Riyadh, Saudi Arabia hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night with a main event that was recently changed as original participant Kamzat Chimaev is quite ill and unable to compete. Robert Whittaker will now face Russian Ikram Aliskerov who was scheduled to fight in the co main event on last week’s APEX event.
*Special note that this fight card kicks off EARLY in the States with preliminary action beginning at 9am PT and the main card starts at Noon PT.
I credit the UFC for their tenacity as they’re deft at dealing with fighter changes, suspensions, injuries, and other oddities as they continue to present viable ten to fourteen fight productions on an almost weekly basis.
Last week a rare favorite release lost as Garret Armfield looked potent early in his fight against Brady Heistand then lost energy as Heistand fought the best two rounds of his career and finally submitted Armfield in the third round.
Digital results this year: 14-12 +4.98u
Let’s look at a couple of the fights from Riyadh.
Robert Whittaker -145 vs. Ikram Aliskerov +124 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Aliskerov, 15-1 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC arrives at this main event with two UFC bouts under his belt. He is shy on UFC experience, steps up in class of opponent substantially and must travel across the world to make this fight. Aliskerov’s sole professional loss was years ago to the aforementioned Chimaev.
In this matchup, he transitions from competing against a Brazilian grappling-based foe who had not competed since late in 2021 to the number three ranked Middleweight and former champion of the division who has faced elite adversaries through his twelve years competing in the UFC.
Compoundng the complexity of this fight, Aliskerov must travel around the globe and once again undertake an aggressive weight cut as he was called off last week’s bout just days prior to the event.
Aliskerov is a remarkably similar opponent to Chimaev for Whittaker.
He employs solid striking behind an aggressive forward pressing wrestling/grappling attack.
For Whittaker, he will have little to alter in this brief time frame to effectively prepare for this new opponent.
The same cannot be said for Aliskerov who gains great exposure from fighting Whittaker but now must step into the octagon and fight an elite, well-rounded finisher in a scheduled five round fight when he was training for three.
Once the bell for round one clangs, I see Aliskerov attempting to press Whittaker backwards and force him to defend Aliskerov’s wrestling.
His goal will be to sap the energy from Whittaker by pressing him and forcing him to defend the wrestling advances.
Whittaker however has been in the cage with every form of diverse fighter in his career and that includes elite wrestling talents. He will be unfazed and prepared for Aliskerov’s aggressive approach, his tactics, and his southpaw stance.
Whittaker opened -180 for this fight, a number I regarded as fair in this situation if not giving too much respect to Aliskerov. Immediately money came to Aliskerov, which was stunning to be honest.
Eventually this line dropped to Whittaker -135 appeared at which time buyback (much of it from ‘Bout Business Podcast followers) arrived on the former champion.
Currently the number stands Whittaker -148 which in my judgement is still an extremely attractive price on Whittaker.
I find it difficult to believe that Aliskerov, preparing for a totally different style of athlete than Whittaker and an athlete that must now travel across the globe to compete in a scheduled five round fight when he was prepared for three rounds is appropriately prepared mentally and physically to handle this situation successfully.
What Aliskerov is doing by taking this fight is endearing himself to the UFC for saving this main event in Riyadh. No matter the outcome Saturday, Aliskerov has endeared himself to the UFC as a company player and he will be taken care of by the UFC no matter this fight’s outcome in the form of future opportunities to shine.
Whittaker -145
This fight’s total is 2.5 Rds. Over -160
Lean Over
Sergei Pavlovich -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185 Heavyweight (265lbs) co main event
Riyadh gets a couple of top five ranked Russian heavyweights who oh by the way, have trained together in its co main event.
Fifth ranked and veteran UFC athlete Volkov, a black belt in Tsu Shin Gen, a brown belt in Kyokushin Karate and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has fought in numerous organizations prior to arriving to the UFC.
In UFC competition Volkov has amassed an 11-4 record and has won his last three straight via finish after a loss to Tom Aspinal in March of 2022.
Volkov is 6’7” and prefers to keep his fights standing and badger foes by utilizing his striking skills which are supplemented by the fact that he almost always holds height and reach advantages over opponents.
Volkov can be vulnerable against determined, forceful grappler/wrestlers who are adamant about penetrating Volkov’s distance striking in order to gain pocket position to clasp onto him then try to force the giant against the cage or down to the mat where is size, length and striking are muted.
Enter Sergei Pavlovich, an 18-2 Greco-Roman grappling-based athlete who is ultra-aggressive, explosive, powerful and determined to ground foes, gain top position then reign damage upon them.
Pavlovich won five straight heavyweight battles prior to being dominated in his last fight by Tom Aspinall. In that fight, Pavlovich was exposed as he was unable to cope with Aspinall’s mental toughness, nimble feet, speed, and power.
It is my judgement that this heavyweight outcome will be determined by which man can manipulate the fight to his favor.
Volkov must employ a boxing/kickboxing approach and blister the incoming Pavlovich with elbows, knee’s and strikes.
Pavlovich will work to gain inside position on Volkov. From there he may negate Volkov’s striking/kicking ability and then render his own attack by unleashing furious body and head strikes.
I find Pavlovich to be a typical front running fighter. He will try to finish Volkov early in this fight. However, if he is unable to and this fight transitions into the second round his abundance of physical output compromises his mental toughness as he fatigues and fatigues quickly in that bulky frame.
The Volkov plan revolves around space, distance, and IQ. He must be able to weather those furious first few minutes then use his guile to force Pavlovich to defend and back up where Volkov can utilize his size and length to damage the barrel-chested power striker.
It’s my view that Volkov’s experience, cardio, length, and effective striking can be synchronized to produce a victory but only after surviving what may be a wicked first few minutes of output from Pavlovich.
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -130
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop early Friday morning Pacific time as weigh-ins for this card take place Thursday evening 11pm PT.
Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading!