After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s fight night production.
Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.
In 2023 Favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.
Grant Dawson -410 vs. Bobby Green +330 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event
Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021 realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green’s a purple belt in BJJ but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.
In standing affairs Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his precision accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to out dazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green who is now thirty-seven can slow down resulting in his potentially get caught (see drew Dober) or simply out wrestled.
Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.
Dawson’s faced world class opponents but in this one he’ll be getting a slickster, a ‘shuck and jiving’ fleet footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.
Dawson will be the stoic forward pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.
In this fight we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up thirty-seven-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson reigning damage from the top.
Dawson is an ascending talent in the division and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.
Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -215
Joe Pyfer -455 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent in mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, power striker who has shown great finishing ability while simultaneously developing his well roundedness. Pyfer’s entering competitive high level grappling tourneys which shows us that he aspires compliment those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.
In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win and the thirty-eight-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.
Once the bell rings for this fight I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight and it’s my judgement that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight where I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, experience together make Alhassan a threat against a worthy young warrior that may earn his PhD. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.
Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -215
Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers slight advantage over his straight up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI 2023. It drops with all my final post weigh-in releases Friday around Noon PST.
Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading