strike/kick is foundational to his success in this fight. How he handles Gamrot’s take down offense will also be important to his chances of earning victory.

Fiziev’s youth, his compact physique and how it translates into take down defense, the fact that he’s ‘on the bounce’ seem advantages for him in this bout.

The fact that he has not really competed against a forward pressing vice grip of a wrestling based mixed martial artist has me wondering how well prepared he may be for Gamrot’s twenty-five minutes of wrestling pressure.

For Gamrot, he must systematically break down this deft striker and force him backwards, force him to defend, force him to wrestle and force him to tire. Gamrot owns the sure way to sap the zip from any effective striker with his ability to wrestle for rounds…not minutes.

From a wrestling/grappling and mixed martial arts perspective it’s my belief that Gamrot holds advantage.

For Fiziev, it’s all about keeping this bout on the feet. He must maintain striking distance through movement and counterstriking to discourage Gamrot from rushing into the pocket to engage.

Fiziev’s take down defense will be foundational to his success because he’ll be as awkward and ineffective on the floor as Gamrot will be having to compete solely on the feet.

At the end of the day, I’ll take the wrestling-based athlete as underdog in this situation.

Gamrot +135

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -125

Charles Jourdain -135 vs. Ricardo Ramos +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Ramos from Brazil is well rounded in his fight makeup but specializes is striking and especially spinning kicks and elbows.

Jourdain is a kickboxing specialist at heart and while he sports BJJ skill he prefers to out point opponents with movement, precision strikes and kicks but with little power.

Early in this bout I look for both men to stand and measure the other with striking but as the bout wears on it surely makes sense for Ramos to find a way inside to engage then drag Jourdain down to the mat where Ramos is dangerous and Jourdain is somewhat exposed.

Lean to Ramos

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Over -130

Lean to the over

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast has earned a net 22.80 units in 2023 showing 15% ROI. The podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC card. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Paris Gane vs. Spivak: French toast?

This week the UFC returns to Paris, France after an outstanding fight card from Singapore last week where favorites rolled to another big night realizing a 10-3 result.

Nine athletes on this fight slate are making debuts or in the case of Rhys McKee debuting in his second stint in the UFC so there are but a handful actionable bouts in my judgement. I’ll choose to use the fights populated with debutants as ‘due diligence’ bouts where I collect the data for future consideration.

Favorite’s this year in the UFC stand 213-104-14 or 64.3%.

Michal Oleksiejczuk +100 did in fact weather a furious first few minutes from his opponent last Saturday before KO’ing the brute in the first round. Michal O pushes profitability for the year back into the black!

14-13 +0.15 for 2023

Cyril Gane -160 vs. Sergey Spivak +140 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Gane, ranked number two in the heavyweight rankings has been impressive since hitting the heavyweight scene in 2019. He ran into Jon Jones this past March and was quickly shown that to compete against the elite in the UFC a fighter must be complete physically and mentally.

In his evolution Gane has shown aptitude with his athleticism, skill and stand-up ability and in this bout, we’ll witness how much growth there has been in his ability to defend take downs then once down, display an ability to get back up to his feet for this is the fulcrum to this fight!

A fighter with an elite kick boxing base, Gane is a unique specimen for he moves like a middleweight yet possesses the striking power of a heavyweight delivered with precision, speed, ferocity and intent.

Gane relies on deft footwork, evasive defense and precision volume striking often set up by the employment of damaging kicks to effectively maim opponents. From there compromised foes immobility further allows the nimbler Gane to close in for the stoppage.

A professional fighter since 2018, Gane’s 8-2 in the UFC and finds himself with a great opportunity in this bout to show the fight community that he’s addressed his lack of grappling defense off the heels of that magnificent gag against Jones.

In Spivak, Gane gets a similarly sized wrestling/grappling versed opponent who does have power in his hands but is not a natural striker. Winner of his last three straight and seven of his last eight, Spivak arrives with great momentum and a specific plan laid out by Jon Jones on how to defeat Gane.

Spivak will be focused on pressuring Gane, trying to negate his space, press him backwards then clasp onto him. The floor is ultimately where Spivak wants to take Gane for Spivak’s size and wrestling/grappling aptitude will provide him great advantage there.

Where Gane is quick, precise, athletic and fluid Spivak is premeditated, telegraphing and awkward on the feet. Standing and at distance is the last place Spivak can allow this fight to be contested for he needs to make this a slow dance at the high school prom or he’ll be shredded.

By Grappling Spivak can usurp some of the speed, zip and flash from Gane and in fact this is exactly his path to victory. He must find a way to wear the Frenchman down in order to make him more susceptible to Spivak’s grappling.

Once this fight begins it’s my belief that Gane’s athleticism, speed and focus off that loss will be on display only as long as it takes for Spivak to embrace him.

What remains to be seen is if Gane’s ability to defend a formidable take down attempt has been addressed since the Jones fight and any decent MMA trainer will tell you that the answer to that is a simple ‘NO’.

Spivak, though no Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is a formidable grappler whose immediate fight future lies in his ability to ground Gane in this bout. Will he be able to do so?

Gane opened -215 for this fight so there’s early Spivak interest in the market. Gane is currently priced -165 looks inviting but I’m wary of Spivak in this spot despite the fact that this fight in in Gane’s backyard.

I’ll await props for this bout but must say that this is no layup for Gane.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -260

Points: not available yet

Benoit St. Denis -155 vs. Thiago Moises +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

The fact that neither of these killers is ranked in the UFC’s Lightweight top fifteen seems to be proof that the lightweight division in the UFC is populated with nothing but world class talent.

In Brazilian Moises we get an elite grappler who is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Eight of Moises seventeen professional wins have come via submission, three by KO.

Moises employs his stand-up game to set up his grappling for on the feet he realizes a negative strike differential (-1.5 significant strikes per minute) allowing 3.9 significant strikes per minute while connecting with only 2.4 significant strikes per minute.

Moises has had success against the middle tier of the division but when he steps into competition with top fifteen competition he has faltered. Moises enters this bout off two straight victories and it’s probable that the winner of this battle cracks into that top fifteen of the division.

In southpaw St. Denis we get an athlete that grew up with a father who was a judo instructor and if that was not enough this is a man is a former Navy Seal in the French military so not only can this man impose himself physically, mentally he cannot be overtaken.

St. Denis is a black belt in Judo and a brown belt in BJJ, he strikes with more volume/power than does his opponent but he also realizes a negative significant strike differential of -1.9 significant strikes per minute.

St. Denis is huge for the division and he’ll be much the larger man in the cage Saturday. He holds eleven professional victories of which nine have come via submission. Further, St. Denis has had success against Brazilian athletes with BJJ backgrounds though in this matchup it’s reasonable to believe that St. Denis will need to keep this fight standing.

Once this fight begins it will be Moises quickness and athleticism in competition against the forward pressure and striking aggression of St. Denis. On the feet St. Denis will need to crowd Moises press him against the cage and fight the Brazilian in close until he can soften him up and then attempt to take him out.

For Moises he’ll want to maintain distance in order to kick and counter the aggressive Frenchman on his way into engage for Moises must get this bout to the mat in order to realize success in my judgement.

Moises is durable, crafty and savvy and has only been submitted against current champion Makhachev. Each man will have difficulty finishing the other but the St. Denis size, ferocity and high-pressure pace coupled with a seasoned French crowd are the difference in this fight for me.

This bout opened St. Denis -120 and on Sunday I released St. Denis -125 with the feeling that this price would be higher by the time I submitted this column. St. Denis is currently -145 and rising…

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -135 after opening -155.

Points: not available yet

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast: +20.38u 14% ROI (+128) on the year.

This week the Podcast drops midday Friday as the start time for the fights Saturday is 9am PT

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Nashville Sandhagen vs. Font: Rocky chop!

Justin Gaethje captured the UFC’s BMF title with last week’s dynamic head kick knockout of Justin Poirier.

Favorites ran 7-3-1 on the card and are realizing a 62.7%-win rate in 2023 down a full 5% from last year’s obtuse 67 plus percent!

My release of Justin Poirier ITD +130 leaves me on the wrong end of profitability for the first time since I began writing these columns some five years ago as results are 12-14 <.85u>.

A major correction is on the way.

Cory Sandhagen -265 vs. Rob Font +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked Font steps into this fight on short notice which is as impressive for him as it is that Sandhagen had accepted this bout originally with Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov, a Russian vice grip fell out of the fight due to injury so now Sandhagen faces a stylistically different athlete in Font.

With Font we have a fighter who arrives off of presenting young up and coming bantam Adrien Yanez with his PhD. in MMA as Font dominated the younger man in his last outing.

Font’s a slick boxer with a piston jab, good footwork and extreme durability, a brown belt in BJJ compliments his fight arsenal.

At thirty-six, on short notice and giving up three inches of height in this bout Font will have his work cut out for him Saturday.

Third ranked Sandhagen, a psychology major from Boulder is an accomplished kickboxer with a brown belt in BJJ. He prepares for a different challenge in striker Font than grappler Nurmagomedov but Sandhagen’s should familiar with elite striking adversaries as he’s tussled with the likes of Champion Aljo Sterling, Petr Yan, Song Yadong and other elite talent at the weight class.

Once this bout begins, I look for Sandhagen’s high fight IQ, his extremely well-rounded fight arsenal complete with footwork and cardio to simply be a little too much for a tough, grinding, unrelenting forward pressure striker like Font.

This fight as I handicap it revolves around cardio, striking volume and efficient movement. These are all Sandhagen assets and this is where he holds the advantages.

Sandhagen opened -165 and has shot up in price making playing the props necessary in order to derive value from this fight.

Total in the fight: 4.5Rds. Under -120

Over 3.5 Rds -140 (alternate total DraftKings)

I believe this bout has decision written all over it.

Kyler Phillips -195 vs. Raoni Barcelos +165 bantamweight (135lbs.)

Barcelos is an athletic Braznlian athlete with black belt in BJJ, a solid wrestling base, heavy hands and ill intention. 1-3 in his last 4 fights, Barcelos has displayed an inconsistency that makes it hard to predict what fighter steps into the cage on any particular occasion.

Dangerous to start but uneven after early violence seems to best describe Barcelos.

Phillips arrives off a suspension so he battles inactivity besides the freakishly talented Barcelos.

Phillip’s wrestling base, cardio and durability are all assets but perhaps his biggest weapon is his intelligence. It’s here where I believe these athletes vary most.

Once this fight begins, Phillips will need to navigate through the damage and destruction that Barcelos is sure to offer early. However, once and if Phillips is able to weather that first five minutes of fury then it’s my judgement that he’ll be in position to use his cardio, wrestling and pressure late in order to suck the will from Raoni.

I’ll await props for this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday mid-day provided there is a UFC event. Look for us across all podcast platforms.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov: Like Grant through Ismagulov!

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov!

This week I’m posting ‘Bout Business Podcast UFC releases on the GabLou.com webpage as backup because I am unable to complete the podcast today.

Last week we enjoyed a banner result profiting 4.77u.

2023 profitability stands: 50-47 +14.98u 15% ROI

Both Topuria -330 and Allen -215 delivered on the second legs of parlays. We had each fighter in underdog positions.

I will be very aggressive moving forward in scouring for parlay positions that are set up between a couple of different fight cards. I like how that works for us.

Speaking of that, we lost the Della Madellena vs. Brady bout. Therefore our 1.0u +123 outlay becomes a simple win returning .48u. I’ll use the .48 profit on this card since those wagers are all now graded.

That leaves Covington -110 and Alexa Grasso +195 as our sole future positions along with the Randy Brown/Jalin Turner +111 parlay that will mature next week after that fight.

Ok here’s this week’s releases:

Round 1

Ivana Petrovic -215 vs. Luana Carolina +175

Carolina is a long tall Brazilian striking based fighter who packs little power and produces little by way of volume in her attack. It’s usual that Carolina is fending off incoming pressure from wrestlers/grapplers who understand that the way to defeat Carolina is to get her on her back where she is unable to get up or defend herself.

In debuting fighter Ivana Petrovic we have the exact form of fight style that is designed to give Carolina fits. In fact, I really view this as a set up fight designed to make Petrovic look good.

Petrovic -215/Moreno -195 +121 1u

Leg 2 of the parlay is Brandon Moreno -195. Moreno is on next week’s fight card.

Round 2:

Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 vs. Kevin Lee +180

Rinat’s an authentic Russian vice grip, but he’s stepping up in class for this bout. Kevin Lee’s going to be a desperate fighter who knows he’s been set in with someone the organization wants to test him with.

This is a fight that in his first stint in the UFC would be too much for lee at 170lbs. Now, I don’t think it is, in fact, I like Lee in this spot.

Lee +180 .6u

Lee decision +340 .4u

Round 3

Ismael Bonfin -320 vs. Benoit St. Denis +260

Bonfin is an explosive Brazilian hand grenade. He’s short, stocky, explosive, powerful and primarily a striker. In this one St. Denis, who is getting appropriate credit for showing toughness in a previous bout against Elizeo dos Santos is NOT getting enough credit for his power striking, size, his grappling advantage and the way he enters this bout off two UFC wins.

Key to this fight will be St. Denis surviving the first round then being able to inflict his size and grappling onto the inflated but most dangerous Bonfin brother.

St. Denis +260 .5u

Round 4

Morales -260 vs. Max Griffin +215

Morales a tall, powerful, twenty-year old Ecuadorian enters this fight looking to keep his momentum rolling. Morales coming off contender series, has two first round finishes entering this his third UFC bout.

Morales steps up in this fight, one that I view similarly to the Rinat and Lee bout.

Morales has shown great talent and ability but, in a situation, where he steps up in class considerably against a fighter as capable as Griffin forces me to have to make Mr. Morales prove to me that he is up for this much increase in the ability of his foe.

Griffin is pissed and he took his anger on this matchup (he saw this match-up as it is, a potential set-up fight for Morales) in training. He’s focused on making sure the UFC understands his abilities after the results of this bout are completed.

I like Griffin here because I believe I’ll get his absolute best effort and he’s the more versed well-rounded athlete and I believe we’ll see some wrestling from him.

Griffin +215 .5u

Round 5

Damir Ismagulov -105 vs. Grand Dawson -115

I released Dawson +110 earlier in the week when I could see his underdog position melting away.

Ismagulov lost his last bout to Tsarukyan then retired because of health in family issues. A month later, he’s back. Bad sign as far as I am concerned. Then Ismagulov claimed he did not train for Tsarukyan but he has for this fight.

I think Ismagulov is showing some slow regression in his quickness, his crispness in the cage and his ability to defend aggressive forward pressing wrestlers especially.

In Grant Dawson we get an ascending fighter who is displaying great progress with his relationship with Mike Brown and Florida’s ATT.

Dawson is still growing; he’s an unrelenting pressing wrestling grappling machine and I believe he will be able to smother Ismagulov’s space (Ismagulov so wants to be in striking battles) then clasp onto the Russian in order to force this fight to the floor where from top position Dawson can reign damage.

Dawson +110 1u

as released earlier this week

Thank for reading Fight Enthusiasts. Next week we’ll be back on the airwaves but it sure is nice to have the webpage back!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

Stanley Cup Final Las Vegas vs. Florida: Southern accents

Stanley Cup Final Game 1 releases:

I’m posting early as I’m out of town and at any time my finely set schedule could get blown up.

I don’t believe Bobrovsky can hold form after nine days off.

It’s more than opinion, it’s what I’ve witnessed over some 45 years of profiting off of puck passion.

When a team enters a series with 4 or less days off, their legs, minds and body’s only know the frenetic pace of playoff puck. AND

when a team has more than 7 days of rest and competes against a team with 4 days or less the team with the abundant rest usually/often looks slow, lethargic and vulnerable in game 1.

That’s exactly what I expect to see tonight. Here’s the wagers…

Tkachuk +750 Conn Smythe 

only future wager remaining into the Final series.

Playoff Series Props; game X/series double:

Golden Knights to win game 1/Florida to win series +400 1u

Game 1 straight:

Golden Knights -130 1u outlay

Player Award:

Jonathan Marchessault, Conn Smythe +700 .5u

 

Today’s College World Series Saturday Regional releases available. Hit the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this webpage for more information…

UFC LV74 releases:

Lins +115

Lacerda -150/Caceres -175 parlay +162

Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos +100

Karine Silva -145

released as future in earlier podcast

Kara-France +105

Kara-France awards Albazi his PhD. in MMA?

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming